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NASA NTRS2021

Peru Health & Air Quality: Land Use Change in the Rapidly Developing Peruvian Amazon and Implications on Zoonotic Disease Incidence

In the Madre de Dios region of the Peruvian Amazon, forests are being cleared for mining, timber harvesting, road construction, and hydroelectric dam development. These rapid land use changes are increasing human presence in previously sparsely populated areas, disrupting ecosystems and increasing the proximity of human settlement to zoonotic disease vectors. Dengue fever and leishmaniasis are two neglected tropical diseases which are prevalent in Madre de Dios and have been associated with urbanization and road construction. In partnership with the Peruvian Ministries of Health (MINSA) and the Environment (MINAM) and other in-country collaborators, our team examined Land Use Land Cover (LULC) correlations with reported dengue and leishmaniasis incidence in the Madre de Dios region to help partners understand the spatial relationship between land use change and zoonotic disease incidence. We created a LULC classification script using Google Earth Engine with Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper and Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager imagery to classify land cover in 2010, 2015, and 2020 and evaluate changes over this time period. We then used the quantified results of the LULC assessment in conjunction with reported disease cases to evaluate correlations between disease incidence and key land cover changes across Madre de Dios’s 11 districts. In the second term, the team will use these products to develop more detailed disease incidence risk maps and models. High risk areas will then be classified, using PeruSat-1 that allow for even higher resolution mapping at less than 3 meters. These products will allow the partners to understand hotspots of land cover change in Peru and the relationship with outbreaks to inform public health decision making and environmental policy.

Elizabeth Stapleton↗
NASA NTRS2021

Reconciling Assumptions in Bottom-up and Top-down Approaches for Estimating Aerosol Emission Rates from Wildland Fires using Observations from FIREX-AQ

Accurate fire emissions inventories are crucial to predict the impacts of wildland fires on air quality and atmospheric composition. Two traditional approaches are widely used to calculate fire emissions: a satellite-based top-down approach and a fuels-based bottom-up approach. However, these methods often considerably disagree on the amount of particulate mass emitted from fires. Previously available observational datasets tended to be sparse, and lacked the statistics needed to resolve these methodological discrepancies. Here, we leverage the extensive and comprehensive airborne in situ and remote sensing measurements of smoke plumes from the recent Fire Influence on Regional to Global Environments and Air Quality (FIREX-AQ) campaign to statistically assess the skill of the two traditional approaches. We use detailed campaign observations to calculate and compare emission rates at an exceptionally high-resolution using three separate approaches: top-down, bottom-up, and a novel approach based entirely on integrated airborne in situ measurements. We then compute the daily average of these high-resolution estimates and compare with estimates from lower resolution, global top-down and bottom-up inventories. We uncover strong, linear relationships between all of the high-resolution emission rate estimates in aggregate, however no single approach is capable of capturing the emission characteristics of every fire. Global inventory emission rate estimates exhibited weaker correlations with the high-resolution approaches and displayed evidence of systematic bias. The disparity between the low resolution global inventories and the high-resolution approaches is likely caused by high levels of uncertainty in essential variables used in bottom-up inventories and imperfect assumptions in top-down inventories. Plain Language Summary Smoke emitted by wildland fires is dangerous to human health and contributes to climate change.To predict and evaluate the impacts of fires, we need to know how much smoke is emitted into the atmosphere. There are two state-of-the-art methods used to estimate the mass of smoke emitted by fires, but they often disagree. In this study, we use unusually detailed measurements collected using an aircraft that flew within wildland fire smoke plumes to calculate the amount ofsmoke emitted from fires in the Western United States. We compare emission rates derived from the exceptionally high spatial and temporal resolution approach to the two traditional, lower resolution approaches to understand why they sometimes diverge

E B Wiggins↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Benefits of using Electronic Data Sheets (EDS) with coreFlight Systems (cFS) - A Project Example

