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DOE OSTI2017

A Pattern Language for High-Performance Computing Resilience

High-performance computing systems (HPC) provide powerful capabilities for modeling, simulation, and data analytics for a broad class of computational problems. They enable extreme performance of the order of quadrillion floating-point arithmetic calculations per second by aggregating the power of millions of compute, memory, networking and storage components. With the rapidly growing scale and complexity of HPC systems for achieving even greater performance, ensuring their reliable operation in the face of system degradations and failures is a critical challenge. System fault events often lead the scientific applications to produce incorrect results, or may even cause their untimely termination. The sheer number of components in modern extreme-scale HPC systems and the complex interactions and dependencies among the hardware and software components, the applications, and the physical environment makes the design of practical solutions that support fault resilience a complex undertaking. To manage this complexity, we developed a methodology for designing HPC resilience solutions using design patterns. We codified the well-known techniques for handling faults, errors and failures that have been devised, applied and improved upon over the past three decades in the form of design patterns. In this paper, we present a pattern language to enable a structured approach to the development of HPC resilience solutions. The pattern language reveals the relations among the resilience patterns and provides the means to explore alternative techniques for handling a specific fault model that may have different efficiency and complexity characteristics. Using the pattern language enables the design and implementation of comprehensive resilience solutions as a set of interconnected resilience patterns that can be instantiated across layers of the system stack.

Hukerikar, Saurabh↗

DOE OSTI2016

Bayesian optimization of the Community Land Model simulated biosphere-atmosphere exchange using CO 2 observations from a dense tower network and aircraft campaigns over Oregon

Here, the vast forests and natural areas of the Pacific Northwest comprise one of the most productive ecosystems in the northern hemisphere. The heterogeneous landscape of Oregon poses a particular challenge to ecosystem models. We present a framework using a scaling factor Bayesian inversion to improve the modeled atmosphere-biosphere exchange of carbon dioxide. Observations from 5 CO/CO 2 towers, eddy covariance towers, and airborne campaigns were used to constrain the Community Land Model CLM4.5 simulated terrestrial CO 2 exchange at a high spatial and temporal resolution (1/24°, 3-hourly). To balance aggregation errors and the degrees of freedom in the inverse modeling system, we applied an unsupervised clustering approach for the spatial structuring of our model domain. Data from flight campaigns were used to quantify the uncertainty introduced by the Lagrangian particle dispersion model that was applied for the inversions. The average annual statewide net ecosystem productivity (NEP) was increased by 32% to 29.7 TgC per year by assimilating the tropospheric mixing ratio data. The associated uncertainty was decreased by 28.4% to 29%, on average over the entire Oregon model domain with the lowest uncertainties of 11% in western Oregon. The largest differences between posterior and prior CO 2 fluxes were found for the Coast Range ecoregion of Oregon that also exhibits the highest availability of atmospheric observations and associated footprints. In this area, covered by highly productive Douglas-fir forest, the differences between the prior and posterior estimate of NEP averaged 3.84 TgC per year during the study period from 2012 through 2014.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Silicon photonic chip for 16-channel wavelength division (de-)multiplexing in the O-band

We experimentally demonstrate a silicon photonic chip-scale 16-channel wavelength division multiplexer (WDM) operating in the O-band. The silicon photonic chip consists of a common-input bus waveguide integrated with a sequence of 16 spectral add-drop filters implemented by 4-port contra-directional Bragg couplers and resonant cladding modulated perturbations. The combination of these features reduces the spectral bandwidth of the filters and improves the crosstalk. An apodization of the cladding modulated perturbations between the bus and the add/drop waveguides is used to optimize the strength of the coupling coefficient in the propagation direction to reduce the intra-channel crosstalk on adjacent channels. The fabricated chip was validated experimentally with a measured intra-channel crosstalk of ∼−18.9 dB for a channel spacing of 2.6 nm. The multiplexer/demultiplexer chip was also experimentally tested with a 10 Gbps data waveform. The resulting eye-pattern indicates that this approach is suitable for datacenter WDM-based interconnects in the O-band with large aggregate bandwidths.

