Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “decision analysis”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,315 records · Page 73

Two-Dimensional Neutronic and Fuel Cycle Analysis of the Transatomic Power Molten Salt Reactor

This status report presents the results from the first phase of the collaboration between Transatomic Power Corporation (TAP) and Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) to provide neutronic and fuel cycle analysis of the TAP core design through the Department of Energy Gateway for Accelerated Innovation in Nuclear, Nuclear Energy Voucher program. The TAP design is a molten salt reactor using movable moderator rods to shift the neutron spectrum in the core from mostly epithermal at beginning of life to thermal at end of life. Additional developments in the ChemTriton modeling and simulation tool provide the critical moderator-to-fuel ratio searches and time-dependent parameters necessary to simulate the continuously changing physics in this complex system. Results from simulations with these tools show agreement with TAP-calculated performance metrics for core lifetime, discharge burnup, and salt volume fraction, verifying the viability of reducing actinide waste production with this design. Additional analyses of time step sizes, mass feed rates and enrichments, and isotopic removals provide additional information to make informed design decisions. This work further demonstrates capabilities of ORNL modeling and simulation tools for analysis of molten salt reactor designs and strongly positions this effort for the upcoming three-dimensional core analysis.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Visual‐Analytics Bridge Complexity and Accessibility for Robust Urban Water Planning

Urban water resources planning is complicated by unprecedented uncertainty in supply and demand. Real‐world planning often simplifies the full range of uncertainty faced by a system into a limited set of deterministic scenarios to enhance accessibility for decision‐makers and the public. However, overlooking uncertainty can expose the system to failures. On the other end of the spectrum, academically developed tools for scenario analysis rigorously quantify the combined effects of multiple sources of uncertainty, but the practical application of these models is limited by the challenges of information visualization and communication of results. In short, municipal water supply planners lack access to planning frameworks that effectively integrate a rigorous treatment of uncertainty with accessible, user‐friendly visual and interactive tools to enhance user accessibility. In this work, we fill this gap by proposing Visual‐Robust Decision Making, and demonstrate an application for the city of Santa Barbara (SB), CA. Santa Barbara faces multiple uncertainties from pending state and federal regulations to changing hydrology and water demand. The city seeks to increase its water portfolio robustness by expanding its seawater desalination plant, but must decide how much capacity to add. We introduce computational tools that assess uncertainty across nine uncertain drivers identified with the help of water planners in SB. To allow public participation in the desalination expansion decision, we develop interactive visual‐analytics to aid decision‐makers and stakeholders in navigating complex scenario analysis outcomes. Our results quantify the tradeoffs between increased capacity and system robustness and aim to enhance participation and uncertainty characterization of urban water planning efforts.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Search for s channel single top quark production in pp collisions at $ \sqrt{s}=7 $ and 8 TeV

In this study, a search is presented for single top quark production in the s channel in proton-proton collisions with the CMS detector at the CERN LHC in decay modes of the top quark containing a muon or an electron in the final state. The signal is extracted through a maximum-likelihood fit to the distribution of a multivariate discriminant defined using boosted decision trees to separate the expected signal contribution from background processes. The analysis uses data collected at centre-of-mass energies of 7 and 8 TeV and corresponding to integrated luminosities of 5.1 and 19.7 fb –1 , respectively. The measured cross sections of 7.1 ± 8.1 pb (at 7 TeV) and 13.4 ± 7.3 pb (at 8 TeV) result in a best fit value of 2.0 ± 0.9 for the combined ratio of the measured and expected values. The signal significance is 2.5 standard deviations, and the upper limit on the rate relative to the standard model expectation is 4.7 at 95% confidence level.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

External perturbation-driven Sabatier breakthrough

The Sabatier reaction (CO 2 + 4H 2 → CH 4 + 2H 2 O) is gaining renewed interest due to its potential to reduce energy carrier storage costs, serve as a feedstock for various organic chemicals, and supply in-situ propellant and life-support resources for long-duration Mars missions. This study demonstrates that combining a modest 2 mA electric field with H 2 feed modulation markedly elevates the CO 2 hydrogenation activity of 2 wt% Ru/CeO 2 catalyst. CO 2 conversion reaches 88 % and 93 % with a CH 4 yield of 83 % and 89 % at 350 °C and 450 °C, respectively. A simple lumped kinetic model reveals that the combined external perturbations not only shift the reaction mechanism but also redistribute key surface-adsorbed intermediates such as hydrogen adatoms and hydrogen-activated CO 2 among the Ru clusters, Ru/CeO 2 interface, and ceria surface. The electric field accelerates the conversion of adsorbed CO 2 to the hydrogenated CO 2 species on Ru and boosts CH 4 formation rate constant, while simultaneously suppresses the formation of undesired, non-reactive surface intermediates. Degree-of-rate-control analysis pinpoints proton migration across the metal-support interface as the decisive lever under these coupled perturbations. In conclusion, these findings establish that rational pairing of metal-support design with well-tuned electric fields and feed oscillations can unlock unprecedented Sabatier rates, guiding the development of next-generation reactors for efficient CO 2 to CH 4 conversion.

