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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Newest 3-Flavor Neutrino Oscillation Results from NOvA

NOvA is a long-baseline accelerator neutrino experiment based at the Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory observing the appearance of electron (anti)neutrinos and disappearance of muon (anti) neutrinos. The experiment consists of two functionally identical liquid scintillator detectors; a 14 kton Far Detector is situated 810 km from the beam source, while a smaller Near Detector is only 1 km from the source and samples initial beam composition consisting of primarily muon (anti)neutrinos. Through these observations NOvA is probing outstanding questions in neutrino physics including the neutrino mass ordering and leptonic CP violation along with the θ23 neutrino mixing angle and the larger neutrino mass splitting Δm232. This talk will present the most recent neutrino oscillation results, which include a larger dataset, new analysis techniques, and updated systematic uncertainties.

Sutton, Andrew↗
DOE OSTI2025

PV Fleet Performance Data Initiative Final Technical Report (FTR)

Improved analysis and reporting of photovoltaic (PV) field performance increases the certainty of owners and financiers that systems will perform as expected. Advanced module technologies (e.g., PERC, HJT, and bifacial) introduce new degradation mechanisms and performance characteristics. This project will leverage data from the ever-increasing PV fleet to develop models and understanding of the field performance of existing and new technologies. Please see our list of public reports at https://www.nrel.gov/pv/fleet-performance-data-initiative.html. Objective 1: Support the global PV industry with scalable, robust data analysis tools that reduce the uncertainty of PV system performance and loss calculation. Objective 2: Reduce perceived risk arising from degradation rate, soiling loss, and system availability by publishing detailed statistics on U.S. fleet performance. Objective 3: Highlight factors leading to system underperformance including module type, climate, mounting configuration, etc. Objective 4: Enable continued high system performance in modern PV systems, as turnover and advances in technology bring new suppliers and high-efficiency modules into the market.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

NOvA in 10 Minutes

NOvA is a long-baseline neutrino oscillation experiment based at Fermilab, IL, USA, that observes $\nu_\mu \ (\bar{\nu}_\mu) \to \nu_\mu\ (\bar{\nu}_\mu)$ disappearance and $\nu_\mu \ (\bar{\nu}_\mu) \to \nu_e \ (\bar{\nu}_e)$ appearance oscillations from a beam of muon neutrinos (anti-neutrinos) provided by the Fermilab's NuMI beamline. The experiment consists of two functionally identical active liquid scintillattor tracking calorimeters, both situated 14.6 mrad off-axis to the beam direction. The detectors are made out of extruded PVC cells arranged in alternating horizontal and vertical planes for 3-dimensional reconstruction of neutrino events. The NOvA experiment has a wide-ranging scientific program that includes studying standard 3-flavor neutrino oscillations, resolution of neutrino mass orderings, measuring the CP-violating phase, $\delta_{CP}$, beyond standard model (BSM) phenomenon such as non-standard interactions (NSI) and sterile neutrino searches, neutrino-nucleus cross-section measurements, exotics, astrophysics and more. The NOvA experiment leverages its identical detector technology to mitigate systematic uncertainties for its neutrino oscillation analysis. This talk will provide an overview of the experiment's detector design and the data-driven techniques used by the experiment in its neutrino oscillation analysis.

Choudhary, Brajesh [Delhi U.]↗
DOE OSTI2025

Approaches to the Inverse Problem

In this talk, I describe some recent ideas relating to the spectral reconstruction inverse problem, which arises frequently in lattice QCD calculations of inclusive hadronic quantities, and provide some physical context for this work. Particular emphasis is given to a new method for rigorously bounding uncertainties using techniques from complex analysis.

