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At least 1,315 records · Page 73
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2012

Understanding Differences in Upper Stratospheric Ozone Response to Changes in Chlorine and Temperature as Computed Using CCMVal Models

Projections of future ozone levels are made using models that couple a general circulation model with a representation of atmospheric photochemical processes, allowing interactions among photochemical processes, radiation, and dynamics. Such models are known as chemistry and climate models (CCMs). Although developed from common principles and subject to the same boundary conditions, simulated ozone time series vary for projections of changes in ozone depleting substances (ODSs) and greenhouse gases. In the upper stratosphere photochemical processes control ozone level, and ozone increases as ODSs decrease and temperature decreases due to greenhouse gas increase. Simulations agree broadly but there are quantitative differences in the sensitivity of ozone to chlorine and to temperature. We obtain insight into these differences in sensitivity by examining the relationship between the upper stratosphere annual cycle of ozone and temperature as produced by a suite of models. All simulations conform to expectation in that ozone is less sensitive to temperature when chlorine levels are highest because chlorine catalyzed loss is nearly independent of temperature. Differences in sensitivity are traced to differences in simulated temperature, ozone and reactive nitrogen when chlorine levels are close to background. This work shows that differences in the importance of specific processes underlie differences in simulated sensitivity of ozone to composition change. This suggests a) the multi-model mean is not a best estimate of the sensitivity of upper ozone to changes in ODSs and temperature; b) the spread of values is not an appropriate measure of uncertainty.

Douglass, A. R.↗
NASA NTRS2013

An Assessment of the Skill of GEOS-5 Seasonal Forecasts

The seasonal forecast skill of the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office coupled global climate model (CGCM) is evaluated based on an ensemble of 9-month lead forecasts for the period 1993 to 2010. The results from the current version (V2) of the CGCM consisting of the GEOS-5 AGM coupled to the MOM4 ocean model are compared with those from an earlier version (V1) in which the AGCM (the NSIPP model) was coupled to the Poseidon Ocean Model. It was found that the correlation skill of the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) forecasts is generally better in V2, especially over the sub-tropical and tropical central and eastern Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Ocean. Furthermore, the improvement in skill in V2 mainly comes from better forecasts of the developing phase of ENSO from boreal spring to summer. The skill of ENSO forecasts initiated during the boreal winter season, however, shows no improvement in terms of correlation skill, and is in fact slightly worse in terms of root mean square error (RMSE). The degradation of skill is found to be due to an excessive ENSO amplitude. For V1, the ENSO amplitude is too strong in forecasts starting in boreal spring and summer, which causes large RMSE in the forecast. For V2, the ENSO amplitude is slightly stronger than that in observations and V1 for forecasts starting in boreal winter season. An analysis of the terms in the SST tendency equation, shows that this is mainly due to an excessive zonal advective feedback. In addition, V2 forecasts that are initiated during boreal winter season, exhibit a slower phase transition of El Nino, which is consistent with larger amplitude of ENSO after the ENSO peak season. It is found that this is due to weak discharge of equatorial Warm Water Volume (WWV). In both observations and V1, the discharge of equatorial WWV leads the equatorial geostrophic easterly current so as to damp the El Nino starting in January. This process is delayed by about 2 months in V2 due to the slower phase transition of the equatorial zonal current from westerly to easterly.

GMAO↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Overview of the SPARC Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (S-RIP) during 2013-2020

The Stratosphere-troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate (SPARC) project is one of the four core projects of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). Researchers interested in SPARC use global atmospheric reanalysis products to understand a wide range of processes and variability in the atmosphere, to validate chemistry climate models, and to investigate and identify climate change. The SPARC Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (S-RIP) was initiated in 2011 and officially started in 2013 to conduct a coordinated intercomparison of all major global atmospheric reanalysis data sets. The S-RIP has been aiming at writing up an assessment report in the SPARC report series (to be published by the end of 2020) (1) on overall quality of temperature, winds, ozone, and water vapor data, (2) on more process- and region-oriented evaluation of the Brewer–Dobson circulation, extratropical stratosphere-troposphere coupling, extratropical upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, the tropical tropopause layer, the quasi-biennial oscillation, polar processes, and the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere, and (3) with a coordinated description of the reanalysis systems. We also have an inter-journal special issue on "The SPARC Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (S-RIP)" in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP) and Earth System Science Data (ESSD). In the presentation, we will discuss key findings and recommendations as well as the evaluation of this rst phase of the S-RIP activity.