Recently there has been interest in the incorporation of core Flight Systems (cFS) with Spacecraft Onboard Interface Services (SOIS) Electronic Data Sheets (EDS) in the spaceflight software community. The Regenerative Fuel Cell project at the Glenn Research Center is using cFS architecture with EDS support for its monitoring and control software. The presentation will outline the benefits to using cFS with EDS support: First, EDS establishes a single source of truth for the definitions of data structures used throughout an entire mission that may otherwise be programmed in different languages and designed with different processor architectures. Not only does this help with inter-application communication via the software bus, but it also greatly simplifies communication between systems. An EDS Application Programming Interface (API) library allows the conversion of EDS data structures to and from native data structures. Second, bindings for other programming languages (e.g. Lua, Python, JSON) have been written to allow the creation and manipulation of EDS data objects within those languages. The RFC project uses Lua scripts to automatically generate binary configuration files at build time to be loaded into our cFS programs. We also use Python bindings in a graphical user interface (GUI) to allow an operator to send commands and view telemetry messages sent from cFS instances. Finally, using Lua scripts we can set up specific simulation scenarios to perform automatic functional testing. During the development of the RFC software, the software team put together a generic python GUI called “cFS-EDS-GroundStation” that provides a basic interface to an instance of cFS with EDS support. The GUI includes a basic telecommand and telemetry system that reads directly from the generated EDS databases. In the telecommand system, dropdown menus are populated with all user commands that are defined in EDS. In the telemetry system, telemetry messages are automatically decoded, written to the screen, and saved to a binary file. Additional Python scripts have been written to convert the binary data files into a comma separated value (CSV) format for further processing. We will demonstrate the basic use of the cFS-EDS-GroundStation software including adding additional commands and telemetry payload values in EDS and see them appear automatically in the cFS-EDS-Groundstation software. About the RFC project: The Regenerative Fuel Cell project is tasked with developing and demonstrating a power system consisting of a fuel cell and electrolyzer to provide power during a lunar day/night cycle. During the night, the fuel cell takes Hydrogen and Oxygen gasses and converts them into electricity, water, and heat. During the day, the electrolyzer takes input power (e.g. from a photovoltaic array) and converts water back into Hydrogen and Oxygen gasses.

Mathew Mccaskey↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Use of Diffusion Bonded Cu Strap and Integrated MLI for Thermal Control of 100 K IR Detector on L’Ralph Instrument

Passive cooling of cryogenic instruments is one of the most challenging aspects of spaceflight thermal control systems. They are highly sensitive to parasitic heat leaks from their warmer environment, especially the spacecraft components. The L’Ralph instrument on the Lucy mission is an example of such a system, with its LEISA detector requiring passive cooling to temperatures below 112 K. MLI performance can be measured in terms of estar, and analysts apply bias between a high and low estar value. This approach works well for conventional MLI at room temperature, however, it can be dangerous when a mission goes through a wide range of temperatures during its lifetime, with estar values increasing exponentially as temperatures get colder. Various estar correlations are presented as well as how L’Ralph is approaching the MLI problem with the use of IMLI. IMLI uses discrete spacers to isolate each layer, and doesn’t require intermediate layers such as dacron netting. This results in estar performance that can be more precisely estimated, and yields valuesaround 0.004 at the 112K operating temperature. L’Ralph is using IMLI on the backside of the radiator, which permits a more effective use of increased radiator area, by minimizing the area dependent heat leak impact from the instrument backloading. The detector is thermally coupled to the radiator via a diffusion bonded Cu strap. The diffusion bonding process chemically bonds the Cu foil ends in order to maximize heat transfer effectiveness across the multiple foils used. Employing a pressure compensation design via the use of Ti blocks and a clamp at the strap ends ensures that as temperatures go colder, pre-load is maintained in order to minimize resistance at the strap ends. The use of both of these technologies, and how they work together are crucial to the success of the L’Ralph thermal control system.

Thermal↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Super-Resolution from Space: Using MERRA-2 and MAIAC Satellite Imagery to Produce Daily Continuous 1 km PM2.5 Estimates

PM2.5 measurements from ground stations are the gold standard when available, but the expense and coverage of such stations limits widespread monitoring. Having accurate PM2.5 estimates outside the range of these stations is important for monitoring this crucial aspect of air quality. The goal of this project is to produce daily 1 km continuous PM2.5 estimates for the contiguous US relying primarily on satellite-derived data sources. This is important because models based on such data can be more easily expanded outside the study area and produce global estimates as well. The temporal availability of such data products is often weekly/daily, unlike land-use products with are often available at a yearly or worse temporal resolution. To achieve our goal, we use a couple of different deep neural network architectures to produce PM2.5 measurements at 10 km and 1 km resolution. We use two model architectures, a UNET-like model and a GAN-based model. We train both models using MERRA-2 data and MAIAC AOD data scaled to 10 km and 1 km for the two different prediction resolutions. MERRA-2 imagery is data rich with a wide range of geospatial variables at 50 km and has long historical availability (beginning in 1980). We’re also using higher spatial resolution MAIAC data at 1 km to provide finer resolution spatial context. This essentially leverages the spatial resolution of MAIAC data and the “wider” information of MERRA-2 data to predict PM2.5. For the target data we’re using a modeled 1 km PM2.5 dataset produced by Harvard to pre-train our models and then fine-tune our models using ground station measurements. Not only are our results comparable with the performance of the Harvard dataset, but can be generalized to any area or time where MERRA-2 and MAIAC data is available.

