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At least 1,315 records · Page 73

Enhanced analysis of experimental x-ray spectra through deep learning

X-ray spectroscopic data from high-energy-density laser-produced plasmas has long required thorough, time-consuming analysis to extract meaningful source conditions. There are often confounding factors due to rapidly evolving states and finite spatial gradients (e.g., the existence of multi-temperature, multi-density, multi-ionization states, etc.) that make spectral measurements and analysis difficult. Here, in this paper, we demonstrate how deep learning can be applied to enhance x-ray spectral data analysis in both speed and intricacy. Neural networks (NNs) are trained on ensemble atomic physics simulations so that they can subsequently construct a model capable of extracting plasma parameters directly from experimental spectra. Through deep learning, the models can extract temperature distributions as opposed to single or dual temperature/density fits from standard trial-and-error atomic modeling at a significantly reduced computational cost compared to traditional trial-and-error methods. These NNs are envisioned to be deployed with high repetition rate x-ray spectrometers in order to provide detailed real-time analysis of experimental spectra.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Leaving in the lead: Priorities for perovskite photovoltaics

The need for moving electricity generation to a sustainable model requires the development of low cost ubiquitous photovoltaics (PVs) to harvest the planet’s primary energy source, the Sun. Building upon the successes of Si-based and CdTe-based PV technologies, PVs with lower-embodied energy and requiring lower carbon dioxide equivalent to produce will be required to meet long-term sustainability goals. In particular, thin-film technologies, such as high-efficiency metal halide perovskite (MHP) PV modules, provide avenues to reduced embodied energy, lower energy payback times, and enabling energy-dense tandems [H. M. Wikoff et al., Joule 6(7), 1710–1725 (2022) and V. Fthenakis, Renewable Sustainable Energy Rev. 13(9), 2746–2750 (2009)]. The ability to improve efficiency and lower energy payback time of next generation thin-film PV modules is a critical foundation for green H2 and electrification more broadly. In this regard, Pb-based MHP-PVs have separated themselves as a result of the high-efficiencies that can be realized across a range of electronic gaps. Questions regarding Pb-based MHP-PVs that are often asked, as the challenges of efficiency and reliability are met, revolve around the “problem” of the Pb content. Specifically, “does Pb toxicity preclude MHP-PV modules from being deployed at the TW scale?” To provide this sense of scale, in 2021, the United States burned 10.5 quads of coal, with 90% of that used for electricity generation. Given the energy content of coal of 29 MJ/kg and a residual lead content in that coal of 30 mg/kg, electricity generation from coal resulted in more lead emitted into the atmosphere than what would be required to produce over 2 TW of MHP-PV name plate capacity (assuming a 20% module efficiency and an ∼700 nm active layer). This amounts to more PV power than has been deployed across all PV technologies and geographies to date. This only includes US coal consumption; the rest of the world would be much larger. This example illustrates the scale of the material usage relative to the energy production. Imagine a power-generation technology that offsets these Pb emissions from coal and essentially sequesters this Pb content between two sheets of impermeable glass. Why should we let Pb’s history of misuse prevent it from being included in next generation PV modules that can enable a sustainable energy future?

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Consistent inclusion of triple substitutions within a coupled cluster based static quantum embedding theory

