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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The System Modeling and Analysis of Resiliency in STEReO (SMARt-STEReO)

NASA's Scalable Traffic Management for Emergency Response Operations (STEReO) project aims to leverage Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) and UAS Traffic Management (UTM) to improve asset coordination and overall emergency response. One application of STEReO is wildfire response, which is the focus of this research. In order to implement the operations described in the STEReO project, these additions must have tangible benefits and proven safety. To this end, the System Modeling and Analysis of Resiliency in STEReO (SMARt-STEReO) project constructs a simulation model, developed through the Python modeling and resiliency analysis package fmdtools. The model describes wildfire response operations, including current operational concepts and emerging concepts utilizing UAS as described in STEReO. While previous simulation models focus primarily on fire propagation with some models including emergency response intervention, SMART-STEReO evaluates the system performance and resilience benefits gained by the addition of UAS and UTM. Due to the novelty and complexity of the model, initial model verification and validation efforts are conducted and a detailed description of the model is provided. Preliminary results from experimental analysis on the SMARt-STEReO model indicate that when compared to current operations, the addition of UAS in wildfire operations results in improved response efforts, in terms of fewer acres burned, as well as improved system resilience in response to a given fault.

Sequoia Andrade↗
DOE OSTI2025

An intercomparison of wall fluxes in a turbulent thermal convection chamber: Direct numerical simulations and wall-modeled large-eddy simulations enhanced by machine learning

Thermal convection in a closed chamber is driven by a warm bottom, a cold top, and side walls at various temperatures. Although wall fluxes are the source of convection energy, accurately modeling these fluxes (i.e., the wall model) is challenging. In large-eddy simulations (LESs), many wall models are traditionally derived from the canonical boundary layer, which may be unsuitable for thermal convection bounded by both horizontal and vertical walls. This study conducts a model intercomparison of dry convection in a cubic-meter chamber using three direct numerical simulations (DNSs) and four LESs with different wall models. The LESs employ traditional wall models, a new wall model employing physics-aware neural networks, and a refined grid near the walls. The experiment involves four cases with varying sidewall temperatures. Our results show that LESs capture the main flow features and the trends of mean fluxes. The physics-aware neural networks and refined wall grids can improve the temporally averaged local fluxes when the large-scale circulation has a preferred direction. Even without the local improvement of wall fluxes, the LES flow quantities (temperature and velocities) can still largely match those in DNSs, provided the mean flux largely matches the DNSs. Additionally, DNSs reveal that a variation in corner treatments has minimal impacts on the flow quantities away from corners. Finally, LESs underestimate the mean fluxes of the entire wall due to their inability to resolve corner regions, but their mean flux away from the corner can better match DNS.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Emulating the Lyman-Alpha forest 1D power spectrum from cosmological simulations: new models and constraints from the eBOSS measurement

We present the Lyssa suite of high-resolution cosmological simulations of the Lyman-α forest designed for cosmological analyses. These 18 simulations have been run using the Nyx code with 40963 hydrodynamical cells in a 120 Mpc (∼ 81 Mpc/h) comoving box and individually provide sub-percent level convergence of the Lyman-α forest 1d flux power spectrum. We build a Gaussian process emulator for the Lyssa simulations in the lym1d likelihood framework to interpolate the power spectrum at arbitrary parameter values. We validate this emulator based on leave-one-out tests and based on the parameter constraints for simulations outside of the training set. We also perform comparisons with a previous emulator, showing a percent level accuracy and a good recovery of the expected cosmological parameters. Using this emulator we derive constraints on the linear matter power spectrum amplitude and slope parameters A Lyα and n Lyα . While the best-fit Planck ΛCDM model has A Lyα = 8.79 and n Lyα = -2.363, from DR14 eBOSS data we find that A Lyα < 7.6 (95% CI) and n Lyα = -2.369 ± 0.008. The low value of A Lyα , in tension with Planck, is driven by the correlation of this parameter with the mean transmission of the Lyman-α forest. This tension disappears when imposing a well-motivated external prior on this mean transmission, in which case we find A Lyα = 9.8 ± 1.1 in accordance with Planck.

