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At least 1,315 records · Page 73

Risk-based System Upgrade Planning for AOT-IC Presentation [Slides]

The number of deployed systems and different HW/SW form factors makes it difficult to maintain a complete understanding of their health which leads to a reduced level of certainty when assessing risk and trying to prioritize system upgrade efforts. AOT-IC must constantly plan and execute system upgrade and replacement projects to ensure the longevity of the control system. There are many more projects needed than the group can realistically accomplish given schedule and resource constraints. The group must prioritize their upgrade projects to choose only the highest priority projects to execute each year. Currently plans upgrade and replacement projects based on alignment with mission needs, group vision, resource availability, and qualitative risk assessments based on SME estimates. The group maintains a risk register. This is useful as a tool for shaping strategic planning but currently lacks the quantitative data and process needed to generate accurate risk assessments.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Remote sensing in Michigan for land resource management

During the period from June 1972 to June 1973, remote sensing techniques were applied to the following tasks: (1) mapping Michigan's land resources, (2) waterfowl habitat management at Point Mouillee, (3) mapping of Lake Erie shoreline flooding, (4) highway impact assessment, (5) applications of the Earth Resources Technology Satellite, ERTS-1, (6) investigation of natural gas eruptions near Williamsburg, and (7) commercial site selection. The goal of the program was the large scale adaption, by both public agencies and private interests in Michigan, of earth-resource survey technology as an important aid in the solution of current problems in resources management and environmental protection.

Sattinger, I. J.↗

Evidence-based indicator approach to guide preliminary environmental impact assessments of hydropower development

Global expansion of hydropower resources has increased in recent years to meet growing energy demands and fill worldwide gaps in electricity supply. However, hydropower induces significant environmental impacts on river ecosystems - impacts that are addressed through environmental impact assessment (EIA) processes. The need for effective EIA processes is increasing as environmental regulations are either stressed in developing countries undertaking rapid expansion of hydropower capacity or time- and resource-intensive in developed countries. Part of the challenge in implementing EIAs lies in reaching a consensus among stakeholders regarding the most important environmental factors as the focus of impact studies. To help address this gap, we developed a weight-of-evidence approach (and toolkit) as a preliminary and coarse assessment of the most relevant impacts of hydropower on primary components of the river ecosystem, as identified using river function indicators. Through a science-based questionnaire and predictive model, users identify which environmental indicators may be impacted during hydropower development as well as those indicators that have the highest levels of uncertainty and require further investigation. Furthermore, an assessment tool visualizes inter-dependent indicator relationships, which help formulate hypotheses about causal relationships explored through environmental studies. We apply these tools to four existing hydropower projects and one hypothetical new hydropower project of varying sizes and environmental contexts. We observed consistencies between the output of our tools and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission licensing process (inclusive of EIAs) but also important differences arising from holistic scientific evaluations (our toolkit) versus regulatory policies. The tools presented herein are aimed at increasing the efficiency of the EIA processes that engender environmental studies without loss of rigor or transparency of rationale necessary for understanding, considering, and mitigating the environmental consequences of hydropower.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Long-term spatial and temporal solar resource variability over America using the NSRDB version 3 (1998–2017)

The study assesses the long-term spatial and temporal solar resource variability in America using the 20-year National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL's) National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB). Specifically, the coefficient of variation (COV) is used to analyze the spatial and temporal (interannual and seasonal) variability. Further, both spatial and temporal long-term variability are analyzed using the Köppen-Geiger climate classification. The temporal variability is found that, on average, the continental United States (CONUS) COV reaches up to 5% for global horizontal irradiance (GHI) and 10% for direct normal irradiance (DNI), and that the NSRDB domain's COV is roughly twice that of CONUS. For the seasonal variability analysis, the winter months are found to exhibit higher COV than the other seasons. In particular, December exhibits the highest variability, reaching on average 30% for DNI and 20% for GHI over various areas. On the other hand, the summer months demonstrate significantly lower variability, reaching only less than 20% for DNI and 10% for GHI, on average. Similarly, the spatial variability is analyzed by comparing each pixel to its neighbors. The long-term spatial variability is found to increase with the number of neighboring pixels being considered, which is equivalent to an increase in distance (within a 100-km x 100-km square grid). As expected, the DNI spatial variability is higher than that of GHI. Moreover, the annual solar irradiance anomalies are found to reach ±25% for both GHI and DNI (and even exceed those value in some instances) during each year of the 20-year period.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Life cycle assessment and tempo-spatial optimization of deploying dynamic wireless charging technology for electric cars

