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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Completed SDSS-IV extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey: Cosmological implications from two decades of spectroscopic surveys at the Apache Point Observatory

We present the cosmological implications from final measurements of clustering using galaxies, quasars, and Lyα forests from the completed Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) lineage of experiments in large-scale structure. These experiments, composed of data from SDSS, SDSS-II, BOSS, and eBOSS, offer independent measurements of baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) measurements of angular-diameter distances and Hubble distances relative to the sound horizon, r d , from eight different samples and six measurements of the growth rate parameter, fσ 8 , from redshift-space distortions (RSD). This composite sample is the most constraining of its kind and allows us to perform a comprehensive assessment of the cosmological model after two decades of dedicated spectroscopic observation. We show that the BAO data alone are able to rule out dark-energy-free models at more than eight standard deviations in an extension to the flat, ΛCDM model that allows for curvature. When combined with Planck Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) measurements of temperature and polarization, under the same model, the BAO data provide nearly an order of magnitude improvement on curvature constraints relative to primary CMB constraints alone. Independent of distance measurements, the SDSS RSD data complement weak lensing measurements from the Dark Energy Survey (DES) in demonstrating a preference for a flat ΛCDM cosmological model when combined with Planck measurements. The combined BAO and RSD measurements indicate σ 8 =0.85±0.03, implying a growth rate that is consistent with predictions from Planck temperature and polarization data and with General Relativity. When combining the results of SDSS BAO and RSD, Planck, Pantheon Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia), and DES weak lensing and clustering measurements, all multiple-parameter extensions remain consistent with a ΛCDM model. Regardless of cosmological model, the precision on each of the three parameters, Ω Λ , H 0 , and σ 8 , remains at roughly 1%, showing changes of less than 0.6% in the central values between models. In a model that allows for free curvature and a time-evolving equation of state for dark energy, the combined samples produce a constraint Ω K =-0.0022±0.0022. The dark energy constraints lead to w 0 =-0.909±0.081 and w a =$-0.49_{-0.30}^{+0.35}$, corresponding to an equation of state of w p =-1.018±0.032 at a pivot redshift z p =0.29 and a Dark Energy Task Force Figure of Merit of 94. The inverse distance ladder measurement under this model yields H 0 =68.18±0.79 km s -1 Mpc -1 , remaining in tension with several direct determination methods; the BAO data allow Hubble constant estimates that are robust against the assumption of the cosmological model. In addition, the BAO data allow estimates of H 0 that are independent of the CMB data, with similar central values and precision under a ΛCDM model. Our most constraining combination of data gives the upper limit on the sum of neutrino masses at Σm ν <0.115 eV (95% confidence). Finally, we consider the improvements in cosmology constraints over the last decade by comparing our results to a sample representative of the period 2000-2010. We compute the relative gain across the five dimensions spanned by w, Ω k , Σm ν , H 0 , and σ 8 and find that the SDSS BAO and RSD data reduce the total posterior volume by a factor of 40 relative to the previous generation. Finally, adding again the Planck, DES, and Pantheon SN Ia samples leads to an overall contraction in the five-dimensional posterior volume of 3 orders of magnitude.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Suppression of ferromagnetism governed by a critical lattice parameter in CeTiGe 3 with hydrostatic pressure or V substitution