Davis, Jordan A. (ORCID:0000000343483295)↗

DOE OSTI2022

An Assessment of Hydropower Potential at National Conduits

In support of the mission of the US Department of Energy Water Power Technologies Office to promote domestic next-generation hydropower growth, this study provides a first-of-its-kind assessment of the hydropower development potential on existing water conduits nationwide. This study evaluates the potential for conduit hydropower development in the municipal, agricultural, and industrial sectors across the United States. The research team developed systematic methods to evaluate conduit hydropower capacity potential (MW) and energy generation potential (GWh/year) at four categories of conduits across the United States. They include the following: (1) Water supply pipelines for municipal and industrial uses, (2) Wastewater discharge conduits from municipal and industrial systems, (3) Agricultural water conduits including irrigation canals and ditches in the 17 western states that rely heavily on irrigation, and (4) Thermoelectric power plant cooling water discharge conduits. For each type of conduit, the team developed and implemented a method to estimate hydraulic head and annual water flows—and the hydropower potential—based on analyses of satellite imagery, topography, and existing data sets on water systems and power plants. These methods support a consistent, replicable estimate of conduit hydropower potential across 3 sectors and all 50 states, aggregated at the county and state levels. The assessment was conducted at the reconnaissance level, considering resources that could be available for development at the state and national levels using present-day assumptions about conduit hydropower technology.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Implementation of Distributed Memory Computing in MOSAIC to Enable Large 3D Simulations of Irradiated Concrete

The concrete biological shield (CBS) of light-water reactors protects workers and the surrounding environment by absorbing neutron and gamma irradiation emitted from the reactor core. The radiation dose increases with the CBS’s operational time and, in the long term, becomes significant enough to raise the question of irradiation effects on concrete—and particularly on the structural integrity of the CBS. Irradiation-induced damage has been identified as one of the main degradation mechanisms in the CBS. Neutron radiation causes the swelling of aggregate-forming minerals at different rates and amplitudes depending on the mineral’s nature. Silicate-bearing minerals such as quartz are particularly sensitive to neutron radiation and experience up to 17.8% volumetric expansion. Aggregates comprise several minerals with different orientations and are, therefore, subject to cracking as a result of mismatch strains. Additionally, the swelling of aggregates creates significant stresses in the surrounding cement paste matrix, which also results in crack formation. In parallel with the collection of characterization and irradiation test data, development of modeling and simulation tools for irradiated concrete is ongoing with the support of the US Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy’s Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program. This effort resulted in the development and application of the fast-Fourier transform (FFT)–based code Microstructure-Oriented Scientific Analysis of Irradiated Concrete (MOSAIC) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian Attack Model (BAM) User Story

This document presents a user story for the Bayesian Attack Model (BAM) tool designed to aggregate and analyze cyber-attack observables for operational technology (OT) systems. BAM aims to empower cybersecurity analysts by providing a streamlined interface for collecting observable data from various sources, enabling real-time analysis of potential adversary activity. By enhancing the response capabilities of security teams, BAM facilitates risk-informed decision-making and improves organizational security posture. This user story outlines the key functionalities, user interactions, and requirements necessary to successfully integrate BAM with other security information and event management (SIEM) technology and cybersecurity operations centers (CSOCs).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2016

