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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Efficient Contingency Analysis in Power Systems via Network Trigger Nodes

Modeling failure dynamics within a power system is a complex and challenging process due to multiple inter-dependencies and convoluted inter-domain relationships. Subject matter experts (SMEs) are interested in understanding these failure dynamics for reducing the impact from future disasters (i.e., losses or failures of power system components, such as transmission lines). Contingency analysis (CA) tools enable such ’what-if’ scenario analyses to evaluate the impacts on the power system. Analyzing all possible contingencies among N system components can be computationally expensive. An important step for performing CA is identifying a set of k ‘trigger’ components, which when failed initially can significantly impact the overall system by causing multiple failures. Currently SMEs focus on identifying these trigger components by running expensive simulations on all possible subsets, which quickly becomes infeasible. Hence finding a relevant set of trigger components (contingencies) rapidly to enable efficient and useful CA is crucial.In a collaboration between computer scientists and power system experts, we propose an efficient method for performing CA by exploiting network inter-dependencies in power system components. First, we construct a network with multiple electric grid infrastructure components and dependencies as connections among them. We reformulate the problem of finding a set of trigger components as a problem of identifying critical nodes in the network, which can cascade power failures through connected nodes and cause significant damage to the network. To guide the practical CA tools, we develop a network-based model with a probabilistic edge-weights setup using intricate domain rules. Then we conduct an empirical study on real power system data in the US for both regional and national levels. Firstly, we use power system datasets for the US to create a national-scale domain-driven model. Secondly, we demonstrate that network-based model outperforms the outputs from a real CA tool and show on average 25 × improved selection of contingencies, thereby showcasing practical benefits to the power experts.

Tabassum, Anika↗
NASA NTRS1992

Remote maintenance monitoring system

A remote maintenance monitoring system retrofits to a given hardware device with a sensor implant which gathers and captures failure data from the hardware device, without interfering with its operation. Failure data is continuously obtained from predetermined critical points within the hardware device, and is analyzed with a diagnostic expert system, which isolates failure origin to a particular component within the hardware device. For example, monitoring of a computer-based device may include monitoring of parity error data therefrom, as well as monitoring power supply fluctuations therein, so that parity error and power supply anomaly data may be used to trace the failure origin to a particular plane or power supply within the computer-based device. A plurality of sensor implants may be rerofit to corresponding plural devices comprising a distributed large-scale system. Transparent interface of the sensors to the devices precludes operative interference with the distributed network. Retrofit capability of the sensors permits monitoring of even older devices having no built-in testing technology. Continuous real time monitoring of a distributed network of such devices, coupled with diagnostic expert system analysis thereof, permits capture and analysis of even intermittent failures, thereby facilitating maintenance of the monitored large-scale system.

Simpkins, Lorenz G.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Probabilistic design applications for the Space Transportation Main Engines

All of the current rocket engine designs are based on deterministic design analysis methods. The most recently designed engine, Space Shuttle Main Engines (SSME), was designed and developed using these techniques in the 1970's and 80's. The Space Transportation Main Engine (STME) design objective is to use a robust design methodology and to pro-actively assess and improve the design during the design process. The design approach is a combination of the traditional deterministic methodologies and recently developed probabilistic methodologies. The designer must use a more rigorous structural criteria, conduct pro-active reliability assessments (reliability allocations, failure modes and effects analysis, reliability growth studies, and design reliability assessment), use a damage tolerant design philosophy and perform probabilistic analyses. Rigorous application of this structured methodology will develop a better engine product.