We have previously proposed the MPCC static embedding framework for quantum chemistry that self-consistently couples a high-level coupled cluster (CC) treatment of the fragment (active region) with a lower level, Møller–Plesset perturbation treatment of the environment. Our initial implementation was limited to single and double (SD) substitutions, with CCSD for the fragment and first-order perturbative SD amplitudes for the environment. Here, we extend the MPCC embedding treatment to triple substitutions, which is essential for achieving chemical accuracy in energy differences. To this end, we employ a CCSDT solver for the fragment subsystem. For the environment subsystem, we construct a perturbative estimate of the triples amplitudes, explicitly accounting for feedback from all fragment amplitudes. The resulting approach is denoted MPCCSDT(pt). We further introduce a more complete formulation in which feedback from the environment amplitudes to the fragment amplitudes is also included. This scheme involves an iterative treatment of the environment triples amplitudes and is denoted MPCCSDT(it). In addition, we assess the accuracy of the previously proposed low-level method by introducing a modified low-level approach that incorporates a lowest-order treatment of selected long-range effects, including spin fluctuations and charge polarization. All resulting approaches may be viewed as post-CCSD(T) methods. We therefore consider test cases for which CCSD(T) exhibits substantial deviations from CCSDT. These include (i) single- and triple-bond stretching in F 2 and N 2 , (ii) bond dissociation energies of selected molecules from the W4-11 dataset, and (iii) total atomization energies of transition metal hydrides. Our results demonstrate that inclusion of triples amplitudes at the fragment level alone is insufficient; a perturbative treatment of the environment triples amplitudes is required. For many energy-difference applications, feedback from the environment triples amplitudes to the fragment amplitudes is not essential, but it does play a role in the very challenging CoH and FeH molecules. A very interesting finding from our study is that in some challenging cases, we need an improved (second-order) perturbative method for the SD amplitudes, going beyond the first-order one used in our earlier work. In conclusion, considering both cost and accuracy, the MP2CCSDT(pt) model is the most promising for future applications among the candidates considered here.

Shee, Avijit [University of California, Berkeley, ↗

Supplementing biofuel mandates with a carbon mitigation policy can lead to water quality co-benefits

Biofuel mandates can impact the environment in multiple ways that may be positive or negative, including affecting life-cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by displacing fossil fuels, affecting soil carbon stocks due to accompanying land use change, and water quality due to changes in fertilizer requirements and the mix of crops used as feedstocks. To achieve desired environmental outcomes in the presence of a biofuel mandate, additional policy instruments must be adopted to supplement the mandate. We develop an integrated and spatially explicit ecosystem-economic modeling framework to analyze the cost-effectiveness of alternative policies to achieve desired targets for GHG emissions reduction from the agricultural and fuel sectors in the USA and nitrate leaching reduction in the Gulf of Mexico below the levels that would be achieved by a corn ethanol and/or a cellulosic ethanol mandate in the USA. We find that while a corn ethanol mandate lowers GHG emissions, it increases nitrate leaching due to the expansion of corn production; a cellulosic ethanol mandate lowers both GHG emissions and nitrate leaching relative to a corn ethanol mandate, but the additional carbon and nitrate prices are needed to achieve anticipated GHG reduction and nitrate reduction targets. We also find that accompanying a biofuel mandate with a GHG reduction target alone leads to substantial nitrate reduction co-benefits, but a nitrate reduction target alone is less effective in reducing GHG emissions. Combining a GHG standard with a nitrate standard can achieve GHG and nitrate reduction targets at lower carbon and nitrate prices as compared to implementing each of these policies independently. Furthermore, our findings show that disregarding policy co-benefits can overestimate the GHG and nitrate prices needed to achieve policy targets and higher policy costs.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Two-way coupled particle-turbulence interaction: Effect of numerics and resolution on fluid and particle statistics

Euler-Lagrange point-particle simulation has emerged as a premier methodology for studying dispersed particle-laden flows. This method's popularity stems from its ability to resolve fine-scale fluid structures while also tracking individual particles at reduced cost using an appropriate particle acceleration model. However, the point-particle model has known convergence issues in that refinement of the fluid grid can lead to changes in the predicted statistics. The reasons for non-convergence are twofold: the point-particle two-way coupling force in the Navier-Stokes equations requires a numerical regularization and, without careful implementation, yields a singular force on the fluid with grid refinement. The second factor that yields grid-dependent statistics is that the point-particle force model in general depends on the undisturbed fluid velocity. When the undisturbed fluid velocity is not robustly modeled in a grid-insensitive way, the calculated force for both particles and fluid will be grid-dependent, contaminating their respective statistics. While the first issue regarding regularizing the point-particle source term has received attention in the literature, the consequences of robustly modeling the undisturbed velocity in the context of grid refinement of turbulence has received little attention. Here, we consider decaying homogeneous isotropic turbulence laden with particles at different Stokes numbers. For a given Stokes number, we systematically refine the grid and demonstrate that explicitly modeling the undisturbed fluid velocity yields relative grid insensitivity for the energy of the particle and fluid phases, as well as acceleration of the particles. We also demonstrate that an appropriately defined dissipation rate is also grid-insensitive when an undisturbed fluid velocity correction is used. In contrast, when the undisturbed fluid velocity is modeled using the conventional approach of interpolating the local fluid velocity to the particle location, we show this procedure yields divergent statistics with grid refinement. In particular, we show that higher-order interpolation of the fluid velocity in two-way coupled problems is worse than lower-order interpolation, in the absence of a correction procedure to estimate the undisturbed fluid velocity. We also examine velocity derivative statistics of the fluid phase and demonstrate that these statistics are not in general convergent even when the undisturbed fluid velocity is explicitly modeled. Collectively, the observations in this paper are used to present a philosophy on the types of questions which are answerable with point-particle methods.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Resonance Suppression based on Predictive Control of Grid-following Inverters with LCL Filter in Weak Grid Condition