Jay, William [Massachusetts Institute of Technolog↗
DOE OSTI2020

Model bias in simulating major chemical components of PM 2.5 in China

High concentrations of PM 2.5 (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 µm) in China have caused severe visibility degradation. Accurate simulations of PM 2.5 and its chemical components are essential for evaluating the effectiveness of pollution control strategies and the health and climate impacts of air pollution. In this study, we compared the GEOS-Chem model simulations with comprehensive datasets for organic aerosol (OA), sulfate, nitrate, and ammonium in China. Model results are evaluated spatially and temporally against observations. The new OA scheme with a simplified secondary organic aerosol (SOA) parameterization significantly improves the OA simulations in polluted urban areas, highlighting the important contributions of anthropogenic SOA from semivolatile and intermediate-volatility organic compounds. The model underestimates sulfate and overestimates nitrate for most of the sites throughout the year. More significant underestimation of sulfate occurs in winter, while the overestimation of nitrate is extremely large in summer. The model is unable to capture some of the main features in the diurnal pattern of the PM 2.5 chemical components, suggesting inaccuracies in the presented processes. Potential model adjustments that may lead to a better representation of the boundary layer height, the precursor emissions, hydroxyl radical concentrations, the heterogeneous formation of sulfate and nitrate, and the wet deposition of nitric acid and nitrate have been tested in the sensitivity analysis. The results show that uncertainties in chemistry perhaps dominate the model biases. The proper implementation of heterogeneous sulfate formation and the good estimates of the concentrations of sulfur dioxide, hydroxyl radical, and aerosol liquid water are essential for the improvement of the sulfate simulation. The update of the heterogeneous uptake coefficient of nitrogen dioxide significantly reduces the modeled concentrations of nitrate. However, the large overestimation of nitrate concentrations remains in summer for all tested cases. The possible bias in the chemical production and the wet deposition of nitrate cannot fully explain the model overestimation of nitrate, suggesting issues related to the atmospheric removal of nitric acid and nitrate. A better understanding of the atmospheric nitrogen budget, in particular, the role of the photolysis of particulate nitrate, is needed for future model developments. Moreover, the results suggest that the remaining underestimation of OA in the model is associated with the underrepresented production of SOA.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS1972

Preliminary study of the application of the Timation 3 satellite to earth physics

The Timation 3 is a timing and navigation satellite originally planned for launch in December 1972 into a circular orbit at 98 deg inclination 14,000 km altitude with gravity gradient stabilization. An error analysis indicates a satellite position uncertainty of about one meter, 80 percent of which is attributable to the assumed gravity model errors. The remaining uncertainties have a period equal to that of the satellites and can be filtered out yielding an effective uncertainty of about 10 cm in the study of phenomena having different periodicities. The accomplishment of these results depends on a careful consideration of solar radiation pressure taking account of the spacecraft reflecting properties and variations in the presentation area. Consideration is also given to the displacement of the laser reflectors from the center of mass of the spacecraft and to the dynamic coupling of any libration in attitude with the orbital motion. The results indicate that a good set of well distribution laser observations of Timation 3 could yield determinations of polar motion, sea floor spreading, solid earth tides, and earth rotation at the 10 cm level.

Carpenter, L.↗
NASA NTRS1977

Calibration analysis for a multi-channel infrared scanning radiometer

A procedure for calibrating an infrared scanning spectroradiometer by a computerized parametric error analysis technique was developed. The uncertainties in the radiometric measurements of scene radiance and (for the case of a blackbody scene) temperature due to possible uncertainties in the calibration target temperature, calibration target emissivity, and instrument temperature were calculated for a range of uncertainty levels in the parameters, as well as for a gamut of scent temperatures corresponding to a given spectral channel. This technique is applicable to the radiometric calibration of any infrared radiometer. It was applied specifically to the Cloud-Top Scanning (C.T.S) Radiometer, a three-channel instrument designed for aircraftborne cloud radiance measurements in the 6.75 and 11.5 micron thermal emission spectral regions.

Walden, H.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Senstitivity analysis of horizontal heat and vapor transfer coefficients for a cloud-topped marine boundary layer during cold-air outbreaks

The effects of external parameters on the surface heat and vapor fluxes into the marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL) during cold-air outbreaks are investigated using the numerical model of Stage and Businger (1981a). These fluxes are nondimensionalized using the horizontal heat (g1) and vapor (g2) transfer coefficient method first suggested by Chou and Atlas (1982) and further formulated by Stage (1983a). In order to simplify the problem, the boundary layer is assumed to be well mixed and horizontally homogeneous, and to have linear shoreline soundings of equivalent potential temperature and mixing ratio. Modifications of initial surface flux estimates, time step limitation, and termination conditions are made to the MABL model to obtain accurate computations. The dependence of g1 and g2 in the cloud topped boundary layer on the external parameters (wind speed, divergence, sea surface temperature, radiative sky temperature, cloud top radiation cooling, and initial shoreline soundings of temperature, and mixing ratio) is studied by a sensitivity analysis, which shows that the uncertainties of horizontal transfer coefficients caused by changes in the parameters are reasonably small.

