Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “error estimation and analysis”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,315 records · Page 73

The tip of the red giant branch as a distance indicator for resolved galaxies. 2: Computer simulations

Based on both empirical data for the nearby galaxies, and on computer simulations, we show that measuring the position of the tip of the first-ascent red-giant branch provides a means of obtaining the distances to nearby galaxies with a precision and accuracy comparable to using Cepheids and/or RR Lyrae variables. We present an analysis of synthetic I vs (V-I) color magnitude diagrams of Population 2 systems to investigate the use of the observed discontinuity in the I-band luminosity function as a primary distance indicator. In the simulations we quantify the effects (1) signal to noise, (2) crowding, (3) population size, and (4) non-giant-branch-star contamination, on the method adopted for detecting the discontinuity,, measuring its luminosity, and estimating its uncertainity. We discuss sources of systematic error in the context of observable parameters, such as the signal-to-noise ratio and/or surface brightness. The simulations are then scaled to observed color-magnitude diagrams. It is concluded, that from the ground the tip of the red-giant-branch method can be sucessfully used to determine distances accurate to +/- 10% for galaxies out to 3 Mpc (mu approximately 27.5 mag); and from space a factor of four further in distance (mu approximately 30.6 mag) can be reached using HST. This method can be applied whereever a metal-poor population (-2.0 less than Z less than -0.7) of red-giant stars is detected (whose age is in the range 7-17 Gyr), whether that population resides in the halo of a spiral galaxy, the extended outer disk of a dwarf irregular, or in the outer periphery of an elliptical galaxy.

Madore, Barry F.↗

Worst case estimation of homology design by convex analysis

The methodology of homology design is investigated for optimum design of advanced structures. for which the achievement of delicate tasks by the aid of active control system is demanded. The proposed formulation of homology design, based on the finite element sensitivity analysis, necessarily requires the specification of external loadings. The formulation to evaluate the worst case for homology design caused by uncertain fluctuation of loadings is presented by means of the convex model of uncertainty, in which uncertainty variables are assigned to discretized nodal forces and are confined within a conceivable convex hull given as a hyperellipse. The worst case of the distortion from objective homologous deformation is estimated by the Lagrange multiplier method searching the point to maximize the error index on the boundary of the convex hull. The validity of the proposed method is demonstrated in a numerical example using the eleven-bar truss structure.

Yoshikawa, N.↗

An Adaptive Buddy Check for Observational Quality Control

An adaptive buddy check algorithm is presented that adjusts tolerances for outlier observations based on the variability of surrounding data. The algorithm derives from a statistical hypothesis test combined with maximum-likelihood covariance estimation. Its stability is shown to depend on the initial identification of outliers by a simple background check. The adaptive feature ensures that the final quality control decisions are not very sensitive to prescribed statistics of first-guess and observation errors, nor on other approximations introduced into the algorithm. The implementation of the algorithm in a global atmospheric data assimilation is described. Its performance is contrasted with that of a non-adaptive buddy check, for the surface analysis of an extreme storm that took place in Europe on 27 December 1999. The adaptive algorithm allowed the inclusion of many important observations that differed greatly from the first guess and that would have been excluded on the basis of prescribed statistics. The analysis of the storm development was much improved as a result of these additional observations.

Dee, Dick P.↗

Flight Test Validation of Optimal Input Design and Comparison to Conventional Inputs

A technique for designing optimal inputs for aerodynamic parameter estimation was flight tested on the F-18 High Angle of Attack Research Vehicle (HARV). Model parameter accuracies calculated from flight test data were compared on an equal basis for optimal input designs and conventional inputs at the same flight condition. In spite of errors in the a priori input design models and distortions of the input form by the feedback control system, the optimal inputs increased estimated parameter accuracies compared to conventional 3-2-1-1 and doublet inputs. In addition, the tests using optimal input designs demonstrated enhanced design flexibility, allowing the optimal input design technique to use a larger input amplitude to achieve further increases in estimated parameter accuracy without departing from the desired flight test condition. This work validated the analysis used to develop the optimal input designs, and demonstrated the feasibility and practical utility of the optimal input design technique.