Walther, Michael↗
NASA NTRS1988

The use of variograms in remote sensing. I - Scene models and simulated images. II - Real digital images

Theoretical and empirical studies of variograms are presented. The sensitivity of variograms is studied through varyig parameters of scene models both in calculating explicit variograms and in simulating images. It is found that the heights of variograms are related to the proportion of an area covered by objects. It is shown that the range of influence of a variogram is related to the size of the objects in the scene and that the shape of the variogram becomes more rounded as the variance in the size distribution of objects increases. In the second part, empirically calculated variograms from real digital images are used to demonstrate these theoretical findings. These calculated variograms also show the periodicity in ground scenes and reveal anisotropy.

Woodcock, Curtis E.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Resin Film Infusion (RFI) Process Modeling for Large Transport Aircraft Wing Structures

This investigation completed the verification of a three-dimensional resin transfer molding/resin film infusion (RTM/RFI) process simulation model. The model incorporates resin flow through an anisotropic carbon fiber preform, cure kinetics of the resin, and heat transfer within the preform/tool assembly. The computer model can predict the flow front location, resin pressure distribution, and thermal profiles in the modeled part. The formulation for the flow model is given using the finite element/control volume (FE/CV) technique based on Darcy's Law of creeping flow through a porous media. The FE/CV technique is a numerically efficient method for finding the flow front location and the fluid pressure. The heat transfer model is based on the three-dimensional, transient heat conduction equation, including heat generation. Boundary conditions include specified temperature and convection. The code was designed with a modular approach so the flow and/or the thermal module may be turned on or off as desired. Both models are solved sequentially in a quasi-steady state fashion. A mesh refinement study was completed on a one-element thick model to determine the recommended size of elements that would result in a converged model for a typical RFI analysis. Guidelines are established for checking the convergence of a model, and the recommended element sizes are listed. Several experiments were conducted and computer simulations of the experiments were run to verify the simulation model. Isothermal, non-reacting flow in a T-stiffened section was simulated to verify the flow module. Predicted infiltration times were within 12-20% of measured times. The predicted pressures were approximately 50% of the measured pressures. A study was performed to attempt to explain the difference in pressures. Non-isothermal experiments with a reactive resin were modeled to verify the thermal module and the resin model. Two panels were manufactured using the RFI process. One was a stepped panel and the other was a panel with two 'T' stiffeners. The difference between the predicted infiltration times and the experimental times was 4% to 23%.

Loos, Alfred C.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Emulator-Based Bayesian Calibration of the CISNET Colorectal Cancer Models

Purpose To calibrate Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET)'s SimCRC, MISCAN-Colon, and CRC-SPIN simulation models of the natural history colorectal cancer (CRC) with an emulator-based Bayesian algorithm and internally validate the model-predicted outcomes to calibration targets.Methods We used Latin hypercube sampling to sample up to 50,000 parameter sets for each CISNET-CRC model and generated the corresponding outputs. We trained multilayer perceptron artificial neural networks (ANNs) as emulators using the input and output samples for each CISNET-CRC model. We selected ANN structures with corresponding hyperparameters (i.e., number of hidden layers, nodes, activation functions, epochs, and optimizer) that minimize the predicted mean square error on the validation sample. We implemented the ANN emulators in a probabilistic programming language and calibrated the input parameters with Hamiltonian Monte Carlo-based algorithms to obtain the joint posterior distributions of the CISNET-CRC models' parameters. We internally validated each calibrated emulator by comparing the model-predicted posterior outputs against the calibration targets.Results The optimal ANN for SimCRC had 4 hidden layers and 360 hidden nodes, MISCAN-Colon had 4 hidden layers and 114 hidden nodes, and CRC-SPIN had 1 hidden layer and 140 hidden nodes. The total time for training and calibrating the emulators was 7.3, 4.0, and 0.66 h for SimCRC, MISCAN-Colon, and CRC-SPIN, respectively. The mean of the model-predicted outputs fell within the 95% confidence intervals of the calibration targets in 98 of 110 for SimCRC, 65 of 93 for MISCAN, and 31 of 41 targets for CRC-SPIN.Conclusions Using ANN emulators is a practical solution to reduce the computational burden and complexity for Bayesian calibration of individual-level simulation models used for policy analysis, such as the CISNET CRC models. In this work, we present a step-by-step guide to constructing emulators for calibrating 3 realistic CRC individual-level models using a Bayesian approach.

