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At least 1,315 records · Page 73

Electrical and photovoltaic properties of CdTe/ZnTe n-i-p junctions grown by molecular beam epitaxy

Preliminary studies have been performed on photoelectrical properties of CdTe/ZnTe n-i-p junctions grown using the molecular beam epitaxy technique. Photovoltaic properties of the cells have been investigated by the measurements of current-voltage (I-V) characteristics under 1-sun illumination. I-V characteristics yield efficiencies of the cells varying from 3.4% to 4.9%. The low efficiency can be due to the presence of electrically active defects. In order to study the origin of defects in CdTe/ZnTe photovoltaic junctions, space charge techniques (C-V and deep level transient spectroscopy (DLTS)) have been applied. From the C-V measurements, a doping profile was calculated confirming charge accumulation in the i-CdTe layer. The results of the DLTS studies revealed the presence of four traps within a temperature range from 77–420 K. Three of them with activation energies equal to 0.22 eV, 0.45 eV, and 0.78 eV have been ascribed to the hole traps present in the i-CdTe material and their possible origin has been discussed. The fourth, high-temperature DLTS peak observed at ∼350 K has been attributed to extended defects as its amplitude and temperature position depends on the value of the filling pulse width. It is assumed that the defects related to the trap are either located in the i-CdTe layer or at the i-CdTe/ZnTe interface. However, it was found that the trap exhibits twofold nature: it behaves as a majority or as a minority trap, depending on the filling pulse height, which is a characteristic feature of recombination centers. This trap is presumably responsible for the low efficiency of the cells.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Study of barrier height and trap centers of Au/n-Hg{sub 3}In{sub 2}Te{sub 6} Schottky contacts by current-voltage (I-V) characteristics and deep level transient spectroscopy

The temperature-dependent electrical characteristics of the Au/n-Hg{sub 3}In{sub 2}Te{sub 6} Schottky contact have been studied at the temperature range of 140 K–315 K. Based on the thermionic emission theory, the ideality factor and Schottky barrier height were calculated to decrease and increase from 3.18 to 1.88 and 0.39 eV to 0.5 eV, respectively, when the temperature rose from 140 K to 315 K. This behavior was interpreted by the lateral inhomogeneities of Schottky barrier height at the interface of Au/n-Hg{sub 3}In{sub 2}Te{sub 6} contact, which was shown by the plot of zero-bias barrier heights Φ{sub bo} versus q/2kT. Meanwhile, it was found that the Schottky barrier height with a Gaussian distribution was 0.67 eV and the standard deviation σ{sub 0} was about 0.092 eV, indicating that the uneven distribution of barrier height at the interface region. In addition, the mean value of Φ{sup ¯}{sub b0} and modified Richardson constant was determined to be 0.723 eV and 62.8 A/cm{sup 2}K{sup 2} from the slope and intercept of the ln(I{sub o}/T{sup 2}) – (qσ{sub 0}{sup 2}/2k{sup 2}T{sup 2}) versus q/kT plot, respectively. Finally, two electron trap centers were observed at the interface of Au/n-Hg{sub 3}In{sub 2}Te{sub 6} Schottky contact by means of deep level transient spectroscopy.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Learning nuclear cross sections across the chart of nuclides with graph neural networks

We explore the use of deep learning techniques to learn how nuclear cross sections change as we add or remove protons and neutrons. As a proof of principle, we focus on the neutron-induced reactions in the fast energy regime. Our approach follows a two-stage learning framework. First, we apply representation learning to encode cross section data into a latent space using either variational autoencoders (VAEs) or implicit neural representations (INRs). Then, we train graph neural networks (GNNs) on the resulting embeddings to predict missing values across the nuclear chart by leveraging the topological structure of neighboring isotopes. We demonstrate accurate cross section predictions within a 9 × 9 block of missing nuclei. We also find that the optimal GNN training strategy depends on the type of latent representation used, with VAE embeddings performing best under end-to-end optimization in the original space, while INR embeddings achieve better results when the GNN is trained only in the latent space. Furthermore, using clustering algorithms, we map groups of latent vectors into regions of the nuclear chart and show that VAEs and INRs can discover some of the neutron magic numbers. These findings suggest that deep-learning models based on the representation encoding of cross sections combined with graph neural networks hold significant potential in augmenting nuclear theory models, e.g., by providing reliable estimates of covariances of cross sections, including cross-material covariances.