Morelli, Eugene A.↗

Studies of the Effects of Optical System Errors on the HCIT Contrast Performance

The High Contrast Imaging Testbed (HCIT) at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory employs a broadband wavefront correction algorithm called Electric Field Conjugation (EFC) to obtain the required 10-10 contrast. This algorithm works with one deformable mirror (DM) to estimate the electric-field to be controlled, and with one or multiple DM's to create a "dark-hole" in a predefined region of the image plane where terrestrial planets would be found. We have investigated the effects of DM actuator errors and the optic position errors on the efficiency of the EFC algorithm in a Lyot coronagraph configuration. The structural design of the optical system as well as the parameters of various optical elements used in the analysis are drawn from those of the HCIT system that have been implemented with one DM. The simulation takes into account the surface errors of various optical elements. Results of some of these studies have been verified by actual measurements.

exoplanetsscopes↗

Altitude Registration of Limb-Scattered Radiation

One of the largest constraints to the retrieval of accurate ozone profiles from UV backscatter limb sounding sensors is altitude registration. Two methods, the Rayleigh scattering attitude sensing (RSAS) and absolute radiance residual method (ARRM), are able to determine altitude registration to the accuracy necessary for long-term ozone monitoring. The methods compare model calculations of radiances to measured radiances and are independent of onboard tracking devices. RSAS determines absolute altitude errors, but, because the method is susceptible to aerosol interference, it is limited to latitudes and time periods with minimal aerosol contamination. ARRM, a new technique introduced in this paper, can be applied across all seasons and altitudes. However, it is only appropriate for relative altitude error estimates. The application of RSAS to Limb Profiler (LP) measurements from the Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite (OMPS) on board the Suomi NPP (SNPP) satellite indicates tangent height (TH) errors greater than 1 km with an absolute accuracy of +/-200 m. Results using ARRM indicate a approx. 300 to 400m intra-orbital TH change varying seasonally +/-100 m, likely due to either errors in the spacecraft pointing or in the geopotential height (GPH) data that we use in our analysis. ARRM shows a change of approx. 200m over 5 years with a relative accuracy (a long-term accuracy) of 100m outside the polar regions.

Ozone profiles↗

UAS Well Clear Recovery Against Non-Cooperative Intruders Using Vertical Maneuvers

This paper documents a study that drove the development of a mathematical expression in the minimum operational performance standards (MOPS) of detect-and-avoid (DAA) systems for unmanned aircraft systems (UAS). This equation describes the conditions under which vertical maneuver guidance could be provided during recovery of well clear separation with a non-cooperative VFR aircraft in addition to horizontal maneuver guidance. Although suppressing vertical maneuver guidance in these situations increased the minimum horizontal separation from 500 to 800 feet, the maximum severity of loss of well clear increased in about 35 of the encounters compared to when a vertical maneuver was preferred and allowed. Additionally, analysis of individual cases led to the identification of a class of encounter where vertical rate error had a large effect on horizontal maneuvers due to the difficulty of making the correct left-right turn decision: crossing conflict with intruder changing altitude. These results supported allowing vertical maneuvers when UAS vertical performance exceeds the relative vertical position and velocity accuracy of the DAA tracker given the current velocity of the UAS and the relative vertical position and velocity estimated by the DAA tracker. Looking ahead, these results indicate a need to improve guidance algorithms by utilizing maneuver stability and near mid-air collision risk when determining maneuver guidance to regain well clear separation.