Masatomo Fujiwara↗
NASA NTRS2023

Comment on “Advanced Testing of Low, Medium, and High ECS CMIP6 GCM Simulations Versus ERA5-T2m” by N. Scafetta (2022)

Scafetta (2022, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022gl097716) purports to test Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) climate models through a comparison of temperature changes over three decades. Unfortunately, the paper contains numerous conceptual and statistical errors that undermine all of the conclusions. First, no uncertainty is given for the observational temperature difference, making it impossible to assess compatibility with any model result. Second, the CMIP6 data are the ensemble means for each model, but the metric being tested is sensitive to the internal variability and so the full ensemble for each model must be used. When this is corrected, the conclusion that “all models with ECS > 3.0°C overestimate the observed global surface warming” is not sustained. Third, the statistical test in Section 2 would reject all models even in a perfect model setup given sufficient ensemble members, thus the second conclusion “that spatial t-statistics rejects the data-model agreement” is also not sustainable.

CMIP6↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Quantifying Changes in the Arctic Shortwave Cloud Radiative Effects

The shortwave cloud radiative effect (SWCRE) is important on the Arctic surface radiation budget and the major source of inter-model spread in predictions of Arctic climate. To better understand the individual contributions of various radiative processes to changes in SWCRE, the paper presents the use of the extended APRP (Atmospheric Radiative Perturbation Potential) method. This involves adding the absorptivity for the upward beam and considering differences in reflectivity between upward and downward beams, as well as analyzing the cloud masking effect resulting from changes in surface albedo in more detail. Using data from the CMIP5 and CMIP6 climate models, the study decomposes the SWCRE over the Arctic surface and analyzes inter-model differences in quadrupled CO2 simulations. The study takes into account the fact that the response of SWCRE to Arctic warming is influenced by changes in surface albedo, cloud amount, and cloud microphysics. Results show that in the sunlight season, the reduction in surface albedo associated with sea ice loss is directly linked to strong negative SWCRE, which explains the considerable model discrepancy. Arctic clouds can hinder the positive surface albedo feedback by changing the albedo in two ways: (1) decreasing incoming shortwave radiation due to cloud reflection and (2) by decreasing the shortwave reaching the surface after being reflected by clouds. In addition, increased (decreased) cloud amount and cloud liquid water are shown to be less (more) incoming shortwave fluxes at the surface, but not dominating factors to the Arctic surface radiation budget and its inter-model variation. Overall, the extended APRP method offers a useful tool for analyzing the complex interactions between clouds and radiative process, reasonably decomposes the individual SWCRE responses at the Arctic surface, and emphasizes that considering not only the cloud amount or its properties, but also surface albedo change is critical for the prediction of SWCRE on the Arctic surface.

Arctic cloud↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Development of an Extended Reality (XR) Tool for Earth Science Visualization

In this presentation, we will discuss our work in adapting the NASA open source XR software, the Mixed Reality Exploration Toolkit (MRET), to an earth science domain. MRET is a NASA open source XR software for rapidly building extended reality (XR) environments for NASA domain problems, e.g., pulling in CAD models of thermal vac chamber and Roman Space Telescope to do fit checks. Primarily used for hardware integration & test, we have been adapting and extending MRET for science problems. Traditionally, scientists view and analyze the result of calculated or measured observables with static 1-D, 2-D or 3-D plots. It can be difficult to identify, track and understand the evolution of key features due to poor viewing angles and the nature of flat computer screens. Additionally, numerical models, such as the NASA GEOS climate model, are almost exclusively formulated and analyzed on Eulerian grids with points fixed in space and time. However, atmospheric phenomena such as convective clouds, hurricanes and wildfire smoke plumes move with the 3-D flow field, and it is often difficult and unnatural to understand these phenomena in an Eulerian reference frame as opposed to the Lagrangian reference frame in which nature operates. As part of an Earth Science Technology Office (ESTO) proposal, we have been adapting MRET to be a scientific exploration and analysis XR tool with integrated Lagrangian Dynamics (LD) for the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) numerical weather prediction model. We believe this will help scientists identify, track, and understand the evolution of Earth Science phenomena. This presentation will discuss current results in our work in developing this XR tool for Earth Science.