Chang, Y. V.↗
NASA NTRS1987

The absolute radiometric calibration of the advanced very high resolution radiometer

The early results of an absolute radiometric calibration of the NOAA-9 AVHRR sensor indicate significant degradations in the response of bands 1 and 2 compared to prelaunch values. The results are currently in the process of being verified and it may be that refinements of the methodology will be in order as additional data sets are analyzed. The LANDSAT TM calibration used in this approach is known to be very precise and the Herman radiative transfer code, supplemented by the 5-S code for gaseous transmission, is reliable as well. The extent to which other steps in the analysis procedure give rise to uncertainties in the results is currently under investigation. Particular attention is being given to the geometric matching of the AVHRR and TM imagery, as well as to the spectral redistribution procedure. By taking advantage of a reasonably precise calibration of TM imagery acquired on the same day as the AVHRR data at White Sands, a promising approach to the in-orbit calibration of AVHRR sensors is being developed. Current efforts involve primarily the examination of additional test cases and the investigation of possible simplifications in the procedure through judicious use of atmospheric models.

Slater, P. N.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Light scattering characteristics of various aerosol types derived from multiple wavelength lidar observations

The present study demonstrates the potential of a multiple-wavelength lidar for discriminating between several aerosol types on the basis of the wavelength dependence of the aerosol backscatter coefficient. The two-component lidar equation was solved under the assumption of similarity in the derived profiles of backscatter coefficients for each wavelength. It is shown that a three-wavelength lidar system operating at 300, 600, and 1064nm can provide unique information for discriminating between various aerosol types (continental, maritime, Saharan-dust, stratospheric aerosols in a tropopause fold event, and tropical forest aerosols). Mie calculations were made using in situ aerosol data and aerosol models to compare with the lidar results. The disagreement between the theoretical and empirical results in some cases was substantial. These differences may be partly due to uncertainties in the lidar data analysis and aerosol characteristics and also due to the conventional assumption of aerosol sphericity for the aerosol Mie calculations.

Sasano, Yasuhiro↗
NASA NTRS1995

Ulysses orbit determination at high declinations

The trajectory of the Ulysses spacecraft caused its geocentric declination to exceed 60 deg South for over two months during the Fall of 1994, permitting continuous tracking from a single site. During this time, spacecraft operations constraints allowed only Doppler tracking data to be collected, and imposed a high radial acceleration uncertainty on the orbit determination process. The unusual aspects of this situation have motivated a re-examination of the Hamilton-Melbourne results, which have been used before to estimate the information content of Doppler tracking for trajectories closer to the ecliptic. The addition of an acceleration term to this equation is found to significantly increase the declination uncertainty for symmetric passes. In addition, a simple means is described to transform the symmetric results when the tracking pass is non-symmetric. The analytical results are then compared against numerical studies of this tracking geometry and found to be in good agreement for the angular uncertainties. The results of this analysis are applicable to the Near Earth Asteroid Rendezvous (NEAR) mission and to any other missions with high declination trajectories, as well as to missions using short tracking passes and/or one-way Doppler data.

Mcelrath, Timothy P.↗
NASA NTRS1995

A search for evolutionary changes in planetary nuclei: A continuation

This report summarizes the final results of an IUE investigation to search for signs of evolutionary changes in high-mass central stars of planetary nuclei, as evidenced by UV-optical fading over the lifetime of the satellite. The program is a continuation of an earlier investigation, expanding the target list to include more types of hot central stars and to obtain more spectra of previously observed stars. In order to compare the IUE fluxes of a central star obtained over a more-than-ten-year timespan, several steps were necessary, including reprocessing of very early spectra and correction for the sensitivity degradation of the SWP camera over time. The results indicate that while a few stars appear to have diminished UV fluxes compared to earlier IUE observations, the evidence for this is less than overwhelming due to the sparseness of the data. Those stars which emerge from this study as viable candidates for having faded are the cooler Of-type stars (O6f-O7f), i.e., those for which the change in spectral energy with increasing temperature is greatest. The report describes the data analysis steps and discusses the uncertainties in both the data and in the resulting fading rates. Estimates of stellar mass based on theoretical evolutionary rates are also provided.