Pore Space Connectivity and the Transport Properties of Rocks

Pore connectivity is likely one of the most important factors affecting the permeability of reservoir rocks. Furthermore, connectivity effects are not restricted to materials approaching a percolation transition but can continuously and gradually occur in rocks undergoing geological processes such as mechanical and chemical diagenesis. Here, we compiled sets of published measurements of porosity, permeability and formation factor, performed in samples of unconsolidated granular aggregates, in which connectivity does not change, and in two other materials, sintered glass beads and Fontainebleau sandstone, in which connectivity does change. We compared these data to the predictions of a Kozeny-Carman model of permeability, which does not account for variations in connectivity, and to those of Bernabé et al. (2010, 2011) model, which does [Bernabé Y., Li M., Maineult A. (2010) Permeability and pore connectivity: a new model based on network simulations, J. Geophys. Res. 115, B10203; Bernabé Y., Zamora M., Li M., Maineult A., Tang Y.B. (2011) Pore connectivity, permeability and electrical formation factor: a new model and comparison to experimental data, J. Geophys. Res. 116, B11204]. Both models agreed equally well with experimental data obtained in unconsolidated granular media. But, in the other materials, especially in the low porosity samples that had undergone the greatest amount of sintering or diagenesis, only Bernabé et al. model matched the experimental data satisfactorily. In comparison, predictions of the Kozeny-Carman model differed by orders of magnitude. The advantage of the Bernabé et al. model was its ability to account for a continuous, gradual reduction in pore connectivity during sintering or diagenesis. Though we can only speculate at this juncture about the mechanisms responsible for the connectivity reduction, we propose two possible mechanisms, likely to be active at different stages of sintering and diagenesis, and thus allowing the gradual evolution observed experimentally.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1986

Mixing of cryogenic fluids and predicted detonation properties for multiphase liquid oxygen and liquid hydrogen

The mixing and explosion of LOX and LH sub 2 is a concern for Space Transportation System operations. To understand this problem, cryogenic mixing is experimentally studied by pouring 1,2,2 trichloro 2,1,1 trifluoroethane (Freon 113) into LN sub 2, LN sub 2 into LH sub 2, and LH sub 2 into into LN sub 2 in a 1 m by 15 cm cylindrical glass vessel. Data from these experiments is compared with previous studies and a hypothesis is advanced that LOX/LH sub 2 mixing will result in a complex, heterogenous, multiphase aggregation including LOX, SOX, LH sub 2, and VH sub 2 using the multiphase hypothesis. Visual and x ray observations of the process and mass measurements are reported.

Bishop, C. V.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Improvements in Nonconservative Force Modelling for TOPEX/POSEIDON

It was recognized prior to the launch of TOPEX/POSEIDON, that the most important source of orbit error other than the gravity field, was due to nonconservative force modelling. Accordingly, an intensive effort was undertaken to study the nonconservative forces acting on the spacecraft using detailed finite element modelling (Antreasian, 1992; Antreasian and Rosborough, 1992). However, this detailed modelling was not suitable for orbit determination, and a simplified eight plate "box-wing" model was developed that took into account the aggregate effect of the various materials and associated thermal properties of each spacecraft surface. The a priori model was later tuned post launch with actual tracking data [Nerem et al., 1994; Marshall and Luthcke, 1994; Marshall et al., 1995]. More recently, Kubitschek (1997] developed a newer box-wing model for TOPEX/POSEIDON, which included updated material properties, accounted for a solar array deflection, and modelled solar array warping due to thermal effects. We have used this updated model as a basis to retune the macromodel for TOPEX/POSEIDON, and report on preliminary results using at least 36 cycles (one year) of SLR and DORIS data in 1993.

Lemoine, Frank G.↗

NASA NTRS2023

Pacific Northwest Health & Air Quality: Monitoring Trends in Air Quality During a Drought Case Study to Improve Public Health Response to Drought Threats

Recent studies have documented a correlation between air quality and drought in the United States, which has been linked with increased aerosols including airborne particulate matter (PM) during drought conditions. This study partnered with local health departments to evaluate trends in air quality in the Pacific Northwest during the evolution of drought conditions using aerosol optical depth (AOD) observations collected by NASA’s Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor aboard the Terra and Aqua satellites. These satellite data were analyzed in conjunction with ground-based PM2.5 and PM10 data sourced from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)’s network of ground-based monitors and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) drought index. Based on recommendations by local health departments, this study examined air quality trends between 2015 and 2022 in 12 counties within Oregon and Washington that reflected diversity in population density, drought exposure, rural and urban status, and data availability from EPA monitors. Overall, results indicated variation in relationships among drought, satellite, and ground-based air quality data across the study area. This study did not control for the impact of wildfire events on air quality and also did not investigate shorter SPEI aggregation periods, both of which are avenues for future research. This project supplemented research into links between drought and human health and provided health departments with an objective foundation from which they can communicate public health risks to local communities.

