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At least 1,315 records · Page 73

Application of Artificial Neural Networks to the Development of Improved Multi-Sensor Retrievals of Near-Surface Air Temperature and Humidity Over Ocean

Improved estimates of near-surface air temperature and air humidity are critical to the development of more accurate turbulent surface heat fluxes over the ocean. Recent progress in retrieving these parameters has been made through the application of artificial neural networks (ANN) and the use of multi-sensor passive microwave observations. Details are provided on the development of an improved retrieval algorithm that applies the nonlinear statistical ANN methodology to a set of observations from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E) and the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU-A) that are currently available from the NASA AQUA satellite platform. Statistical inversion techniques require an adequate training dataset to properly capture embedded physical relationships. The development of multiple training datasets containing only in-situ observations, only synthetic observations produced using the Community Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM), or a mixture of each is discussed. An intercomparison of results using each training dataset is provided to highlight the relative advantages and disadvantages of each methodology. Particular emphasis will be placed on the development of retrievals in cloudy versus clear-sky conditions. Near-surface air temperature and humidity retrievals using the multi-sensor ANN algorithms are compared to previous linear and non-linear retrieval schemes.

Roberts, J. Brent↗

Analysis on H Spectral Shape During the Early 2012 SEPs with the PAMELA Experiment

The satellite-borne PAMELA experiment has been continuously collecting data since 2006.This apparatus is designed to study charged particles in the cosmic radiation. The combination of a permanent magnet, a silicon strip tracker and a silicon-tungsten imaging calorimeter, and the redundancy of instrumentation allow very precise studies on the physics of cosmic rays in a wide energy range and with high statistics. This makes PAMELA a very suitable instrument for Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) observations. Not only does its pan the energy range between the ground-based neutron monitor data and the observations of SEPs from space,but PAMELA also carries out the first direct measurements of the composition for the highest energy SEP events, including those causing Ground Level Enhancements (GLEs).In particular, PAMELA has registered many SEP events during solar cycle 24,offering unique opportunities to address the question of high-energy SEP origin. A preliminary analysis on proton spectra behaviour during this event is presented in this work.

Protons↗

Real-Time Early Warning Techniques

Contemporary approaches to aerospace vehicle system monitoring rely heavily on thresholds that represent a compromise between providing warning early enough to avert a mishap while simultaneously minimizing false alarms. While this reliance on thresholds has been in place for decades and has permeated both cockpits and control rooms, we often find it insufficient when retrospectively analyzing data from an accident. To modernize and enhance flight test safety, we introduce new methods of monitoring for anomalous patterns of interaction rather than for thresholds exceedance. For systems with a well characterized baseline we show how the Inductive Monitoring System (IMS), utilized by NASA in the aftermath of the Columbia accident, might be implemented in real-time to provide earlier warning than currently employed techniques. For systems without such a baseline, we introduce new developments in statistical methods relating to critical slowing down, first applied in medicine and physics, which show promise for adaptation to flight test. Finally, the familiar resource constrained environment leads to a reliance on increased instrumentation that is challenging the limits of the current one-sensor, one-indicator threshold paradigm. Existing methods thus fail to accurately reflect the true complexity of a vehicle rich with interdependent interacting systems. We highlight these concepts in a brief summary of the 2001 Air Transat Flight 236 deadstick landing in the Azores. We then suggest control room and cockpit modifications to better display the information gleaned using these novel monitoring methods.