Thomas G Grubb↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Development of an Extended Reality (XR) Tool for Earth Science Visualization

In this presentation, we will discuss our work in adapting the NASA open source XR software, the Mixed Reality Exploration Toolkit (MRET), to an earth science domain. MRET is a NASA open source XR software for rapidly building extended reality (XR) environments for NASA domain problems, e.g., pulling in CAD models of thermal vac chamber and Roman Space Telescope to do fit checks. Primarily used for hardware integration & test, we have been adapting and extending MRET for science problems. Traditionally, scientists view and analyze the result of calculated or measured observables with static 1-D, 2-D or 3-D plots. It can be difficult to identify, track and understand the evolution of key features due to poor viewing angles and the nature of flat computer screens. Additionally, numerical models, such as the NASA GEOS climate model, are almost exclusively formulated and analyzed on Eulerian grids with points fixed in space and time. However, atmospheric phenomena such as convective clouds, hurricanes and wildfire smoke plumes move with the 3-D flow field, and it is often difficult and unnatural to understand these phenomena in an Eulerian reference frame as opposed to the Lagrangian reference frame in which nature operates. As part of an Earth Science Technology Office (ESTO) proposal, we have been adapting MRET to be a scientific exploration and analysis XR tool with integrated Lagrangian Dynamics (LD) for the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) numerical weather prediction model. We believe this will help scientists identify, track, and understand the evolution of Earth Science phenomena. This presentation will discuss current results in our work in developing this XR tool for Earth Science.

Thomas Grubb↗
DOE OSTI2024

Projected regional changes in mean and extreme precipitation over Africa in CMIP6 models

Precipitation plays a crucial role in Africa's agriculture, water resources, and economic stability, and assessing its potential changes under future warming is important. In this study, we demonstrate that the latest generation of coupled climate models (CMIP6) robustly project substantial wetting over western, central, and eastern Africa. In contrast, southern Africa and Madagascar tend toward future drying. Under shared socioeconomic pathways (defined by Shared Socioeconomic Pathways SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5), our results suggest that most parts of Africa, except for southern Africa and Madagascar, will experience very wet years five times more often in 2050–2100, according to the multi-model median. Conversely, southern Africa and Madagascar will experience very dry years twice as often by the end of the 21st century. Furthermore, we find that the increasing risk of extreme annual rainfall is accompanied by a shift toward days with heavier rainfall. Our findings provide important insights into inter-hemispheric changes in precipitation characteristics under future warming and underscore the need for serious mitigation and adaptation strategies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Integrated modeling for assessing climate change impacts on water resources and hydropower potential in the Himalayas

Regional hydroclimatic variability and change can affect water resources and hydropower generation. It is essential to assess hydropower potential under current and future climatic conditions to inform the design and operation of hydropower infrastructures. Here, we employ an integrated modeling framework to assess the impact of projected hydroclimatic conditions on water resource systems and hydropower generation. The integrated framework samples climate model outputs under different scenarios to force a hydrologic model and produces streamflow projections. The projected streamflows are inputs for the future hydropower potential assessment. We implement the framework in the central Himalayan river basin. Our results demonstrate substantial spatiotemporal variability in different water balance components (precipitation, evapotranspiration, and water yield) under current and future climatic conditions. For the Himalayan Tila river basin, the annual average energy production is expected to increase under future hydroclimatic conditions (up to 39% in Tila-2 hydropower project, suggested by ensemble mean). Furthermore, this increase in energy is driven mainly by the increased streamflow projections, particularly during the dry season and in the late century. Our results highlight the impacts of hydroclimatic variability in hydropower productions and are of practical use to provide decision-relevant information for designing and operating hydropower infrastructures. The integrated modeling framework presented here is region-specific; however, the approach is reproducible, and the overall insights are generalizable across the Himalayan region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

AI Scaling Laws for Extremes (AISLE)

Focal Area(s) Using artificial intelligence to understand the physics of hydrologic events across temporal and spatial scales, to assess their representation in climate models, and to predict their response to climate warming. This covers both the prescribed foci of (2) predictive modeling using a hierarchy of models and (3) insight gleaned from complex data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2002

Microphysics, Radiation and Surface Processes in the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) Model

One of the most promising methods to test the representation of cloud processes used in climate models is to use observations together with Cloud Resolving Models (CRMs). The CRMs use more sophisticated and realistic representations of cloud microphysical processes, and they can reasonably well resolve the time evolution, structure, and life cycles of clouds and cloud systems (size about 2-200 km). The CRMs also allow explicit interaction between out-going longwave (cooling) and in-coming solar (heating) radiation with clouds. Observations can provide the initial conditions and validation for CRM results. The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) Model, a CRM, has been developed and improved at NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center over the past two decades. The GCE model has been used to understand the following: 1) water and energy cycles and their roles in the tropical climate system; 2) the vertical redistribution of ozone and trace constituents by individual clouds and well organized convective systems over various spatial scales; 3) the relationship between the vertical distribution of latent heating (phase change of water) and the large-scale (pre-storm) environment; 4) the validity of assumptions used in the representation of cloud processes in climate and global circulation models; and 5) the representation of cloud microphysical processes and their interaction with radiative forcing over tropical and midlatitude regions. Four-dimensional cloud and latent heating fields simulated from the GCE model have been provided to the TRMM Science Data and Information System (TSDIS) to develop and improve algorithms for retrieving rainfall and latent heating rates for TRMM and the NASA Earth Observing System (EOS). More than 90 referred papers using the GCE model have been published in the last two decades. Also, more than 10 national and international universities are currently using the GCE model for research and teaching. In this talk, five specific major GCE improvements: (1) ice microphysics, (2) longwave and shortwave radiative transfer processes, (3) land surface processes, (4) ocean surface fluxes and (5) ocean mixed layer processes are presented. The performance of these new GCE improvements will be examined. Observations are used for model validation.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗
NASA NTRS2024

