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All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2021

Repetitively pulsed nanosecond discharge plasma decay in propane–oxygen gas mixture in the presence of a heating electric field

Plasma decay in the afterglow of a repetitively pulsed nanosecond discharge in a stoichiometric propane–oxygen mixture was experimentally investigated when a weak heating DC electric field was applied and in its absence. The discharge was ignited at room gas temperature and a pressure of 1–2 Torr and was characterized by low specific energy inputs (<0.004 eV per molecule in one pulse). Using microwave interferometry, the temporal evolution of the electron density during plasma decay was studied, and the effective recombination coefficients were obtained from data processing. It was shown that the rate of plasma decay behaved in a non-monotonic manner with increasing degree of propane oxidation; at first the decay rate grew, then passed through a maximum, fell and saturated in the limit of a large (~2000) number of pulses. In this limit, the effect of the heating DC electric field on the plasma decay decreased with approaching chemical equilibrium. Numerical simulation of the observed effects was performed for low and high oxidation degrees of propane taking into account changes in the composition of positive ions in the plasma. Good agreement was obtained between measurements and calculations of the electron density during plasma decay in these cases. Here it was shown that the formation of cluster ions in the discharge afterglow plays a fundamental role. The plasma decay was controlled by electron recombination with hydrocarbon cluster ion at low oxidation degree of propane and with water cluster (hydrated) ions at high oxidation degree. A hypothesis was proposed to explain the observed nonmonotonic behavior of the plasma decay rate with an increase in the propane oxidation in the discharge, based on the formation of hydrated hydrocarbon ions C x H y + (H 2 O) k at moderate oxidation degrees.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2022

Degradation mechanism of blended cement pastes in sulfate-bearing environments under applied electric fields: Sulfate attack vs. decalcification

Applied electric fields, the reason behind stray currents, accelerate the ingress of sulfate into cementitious materials. To identify mitigation approaches, this study investigates the effects of slag and fly ash on sodium sulfate attacks of cement pastes under a constant electric current. The mineralogical alterations induced by the attacks were analyzed using X-ray diffractometry, thermogravimetric analysis, scanning electron microscopy, and thermodynamic modeling. The dissolution of aluminates in the slag and fly ash induced a monosulfate-rich area (>~20 mm from the cathode surface) to form next to the ettringite-rich area on the sample surface (<~20 mm). This effect reduced the availability of SO 4 2– in the pore solution, thereby hindering the penetration of sulfate. Meanwhile, the consumption of portlandite by the pozzolanic reaction lowered the decalcification resistance of the materials. This produced a wide area that endured the decomposition of portlandite and carbonate-AFm. Altogether, blending 30% fly ash did not improve the resistance of the material to either sulfate attacks or decalcification; blending 50% slag can effectively mitigate sulfate ingress, though decalcification may become a governing mechanism in the degradation process.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2024

Integrated multimodel analysis reveals achievable pathways toward reliable, 100% renewable electricity for Los Angeles

Climate change has prompted many communities to set targets for carbon-free power supplies, but they often lack data-driven strategies to achieve them. We present a comprehensive analysis of an entirely renewable electric power system that can maintain operating reliability and resource adequacy using detailed models of the city of Los Angeles power grid. In consultation with the operating utility, the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (LADWP), and the local community, we develop four supply scenarios across three demand projections to analyze which types of infrastructure and operational changes would achieve reliable electricity at least cost. We find that a reliable, 100%-renewable power system yielding more than $1 billion annually in health and climate co-benefits is achievable. Solar can supply most future energy needs, while combustion turbines that use renewable, storable carbon-neutral fuels are key to maintaining reliability. This study provides a replicable methodology that other jurisdictions globally can follow.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Safety and effectiveness of a non-electric infant warmer for hypothermia in Rwanda: A cluster-randomized stepped-wedge trial

