Physically rigorous reduced-order flow models of fractured subsurface environments without explosive computational cost.
Abstract not provided.
Beskardes, Gungor Didem↗
SEARCH · Engineering Papers
Results for “cost model”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Quantifying Investment Risk: Analysis of the Purchase Decision of a Nuclear Power Plant
Cost overruns are an ill-fated part of the deployment history of nuclear power plants (NPPs) in the United States, and yet studies increasingly show the important role nuclear technologies must play in decarbonizing the U.S. economy. Paradoxically, then, a key piece of a coherent decarbonization strategy depends on attracting investor action to a purchase where historical cost overruns have been sizeable. To address this challenge, this study aims to develop a financial model that quantifies risk of cost overruns in the decision-making process for purchasing advanced reactor concepts. Using the concept of Value at Risk (VaR), the model is built to evaluate financial risk nuclear construction with the aim to identify risk mitigation strategies. The objective is to identify strategies to mitigate cost-risk challenges and to assess the potential reduction in investor risk exposure. The paper presents the initial development and preliminary verification of the financial risk analysis model. The development of this model involved a comprehensive approach to estimating financial risk over the operating life of NPP that stems from construction uncertainties. By utilizing net present value (NPV) with discounted cash flows, the model captures the complex interconnections of project costs, construction timelines, revenue, and uncertainties. Verification of the model involved testing historical data from previous reactor construction projects against the construction project of Vogtle 3 and 4. The results of this paper present the comparison of the preconstruction cost overrun prediction with the current cost estimates from a nearly complete Vogtle 3 and 4.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Impact of model predictive control-enabled home energy management on large-scale distribution systems with photovoltaics
Residential customers use more than one-quarter of the electricity in the world. Optimally managing home energy consumption is an effective way of easing the operational challenges facing the electric grid with increasing solar photovoltaics (PV). This paper studies the impact of the future proliferation of home energy management systems (HEMS) in the presence of PV on large-scale distribution systems. First, we present a stochastic HEMS model that minimizes residential customers' thermal discomfort and energy costs under uncertainty. The HEMS model schedules the optimal operations of residential appliances in the presence of PV within a mixed-integer linear programming-based model predictive control framework that links the proposed HEMS to a quasi-steady-state time-series simulation tool. Additionally, extensive simulations are conducted for a stand-alone residential home using two tariff structures and for 1977 homes on an 8,500-node distribution feeder. Simulation results quantify the impact of the future proliferation of HEMS on the large-scale distribution system with PV.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
Challenge Problem 1: Preliminary Model Development and Assessment of Flexible Heat Transfer Modeling Approaches
This report presents the modeling progress of a university consortium studying flexible modeling for turbulent heat transfer. In the context of advanced nuclear reactor design, where challenges include non-unity Prandtl fluids, free and mixed convection, and transitional flow, computational fluid dynamics methods are underutilized due to low confidence in modeling approaches and high computational cost. This report evaluates the performance of engineering CFD models in diabatic, buoyant turbulent flow. It finds that all turbulence models including several variants of the k-ε and k-ω models struggle to predict accurate turbulent momentum and heat transfer in such flows. The Nusselt numbers have been compared between the models and the DNS data, where calculations have been performed for each case and trends have shown a good agreement between DNS estimated Nusselt numbers and available correlations as well as experimental data. A novel DNS correlation for high Pr cases as they are transitioning from mixed convection to natural convection has been proposed. While Nusselt number errors relative to DNS range from 20% to 50%, the models capture similar trends to DNS with respect to Nusselt suppression and amplification under varying levels of buoyancy effect. This report also highlights model form error as a significant contributor to CFD predictions and proposes a framework for quantifying model error and improving confidence in CFD calculations. To improve the predictive capability of engineering CFD models, data-driven approaches for turbulence models are investigated. Theoretical frameworks based on the invariant tensor / vector basis neural networks for prediction of Reynolds stresses and turbulent heat fluxes are employed. The models are developed using direct numerical simulations data for forced convection flows of different fluids in vertical planar channel domain. The framework is implemented in spectral element solvers Nek5000 / nekRS and has shown a potential for future development and consideration of mixed convection flows.
