SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Sensitivity analysis”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,315 records · Page 73

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2016

On the applicability of surrogate-based Markov chain Monte Carlo-Bayesian inversion to the Community Land Model: Case studies at flux tower sites: SURROGATE-BASED MCMC FOR CLM

The Community Land Model (CLM) has been widely used in climate and Earth system modeling. Accurate estimation of model parameters is needed for reliable model simulations and predictions under current and future conditions, respectively. In our previous work, a subset of hydrological parameters has been identified to have significant impact on surface energy fluxes at selected flux tower sites based on parameter screening and sensitivity analysis, which indicate that the parameters could potentially be estimated from surface flux observations at the towers. To date, such estimates do not exist. In this paper, we assess the feasibility of applying a Bayesian model calibration technique to estimate CLM parameters at selected flux tower sites under various site conditions. The parameters are estimated as a joint probability density function (PDF) that provides estimates of uncertainty of the parameters being inverted, conditional on climatologically-average latent heat fluxes derived from observations. We find that the simulated mean latent heat fluxes from CLM using the calibrated parameters are generally improved at all sites when compared to those obtained with CLM simulations using default parameter sets. Further, our calibration method also results in credibility bounds around the simulated mean fluxes which bracket the measured data. The modes (or maximum a posteriori values) and 95% credibility intervals of the site-specific posterior PDFs are tabulated as suggested parameter values for each site. Analysis of relationships between the posterior PDFs and site conditions suggests that the parameter values are likely correlated with the plant functional type, which needs to be confirmed in future studies by extending the approach to more sites.

Huang, Maoyi↗

DOE OSTI2019

Neutronic Design and Analysis of the Holos-Quad Concept

HolosGen, LLC is proposing a highly innovative micro-reactor concept targeting both civilian and military applications. It consists of an advanced helium-cooled gas reactor using a turbojet-type turbine and compressor to achieve a highly condensed reactor that fits into a commercial ISO container. The Holos-Quad concept being considered for civilian applications will generate 22MWt, using four Subcritical Power Modules (SPMs) that fit into one 40-foot ISO container. It is a high-temperature gas-cooled reactor concept using TRISO fuel distributed in graphite hexagonal blocks, cooled with helium gas at 7MPa and a high outlet temperature. In FY2019, HolosGen, LLC received an ARPA-E MEITNER grant to team up with the Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) design team to demonstrate the feasibility of the Holos-Quad concept in terms of neutronics. In particular, the evaluation study of the Holos design features and alternative options for reactivity control was considered. Through these tasks, the ANL design team has been working on demonstrating the feasibility of the Holos-Quad concept in terms of neutronics to help advance the core design of the Holos-Quad. A rigorous design approach was employed for the Holos-Quad in order to ensure that the input space is fully investigated, and that the best solutions are considered. The first step of this approach consisted of properly defining the Holos-Quad design problem by identifying the competitive design objectives: its economic performance is maximized with longer lifetime and its transportability to remote locations is maximized with reduced weight. The design problem also required to identify the operational constraints (in terms of thermal hydraulics, reactivity feedback and shutdown margins) and the input parameters that could be varied. In the second step, a sensitivity analysis was performed to enable preliminary investigation of the input space to identify the correlations among input and output variables. It allowed, for instance, to find input parameters that have relatively poor impact on the core performance and that could be removed from the optimization problem to accelerate its convergence. This sensitivity analysis showed that the design problem defined is highly constrained since only 117 solutions out of 1,000 simulated cores met all the design constraints. The design optimization was performed in the third step employing a genetic algorithm to effectively explore this highly constrained input space and find global optimal solutions. More than 2,500 cores were fully evaluated to converge to a Pareto Frontier of optimum solutions providing best compromise between the life-time target and the total core weight, as shown in Figure 1. The main benefit of this approach was to reduce the human effort and to be able to automatically re-run the optimization problem when changing the design problem. The multi-objective optimization identified various core solutions that would be optimum solutions for different types of applications.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2017