Background: Neonatal hypothermia is a common source of morbidity and mortality in low resource settings. We developed the Dream Warmer, a low cost, re-usable non-electric infant warmer to prevent and treat hypothermia. Methods: We conducted a cluster-randomized stepped-wedge trial. The primary aim was to assess the effect on overall euthermia rates of introducing the warmer compared to standard of care in rural Rwandan hospitals. The secondary aims were to assess effects of warmer introduction on mortality, as well as the safety and feasibility of the warmer. Ten district hospitals participated in the study from November 19th 2019 to July 15th 2020. Patients were eligible to use the warmer if they were 1) hypothermic (temp < 36·5 °C) or 2) or at risk of hypothermia (weight < 2·5 kg or estimated post menstrual age < 35 weeks) when Kangaroo Mother Care was not available. An encounter was defined as the data from an individual infant on a single day. Trial of a Non Electric Infant Warmer for Prevention and Treatment of Hypothermia in Rwanda [NCT03890211]. Findings: Over the study period, 3179 patients were enrolled across the ten neonatal wards, yielding 12,748 encounters; 464 unique infants used the warmer 892 times, 79% eligible due to hypothermia. Because of limited study nurse resources, the warmer was used in only 18% of eligible encounters. Despite this low rate of warmer use, the rate of euthermia rose from 51% (95% CI 50–52%) of encounters pre-intervention to 67% (66–68%) post-intervention; p < 0·0001. Among the encounters in which the warmer was used, only 11% (9–13%) remained hypothermic. While mortality rates pre- and post-intervention did not change, mortality rate among those who used the warmer was significantly lower than among those who did not (0·9% vs 2·8%, p = 0·01). Use of the warmer did not affect hyperthermia rates. There were no safety concerns or instances of incorrect warmer use. Interpretation: Introduction of the warmer increased rates of euthermia with no associated safety concerns.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Sequence-to-sequence neural networks for short-term electrical load forecasting in commercial office buildings

The U.S. power grid is transforming to become smarter, cleaner, and more effi- cient. This is leading to the addition of significant distributed variable renew- able generation. Due to the variable nature of renewable generation, the short- and long-term supply-demand imbalances are less predictable, and conventional approaches to mitigating the imbalance will not be efficient or cost-effective. To address this challenge, transactive control technologies have been proposed which balance energy generation and consumption with market activity and in- frastructural limitations. Transactive control requires the ability of individual end-use loads to express flexibility as a function of a transactive signal (e.g., price). Empirical gray- and black-box models have been widely used to express flexibility, and although these approaches are generally easy to construct and simple to use, they do not capture the non-linear behavior that some end-use loads represent . Machine learning approaches have been proposed to address this limitation. Although deep learning approaches for forecasting end-use loads have been explored, certain aspects of the application of deep models to load forecasting are not well understood. These aspects include how much training data is required, and how models should be structured and trained. To that end, this work explores how to approach applying deep recurrent neural networks to short-term electrical load forecasting with a case study of four commercial office buildings. We identify data requirements for training accurate models of whole building electricity use conditioned on outdoor temperature, provide insight into model hyperparameter sensitivity, and demonstrate how readily models can be generalized to unseen buildings.

Skomski, Elliott↗

DOE OSTI2025

Thermal and electric multidomain dynamic model for integration of power grid distribution with behind-the-meter devices