We combine structural and magnetic measurements to compare the different magnetic phase diagrams between the pressure and substitution studies in CeTiGe 3 . We report on the structural, magnetic, and electrical transport properties of single crystals of CeTi 1–x V x Ge 3 (x = 0, 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.9, and 1), and of polycrystalline samples (x = 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8), as well as structural properties of CeTiGe 3 under pressure up to 9 GPa. The ferromagnetic ordering in CeTiGe 3 is suppressed with V doping in CeTi 1–x V x Ge 3 , and suggests a possible ferromagnetic quantum critical point near x = 0.45. We perform a detailed crystalline electric field (CEF) analysis, and the magnetic susceptibility data in pure CeTiGe 3 and CeVGe 3 can be well explained by the CEF model. The proposed CEF energy levels suggest that there is a gradual change of the ground state from |±5/2 in CeTiGe 3 to |±1/2 in CeVGe 3 , and a suppression of CEF splitting energies near the quantum critical region. When hydrostatic pressure is used instead of chemical substitution, the quantum critical point is avoided by the appearance of magnetic phases above around 4.1 GPa. In the substitution study, the ferromagnetic and antiferromagnetic regions are well separated, whereas they touch in the pressure study. We observe a different trend in the temperature dependence of the resistivity maximum in both studies, suggesting that the CEF splitting energy is suppressed by V substitution but enhanced by pressure. Here, we also observe different responses in lattice constants between the two studies, highlighting the fact that substitution effects cannot be reduced to chemical pressure effects only. Nevertheless, when the magnetic phase diagrams of both hydrostatic pressure and substitution are compared, we find a common critical lattice constant c = 5.78 Å where the ferromagnetic ordering is suppressed in both studies.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2020

Three-dimensional phase field sintering simulations accounting for the rigid-body motion of individual grains

Sintering is a widely used powder processing technique in industrial applications. During sintering, atoms migrate to decrease the energy of the system via two main mechanisms: coarsening and densification, both of which lead to significant morphological variation of the sintered microstructure. When simulating sintering dynamics, the phase-field method has been broadly utilized because of its convenience in tracking morphology evolution. When a large number of grains is involved, it is common to use the same order parameter to describe multiple grains that are not in direct contact with one another (in order to reduce the computational memory demands). However, with this treatment it is difficult to handle the rigid-body motion of individual grains during densification. In this work, an implementation scheme is introduced to overcome the challenge of calculating individual particle motion based on existing equations. It uses a grouping algorithm and sets a cutoff radius on each grain for calculating the particle velocity during densification. This method allows for the incorporation of the densification mechanism, which has been commonly ignored in previous work, into phase-field sintering models in three-dimensional simulations with a large number of particles/grains. Moreover, through combination with the smoothed boundary method, material properties of sintered microstructures, such as the effective diffusivity and Young’s modulus, can be calculated during the sintering processes.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Similarity Metric for Data Optimization and Efficient Training of Reactive Machine Learning Force Fields for Hydrocarbon Radiolysis

Radiolysis is a common approach to sterilize polymers, chemically modify them for upcycling, and accelerate their decomposition for recycling purposes. Reactive molecular dynamics (MD) simulations provide a powerful tool to generate atomic-level trajectories of the reactive processes and quantify radiolytic chemical degradation pathways. For this, machine learning (ML) surrogate models for reactive force fields with quantum mechanical accuracy are now widely used, which require ML training data sets that can provide information on atomic environments for target chemical systems. However, radiolysis chemistry can be highly complex and diverse, which poses significant challenges for generating training data to parametrize ML models. In this regard, we developed a method for optimizing the training data set using a cosine similarity metric to help guide training set selection for radiolysis of polyethylene, a model hydrocarbon polymer, as well as to enhance the transferability of our reactive ML force field (MLFF) to a variety of molecular and polymeric systems. Our approach performs atom-by-atom comparisons between local atomic environments to pinpoint important data points associated with rare and localized events, such as radiolysis damage within structures. We apply this approach to train the Chebyshev Interaction Model for Efficient Simulation (ChIMES) MLFF model, which expresses the atomic interaction potentials in terms of linear combinations of many-body Chebyshev polynomials. We first show that our method can reduce our training set size by ∼70% while improving overall accuracy compared to more standard MD model fitting approaches. We then validate our optimum model against diverse hydrocarbon simulation data, including simple alkanes and systems with unsaturated carbon bonds, over a wide range of thermodynamic conditions. Finally, we use our ChIMES model to perform MD simulations of radiolytic damage with large-scale systems that help avoid system size effects. Overall, our approach yields an MD force field that retains most of the accuracy of the underlying quantum method while yielding many orders of improvement in computational efficiency. In conclusion, our efforts will have impact on future hydrocarbon polymer radiolysis studies, where the chemical details of the polymer–radiation interactions can have a strong effect on the resulting products observed in experiments.