22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
Evaluation of Turbulence Models for Unsteady Flows of an Oscillating Airfoil
Unsteady flowfields of a two-dimensional oscillating airfoil are calculated using an implicit, finite-difference, Navier Stokes numerical scheme. Five widely used turbulence models are used with the numerical scheme to assess the accuracy and suitability of the models for simulating the retreating blade stall of helicopter rotor in forward flight. Three unsteady flow conditions corresponding to an essentially attached flow, light-stall, and deep-stall cases of an oscillating NACA 0015 wing experiment were chosen as test cases for computations. Results of unsteady airloads hysteresis curves, harmonics of unsteady pressures, and instantaneous flowfield patterns are presented. Some effects of grid density, time-step size, and numerical dissipation on the unsteady solutions relevant to the evaluation of turbulence models are examined. Comparison of unsteady airloads with experimental data show that all models tested are deficient in some sense and no single model predicts airloads consistently and in agreement with experiment for the three flow regimes. The chief findings are that the simple algebraic model based on the renormalization group theory (RNG) offers some improvement over the Baldwin Lomax model in all flow regimes with nearly same computational cost. The one-equation models provide significant improvement over the algebraic and the half-equation models but have their own limitations. The Baldwin-Barth model overpredicts separation and underpredicts reattachment. In contrast, the Spalart-Allmaras model underpredicts separation and overpredicts reattachment.
Srinivasan, G. R.↗
On the Development of Parameterized Linear Analytical Longitudinal Airship Models
In order to explore Titan, a moon of Saturn, airships must be able to traverse the atmosphere autonomously. To achieve this, an accurate model and accurate control of the vehicle must be developed so that it is understood how the airship will react to specific sets of control inputs. This paper explains how longitudinal aircraft stability derivatives can be used with airship parameters to create a linear model of the airship solely by combining geometric and aerodynamic airship data. This method does not require system identification of the vehicle. All of the required data can be derived from computational fluid dynamics and wind tunnel testing. This alternate method of developing dynamic airship models will reduce time and cost. Results are compared to other stable airship dynamic models to validate the methods. Future work will address a lateral airship model using the same methods.
aerobot↗
Evaluating the Adaptability of Reinforcement Learning Based HVAC Control for Residential Houses
Intelligent Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning (HVAC) control using deep reinforcement learning (DRL) has recently gained a lot of attention due to its ability to optimally control the complex behavior of the HVAC system. However, more exploration is needed on understanding the adaptability challenges that the DRL agent could face during the deployment phase. Using online learning for such applications is not realistic due to the long learning period and likely poor comfort control during the learning process. Alternatively, DRL can be pre-trained using a building model prior to deployment. However, developing an accurate building model for every house and deploying a pre-trained DRL model for HVAC control would not be cost-effective. In this study, we focus on evaluating the ability of DRL-based HVAC control to provide cost savings when pre-trained on one building model and deployed on different house models with varying user comforts. We observed around 30% of cost reduction by pre-trained model over baseline when validated in a simulation environment and achieved up to 21% cost reduction when deployed in the real house. This finding provides experimental evidence that the pre-trained DRL has the potential to adapt to different house environments and comfort settings.