satellite imagery↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Method Development for Multiplex, In-Situ, and Real-Time Detection of Herpesvirus Reactivation in Spaceflight Crews using Nanopore Sequencing

Reactivation of latent herpesviruses in crews onboard the International Space Station (ISS) is a well-established spaceflight-associated phenomenon and has been linked to overall immune stress. Beyond an indicator of an altered immune state, this stress-induced reactivation of viruses such as herpesvirus simplex virus 1 (HSV-1), Epstein-Barr virus (EBV), and Varicella-Zoster virus (VZV) may cause clinical symptoms in crew. There is currently no established protocol for in-flight monitoring, and samples are analyzed post-flight using ground-based assays. A real-time, in-flight method for herpesvirus detection followed by stress-mitigation strategies would be a significant advance. In this study, we developed a real-time assay for the multiplex detection of HSV-1, EBV, and VZV from saliva that could be implemented for in-situ monitoring of ISS crew. This method builds on previously validated spaceflight-compatible portable molecular protocols and platforms, such as the miniPCR thermal cycler and the MinION sequencer. Since a metagenomic approach is not currently permitted for crew samples (NASA policy), we employed multiplexing-ready primers directed toward targeted regions within the HSV-1, EBV, and VZV genomes. We also used primers for the human gene, Statherin (STATH), as an internal control. These primers were validated using spiked-in, positive control HSV-1, EBV, and VZV from virus-negative saliva extracted using the Zymo-Research Quick-DNA/RNA Viral MagBead Kit. The PCR Barcoding Kit was used to prepare DNA libraries that were then sequenced on the MK1C and analyzed against known reference genomes using minimap2. Following validation of this method with spiked saliva samples, suspected herpesvirus-positive clinical saliva samples were successfully tested. Prior to use onboard the ISS, this method will be deployed to an analog environment during overwintering at Palmer Station, Antarctica in 2023. This work represents the successful application of molecular technologies currently onboard the ISS for the real-time monitoring of latent herpesvirus reactivation from saliva samples. This assay, in combination with stress-reduction strategies, holds the potential to manage herpesvirus reactivation in ISS crew, thereby improving health outcomes and overall immunity.

Patrick M. Rydzak↗
NASA NTRS2022

Quantifying Errors in 3D CME Parameters Derived from Synthetic Data Using White-Light Reconstruction Techniques

Current efforts in space weather forecasting of CMEs have been focused on predicting their arrival time and magnetic structure. To make these predictions, methods have been developed to derive the true CME speed, size, position, and mass, among others. Difficulties in determining the input parameters for CME forecasting models arise from the lack of direct measurements of the coronal magnetic fields and uncertainties in estimating the CME 3D geometric and kinematic parameters after eruption. White-light coronagraph images are usually employed by a variety of CME reconstruction techniques that assume more or less complex geometries. This is the first study from our International Space Science Institute (ISSI) team “Understanding Our Capabilities in Observing and Modeling Coronal Mass Ejections”, in which we explore how subjectivity affects the 3D CME parameters that are obtained from the Graduated Cylindrical Shell (GCS) reconstruction technique, which is widely used in CME research. To be able to quantify such uncertainties, the “true” values that are being fitted should be known, which are impossible to derive from observational data. We have designed two different synthetic scenarios where the “true” geometric parameters are known in order to quantify such uncertainties for the first time. We explore this by using two sets of synthetic data: 1) Using the ray-tracing option from the GCS model software itself, and 2) Using 3D magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation data from the Magnetohydrodynamic Algorithm outside a Sphere code. Our experiment includes different viewing configurations using single and multiple viewpoints. CME reconstructions using a single viewpoint had the largest errors and error ranges overall for both synthetic GCS and simulated MHD white-light data. As the number of viewpoints increased from one to two, the errors decreased by approximately 4° in latitude, 22° in longitude, 14° in tilt, and 10° in half-angle. Our results quantitatively show the critical need for at least two viewpoints to be able to reduce the uncertainty in deriving CME parameters. We did not find a significant decrease in errors when going from two to three viewpoints for our specific hypothetical three spacecraft scenario using synthetic GCS white-light data. As we expected, considering all configurations and numbers of viewpoints, the mean absolute errors in the measured CME parameters are generally significantly higher in the case of the simulated MHD white-light data compared to those from the synthetic white-light images generated by the GCS model. We found the following CME parameter error bars as a starting point for quantifying the minimum error in CME parameters from white-light reconstructions: Δθ (latitude)=6° +2° -3° , Δϕ (longitude)=11° +18° -6° , Δγ (tilt)=25° +8° -7° , Δx (half-angle)=10° +12° -6° , Δh (height)=0.6 +1.2 -0.4 R ⨀ , and Δκ (ratio)=0.1 +0.03 -0.02 .