Hydrocarbons↗
DOE OSTI2022

Stochastic and a posteriori optimization to mitigate coil manufacturing errors in stellarator design

Abstract It was recently shown in Wechsung et al (2022 Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 119 e2202084119) that there exist electromagnetic coils that generate magnetic fields, which are excellent approximations to quasi-symmetric fields and have very good particle confinement properties. Using a Gaussian process-based model for coil perturbations, we investigate the impact of manufacturing errors on the performance of these coils. We show that even fairly small errors result in noticeable performance degradation. While stochastic optimization yields minor improvements, it is not possible to mitigate these errors significantly. As an alternative to stochastic optimization, we then formulate a new optimization problem for computing optimal adjustments of the coil positions and currents without changing the shapes of the coil. These a-posteriori adjustments are able to reduce the impact of coil errors by an order of magnitude, providing a new perspective for dealing with manufacturing tolerances in stellarator design.

Physics↗
DOE OSTI2020

Photo-z outlier self-calibration in weak lensing surveys

Calibrating photometric redshift errors in weak lensing surveys with external data is extremely challenging. In this work, we show that both Gaussian and outlier photo-z parameters can be self-calibrated from the data alone. This comes at no cost for the neutrino masses, curvature and dark energy equation of state w0, but with a 65% degradation when both w0 and wa are varied. We perform a realistic forecast for the Vera Rubin Observatory (VRO) Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) 3× 2 analysis, combining cosmic shear, projected galaxy clustering and galaxy - galaxy lensing. We confirm the importance of marginalizing over photo-z outliers. We examine a subset of internal cross-correlations, dubbed "null correlations", which are usually ignored in 3× 2 analyses. Despite contributing only ~ 10% of the total signal-to-noise, these null correlations improve the constraints on photo-z parameters by up to an order of magnitude. Using the same galaxy sample as sources and lenses dramatically improves the photo-z uncertainties too. Together, these methods add robustness to any claim of detected new Physics, and reduce the statistical errors on cosmology by 15% and 10% respectively. Finally, including CMB lensing from an experiment like Simons Observatory or CMB-S4 improves the cosmological and photo-z posterior constraints by about 10%, and further improves the robustness to systematics. To give intuition on the Fisher forecasts, we examine in detail several toy models that explain the origin of the photo-z self-calibration. Our Fisher code LaSSI (Large-Scale Structure Information), which includes the effect of Gaussian and outlier photo-z, shear multiplicative bias, linear galaxy bias, and extensions to LCDM, is publicly available at \href{https://github.com/EmmanuelSchaan/LaSSI}{https://github.com/EmmanuelSchaan/LaSSI}.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Entanglement and seniority