10 - SYNTHETIC FUELS↗

Temporal Lobe Reactions After Carbon Ion Radiation Therapy: Comparison of Relative Biological Effectiveness–Weighted Tolerance Doses Predicted by Local Effect Models I and IV

Purpose: To compare the relative biological effectiveness (RBE)–weighted tolerance doses for temporal lobe reactions after carbon ion radiation therapy using 2 different versions of the local effect model (LEM I vs LEM IV) for the same patient collective under identical conditions. Methods and Materials: In a previous study, 59 patients were investigated, of whom 10 experienced temporal lobe reactions (TLR) after carbon ion radiation therapy for low-grade skull-base chordoma and chondrosarcoma at Helmholtzzentrum für Schwerionenforschung (GSI) in Darmstadt, Germany in 2002 and 2003. TLR were detected as visible contrast enhancements on T1-weighted MRI images within a median follow-up time of 2.5 years. Although the derived RBE-weighted temporal lobe doses were based on the clinically applied LEM I, we have now recalculated the RBE-weighted dose distributions using LEM IV and derived dose-response curves with Dmax,V-1 cm³ (the RBE-weighted maximum dose in the remaining temporal lobe volume, excluding the volume of 1 cm³ with the highest dose) as an independent dosimetric variable. The resulting RBE-weighted tolerance doses were compared with those of the previous study to assess the clinical impact of LEM IV relative to LEM I. Results: The dose-response curve of LEM IV is shifted toward higher values compared to that of LEM I. The RBE-weighted tolerance dose for a 5% complication probability (TD{sub 5}) increases from 68.8 ± 3.3 to 78.3 ± 4.3 Gy (RBE) for LEM IV as compared to LEM I. Conclusions: LEM IV predicts a clinically significant increase of the RBE-weighted tolerance doses for the temporal lobe as compared to the currently applied LEM I. The limited available photon data do not allow a final conclusion as to whether RBE predictions of LEM I or LEM IV better fit better clinical experience in photon therapy. The decision about a future clinical application of LEM IV therefore requires additional analysis of temporal lobe reactions in a comparable photon-treated collective using the same dosimetric variable as in the present study.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Planck 2013 results. XVI. Cosmological parameters

This paper presents the first cosmological results based on Planck measurements of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) temperature and lensing-potential power spectra. We find that the Planck spectra at high multipoles (&ell; ≳ 40) are extremely well described by the standard spatially-flat six-parameter ΛCDM cosmology with a power-law spectrum of adiabatic scalar perturbations. Within the context of this cosmology, the Planck data determine the cosmological parameters to high precision: the angular size of the sound horizon at recombination, the physical densities of baryons and cold dark matter, and the scalar spectral index are estimated to be θ &lowast; = (1.04147 ± 0.00062) × 10 -2 , Ω b h 2 = 0.02205 ± 0.00028, Ω c h 2 = 0.1199 ± 0.0027, and n s = 0.9603 ± 0.0073, respectively (note that in this abstract we quote 68% errors on measured parameters and 95% upper limits on other parameters). For this cosmology, we find a low value of the Hubble constant, H 0 = (67.3 ± 1.2) km s -1 Mpc -1 , and a high value of the matter density parameter, Ω m = 0.315 ± 0.017. These values are in tension with recent direct measurements of H 0 and the magnitude-redshift relation for Type Ia supernovae, but are in excellent agreement with geometrical constraints from baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) surveys. Including curvature, we find that the Universe is consistent with spatial flatness to percent level precision using Planck CMB data alone. We use high-resolution CMB data together with Planck to provide greater control on extragalactic foreground components in an investigation of extensions to the six-parameter ΛCDM model. We present selected results from a large grid of cosmological models, using a range of additional astrophysical data sets in addition to Planck and high-resolution CMB data. None of these models are favoured over the standard six-parameter ΛCDM cosmology. The deviation of the scalar spectral index from unity is insensitive to the addition of tensor modes and to changes in the matter content of the Universe. We find an upper limit of r 0.002 < 0.11 on the tensor-to-scalar ratio. There is no evidence for additional neutrino-like relativistic particles beyond the three families of neutrinos in the standard model. Using BAO and CMB data, we find N eff = 3.30 ± 0.27 for the effective number of relativistic degrees of freedom, and an upper limit of 0.23 eV for the sum of neutrino masses. Our results are in excellent agreement with big bang nucleosynthesis and the standard value of N eff = 3.046. We find no evidence for dynamical dark energy; using BAO and CMB data, the dark energy equation of state parameter is constrained to be w = -1.13 -0.10 +0.13 . We also use the Planck data to set limits on a possible variation of the fine-structure constant, dark matter annihilation and primordial magnetic fields. Despite the success of the six-parameter ΛCDM model in describing the Planck data at high multipoles, we note that this cosmology does not provide a good fit to the temperature power spectrum at low multipoles. The unusual shape of the spectrum in the multipole range 20 ≲ &ell; ≲ 40 was seen previously in the WMAP data and is a real feature of the primordial CMB anisotropies. The poor fit to the spectrum at low multipoles is not of decisive significance, but is an "anomaly" in an otherwise self-consistent analysis of the Planck temperature data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Design and Modeling of a Prototype Floating Membrane Reservoir System Application for Pumped Storage Hydropower