Coronal mass ejections↗
NASA NTRS2022

Exploring Applications of Machine Learning for Wildfire Monitoring and Detection using Unmanned Aerial Vehicles

Wildfires are increasing in frequency and severity around the world, including the United States. The losses caused by wildfires could be mitigated if high-risk areas, hotspots, and flare-ups could be monitored continuously, such as through the use of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs). This paper documents exploratory efforts using machine learning to determine efficient flight paths for UAVs and to detect wildfires using image classification. On path planning, three machine learning techniques—Genetic Algorithm, Simulated Annealing, and Dynamic Programming—were explored. Genetic Algorithm was found to be an effective approach for path planning for wildfire monitoring and surveillance by UAVs. For a scenario of 25 locations in a circular arrangement, the algorithm was able to return the optimal path. The accuracy and execution time was found to be sensitive to the algorithm hyperparameters selected, which was especially evident in scenarios with hundreds or thousands of locations. Simulated Annealing was also found to be an effective approach for UAV path planning, with a major benefit of avoiding getting trapped in local minima and being straightforward to implement. Like Genetic Algorithm, the performance of Simulated Annealing was also found to be sensitive to the algorithm hyperparameters selected. By comparison, Dynamic Programming guarantees optimality for any number of locations, but it was found to be less practical in terms of execution time for scenarios with more than about a couple dozen locations. On wildfire detection, image classification using deep learning with a convolutional neural network was explored. Transfer learning was found to be a useful technique to efficiently train deep learning models. Also, it was determined that GPU processing can increase training speed by an order of magnitude, which enables significantly faster development. For a validation test set of 500 images, there were only two false negatives and zero false positives. These results demonstrate that detecting wildfires in static cameras using machine learning is feasible and establish a baseline for using images captured by UAVs in flight for wildfire detection.

Wildfire management↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Comparison of Entry Descent and Landing Aerodynamic Databases with Uncertainty Quantification Developed Using Machine Learning Techniques

When developing the aerodynamic databases for use in trajectory simulations, it is important to develop a system of metrics to qualify which aerodynamic models are best to use. Since aerodynamics are just one input into trajectory simulations, the results of these simulations do not reflect on the quality of the aerodynamic database used. This means that aerodynamic database comparisons must be done offline. While traditional metrics that focus on mean/nominal predictions are a good first step, more robust estimates of the prediction interval become important as more focused uncertainty models are developed. We explore the limitations of evaluating aerodynamic models based purely on nominal-centered response surfaces. Before elaborating and evaluating metrics based on distributed models, the value of evaluating prediction interval and confidence interval are discussed to conclude that prediction intervals are more relevant to the use of trajectory analysis. Several metrics to evaluate the prediction interval are introduced with a focus on the standard calibration metric. Finally, we compare candidate models using both mean and distributed metrics. A finalized candidate model developed using state of the art machine learning methods is compared to a baseline model developed using traditional aerodynamic database modeling techniques.

Aerodynamic Database↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Development of Carbon Flux Model Using ABI Data Over the Conterminous US

The satellite-driven carbon flux estimation has been playing important role to estimate continental-scale carbon budget. One of the biggest recent advances in the satellite-driven carbon flux modeling is utilization of high-frequent geostationary satellites to estimate diurnal cycle in carbon fluxes. The satellite based carbon flux estimation used the polar orbiting satellite sensors (e.g., Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)), which allow us to observe target regions only once during the day. The new generation of geostationary satellite sensors provide frequent observations, often less than every 10 minutes. Here, we use GOES Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) data to estimate hourly NEE over the conterminous US. We used the Terrestrial Observation Prediction System (TOPS) model for estimating hourly NEE. TOPS is a diagnostic ecosystem process model that simulates the fluxes of carbon and water through vegetation in response to climate variability. For the climate input, we developed hourly climate data using the same algorithm with NASA Earth Exchange Gridded Daily Meteorology (NEX-GDM) datasets based on machine learning techniques. The hourly climate data includes precipitation, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, dew point temperature, and solar radiation were derived from the Geostationary observations. The spatial patterns of ecosystem parameters used in TOPS are optimized using satellite Solar Induced Fluorescence (SIF) data. The high frequency GPP estimations from geostationary satellite sensors make it comparable to the instantaneous SIF data than daily GPP. We also used Ameriflux data for optimization of model parameters and the validation of the output. The derived data addresses the diurnal dynamics of carbon cycling at large scales and should help in reducing the uncertainties in carbon budget studies.