In quantum mechanics entanglement is the most striking phenomenon which has no counterpart in classical systems. Although, different approaches have already been developed to study correlations in the case of indistinguishable particles, the exploration of the so-called mode entanglement is still in its initial stage in nuclear physics. Study of mode-entanglement in the seniority model, derivation of analytic formulas for the one-body reduced density matrix of states with seniority $ν$ = 0, 1, 2, and $ν$ = 3, and also determination of the particle number dependence of the one-body reduced density matrix for arbitrary seniority. In addition, comparison of the predictions of the seniority model with the results of the shell model to gain insight into the structure and correlations of the ground and lowest yrast states. In the seniority model the analytic results are calculated using the quasi-spin formalism. The numerical shell model calculations are carried out in the standard shell model framework using an inert core. The applied realistic effective interactions are derived earlier using the $G$-matrix formalism. The density matrix renormalization group method is also applied in order to directly calculate the mode entropies. In the seniority model simple analytical expressions are given for the mode entropies. The peculiar behavior of the half-filled shells and the seniority-zero states are revealed. Numerical results are presented for the lightest stable calcium isotopes and for 94 Ru nucleus. For 94 Ru, the seniority model accounts for the 0$g$ 9/2 mode entropies, but seniority mixing is important for certain yrast states. Furthermore, interaction induced quantum fluctuations decrease the occupation of the 0$f$ 5/2 , 1$p$ 3/2 and 1$p$ 1/2 shells, and amount in non-negligible mode entropies on these shells, too, clearly outside the scope of the simple (0$g$ 9/2 ) 4 seniority model. The 0$f$ 7/2 shell-based seniority model is more accurate for the Ca isotopes, but seniority mixing is substantial for some 44 Ca yrast states, too. Mode and one-body entanglement entropies are useful tools to investigate the structure of quantum correlations in nuclei.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Using root and soil traits to forecast woody encroachment dynamics in mesic grassland

Grasslands are a widespread and globally important biome providing key ecosystem services including C storage and regulation of the water cycle. Grasslands face multiple threats, including changes in drought intensity and woody encroachment - a process that results in increased woody plant abundance corresponding with decreased herbaceous plant abundance. The combination of reduced soil moisture and shifts in plant dominance from herbaceous to woody are likely to alter C pools in the soil profile. We currently do not have the capacity to predict either the magnitude or rates of change in these C pools. In order to predict changes in grassland vegetation structure and the associated impacts on C cycling requires greater understanding of changes in soil C pools at multiple soil depths, and the responses of these pools to changes in precipitation. To support and perform this parameterization of Land Surface Models, we performed detailed investigations of root (anatomical and physiological) and soil traits (microbial function) at varying soil depths, to capture the belowground impacts of changing dominant plant growth forms (grasses to shrubs) and the impacts of frequent drought.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Koopman-based Differentiable Predictive Control for the Dynamics-Aware Economic Dispatch Problem

The dynamics-aware economic dispatch (DED) problem embeds low-level generator dynamics and operational constraints to enable near real-time scheduling of generation units in a power network. DED produces a more dynamic supervisory control policy than traditional economic dispatch (T-ED) that reduces overall generation costs. However, the incorporation of differential equations that govern the system dynamics makes DED an optimization problem that is computationally prohibitive to solve. In this work, we present a new data-driven approach based on differentiable programming to efficiently obtain offline parametric solutions to the underlying DED problem. In particular, we employ the recently proposed differentiable predictive control (DPC) for offline learning of explicit neural control policies based on identified Koopman operator (KO) model of the system dynamics. We demonstrate the high solution quality and five orders of magnitude computational-time savings of the DPC method over the original optimization-based DED approach on a 9-bus test power grid network.

King, Ethan↗
DOE OSTI2021

Development of a Unified Taxonomy for HVAC System Faults

Detecting and diagnosing HVAC faults is critical for maintaining building operation performance, reducing energy waste, and ensuring indoor comfort. An increasing deployment of commercial fault detection and diagnostics (FDD) software tools in commercial buildings in the past decade has significantly increased buildings’ operational reliability and reduced energy consumption. A massive amount of data has been generated by the FDD software tools. However, efficiently utilizing FDD data for ‘big data’ analytics, algorithm improvement, and other data-driven applications is challenging because the format and naming conventions of those data are very customized, unstructured, and hard to interpret. This paper presents the development of a unified taxonomy for HVAC faults. A taxonomy is an orderly classification of HVAC faults according to their characteristics and causal relations. The taxonomy includes fault categorization, physical hierarchy, fault library, relation model, and naming/tagging scheme. The taxonomy employs both a physical hierarchy of HVAC equipment and a cause-effect relationship model to reveal the root causes of faults in HVAC systems. A structured and standardized vocabulary library is developed to increase data representability and interpretability. The developed fault taxonomy can be used for HVAC system ‘big data’ analytics such as HVAC system fault prevalence analysis or the development of an HVAC FDD software standard. A common type of HVAC equipment-packaged rooftop unit (RTU) is used as an example to demonstrate the application of the developed fault taxonomy. Two RTU FDD software tools are used to show that after mapping FDD data according to the taxonomy, the meta-analysis of the multiple FDD reports is possible and efficient.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Instabilities driven by the fundamental crabbing mode

