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Winter Simulation Conference, Miami Beach, Fla., December 4-6, 1978, Proceedings. Volumes 1 & 2

The papers report on the various aspects of simulation such as random variate generation, simulation optimization, ranking and selection of alternatives, model management, documentation, data bases, and instructional methods. Simulation studies in a wide variety of fields are described, including system design and scheduling, government and social systems, agriculture, computer systems, the military, transportation, corporate planning, ecosystems, health care, manufacturing and industrial systems, computer networks, education, energy, production planning and control, financial models, behavioral models, information systems, and inventory control.

Highland, H. J.↗

Modal methods in optimal control synthesis

Efficient algorithms for solving linear smoother-follower problems with quadratic criteria are presented. For time-invariant systems, the algorithm consists of one backward integration of a linear vector equation and one forward integration of another linear vector equation. Furthermore, the backward and forward Riccati matrices can be expressed in terms of the eigenvalues and eigenvectors of the Euler-Lagrange equations. Hence, the gains of the forward and backward Kalman-Bucy filters and of the optimal state-feedback regulator can be determined without integration of matrix Riccati equations. A computer program has been developed, based on this method of determining the gains, to synthesize the optimal time-invariant compensator in the presence of random disturbance inputs and random measurement errors. The program also computes the rms state and control variables of the optimal closed-loop system.

Bryson, A. E., Jr.↗

Determination of atmospheric density using a space-launched projectile

A method is proposed that provides advance information about unpredictable atmospheric density dispersions that must be accommodated during random operations of aeroassisted-orbital-transfer vehicles (AOTVs). The principal feature is that a test or 'scout' projectile precedes the AOTV through the same region of the atmosphere as that of the predicted transatmospheric flight trajectory. The atmospheric density structure is determined from the vehicle's aerodynamic deceleration characteristics by on-board or ground-based tracking equipment. The time lag between passage of the projectile and the AOTV can be adjusted to only that time necessary to implement required guidance, navigation, and control (GN&C) corrections. The various strategies available to control the projectile's flight characteristics are analyzed in detail. The results are correlated with aerothermodynamic heating and materials requirements to ensure the survival of the projectile and, consequently, the capability of the AOTV to navigate a variable upper atmosphere within specified limits.

Menees, G. P.↗

Automated mesoscale wind fields derived from GOES satellite imagery

A new multispectral image-processing system for extracting mesoscale wind fields automatically from sequences of GOES imagery is described. This system can produce equivalent or superior cloud-wind estimates compared to the time-consuming manual methods used on various interactive meteorological processing systems. Analysis of automated mesoscale cloud winds yield an estimated random error value of less than 1 m/s and produces both regional and mesoscale vector wind-field structure and divergence patterns that are consistent in time and highly correlated with subsequent severe thunderstorm development. As an example, the system is here applied to SMS II five-minute imagery from April 24, 1975 and the results are compared with manually obtained ones.

Wilson, G. S.↗

Responses Of A DRAM To Energetic Heavy Ions

Report presents results of experiments where multiple-bit errors were induced in 256-kbit commercial integrated-circuit dynamic random-access memory (DRAM) by variety of normally incident heavy ions. Idea demonstrates utility of DRAM and methods used to analyze experimental data, with view towards applying methods and data to other digital integrated circuits.

Zoutendyk, John A.↗

Protein Kinase Classification with 2866 Hidden Markov Models and One Support Vector Machine

The main application considered in this paper is predicting true kinases from randomly permuted kinases that share the same length and amino acid distributions as the true kinases. Numerous methods already exist for this classification task, such as HMMs, motif-matchers, and sequence comparison algorithms. We build on some of these efforts by creating a vector from the output of thousands of structurally based HMMs, created offline with Pfam-A seed alignments using SAM-T99, which then must be combined into an overall classification for the protein. Then we use a Support Vector Machine for classifying this large ensemble Pfam-Vector, with a polynomial and chisquared kernel. In particular, the chi-squared kernel SVM performs better than the HMMs and better than the BLAST pairwise comparisons, when predicting true from false kinases in some respects, but no one algorithm is best for all purposes or in all instances so we consider the particular strengths and weaknesses of each.