Ohara, Kevin↗
DOE OSTI2024

Incidence and predictors of loss to follow-up among adult patients receiving antiretroviral therapy in Central Ethiopia: a multi-center retrospective cohort study

Background: Globally, loss to follow-up (LTFU) remains a significant public health concern despite the rapid expansion of antiretroviral medication programs. It is a significant cause of treatment failure and threatens the enhancement of HIV treatment outcomes among patients on antiretroviral therapy (ART). However, there is a paucity of evidence on its incidence and predictors in Ethiopia. Thus, this study aimed to examine the incidence and predictors of LTFU among adult HIV patients receiving ART at hospitals in Central Ethiopia. Methods: A multi-centered facility-based retrospective cohort study was conducted among 432 randomly selected adult patients who received antiretroviral therapy. Data were entered into EpiData version 3.1 and exported to Stata version 14 for analysis. The Kaplan–Meier failure function was employed to determine the overall failure estimates, and the log-rank test was used to compare the probability of failure among the different categories of variables. The Cox proportional hazard model was used to identify independent predictors of LTFU. Results: Overall, 172 (39.8%) study participants were lost to follow-up over the 10-year follow-up period with an incidence rate of 8.12 (95% CI: 7.11, 9.09) per 1,000 person-months. Undisclosed HIV status (AHR: 1.96, 95% CI: 1.14, 3.36), not able to work (AHR: 1.84, 95% CI: 1.13, 2.22), opportunistic infections (AHR: 3.13, 95% CI: 2.17, 4.52), CD4 < 200 cell/mL (AHR: 1.95, 95% CI: 1.18, 3.21), not receiving isoniazid preventive therapy (IPT) (AHR: 2.57, 95% CI: 1.62, 4.06), not participating in clubs (AHR: 1.68, 95% CI: 1.10, 2.22), side effects of drugs (AHR: 1.44, 95% CI: 1.02, 2.04), and high viral load (AHR: 3.15, 95% CI: 1.81, 5.47) were identified as significant predictors of loss to follow-up. Conclusion: In this study, the incidence of LTFU was high. The focus should be on creating awareness and prevention programs that aim to reduce loss to follow-up by continuing counseling, especially on the negative effects of loss to follow-up and the benefits of ART care.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Safety Analysis for Accident-Tolerant Fuels with Increased Enrichment and Extended Burnup

The ERP research and development efforts in FY22 focused on the safety analysis of ATF with increased enrichment and extended burnup to provide scientific knowledge of the ATF fuel performance, failure mechanism and source term analysis during severe accident of the NPP. FeCrAl clad ATF was selected as basis of the reactor fuel. An optimized equilibrium cycle was developed for 24-months extended burnup operation. A 4-loop PWR model under loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA) was assessed and the behavior of the major source term from failed ATF has been analyzed. The result showed that grace to enhanced mechanical characteristics of ATF, the fuel failure starts up to 200~500 seconds later than conventional Zr clad fuel. This time gives sufficient buffer until low pressure safety injection (LPSI) of the emergency core cooling system (ECCS) restarted by the operator which reduces fuel fragmentation, relocation and dispersal (FFRD). As a consequence, the total amount of major radioactive materials released from FeCrAl clad fuel into the reactor containment was found up to three times less compare to Zr clad fuel.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
NASA NTRS1995

Alternative Computational Approaches for Probalistic Fatigue Analysis

The feasibility is discussed for alternative methods of direct Monte Carlo simulation for failure probability computations. First and second order reliability methods are used for fatigue crack growth and low cycle fatigue structural failure modes to illustrate typical problems.

fatigue analysis failure models simulation↗
NASA NTRS2016

Multiscale Static Analysis of Notched and Unnotched Laminates Using the Generalized Method of Cells

The generalized method of cells (GMC) is demonstrated to be a viable micromechanics tool for predicting the deformation and failure response of laminated composites, with and without notches, subjected to tensile and compressive static loading. Given the axial [0], transverse [90], and shear [+45/-45] response of a carbon/epoxy (IM7/977-3) system, the unnotched and notched behavior of three multidirectional layups (Layup 1: [0,45,90,-45](sub 2S), Layup 2: [0,60,0](sub 3S), and Layup 3: [30,60,90,-30, -60](sub 2S)) are predicted under both tensile and compressive static loading. Matrix nonlinearity is modeled in two ways. The first assumes all nonlinearity is due to anisotropic progressive damage of the matrix only, which is modeled, using the multiaxial mixed-mode continuum damage model (MMCDM) within GMC. The second utilizes matrix plasticity coupled with brittle final failure based on the maximum principle strain criteria to account for matrix nonlinearity and failure within the Finite Element Analysis--Micromechanics Analysis Code (FEAMAC) software multiscale framework. Both MMCDM and plasticity models incorporate brittle strain- and stress-based failure criteria for the fiber. Upon satisfaction of these criteria, the fiber properties are immediately reduced to a nominal value. The constitutive response for each constituent (fiber and matrix) is characterized using a combination of vendor data and the axial, transverse, and shear responses of unnotched laminates. Then, the capability of the multiscale methodology is assessed by performing blind predictions of the mentioned notched and unnotched composite laminates response under tensile and compressive loading. Tabulated data along with the detailed results (i.e., stress-strain curves as well as damage evolution states at various ratios of strain to failure) for all laminates are presented.