Machine learning↗

Scalar bounded-from-below conditions from Bayesian active learning

We present a procedure leveraging Bayesian deep active learning to rapidly produce highly accurate approximate bounded-from-below conditions for arbitrary renormalizable scalar potentials, in the form of a neural network which may be saved and exported for use in arbitrary parameter space scans. We explore the performance of our procedure on three different scalar potentials with either highly nontrivial or unknown symbolic bounded-from-below conditions (the most general two-Higgs doublet model, the three-Higgs doublet model, and a version of the Georgi-Machacek model without custodial symmetry). We find that we can produce fast and highly accurate binary classifiers for all three potentials. Furthermore, for the potentials for which no known symbolic necessary and sufficient conditions on boundedness-from-below exist, our classifiers substantially outperform some common approximate analytical methods, such as producing tractable sufficient but not necessary conditions or evaluating boundedness-from-below conditions for scenarios in which only a subset of the theory’s fields achieve vacuum expectation values. Our methodology can be readily adapted to any renormalizable scalar field theory. For the community’s use, we have developed a package, BFBrain, which allows for the rapid implementation of our analysis procedure on user-specified scalar potentials with a high degree of customizability. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

Predicting Nugget Size of Resistance Spot Welds Using Infrared Thermal Videos With Image Segmentation and Convolutional Neural Network

Resistance spot welding (RSW) is a widely adopted joining technique in automotive industry. Recent advancement in sensing technology makes it possible to collect thermal videos of the weld nugget during RSW using an infrared (IR) camera. The effective and timely analysis of such thermal videos has the potential of enabling in situ nondestructive evaluation (NDE) of the weld nugget by predicting nugget thickness and diameter. Deep learning (DL) has demonstrated to be effective in analyzing imaging data in many applications. However, the thermal videos in RSW present unique data-level challenges that compromise the effectiveness of most pre-trained DL models. We propose a novel image segmentation method for handling the RSW thermal videos to improve the prediction performance of DL models in RSW. The proposed method transforms raw thermal videos into spatial-temporal instances in four steps: video-wise normalization, removal of uninformative images, watershed segmentation, and spatial-temporal instance construction. The extracted spatial-temporal instances serve as the input data for training a DL-based NDE model. The proposed method is able to extract high-quality data with spatial-temporal correlations in the thermal videos, while being robust to the impact of unknown surface emissivity. Overall, our case studies demonstrate that the proposed method achieves better prediction of nugget thickness and diameter than predicting without the transformation.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Performance of a high-sensitivity dedicated cardiac SPECT scanner for striatal uptake quantification in the brain based on analysis of projection data