Design and modeling were performed for a prototype floating membrane reservoir system for closed-loop pumped storage hydropower (PSH) application. Typically, new construction of PSH requires high up-front development costs and long investment return periods. The proposed floating membrane reservoir system innovative technology would eliminate the need for highly disruptive and costly reservoir construction. Such modular systems may ultimately provide reliable, flexible power generation and can be replicated multiple times to increase energy storage capacity. This paper documents the modeling response analysis completed to refine and validate the design prior to the testing of the prototype. Computational fluid dynamics modeling efforts were completed to assess hydrostatic and hydrodynamic forces acting on the reservoir for several deployment and alignment arrangements. The system stability was evaluated using material stress and frequency response analysis. The conclusions, based on hydrodynamic and structural response modeling, support a decision to move forward with construction, deployment, and testing of the innovative prototype floating reservoir system.

Hadjerioua, Boualem↗

Comprehensive Approach to Measure the Mobility Energy Productivity of Freight Transport

Freight travel accounts for a major share of the energy consumed in the transportation sector in any country, and the United States is no exception. Understanding and modeling freight movement are critical, particularly in the context of capturing the impact of emerging technologies on freight travel and its externalities. The domain of freight modeling and forecasting has been gaining pace in recent years, but advancement in comprehensive freight performance metrics is still lagging. Conventional freight performance metrics such as truck-miles, ton-miles, or value-miles are unidimensional and aggregate in nature, making them unsuitable to accurately capture the impact of emerging transportation trends on the performance or productivity of freight systems. Addressing the research need, this paper presents the “Freight Mobility Energy Productivity” metric to quantify freight productivity of current as well as future freight systems, accounting for various costs associated with freight transport. The proposed metric was implemented using data from the Freight Analysis Framework along with other published sources, and shows intuitive results in quantifying freight productivity. Further, a scenario analysis exercise was conducted to test the capability of the metric in tracking improvements in system-level freight productivity as a result of vehicle electrification. The relative differences in Freight Mobility Energy Productivity scores help identify which zones benefit from the vehicle powertrain technology improvement. The results of the scenario analysis reinforce confidence that the proposed metric can be used as a decision support tool in assessing the productivity of existing as well as future freight trends and technologies.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Analyzing School Bus Electrification in Richmond, Virginia

School buses are an essential component of the transportation infrastructure, serving as a lifeline for students across the globe. However, the widespread use of diesel school buses has raised concerns about the health impact on millions of students exposed to harmful emissions daily. Recognizing this issue, school districts worldwide are urgently seeking cleaner energy alternatives. Electric school buses emerge as an environmentally friendly and sustainable option, fostering a healthier environment for both students and communities. However, school bus electrification faces the challenges of high upfront cost, cumbersome charging management, and constraints from power grids. To help school bus operators address those challenges, this study presents a data-driven analysis for school bus electrification. This study considered a real-world school bus system in Richmond, VA, and developed a mathematical programming model to analyze the system design, charging strategies, and charging load profiles for the electrification scenario. The study evaluated different charging strategies based on model outcomes, aiming to optimize efficiency and effectiveness. Ultimately, this research generated electric school bus charging demand profiles under various scenarios, shedding light on the feasibility and implications of transitioning to electric-powered school buses.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Rock Valley Dense Gravity Acquisition