Surrogate Models for TREAT Transient Calculations

The Transient Reactor Test Facility (TREAT) at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) is currently preparing for resumption of operation after more than 20 years in a long-term standby state. In parallel with preparation for operations and a new transient testing program, the DOE-NE Advanced Modeling and Simulation program (NEAMS) has been supporting the development of three-dimensional transient multi-physics modeling capabilities within the reactor physics application MAMMOTH [1]. Recently, the MAMMOTH reactor physics team has begun development of uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for the TREAT core. This research will be used to support the analysis of reactor operation and experiment planning. Traditional approaches, i.e., Monte Carlo simulations, for such tasks require a large number of model evaluations under both steady state and transient conditions. However, exhaustive sets of sampling runs are simply not practical here since evaluations of each model can take a substantial amount of time. A solution to this problem is to build a surrogate model employing a smaller number of model evaluations. The surrogate model is designed to provide an accurate and fast approximation to the detailed TREAT model. In this manner, the surrogate model can be used in place of the TREAT transient model for uncertainty and sensitivity analysis at a fraction of the computational cost. The high dimensional model representation (HDMR) [2] method is employed here for approximating the responses of interest in terms of functions of lower dimensions. This method has been implemented in RAVEN [3] and all TREAT transient calculations are performed using the multiphysics code MAMMOTH. In addition, a code interface has also been developed in order to couple RAVEN with MAMMOTH. The surrogate model is then tested and compared for the MAMMOTH model of the TREAT startup testing program Transient Test #15 core [4], and its accuracy is measured by its ability to estimate the mean, coefficient of variance, skewness, excess kurtosis and probability density function of the outputs of Transient Test #15 model, as well as root mean square error metric.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Dynamics of Fungal and Bacterial Biomass Carbon in Natural Ecosystems: Site-level Applications of the CLM-Microbe Model

Explicitly representing microbial processes has been recognized as a key improvement to Earth system models for the realistic projections of soil carbon (C) and climate dynamics. The CLM-Microbe model builds upon the CLM4.5 and explicitly represents two major soil microbial groups, fungi and bacteria. Based on the compiled time-series data of fungal (FBC) and bacterial (BBC) biomass C from nine biomes, we parameterized and validated the CLM-Microbe model, and further conducted sensitivity analysis and uncertainty analysis for simulating C cycling. The model performance was evaluated with mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), and coefficient of determination (R2) for relative change in FBC and BBC. The CLM-Microbe model is able to reasonably capture the seasonal dynamics of FBC and BBC across biomes, particularly for tropical/subtropical forest, temperate broadleaf forest, and grassland, with MAE < 0.49 for FBC and <0.36 for BBC and RMSE <0.52 FBC and <0.39 for BBC, while R2 values are relatively smaller in some biomes (e.g., shrub) due to small sample sizes. We found good consistencies between simulated and observed FBC (R 2 =0.70, P<0.001) and BBC (R 2 =0.26, P<0.05) on average across biomes, but the model is not able to fully capture the large variation in observed FBC and BBC. Sensitivity analysis shows the most critical parameters are turnover rate, carbon-to-nitrogen ratio of fungi and bacteria, and microbial assimilation efficiency. This study confirms that the explicit representation of soil microbial mechanisms enhances model performance in simulating C variables such as heterotrophic respiration and soil organic C density. The further application of the CLM-Microbe model would deepen our understanding of microbial contributions to the global C cycle.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2016

Uncertainty quantification for generalized Langevin dynamics

Here, we present efficient finite difference estimators for goal-oriented sensitivity indices with applications to the generalized Langevin equation (GLE). In particular, we apply these estimators to analyze an extended variable formulation of the GLE where other well known sensitivity analysis techniques such as the likelihood ratio method are not applicable to key parameters of interest. These easily implemented estimators are formed by coupling the nominal and perturbed dynamics appearing in the finite difference through a common driving noise or common random path. After developing a general framework for variance reduction via coupling, we demonstrate the optimality of the common random path coupling in the sense that it produces a minimal variance surrogate for the difference estimator relative to sampling dynamics driven by independent paths. In order to build intuition for the common random path coupling, we evaluate the efficiency of the proposed estimators for a comprehensive set of examples of interest in particle dynamics. These reduced variance difference estimators are also a useful tool for performing global sensitivity analysis and for investigating non-local perturbations of parameters, such as increasing the number of Prony modes active in an extended variable GLE.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Integrated Crewed Mars Mission Analysis, Part II: The Trajectory Strikes Back