Javorsek, Dan↗

Enhancing Flight Test Safety with Real-Time Early Warning Techniques

Contemporary approaches to aerospace vehicle system monitoring rely heavily on thresholds that represent a compromise between providing warning early enough to avert a mishap while simultaneously minimizing false alarms. While this reliance on thresholds has been in place for decades and has permeated both cockpits and control rooms, we often find it insufficient when retrospectively analyzing data from an accident. To modernize and enhance flight test safety, we introduce new methods of monitoring for anomalous patterns of interaction rather than for thresholds exceedance. For systems with a well characterized baseline we show how the Inductive Monitoring System (IMS), utilized by NASA in the aftermath of the Columbia accident, might be implemented in real-time to provide earlier warning than currently employed techniques. For systems without such a baseline, we introduce new developments in statistical methods relating to critical slowing down, first applied in medicine and physics, which show promise for adaptation to flight test. Finally, the familiar resource constrained environment leads to a reliance on increased instrumentation that is challenging the limits of the current "one-sensor, one-indicator" threshold paradigm. Existing methods thus fail to accurately reflect the true complexity of a vehicle rich with interdependent interacting systems. We highlight these concepts in a brief summary of the 2001 Air Transat Flight 236 deadstick landing in the Azores. We then suggest control room and cockpit modifications to better display the information gleaned using these novel monitoring methods.

Javorsek, Daniel, II↗

An overview of the ORACLES (ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS) project: aerosol–cloud–radiation interactions in the southeast Atlantic basin

Southern Africa produces almost a third of the Earth’s biomass burning (BB) aerosol particles, yet the fate of these particles and their influence on regional and global climate is poorly understood. ORACLES (ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS) is a 5-year NASA EVS-2 (Earth Venture Suborbital-2) investigation with three intensive observation periods designed to study key atmospheric processes that determine the climate impacts of these aerosols. During the Southern Hemisphere winter and spring (June–October), aerosol particles reaching 3–5 km in altitude are transported westward over the southeast Atlantic, where they interact with one of the largest subtropical stratocumulus (Sc) cloud decks in the world. The representation of these interactions in climate models remains highly uncertain in part due to a scarcity of observational constraints on aerosol and cloud properties, as well as due to the parameterized treatment of physical processes. Three ORACLES deployments by the NASA P-3 aircraft in September 2016, August 2017, and October 2018 (totaling ~ 350 science flight hours), augmented by the deployment of the NASA ER-2 aircraft for remote sensing in September 2016 (totaling ~ 100 science flight hours), were intended to help fill this observational gap. ORACLES focuses on three fundamental science themes centered on the climate effects of African BB aerosols: (a) direct aerosol radiative effects, (b) effects of aerosol absorption on atmospheric circulation and clouds, and (c) aerosol–cloud microphysical interactions. This paper summarizes the ORACLES science objectives, describes the project implementation, provides an overview of the flights and measurements in each deployment, and highlights the integrative modeling efforts from cloud to global scales to address science objectives. Significant new findings on the vertical structure of BB aerosol physical and chemical properties, chemical aging, cloud condensation nuclei, rain and precipitation statistics, and aerosol indirect effects are emphasized, but their detailed descriptions are the subject of separate publications. The main purpose of this paper is to familiarize the broader scientific community with the ORACLES project and the dataset it produced.

Jens Redemann↗

SPHINX: An SEP Model Validation Infrastructure developed through Community Challenges and the SEP Scoreboards

Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events are interesting from a scientific perspective as they are the product of a broad set of physical processes from the corona out through the extent of the heliosphere, and provide insight into processes of particle acceleration and transport that are widely applicable in astrophysics. From the operations perspective, SEP events pose a radiation hazard for aviation, electronics in space, and human space exploration, in particular for missions outside of the Earth’s protective magnetosphere including to the Moon and Mars (Whitman et al 2022). For these reasons, SEP modelers have developed a rich and diverse set of models with a wide variety of aims. Some models probe the basic physics at the heart of particle acceleration and transport. Others produce fast statistical forecasts or employ disruptive new techniques like Machine Learning with the goal to assist end users in making operational decisions. To enable a consistent and quantitative understanding of SEP model performance, a generalized, automated validation infrastructure, called SPHINX, is being developed at NASA SRAG in close collaboration with NASA CCMC, NASA M2M, NOAA SWPC, and BIRA-IASB. This infrastructure has been built up through a multi-year community challenge. Starting in 2018 at the SHINE workshop, an effort was launched through SHINE, ISWAT, and ESWW to encourage quantitative, comprehensive, and consistent validation of SEP models. This effort has defined a set of challenge SEP events with the aim of generating quantitative comparisons between forecasts and observations and a set of challenge “non-events” to assess false alarms. In 2023, these challenge lists have been extended to statistically significant numbers with a prescribed set of rules for producing forecasts and supported through the dedicated SEPVAL working meetings. The participation of the research community has allowed the infrastructure to validate all the types of outputs being produced by SEP models. In parallel, the SPHINX code is being applied to real time forecasts submitted to the SEP Scoreboards, ensuring that the validation infrastructure can interpret forecasts produced in an operational scenario and provide metrics meaningful for operations. Upon completion, SPHINX and its interactive user interface, SPHINX-Web, will be made available for public use.