detect and avoid↗

Near Rectilinear Halo Orbit Determination with Simulated DSN Observations

This paper presents the results of a high-fidelity simulation of spacecraft orbit determination in a near rectilinear halo orbit (NRHO). Others in the literature have examined this problem with linear covariance analysis, but the highly-nonlinear dynamics of this orbit challenge the assumptions underlying such analyses. The present work builds on similar analysis performed by other authors to contribute a fuller understanding of the operational requirements for NRHO navigation. The present work serves as a check to the assumptions of previous studies and an independent verification of those results. The results from the literature are extended by quantifying the space of orbital states from which a spacecraft with given control authority can safely return to the nominal path. Spacecraft state uncertainty estimates are evaluated as a function of time. Simulated range and range-rate measurements with the Deep Space Network (DSN) ground stations are used to model orbit determination accuracy. Orbit maintenance maneuvers are performed using both short-horizon and long-horizon stationkeeping targeting. Monte Carlo analysis of orbit determination and stationkeeping is performed. This paper quantifies the achievable state uncertainty with deep space network (DSN)-only range and range-rate observations. This paper also addresses requirements on the frequency of DSN observation periods and correlates ground contact frequency with navigation accuracy. The results of several related studies are presented and discussed: the effect of missing ground station passes, the effect of missing stationkeeping maneuvers, the sensitivity of the spacecraft state estimate to realistic error sources, and stationkeeping propellant budget.

Nathan L Parrish↗

Ionospheric Slant Total Electron Content Analysis Using Global Positioning System Based Estimation

A method, system, apparatus, and computer program product provide the ability to analyze ionospheric slant total electron content (TEC) using global navigation satellite systems (GNSS)-based estimation. Slant TEC is estimated for a given set of raypath geometries by fitting historical GNSS data to a specified delay model. The accuracy of the specified delay model is estimated by computing delay estimate residuals and plotting a behavior of the delay estimate residuals. An ionospheric threat model is computed based on the specified delay model. Ionospheric grid delays (IGDs) and grid ionospheric vertical errors (GIVEs) are computed based on the ionospheric threat model.

Sparks, Lawrence C.↗

Deep learning to estimate permeability using geophysical data

Time-lapse electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) is a popular geophysical method to estimate three-dimensional (3D) permeability fields from electrical potential difference measurements. Traditional inversion and data assimilation methods are used to ingest this ERT data into hydrogeophysical models to estimate permeability. Due to ill-posedness and the curse of dimensionality, existing inversion strategies provide poor estimates and low resolution of the 3D permeability field. Recent advances in deep learning provide us with powerful algorithms to overcome this challenge. This paper presents a deep learning (DL) framework to estimate the 3D subsurface permeability from time-lapse ERT data. To test the feasibility of the proposed framework, we train DL-enabled inverse models on simulation data. Each measurement in both synthetic and field data is standardized by removing the mean and scaling the time-series to unit variance. This pre-processing step is necessary to bring simulation data closer to field observations. Subsurface process models based on hydrogeophysics are used to generate this synthetic data. Training performed on limited simulation data resulted in the DL model over-fitting. An advanced data augmentation based on mixup is implemented to generate additional training samples to overcome this issue. This mixup technique creates weakly labeled (low-fidelity) samples from strongly labeled (high-fidelity) data. The weakly labeled training data is then used to develop DL-enabled inverse models and reduce over-fitting. As both time-lapse ERT (1133048 features/realization) and 3D permeability (585453 features/realization) data samples are from a high-dimensional space, principal component analysis (PCA) is employed to reduce dimensionality. Encoded ERT and encoded permeability are generated using the trained PCA estimators. A deep neural network is then trained to map the encoded ERT to encoded permeability. This mixup training and unsupervised learning allowed us to build a fast and reasonably accurate DL-based inverse model under limited simulation data. Results show that proposed weak supervised learning can capture salient spatial features in the 3D permeability field. Quantitatively, the average mean squared error (in terms of the natural log) on the strongly labeled training, validation, and test datasets is less than 0.5. The R 2 -score (global metric) is greater than 0.75, and the percent error in each cell (local metric) is less than 10%. Finally, an added benefit in terms of computational cost is that the proposed DL-based inverse model is at least O(10 4 ) times faster than running a forward model once it is trained. Data generation, DL model training, and hyperparameter tuning to identify optimal neural network architectures utilized high-performance computing resources while the DL inference is performed on a standard laptop. Approximately, O(10 5 ) processor hours are used for generating data and DL tuning and training. We acknowledge that the data generation and DL model development are expensive. But once a DL model is trained, it can be re-used for inversion rapidly for the given system, with set physics and domain. Note that traditional inversion may require multiple forward model simulations (e.g., in the order of 10 to 1000), which are very expensive. This computational savings ≈ O(10 5 ) – O(10 7 )) makes the proposed DL-based inverse model attractive for subsurface imaging and real-time ERT monitoring applications due to fast and yet reasonably accurate estimations of permeability field.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Viking relativity experiment - Verification of signal retardation by solar gravity