Crewed missions to Mars present a challenging problem involving strong interactions between a variety of spacecraft systems. Design and architecture decisions made by one system can have powerful implications for another. Siloed subsystem development and optimization efforts are unlikely to generate optimal results for the integrated system and may lead to counterproductive investments at the mission and system level. Mismatched assumptions between different subsystems can also negatively impact the final result. Integrated systems analysis, trade studies, and sensitivity analysis are a critical element of successful Mars mission design. Previous work examined the linkages between Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) loop closure, food water content, spares Probability of Sufficiency (POS), and other factors by performing an integrated mass and cost assessment of a variety of Mars habitat and transportation system designs. This paper expands upon that work by evaluating the impact of mission duration, trajectory, and propulsion technology alongside key habitat variables. Transportation system and trajectory design decisions have enormous impacts on overall system mass, and the impacts of those decisions are themselves sensitive to the mass of the habitat that is being transported. This paper examines a variety of mission cases and evaluates total departure mass for each case. An estimate of relative costs for specific cases is also provided. The results are discussed, with an emphasis on the sensitivity of mass, cost, and other figures of merit to key parameters. Interactions and dependencies between various decisions, particularly those that relate to technology investments, are also highlighted. Overall, the various elements, systems, and subsystems required to support human spaceflight should not be optimized and evaluated in isolation, but instead should be analyzed as part of an integrated system. This paper demonstrates how integrated analysis can improve system understanding and lead to more optimal and effective crewed exploration systems.

Human Spaceflight↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Integrated Crewed Mars Mission Analysis, Part II: The Trajectory Strikes Back

Human Spaceflight↗

DOE OSTI2016

DESIGN CHARACTERISTICS OF THE IDAHO NATIONAL LABORATORY HIGH-TEMPERATURE GAS-COOLED TEST REACTOR

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis is an indispensable element of any substantial attempt in reactor simulation validation. The quantification of uncertainties in nuclear engineering has grown more important and the IAEA Coordinated Research Program (CRP) on High-Temperature Gas Cooled Reactor (HTGR) initiated in 2012 aims to investigate the various uncertainty quantification methodologies for this type of reactors. The first phase of the CRP is dedicated to the estimation of cell and lattice model uncertainties due to the neutron cross sections co-variances. Phase II is oriented towards the investigation of propagated uncertainties from the lattice to the coupled neutronics/thermal hydraulics core calculations. Nominal results for the prismatic single block (Ex.I-2a) and super cell models (Ex.I-2c) have been obtained using the SCALE 6.1.3 two-dimensional lattice code NEWT coupled to the TRITON sequence for cross section generation. In this work, the TRITON/NEWT-flux-weighted cross sections obtained for Ex.I-2a and various models of Ex.I-2c is utilized to perform a sensitivity analysis of the MHTGR-350 core power densities and eigenvalues. The core solutions are obtained with the INL coupled code PHISICS/RELAP5-3D, utilizing a fixed-temperature feedback for Ex. II-1a.. It is observed that the core power density does not vary significantly in shape, but the magnitude of these variations increases as the moderator-to-fuel ratio increases in the super cell lattice models.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

NASA NTRS2008

Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analyses of a Two-Parameter Impedance Prediction Model