Abby Sgan↗

DOE OSTI2015

Knowledge management information tool analytics with distributed database engine - 15737

The D and D KM-IT is a web-based knowledge management information tool custom built for the deactivation and decommissioning (D and D) user community. The system allows interested users to post information which goes through a custom work flow. To better improve the performance and user experience, the analysis of server logs is being conducted using MongoDB. MongoDB is a document database that provides high performance, high availability, and easy scalability. Objectives: - Feasibility study of Distributed Database Engine, MongoDB for web analytics; - Analyze server logs to evaluate D and D KM-IT module usage; - Generate useful information from the analysis. Method: - The server logs were loaded and stored in MongoDB for analysis; - Analysis and visualization was performed using NodeJS and Java Script library. Results: - It was possible to store log files in MongoDB; - Log files with different time stamps and groups from different servers can be aggregated; - Queries can be written to extract meaningful information from aggregated log files (e.g. users from different countries/organizations). Conclusions: - MongoDB is useful for server log analytics as the analyst can immediately access, analyze, and visualize MongoDB data based on the requirements; - The information can be extracted to develop custom reports; - Optimized queries can be run for fast data access. Path forward: - Custom queries need to be developed to extract information leading to improved user information.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2020

Interactions Between the Amazonian Rainforest and Cumuli Clouds: A Large‐Eddy Simulation, High‐Resolution ECMWF, and Observational Intercomparison Study

Abstract The explicit coupling at meter and second scales of vegetation's responses to the atmospheric‐boundary layer dynamics drives a dynamic heterogeneity that influences canopy‐top fluxes and cloud formation. Focusing on a representative day during the Amazonian dry season, we investigate the diurnal cycle of energy, moisture and carbon dioxide at the canopy top, and the transition from clear to cloudy conditions. To this end, we compare results from a large‐eddy simulation technique, a high‐resolution global weather model, and a complete observational data set collected during the GoAmazon14/15 campaign. The overall model‐observation comparisons of radiation and canopy‐top fluxes, turbulence, and cloud dynamics are very satisfactory, with all the modeled variables lying within the standard deviation of the monthly aggregated observations. Our analysis indicates that the timing of the change in the daylight carbon exchange, from a sink to a source, remains uncertain and is probably related to the stomata closure caused by the increase in vapor pressure deficit during the afternoon. We demonstrate quantitatively that heat and moisture transport from the subcloud layer into the cloud layer are misrepresented by the global model, yielding low values of specific humidity and thermal instability above the cloud base. Finally, the numerical simulations and observational data are adequate settings for benchmarking more comprehensive studies of plant responses, microphysics, and radiation.