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
Low-Cost Heliostat for High-Flux Small-Area Receivers (Final Technical Report)
This project analyzed a two-stage heliostat concept consisting of a tracking stage and a concentrating stage. The tracking stage uses mirrors mounted on a common drive that move to track the sun. The concentrating stage consists of stationary mirrors that each have a unique angle to direct rays towards a small-area, high-flux, point-focused receiver. By splitting the collection and concentrating process into two stages, multiple small, inexpensive mirrors can share a structure and be controlled by a single drive in the tracking stage. The project effort developed modeling techniques that were specifically relevant to this two-stage heliostat concept. Both field-level and unit-level models were developed. The field-level model does not explicitly consider unit-level losses which are predicted by the unit-level model and then integrated into the field-level model through a correlation referred to as an efficiency modifier. This approach is referred to as the two-model approach; the development and demonstration of this two-model approach for a multi-stage heliostat technology is a key outcome of this work. The field-level model is used to design a field that hits a specific design day power given a set of heliostat design parameters. An oversized field is simulated and then heliostat units are removed based on their annual energy production in order to generate the highest performing field. The field reduction procedure fits a smooth curve fit to annual energy production as a function of position in the field which has the effect of reducing the noise that is otherwise caused by the Monte Carlo ray tracing technique. This approach is referred to as the annual energy fit method and substantially reduces computational run time for a given field level modeling accuracy. The annual energy fit approach enables the selection of a properly sized, high-performing field using orders of magnitude fewer rays than would otherwise be possible and the development of this approach is a second key outcome of this work. These models are used within a genetic optimization algorithm in order to optimize the geometric parameters associated with a heliostat in order to achieve the lowest cost per unit of collected design day power. The cost modeling that underlies the optimization is a simple, scaling type analysis backed up by a much more detailed Design for Manufacture and Assembly (DFMA) analysis. Although the figure of merit used for optimization was not cost per mirror area, this metric is reasonable to use as a means of comparison. The optimally designed 500 kW design has a tracking mirror specific cost of $181.85/m 2 , which is significantly larger than the target value and also larger than the current state of the art. The cost of the torque-tube type linkages contributed substantially to the overall cost. Based on this observation, potentially attractive alternative design configuration utilizing a capstan type actuation system should be investigated. Finally, NREL compared the performance of the two-stage heliostat to the performance of a focused and different sized flat conventional heliostats and showed that, as expected, additional losses versus the convention heliostat caused by a worse cosine efficiency, two stages of reflection, and interstage interactions. The two-stage heliostat requires around 75% more reflective area than a flat 1x1 meter conventional heliostat (similar to a focused heliostat) and 40% more than a flat 2x2 meter conventional heliostat.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
Enhanced Power Grid Maintenance Planning and Quantum-Inspired Combinatorial Prospects
Efficient and reliable scheduling of maintenance for power generation and transmission infrastructure is essential for minimizing operational costs and ensuring grid stability. This paper introduces an integrated optimization framework for coordinated maintenance scheduling of generators and transmission lines under resource and reliability constraints. The model minimizes a composite cost function including maintenance and generation costs, as well as penalties for delayed maintenance, while satisfying N−1 security constraints, operational limits, and crew availability. Case studies on the IEEE 300-bus test system demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach in producing feasible and cost-effective maintenance schedules. To address scalability and combinatorial complexity, the model is mapped into a Quadratic Unconstrained Binary Optimization (QUBO) problem, enabling exploration of solution approaches based on Quantum Imaginary Time Evolution (QITE). While the QUBO reformulation provides a foundation for future quantum-inspired optimization, this study focuses primarily on the development and demonstration of the classical optimization framework and illustrates the potential applicability of QITE in large-scale maintenance scheduling.
Chen, Yang [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000271693874)↗
Development of the structural technology of a large deployable antenna
The current NASA-sponsored Antenna Technology Development Program of the offset wrap-rib antenna concept is based on a ground test program of 'proof of concept' hardware whose potential on-orbit performance is based on analytical estimates. The ground demonstration hardware represents a partial 55-meter diameter reflector and feed support structure. Testing will include automated deployment, reflector surface quality evaluation and validation of analytical performance models. Test results and hardware fabrication costs will be used to refine the models that will be the basis for the preliminary design of a 100-meter diameter wrap-rib antenna system. Additionally, the design, processes, tooling, fabrication techniques, fixturing and assembly approaches used for the 'proof of concept' hardware are directly applicable to building flight systems up to 100 meters in diameter.
Wada, B. K.↗
Model Verification and Validation Concepts for a Probabilistic Fracture Assessment Model to Predict Cracking of Knife Edge Seals in the Space Shuttle Main Engine High Pressure Oxidizer
Physics-based models are routinely used to predict the performance of engineered systems to make decisions such as when to retire system components, how to extend the life of an aging system, or if a new design will be safe or available. Model verification and validation (V&V) is a process to establish credibility in model predictions. Ideally, carefully controlled validation experiments will be designed and performed to validate models or submodels. In reality, time and cost constraints limit experiments and even model development. This paper describes elements of model V&V during the development and application of a probabilistic fracture assessment model to predict cracking in space shuttle main engine high-pressure oxidizer turbopump knife-edge seals. The objective of this effort was to assess the probability of initiating and growing a crack to a specified failure length in specific flight units for different usage and inspection scenarios. The probabilistic fracture assessment model developed in this investigation combined a series of submodels describing the usage, temperature history, flutter tendencies, tooth stresses and numbers of cycles, fatigue cracking, nondestructive inspection, and finally the probability of failure. The analysis accounted for unit-to-unit variations in temperature, flutter limit state, flutter stress magnitude, and fatigue life properties. The investigation focused on the calculation of relative risk rather than absolute risk between the usage scenarios. Verification predictions were first performed for three units with known usage and cracking histories to establish credibility in the model predictions. Then, numerous predictions were performed for an assortment of operating units that had flown recently or that were projected for future flights. Calculations were performed using two NASA-developed software tools: NESSUS(Registered Trademark) for the probabilistic analysis, and NASGRO(Registered Trademark) for the fracture mechanics analysis. The goal of these predictions was to provide additional information to guide decisions on the potential of reusing existing and installed units prior to the new design certification.