geostationary satellite↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

An Approach to Shape Parameterization Using Laboratory Hypervelocity Impact Experiments

NASA’s Orbital Debris Program Office relies on laboratory-based impact tests to supplement the measurement data of on-orbit events that defines the orbital debris environment. These experiments provide information that is essential to interpreting the radar and optical measurements of orbital fragmentation events into useful metrics, such as characteristic size of the debris, and to providing a better understanding of the distributions of fragment populations in terms of their masses, material constituents, fragment densities, cross-sectional areas, area-to-mass ratios, shapes, etc. The Satellite Orbital Debris Characterization Impact Test (SOCIT) was a notable laboratory impact experiment conducted in 1992 using a surplus U.S. Navy Transit navigation satellite of the 1960s. The data from this ground-based experiment were combined with on-orbit measurements to develop the NASA Standard Satellite Breakup Model (SSBM). To account for advancements in satellite design and construction since, a new impact test series – DebriSat – was conducted in 2014. This test utilized a high-fidelity mock-up spacecraft that better represents the materials and construction techniques used to design and manufacture modern spacecraft. Together, these tests offer valuable data to model an orbital debris environment composed of legacy and modern spacecraft. This paper presents an overview of the two laboratory impact tests, comparing their fragment parameter distributions with each other and with relevant distributions from the NASA SSBM. The categorization and descriptions of fragment shapes are of significant interest for future work, yet there are marked differences in the definitions of shape categories between each dataset. The categorizations of constituent materials, and the measurement techniques employed to populate these two datasets, are also different. New rubrics simplify and equate the categorizations between datasets to aid comparative analyses and to facilitate the potential use of both datasets in tandem with future environmental debris models. A preferred approach to classifying shape across disparate datasets uses the characteristic-length dimensions, and a simplified shape classification based on physical, solid-body dimensions, to mathematically construct an encapsulating right-circular cylinder that represents the fragment. The ratio of cylinder length-to-diameter (L:D) then provides a single continuum value for shape that is strongly correlated with its designated shape and size. This metric can then be used to further assess the distribution of shape with populations of other fragment characteristics within these datasets. The shape parameterization using the L:D ratios of right-circular cylinders is discussed.

John H. Seago↗
NASA NTRS2022

Quantifying Errors in 3D CME Parameters Derived From Synthetic Data Using White-Light Reconstruction Techniques

Current efforts in space weather forecasting of CMEs have been focused on predicting their arrival time and magnetic structure. To make these predictions, methods have been developed to derive the true CME speed, size, position, and mass, among others. Difficulties in determining the input parameters for CME forecasting models arise from the lack of direct measurements of the coronal magnetic fields and uncertainties in estimating the CME 3D geometric and kinematic parameters after eruption. White-light coronagraph images are usually employed by a variety of CME reconstruction techniques that assume more or less complex geometries. This is the first study from our International Space Science Institute (ISSI) team “Understanding Our Capabilities in Observing and Modeling Coronal Mass Ejections”, in which we explore how subjectivity affects the 3D CME parameters that are obtained from the Graduated Cylindrical Shell (GCS) reconstruction technique, which is widely used in CME research. To be able to quantify such uncertainties, the “true” values that are being fitted should be known, which are impossible to derive from observational data. We have designed two different synthetic scenarios where the “true” geometric parameters are known in order to quantify such uncertainties for the first time. We explore this by using two sets of synthetic data: 1) Using the ray-tracing option from the GCS model software itself, and 2) Using 3D magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation data from the Magnetohydrodynamic Algorithm outside a Sphere code. Our experiment includes different viewing configurations using single and multiple viewpoints. CME reconstructions using a single viewpoint had the largest errors and error ranges overall for both synthetic GCS and simulated MHD white-light data. As the number of viewpoints increased from one to two, the errors decreased by approximately 4° in latitude, 22° in longitude, 14° in tilt, and 10° in half-angle. Our results quantitatively show the critical need for at least two viewpoints to be able to reduce the uncertainty in deriving CME parameters. We did not find a significant decrease in errors when going from two to three viewpoints for our specific hypothetical three spacecraft scenario using synthetic GCS white-light data. As we expected, considering all configurations and numbers of viewpoints, the mean absolute errors in the measured CME parameters are generally significantly higher in the case of the simulated MHD white-light data compared to those from the synthetic white-light images generated by the GCS model. We found the following CME parameter error bars as a starting point for quantifying the minimum error in CME parameters from white-light reconstructions: Δθ (latitude)=6° +2° -3° , Δϕ (longitude)=11° +18° -6° , Δγ (tilt)=25° +8° -7° , Δx (half-angle)=10° +12° -6° , Δh (height)=0.6 +1.2 -0.4 R ⨀ , and Δκ (ratio)=0.1 +0.03 -0.02 .