Vilà‐Guerau de Arellano, J.↗

DOE OSTI2018

Multimodal Synchrotron Radiation Microscopy of Intact Astrocytes from the hSOD1 G93A Rat Model of Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), a fatal neurodegenerative disease, is the most common adult onset neurodegenerative disorder affecting motor neurons. Disruptions in metal ion homeostasis have been described in association with ALS, but the pathological mechanisms are still poorly understood. One of the familial ALS cases is caused by mutations in the metallo-enzyme copper–zinc superoxide dismutase (SOD1). We employed orthogonal cellular synchrotron radiation based spectro-microscopies to investigate the astrocytes of an ALS animal model: the rat hSOD1 G93A that overexpresses human mutated SOD1, which is known to increase the susceptibility of the SOD1 protein to form insoluble intracellular aggregates. Specifically, we applied soft X-ray transmission tomography and hard X-ray fluorescence microscopy in situ, Fourier transform infrared spectro-microscopy to detect and analyze aggregates, as well as to determine the alterations in the cellular ultrastructure and the elemental and the organic composition of ALS model astrocytes with respect to the control astrocytes isolated from nontransgenic littermates (NTg). The present study demonstrates that large aggregates in the form of multivesicular inclusions form exclusively in the ALS model astrocytes and not in the NTg counterpart. Furthermore, the number of mitochondria, the cellular copper concentration, and the amount of antiparallel β-sheet structures were significantly changed within the cells of the ALS model as well as the lipid localization and composition. Also, our data indicate that choline was decreased in the ALS model astrocytes, which could explain their higher sensitivity to oxidative stress that we observed. These results show that the hG93A SOD1 mutation causes metabolic and ultrastructural cellular changes and point to a link between an increased copper concentration and aggregation: the most probable that the aggregation of G93A hSOD1 may perturb its binding to Cu, thus directly or indirectly affecting Cu homeostasis.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2019

Discovery of Activities via Statistical Clustering of Fixation Patterns

Human behavior often consists of a series of distinct activities, each characterized by a unique signature of visual behavior. This is true even in a restricted domain, such as piloting an aircraft, where patterns of visual signatures might represent activities like communicating, navigating, and monitoring. We propose a novel analysis method for gaze-tracking data, to perform blind discovery of these activities based on their behavioral signatures. The method is in some respects similar to recurrence analysis, but here we compare not individual fixations, but groups of fixations aggregated over a fixed time interval. The duration of this interval is a parameter that we will refer to as τ. We assume that the environment has been divided into a set of N different areas-of-interest (AOIs). For a given interval of time of duration τ, we compute the proportion of time spent fixating each AOI, resulting in an N-dimensional vector. These proportions can be converted to counts by multiplying by τ divided by the average fixation duration (another parameter that we fix at 280 milliseconds). We compare different intervals by computing the chi-square statistic. The p-value associated with the statistic is the likelihood of observing the data under the hypothesis that the data in the two intervals were generated by a single process with a single set of probabilities governing the fixation of each AOI. We have investigated the method using a set of 10 synthetic "activities," that sample 4 AOIs. Four of these activities visit 3 of the 4 AOIs, with equal probability; as there are four different ways to leave-one- out, there are four such activities. Similarly, there are six different activities that leave-two-out. Sequences of simulated behavior were generated by running each activity for 40 seconds, in sequence, for a total of 6.7 minutes. The figure to the right shows the matrix of chi-square statistics, using a value of 2.8 seconds for τ, corresponding to 10 fixations. Low values (dark) indicate poor evidence for activity differences, while high values (bright) indicate strong evidence. The dark squares along the main diagonal each correspond to the forty second intervals in which the activity was held constant; the 4x4 block at the lower left corresponds to the four leave-one-out activities, while the 6x6 block in the upper right corresponds to the leave-two-out activities. (The anti-diagonal pattern of white squares indicates those activity pairs that share no AOIs.) The chi-square values can be binarized by choosing a particular significance level; we are interested in grouping bins that represent the same activity, effectively accepting the null hypothesis. Therefore, we may adopt a relatively lax criterion; for example, choosing a p-value of 0.2 means that two behaviors that have only a 1-in-5 chance of being produced by a single activity might nevertheless be clustered together. We have explored several methods to perform clustering on the data and solving for the activity probabilities. Greedy methods begin by selecting the time bin that is similar to the most (or least) other bins, and then forming a cluster from it and all other non-discriminable bins. These methods show mediocre performance, as they do not take into account temporal contiguity. Preliminary results indicate that methods that "grow" clusters in time from seed points perform better.

activity analysis↗

DOE OSTI2021

Online Monitoring System for Concrete Structures Affected by Alkali-Silica Reaction