space weather↗

Characteristics of SiC neutron sensor spectrum unfolding process based on Bayesian inference

This paper deals with SiC detector signal interpretation in neutron radiation measurements in mixed neutron gamma radiation fields, which is called the detector inverse problem or the spectrum unfolding, and it aims in finding a representation of the primary radiation, based on the measured detector signals. In our novel methodology we resort to Bayesian inference approach. In the developed procedure the resultant spectra is unfolded form detector channels reading, where the estimated neutron fluence in a group structure is obtained with its statistical characteristic comprising of standard deviation and correlation matrix. In the paper we present results of unfolding process for case of D-T neutron source in neutron moderating environment. Discussions of statistical properties of obtained results are presented as well as of the physical meaning of obtained correlation matrix of estimated group fluence. The presented works has been carried out within the I-SMART project, which is part of the KIC InnoEnergy R and D program. (authors)

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Dynamic Rubies

Algorithmic art selected as a winner of the contest Pixel by Pixel: The Art of CHANCE, to be published in the April 2024 issue of CHANCE, the magazine of the American Statistical Association.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Exploratory calculation of 𝐾 L → 𝜇 + ⁢𝜇 − decay from lattice QCD at physical pion mass

We compute the complex, long-distance two-photon-exchange amplitude which contributes to the rare 𝐾 L → 𝜇 + ⁢𝜇 − decay from lattice QCD. We use a 24 3 × 64 physical-pion-mass gauge field ensemble at an inverse lattice spacing of 1.023 GeV and a QED ∞ -based formalism. Our implementation strategies for all five non-SU(3)-flavor-suppressed diagram topologies are given in detail. We achieve a 25% statistical precision on the dispersive part of this long-distance amplitude. This calculation is carried out with 2+1 quark flavors and therefore requires the addition of counterterms to compensate for the absence of the Glashow-Iliopoulos-Maiani mechanism. These counterterms are not included in the current calculation and will be the subject of a second paper. Although a direct comparison to experiment cannot yet be made because of those omitted counterterms, the present exploratory calculation allows one to identify principal sources of statistical uncertainty in this calculation. The precision of our results is limited by the reconstruction of the physical contribution of the 𝜂 intermediate state, for which various strategies are tested and compared.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

A no extensive statistical model for the nucleon structure function

We studied an application of nonextensive thermodynamics to describe the structure function of nucleon, in a model where the usual Fermi-Dirac and Bose-Einstein energy distribution were replaced by the equivalent functions of the q-statistical. The parameters of the model are given by an effective temperature T, the q parameter (from Tsallis statistics), and two chemical potentials given by the corresponding up (u) and down (d) quark normalization in the nucleon.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Relating microstructure, temperature, and chemistry to explosive ignition and shock sensitivity