Purpose: The authors have previously reported the advantages of high-sensitivity single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) systems for imaging structures located deep inside the brain. DaTscan (Isoflupane I-123) is a dopamine transporter (DaT) imaging agent that has shown potential for early detection of Parkinson disease (PD), as well as for monitoring progression of the disease. Realizing the full potential of DaTscan requires efficient estimation of striatal uptake from SPECT images. They have evaluated two SPECT systems, a conventional dual-head gamma camera with low-energy high-resolution collimators (conventional) and a dedicated high-sensitivity multidetector cardiac imaging system (dedicated) for imaging tasks related to PD. Methods: Cramer-Rao bounds (CRB) on precision of estimates of striatal and background activity concentrations were calculated from high-count, separate acquisitions of the compartments (right striata, left striata, background) of a striatal phantom. CRB on striatal and background activity concentration were calculated from essentially noise-free projection datasets, synthesized by scaling and summing the compartment projection datasets, for a range of total detected counts. They also calculated variances of estimates of specific-to-nonspecific binding ratios (BR) and asymmetry indices from these values using propagation of error analysis, as well as the precision of measuring changes in BR on the order of the average annual decline in early PD. Results: Under typical clinical conditions, the conventional camera detected 2 M counts while the dedicated camera detected 12 M counts. Assuming a normal BR of 5, the standard deviation of BR estimates was 0.042 and 0.021 for the conventional and dedicated system, respectively. For an 8% decrease to BR = 4.6, the signal-to-noise ratio were 6.8 (conventional) and 13.3 (dedicated); for a 5% decrease, they were 4.2 (conventional) and 8.3 (dedicated). Conclusions: This implies that PD can be detected earlier with the dedicated system than with the conventional system; therefore, earlier identification of PD progression should be possible with the high-sensitivity dedicated SPECT camera.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Dosimetric characterization and organ dose assessment in digital breast tomosynthesis: Measurements and Monte Carlo simulations using voxel phantoms

Purpose: Due to its capability to more accurately detect deep lesions inside the breast by removing the effect of overlying anatomy, digital breast tomosynthesis (DBT) has the potential to replace the standard mammography technique in clinical screening exams. However, the European Guidelines for DBT dosimetry are still a work in progress and there are little data available on organ doses other than to the breast. It is, therefore, of great importance to assess the dosimetric performance of DBT with respect to the one obtained with standard digital mammography (DM) systems. The aim of this work is twofold: (i) to study the dosimetric properties of a combined DBT/DM system (MAMMOMAT Inspiration Siemens{sup ®}) for a tungsten/rhodium (W/Rh) anode/filter combination and (ii) to evaluate organs doses during a DBT examination. Methods: For the first task, measurements were performed in manual and automatic exposure control (AEC) modes, using two homogeneous breast phantoms: a PMMA slab phantom and a 4 cm thick breast-shaped rigid phantom, with 50% of glandular tissue in its composition. Monte Carlo (MC) simulations were performed using Monte Carlo N-Particle eXtended v.2.7.0. A MC model was implemented to mimic DM and DBT acquisitions for a wide range of x-ray spectra (24 –34 kV). This was used to calculate mean glandular dose (MGD) and to compute series of backscatter factors (BSFs) that could be inserted into the DBT dosimetric formalism proposed by Dance et al. Regarding the second aim of the study, the implemented MC model of the clinical equipment, together with a female voxel phantom (“Laura”), was used to calculate organ doses considering a typical DBT acquisition. Results were compared with a standard two-view mammography craniocaudal (CC) acquisition. Results: Considering the AEC mode, the acquisition of a single CC view results in a MGD ranging from 0.53 ± 0.07 mGy to 2.41 ± 0.31 mGy in DM mode and from 0.77 ± 0.11 mGy to 2.28 ± 0.32 mGy in DBT mode. Regarding the BSF, the results achieved may lead to a MGD correction of about 6%, contributing to the improvement of the current guidelines used in these applications. Finally, considering the MC results obtained for the organ dose study, the radiation doses found for the tissues of the body other than the breast were in the range of tens of μSv, and are in part comparable to the ones obtained in standard DM. Nevertheless, in a single DBT examination, some organs (such as lung and thyroid) receive higher doses (of about 9% and 21%, respectively) with respect to the CC DM acquisition. Conclusions: Taking into account an average breast with a thickness of 4.5 cm, the MGDs for DM and DBT acquisitions were below the achievable value (2.0 mGy) defined by the European protocol. Additionally, in the case of a fusion imaging study (DM + DBT), the MGD for a 4.5 cm thick breast is of the order of 1.88 ± 0.36 mGy. Finally, organ dose evaluations underline the need to improve awareness concerning dose estimation of DBT exams for some organs, especially when radiation risk is assessed by using the effective dose.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Comprehensive, Quantitative Risk Assessment of CO 2 Geologic Sequestration (Final Technical Report)