The Electron Ion Collider (EIC) requires crab cavities to correct for crossing angle effects. These cavities produce a time varying horizontal kick that makes the collision head on in the center of mass frame of the bunches. This results in a luminosity that is very close to the the luminosity obtained without a crossing angle. Producing the kick requires a transverse RF field. This field requires a superconducting resonator and reasonable power levels require loaded quality factors of order a million. This results is a very large transverse impedance for the crabbing mode. The horizontal beta function is large and this, coupled with the large transverse impedance of the resonator can lead to strong instabilities. In the first section of the paper a simple model is used to describe the situation without feedback. There are large ranges of tune leading to strong instabilities in both the electron and hadron storage rings of the EIC. These estimates are confirmed with simulations. In the second section, RF feedback is used to reduce the apparent impedance of the crabbing mode. Simulating the actual feedback would require both a significant rewrite of the tracking code and a significant reduction in computational speed. Instead, the apparent impedance is fitted using one pole filters, which allows use of the existing simulation code. In the third section a transverse damping system is outlined.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Bounds on Velocity-dependent Dark Matter–Proton Scattering from Milky Way Satellite Abundance

We use the latest measurements of the Milky Way satellite population from the Dark Energy Survey and Pan-STARRS1 to infer the most stringent astrophysical bound to date on velocity-dependent interactions between dark matter particles and protons. We model the momentum-transfer cross section as a power law of the relative particle velocity v with a free normalizing amplitude, σ MT = σ 0 v n , to broadly capture the interactions arising within the nonrelativistic effective theory of dark matter–proton scattering. The scattering leads to a momentum and heat transfer between the baryon and dark matter fluids in the early universe, ultimately erasing structure on small physical scales and reducing the abundance of low-mass halos that host dwarf galaxies today. From the consistency of observations with the cold collisionless dark matter paradigm, using a new method that relies on the most robust predictions of the linear perturbation theory, we infer an upper limit on σ0 of 1.4 × 10 -23 , 2.1 × 10 -19 , and 1.0 × 10 -12 cm 2 , for interaction models with n = 2, 4, and 6, respectively, for a dark matter particle mass of 10 MeV. These results improve observational limits on dark matter–proton scattering by orders of magnitude and thus provide an important guide for viable sub-GeV dark matter candidates.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Implementation of an Experimental Setup Based on the Three-Omega Method for Thermal Conductivity Measurements of Molten Salts