Coronal mass ejections↗
NASA NTRS2023

Using Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) column CO2 retrievals to rapidly detect and estimate biospheric surface carbon flux anomalies

The global carbon cycle is experiencing continued perturbations via increases in atmospheric carbon concentrations, which are partly reduced by terrestrial biosphere and ocean carbon uptake. Greenhouse gas satellites have been shown to be useful in retrieving atmospheric carbon concentrations and observing surface and atmospheric CO2 seasonal-to-interannual variations. However, limited attention has been placed on using satellite column CO2 retrievals to evaluate surface CO2 fluxes from the terrestrial biosphere without advanced inversion models at low latency. Such applications could be useful to monitor, in near real time, biosphere carbon fluxes during climatic anomalies like drought, heatwaves, and floods, before more complex terrestrial biosphere model outputs and/or advanced inversion modelling estimates become available. Here, we explore the ability of Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) column-averaged dry air CO2 (XCO2) retrievals to directly detect and estimate terrestrial biosphere CO2 flux anomalies using a simple mass-balance approach. An initial global analysis of surface–atmospheric CO2 coupling and transport conditions reveals that the western US, among a handful of other regions, is a feasible candidate for using XCO2 for detecting terrestrial biosphere CO2 flux anomalies. Using the CarbonTracker model reanalysis as a test bed, we first demonstrate that a well-established mass-balance approach can estimate monthly surface CO2 flux anomalies from XCO2 enhancements in the western United States. The method is optimal when the study domain is spatially extensive enough to account for atmospheric mixing and has favorable advection conditions with contributions primarily from one background region. We find that errors in individual soundings reduce the ability of OCO-2 XCO2 to estimate more frequent, smaller surface CO2 flux anomalies. However, we find that OCO-2 XCO2 can often detect and estimate large surface flux anomalies that leave an imprint on the atmospheric CO2 concentration anomalies beyond the retrieval error/uncertainty associated with the observations. OCO-2 can thus be useful for low-latency monitoring of the monthly timing and magnitude of extreme regional terrestrial biosphere carbon anomalies.

Andrew F. Feldman↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

An Approach to Shape Parameterization Using Laboratory Hypervelocity Impact Experiments

NASA’s Orbital Debris Program Office relies on laboratory-based impact tests to supplement the measurement data of on-orbit events that defines the orbital debris environment. These experiments provide information that is essential to interpreting the radar and optical measurements of orbital fragmentation events into useful metrics, such as characteristic size of the debris, and to providing a better understanding of the distributions of fragment populations in terms of their masses, material constituents, fragment densities, cross-sectional areas, area-to-mass ratios, shapes, etc. The Satellite Orbital Debris Characterization Impact Test (SOCIT) was a notable laboratory impact experiment conducted in 1992 using a surplus U.S. Navy Transit navigation satellite of the 1960s. The data from this ground-based experiment were combined with on-orbit measurements to develop the NASA Standard Satellite Breakup Model (SSBM). To account for advancements in satellite design and construction since, a new impact test series – DebriSat – was conducted in 2014. This test utilized a high-fidelity mock-up spacecraft that better represents the materials and construction techniques used to design and manufacture modern spacecraft. Together, these tests offer valuable data to model an orbital debris environment composed of legacy and modern spacecraft. This paper presents an overview of the two laboratory impact tests, comparing their fragment parameter distributions with each other and with relevant distributions from the NASA SSBM. The categorization and descriptions of fragment shapes are of significant interest for future work, yet there are marked differences in the definitions of shape categories between each dataset. The categorizations of constituent materials, and the measurement techniques employed to populate these two datasets, are also different. New rubrics simplify and equate the categorizations between datasets to aid comparative analyses and to facilitate the potential use of both datasets in tandem with future environmental debris models. A preferred approach to classifying shape across disparate datasets uses the characteristic-length dimensions, and a simplified shape classification based on physical, solid-body dimensions, to mathematically construct an encapsulating right-circular cylinder that represents the fragment. The ratio of cylinder length-to-diameter (L:D) then provides a single continuum value for shape that is strongly correlated with its designated shape and size. This metric can then be used to further assess the distribution of shape with populations of other fragment characteristics within these datasets. The shape parameterization using the L:D ratios of right-circular cylinders is discussed.