This paper presents comparisons of predicted impedance uncertainty limits derived from Monte-Carlo-type simulations with a Two-Parameter (TP) impedance prediction model and measured impedance uncertainty limits based on multiple tests acquired in NASA Langley test rigs. These predicted and measured impedance uncertainty limits are used to evaluate the effects of simultaneous randomization of each input parameter for the impedance prediction and measurement processes. A sensitivity analysis is then used to further evaluate the TP prediction model by varying its input parameters on an individual basis. The variation imposed on the input parameters is based on measurements conducted with multiple tests in the NASA Langley normal incidence and grazing incidence impedance tubes; thus, the input parameters are assigned uncertainties commensurate with those of the measured data. These same measured data are used with the NASA Langley impedance measurement (eduction) processes to determine the corresponding measured impedance uncertainty limits, such that the predicted and measured impedance uncertainty limits (95% confidence intervals) can be compared. The measured reactance 95% confidence intervals encompass the corresponding predicted reactance confidence intervals over the frequency range of interest. The same is true for the confidence intervals of the measured and predicted resistance at near-resonance frequencies, but the predicted resistance confidence intervals are lower than the measured resistance confidence intervals (no overlap) at frequencies away from resonance. A sensitivity analysis indicates the discharge coefficient uncertainty is the major contributor to uncertainty in the predicted impedances for the perforate-over-honeycomb liner used in this study. This insight regarding the relative importance of each input parameter will be used to guide the design of experiments with test rigs currently being brought on-line at NASA Langley.

Jones, M. G.↗

DOE OSTI2019

Parametric Optimization Problem Formulation for Connected Hybrid Electric Vehicles using Neural Network based Equivalent Model

The dynamics of powertrain control systems are complicated and involve both nonlinear plant model and control functionalities, albeit they are well defined and formulated using first principle approaches. This constitutes difficulties in exploring implementable optimal tuning rules for some selected control parameters using vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) communications. This paper presents a way to use neural networks (NN) to represent the problem of parameter tuning for optimizing fuel consumption. For this purpose, physical modelling and validation have been firstly performed for the closed loop powertrain system of the concerned vehicle for some given driving cycles. This is then followed by the sensitivity analysis that selects most influential control parameters to optimize. Using the data generated from the obtained physical models, an equivalent NN formulation has finally been obtained that gives simple yet unified objectives and constraints ready to be used to solve the optimization problem that produces optimal tuning rules for the selected control parameters to minimize fuel consumption.

Parameter optimization, V2X, Powertrain modeling↗

DOE OSTI2023

Voltage-Based Strategies for Preventing Battery Degradation under Diverse Fast-Charging Conditions

Maintaining safe operating conditions is a key challenge for high-performance lithium-ion battery applications. The lithium-plating reaction remains a risk during charging, but limited studies consider the highly variable charging conditions possible in commercial cells. Here we combine pseudo-2D electrochemical modeling with data visualization methods to reveal important relationships between the measurable cell voltage and difficult-to-predict Li-plating onset criteria. An extensively validated model is used to compute Li plating for thousands of multistep charging conditions spanning diverse rates, temperatures, states-of-charge, and cell aging. Here we observe an empirical cell operating voltage limit below which plating does not occur across all conditions, and this limit varies with the battery state-of-charge and aging. A model sensitivity analysis also indicates that, when comparing two charging voltage profiles, the capacity difference at 4.0 V correlates well with the difference in the plating onset capacity. These results encourage simple strategies for Li-plating prevention that are complementary to existing battery controls.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Sensitivity and Uncertainty Quantification of Transition Scenario Simulations