A Quantitative Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (QFMEA) was developed to conduct comprehensive, quantitative risk assessments on CO 2 capture, transportation, and sequestration or use in deep saline aquifers, enhanced oil recovery operations, or enhanced coal bed methane operations. The model identifies and characterizes potential risks; identifies the likely failure modes, causes, effects and methods of detection; lists possible risk prevention and risk mitigation steps; estimates potential damage recovery costs, mitigation costs and costs savings resulting from mitigation; and ranks (prioritizes) risks according to the probability of failure, the severity of failure, the difficulty of early failure detection and the potential for fatalities. The QFMEA model generates the necessary information needed for effective project risk management. Diverse project information can be integrated into a concise, common format that allows comprehensive, quantitative analysis, by a cross-functional team of experts, to determine: What can possibly go wrong? How much will damage recovery cost? How can it be prevented or mitigated? What is the cost savings or benefit of prevention or mitigation? Which risks should be given highest priority for resolution? The QFMEA model can be tailored to specific projects and is applicable to new projects as well as mature projects. The model can be revised and updated as new information comes available. It accepts input from multiple sources, such as literature searches, site characterization, field data, computer simulations, analogues, process influence diagrams, probability density functions, financial analysis models, cost factors, and heuristic best practices manuals, and converts the information into a standardized format in an Excel spreadsheet. Process influence diagrams, geologic models, financial models, cost factors and an insurance schedule were developed to support the QFMEA model. Comprehensive, quantitative risk assessments were conducted on three (3) sites using the QFMEA model: (1) SACROC Northern Platform CO 2 -EOR Site in the Permian Basin, Scurry County, TX, (2) Pump Canyon CO 2 -ECBM Site in the San Juan Basin, San Juan County, NM, and (3) Farnsworth Unit CO 2 -EOR Site in the Anadarko Basin, Ochiltree County, TX. The sites were sufficiently different from each other to test the robustness of the QFMEA model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Effective Access Monitoring at Geological Repositories

Access points at a deep, mined geological repository (GR) for the disposal of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) and other nuclear wastes present potential diversion paths for nuclear material. Because C/S measures are not likely to be used underground, access to a GR will require unprecedented reliance on C/S measures to maintain continuity of knowledge (CoK) on SNF buried underground. We develop a model GR based on common features of GR designs from national programs in order to develop and optimize C/S measures for GR access points that maximize confidence that CoK is maintained on SNF underground. Critical access points identified in this study are surface entrances to (1) the GR ramp (2) the excavation shaft, (3) the main elevator shaft, and (4) the ventilation shaft. The first three are considered critical detection points (DPs), whereas the fourth is considered a non-critical DP. The reason for the distinction is due to the different design capabilities of shaft components: the first three (ramp, excavation shaft, main elevator) are all capable of being used to move material from the underground to the surface, whereas the ventilation shaft is not. Such capabilities are verified during periodic design information verification (DIV) inspections.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Topaz, a Potential Volatile-Carrier in Cold Subduction Zone: Constraint from Synchrotron X-ray Diffraction and Raman Spectroscopy at High Temperature and High Pressure