Analysis of 14 months of data obtained from radio ranging to the Viking spacecraft verified, to an estimated accuracy of 0.1%, the prediction of the general theory of relativity that the round-trip times of light signals traveling between the earth and Mars are increased by the direct effect of solar gravity. The corresponding value for the metric parameter gamma is 1.000 plus or minus 0.002, where the quoted uncertainty, twice the formal standard deviation, allows for possible systematic errors.

Reasenberg, R. D.↗

Development of An Intelligent Flight Propulsion Control System

The initial design and demonstration of an Intelligent Flight Propulsion and Control System (IFPCS) is documented. The design is based on the implementation of a nonlinear adaptive flight control architecture. This initial design of the IFPCS enhances flight safety by using propulsion sources to provide redundancy in flight control. The IFPCS enhances the conventional gain scheduled approach in significant ways: (1) The IFPCS provides a back up flight control system that results in consistent responses over a wide range of unanticipated failures. (2) The IFPCS is applicable to a variety of aircraft models without redesign and,(3) significantly reduces the laborious research and design necessary in a gain scheduled approach. The control augmentation is detailed within an approximate Input-Output Linearization setting. The availability of propulsion only provides two control inputs, symmetric and differential thrust. Earlier Propulsion Control Augmentation (PCA) work performed by NASA provided for a trajectory controller with pilot command input of glidepath and heading. This work is aimed at demonstrating the flexibility of the IFPCS in providing consistency in flying qualities under a variety of failure scenarios. This report documents the initial design phase where propulsion only is used. Results confirm that the engine dynamics and associated hard nonlineaaities result in poor handling qualities at best. However, as demonstrated in simulation, the IFPCS is capable of results similar to the gain scheduled designs of the NASA PCA work. The IFPCS design uses crude estimates of aircraft behaviour. The adaptive control architecture demonstrates robust stability and provides robust performance. In this work, robust stability means that all states, errors, and adaptive parameters remain bounded under a wide class of uncertainties and input and output disturbances. Robust performance is measured in the quality of the tracking. The results demonstrate the flexibility of the IFPCS architecture and the ability to provide robust performance under a broad range of uncertainty. Robust stability is proved using Lyapunov like analysis. Future development of the IFPCS will include integration of conventional control surfaces with the use of propulsion augmentation, and utilization of available lift and drag devices, to demonstrate adaptive control capability under a greater variety of failure scenarios. Further work will specifically address the effects of actuator saturation.