Molten salt reactors (MSRs) are one of the most promising next-generation nuclear reactor designs which use molten salts as the fuel and coolant. To design, model, predict, license, and operate MSRs, the behavior of the fuel and coolant must be understood as a function of temperature and irradiation, i.e., burnup. Of particular importance and complexity is the reliable and reproducible measurement of thermal conductivity of molten salts at high temperatures (> 500 °C). Thermal conductivity provides information on the rate at which heat passes through a specified material and is dependent on chemical composition. Currently, in the national laboratory complex, several methods for measuring thermal conductivity on molten salt systems are under development, however, to date, consistent data have not been produced. Typically, thermal conductivity measurements of high-temperature melts have been conducted by using the Transient Hot Wire (THW) method where thermal conductivity is determined by the change in temperature over time at a certain distance from a heating wire. Another time-dependent technique is the laser flash method, commonly used for solid samples. Laser flash requires prior measurements of density and heat capacity to calculate the thermal conductivity of the sample, introducing additional measurement errors. Steady state and time-dependent measurements such as THW and laser flash have errors from convection and ambient temperature fluctuations (heat radiation). In order to produce high fidelity thermal conductivity data, a measurement technique needs to be developed that will reduce the effect of convection at high temperatures by measuring in a very fast time window. In addition, to measure on actinide and irradiated salts the sample size should be small. Therefore, this project aims to develop a frequency-domain technique based on the three-omega (3?) method, previously proven to work on solids, nanofluids and low temperature solar salts (25 to 250 °C). If the 3?-device can be designed with materials that can withstand high temperatures (>500 °C) and can be configured to reduce errors due to convection, then it would prove to be a valuable technique for ensuring thermal conductivity on molten salt systems needed for MSR development. For this proposal, the 3? instrument will be designed, assembled, and tested on non-radioactive salts before being used on actinide bearing salts. In addition, a thermal model will be developed to determine the thermal conductivity of the sample from the measured thermal oscillation of the sensor. Because 3? is a direct method that requires a small volume of sample and works in a very fast time window, it will aid in suppressing the interference due to convection which is ideal when working with high temperature liquid samples.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2020

All-multiplicity one-loop amplitudes in Born-Infeld electrodynamics from generalized unitarity

We initiate a study of non-supersymmetric Born-Infeld electrodynamics in 4d at the quantum level. Explicit all-multiplicity expressions are calculated for the purely rational one-loop amplitudes in the self-dual (+ + … +) and next-to-self-dual (- + … +) helicity sectors. Using a supersymmetric decomposition, d-dimensional unitarity cuts of the integrand factorize into tree-amplitudes in a 4d model of Born-Infeld photons coupled to a massive complex scalar. The two-scalar tree-amplitudes needed to construct the Born-Infeld integrand are computed using two complimentary approaches: (1) as a double-copy of Yang-Mills coupled to a massive adjoint scalar with a dimensionally reduced form of Chiral Perturbation Theory, and (2) by imposing consistency with low-energy theorems under a reduction from 4d to 3d and T-duality. The Born-Infeld integrand is integrated in d = 4 - 2ϵ dimensions at order Ο(ϵ 0 ) using the dimension-shifting formalism. We comment on the implications for electromagnetic duality in quantum Born-Infeld theory.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Neural message-passing for objective-based uncertainty quantification and optimal experimental design

Various real-world scientific applications involve the mathematical modeling of complex uncertain systems with numerous unknown parameters. Accurate parameter estimation is often practically infeasible in such systems, as the available training data may be insufficient and the cost of acquiring additional data may be high. In such cases, based on a Bayesian paradigm, we can design robust operators retaining the best overall performance across all possible models and design optimal experiments that can effectively reduce uncertainty to enhance the performance of such operators maximally. While objective-based uncertainty quantification (objective-UQ) based on MOCU (mean objective cost of uncertainty) provides an effective means for quantifying uncertainty in complex systems, the high computational cost of estimating MOCU has been a challenge in applying it to real-world scientific/engineering problems. In this work, we propose a novel scheme to reduce the computational cost for objective-UQ via MOCU based on a data-driven approach. We adopt a neural message-passing model for surrogate modeling, incorporating a novel axiomatic constraint loss that penalizes an increase in the estimated system uncertainty. As an illustrative example, we consider the optimal experimental design (OED) problem for uncertain Kuramoto models, where the goal is to predict the experiments that can most effectively enhance robust synchronization performance through uncertainty reduction. We show that our proposed approach can accelerate MOCU-based OED by four to five orders of magnitude, without any visible performance loss compared to the state-of-the-art. The proposed approach applies to general OED tasks, beyond the Kuramoto model.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Charge lifetime improvement of the Continuous Electron Beam Accelerator Facility photogun with a biased anode