Dynamic wireless power transfer (DWPT), or dynamic wireless charging technology, enables charging-while-driving and offers opportunities for eliminating range anxiety, stimulating market penetration of electric vehicles (EVs), and enhancing the sustainability performance of electrified transportation. However, the deployment of wireless charging lanes on highways and urban road networks can be costly and resource-intensive. A life cycle assessment (LCA) is conducted here to compare the sustainability performance of DWPT applied in a network of highways and urban roads for charging electric passenger cars. The assessment compares DWPT to stationary wireless charging and to conventional plug-in charging using a case study of Washtenaw County in Michigan, USA over 20 years. The LCA is based on three key sustainability metrics: costs, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and energy burdens, encompassing not only the use-phase burdens from electricity and fuel, but also the upfront deployment burdens of DWPT infrastructure. A genetic algorithm is applied to optimize the rollout of DWPT infrastructure both spatially and temporally in order to minimize life cycle costs, GHG, and energy burdens: (1) spatial optimization selects road segments to deploy DWPT considering traffic volume, speed, and pavement remaining service life (RSL); (2) temporal optimization determines in which year to deploy DWPT on a particular road segment considering EV market share growth as a function of DWPT coverage rate, future DWPT cost reduction, and charging efficiency improvement. Results indicate that optimal deployment of DWPT electrifying up to about 3% of total roadway lane-miles reduces life cycle GHG emissions and energy by up to 9.0% and 6.8%, respectively, and enables downsizing of the EV battery capacity by up to 48%, compared to the non-DWPT scenarios. Roadside solar panels and storage batteries are essential to significantly reduce life cycle energy and GHG burdens but bring additional costs. Breakeven analysis indicates a breakeven year for solar charging benefits to pay back the DWPT infrastructure burdens can be less than 20 years for GHG and energy burdens but longer than 20 years for costs. A monetization of carbon emissions of at least $250 per metric tonne of CO 2 is required to shift the optimal “pro-cost” deployment to the optimal “pro-GHG” deployment. A roadway segment with volume greater than about 26,000 vehicle counts per day, speed slower than 55 miles per hour (1 mile ≈ 1.609 km), and pavement RSL shorter than 3 years should be given a high priority for early-stage DWPT deployment.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Identifying University Chemicals That Pose Security Risks: A Simple Qualitative Approach

Various laboratory-focused tools and methodologies for completing a safety risk assessment have been published, yet few similar resources to address chemical security exist. Herein, we describe a chemical security risk assessment case study at a university in a developing country. In this case study, we demonstrate a chemical security risk assessment for a university chemistry department, using an original inventory of 645 entries which was condensed to 295 chemicals after removing duplicates and erroneous entries. We then prioritized to highlight 83 chemicals of interest based on hazardous or dual-use properties that could lead to unacceptable consequences. We further refined to a list of 34 high-risk chemicals that required action, 48 chemicals that may need further justification and consideration for additional protection, and 1 chemical that did not need further consideration for additional protection.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Results of an irrigated lands assessment for water management in California

Periodic assessment of existing and future demands for water within California is one responsibility of the California Department of Water Resources (CDWR). The California Irrigated Lands Assessment for Water Management Project represented a 5-year joint research effort between the NASA and the CDWR with technical support from the University of California (UC) at Berkeley and at Santa Barbara. The objectives were: (1) to develop and demonstrate procedures for providing highly precise, timely, estimates of irrigated area on a statewide basis using Landsat sensor data, and (2) to develop, through research with small demonstration sites, a procedure for the inventory and mapping of crop groups on a regional basis. Both manual and computer-assisted analyses were investigated. This paper highlights the statewide irrigated lands inventory where a procedure for statewide estimation of irrigated land using full frame Landsat MSS imagery and sampled ground data was successfully demonstrated. The statewide estimate of 3 990 112 hectares was within + or - 1.32 percent relative standard error at the 95-percent Confidence Interval, well within the design goal. This procedure represents a new capability for obtaining near-real time data on changes in agricultural water use throughout the state.