Calise, A. J.↗

Highlights of TOMS Version 9 Total Ozone Algorithm

The fundamental basis of TOMS total ozone algorithm was developed some 45 years ago by Dave and Mateer. It was designed to estimate total ozone from satellite measurements of the backscattered UV radiances at few discrete wavelengths in the Huggins ozone absorption band (310-340 nm). Over the years, as the need for higher accuracy in measuring total ozone from space has increased, several improvements to the basic algorithms have been made. They include: better correction for the effects of aerosols and clouds, an improved method to account for the variation in shape of ozone profiles with season, latitude, and total ozone, and a multi-wavelength correction for remaining profile shape errors. These improvements have made it possible to retrieve total ozone with just 3 spectral channels of moderate spectral resolution (approx. 1 nm) with accuracy comparable to state-of-the-art spectral fitting algorithms like DOAS that require high spectral resolution measurements at large number of wavelengths. One of the deficiencies of the TOMS algorithm has been that it doesn't provide an error estimate. This is a particular problem in high latitudes when the profile shape errors become significant and vary with latitude, season, total ozone, and instrument viewing geometry. The primary objective of the TOMS V9 algorithm is to account for these effects in estimating the error bars. This is done by a straightforward implementation of the Rodgers optimum estimation method using a priori ozone profiles and their error covariances matrices constructed using Aura MLS and ozonesonde data. The algorithm produces a vertical ozone profile that contains 1-2.5 pieces of information (degrees of freedom of signal) depending upon solar zenith angle (SZA). The profile is integrated to obtain the total column. We provide information that shows the altitude range in which the profile is best determined by the measurements. One can use this information in data assimilation and analysis. A side benefit of this algorithm is that it is considerably simpler than the present algorithm that uses a database of 1512 profiles to retrieve total ozone. These profiles are tedious to construct and modify. Though conceptually similar to the SBUV V8 algorithm that was developed about a decade ago, the SBUV and TOMS V9 algorithms differ in detail. The TOMS algorithm uses 3 wavelengths to retrieve the profile while the SBUV algorithm uses 6-9 wavelengths, so TOMS provides less profile information. However both algorithms have comparable total ozone information and TOMS V9 can be easily adapted to use additional wavelengths from instruments like GOME, OMI and OMPS to provide better profile information at smaller SZAs. The other significant difference between the two algorithms is that while the SBUV algorithm has been optimized for deriving monthly zonal means by making an appropriate choice of the a priori error covariance matrix, the TOMS algorithm has been optimized for tracking short-term variability using month and latitude dependent covariance matrices.

Bhartia, Pawan↗

CREME96 and Related Error Rate Prediction Methods

Predicting the rate of occurrence of single event effects (SEEs) in space requires knowledge of the radiation environment and the response of electronic devices to that environment. Several analytical models have been developed over the past 36 years to predict SEE rates. The first error rate calculations were performed by Binder, Smith and Holman. Bradford and Pickel and Blandford, in their CRIER (Cosmic-Ray-Induced-Error-Rate) analysis code introduced the basic Rectangular ParallelePiped (RPP) method for error rate calculations. For the radiation environment at the part, both made use of the Cosmic Ray LET (Linear Energy Transfer) spectra calculated by Heinrich for various absorber Depths. A more detailed model for the space radiation environment within spacecraft was developed by Adams and co-workers. This model, together with a reformulation of the RPP method published by Pickel and Blandford, was used to create the CR ME (Cosmic Ray Effects on Micro-Electronics) code. About the same time Shapiro wrote the CRUP (Cosmic Ray Upset Program) based on the RPP method published by Bradford. It was the first code to specifically take into account charge collection from outside the depletion region due to deformation of the electric field caused by the incident cosmic ray. Other early rate prediction methods and codes include the Single Event Figure of Merit, NOVICE, the Space Radiation code and the effective flux method of Binder which is the basis of the SEFA (Scott Effective Flux Approximation) model. By the early 1990s it was becoming clear that CREME and the other early models needed Revision. This revision, CREME96, was completed and released as a WWW-based tool, one of the first of its kind. The revisions in CREME96 included improved environmental models and improved models for calculating single event effects. The need for a revision of CREME also stimulated the development of the CHIME (CRRES/SPACERAD Heavy Ion Model of the Environment) and MACREE (Modeling and Analysis of Cosmic Ray Effects in Electronics). The Single Event Figure of Merit method was also revised to use the solar minimum galactic cosmic ray spectrum and extended to circular orbits down to 200 km at any inclination. More recently a series of commercial codes was developed by TRAD (Test & Radiations) which includes the OMERE code which calculates single event effects. There are other error rate prediction methods which use Monte Carlo techniques. In this chapter the analytic methods for estimating the environment within spacecraft will be discussed.