This report presents a comprehensive study of developing ultrasonic wave and acoustic emission (AE) techniques for long-term monitoring of alkali-silica reaction (ASR) development in concrete. Small, medium, and full-scale concrete specimens were cast, conditioned, and monitored for various periods, from at least one year to 2.4 years. The reactive concrete specimens contain coarse or fine reactive aggregates to study the effects of different types of reactive aggregates. Confinements were also designed to simulate the 2-dimensional confinement effects of reinforcement in the shield building of nuclear power plants. The concrete specimens were stored in a environmental chamber with high humidity and high temperature to accelerate the ASR development. The ultrasonic monitoring data shows high sensitivity to ASR development and could detect cracking initiation well before visible surface cracks occurred. However, the linear ultrasonic analysis based on wave velocity is strongly affected by temperature variation. Therefore, a nonlinear ultrasonic method was proposed to measure thermally induced nonlinear acoustic responses of concrete (thermal modulation of ultrasonic wave). The measured nonlinear acoustic parameter shows a high correlation with ASR expansion across specimens with different reactive aggregates and confinement conditions. The same conclusion was obtained from nonlinear resonance tests on small concrete prisms. Compared to the linear acoustic methods, the nonlinear tests show high sensitivities to ASR damage from internal microcracking initiation at the early stage to visible cracks at the late stage of ASR. The attributes of the thermal modulation of nonlinear ultrasonic method include high sensitivity, immunity to temperature effects, and strong correlation with ASR expansion, which demonstrate great potentials of the nonlinear ultrasonic method for diagnosis of ASR damage and prediction of concrete deterioration process. Acoustic emission is a passive sensing technique for damage assessment, and access to only one surface is needed even for thick and heavily reinforced elements such as the walls utilized for nuclear shield building. Additionally, relatively few sensors are required to monitor the progression of the damage process. Results indicate that the AE data can be related to the damage rating index, which is a petrography-based means of assessing damage due to ASR in reinforced concrete. Furthermore, AE is capable of detecting ASR damage long before surface cracking is visually noticeable. Boundary conditions play in important role in the progression of ASR damage and differences in boundary conditions are reflected in the AE data. Entropy based data assessment methods provide a means to assess the damage state, and convolutional neural network based data assessment provided a means to assess the damage state in real-time. Results indicate that artificial neural network models may be used as a means to predict volumetric expansion based on AE data.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Multi-omics data resource: Data package 22 (Pck022)

In type 1 diabetes (T1D), autoimmune response and inflammation cause the death of pancreatic ß cells, leading to the body’s inability to produce insulin and maintain glucose homeostasis. This process is at least in part mediated by pro-inflammatory cytokines, such as interferon (IFN)a, IFN?, interleukin (IL)-1ß, and tumor necrosis factor (TNF)a, which induce ß-cell dysfunction and apoptosis. A deep understanding of the ß-cell signaling and regulatory networks induced by these cytokines could lead to the identification of therapeutic targets to prevent T1D development. To study cytokine-mediated islets/ß-cell signaling and regulatory networks, a variety of omics experiments have been conducted, including transcriptomics, epigenomics (DNA methylation, UMI-4C, ATAC-seq & ChIP-seq), proteomics (bottom-up, top-down, post-translational modification analysis), lipidomics, and metabolomics. The combination of these datasets can be instrumental in identifying signaling components and regulatory factors involved in ß-cell stress/death. Here, we aggregated these multiple omics datasets into a centralized location, providing a quality-controlled and statistically rigorous resource for investigators seeking to holistically study ß-cell regulation by pro-inflammatory cytokines. The data package consists of isolated pancreatic islets from adult male C57BL6/J mice treated with IL-1β, IFNγ or IL-1β + IFNγ for 6 h and submitted for scRNA-seq. This study focused on understanding the heterogeneity of the cytokine-mediated response. Data contributors: Jennifer S Stancill & John A Corbett: Department of Biochemistry, Medical College of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, WI, USA Data repository: GSE156175 Publication: 10.26508/lsa.202000949