GMC↗
NASA NTRS2010

Probabilistic Design Analysis (PDA) Approach to Determine the Probability of Cross-System Failures for a Space Launch Vehicle

Quantifying the probability of significant launch vehicle failure scenarios for a given design, while still in the design process, is critical to mission success and to the safety of the astronauts. Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is chosen from many system safety and reliability tools to verify the loss of mission (LOM) and loss of crew (LOC) requirements set by the NASA Program Office. To support the integrated vehicle PRA, probabilistic design analysis (PDA) models are developed by using vehicle design and operation data to better quantify failure probabilities and to better understand the characteristics of a failure and its outcome. This PDA approach uses a physics-based model to describe the system behavior and response for a given failure scenario. Each driving parameter in the model is treated as a random variable with a distribution function. Monte Carlo simulation is used to perform probabilistic calculations to statistically obtain the failure probability. Sensitivity analyses are performed to show how input parameters affect the predicted failure probability, providing insight for potential design improvements to mitigate the risk. The paper discusses the application of the PDA approach in determining the probability of failure for two scenarios from the NASA Ares I project

Shih, Ann T.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Fault localization in a microfabricated surface ion trap using diamond nitrogen-vacancy center magnetometry

Here, as quantum computing hardware becomes more complex with ongoing design innovations and growing capabilities, the quantum computing community needs increasingly powerful techniques for fabrication failure root-cause analysis. This is especially true for trapped-ion quantum computing. As trapped-ion quantum computing aims to scale to thousands of ions, the electrode numbers are growing to several hundred, with likely integrated photonic components also adding to the electrical and fabrication complexity, making faults even harder to locate. In this work, we used a high-resolution quantum magnetic imaging technique, based on nitrogen-vacancy centers in diamond, to investigate short-circuit faults in an ion trap chip. We imaged currents from these short-circuit faults to ground and compared them to intentionally created faults, finding that the root cause of the faults was failures in the on-chip trench capacitors. This work, where we exploited the performance advantages of a quantum magnetic sensing technique to troubleshoot a piece of quantum computing hardware, is a unique example of the evolving synergy between emerging quantum technologies to achieve capabilities that were previously inaccessible.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
NASA NTRS1985

Viscoelastic behavior and lifetime (durability) predictions

A method for lifetime or durability predictions for laminated fiber reinforced plastics is given. The procedure is similar to but not the same as the well known time-temperature-superposition principle for polymers. The method is better described as an analytical adaptation of time-stress-super-position methods. The analytical constitutive modeling is based upon a nonlinear viscoelastic constitutive model developed by Schapery. Time dependent failure models are discussed and are related to the constitutive models. Finally, results of an incremental lamination analysis using the constitutive and failure model are compared to experimental results. Favorable results between theory and predictions are presented using data from creep tests of about two months duration.

Brinson, R. F.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Simulation of a Full-Scale Crash Test of a Fokker F28 Fellowship Aircraft