This report documents the first collective attempt at developing and applying capabilities to quantify uncertainties, assess parametric sensitivities, and optimize multiple parameters and metrics in fuel cycle simulations generated by the SA&I Campaign. To do this, external codes that were designed to perform sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification (SA&UQ) needed to be coupled to the SA&I Campaign’s nuclear fuel cycle simulators (NFCS). In FY20, two approaches were pursued: 1) coupling Cyclus to an ORNL-internal code called MOT (Metaheuristic Optimization Tool) and 2) coupling DYMOND to the opensource SA&UQ tool kit Dakota. The primary objective of having these NFCS/SA&UQ coupled capabilities is to better inform DOE-NE and other stakeholders on the results generated from the NFCS. For a given set of fuel cycle strategies, policies, and technology assumptions that make up a fuel cycle scenario, these NFCS have traditionally been used by the SA&I Campaign to provide quantitative answers in terms of year-by-year mass flows, infrastructure requirements, costs, etc. With these newly developed coupled capabilities, the SA&I Campaign can now efficiently simulate hundreds or thousands of these scenarios, sample large ranges of parameters and assumptions, and use the unique features of the SA&UQ tools to process the data. This enables providing answers with known and propagated uncertainties, determining the sensitivity of important metrics to different parameters and assumptions, quantifying how much fuel cycle and technology parameters impact each other, and producing optimized fuel cycle strategies for single and multiple variables. To demonstrate these new capabilities, the Cyclus/MOT was used to model several scenarios ranging from simple fleet retirements to transitions to advanced reactors. Specifically, for a transition scenario from LWRs to SFRs and advanced LWRs, uncertainty quantification, sensitivity analysis, and optimization studies were applied to cases involving single and multiple parameter (input) and single and multiple metric (output) variations. In addition, a similar transition scenario was modeled to demonstrate how to optimize the reprocessing capacity parameter to minimize two performance metrics while taking into account uncertainties from two other parameters. Lastly, a depletion module based on SCALE/ORIGEN was added in Cyclus to simulate the third scenario that was designed to quantify the impact of the modeling assumption that all LWR used nuclear fuel have the same burnup. The newly developed DYMOND/Dakota capability was also applied to a transition scenario from the existing fleet to small modular reactors and fast reactors. This particular scenario involves not only explicit isotopic depletion via ORIGEN-2, but also includes multirecycling and utilizing the criticality search feature to determine the fresh fuel composition of recycled fuel, a feature unique to the DYMOND NFCS. A large database of simulations were run with 4 main parameters that were sampled: start date of reprocessing, reprocessing capacity, energy demand growth rate, and advanced reactor share of the fleet. The 4 main metrics were uranium consumption, enrichment requirements, waste generation, and levelized cost of electricity using data from the Cost Basis Report. The demonstrated SA&UQ results include those that inform on how to choose parameters to avoid “failed” scenarios, Sobol’ indices that inform on the importance of various parameters individually and synergistically, and Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) studies that decompose parameter ranges into groups and informs on whether variations are statistically significant.

Feng, B.↗

DOE OSTI2015

A new surrogate modeling technique combining Kriging and polynomial chaos expansions – Application to uncertainty analysis in computational dosimetry

In numerical dosimetry, the recent advances in high performance computing led to a strong reduction of the required computational time to assess the specific absorption rate (SAR) characterizing the human exposure to electromagnetic waves. However, this procedure remains time-consuming and a single simulation can request several hours. As a consequence, the influence of uncertain input parameters on the SAR cannot be analyzed using crude Monte Carlo simulation. The solution presented here to perform such an analysis is surrogate modeling. This paper proposes a novel approach to build such a surrogate model from a design of experiments. Considering a sparse representation of the polynomial chaos expansions using least-angle regression as a selection algorithm to retain the most influential polynomials, this paper proposes to use the selected polynomials as regression functions for the universal Kriging model. The leave-one-out cross validation is used to select the optimal number of polynomials in the deterministic part of the Kriging model. The proposed approach, called LARS-Kriging-PC modeling, is applied to three benchmark examples and then to a full-scale metamodeling problem involving the exposure of a numerical fetus model to a femtocell device. The performances of the LARS-Kriging-PC are compared to an ordinary Kriging model and to a classical sparse polynomial chaos expansion. The LARS-Kriging-PC appears to have better performances than the two other approaches. A significant accuracy improvement is observed compared to the ordinary Kriging or to the sparse polynomial chaos depending on the studied case. This approach seems to be an optimal solution between the two other classical approaches. A global sensitivity analysis is finally performed on the LARS-Kriging-PC model of the fetus exposure problem.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2021

New insights into the drainage of inundated ice-wedge polygons using fundamental hydrologic principles