Weber, Ryan↗

Tactile Cueing as a Gravitational Substitute for Spatial Navigation During Parabolic Flight

INTRODUCTION: Spatial navigation requires an accurate awareness of orientation in your environment. The purpose of this experiment was to examine how spatial awareness was impaired with changing gravitational cues during parabolic flight, and the extent to which vibrotactile feedback of orientation could be used to help improve performance. METHODS: Six subjects were restrained in a chair tilted relative to the plane floor, and placed at random positions during the start of the microgravity phase. Subjects reported their orientation using verbal reports, and used a hand-held controller to point to a desired target location presented using a virtual reality video mask. This task was repeated with and without constant tactile cueing of "down" direction using a belt of 8 tactors placed around the mid-torso. Control measures were obtained during ground testing using both upright and tilted conditions. RESULTS: Perceptual estimates of orientation and pointing accuracy were impaired during microgravity or during rotation about an upright axis in 1g. The amount of error was proportional to the amount of chair displacement. Perceptual errors were reduced during movement about a tilted axis on earth. CONCLUSIONS: Reduced perceptual errors during tilts in 1g indicate the importance of otolith and somatosensory cues for maintaining spatial awareness. Tactile cueing may improve navigation in operational environments or clinical populations, providing a non-visual non-auditory feedback of orientation or desired direction heading.

Montgomery, K. L.↗

Improving AIRS Radiance Spectra in High Contrast Scenes Using MODIS

The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) on the EOS Aqua Spacecraft was launched on May 4, 2002. AIRS acquires hyperspectral infrared radiances in 2378 channels ranging in wavelength from 3.7-15.4 microns with spectral resolution of better than 1200, and spatial resolution of 13.5 km with global daily coverage. The AIRS is designed to measure temperature and water vapor profiles for improvement in weather forecast accuracy and improved understanding of climate processes. As with most instruments, the AIRS Point Spread Functions (PSFs) are not the same for all detectors. When viewing a non-uniform scene, this causes a significant radiometric error in some channels that is scene dependent and cannot be removed without knowledge of the underlying scene. The magnitude of the error depends on the combination of non-uniformity of the AIRS spatial response for a given channel and the non-uniformity of the scene, but is typically only noticeable in about 1% of the scenes and about 10% of the channels. The current solution is to avoid those channels when performing geophysical retrievals. In this effort we use data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument to provide information on the scene uniformity that is used to correct the AIRS data. For the vast majority of channels and footprints the technique works extremely well when compared to a Principal Component (PC) reconstruction of the AIRS channels. In some cases where the scene has high inhomogeneity in an irregular pattern, and in some channels, the method can actually degrade the spectrum. Most of the degraded channels appear to be slightly affected by random noise introduced in the process, but those with larger degradation may be affected by alignment errors in the AIRS relative to MODIS or uncertainties in the PSF. Despite these errors, the methodology shows the ability to correct AIRS radiances in non-uniform scenes under some of the worst case conditions and improves the ability to match AIRS and MODIS radiances in non-uniform scenes.

spatial↗

All-acrylic multigraft copolymer superelastomers

Thermoplastic elastomer compositions comprising acrylic multigraft copolymers are described. The multigraft copolymers comprise a rubbery polyacrylate backbone and a plurality of randomly spaced glassy polyacrylate side chains. The multigraft copolymers can be prepared using a facile grafting through method that can provide copolymers with enhanced purity. The acrylic multigraft copolymers exhibit microphase separated morphologies and “superelastomeric” properties, including an elongation at break, stress at break, and/or strain recovery behavior that exceeds that of conventional triblock copolymer polyacrylate thermoplastic elastomers.