As renewable energy sources like solar and wind power become more integrated into the grid, coordinated control of behind-the-meter devices is crucial for enhancing grid flexibility and reliability and for meeting cost targets, with standardized models being developed to support this transition. The increasing flexibility and uncertainty of integrated renewable energy grids, along with interactions between various subsystems, make traditional steady-state modeling insufficient to capture transient and dynamic behaviors. Current models (e.g., composite load and battery equivalent models) focus on thermodynamic or electrical characteristics but overlook critical electromechanical interactions. This limits the ability to share performance information for grid services and hampers fast dynamic simulations. In addition, motor stalling is usually triggered by a fault event and attributed to the characteristics of the mechanical torque of the motor, resulting in absorption of a large amount of reactive power during the stalling period. Further, this significant withdrawal of reactive power will deteriorate the dynamic voltage stability of power grids and cause delayed voltage recovery. Therefore, an in-depth modeling of the thermodynamics or mechanical torque is essential to study the impacts of the realistic torque characteristics of those behind-the-meter devices on power system voltage stability. This study developed a dynamic multidomain model for building HVAC systems, such as air-source heat pumps, to simulate their thermal and electrical responses to grid transients. The model can accurately predict power metrics with a mean absolute percentage error of 10%, by validating against with power system computer-aided design performance data. Case studies demonstrate the model capability of capturing the transient response to sudden voltage changes, rapid load fluctuations, and system shutdowns respectively. During a sudden voltage drop (30% for 0.1s), a fully loaded heat pump’s motor speed dropped, continued declining, and shut down after 3.6s, with severe power oscillations and a torque spike. A partially loaded unit experienced temporary oscillations but stabilized. Under higher building loads, compressor speed increased from 64% to 100%, with power and torque rising before stabilizing. In safety-triggered shutdowns, power decreased after minor fluctuations, and torque briefly spiked before dropping to zero.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2021

Evaluation of cooling setpoint setback savings in commercial buildings using electricity and exterior temperature time series data

Commercial buildings account for a significant amount of total energy produced in the US, and the Heating Ventilation and Cooling (HVAC) systems are one of the most significant components of their overall consumption. In this study, we proposed a new data-driven approach to evaluate HVAC cooling systems in commercial buildings and identify savings opportunities. The focus is an investigation of the impact of thermostat setpoint setback but using only whole building, electricity data taken at 15-min intervals for the analysis. We conducted a comparative study of setpoint setback characteristics on 432 commercial buildings with 5 building usage types across the United States. To accomplish this, both piecewise and Random Forest regression algorithms were employed using electricity and exterior temperature datasets to identify operational characteristics and the effective setpoints in the building to determine the corresponding savings opportunities. Both occupied and unoccupied time periods were studied across cooling degree days (CDD), when air conditioning is typically operational. Here the results show that in commercial buildings, on average, cooling systems account for 9.5% of total consumption. When a one degree setback during the cooling season is applied, an average of approximately 1.1% of annual consumption is achieved; retail and office buildings demonstrate the highest potential for savings. Additionally, we identified that the number of cooling degree days and base to peak ratio (BPR) are the most important variables for predicting the magnitude of the consumption of cooling systems.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2026

Short-term electricity load forecasting: Application-driven evaluation of machine learning models across spatial and temporal scales

As we transition towards a decarbonized economy, the integration of variable renewable energy resources and new demands (e.g., electric vehicles, heat pumps) into the electricity grid places unprecedented pressure on grid operators to effectively anticipate and manage peak load. In this context, machine learning algorithms are proving to be indispensable for accurate short-term load forecasting, a crucial task to address these challenges. This study benchmarks 6 machine learning algorithms, including three neural networks and three tree-based algorithms, across various levels of spatial aggregation and time horizons (1, 4, 8, 24, and 48 h). The central contribution of this work is the comparison and analysis of load forecasting models not only based on statistical metrics, but also based on a novel error metric, which evaluates the cost implications of forecast errors for power system stakeholders. Results show that tree-based models outperform neural networks, based on statistical metrics, and yield less skewed error distributions for most spatial scales. However, through the lens of the novel error metric, neural networks are the more competitive choice, especially for forecast horizons that exceed 8 h. The study concludes with actionable recommendations to grid operators and highlights the need for the development of error metrics that link forecasting accuracy to operational costs. To promote transparency and open science, the datasets and Python code are open-sourced via a supplementary repository.