Abstract. The pathways and timing of drainage from the inundated centers of ice-wedge polygons in a warming climate have important implications for carbon flushing, advective heat transport, and transitions from methane to carbon dioxide dominated emissions. Here, we expand on previous research using a recently developed analytical model of drainage from a low-centered polygon. Specifically, we perform (1) a calibration to field data identifying necessary model refinements and (2) a rigorous model sensitivity analysis that expands on previously published indications of polygon drainage characteristics. This research provides intuition on inundated polygon drainage by presenting the first in-depth analysis of drainage within a polygon based on hydrogeological first principles. We verify a recently developed analytical solution of polygon drainage through a calibration to a season of field measurements. Due to the parsimony of the model, providing the potential that it could fail, we identify the minimum necessary refinements that allow the model to match water levels measured in a low-centered polygon. We find that (1) the measured precipitation must be increased by a factor of around 2.2, and (2) the vertical soil hydraulic conductivity must decrease with increasing thaw depth. Model refinement (1) accounts for runoff from rims into the ice-wedge polygon pond during precipitation events and possible rain gauge undercatch, while refinement (2) accounts for the decreasing permeability of deeper soil layers. The calibration to field measurements supports the validity of the model, indicating that it is able to represent ice-wedge polygon drainage dynamics. We then use the analytical solution in non-dimensional form to provide a baseline for the effects of polygon aspect ratios (radius to thaw depth) and coefficient of hydraulic conductivity anisotropy (horizontal to vertical hydraulic conductivity) on drainage pathways and temporal depletion of ponded water from inundated ice-wedge polygon centers. By varying the polygon aspect ratio, we evaluate the relative effect of polygon size (width), inter-annual increases in active-layer thickness, and seasonal increases in thaw depth on drainage. The results of our sensitivity analysis rigorously confirm a previous analysis indicating that most drainage through the active layer occurs along an annular region of the polygon center near the rims. This has important implications for transport of nutrients (such as dissolved organic carbon) and advection of heat towards ice-wedge tops. We also provide a comprehensive investigation of the effect of polygon aspect ratio and anisotropy on drainage timing and patterns, expanding on previously published research. Our results indicate that polygons with large aspect ratios and high anisotropy will have the most distributed drainage, while polygons with large aspect ratios and low anisotropy will have their drainage most focused near their periphery and will drain most slowly. Polygons with small aspect ratios and high anisotropy will drain most quickly. These results, based on parametric investigation of idealized scenarios, provide a baseline for further research considering the geometric and hydraulic complexities of ice-wedge polygons.

Harp, Dylan R. (ORCID:0000000197778000)↗

DOE OSTI2012

Comparison of Triton SODAR Data to Meteorological Tower Wind Measurement Data in Hebei Province, China

With the increased interest in remote sensing of wind information in recent years, it is important to determine the reliability and accuracy of new wind measurement technologies if they are to replace or supplement conventional tower-based measurements. In view of this, HydroChina Corporation and the United States National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) conducted a comparative test near awind farm in Hebei Province, China. We present the results of an analysis characterizing the measurement performance of a state-of-the-art Sound Detection and Ranging (sodar) device when compared to a traditional tower measurement program. NREL performed the initial analysis of a three-month period and sent the results to HydroChina. When another month of data became available, HydroChina andtheir consultant Beijing Millenium Engineering Software (MLN) repeated NREL's analysis on the complete data set, also adding sensitivity analysis for temperature, humidity, and wind speed (Section 6). This report presents the results of HydroChina's final analysis of the four-month period.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2015

A Multicomponent Blend as a Diesel Fuel Surrogate for Compression Ignition Engine Applications