Mays, Jimmy W.↗

Sampling Size Optimization for Bioburden Density Estimation in Planetary Protection

Planetary protection (PP) is a discipline that focuses on minimizing the biological contamination of spacecraft to ensure compliance with international policy. Precise estimation of bioburden - the total number of microbes in or on spacecraft hardware – and the bioburden density are of utmost importance for PP. Such estimation is the way concordance with requirements is demonstrated, and it is critical for quantifying the potential risk of inadvertently contaminating other planetary bodies. Although a suite of molecular techniques have been used to thoroughly characterize and profile the microbiome of various cleanroom environments and spacecraft, the gold standard remains the physical enumeration of microbes via culturing of samples directly taken from spacecraft and associated surfaces. However, due to technical, budgetary, and programmatic constraints, only a manageable portion (around 10%) of the entire spacecraft surface is directly sampled with cotton swabs or wipes. To generate the bioburden current best estimate (CBE) for components not directly verifiable, the accepted approach is to apply a NASA-defined bioburden estimate based on the components’ manufacturing or assembly environment. This approach utilizes a prespecified bioburden density estimation that applies a maximum value across the total surface area of the specified component. For hardware components that underwent similar assembly processes, an implied bioburden is adopted for all components, based on a direct verification of a representative component within the same lot. Once all components have a CBE, the bioburden estimates are generated. In previous publication [ 1], we have shown that statistical risks quantifying the accuracy of the estimates for sampled, prespecified, and implied components can be derived and ranked. For mean squared error (MSE) function, the risks are available analytically and hence a cost function can be obtained to optimize the risks with respect to the sampling area and sampling cost. Since the sampling area and sampling cost are two complimentary variables, their sum will have a well-defined minimum. This paper presents the multivariate optimization of the integrated risk of an empirical Bayes estimator to determine the optimal sampling schedule for a given number of components. It is assumed that given a number of components, N, the bioburden density for each component can either be sampled, implied, or prespecified. The multivariate optimization searches through different options to sample, imply or prespecify the bioburden density for a component, and account for the component’s surface area and cost of sampling. The idea of the optimization is based on the observation that the statistical risk of using an estimator is a monotonically decreasing function of the sampled area. The larger the sampled area, the lower the risk of using the estimator as the estimator becomes more and more accurate as the sampling area increases. On the other hand, the cost of sampling is monotonically increasing as the sampled surface grows. This makes the risk and total cost of sampling complimentary variables which can be counterbalanced to achieve an optimal overall value with respect to the sampled surface. In this paper, the integrated risk has been used to quantify the accuracy of the estimator. This risk has been selected because it depends on neither the true value of the parameter nor on the collected data. The cost of each sample was also available to obtain the total cost of sampling of N components. The paper will present the results based on computer-simulated data as well as the data collected during the InSight mission. The computer-simulated data have N components with randomly generated total areas and each component assigned to one of the three categories according to the method of estimating of bioburden density: sampled, implied, or prespecified. The cost of sampling is also available. The cost of sampling is estimated based on a cost model provided by the planetary protection group at JPL. For this paper, the overall cost was assumed to be a linear function of exposure. The optimization process finds the allocation of the components to the three categories that minimizes the tradeoff between integrated risk and total cost. For the InSight data, a set of components is selected representing all three categories, and optimization is performed to determine if the performed allocation was optimal or if a better allocation could have been obtained. To the best of our knowledge, this work is the first attempt not only perform an accurate estimation of bioburden density but also do it in an optimal way.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

An adaptive stochastic sequential quadratic programming with differentiable exact augmented lagrangians

In this study, we consider solving nonlinear optimization problems with a stochastic objective and deterministic equality constraints. We assume for the objective that its evaluation, gradient, and Hessian are inaccessible, while one can compute their stochastic estimates by, for example, subsampling. We propose a stochastic algorithm based on sequential quadratic programming (SQP) that uses a differentiable exact augmented Lagrangian as the merit function. To motivate our algorithm design, we first revisit and simplify an old SQP method Lucidi developed for solving deterministic problems, which serves as the skeleton of our stochastic algorithm. Based on the simplified deterministic algorithm, we then propose a non-adaptive SQP for dealing with stochastic objective, where the gradient and Hessian are replaced by stochastic estimates but the stepsizes are deterministic and prespecified. Finally, we incorporate a recent stochastic line search procedure Paquette and Scheinberg into the non-adaptive stochastic SQP to adaptively select the random stepsizes, which leads to an adaptive stochastic SQP. The global "almost sure" convergence for both non-adaptive and adaptive SQP methods is established. Numerical experiments on nonlinear problems in CUTEst test set demonstrate the superiority of the adaptive algorithm.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Combining biomarker and virus phylogenetic models improves HIV-1 epidemiological source identification