GaAs photocathodes in dc high-voltage photoguns are highly susceptible to ion back-bombardment, which reduces the photocathode quantum efficiency and limits the useful operating lifetime for producing polarized electron beams. This paper demonstrates that applying a small positive bias to the photogun anode can significantly suppress ion back-bombardment and increase charge lifetime. This technique was studied extensively using the Continuous Electron Beam Accelerator Facility photogun, where highly polarized electron beams created using a strained-superlattice GaAs / GaAsP photocathode were used and charge lifetimes improved by almost a factor of 2. A new simulation code was developed to model ion production and tracking in order to better understand and explain the factors that led to the performance improvement. Results of the experiments and simulations are discussed in detail. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Analysis and Optimization of Seismo-Acoustic Monitoring Networks with Bayesian Optimal Experimental Design

The Bayesian optimal experimental design (OED) problem seeks to identify data, sensor configurations, or experiments which can optimally reduce uncertainty. The goal of OED is to find an experiment that maximizes the expected information gain (EIG) about quantities of interest given prior knowledge about expected data. Therefore, within the context of seismic monitoring, we can use Bayesian OED to configure sensor networks by choosing sensor locations, types, and fidelity in order to improve our ability to identify and locate seismic sources. In this work, we develop the framework necessary to use Bayesian OED to optimize the ability to locate seismic events from arrival time data of detected seismic phases. In order to do utilize Bayesian OED we must develop four elements:1. A likelihood function that describes the uncertainty of detection and travel times; 2. A Bayesian solver that takes a prior and likelihood to identify the posterior; 3. An algorithm to compute EIG; and, 4. An optimizer that finds a sensor network which maximizes EIG. Once we have developed this framework, we can explore many relevant questions to monitoring such as: how and what multiphenomenology data can be used to optimally reduce uncertainty, how to trade off sensor fidelity and earth model uncertainty, and how sensor types, number, and locations influence uncertainty

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Short-Term Solar Forecasting Platform Using a Physics-Based Smart Persistence Model and Data Imputation Method

Electrical energy plays vital role in our socio-economic activity and therefore ensuring the reliability of the electric grid, from the generation, transmission and distribution level is critical. In order to maintain the power system parameter viz., frequency, voltage, etc., optimally, balancing of generation and consumption is very much essential. However, solar energy is infirm power by nature this is due to cloud cover / other local phenomena. Hence, Photovoltaic (PV) power generation brings a significant challenge to the grid operator due to the variability of the solar energy. The complexity of this challenge in terms of planning and dispatch ability of PV resources, aggravates with the high penetration of solar energy into the electric grid. In this setting, reliable solar radiation forecasting models based on accurate and quality input data become essential. In order to develop a suitable model for predicting solar radiation, quality historical / real time measurement is also needed. Under this study NIWE and NREL jointly developed / tested short-term solar forecasting frameworks using a smart persistence and physics-based smart persistence models for intra-hour forecasting of solar radiation (PSPI) and benchmarked 9 different data imputation techniques in 15 Solar Radiation Resource Assessment (SRRA) stations, located at different parts of India. During any measurement campaign, due to various technical reasons, we may miss few observations. However, the missing observation often reduce the performance of any forecasting model. Therefore, suitable data imputation method would assist us to obtain continuous observation of solar radiation. A station-by-station and method-by-method analysis was carried out to understand the performance of each model. Based on our analysis, among all the data imputation methods, the Kalman data imputation method is better for Indian Weather condition. In addition, Kalman StructTS, Linear, Stine and Arima methods yield slightly inferior accuracy compared to Kalman, but outperform the other methods. The extended solar radiation data are used by solar forecasting models to provide the prediction of solar radiation at 15 SRRA stations. As far as short term forecasting model is concerned, the PSPI model outperforms the Smart Persistence model. However, the forecast error is increases with the forecasting horizon.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