artificial neural networks↗
DOE OSTI2022

On multidomain multiscale modeling and simulation of a novel partial pressure and temperature swing adsorptive reactor ($\mathrm{PPTSAR}$) with application to the water gas shift reaction

Here in this work, a dynamic, multidomain, multiscale model of a novel Partial Pressure and Temperature Swing Adsorptive Reactor (PPTSAR) Process is developed and simulated for a Water Gas Shift Reaction (WGSR) application. The proposed model couples the reactor wall, catalyst/adsorbent pellet, and fluid mixture domains at their respective scales to comprehensively model mass, momentum, and energy transport phenomena occurring within each domain. The resulting model elucidates the PPTSAR’s start-up, transient, and long-term, periodic, dynamic behavior, during both adsorption/reaction and desorption operating modes. In the WGSR application considered, the use of two PPTSARs is shown to allow continuous operation that delivers CO conversion greater than 95% with simultaneous complete CO 2 capture.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS1978

Monthly mean simulation experiments with a course-mesh global atmospheric model

Substitution of observed monthly mean sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) as lower boundary conditions, in place of climatological SSTs, failed to improve the model simulations. While the impact of SST anomalies on the model output is greater at sea level than at upper levels the impact on the monthly mean simulations is not beneficial at any level. Shifts of one and two days in initialization time produced small, but non-trivial, changes in the model-generated monthly mean synoptic fields. No improvements in the mean simulations resulted from the use of either time-averaged initial data or re-initialization with time-averaged early model output. The noise level of the model, as determined from a multiple initial state perturbation experiment, was found to be generally low, but with a noisier response to initial state errors in high latitudes than the tropics.

Spar, J.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Simulation and Modeling of Hypersonic Turbulent Boundary Layers Subject to Favorable Pressure Gradients due to Streamline Curvature

Direct numerical simulations (DNS) of favorable-pressure-gradient turbulent boundary layers are presented for a nominal freestream Mach number of 5, with the objective of assessing the limitations of the currently available Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) models.The wall geometry and flow conditions of the DNS are representative of the experimental data for a Mach 4.9 turbulent boundary layer that was tested on a two-dimensional planar convexwall model in the high-speed blow-down wind tunnel located at the National Aerothermochemistry Laboratory at Texas A&M University. The favorable pressure gradient is induced bythe streamwise surface curvature. The DNS results will be compared with experimental measurements and RANS computations for the same flow conditions and wall geometry. The DNS datasets will also be analyzed to provide an improved physical understanding of hypersonic boundary-layer turbulence subject to mechanical nonequilibrium, including the validity of Morkovin’s hypothesis and the various available compressibility transformations, as well as to obtain turbulence statistics that are relevant to RANS modeling, including the distribution ofeddy viscosity, the budgets of turbulent kinetic energy and Reynolds stresses, and the velocity-temperature correlations. The RANS predictions will be obtained by using both the commonly used one- and two-equation models that assume a constant turbulent Prandtl number and an algebraic, variable Prandtl number model for the turbulent energy flux.

turbulent boundary layers↗
NASA NTRS2014

Sources, Sinks, and Transatlantic Transport of North African Dust Aerosol: A Multimodel Analysis and Comparison With Remote Sensing Data

This study evaluates model-simulated dust aerosols over North Africa and the North Atlantic from five global models that participated in the Aerosol Comparison between Observations and Models phase II model experiments. The model results are compared with satellite aerosol optical depth (AOD) data from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), Multiangle Imaging Spectroradiometer (MISR), and Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor, dust optical depth (DOD) derived from MODIS and MISR, AOD and coarse-mode AOD (as a proxy of DOD) from ground-based Aerosol Robotic Network Sun photometer measurements, and dust vertical distributions/centroid height from Cloud Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization and Atmospheric Infrared Sounder satellite AOD retrievals. We examine the following quantities of AOD and DOD: (1) the magnitudes over land and over ocean in our study domain, (2) the longitudinal gradient from the dust source region over North Africa to the western North Atlantic, (3) seasonal variations at different locations, and (4) the dust vertical profile shape and the AOD centroid height (altitude above or below which half of the AOD is located). The different satellite data show consistent features in most of these aspects; however, the models display large diversity in all of them, with significant differences among the models and between models and observations. By examining dust emission, removal, and mass extinction efficiency in the five models, we also find remarkable differences among the models that all contribute to the discrepancies of model-simulated dust amount and distribution. This study highlights the challenges in simulating the dust physical and optical processes, even in the best known dust environment, and stresses the need for observable quantities to constrain the model processes.