In June 2019, a full-scale crash test of a Fokker F28 Fellowship aircraft was conducted as part of a joint National Aeronautics and Space Administration/Federal Aviation Administration (NASA/FAA) project to investigate the performance of transport aircraft under realistic crash conditions. The test objectives were to provide data for assessment of transport aircraft crash worthiness and to generate test data for model validation. The test article was loaded with transport aircraft seats in a 3+2 configuration. A total of 24 instrumented Anthropomorphic Test Devices (ATDs) were placed in the seats and restrained. The test article weighed 33,306-lb. and, during the crash test, impacted a 2-ft. high soil bed at 65.3-ft/s forward and 31.8-ft/s vertical velocity. The full-scale crash test was simulated using the commercial nonlinear explicit transient dynamic finite element code, LSDYNA®. This paper will provide a description of the test article and the crash test conditions, document the F28 full-scale model development, and present test-analysis comparisons in several categories including inertial properties, kinematic responses, structural acceleration responses, and airframe deformation and failure. In addition, test-analysis results will be quantified based on the International Organization for Standardization (ISO) 16250 curve comparison methodology.

Jackson, Karen E.↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Effect of Cell Geometry and Trigger Method on the Risks Associated with Thermal Runaway of Lithium-Ion Batteries

Consideration of thermal runaway heat output variability is paramount for the development of safe lithium-ion battery assemblies. This study utilizes data gathered from fractional thermal runaway calorimetry (FTRC) experiments to conduct a comparative analysis of thermal runaway heat output for three cell formats (18650, 21700, and 33600) as a function of trigger method (heaters, internal short-circuiting device, and nail penetration). The analysis is based on comparisons for the calculated total energy yield, fractional energy yield, heat rate, and heat flux. This study reveals that nail penetration tends to result in higher thermal runaway heat output for larger cells (21700 & 33600); these experiments also tended to result in higher fractions of the total energy being released through the cell body. The smaller cells (18650) did not appear to have significant variation in heat output as a function of trigger method. This finding suggests that, for this cell type, worst-case scenario heat output could be achievable in assembly level testing regardless of the utilized trigger method. This study also demonstrates successful translation of FTRC results, as recorded in the Battery Failure Databank, into meaningful analysis that breaks down the influence of specific conditions on thermal runaway heat output.

calorimetry↗
NASA NTRS2006

NASA Taxonomies for Searching Problem Reports and FMEAs

Many types of hazard and risk analyses are used during the life cycle of complex systems, including Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA), Hazard Analysis, Fault Tree and Event Tree Analysis, Probabilistic Risk Assessment, Reliability Analysis and analysis of Problem Reporting and Corrective Action (PRACA) databases. The success of these methods depends on the availability of input data and the analysts knowledge. Standard nomenclature can increase the reusability of hazard, risk and problem data. When nomenclature in the source texts is not standard, taxonomies with mapping words (sets of rough synonyms) can be combined with semantic search to identify items and tag them with metadata based on a rich standard nomenclature. Semantic search uses word meanings in the context of parsed phrases to find matches. The NASA taxonomies provide the word meanings. Spacecraft taxonomies and ontologies (generalization hierarchies with attributes and relationships, based on terms meanings) are being developed for types of subsystems, functions, entities, hazards and failures. The ontologies are broad and general, covering hardware, software and human systems. Semantic search of Space Station texts was used to validate and extend the taxonomies. The taxonomies have also been used to extract system connectivity (interaction) models and functions from requirements text. Now the Reconciler semantic search tool and the taxonomies are being applied to improve search in the Space Shuttle PRACA database, to discover recurring patterns of failure. Usual methods of string search and keyword search fall short because the entries are terse and have numerous shortcuts (irregular abbreviations, nonstandard acronyms, cryptic codes) and modifier words cannot be used in sentence context to refine the search. The limited and fixed FMEA categories associated with the entries do not make the fine distinctions needed in the search. The approach assigns PRACA report titles to problem classes in the taxonomy. Each ontology class includes mapping words - near-synonyms naming different manifestations of that problem class. The mapping words for Problems, Entities and Functions are converted to a canonical form plus any of a small set of modifier words (e.g. non-uniformity NOT + UNIFORM.) The report titles are parsed as sentences if possible, or treated as a flat sequence of word tokens if parsing fails. When canonical forms in the title match mapping words, the PRACA entry is associated with the corresponding Problem, Entity or Function in the ontology. The user can search for types of failures associated with types of equipment, clustering by type of problem (e.g., all bearings found with problems of being uneven: rough, irregular, gritty ). The results could also be used for tagging PRACA report entries with rich metadata. This approach could also be applied to searching and tagging failure modes, failure effects and mitigations in FMEAs. In the pilot work, parsing 52K+ truncated titles (the test cases that were available), has resulted in identification of both a type of equipment and type of problem in about 75% of the cases. The results are displayed in a manner analogous to Google search results. The effort has also led to the enrichment of the taxonomy, adding some new categories and many new mapping words. Further work would make enhancements that have been identified for improving the clustering and further reducing the false alarm rate. (In searching for recurring problems, good clustering is more important than reducing false alarms). Searching complete PRACA reports should lead to immediate improvement.