Adams, James H., Jr.↗

Analysis of backward error recovery for concurrent processes with recovery blocks

Three different methods of implementing recovery blocks (RB's). These are the asynchronous, synchronous, and the pseudo recovery point implementations. Pseudo recovery points so that unbounded rollback may be avoided while maintaining process autonomy are proposed. Probabilistic models for analyzing these three methods under standard assumptions in computer performance analysis, i.e., exponential distributions for related random variables were developed. The interval between two successive recovery lines for asynchronous RB's mean loss in computation power for the synchronized method, and additional overhead and rollback distance in case PRP's are used were estimated.

Shin, K. G.↗

An analysis of carrier phase jitter in an MPSK receiver utilizing map estimation

The use of 8 and 16 PSK TCM to support satellite communications in an effort to achieve more bandwidth efficiency in a power-limited channel has been proposed. This project addresses the problem of carrier phase jitter in an M-PSK receiver utilizing the high SNR approximation to the maximum aposteriori estimation of carrier phase. In particular, numerical solutions to the 8 and 16 PSK self-noise and phase detector gain in the carrier tracking loop are presented. The effect of changing SNR on the loop noise bandwidth is also discussed. These data are then used to compute variance of phase error as a function of SNR. Simulation and hardware data are used to verify these calculations. The results show that there is a threshold in the variance of phase error versus SNR curves that is a strong function of SNR and a weak function of loop bandwidth. The M-PSK variance thresholds occur at SNR's in the range of practical interest for the use of 8 and 16-PSK TCM. This suggests that phase error variance is an important consideration in the design of these systems.

Osborne, William P.↗

Propagating information content: an example with advection

The mathematical algorithm to derive geophysical information from remote sensing observations is called a retrieval. The mathematics of many retrieval problems are ill-posed, and thus a priori information is used to help constrain the derived geophysical variable to realistic values. One quantity of interest, therefore, is the information content of the observation. Perfect information content in the observation would be achieved if the retrieval were able to capture any perturbation in the desired geophysical variable with the proper magnitude. Many new data products can be derived by combining geophysical variables retrieved from multiple different remote sensors. This paper explores, for the first time, how to derive the information content of these derived products. The approach uses traditional error propagation techniques to derive the uncertainty of the derived field twice, both when the observations are used in the retrieval and also when only the a priori information from each remote sensor is propagated. These two uncertainties are then used to provide an estimate of the information content of the derived geophysical variable. This study demonstrates how to propagate the uncertainties from six different instruments to provide the information content for water vapor and temperature advection. A multi-month analysis demonstrates that, in a mean sense, the information content for temperature advection is nearly unity for all heights below 700 m while, the information content for water vapor advection is somewhat more variable but still larger than 0.6 in the convective boundary layer.

Turner, David D. [National Oceanic and Atmospheric↗

Solar permitting, inspection, and interconnection cycletimes and requirements

Twenty three small-to-large residential, commercial, and industrial PV installers submitted project-level data for analysis, which included timestamps for major components of the permitting, inspection, and interconnection process as well as contract and installation dates. NREL calculated median timelines for these processes across the authorities having jurisdiction (AHJs) and utilities represented in the data. Also included are relevant permitting requirements for AHJs and interconnection process requirements for utilities. This dataset represents the underlying results shown in the Solar Time-based Residential Analytics and Cycle time Estimator (SolarTRACE) viewer. This dataset has been reviewed but errors may exist, and it may not be comprehensive. Errors in the sources (e.g., AHJ permitting requirements lists from data partners) may be duplicated in the dataset.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