An analysis is put forth that relates explosive properties including microstructure, temperature, and chemistry to explosive ignition and sensitivity. Unlike approaches that focus only on elucidating mesoscopic mechanisms important to ignition, the present analysis seeks a methodology directly applicable to continuum explosive burn models. Because the Scaled Uniform Reactive Front (SURF) burn model has a microstructural basis, it is chosen as the starting point of the present analysis. To build upon the SURF framework, a literal translation is performed of the high-level conceptual notions for which SURF is based, to concrete ignition–combustion parameters, a statistical description of the microstructure, and other thermo-chemical data acquired by non-shock experiments. The analysis requires a void volume fraction distribution acquired from ultra-small angle neutron scattering (USANS). The shock response of PBX 9502 is used to illustrate the theory. While the analysis requires calibration to a shock experiment (the pop plot, for example), the results are a self-consistent set of realistic physical quantities that contribute to the shock initiation process including, initial temperature, chemical kinetics, a statistical description of the microstructure, and the hot spot size, spacing, and temperature. The utility of having a mesoscale based theory is that once the critical hot spot temperature, as a function of shock pressure, is known for a given explosive and initial porosity distribution, the entire set of meso- and macro-scale results, including the pop plot can be calculated for any other porosity. Thus, one can understand changes in sensitivity at different densities (void size distributions), relying only on the assumption that the hot spot temperature curve would not differ significantly if the morphology of the hots spots were similar. Another important utility of the present analysis is to address the question of the role of initial temperature on the observed shock sensitivity of PBX 9502 and other explosives.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Theory of open quantum systems with bath of electrons and phonons and spins: Many-dissipaton density matrixes approach

This work establishes a strongly correlated system-and-bath dynamics theory, the many-dissipaton density operators formalism. It puts forward a quasi-particle picture for environmental influences. This picture unifies the physical descriptions and algebraic treatments on three distinct classes of quantum environments, electron bath, phonon bath, and two-level spin or exciton bath, as their participating in quantum dissipation processes. Dynamical variables for theoretical description are no longer just the reduced density matrix for system, but remarkably also those for quasi-particles of bath. The present theoretical formalism offers efficient and accurate means for the study of steady-state (nonequilibrium and equilibrium) and real-time dynamical properties of both systems and hybridizing environments. It further provides universal evaluations, exact in principle, on various correlation functions, including even those of environmental degrees of freedom in coupling with systems. Induced environmental dynamics could be reflected directly in experimentally measurable quantities, such as Fano resonances and quantum transport current shot noise statistics.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

A Two-length Scale Turbulence Model for Single-phase Multi-fluid Mixing

A two-length scale, second moment turbulence model (Reynolds averaged Navier-Stokes, RANS) is proposed to capture a wide variety of single-phase flows, spanning from incompressible flows with single fluids and mixtures of different density fluids (variable density flows) to flows over shock waves. The two-length scale model was developed to address an inconsistency present in the single-length scale models, e.g. the inability to match both variable density homogeneous Rayleigh-Taylor turbulence and Rayleigh-Taylor induced turbulence, as well as the inability to match both homogeneous shear and free shear flows. The two-length scale model focuses on separating the decay and transport length scales, as the two physical processes are generally different in inhomogeneous turbulence. This allows reasonable comparisons with statistics and spreading rates over such a wide range of turbulent flows using a common set of model coefficients. The specific canonical flows considered for calibrating the model include homogeneous shear, single-phase incompressible shear driven turbulence, variable density homogeneous Rayleigh-Taylor turbulence, Rayleigh-Taylor induced turbulence, and shocked isotropic turbulence. The second moment model shows to compare reasonably well with direct numerical simulations (DNS), experiments, and theory in most cases. The model was then applied to variable density shear layer and shock tube data and shows to be in reasonable agreement with DNS and experiments. Additionally, the importance of using DNS to calibrate and assess RANS type turbulence models is highlighted.