Altner, Bruce↗
NASA NTRS1998

Galileo Direction Finding of Jovian Radio Emissions

The Galileo spacecraft, in orbit about Jupiter, has observed distinct spin modulation of plasma wave emissions near the Ganymede (G1 and G2) encounters in the frequency range from about 100 kHz to approximately 6 MHz. Assuming circularly polarized, transverse electromagnetic radiation, we have used the spin modulation of the sweep-frequency receivers of the electric dipole antenna over many spins to estimate the source location in the spin plane of the spacecraft. Hectometric (HOM) and decametric (DAM) emission is observed by Galileo as a general and continuous background with frequent bursts that last tens of minutes and can be separated by minutes or hours. We have analyzed HOM and DAM emissions observed near Jupiter just after the GI and G2 encounters, including two HOM/DAM "arc" signatures observed after the G2 encounter. These latter appear to be low-frequency extensions of DAM arcs, with source regions along either the Io or the Ganymede flux tube. While the uncertainties associated with the data analysis do not allow a precise source location, the HOM/DAM emission observed near the G1 and G2 encounters is consistent with a gyroresonant source region, but it is necessary to require refraction due to the Io torus to understand the results. To explain emission from apparent source regions above a gyroresonant source region, wave refraction from asymmetries in the Io plasma torus that extend along magnetic field lines is postulated. Alternatively, if such torus density asymmetries do not exist, emission with sources above a gyroresonant source region would require another free-energy source such as energetic plasma beams in the presence of density gradients or temperature anisotropies.

Menietti, J. D.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Science Requirements for a Space Flight Experiment Entitled Critical Viscosity of Xenon

We propose to measure in low gravity the viscosity of xenon close to its critical point. The accuracy will be sufficient to eliminate uncertainties currently associated with the analysis of l-g experiments. The measurements will provide the first direct observation of the predicted power-law divergence of viscosity in a pure fluid. The measurements will also strengthen Zeno's test of mode coupling theory by greatly increasing the reliability of the extrapolation of viscosity to low reduced temperatures. Our scientific objectives are described in more detail in one of the attached reports. The low-gravity experiment will be the final stage of a program whose completed ground-based stages are: (1) theoretical studies by one of the principal investigators (MRM) and coworkers, (2) critical viscosity measurements of binary liquid mixtures, (3) critical viscosity measurements of pure fluids in l-g, and development of a suitable vibration-insensitive viscometer. Our technical approach is described in the draft Science Requirements Document. One of us (MRM) has reviewed opportunities for critical phenomena research in low gravity. Both of us were co-principal investigators in the Thermal Equilibration Experiment in the Critical Point Facility, flown on IML-1 in 1992. From this experience, and from the technical maturity of our ground-based work, we believe our critical point viscometer is ready for development as a flight experiment.

Berg, Robert F.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Integrated Modeling Activities for the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST): Structural-Thermal-Optical Analysis

This is a continuation of a series of papers on modeling activities for JWST. The structural-thermal- optical, often referred to as "STOP", analysis process is used to predict the effect of thermal distortion on optical performance. The benchmark STOP analysis for JWST assesses the effect of an observatory slew on wavefront error. The paper begins an overview of multi-disciplinary engineering analysis, or integrated modeling, which is a critical element of the JWST mission. The STOP analysis process is then described. This process consists of the following steps: thermal analysis, structural analysis, and optical analysis. Temperatures predicted using geometric and thermal math models are mapped to the structural finite element model in order to predict thermally-induced deformations. Motions and deformations at optical surfaces are input to optical models and optical performance is predicted using either an optical ray trace or WFE estimation techniques based on prior ray traces or first order optics. Following the discussion of the analysis process, results based on models representing the design at the time of the System Requirements Review. In addition to baseline performance predictions, sensitivity studies are performed to assess modeling uncertainties. Of particular interest is the sensitivity of optical performance to uncertainties in temperature predictions and variations in metal properties. The paper concludes with a discussion of modeling uncertainty as it pertains to STOP analysis.