Malin, Jane T.↗
DOE OSTI1995

Nuclear Safety [Vol. 36, No. 1, January-June 1995]

Nuclear Safety is a journal that covers significant issues in the field of nuclear safety. Its primary scope is safety in the design, construction, operation, and decommissioning of nuclear power reactors worldwide and the research and analysis activities that promote this goal, but it also encompasses the safety aspects of the entire nuclear fuel cycle, including fuel fabrication, spent-fuel processing and handling, and nuclear waste disposal, the handling of fissionable materials and radioisotopes, and the environmental effects of all these activities. Table of Contents for this issue follows. THE CHORNOBYL ACCIDENT: 1 The Chornobyl Accident Revisited, Part II: The State of the Nuclear Fuel Located Within the Chornobyl Sarcophagus, A A. Borovoi and A. R. Sich; GENERAL SAFETY CONSIDERATIONS: 33 Nuclear Power Safety in Central and Eastern Europe, R. Wilson; 46 Safety of Nuclear Power Reactors in the Former Eastern European Countries, S. Chakraborty; 53 Technical Note: On the Definition of Common-Cause Failures, H. Paula; ACCIDENT ANALYSIS: 58 Modeling and Analysis of Core-Debris Recriticality During Hypothetical Severe Accidents in the Advanced Neutron Source Reactor, S.-H. Kim, V. Georgevich, D. B. Simpson, C. O. Slater, and R. P. Taleyarkhan; 68 Ignitability of Hydrogen/Oxygen/Diluent Mixtures in the Presence of Hot Surfaces, R. K. Kumar and G. W. Koroll; 94 Coupled RELAP5 and CONTAIN Accident Analysis Using PVM, K. A. Smith, A. J. Baratta, and G. E. Robinson; CONTROL AND INSTRUMENTATION: 109 Application of Fuzzy Logic in Nuclear Reactor Control Part I: An Assessment of State-of-the-Art, A. S. Heger, N. K. Alang-Rashid, and M. Jamshidi; DESIGN FEATURES: 122 Twenty-Third DOE/NRC Nuclear Air-Cleaning and Treatment Conference, R. R. Bellamy, J. J. Hayes, and M. W. First; ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS: 135 Atmospheric Dispersion and the Radiological Consequences of Normal Airborne Effluents from a Nuclear Power Plant, D. Fang, C. Z. Sun, and L. Yang; 142 Calculation of Distribution Coefficients for Radionuclides in Soils and Sediments, I. Puigdomenech and U. Bergstrom: OPERATING EXPERIENCES: 155 Reactor Shutdown Experience, Compiled by J. W. Cletcher; U.S. NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION INFORMATION AND ANALYSES: 158 Operating Experience Feedback Report—Reliability of Safety-Related Steam Turbine-Driven Standby Pumps Used in U.S. Commercial Nuclear Power Plants, J. R. Boardman; 166 Turbine Building Hazards, H. L Ornstein; RECENT DEVELOPMENTS: 169 Reports, Standards, and Safety Guides, D. S. Queener; 175 Proposed Rule Changes as of Dec. 31,1994; ANNOUNCEMENTS: 32 Harvard School of Public Health In-Place Filter Testing Workshop; 134 International Conference on Advances in the Operational Safety of Nuclear Power Plants; 193 30th Tennessee Industries Week; 193 DOE Technical Standards Program 1995 Workshop; 194 Multiphase Flow Experiments and Instrumentation; 180 The Authors; 185 Indexes to Nuclear Safety, Volumes 34 and 35.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Male Runners With Lower Energy Availability Have Impaired Skeletal Integrity Compared to Nonathletes