Houben, Nikolaus↗

DOE OSTI2020

Comparative Analysis of Natural Gas Cogeneration Incentives on Electricity Production in Latin America

An analysis to assess the influence of country-dependent variables and incentives on the feasibility of natural gas cogeneration projects in Latin America is presented in this work. The analysis is performed using a hypothetical industrial plant, where the cogeneration solution consists in the recovery of waste heat from the power generation for steam production. The feasibility is evaluated by calculating the Return of Investment (ROI) and the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of the project. Eight Latin American countries are studied considering their specific natural gas markets, regulation, and macroeconomic variables. Two scenarios, electricity production for self-consumption and electricity production with power surplus sale, are independently analyzed considering the effects of available incentives. In the countries where the project is feasible, the application of incentives leads to a significant reduction in the ROI and, consequently, to an increment in the IRR. The effect of the interest rate and environmental impact were also analyzed. In general terms, along the region, the regulation for cogeneration is incipient while incentives are very standard and similar respect to lowering of import, Value-Added Tax (VAT), and income taxes, which seems to be designed purely to promote capital investment. Following the results from this study, it is of paramount importance to create new policy instruments in the future to advance the regulatory framework for cogeneration in Latin America.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2020

A trilevel model against false gas-supply information attacks in electricity systems

The interdependence between natural gas and electricity systems is increasing rapidly due to the growing reliance on natural gas-fired generating units. Availability of natural gas for gas-fired generating units can impact the secure operation of electricity systems. Fuel supply shortage for gas-fired units can be caused by uncertain interruptible supply contracts and incorrect supply information. This article proposes a trilevel min-max-min defender-attacker-operator optimization problem to provide the power system operator a screening methodology that allocates a limited budget for best protecting critical fuel supply information, and also the strategies to sign firm supply contract to reduce natural gas supply uncertainties. We utilize a column and constraint generation (C&CG) algorithm to solve the proposed problem. We illustrate the effectiveness of this trilevel formulation using a case study based on IEEE 24-node test system.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Industrial battery operation and utilization in the presence of electrical load uncertainty using Bayesian decision theory

Behind the meter battery storage is becoming increasing popular in all sectors, though enthusiasm has recently lagged in the industrial sector. Even though there may be many factors contributing to this including lack of innovation, prohibitive costs, and undesirable rate structures, a difficulty arises in accounting for uncertainty of electrical load in industrial facilities while still attempting to utilize battery storage as much as possible all while trying to achieve fiscal profitability. Here this study utilizes Gaussian process regression and Bayesian decision theory to organize load data and quantify electrical load uncertainty to properly and effectively discharge industrial battery storage. The study employs a simulation model to set battery load setpoints for the span of the utility billing period according to the degree of risk aversion. This combination of economic analysis according to utility billing period and utilization of degree of risk aversion to make decisions on the uncertainty of the data has not before been applied to battery storage. The method resulted in an annual average reduction of peak demand by 3.8 % at the lowest amount of savings and lowest risk aversion. The highest risk aversion resulted in an annual average reduction of peak demand of 7.5 %. The maximum reduction of peak load in any month was 13.8 % in the month of December with a relatively high risk aversion. With a the highest amount risk aversion tested, the model reduced demand ten of the twelve months of the year.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Daily operational impacts on battery degradation in heavy-duty electric drayage trucks