Africa↗
NASA NTRS1994

Ice-atmosphere interactions in the central Arctic: Remotely-sensed and simulated ice concentration and motion

The response of the Beaufort Sea ice pack to the passage of strong low pressure systems is studied using SAR (synthetic aperture radar), AVHRR (advanced very high resolution radiometer), and SSM/I (special sensor microwave/imager) data combined with model simulations. The SAR, AVHRR, and modeled concentrations concur generally in showing a 1 to 5 percent decrease in ice fraction during the passage of the lows. SSM/I derived concentrations appear to underestimate overall concentration and overestimate the opening of the pack relative to the other data sets. Ice motion derived from SAR and AVHRR and model simulations using two ice rheologies agree reasonably well in direction and magnitude, although the cavitating fluid approximation tends to overestimate ice motion compared to a viscous plastic rheology. Ice motions from SAR, AVHRR, and buoy observations can be merged to yield uniform grids particularly well suited to synoptic scale studies and model validation.

Maslanik, J. A.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Simulation and modeling of homogeneous, compressed turbulence

Low Reynolds number homogeneous turbulence undergoing low Mach number isotropic and one-dimensional compression was simulated by numerically solving the Navier-Stokes equations. The numerical simulations were performed on a CYBER 205 computer using a 64 x 64 x 64 mesh. A spectral method was used for spatial differencing and the second-order Runge-Kutta method for time advancement. A variety of statistical information was extracted from the computed flow fields. These include three-dimensional energy and dissipation spectra, two-point velocity correlations, one-dimensional energy spectra, turbulent kinetic energy and its dissipation rate, integral length scales, Taylor microscales, and Kolmogorov length scale. Results from the simulated flow fields were used to test one-point closure, two-equation models. A new one-point-closure, three-equation turbulence model which accounts for the effect of compression is proposed. The new model accurately calculates four types of flows (isotropic decay, isotropic compression, one-dimensional compression, and axisymmetric expansion flows) for a wide range of strain rates.

Wu, C. T.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Simulation and Modeling of Hypersonic Turbulent Boundary Layers Subject to Adverse Pressure Gradients due to Concave Streamline Curvature

Direct numerical simulations (DNS) of adverse-pressure-gradient turbulent boundary layers over a planar concave wall are presented for a nominal freestream Mach number of 5, with the objective of assessing the limitations of the currently available Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) models. The wall geometry and flow conditions of the DNS are representative of the experimental data for a Mach 4.9 turbulent boundary layer that was tested on a two-dimensional planar concave wall model in the high-speed blow-down wind tunnel located at the National Aerothermochemistry Laboratory at Texas A&M University (TAMU). The DNS was validated against the experimental results of TAMU for the same flow conditions and wall geometry. An analysis of the DNS datasets was also conducted to provide an assessment of the validity of Morkovin’s hypothesis and the strong Reynolds analog for turbulence subject to mechanical nonequilibrium. In addition to the DNS results, RANS predictions are obtained by using the Baldwin-Lomax (BL), Spalart-Allmaras (SA), and the k - w SST turbulence models. The comparisons between RANS and DNS showed little impact of an adverse pressure gradient on the accuracy of these models, at least up to an incompressible Clauser pressure gradient parameter of beta(sub inc) 1.22. While the Boussinesq assumption provided reasonable predictions for the Reynolds shear stress, it failed to adequately predict the normal components of the Reynolds stress.

turbulent boundary layers↗
DOE OSTI2021

A coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical model for simulating leakoff-dominated hydraulic fracturing with application to geologic carbon storage