Pai, Shantaram S.↗
Trajectory Planning and Online Performance Model Estimation for Advanced Air Mobility
We propose a framework for adaptive guidance based on optimal control and estimation using closed-loop performance models. In the proposed approach, parameters of a reduced-order performance model are estimated in real time so that trajectories and guidance commands are replanned with more accurate knowledge of the system's response and performance capabilities. To apply this methodology to flight control systems, we introduce a simple yet expressive performance model modified from a reference linear design model. The proposed framework is applied to guidance of a simulated Advanced Air Mobility class concept aircraft experiencing control effector failures. We demonstrate that, by optimizing performance model parameters in real time, guidance commands can be intelligently adjusted to recover system stability and the performance of a full-order vehicle model, even in the event of effector failures. Furthermore, the reduced-order performance model requires a fraction of the computational cost of the full-order model, facilitating real-time use of adaptive, optimal guidance.
Differential dynamic programming↗
Trajectory Planning and Online Performance Model Estimation for Advanced Air Mobility
We propose a framework for adaptive guidance based on optimal control and estimation using closed-loop performance models. In the proposed approach, parameters of a reduced-order performance model are estimated in real time so that trajectories and guidance commands are replanned with more accurate knowledge of the system's response and performance capabilities. To apply this methodology to flight control systems, we introduce a simple yet expressive performance model modified from a reference linear design model. The proposed framework is applied to guidance of a simulated Advanced Air Mobility class concept aircraft experiencing control effector failures. We demonstrate that, by optimizing performance model parameters in real time, guidance commands can be intelligently adjusted to recover system stability and the performance of a full-order vehicle model, even in the event of effector failures. Furthermore, the reduced-order performance model requires a fraction of the computational cost of the full-order model, facilitating real-time use of adaptive, optimal guidance.
Differential dynamic programming↗
A comprehensive modeling method for proton exchange membrane electrolyzer development
Hydrogen attracts significant interests as an effective energy carrier that can be derived from renewable sources. Hydrogen production using a proton-exchange membrane (PEM) electrolyzer can efficiently convert renewable power via water splitting in wide scales—from large, centralized generation to on-site production. Mathematical models with multiple scales and fidelities facilitate the continuing improvements of PEM electrolyzer development to improve performance, cost, and reliability. The model scopes and methods are presented in this paper, which also introduces a comprehensive PEM electrolysis modeling tool based on computational fluid dynamics (CFD) software, ANSYS/Fluent. The modeling tool incorporates electrochemical model of a PEM electrolysis cell to simulate the performance of coupled thermal-fluid, species transport, and electrochemical processes in a product-scale cell or stack by leveraging the powerful meshing generation and CFD solver of ANSYS/Fluent. The thermal-fluid modeling includes liquid water/gas two-phase flow and simulates a PEM electrolysis cell by using Fluent user-defined functions as add-on modules accounting for PEM-specific species transport and electrochemical processes. The modeling outcomes expediate PEM electrolyzer scaling up from basic material development and laboratory testing.
08 HYDROGEN↗
Are Fibre Channel SANs a Commodity?