Characterizing the shallow structure of the Rock Valley region of the Nevada National Security Site is a critical component of the Rock Valley Direct Comparison project. Geophysical data of the region is needed for operational decisions, to constrain geologic models used for simulation, and to facilitate the analysis of future explosive source data. Local measurements of gravity are a key piece of geophysical information that helps to resolve the underlying geologic composition, fault structure, and density characteristics, yet, in the Rock Valley region these measurements are sparse on the scale of the testbed. In this report, we present the details of a recent gravity data acquisition survey designed to collect a dense dataset in the region of interest that complements the existing gravity work but greatly enhances our resolution. This dataset will be integrated with a complementary Los Alamos National Laboratory gravity collection and combined with the existing seismic data in a joint inversion. These measurements were conducted over two weeks with a portable gravimeter and high-resolution GPS and include repeat measurements at a USGS base station as well as reoccupation of gravity sites in the regional dataset. This collection of over 100 new dense gravity measurements will facilitate refinement of the existing Geologic Framework Model and directly complement newly acquired dense seismic data, ultimately improving the project’s ability to investigate the direct comparison of shallow earthquake and explosive sources.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Thermal Reservoir Networks for Modularly Expandable Thermal Microgrids

The Department of Defense (DoD) faces the substantial challenge of cost-effectively retrofitting one to two installations per month, each comprising approximately 1,000 buildings, to improve resilience, reduce energy consumption, and enhance energy supply security. Achieving these objectives requires optimal system selection and effective risk mitigation during system integration. To address this need, we introduce Platform-Based Design (PBD), a structured, hierarchical methodology adapted from other industrial sectors to the domain of energy system retrofits. We demonstrate the effectiveness of PBD through a techno-economic feasibility study comparing geothermal-coupled thermal energy networks (TENs) with conventional energy systems for heating, cooling, and powering 17 buildings at Joint Base Andrews (JBA) in Maryland. Our analysis illustrates that the PBD approach enables rigorous, data-driven, sequential decision making, resulting in a family of Pareto-optimal systems, among which the TEN emerged as the most promising solution. The selected TEN design integrates geothermal borefields, heat recovery heat pumps, photovoltaic (PV) arrays, and battery storage. Compared to the baseline system – gas heating combined with air-source chillers – the proposed TEN reduces annual imported energy by 74% and peak electricity demand by 45%, achieves a levelized cost of energy of $\$0.210$/kWh, and substantially enhances resilience. Life-cycle costs increase by approximately 6%, and initial investment costs are about 2.5 times higher than the baseline. However, if central plant infrastructure, district loops, and utility-scale PV and battery systems are privately funded and operated, the initial investment would fall below the baseline system cost. Critical to achieving these significant performance improvements were detailed nonlinear dynamic simulations coupling geothermal heat transfer, energy system operation, and realistic feedback control logic. These simulations identified essential design modifications and control strategy refinements that substantially reduced energy use, peak demand, and compressor shortcycling, thereby improving durability and reliability—issues that would have been significantly more expensive to resolve during operation. Additionally, the verification step highlighted sensitivities to key design parameters that could reduce initial investment by approximately $\$2$ million and reduce annual life-cycle costs more than $\$300,000$. We recommend adopting the PBD methodology for future feasibility studies and TEN pilot projects to gain valuable operational experience. Furthermore, we recommend that DoD invest in transferring and scaling the PBD methodology to other installations. This entails developing standardized computational frameworks and component libraries as well as training industry in conducting PBD. Such investments would enable rapid, robust, reliable, and cost-effective retrofits, supporting DoD’s ambitious energy system modernization goals.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Dataset For: A Guide to Residential Energy Storage and Rooftop Solar: State Net Metering Policies and Utility Rate Tariff Structures

Federal and state decarbonization goals have led to numerous financial incentives and policies designed to increase access and adoption of renewable energy systems. In combination with the declining cost of both solar photovoltaic and battery energy storage systems and rising electric utility rates, residential renewable adoption has become more favorable than ever. However, not all states provide the same opportunity for cost recovery, and the complicated and changing policy and utility landscape can make it difficult for households to make an informed decision on whether to install a renewable system. This paper is intended to provide a guide to households considering renewable adoption by introducing relevant factors that influence renewable system performance and payback, summarized in a state lookup table for quick reference. Five states are chosen as case studies to perform economic optimizations based on net metering policy, utility rate structure, and average electric utility price; these states are selected to be representative of the possible combinations of factors to aid in the decision-making process for customers in all states. The results of this analysis highlight the dual importance of both state support for renewables and price signals, as the benefits of residential renewable systems are best realized in states with net metering policies facing the challenge of above-average electric utility rates. This dataset is intended to allow readers to reproduce and customize the analysis performed in this work to their benefit. Suggested modifications include: location, household load profile, rate tariff structure, and renewable energy system design.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Pattern recognition principles