04 OIL SHALES AND TAR SANDS↗

Simulating the SuperCDMS Dark Matter Detector Response and Readout

Dark matter is one of the remaining great mysteries of modern physics. Cosmological and astrophysical evidence hints strongly at a new particle, or set of particles, unknown to the Standard Model, comprising some 80% of all of the matter in the universe. SuperCDMS is one of the world-leading direct-detection experiments attempting to directly measure interactions between dark and regular matter. SuperCDMS uses solid state crystalline detectors in a nearly-zero background environment to attempt to measure the particle properties of dark matter. The detectors themselves, however, are quite complex; and a very detailed understanding of the microscopic physics is helpful in analyzing the very rare events that occur within them. Furthermore, better understanding and modeling of the detectors can aid in the design and optimization of future iterations of the experiment. The SuperCDMS detectors are well-understood in ideal cases. However, an accurate understanding of the detector response to outlier events or under non-ideal conditions is important for a low-statistics experiment. This work describes the design and implementation of a low temperature condensed matter physics simulation library built on top of the popular Geant4 particle tracking framework. The library, named \Geant4 Condensed Matter Physics" or G4CMP, introduces several solid state concepts to the Geant4 framework such as crystal lattices, phonon quasiparticles, non-scalar elective masses, and implements several physics processes relevant to cryogenic temperature crystals. In addition to the physics library, which is intended for general use, this work also describes a full Monte Carlo simulation package for the SuperCDMS iZIP detectors which utilizes G4CMP at its core and also fully simulates the detector readout sensors. The document will begin with the canonical motivations for the cold dark matter hypothesis, followed by a description of the SuperCDMS experiment. It will then describe the microscopic physics inside of the SuperCDMS detectors, as well as details on their implementation in G4CMP. The full detector simulation with corresponding sensor readout will follow, along with plans for future work; including both scientific studies and improvements, as well as computational improvements and added efficiencies.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Numerically exact full counting statistics of the energy current in the Kondo regime

In this study, we use the inchworm quantum Monte Carlo method to investigate the full counting statistics of particle and energy currents in a strongly correlated quantum dot. Our method is used to extract the heat fluctuations and entropy production of a quantum thermoelectric device, as well as cumulants of the particle and energy currents. The energy-particle current cross correlations reveal information on the preparation of the system and the interplay of thermal and electric currents. Finally, we demonstrate the signature of a crossover from Coulomb blockade to Kondo physics in the energy current fluctuations, and show how the conventional master equation approach to full counting statistics systematically fails to capture this crossover.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Binary Stars in Upper Scorpius

To address the statistics of binary stars in the 8 Myr old Upper Scorpius (USco) star formation region, we conducted a speckle interferometric survey of 614 association members more massive than 0.4 M{sub ⊙} (spectral types earlier than M3V) based on the list of Luhman et al. (2018). We resolved 187 pairs, 55 of which are new discoveries. Also using the published data and the Gaia DR2, a catalog of 250 physical binaries was produced. We carefully estimated detection limits for each target and studied binary statistics in the separation range from 0.″06 to 20″ (9–2800 au), as well as clustering at larger separations. The frequency of companions with mass ratios q > 0.3 in this separation range is 0.33 ± 0.04 and 0.35 ± 0.04 for early M- and solar-type stars, respectively, larger by 1.62 ± 0.22 and 1.39 ± 0.18 times compared to field stars of similar masses. The excess is produced mostly by pairs closer than 100 au. At separations from 100 to 10{sup 4} au, the separation distribution and companion fraction resemble those of solar-type stars in the field. However, unlike in the field, we see a relative deficit of equal-mass binaries at separations of ∼500 au, compared to smaller and larger separations. The distribution of q depends on the separation, with a preference of larger q and a larger fraction of twins with q > 0.95 at smaller separations. The binary population of USco differs from binaries in the field in several ways and suggests that binary statistics is not universal.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Modified frequentist determination of confidence intervals for poisson distribution

We propose modified frequentist definition for the determination of confidence intervals for the case of Poisson statistics. Namely, we require that 1−β{sup ′}⩾∑{sub n=0}{sup n=n{sub o}{sub b}{sub s}+k}P(n|λ)⩾α{sup ′}. We show that this definition is equivalent to the Bayesian method with prior π(λ) ∼ λ{sup k}. We also propose modified frequentist definition for the case of nonzero background.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