Sarkar, Soumyadeep [Pacific Northwest National Lab↗

DOE OSTI2017

The Status and Promise of Advanced M&V: An Overview of “M&V 2.0” Methods, Tools, and Applications

Advanced measurement and verification (M&V) of energy efficiency savings, often referred to as M&V 2.0 or advanced M&V, is currently an object of much industry attention. Thus far, however, there has been a lack of clarity about what techniques M&V 2.0 includes, how those techniques differ from traditional approaches, what the key considerations are for their use, and what value propositions M&V 2.0 presents to different stakeholders. The objective of this paper is to provide background information and frame key discussion points related to advanced M&V. The paper identifies the benefits, methods, and requirements of advanced M&V and outlines key technical issues for applying these methods. It presents an overview of the distinguishing elements of M&V 2.0 tools and of how the industry is addressing needs for tool testing, consistency, and standardization, and it identifies opportunities for collaboration. In this paper, we consider two key features of M&V 2.0: (1) automated analytics that can provide ongoing, near-real-time savings estimates, and (2) increased data granularity in terms of frequency, volume, or end-use detail. Greater data granularity for large numbers of customers, such as that derived from comprehensive implementation of advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) systems, leads to very large data volumes. This drives interest in automated processing systems. It is worth noting, however, that automated processing can provide value even when applied to less granular data, such as monthly consumption data series. Likewise, more granular data, such as interval or end-use data, delivers value with or without automated processing, provided the processing is manageable. But it is the combination of greater data detail with automated processing that offers the greatest opportunity for value. Using M&V methods that capture load shapes together with automated processing1 can determine savings in near-real time to provide stakeholders with more timely and detailed information. This information can be used to inform ongoing building operations, provide early input on energy efficiency program design, or assess the impact of efficiency by location and time of day. Stakeholders who can make use of such information include regulators, energy efficiency program administrators, program evaluators, contractors and aggregators, building owners, the investment community, and grid planners. Although each stakeholder has its own priorities and challenges related to savings measurement and verification, the potential exists for all to draw from a single set of efficiency valuation data. Such an integrated approach could provide a base consistency across stakeholder uses.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

NASA NTRS2015

Relationships Between Excessive Heat and Daily Mortality over the Coterminous U.S

In the United States, extreme heat is the most deadly weather-related hazard. In the face of a warming climate and urbanization, it is very likely that extreme heat events (EHEs) will become more common and more severe in the U.S. Using National Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) meteorological reanalysis data, we have developed several measures of extreme heat to enable assessments of the impacts of heat on public health over the coterminous U.S. These measures include daily maximum and minimum air temperatures, daily maximum heat indices and a new heat stress variable called Net Daily Heat Stress (NDHS) that gives an integrated measure of heat stress (and relief) over the course of a day. All output has been created on the NLDAS 1/8 degree (approximately 12 km) grid and aggregated to the county level, which is the preferred geographic scale of analysis for public health researchers. County-level statistics have been made available through the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) via the Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (WONDER) system. We have examined the relationship between excessive heat events, as defined in eight different ways from the various daily heat metrics, and heat-related and all-cause mortality defined in CDC's National Center for Health Statistics 'Multiple Causes of Death 1999-2010' dataset. To do this, we linked daily, county-level heat mortality counts with EHE occurrence based on each of the eight EHE definitions by region and nationally for the period 1999-2010. The objectives of this analysis are to determine (1) whether heat-related deaths can be clearly tied to excessive heat events, (2) what time lags are critical for predicting heat-related deaths, and (3) which of the heat metrics correlates best with mortality in each US region. Results show large regional differences in the correlations between heat and mortality. Also, the heat metric that provides the best indicator of mortality varied by region. Results from this research will potentially lead to improvements in our ability to anticipate and mitigate any significant impacts of extreme heat events on health.

heat↗