A mixture of n-dodecane and m-xylene is investigated as a diesel fuel surrogate for compression ignition engine applications. Compared to neat n-dodecane, this binary mixture is more representative of diesel fuel because it contains an alkyl-benzene which represents an important chemical class present in diesel fuels. A detailed multi-component mechanism for n-dodecane and m-xylene was developed by combining a previously developed n-dodecane mechanism with a recently developed mechanism for xylenes. The xylene mechanism is shown to reproduce experimental ignition data from a rapid compression machine and shock tube, speciation data from the jet stirred reactor and flame speed data. This combined mechanism was validated by comparing predictions from the model with experimental data for ignition in shock tubes and for reactivity in a flow reactor. The combined mechanism, consisting of 2885 species and 11754 reactions, was reduced to a skeletal mechanism consisting 163 species and 887 reactions for 3D diesel engine simulations. The mechanism reduction was performed using directed relation graph (DRG) with expert knowledge (DRG-X) and DRG-aided sensitivity analysis (DRGASA) at a fixed fuel composition of 77% of n-dodecane and 23% m-xylene by volume. The sample space for the reduction covered pressure of 1 – 80 bar, equivalence ratio of 0.5 – 2.0, and initial temperature of 700 – 1600 K for ignition. The skeletal mechanism was compared with the detailed mechanism for ignition and flow reactor predictions. Finally, the skeletal mechanism was validated against a spray flame dataset under diesel engine conditions documented on the Engine Combustion Network (ECN) website. These multidimensional simulations were performed using a Representative Interactive Flame (RIF) turbulent combustion model. In conclusion, encouraging results were obtained compared to the experiments with regards to the predictions of ignition delay and lift-off length at different ambient temperatures.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian Calibration of Stochastic Agent Based Model via Random Forest

Agent-based models (ABM) provide an excellent framework for modeling outbreaks and interventions in epidemiology by explicitly accounting for diverse individual interactions and environments. However, these models are usually stochastic and highly parametrized, requiring precise calibration for predictive performance. When considering realistic numbers of agents and properly accounting for stochasticity, this high-dimensional calibration can be computationally prohibitive. This paper presents a random forest-based surrogate modeling technique to accelerate the evaluation of ABMs and demonstrates its use to calibrate an epidemiological ABM named CityCOVID via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). The technique is first outlined in the context of CityCOVID's quantities of interest, namely hospitalizations and deaths, by exploring dimensionality reduction via temporal decomposition with principal component analysis (PCA) and via sensitivity analysis. The calibration problem is then presented, and samples are generated to best match COVID-19 hospitalization and death numbers in Chicago from March to June in 2020. Further, these results are compared with previous approximate Bayesian calibration (IMABC) results, and their predictive performance is analyzed, showing improved performance with a reduction in computation.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2019

Minimally Invasive Treatment for Benign Prostatic Hyperplasia: Economic Evaluation from a Standardized Hospital Case Costing System

Purpose: Minimally invasive alternatives to transurethral resection of the prostate (TURP) such as prostate arterial embolization (PAE) and photoselective vaporization of the prostate (PVP) are being explored as adjuncts in the care of patients with benign prostatic hyperplasia. However, there are conflicting reports of the costs of these procedures. The purpose of this study was to compare the direct and indirect hospital costs of TURP, PAE and PVP. Materials and Methods: A chart review was performed in patients who underwent TURP, PVP and PAE from April 2015 to March 2017. All hospital costs were collected in accordance with the Ontario Case Costing Initiative, a standardized medical case costing system. Costs were characterized as direct or indirect and fixed or variable. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis was conducted to study cost uncertainty. Results: During the study period, a total of 209 men underwent TURP, 28 PVP and 21 PAE. Mean age (years) was as follows: TURP 71.43; PVP 73.66; PAE 70.77 (p = 0.366). Mean length of stay (days) was as follows: TURP 1.63; PVP 1.55; PAE 1 (p = 0.076). Total costs of the PAE group ($3829, SD $1582) were less than both PVP ($5719, SD $1515) and TURP groups ($5034, SD $1997, p < 0.001). There was no significant difference in direct costs between the groups. Monte Carlo simulation demonstrated that PAE was the least costly alternative majority of the time. Conclusions: The total hospital costs of PAE at our institution are significantly lower than those of PVP and TURP.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