The equation of state and stability of topaz at high-pressure/high-temperature conditions have been investigated by in situ synchrotron X-ray diffraction (XRD) and Raman spectroscopy in this study. No phase transition occurs on topaz over the experimental pressure–temperature ($P-T$) range. The pressure–volume data were fitted by the third-order Birch–Murnaghan equation of state (EoS) with the zero-pressure unit–cell volume V 0 = 343.86 (9) Å 3 , the zero-pressure bulk modulus K 0 = 172 (3) GPa, and its pressure derivative K’ 0 = 1.3 (4), while the obtained K 0 = 155 (2) GPa when fixed K’ 0 = 4. In the pressure range of 0–24.4 GPa, the vibration modes of in-plane bending OH-groups for topaz show non-linear changes with the increase in pressure, while the other vibration modes show linear changes. Moreover, the temperature–volume data were fitted by Fei’s thermal equation with the thermal expansion coefficient α 300 = 1.9 (1) × 10 –5 K –1 at 300 K. Finally, the $P-T$ stability of topaz was studied by a synchrotron-based single-crystal XRD at simultaneously high $P-T$ conditions up to ~10.9 GPa and 700 K, which shows that topaz may maintain a metastable state at depths above 370 km in the upper mantle along the coldest subducting slab geotherm. Thus, topaz may be a potential volatile-carrier in the cold subduction zone. It can carry hydrogen and fluorine elements into the deep upper mantle and further affect the geochemical behavior of the upper mantle.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Searching for Pairs of Higgs Bosons in the LHC Run 2 Dataset

The discovery of the Higgs boson confirms the existence of a scalar sector of the standard model, responsible for electroweak symmetry breaking, but the nature and properties of the potential at the origin of this mechanism are still unknown. By studying the production of pairs of Higgs bosons (HH), physicists can directly measure the coupling of the Higgs boson to itself and thus determine the shape of this potential, which has far-reaching implications on the origin and evolution of our Universe. Because of this deep connection to the foundations of electroweak symmetry breaking, HH production is also an ideal place to search for manifestations of yet-unknown physics, such as modifications of the strength of the self-coupling and of the interaction between pairs of vector bosons and Higgs bosons. In this review article, we summarize the current searches for HH production at ATLAS and CMS, using the LHC Run 2 dataset, discuss the implications of our current constraints on physics beyond the standard model, and briefly review prospect for future HH searches.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Identification of z ≳ 2 Herschel 500 μm sources using color deconfusion

We present a new method to search for candidate z ≳ 2 Herschel 500 μm sources in the Great Observatories Origins Deep Survey-North field using a S{sub 500 μm}/S{sub 24 μm} “color deconfusion” technique. Potential high-z sources are selected against low-redshift ones from their large 500 to 24 μm flux density ratios. By effectively reducing the contribution from low-redshift populations to the observed 500 μm emission, we are able to identify counterparts to high-z 500 μm sources whose 24 μm fluxes are relatively faint. The recovery of known z ≳ 4 starbursts confirms the efficiency of this approach in selecting high-z Herschel sources. The resulting sample consists of 34 dusty star-forming galaxies at z ≳ 2. The inferred infrared luminosities are in the range 1.5 × 10{sup 12}–1.8 × 10{sup 13} L{sub ⊙}, corresponding to dust-obscured star formation rates (SFRs) of ∼260–3100 M{sub ⊙} yr{sup −1} for a Salpeter initial mass function. Comparison with previous SCUBA 850 μm-selected galaxy samples shows that our method is more efficient at selecting high-z dusty galaxies, with a median redshift of z=3.07±0.83 and with 10 of the sources at z ≳ 4. We find that at a fixed luminosity, the dust temperature is ∼5 K cooler than that expected from the T{sub d}−L{sub IR} relation at z ≲ 1, though different temperature selection effects should be taken into account. The radio-detected subsample (excluding three strong active galactic nucleus) follows the far-infrared (far-IR)/radio correlation at lower redshifts, and no evolution with redshift is observed out to z∼5, suggesting that the far-IR emission is star formation dominated. The contribution of the high-z Herschel 500 μm sources to the cosmic SFR density is comparable to that of (sub)millimeter galaxy populations at z∼2.5 and at least 40% of the extinction-corrected UV samples at z∼4. Further investigation into the nature of these high-z dusty galaxies will be crucial for our understanding of the star formation histories and the buildup of stellar mass at the earliest cosmic epochs.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Stirling Convertor for the Stirling Radioisotope Generator Tested as a Prelude to Transition to Flight