Battery aging is a critical factor influencing the performance, longevity, and cost of ownership of battery electric trucks (BETs). This paper presents a comprehensive evaluation of battery aging for two Li-ion battery chemistries, Nickel-Manganese-Cobalt (NMC) and Lithium-Iron-Phosphate (LFP), accounting for both cycling and calendar aging. In contrast to traditional methods that rely on simplified linear degradation models based on manufacturer-provided data, this study employs semi-empirical aging models calibrated to experimentally collected data. The models are integrated into a detailed vehicle simulation environment, enabling a comprehensive assessment of battery degradation under realistic operating conditions. A case study focusing on heavy-duty electric drayage truck operations in the Port of Savannah, GA, is presented to illustrate the impact on battery pack lifespan of: seasonal variations, daily operational activities, charging strategies, and battery storage conditions. The results illuminate the significance of the battery pack’s state of charge during stationary periods, such as overnight storage or weekend parking, on battery degradation and its potential implications for long-term vehicle viability. Additionally, the study explores how different operational and environmental factors affect battery degradation, offering critical insights into best battery charging and storage practices. Our results demonstrate that LFP outperforms NMC in terms of years of useful life; however, by utilizing charging strategies that minimize the amount of time the battery spends resting at high levels of state-of-charge, the lifespan of the battery pack that uses NMC can nonetheless be increased by more than a factor of two.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Cost and life cycle analysis for deep CO 2 emissions reduction of steelmaking: Blast furnace-basic oxygen furnace and electric arc furnace technologies

Iron and steel manufacturing is the largest contributor to CO 2 emissions among heavy industries worldwide. This is mostly due to the use of coal in blast furnace-basic oxygen furnace (BF-BOF) process for virgin (primary) steel production. The electricity generation mix used in the electric arc furnace (EAF) process to recycle scrap steel also contributes to the CO 2 emission associated with secondary steel production. To decarbonize iron and steel sector, we investigated decarbonization options for BF-BOF and EAF processes, including energy efficiency, carbon capture and storage, and the use of clean energy sources, in various BF-BOF and EAF process configurations. Additionally, for each decarbonization approach, we evaluated the CO 2 reduction potential via life cycle analysis (LCA) and estimated the associated cost through techno-economic analysis (TEA). A typical U.S. BF-BOF for virgin steel production has a cradle-to-gate (CTG) CO 2 emissions of 1,990 kg/MT steel with a levelized cost of steel (LCOS) of $\$439$/MT steel, while a typical U.S. EAF process for secondary steel production in the United States has a CTG CO 2 emissions of 270 kg/MT steel with a LCOS of $\$365$/MT steel. Combining renewable energy sources and carbon capture, BF-BOF CTG CO 2 emissions can be reduced to 16 kg/MT steel, and EAF configurations can achieve similar deep reductions to reach 25 kg/MT steel. The corresponding LCOS with these decarbonization levels is estimated to increase to $\$542$/MT steel and $\$348$/MT steel, respectively. The estimated CO 2 avoidance costs vary from -$\$90$/MT CO 2 to $\$646$/MT CO 2 , depending on the various decarbonization technologies and energy prices.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Moving toward a framework for electricity and heat equivalence in energy systems analysis

Sustaining, maintaining, and upgrading the electricity grid, while meeting decarbonization goals is a challenge facing policymakers, regulators, grid operators, and investors. Simultaneously meeting demands for future capacity, retiring older inefficient technologies, and addressing externalities from energy production and use requires more diverse and inclusive technologies to avoid constraints and shortfalls in grid capability. Changing the energy production paradigm by encouraging alternative technologies was a key driver for FERC Order 2222. This stimulus for developing new small-scale generation will complement and supplement the existing fleet only if it attracts new investment. This investment must reflect technology that goes beyond the energy-only characteristics of traditional generation, creating systems where suites of energy-equivalent outputs are enhanced by environmental quality benefits and offsets. We use energy system designs to highlight the contribution that measuring and accounting for equivalency values provides net increases in capacity, electricity, and alternative fuels while simultaneously reducing carbon waste impacts.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Roles of retailers in the peer-to-peer electricity market: A single retailer perspective