John H Seago↗
NASA NTRS2024

Discrete Event Simulation-Based Timeline Validation Using R2U2

The Gateway Vehicle Systems Manager (VSM), the top-level software control system in a distributed, hierarchical Autonomous System Management Architecture is, like most modern spacecraft software control systems, heavily data-driven. For example, schedules (timelines) will be developed on the ground and, due to the high degree of autonomy, contain complex procedures involving conditional branching, variable timing, and resource contention resolution. In order to verify that an uploaded timeline will function correctly, it is necessary to explore the feasible set of possible executions. While it is possible to test a timeline using a mission simulation, the complexity of the system and duration of a timeline limits the number of trials and therefore the test coverage. To address this problem, the VSM team is using a discrete event system model that can rapidly generate from a timeline sets of event sequences using Monte Carlo techniques. To achieve rapid and trustworthy checking of the event sequences, we use an offline version of the runtime model checking tool R2U2. This presentation describes the approach the VSM team is using to implement the discrete event simulation and evaluate event sequences using R2U2. The presentation will discuss: 1. Description of the timelines by VSM in the context of VSM operations 2. Expansion of a timeline into a sequence of atomic events 3. Adjustment, in the Monte Carlo environment, of an event sequence to account for uncertainty, external events, and failures 4. Definition of R2U2 input and mission-time linear temporal logic files 5. Generation and use of R2U2 verdict sequences 6. Lessons learned and future work

Verification↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Nodal Modeling of Tank Pressurization and Draining using a Multi-Node-Ullage Approach

The purpose of the pressurization system in liquid rocket propulsion is to control the pressure in the gas space of the propellant tank (known as the ullage space) and the propellant mass flowrate to the engine. A mathematical model is required to predict the amount of pressurant necessary to ensure that pressure and temperature levels inside the tank remain within acceptable limits and that the propellant pressure leaving the tank satisfies the net positive suction pressure (NPSP) requirement of the pump feeding the engine. Nodal codes typically model tank pressurization and draining using a single node to represent the ullage and a single node to represent the propellant. As the tank drains, the ullage node grows and the propellant node shrinks. The heat transfer between ullage to wall and ullage to propellant is governed by natural convection. Designers of liquid propulsion systems often use empirical correlations to estimate the “Collapse Factor” which represents the ratio of pressurant required with heat transfer and the amount of pressurant required without heat transfer. A single node ullage model of tank pressurization was developed using GFSSP to compute the collapse factor reasonably well and later was used to model tank pressurization during test firing of the FASTRAC rocket engine. The predicted tank pressure compared well with the test data. In the early 1970’s, pressurization and drain tests with liquid methane were performed at NASA Lewis Research Center in a vacuum chamber. A 5 ft diameter spherical aluminum tank was tested to drain from 95% to 5% full using gaseous helium, hydrogen, nitrogen and methane as pressurant. Tests were conducted with different pressurant inlet temperatures and drain times. Measured data include pressurant requirement, amount of pressurant condensed, and ullage and wall temperatures at various heights in the ullage space at the end of draining. A single node GFSSP model was developed to simulate helium pressurization of the methane tank. Predicted helium consumption was 8-23% less than measured. The average error of the six test cases was 16%. A single ullage node with multiple solid node model was developed using Thermal Desktop. Predicted helium consumption compares with the test data within 2%. This paper describes the development of a GFSSP multi-node ullage model of the test configuration and compares the predicted pressurant consumption for both helium and autogenous pressurization using gaseous methane with experimental as well as TD predictions.

Nodal Model↗
NASA NTRS2024

Critical Load Exceedances for North America and Europe using an Ensemble of Models and an Investigation of Causes for Environmental Impact Estimate Variability: An AQMEII4 Study