This paper presents an effective resonance suppression control when grid interactive inverter with LCL filter experience weak grid conditions. The resonance suppression mechanism is based on finite-set model predictive control (FSMPC) with adaptive cost function to alter the controller objectives seamlessly. The large parasitic impedance and low short circuit ratio (SCR) of weak grid challenges the operation of gridconnected inverters. Specifically, the LCL filter resonance may get excited, resulting in collapse of the inverter operation. To address this issue, an effective active damping approach is implemented in the proposed control. In the proposed active damping scheme for resonance suppression, the feedback currents are switched based on the operating conditions of inverter. During the stiff grid conditions, grid current serves as feedback to the controller. While in the weak grid conditions, the inverter current is selected as feedback signal. The toggling action between these two feedback currents is determined by comparing moving RMS of grid current with threshold current as constraint in the cost function of the proposed MPC scheme. The threshold current for toggling action is based on the reference active and reactive power setpoints plus an acceptable band of variation. The theoretical analysis is verified by several case studies.

Umar, Muhammad Farooq↗

The Effect of Clean Energy Generation Targets on the Portfolio of Electric Grid Generation Technologies

A least-cost generation and transmission expansion planning model is used to optimize the U.S. generation portfolio in 2030 under a range of Clean Energy Generation Target (CEGT) policy goals. As reference cases for comparison, the model is used to optimize the generation portfolio for the future electric grid with and without the Investment and Production Tax Credits (ITC and PTC). Next, the model is used to optimize the generation portfolio with a CEGT ranging from 10% to 70%. The results show that due to the ITC and PTC extensions by the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act, there is little additional investment in renewable energy generation assets at low CEGT levels. Significant additional installations of both renewable energy generation and energy storage systems – both batteries and pumped storage hydro – become important at CEGT levels above approximately 30%.

Aldeman, Matthew↗

Current Source Inverter Based Large Constant Power Speed Ratio SPM Machine Drive for Traction Applications

A high-performance surface permanent magnet (SPM) machine drive with an extended constant power speed ratio is proposed using a current source inverter (CSI) for a traction application. The constant-power operation regions of an SPM machine can be extended in an appealing fashion by taking advantage of the output voltage boost capability of the CSI. The CSI is naturally a boost-type converter, in contrast to the voltage source inverter (VSI) which has buck-type characteristics. To investigate the value of the CSI voltage boost feature, a new traction motor with higher rated voltage and lower rated current has been designed and compared to the motor that would be used with a VSI. The lower CSI current makes it possible to reduce the mass of the inverter and output power cable, benefiting power density and cost reduction. The SPM machine is modeled in the synchronous reference frame including the effect of the ac filter capacitors at the CSI output terminals. The capability of extending the speed range of the proposed motor is verified via closed-form analysis and FEA simulation, and its performance characteristics are compared with those of a VSI-based SPM motor of the same type.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Band Heater Heat Flux Characterization Using Inverse Heat Conduction Problem Models