The Stirling Radioisotope Generator (SRG) is currently being developed by Lockheed Martin Astronautics (Valley Forge, PA) under contract to the Department of Energy (Germantown, MD). In support of this project, the NASA Glenn Research Center has established a near-term technology effort to provide some of the critical data to ensure a successful transition to flight for what will be the first dynamic power system to be used in space. The generator will be a high-efficiency electric power source for potential use on NASA space science missions. The generator will be able to operate in the vacuum of deep space or in an atmosphere such as on the surface of Mars. High system efficiency is obtained through the use of free-piston Stirling power-conversion technology. The power output of the generator will be greater than 100 W at the beginning of life, with the slow decline in power being largely due to decay of the plutonium heat source. Previously, Glenn's supporting technology efforts focused only on the most critical technical issues.

Schreiber, Jeffrey G.↗

Combined GMSK Communications and PN Ranging

A document discusses a method by which GMSK (Gaussian minimum shift keying) modulation and a pseudonoise (PN) ranging signal may be combined. By isolating the in-phase and quadrature components after carrier lock, and extracting their low-pass and band-pass filtered components, there is enough information available to both demodulate data and track the PN signal. The proposed combined GMSK communications and PN ranging is one potential approach to address emerging requirements for simultaneous high data rate communications from and tracking of vehicles in deep space or at the Moon.

Orr, Richard↗

Z-Pinch Fusion Propulsion

Fusion-based nuclear propulsion has the potential to enable fast interplanetary transportation. Shorter trips are better for humans in the harmful radiation environment of deep space. Nuclear propulsion and power plants can enable high Ispand payload mass fractions because they require less fuel mass. Fusion energy research has characterized the Z-Pinch dense plasma focus method. (1) Lightning is form of pinched plasma electrical discharge phenomena. (2) Wire array Z-Pinch experiments are commonly studied and nuclear power plant configurations have been proposed. (3) Used in the field of Nuclear Weapons Effects (NWE) testing in the defense industry, nuclear weapon x-rays are simulated through Z-Pinch phenomena.

Miernik, Janie↗

Gateway Lunar Habitat Modules as the Basis for a Modular Mars Transit Habitat

This paper provides a summary of the results from a recent concept study of various configurations for a Mars Transit Habitat. The designs considered are composed of modules based on published contractor concepts proposed for the lunar Gateway through NASA’s NextSTEP program. Using these Gateway concepts as a starting point for the design of a Mars Transit Habitat has potential advantages. Both Gateway and Mars Transit Habitats will have similar requirements for long-term operations in deep space, autonomous and remote operations when the crew is not onboard, and similar requirements for transferring crew to and from a planetary surface—the Moon and Mars respectively. The contractor designs for Gateway were traded against a monolithic transit habitat previously proposed by NASA’s Mars Integration Group. In addition, these concepts were considered for a “shakedown” mission for the transit habitat hardware in cislunar space to build confidence in new systems, including the advanced environmental control and life support systems needed for Mars missions. The results presented include overall vehicle configurations, mass, and volume estimates for the selected design concepts. Two concepts using large expandable modules are identified as leading candidates for a Mars Transit Habitat and the remaining elements are identified as representative of the habitable pressure vessels needed for safe haven configurations, logistics modules, surface habitats, rovers, and descent and ascent crew cabins in the overall Mars Architecture.