Aera-Mip: Emission Pathways, Remaining Budgets, and Carbon Cycle Dynamics Compatible With 1.5 and 2 °C Global Warming Stabilization

While international climate policies now focus on limiting global warming to well below 2 °C or pursuing a 1.5 °C level of global warming, the climate modelling community has not provided an experimental design in which all Earth system models (ESMs) converge and stabilize at the same prescribed global warming levels. This gap hampers accurate estimations based on comprehensive ESMs of the carbon emission pathways and budgets needed to meet such agreed warming levels and of the associated climate impacts under temperature stabilization. Here, we apply the Adaptive Emission Reduction Approach (AERA) with ESMs to provide such simulations in which all models converge at 1.5 and 2.0 °C warming levels by adjusting their emissions over time. These emission-driven simulations provide a wide range of emission pathways and resulting atmospheric CO 2 projections for a given warming level, uncovering uncertainty ranges that were previously missing in the traditional Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) scenarios with prescribed greenhouse gas concentration pathways. Meeting the 1.5 °C warming level requires a 40 % (full model range: 7 % to 76 %) reduction in multi-model mean CO 2 -forcing-equivalent (CO 2 -fe) emissions from 2025 to 2030, a 98 % (57 % to 127 %) reduction from 2025 to 2050, and a stabilization at 1.0 (−1.7 to 2.9) PgC yr−1 from 2100 onward after the 1.5 °C global warming level is reached. Meeting the 2.0 °C warming level requires a 47 % (8 % to 92 %) reduction in multi-model mean CO 2 -fe emissions until 2050 and a stabilization at 1.7 (−1.5 to 2.7) PgC yr−1 from 2100 onward. The on-average positive emissions under stabilized global temperatures are the result of a decreasing transient climate response to cumulative CO 2 -fe emissions over time under stabilized global warming. This evolution is consistent with a slightly negative zero emissions commitment – initially assumed to be zero – and leads to an increase in the post-2025 CO 2 -fe emission budget by a factor of 2.2 (−0.8 to 6.9) by 2150 for the 1.5 °C warming level and a factor of 1.4 (0.9 to 2.4) for the 2.0 °C warming level compared to its first estimate in 2025. The median CO 2 -only carbon budget by 2150, relative to 2020, is 800 GtCO 2 for the 1.5 °C warming level and 2250 GtCO 2 for the 2.0 °C warming level. These median values exceed the median IPCC AR6 estimates by 60 % for the 1.5 °C warming level and 67 % for 2.0 °C. Some of the differences may be explained by the choice of the mitigation scenario for non-CO 2 radiative agents. Our simulations highlight shifts in carbon uptake dynamics under stabilized temperature, such as a cessation of the carbon sinks in the North Atlantic and in tropical forests. On the other hand, the Southern Ocean remains a carbon sink centuries after temperatures stabilize. Overall, this new type of warming-level-based emission-driven simulation offers a more coherent assessment across climate models and opens up a wide range of possibilities for studying both the carbon cycle and climate impacts, such as extreme events, under climate stabilization.

Adaptive Emission Reduction Approach↗
DOE OSTI2024

Bias Correction and Statistical Downscaling of Future Solar Irradiance Projections Using the NSRDB

Assessing renewable energy resources under future climate scenarios has been highlighted to understand potential impacts of future climate change in renewable generation on the power sector. Climate model projection has been recognized by the renewable energy community as a useful data set to analyze the impacts of future climate change on renewable resources. However, future climate projections generated from general circulation models (GCMs) contain inherent biases that need to be corrected for accurate analysis of future projections of climate variables. In addition, the coarse spatiotemporal resolution of GCMs needs to be improved for regional climate studies. In this work, we develop statistical methods to downscale future projections of global horizontal irradiance (GHI) in a computationally efficient way. Our approach builds statistical downscaling models that correct bias of climate projection of GHI and downscale the future GHI projection from daily-scale to hourly-scale. The National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) is used to calibrate the statistical models and validate the downscaled GHI projections across the contiguous United State (CONUS). Preliminary results show that the statistical approach efficiently downscales climate projections of GHI with a nBIAS of 3%, nMAE of 34 % and nRMSE of 46% calculated against NSRDB for CONUS. This study describes the implemented methodology and initial results as well as future research to create high-resolution climate data sets for solar energy applications.