To identify and stop active HIV transmission chains new epidemiological techniques are needed. Here, we describe the development of a multi-biomarker augmentation to phylogenetic inference of the underlying transmission history in a local population. HIV biomarkers are measurable biological quantities that have some relationship to the amount of time someone has been infected with HIV. To train our model, we used five biomarkers based on real data from serological assays, HIV sequence data, and target cell counts in longitudinally followed, untreated patients with known infection times. The biomarkers were modeled with a mixed effects framework to allow for patient specific variation and general trends, and fit to patient data using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. Subsequently, the density of the unobserved infection time conditional on observed biomarkers were obtained by integrating out the random effects from the model fit. This probabilistic information about infection times was incorporated into the likelihood function for the transmission history and phylogenetic tree reconstruction, informed by the HIV sequence data. To critically test our methodology, we developed a coalescent-based simulation framework that generates phylogenies and biomarkers given a specific or general transmission history. Testing on many epidemiological scenarios showed that biomarker augmented phylogenetics can reach 90% accuracy under idealized situations. Under realistic within-host HIV-1 evolution, involving substantial within-host diversification and frequent transmission of multiple lineages, the average accuracy was at about 50% in transmission clusters involving 5–50 hosts. Realistic biomarker data added on average 16 percentage points over using the phylogeny alone. Using more biomarkers improved the performance. Shorter temporal spacing between transmission events and increased transmission heterogeneity reduced reconstruction accuracy, but larger clusters were not harder to get right. More sequence data per infected host also improved accuracy. We show that the method is robust to incomplete sampling and that adding biomarkers improves reconstructions of real HIV-1 transmission histories. The technology presented here could allow for better prevention programs by providing data for locally informed and tailored strategies.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Sensitivity Enhancement and Random Telegraph Noise in Magnetic Tunnel Junctions with Compensated Anisotropy

We demonstrate the manipulation of perpendicular magnetic anisotropy (PMA) in magnetic tunnel junctions (MTJs) by varying the layer stacks and temperature. PMA is tuned to compensate the shape anisotropy, giving a nonhysteretic magnetic response, a noteworthy sensitivity enhancement, and a field detectability of 1.8 nT/$\sqrt{Hz}$ at 100 kHz. Such a method is further exemplified in multiple MTJs, providing a solution to obtain desired sensitivities and operating temperatures. Additionally, the electronic noise of this MTJ is revealed as a random telegraph noise (RTN) due to a generation-recombination process. In conclusion, the observed voltage-dependent RTN could potentially be applied to true random number generators.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

An Evaluation of Timely Communications Access Methods Using NASA Space Network

There is a growing interest among scientists to coordinate diverse and temporally responsive measurements from multiple space and ground-based observatories in order to obtain greater insights into transient scientific events than would otherwise be possible. Many transient scientific events of interest occur randomly and the scientific value of follow-up observations decays with time. As a result, transient science operations among distributed observatories require timely access to communications network services. This paper develops two complimentary methods to improve users’ network access timeliness using the NASA Space Network (SN). Descriptive models of each method are developed using Systems Modeling Language. Pathfinder experiments are designed and executed. Suitability of the methods is discussed in light of the experimental results. Innovative applications of the methods are presented. This research establishes that the as-built SN systems have adequate capabilities and capacity to support infusion of the methods to current and future users with emergent time-sensitive service needs. The minimum service access wait time was determined to be approximately 10 min and is achievable 84% of the time. An average access wait time of approximately 14 min is expected when SN resource blocking occurs. A roadmap to improve SN access timeliness is presented.

Space Communications and Navigation↗

A Review of Spectral Methods for Variable Amplitude Fatigue Prediction and New Results

A comprehensive review of the available methods for estimating fatigue damage from variable amplitude loading is presented. The dependence of fatigue damage accumulation on power spectral density (psd) is investigated for random processes relevant to real structures such as in offshore or aerospace applications. Beginning with the Rayleigh (or narrow band) approximation, attempts at improved approximations or corrections to the Rayleigh approximation are examined by comparison to rainflow analysis of time histories simulated from psd functions representative of simple theoretical and real world applications. Spectral methods investigated include corrections by Wirsching and Light, Ortiz and Chen, the Dirlik formula, and the Single-Moment method, among other more recent proposed methods. Good agreement is obtained between the spectral methods and the time-domain rainflow identification for most cases, with some limitations. Guidelines are given for using the several spectral methods to increase confidence in the damage estimate.