Smitherman, David↗

A High Inclination Solar Mission Enabled by Near-Term Solar Sail Propulsion

Our current understanding of the Sun, its atmosphere, and the heliosphere is severely limited by a lack of good observations of the Sun’s polar regions. A High Inclination Solar Mission (HISM) mission would go into a 0.48-AU circular solar orbit with at least a 60° inclination to conduct long-term observations of the Sun’s poles using both situ and remote-sensing instruments to study the connections between the Sun, the solar wind, and solar energetic particle events. The propulsion requirements to implement HISM are beyond the capability of conventional chemical propulsion and extremely challenging even for highly efficient solar electric propulsion. To enable HISM and a host of other propulsion-intense space science missions, NASA is actively developing solar sail propulsion, capable of continuous low thrust for the extended periods of time required to meet the delta V requirements of HISM. Upcoming solar sail missions include the Near Earth Asteroid (NEA) Scout (2021 planned launch) and Solar Cruiser (candidate for flight in 2024).Solar sails use sunlight to propel vehicles through space by reflecting solar photons from a large, highly-reflective sail. This continuous photon pressure provides propellantless thrust, allowing for very high delta V maneuvers on long-duration, deep-space exploration. Since the Sun supplies the necessary propulsive energy, solar sails require no onboard propellant, thereby potentially increasing useful payload mass. The NASA MSFC Advanced Concepts Office recently completed a detailed mission concept study of HISM based on the solar sail propulsion technologies being developed for NEA Scout and Solar Cruiser. The HISM spacecraft concept envisions carrying a Doppler & Stokes Imager, a coronagraph, magnetometer, Faraday Cup, a plasma spectrometer, and a radio and plasma wave package to meet the science objectives established for a solar polar orbiting mission in the Heliophysics Decadal Survey. This paper will describe the mission concept and its solar sail propulsion system

Solar Sail↗

Disruptive Technologies and Their Putative Impacts Upon Society and Aerospace- Entering The Virtual Age

Developments in technology over the recent decades have been extraordinary. They include the IT, bio, nano, and now quantum and energetics technology arenas and their many combinatorial interactions and impacts. In the main, these are at the frontiers of the small and in a combinational, synergistic feeding frenzy with each other. They fall under the broad category of Disruptive Technologies and have greatly altered society. The outlook for the runout of these and other technology developments augers mid-term to later alterations in components of the human existence theorem, including the requirement to work for our living and our physiological makeup and longevity (Ref 1). The IT revolution began in the 1950s with the development of solid-state electronics. The biologics revolution began later in the 1960s and 1970s with DNA and genomics, and the nano revolution in the 1990s with self-forming nano systems and carbon nanotubes. Quantum technology is now developing rapidly, aided by enabling nano systems, and the energetics revolution is providing ever more efficient and less expensive renewable energy sources. The IT revolution has produced improvements of an astounding eleven orders of magnitude in computing speed since the late 1950s. As we shift from silicon to biological, optical, nano, molecular, and atomic computing, improvements of some 4 orders of magnitude are evidently possible from either optical or DNA computing [Refs 2and 3], then there are combinatorials. Then there is quantum computing, under development worldwide for an increasing number of applications and proffering phenomenal capabilities. The current fastest computers are considerably beyond human brain speed. Machine intelligence is developing well after decades of inadequate machine capability, now no longer the case, and a detour into expert systems. Researchers in machine intelligence are now pursuing deep learning approaches using neural nets, which are proving to be extremely useful. Some believe the frontier of potential human-level machine intelligence may be found in biomimetics and brain-emulation approaches. There is even a possibility of “emergence”—i.e., when the machine intelligence is complex enough that it “wakes up,” as when human intelligence emerged via evolution during the million-plus years of the hunter-gatherer epoch [ Ref 4]. In fact, some posit that human intelligence can be improved upon and is only a cul-de-sac of what is conceivable. The IT revolution has produced massive changes in human society and economics—from the Internet, enabling the rapid expansion of knowledgeability (and even what is knowable), to an increasingly pervasive trend of “tele-everything.” The extraordinary compilation, storage, and availability of truly massive amounts of information could, when combined with AI and under the mantra of “big data,” greatly improve many of our technical and commercial processes and their content including elucidating new heuristic governing laws.

Dennis M. Bushnell↗