analytical models↗
NASA NTRS2023

StratoFIRE: Modeling Wildfire Smoke in the Stratosphere

The most extreme manifestation of a fire–weather interaction is the formation of pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCb) thunderstorms, triggered by super-heated updrafts, which can eject smoke at altitudes exceeding 20 Km. In this study, we investigated climate-related impacts from the most intensive pyroCb-triggered injection of smoke in the stratosphere: the Australian New Year wildfires in 2019/2020. We first provide a general overview of the vision and objectives of the StratoFIRE project. With the aid of the global chemistry-climate model EMAC, we then simulate radiative and chemical perturbations in the stratosphere in relation to 0.9 Tg smoke in the stratosphere assuming different injection heights, from 13 to 16 Km. The simulation of stratospheric optical depth perturbations were found to be sensitive to the assumed injection height, with a maximum height at 16 Km showing the best agreement with the GLOSSAC and SAGE-ISS aerosol extinction observations.

PyroCb↗
NASA NTRS1988

The GISS global climate-middle atmosphere model. I - Model structure and climatology

A coupled global climate/middle atmosphere model (GCMAM) is developed by extending the Hansen et al. (1983) GISS global climate model to include the middle atmosphere up to 85 km. The model includes numerical solutions of the primitive equations, calculations of the radiative and surface fluxes, and a complete hydrologic cycle with convective and cloud-cover parameterizations. In addition, a parameterized gravity wave drag cycle is incorporated, in which gravity-wave momentum fluxes due to flow over topography, wind shear, and convection are calculated at each grid box, using theoretical relationships between the grid-scale variables and expected source strengths. The results of the GCMAM demonstrate that the model produces a reasonable simulation of the stratosphere. It is shown that the improvements over the previous version were achieved largely through the incorporation of the parameterized gravity wave drag.

Rind, D.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Implications of CO Bias for Ozone and Methane Lifetime in a CCM

A low bias in carbon monoxide compared to observations at high latitudes is a common feature of chemistry climate models. CO bias can both indicate and contribute to a bias in modeled OH and methane lifetime. This study examines possible causes of CO bias in the ACCMIP simulation of the GEOSCCM, and considers how attributing the CO bias to uncertainty in CO emissions versus biases in other constituents impacts the relationship between CO bias and methane lifetime. We use a simplified model of CO tagged by source with specified OH to quantify the sensitivity of the CO bias to changes in CO emissions or OH concentration, comparing the modeled CO to surface and MOPITT observations. The simplified model shows that decreasing OH in the northern hemisphere removes most of the global mean and inter-hemispheric bias in surface CO. We then use results from this analysis to explore how adjusting CO sources in the CCM impacts the concentrations of ozone, OH and methane. The CCM simulation also exhibits biases in ozone and water vapor compared to observations. We use a parameterized CO-OH-CH4 model that takes ozone and water vapor as inputs to the parameterization to examine whether correcting water and ozone biases can alter OH enough to remove the CO bias. Through this analysis, we aim to better quantify the relationship between CO bias and model biases in ozone concentrations and methane lifetime.

carbon monoxide↗
DOE OSTI2020

Seasonal Dependent Impact of Ice Cloud Longwave Scattering on the Polar Climate

Most climate models neglect cloud longwave (LW) scattering because scattering is considered negligible compared to strong LW absorption by clouds and greenhouse gases. While this rationale is valid for simulating extrapolar regions, it is questionable for the polar regions, where the atmosphere is dry and hence has weak absorption, and ice clouds that have strong scattering capability frequently occur. Using the slab-ocean Community Earth System Model, we show that ice cloud LW scattering can warm winter surface air temperature by 0.8–1.8 K in the Arctic and 1.3–1.9 K in the Antarctic, while this warming becomes much weaker in polar summer. Such scattering effect cannot be correctly assessed when sea surface temperature and sea ice are prescribed as this effect is manifested through a surface-atmosphere coupling. Furthermore, cloud LW scattering is a necessity for the correct simulation of polar climate and surface radiation budget, especially in the winter.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