Despite extensive research in the past five years and several successfully completed and on-going pilot projects, regulators are still reluctant to implement peer-to-peer trading at a large-scale in today’s electricity market. The reason could partly be attributed to the perceived disadvantage of current market participants like retailers due to their exclusion from market participation - a fundamental property of decentralized peer-to-peer trading. As a consequence, recently, there has been growing pressure from energy service providers in favor of retailers’ participation in peer-to-peer trading. However, the role of retailers in the peer-to peer market is yet to be established as no existing study has challenged this fundamental circumspection of decentralized trading. In this context, this perspective takes the first step to discuss the feasibility of retailers’ involvement in the peer-to-peer market. In doing so, we identify key characteristics of retail-based and peer-to-peer electricity markets and discuss our viewpoint on how to incorporate a single retailer in a peer-to-peer market without compromising the fundamental decision-making characteristics of both markets. Finally, we give an example of a hypothetical business model to demonstrate how a retailer can be a part of a peer-to-peer market with a promise of collective benefits for the participants.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Unveiling the nature of Ga-based chalcogenides for electrical switching selectors

Three-dimensional phase-change memory with stackable crossbar architecture is a promising technology to meet the urgent demands for high-density storage and rapid information processing in the era of explosive data growth. The performance depends strongly on the properties of ovonic threshold switching (OTS) selectors, which control the on/off states of memory units. Amorphous GaS serves as an outstanding OTS material, distinguished by its sizable mobility gap and high crystallization temperature, while the underlying mechanism continues to be inadequately comprehended. Here, in this work, we systematically studied the structural and electronic properties of amorphous Ga-X (X = S/Se/Te) using first-principles calculations. The results show that Ga atoms adopt tetrahedral motifs, while S/Se/Te atoms predominantly exhibit the structure of a distorted triangular pyramid. This structural arrangement is ascribed to the substantial dative bonds formed by the lone-pair electrons of the anions and the vacant sp3 orbitals around Ga atoms. Large mobility gaps (e.g., GaS: 2.43 eV, GaSe: 1.76 eV, GaTe: 1.26 eV) and distinct mid-gap states (e.g., ∼0.66 eV above valence band tail) ensure that these three chalcogenide glasses can be switched on under an external electric field while effectively suppressing leakage current without a bias, and the defect electronic states originate from short, robust Ga-Ga bonds due to the formation of distorted chain-like local structures. Our research elucidates the mechanisms of amorphous Ga-X as OTS materials, enriching the spectrum of electrical switching selectors by incorporating III-VI chalcogenides. This inclusion offers novel opportunities for the refinement and optimization of high-density integrated memory systems.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Bedrock architecture, soil texture, and hyporheic zone characterization combining electrical resistivity and induced polarization imaging

The shallow (<15 m depth) subsurface environment of a short reach along a bedrock stream was investigated with electrical resistivity and induced polarization (IP) to map details of bedrock and soil sediments. The bedrock is mostly comprised of limestone, and is generally resistive compared to the overlying soil. The soil-bedrock interface was determined through a trial and error approach using a sharp boundary feature in the inversion model. The inferred bedrock surface determined from the inversions exhibited undulating patterns with troughs and ridges. A near continuous trough ran alongside the stream within the floodplain, and is suggestive of a paleochannel among other interpretations of this feature. The structure of the electrical resistivity above the bedrock showed small-scale elongated features. The chargeability from the IP method showed larger scale features. High values of chargeability were associated with the sediments in the floodplain, and low values were associated with bedrock, stream, and soil on the elevated banks above the stream. If the chargeability is associated with membrane polarization characteristic of clayey soils, then IP seems to highlight the mere existence of clay, while the resistivity may be more discernable of the relative proportion of clay. Vegetation differences may also explain the chargeability distribution, where parts of the survey with high chargeability had dense pine with no understory making the soils more organically rich.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Revisiting the relationship between demand growth and electricity prices

Here, in this Commentary, we aim to clarify the relationship between electricity demand and prices in the short- and longer-term. We outline three dimensions that shape this relationship: system capacity utilization, system expansion costs, and cost allocation in the rate design process. We explain why demand growth has historically been largely associated with falling electricity prices and explore arguments that future C&I demand growth may increase prices.

O'Shaughnessy, Eric [Lawrence Berkeley National La↗