Johnston, John D.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Uncertainty Modeling Via Frequency Domain Model Validation

Abstract The majority of literature on robust control assumes that a design model is available and that the uncertainty model bounds the actual variations about the nominal model. However, methods for generating accurate design models have not received as much attention in the literature. The influence of the level of accuracy of the uncertainty model on closed loop performance has received even less attention. The research reported herein is an initial step in applying and extending the concept of model validation to the problem of obtaining practical uncertainty models for robust control analysis and design applications. An extension of model validation called 'sequential validation' is presented and applied to a simple spring-mass-damper system to establish the feasibility of the approach and demonstrate the benefits of the new developments.

Waszak, Martin R.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Methods and Results for a Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Validation Network Prototype

As one component of a ground validation system to meet requirements for the upcoming Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission, a quasi-operational prototype a system to compare satellite- and ground-based radar measurements has been developed. This prototype, the GPM Validation Network (VN), acquires data from the Precipitation Radar (PR) on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite and from ground radar (GR) networks in the continental U.S. and participating international sites. PR data serve as a surrogate for similar observations from the Dual-frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR) to be present on GPM. Primary goals of the VN prototype are to understand and characterize the variability and bias of precipitation retrievals between the PR and GR in various precipitation regimes at large scales, and to improve precipitation retrieval algorithms for the GPM instruments. The current VN capabilities concentrate on comparisons of the base reflectivity observations between the PR and GR, and include support for rain rate comparisons. The VN algorithm resamples PR and GR reflectivity and other 2-D and 3-D data fields to irregular common volumes defined by the geometric intersection of the instrument observations, and performs statistical comparisons of PR and GR reflectivity and estimated rain rates. Algorithmic biases and uncertainties introduced by traditional data analysis techniques are minimized by not performing interpolation or extrapolation of data to a fixed grid. The core VN dataset consists of WSR-88D GR data and matching PR orbit subset data covering 21 sites in the southeastern U. S., from August, 2006 to the present. On average, about 3.5 overpass events per month for these WSR-88D sites meet VN criteria for significant precipitation, and have matching PR and GR data available. This large statistical sample has allowed the relative calibration accuracy and stability of the individual ground radars, and the quality of the PR reflectivity attenuation correction in convective and stratiform precipitation to be evaluated. We will present results of PR-GR reflectivity and rain rate bias comparisons for each OR site, and for different rain types, for the full data set and as time series. The capabilities of the statistical analysis and vertical cross section tools for display and analysis of individual site overpass event data will be described, and examples of the tools' outputs will be shown.

Morris, Kenneth R.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Climate Benchmark Missions: CLARREO

CLARREO (Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory) is one of the four Tier 1 missions recommended by the recent NRC decadal survey report on Earth Science and Applications from Space (NRC, 2007). The CLARREO mission addresses the need to rigorously observe climate change on decade time scales and to use decadal change observations as the most critical method to determine the accuracy of climate change projections such as those used in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4). A rigorously known accuracy of both decadal change observations as well as climate projections is critical in order to enable sound policy decisions. The CLARREO mission accomplishes this critical objective through highly accurate and SI traceable decadal change observations sensitive to many of the key uncertainties in climate radiative forcings, responses, and feedbacks that in turn drive uncertainty in current climate model projections. The same uncertainties also lead to uncertainty in attribution of climate change to anthropogenic forcing. The CLARREO breakthrough in decadal climate change observations is to achieve the required levels of accuracy and traceability to SI standards for a set of observations sensitive to a wide range of key decadal change variables. These accuracy levels are determined both by the projected decadal changes as well as by the background natural variability that such signals must be detected against. The accuracy for decadal change traceability to SI standards includes uncertainties of calibration, sampling, and analysis methods. Unlike most other missions, all of the CLARREO requirements are judged not by instantaneous accuracy, but instead by accuracy in large time/space scale average decadal changes. Given the focus on decadal climate change, the NRC Decadal Survey concluded that the single most critical issue for decadal change observations was their lack of accuracy and low confidence in observing the small but critical climate change signals. CLARREO is the recommended attack on this challenge, and builds on the last decade of climate observation advances in the Earth Observing System as well as metrological advances at NIST (National Institute of Standards and Technology) and other standards laboratories.

Wielicki, Bruce A.↗