Abstract An experimental apparatus was constructed to correlate water flowrate and temperature rise under an external band heater. Due to the physical characteristics of the band heater, its transient heating behavior is unknown. This paper investigates the application of inverse heat conduction problem (IHCP) methods to characterize the heat flux from the band heater. Three experiments with different heating times (5, 10, and 20 s) and no flowrate were conducted to measure the transient temperature under the 400 W band heater. Type-T thermocouples measure surface temperature at the centerline of the band heater. The experimental results are computed with five different heat conduction models. The models are chosen to identify how the heat flux response varies from a simplified to a realistic model. Additionally, the results of the experimental heat flux are compared to the manufacturer band heater data (58.9 kW/m2) for each model. The minimum time needed for the heater to fully energize the system is from 10 to 12 s. The residuals for each model are analyzed and used to evaluate the appropriateness of the five different models. The results show that the use of simpler models can achieve results similar to those of complex models, with less time and computational cost.

Engineering↗

Learning Forecasts of Rare Stratospheric Transitions from Short Simulations

Abstract Rare events arising in nonlinear atmospheric dynamics remain hard to predict and attribute. We address the problem of forecasting rare events in a prototypical example, sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs). Approximately once every other winter, the boreal stratospheric polar vortex rapidly breaks down, shifting midlatitude surface weather patterns for months. We focus on two key quantities of interest: the probability of an SSW occurring, and the expected lead time if it does occur, as functions of initial condition. These optimal forecasts concretely measure the event’s progress. Direct numerical simulation can estimate them in principle but is prohibitively expensive in practice: each rare event requires a long integration to observe, and the cost of each integration grows with model complexity. We describe an alternative approach using integrations that are short compared to the time scale of the warming event. We compute the probability and lead time efficiently by solving equations involving the transition operator, which encodes all information about the dynamics. We relate these optimal forecasts to a small number of interpretable physical variables, suggesting optimal measurements for forecasting. We illustrate the methodology on a prototype SSW model developed by Holton and Mass and modified by stochastic forcing. While highly idealized, this model captures the essential nonlinear dynamics of SSWs and exhibits the key forecasting challenge: the dramatic separation in time scales between a single event and the return time between successive events. Our methodology is designed to fully exploit high-dimensional data from models and observations, and has the potential to identify detailed predictors of many complex rare events in meteorology.

Finkel, Justin↗

GEOPHIRES Simulations for Deep Direct Use (DDU) Projects

This folder contains the GEOPHIRES codes and input files for running the base case scenarios for the six deep direct-use (DDU) projects. The six DDU projects took place during 2017-2020 and were funded by the U.S. Department of Energy Geothermal Technologies Office. They investigated the potential of geothermal deep direct-use at six locations across the country. The projects were conducted by Cornell University, West Virginia University (WVU), University of Illinois (U of IL), Sandia National Laboratory (SNL), Portland State University (PSU), and National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). Four projects (Cornell, WVU, U of IL, SNL) investigated geothermal for direct heating of a local campus or community, the project by PSU considered seasonal subsurface storage of solar heating, and the NREL project investigated geothermal heating for turbine inlet cooling using absorption chillers. To allow comparison of techno-economic results across the six DDU projects, GEOPHIRES simulations were set up and conducted for each project. The GEOPHIRES code was modified for each project to simulate the local application and incorporate project-specific assumptions and results such as reservoir production temperature or financing conditions. The base case input file is included which simulates the base case conditions assumed by each project team. The levelized cost of heat (LCOH) is calculated and matches the base case LCOH reported by the project teams.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Geomatchd

Geomatchd is a software tool to assist non-experts in the rapid conceptual design of geothermal district heating systems. This tool comprises three main parts: user-side heating and cooling demand profiles, district heating and cooling (DHC) network models for sizing and optimal layout selection, and geothermal system models for heat extraction calculation and cost comparison. The architecture of Geomatchd is opensource and is intended to simplify efforts by other coders to improve on existing functions, to add functions and to leverage available existing code and data – to improve the tool for public use. Geomatchd and the material supporting its development may provide a more intuitive window on district heating and the use of local shallow geothermal resources.