Exceedances of critical loads for deposition of sulphur (S) and nitrogen (N) to different ecosystems were estimated using European and North American ensembles of air quality models, under Phase 4 of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII4), to identify where risk of ecosystem harm is expected to occur based on model deposition estimates. The ensembles were driven by common emissions and lateral boundary condition inputs. Model output was regridded to common North American and Europe 0.125° resolution domains, which were then used to calculate critical load exceedances. New, targeted deposition diagnostics implemented in AQMEII4 allowed an unprecedented level of post-simulation analysis to be carried out and facilitated the identification of specific causes of model-to-model variability in critical load exceedance estimates. New datasets for North American critical loads for acidity for forest soil water and aquatic ecosystems were combined with the ensemble deposition predictions to show a substantial decrease in the area and number of locations in exceedance between 2010 and 2016 (forest soils: 13.2 % to 6.1 %; aquatic ecosystems: 21.2 % to 11.4 %). All models agreed in the direction of the ensemble exceedance change between 2010 and 2016. The North American ensemble also predicted a decrease in both severity and total area in exceedance between the years 2010 and 2016 for eutrophication-impacted ecosystems in the USA (sensitive epiphytic lichen: 81.5 % to 75.8 %). The exceedances for herbaceous community richness also decreased between 2010 and 2016, from 13.9 % to 3.9 %. The uncertainty associated with the North American eutrophication results is high; there were sharp differences between the models in both predictions of total N deposition and the change in N deposition, and hence in the predicted eutrophication exceedances between the two years. The European ensemble was used to predict relatively static exceedances of critical loads with respect to acidification (4.48 % to 4.32 % from 2009 to 2010) while eutrophication exceedance increased slightly (60.2 % to 62.2 %). While most models showed the same changes in critical load exceedances as the ensemble between the two years, the spatial extent and magnitude of exceedances varied significantly between the models. The reasons for this variation were examined in detail by first ranking the relative contribution of different sources of sulphur and nitrogen deposition in terms of deposited mass and model-to-model variability in that deposited mass, followed by their analysis using AQMEII4 diagnostics, along with evaluation of the most recent literature. All models in both the North American and European ensembles had net annual negative biases with respect to observed wet deposition of sulphate, nitrate and ammonium. Diagnostics and recent literature suggest that this bias may stem from insufficient cloud scavenging of aerosols and gases, and may be improved through the incorporation of multiphase hydrometeor scavenging within the modelling frameworks. The inability of North American models to predict the timing of the seasonal peak in wet ammonium ion deposition (observed maximum was in April, while all models predicted a June maximum) may also relate to the need for multiphase hydrometeor scavenging (absence of snow scavenging in all models employed here). High variability in the relative importance of particulate sulphate, nitrate and ammonium deposition fluxes between models was linked to the use of updated particle dry deposition parameterizations in some models. However, recent literature and further development of some of the models within the ensemble suggests these particulate biases may also be ameliorated via the incorporation of multiphase hydrometeor scavenging. Annual sulphur and nitrogen deposition prediction variability was linked to SO 2 and HNO 3 dry deposition parameterizations, and diagnostic analysis showed that the cuticle and soil deposition pathways dominate the deposition mass flux of these species. Further work improving parameterizations for these deposition pathways should reduce variability in model acidifying gas deposition estimates. The absence of base cation chemistry in some models was shown to be a major factor in positive biases in fine mode particulate ammonium and particle nitrate concentrations. Models employing ammonia bidirectional fluxes had both the largest and the smallest magnitude biases, depending on the model and bidirectional flux algorithm employed. A careful analysis of bidirectional flux models suggests that those with poor NH 3 performance may underestimate the extent of NH 3 emissions fluxes from forested areas. Based on these results, an increased process-research focus is therefore recommended for the following model processes and on observations which may assist in model evaluation and improvement: multiphase hydrometeor scavenging combined with updated particle dry deposition, cuticle and soil deposition pathway algorithms for acidifying gases, base cation chemistry and emissions, and NH 3 bidirectional fluxes. Comparisons with satellite observations suggest that oceanic NH 3 emissions sources should be included in regional chemical transport models. The choice of land use database employed within any given model was shown to significantly influence deposition totals in several instances, and employing a common land use database across chemical transport models and critical load calculations is recommended for future work.

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Using Thermal Desktop to Determine Equivalent Solar Hours on Spacecraft Surfaces

Equivalent solar hours (ESH) are the duration of exposure of a surface to solar radiation, particularly ultraviolet (UV) radiation. Since UV light causes degradation to optical properties of thermal control surfaces, the determination of ESH is important to calculate end of life (EOL) optical properties for spacecraft external surfaces. A higher ESH value generally correlates to greater UV degradation experienced by the surface, resulting in an increase in solar absorptivity. This paper details a novel approach for calculating ESH using Thermal Desktop. Since the ESH value is useful for thermal analysts, this technique is beneficial to quickly perform the analysis internally with tools readily available without relying on external support and funding. The example presented in this paper shows how this method was developed and used for NASA's lunar Gateway spacecraft. This method of analysis is used to calculate ESH for the transit, assembly in orbit, and operational phases for Gateway, utilizing each of the program’s planned configurations throughout its 15-year lifetime. ESH values were calculated using the Monte-Carlo ray tracing capability of Thermal Desktop using both direct solar heating and indirect solar heating due to reflections from other surfaces. The output of this analysis includes an ESH gradient map across the spacecraft. Post-processing of these results enabled identification of the average and maximum ESH on critical surfaces such as radiators. The final ESH values for each surface are then used for determination of EOL optical properties.

Thermal Control↗