The present work gives an account of basic principles and available techniques for the analysis and design of pattern processing and recognition systems. Areas covered include decision functions, pattern classification by distance functions, pattern classification by likelihood functions, the perceptron and the potential function approaches to trainable pattern classifiers, statistical approach to trainable classifiers, pattern preprocessing and feature selection, and syntactic pattern recognition.

Tou, J. T.↗

Sensitivity of wildlife habitat models to uncertainties in GIS data

Decision makers need to know the reliability of output products from GIS analysis. For many GIS applications, it is not possible to compare these products to an independent measure of 'truth'. Sensitivity analysis offers an alternative means of estimating reliability. In this paper, we present a CIS-based statistical procedure for estimating the sensitivity of wildlife habitat models to uncertainties in input data and model assumptions. The approach is demonstrated in an analysis of habitat associations derived from a GIS database for the endangered California condor. Alternative data sets were generated to compare results over a reasonable range of assumptions about several sources of uncertainty. Sensitivity analysis indicated that condor habitat associations are relatively robust, and the results have increased our confidence in our initial findings. Uncertainties and methods described in the paper have general relevance for many GIS applications.

Stoms, David M.↗

The Deep Space Network information system in the year 2000

The Deep Space Network (DSN), the largest, most sensitive scientific communications and radio navigation network in the world, is considered. Focus is made on the telemetry processing, monitor and control, and ground data transport architectures of the DSN ground information system envisioned for the year 2000. The telemetry architecture will be unified from the front-end area to the end user. It will provide highly automated monitor and control of the DSN, automated configuration of support activities, and a vastly improved human interface. Automated decision support systems will be in place for DSN resource management, performance analysis, fault diagnosis, and contingency management.

Markley, R. W.↗

A fuzzy logic intelligent diagnostic system for spacecraft integrated vehicle health management

Due to the complexity of future space missions and the large amount of data involved, greater autonomy in data processing is demanded for mission operations, training, and vehicle health management. In this paper, we develop a fuzzy logic intelligent diagnostic system to perform data reduction, data analysis, and fault diagnosis for spacecraft vehicle health management applications. The diagnostic system contains a data filter and an inference engine. The data filter is designed to intelligently select only the necessary data for analysis, while the inference engine is designed for failure detection, warning, and decision on corrective actions using fuzzy logic synthesis. Due to its adaptive nature and on-line learning ability, the diagnostic system is capable of dealing with environmental noise, uncertainties, conflict information, and sensor faults.

Wu, G. Gordon↗

The Development and Evaluation of an Operational Aerobraking Strategy for the Mars 2001 Odyssey Orbiter

The Mars 2001 Odyssey Orbiter successfully completed the aerobraking phase of its mission on January 11, 2002. This paper discusses the support provided by NASA's Langley Research Center to the navigation team at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in the planning and operational support of Mars Odyssey Aerobraking. Specifically, the development of a three-degree-of-freedom aerobraking trajectory simulation and its application to pre-flight planning activities as well as operations is described. The importance of running the simulation in a Monte Carlo fashion to capture the effects of mission and atmospheric uncertainties is demonstrated, and the utility of including predictive logic within the simulation that could mimic operational maneuver decision-making is shown. A description is also provided of how the simulation was adapted to support flight operations as both a validation and risk reduction tool and as a means of obtaining a statistical basis for maneuver strategy decisions. This latter application was the first use of Monte Carlo trajectory analysis in an aerobraking mission.

Tartabini, Paul V.↗

Food Security, Decision Making and the Use of Remote Sensing in Famine Early Warning Systems

Famine early warning systems use remote sensing in combination with socio-economic and household food economy analysis to provide timely and rigorous information on emerging food security crises. The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) is the US Agency for International Development's decision support system in 20 African countries, as well as in Guatemala, Haiti and Afghanistan. FEWS NET provides early and actionable policy guidance for the US Government and its humanitarian aid partners. As we move into an era of climate change where weather hazards will become more frequent and severe, understanding how to provide quantitative and actionable scientific information for policy makers using biophysical data is critical for an appropriate and effective response.

Brown, Molly E.↗