Abstract Context Female athletes, particularly runners, with insufficient caloric intake for their energy expenditure [low energy availability (EA) or relative energy deficiency] are at risk for impaired skeletal integrity. Data are lacking in male runners. Objective To determine whether male runners at risk for energy deficit have impaired bone mineral density (BMD), microarchitecture, and estimated strength. Design Cross-sectional. Setting Clinical research center. Participants 39 men (20 runners, 19 controls), ages 16–30 years. Main Outcome Measures Areal BMD (dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry); tibia and radius volumetric BMD and microarchitecture (high-resolution peripheral quantitative computed tomography); failure load (microfinite element analysis); serum testosterone, estradiol, leptin; energy availability. Results Mean age (24.5 ± 3.8 y), lean mass, testosterone, and estradiol levels were similar; body mass index, percent fat mass, leptin, and lumbar spine BMD Z-score (−1.4 ± 0.8 vs −0.8 ± 0.8) lower (P < .05); and calcium intake and running mileage higher (P ≤ .01) in runners vs controls. Runners with EA <median had lower lumbar spine (−1.5 ± 0.7, P = .028), while runners with EA ≥median had higher hip (0.3 ± 0.7 vs −0.4 ± 0.5, P = .002), BMD Z-scores vs controls. After adjusting for calcium intake and running mileage, runners with EA <median had lower mean tibial total and trabecular volumetric BMD, trabecular bone volume fraction, cortical porosity, and apparent modulus vs controls (P < .05). Appendicular lean mass and serum estradiol (R ≥ 0.45, P ≤ .046), but not testosterone, were positively associated with tibial failure load among runners. Conclusions Despite weight-bearing activity, skeletal integrity is impaired in male runners with lower caloric intake relative to exercise energy expenditure, which may increase bone stress injury risk. Lower estradiol and lean mass are associated with lower tibial strength in runners.

Haines, Melanie S. (ORCID:0000000310024754)↗
NASA NTRS1987

Analysis of kink band formation under compression

The kink band formation in unidirectional composites under compression is analyzed in the present paper. The kinematics of kink band formation is described in terms of a deformation tensor. Equilibrium conditions are then applied to relate the compression load to the deformation of fibers. Since the in situ shear behavior of the matrix resin is not known, an analysis-experiment correlation is used to find the shear failure strain in the kink band. The present analysis thus elucidates the mechanisms and identifies the controlling parameters, of compression failure.

Hahn, H. Thomas↗
DOE OSTI2025

Adapting Traditional Hazards Analysis Methods to Address Cyber Risks

Traditional hazards analysis (HA) methods, originally developed to address physical and operational risks, often fall short when it comes to identifying and mitigating cyber threats. These cyber threats pose unique and evolving risks to critical infrastructure and industrial control systems (ICS). This report explores the integration of Cyber-Informed Engineering (CIE) principles into existing HA methods to enhance their ability to address cyber-induced risks. CIE provides organizations with a practical, cost-effective approach to closing the gap between traditional HA methods and the need for cyber risk mitigation. By leveraging existing safety processes and controls, CIE allows users to examine and mitigate cyber vulnerabilities without overhauling existing HA methods. This report identifies areas where HA and CIE naturally align and where their approaches diverge. It emphasizes how CIE principles can be used to adapt HA methods, broadening their scope to include cyber risks and enabling the mitigation of cyber- induced impacts alongside traditional hazards and failure scenarios. This report examines how CIE can be applied across various HA methods—such as Hazard and Operability Studies (HAZOP), Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA), Systems-Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA), Hazard and Consequence Analysis for Digital Systems (HAZCADS), and Layers of Protection Analysis (LOPA). It provides strategies for integrating CIE to strengthen the identification, assessment, and mitigation of cyber-induced risks. The findings offer a structured entry point for organizations to embed CIE concepts into hazards and safety analyses, as well as broader engineering processes, ultimately supporting the design and operation of a more resilient infrastructure.

42 ENGINEERING↗