AS↗

Development and Validation of a Simulation Tool to Predict the Combined Structural, Electrical, Electrochemical and Thermal Responses of Automotive Batteries

Battery safety is one of the most important design factors of electrified vehicles (EVs) since battery failure may lead to a catastrophic consequence. To improve the safety of battery systems in EVs, battery behaviors under various abuse conditions should be well understood. One way to examine battery response under extreme conditions is to conduct abuse tests in different scenarios. They can provide first-hand pass/fail information on battery safety, but they are usually expensive and time-consuming, which is inconvenient during design iterations and optimization. On the other hand, computational modeling can predict the battery behaviors in a more efficient and cost-effective way, which becomes an important tool to evaluate battery safety. Modeling battery responses and failure is challenging since it involves multiple coupled physical processes, needs to consider complex material properties and is computationally intensive. This project aims to develop a practical simulation tool to predict the combined structural, electrical, electrochemical, and thermal responses of automotive batteries to crash-induced crush and short circuit and validate it for conditions relevant to automotive crash. Advanced material constitutive models will be utilized to capture the mechanical response of cell components. Moreover, methods will be developed to reduce computational complexity of the model and allow battery safety simulations to extend from cell-level to module/pack level with affordable computational resources.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Early detection and uncertainty quantification of rapid sea-level rise from Antarctica

Focal Areas: (i) classification and/or anomaly detection methods applied towards identifying critical climate system thresholds; improved emulator design for (ii) reducing computational costs relative to full-physics models and (iii) improved uncertainty quantification workflows. Rationale: The evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet in response to climate change remains the single largest uncertainty in projecting future sea-level rise (SLR), with risk-averse projections for 2100 spanning between zero and a half meter. During the past decade, DOE has made substantial investments in new ice sheet and Earth system models needed to improve both understanding and predictive capability in this area. Yet major challenges remain, including better understanding when and under what circumstances significant increases in SLR from Antarctica may be initiated and better quantifying uncertainties in model-based SLR projections. Here, we discuss the potential for transformative advances in these areas through the application of machine learning and artificial intelligence (ML and AI, respectively).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Energy Storage Financing: Project and Portfolio Valuation

This study investigates the issues and challenges surrounding energy storage project and portfolio valuation and provide insights in to improving visibility into the process for developers, capital providers, and customers so they can make more informed choices. Energy storage project valuation methodology is typical of power sector projects through evaluating various revenue and cost assumptions in a project economic model. The difference is that energy storage projects have many more design and operational variables to incorporate, and the governing market rules that control these variables are still evolving. This makes project valuation for energy storage more difficult. As the number of operating projects grow, portfolios of these projects are being developed, garnering the interest of larger investors. Valuation challenges of these portfolios can be even more challenging as market role and geographical diversity can actually exacerbate the variability, not mitigate it. By proposing additional visibility of key factors and drivers for industry participants, the US DOE can reduce investment risk, expanding both the number and types of investors, plus helping emerging energy storage technology into sustained commercialization.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Literature Review of Advanced Reactor Cost Estimates

This report provides a comprehensive review of existing literature on advanced reactor cost estimations in the form of a ‘meta-study’. Over 30 references were evaluated and considered as part of this effort. The information is then distilled into different tiers, each with varying levels of detail and granularity. The recommendations consist of low/medium/high estimates for capital and operating costs that can be adjusted using various correction factors (based on learning, numbers of plants per site, etc.). In addition, reference breakdown in costs based on a code of account structure is provided for the main four types of advanced reactors.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DPE Techno-Economic Analyses

This National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) report presents the results of an extensive set of techno-economic analyses for several open-cycle coal fuel oxy-fired direct power extraction (DPE) concepts. These power cycles make use of a conducting plasma accelerated through a magnetic field to generate direct current directly without the need for moving parts. Similar to gas turbines, the efficiency of the power cycle increases with increasing working fluid temperature and typically, plasma temperatures are much higher than the inlet temperature of even the most advanced gas turbine available today, affording the opportunity for very high cycle efficiencies. Most of the study uses high-fidelity models to assess a coal-fueled oxy-combustion DPE system with an AUSC steam bottoming cycle. Two baseline configurations were explored, one with relatively conservative operating point parameters and another with relatively aggressive operating point parameters. Additional analysis on the high-fidelity models as well as reduced order models were performed to analyze the cost and performance potential more thoroughly for the baseline systems and to compare their performance to two alternate open-cycle DPE systems.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