Larsen, Curtis E.↗

Missing Data and Multiple Imputation: An Unbiased Approach

The default method of dealing with missing data in statistical analyses is to only use the complete observations (complete case analysis), which can lead to unexpected bias when data do not meet the assumption of missing completely at random (MCAR). For the assumption of MCAR to be met, missingness cannot be related to either the observed or unobserved variables. A less stringent assumption, missing at random (MAR), requires that missingness not be associated with the value of the missing variable itself, but can be associated with the other observed variables. When data are truly MAR as opposed to MCAR, the default complete case analysis method can lead to biased results. There are statistical options available to adjust for data that are MAR, including multiple imputation (MI) which is consistent and efficient at estimating effects. Multiple imputation uses informing variables to determine statistical distributions for each piece of missing data. Then multiple datasets are created by randomly drawing on the distributions for each piece of missing data. Since MI is efficient, only a limited number, usually less than 20, of imputed datasets are required to get stable estimates. Each imputed dataset is analyzed using standard statistical techniques, and then results are combined to get overall estimates of effect. A simulation study will be demonstrated to show the results of using the default complete case analysis, and MI in a linear regression of MCAR and MAR simulated data. Further, MI was successfully applied to the association study of CO2 levels and headaches when initial analysis showed there may be an underlying association between missing CO2 levels and reported headaches. Through MI, we were able to show that there is a strong association between average CO2 levels and the risk of headaches. Each unit increase in CO2 (mmHg) resulted in a doubling in the odds of reported headaches.

Foy, M.↗

Superspin renormalization and slow relaxation in random spin systems

We develop an excited-state real-space renormalization group (RSRG-X) formalism to describe the dynamics of conserved densities in randomly interacting spin-12 systems. Our formalism is suitable for systems with U(1) and Z2 symmetries, and we apply it to chains of randomly positioned spins with dipolar XX+YY interactions, as arise in Rydberg quantum simulators and other platforms. The formalism generates a sequence of effective Hamiltonians that provide approximate descriptions for dynamics on successively smaller energy scales. These effective Hamiltonians involve “superspins”: two-level collective degrees of freedom constructed from (anti)aligned microscopic spins. Conserved densities can then be understood as relaxing via coherent collective spin flips. For the well-studied simpler case of randomly interacting nearest-neighbor XX+YY chains, the superspins reduce to single spins. Our formalism also leads to a numerical method capable of simulating the dynamics up to an otherwise inaccessible combination of large system size and late time. Focusing on disorder-averaged infinite-temperature autocorrelation functions, in particular the spin survival probability Sp¯(t), we demonstrate quantitative agreement between our algorithm and exact diagonalization (ED) at low but nonzero frequencies. Such agreement holds for chains with nearest-neighbor, next-nearest-neighbor, and long-range dipolar interactions. Our results indicate decay of Sp¯(t) slower than any power law and feature no significant deviation from the ∼1/ln2(t) asymptote expected from the infinite-randomness fixed-point of the nearest-neighbor model. We also apply the RSRG-X formalism to two-dimensional long-range systems of moderate size and find slow late-time decay of Sp¯(t).

Zhao, Yi J↗

Shadow Distillation: Quantum Error Mitigation with Classical Shadows for Near-Term Quantum Processors

Mitigating errors in quantum information processing devices is especially important in the absence of fault tolerance. An effective method in suppressing state-preparation errors is using multiple copies to distill the ideal component from a noisy quantum state. Here, we use classical shadows and randomized measurements to circumvent the need for coherent access to multiple copies at an exponential cost. We study the scaling of resources using numerical simulations and find that the overhead is still favorable compared to full state tomography. We optimize measurement resources under realistic experimental constraints and apply our method to an experiment preparing a Greenberger-Horne-Zeilinger state with trapped ions. In addition to improving stabilizer measurements, the analysis of the improved results reveals the nature of errors affecting the experiment. Hence, our results provide a directly applicable method for mitigating errors in near-term quantum computers.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