A potential risk of injecting CO2 into storage reservoirs with marginal permeability (≲ 10 mD (1 mD = 10 –15 m 2 )) is that commercial injection rates could induce fracturing of the reservoir and/or the caprock. Such fracturing is essentially fluid-driven fracturing in the leakoff-dominated regime. Recent studies suggested that fracturing, if contained within the lower portion of the caprock complex, could substantially improve the injectivity without compromising the overall seal integrity. Modeling this phenomenon entails complex coupled interactions among the fluids, the fracture, the reservoir, and the caprock. Here, we develop a simple method to capture all these interplays in high fidelity by sequentially coupling a hydraulic fracturing module with a coupled thermal-hydrological-mechanical (THM) model for nonisothermal multiphase flow. The model was made numerically tractable by taking advantage of self-stabilizing features of leakoff-dominated fracturing. The model is validated against the PKN solution in the leakoff-dominated regime. Moreover, we employ the model to study thermo-poromechanical responses of a fluid-driven fracture in a field-scale carbon storage reservoir that is loosely based on the In Salah project's Krechba reservoir. The model reveals complex yet intriguing behaviors of the reservoir-caprock-fluid system with fracturing induced by cold CO 2 injection. We also study the effects of the in situ stress contrast between the reservoir and caprock and thermal contraction on the vertical containment of the fracture. The proposed model proves effective in simulating practical problems on length and time scales relevant to geological carbon storage.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1991

Characterization of and sensor-model verification and control of the properties of PMR-13 during processing

This study presents an in situ sensor and a process-simulation model developed for monitoring and controlling the cure process of PMR-15. The time-temperature dependence of the buildup in the molecular network structure, extent of reaction, viscosity, flow, and consolidation during the cure of PMR-15 are discussed. The relationship of the time-temperature cycle used during imidization to the length of the endcapped chains formed is examined. The relationship of the time-temperature cure-processing cycle to the reaction kinetics, viscosity, flow, and consolidation during crosslinking is analyzed using frequency-dependent electromagnetic sensors and the Loos processing model. Application of the FDEMS sensing technique and the process-simulation model for quality assurance processing and automated on-line control of cure is discussed.

Kranbuehl, D.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Observations Indicate That Clouds Amplify Mechanisms of Southern Ocean Heat Uptake

Abstract The Southern Ocean has absorbed most of the excess heat associated with anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Since Southern Ocean observations are sparse in certain regions and seasons, much of our knowledge of ocean heat uptake is based on climate model simulations. However, climate models still inadequately represent some properties of Southern Ocean clouds, and they have not identified the mechanisms by which clouds may affect Southern Ocean heat uptake (SOHU). Here, we use the ERA5 and JRA‐55 reanalyses to assess the influence of clouds and other atmospheric processes on SOHU from 1979 to 2020. We find that years with the highest SOHU between 45° and 65°S are dominated by ocean heat uptake anomalies during winter and spring, but not during summer or fall. Winter and spring cloud cover are up to 7% higher when SOHU is up to 5.5 W/m 2 higher than the climatological seasonal mean, with the largest increases in the South Pacific Ocean. Clouds also contain more liquid water. These changes in cloud properties increase downwelling longwave radiation, amplifying ocean heat uptake. Cloud changes are also concomitant with a more stable lower atmosphere, which suppresses turbulent heat fluxes out of the surface. Overall, we find that SOHU is likely not mediated by enhanced surface shortwave absorption over the observational time period. A better understanding of how atmospheric processes impact ocean heat uptake may help improve our understanding of ocean heat uptake mechanisms in the current generation of climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Increasing Hurricane Intensification Rate Near the US Atlantic Coast

Hurricanes often cause severe damage and loss of life, and storms that intensify close to the coast pose a particularly serious threat. While changes in hurricane intensification and environment have been examined at basin scales previously, near-coastal changes have not been adequately explored. In this study, we address this using a suite of observations and climate model simulations. Over the 40-year period of 1979–2018, the mean 24-hr hurricane intensification rate increased by ~1.2 kt 6-hr –1 near the US Atlantic coast. However, a significant increase in intensification did not occur near the Gulf coast over the same period. The enhanced hurricane intensification along the Atlantic coast is consistent with an increasingly favorable dynamic and thermodynamic environment there, which is well simulated by climate models over the historical period. Further, multi-model projections suggest a continued enhancement of the storm environment and hurricane intensification near the Atlantic coast in the future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