The goal of this work is to evaluate the feasibility of putting together a Fibre Channel Storage Area Network with heterogeneous hardware running both open-source and commercial operating systems. Adherence to the Fibre Channel Specification is supposed to guarantee interoperability in such an environment. We also want to evaluate how difficult it might be to put together a SAN using open-source components. While all the commercial vendors provide Fibre Channel support, this comes at a cost, e.g., not only O/S and drivers, but usually an expensive support contract. The open-source model could lower the cost of building and maintaining a SAN. Of course, for this to be the case, the open-source platforms would have to provide the functionality to construct a SAN. We are assembling a Fibre Channel SAN from heterogeneous hardware (i386, alpha, sparc) running *BSD, Linux, Tru64, NT and Solaris operating systems. We are running several tests to investigate the level of Fibre Channel support provided by each OS. Our current testbed is specified in the table below. Currently, it only contains open-source platforms. We plan to add a PC running OpenBSD, as well as the following commercial systems: Sun Ultra 1/Solaris, DEC AlphaServer 4000/Tru64 Unix, Pentium Pro PC/Windows NT.
Becker, Jeff↗
Context-aware learning of hierarchies of low-fidelity models for multi-fidelity uncertainty quantification
Multi-fidelity Monte Carlo methods leverage low-fidelity and surrogate models for variance reduction to make tractable uncertainty quantification even when numerically simulating the physical systems of interest with high-fidelity models is computationally expensive. This work proposes a context-aware multi-fidelity Monte Carlo method that optimally balances the costs of training low-fidelity models with the costs of Monte Carlo sampling. It generalizes the previously developed context-aware bi-fidelity Monte Carlo method to hierarchies of multiple models and to more general types of low-fidelity models. When training low-fidelity models, the proposed approach takes into account the context in which the learned low-fidelity models will be used, namely for variance reduction in Monte Carlo estimation, which allows it to find optimal trade-offs between training and sampling to minimize upper bounds of the mean-squared errors of the estimators for given computational budgets. This is in stark contrast to traditional surrogate modeling and model reduction techniques that construct low-fidelity models with the primary goal of approximating well the high-fidelity model outputs and typically ignore the context in which the learned models will be used in upstream tasks. Further, the proposed context-aware multi-fidelity Monte Carlo method applies to hierarchies of a wide range of types of low-fidelity models such as sparse-grid and deep-network models. Numerical experiments with the gyrokinetic simulation code Gene show speedups of up to two orders of magnitude compared to standard estimators when quantifying uncertainties in small-scale fluctuations in confined plasma in fusion reactors. This corresponds to a runtime reduction from 72 days to four hours on one node of the Lonestar6 supercomputer at the Texas Advanced Computing Center.
42 ENGINEERING↗
Systems cost/performance analysis (study 2.3). Volume 2: Systems cost/performance model
A methodology which was developed for balanced designing of spacecraft subsystems and interrelates cost, performance, safety, and schedule considerations was refined. The methodology consists of a two-step process: the first step is one of selecting all hardware designs which satisfy the given performance and safety requirements, the second step is one of estimating the cost and schedule required to design, build, and operate each spacecraft design. Using this methodology to develop a systems cost/performance model allows the user of such a model to establish specific designs and the related costs and schedule. The user is able to determine the sensitivity of design, costs, and schedules to changes in requirements. The resulting systems cost performance model is described and implemented as a digital computer program.
Campbell, B. H.↗
Combining Agent Based Modeling and System Dynamics to Investigate the Circularity of Plastics
The United States currently produces about 1 million metric ton of ocean plastic pollution annually. One proposed solution to combat plastic waste is a circular economy (CE), which aims to transition from today's take-make-waste linear pattern of production and consumption to a system where the value of resources is maximized over time. Two key methods in industrial ecology are useful in assessing the viability of CE: (1) System Dynamics (SD) and (2) Agent Based Modeling (ABM). In prior work, the plastic life cycle was modeled with SD and ABM. The two models calculate recycling rates and costs in different ways, making it difficult to pinpoint necessary next steps. We integrate the ABM and SD models - linking the emergent patterns from micro-level human decisions to system level processes - which allows a more comprehensive understanding of feedbacks, costs, and environmental impacts. The integrated model is more accurate, and can be used to visualize recycling rates and human health and environmental impacts over time. The difference between the integrated and original SD model prompts a Sobol sensitivity analysis, which is used to understand which behavioral factors most affect plastic recycling patterns. We find that the habitual component is typically the most influential in promoting positive recycling behavior. Additionally, we utilize the combined model to understand and visualize how various behavioral intervention scenarios, like improved access to recycling programs and cart tagging, influence recycling patterns; these results can guide future policy-making.
agent-based modeling↗