Bauer, E. H.↗

Field evaluation of remote wind sensing technologies: Shore-based and buoy mounted LIDAR systems

In developing a national energy strategy, the United States has a number of objectives, including increasing economic growth, improving environmental quality, and enhancing national energy security. Wind power contributes to these objectives through the deployment of clean, affordable and reliable domestic energy. To achieve U.S. wind generation objectives, the Wind and Water Power Program within the Department of Energy’s (DOE) Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) instituted the U.S. Offshore Wind: Removing Market Barriers Program in FY 2011. Accurate and comprehensive information on offshore wind resource characteristics across a range of spatial and temporal scales is one market barrier that needs to be addressed through advanced research in remote sensing technologies. There is a pressing need for reliable offshore wind-speed measurements to assess the availability of the potential wind energy resource in terms of power production and to identify any frequently occurring spatial variability in the offshore wind resource that may impact the operational reliability and lifetime of wind turbines and their components and to provide a verification program to validate the “bankability” of the output of these alternative technologies for use by finance institutions for the financing of offshore wind farm construction. The application of emerging remote sensing technologies is viewed as a means to cost-effectively meet the data needs of the offshore wind industry. In particular, scanning and buoy mounted LIDAR have been proposed as a means to obtain accurate offshore wind data at multiple locations without the high cost and regulatory hurdles associated with the construction of offshore meteorological towers. However; before these remote sensing technologies can be accepted the validity of the measured data must be evaluated to ensure their accuracy. The proposed research will establish a unique coastal ocean test-bed in the Mid-Atlantic for the evaluation of LIDAR-based wind measurement systems to validate the accuracy of remotely measured wind data in marine applications. Specifically, the test-bed will be utilized to systematically evaluate the capability of emerging scanning LIDAR and buoy mounted vertically profiling LIDAR by: (1) Evaluating a fixed scanning LIDAR against land-based 50 and 60 meter high meteorological masts fitted with research quality cup-vane and/or sonic anemometers; (2) Evaluating a buoy mounted vertically profiling LIDAR fixed on land and floating in a sheltered bay against a co-located 60 meter high meteorological mast fitted with a research quality cup-vane and/or sonic anemometers and the fixed scanning LIDAR; and (3) Offshore field evaluation of both LIDAR platforms through a comparison of the fixed scanning LIDAR data and data obtained by the buoy mounted LIDAR located 10 miles offshore. The proposed research will systematically validate Light Detection and Ranging (LIDAR) based wind measurement systems and assess the temporal and spatial variability of the offshore wind resource in the Mid-Atlantic east of New Jersey. The goal of the proposed project is to address the technical and commercial challenges of the offshore wind energy industry by validating and assessing cost-effective, over ocean wind resource characterization technologies. The objective is to systematically evaluate the capability of both scanning and vertically profiling LIDARs to accurately measure 3D wind fields through comparison with fixed met masts and intercomparison among LIDAR platforms. Once validated, data collected by both buoy mounted vertically profiling LIDARs and shore-based, pulsed horizontally scanning LIDARs can be used to accurately assess offshore wind resources and to quantify the spatial and temporal variability in the offshore wind fields. One of the fundamental research questions to be addressed in phase 1 is the assessment of various measurement and data processing schemes to retrieve accurate wind vectors in the marine environment over large sampling ranges (10 to 12 km) and varying atmospheric aerosol levels. Atmospheric conditions and aerosol content within the coastal ocean region of the Mid-Atlantic seaboard of the US can vary significantly over short time periods in response to frontal passages and extratropical and tropical low pressure system passage offshore of the coast. Since aerosols provide the scattering medium for the determination of LIDAR Doppler shifts in the atmosphere the accuracy and range of LIDAR derived velocity measurements as a function of variation in aerosol content in the marine environment is a key research question to be addressed. In phase 1, it is desired to capture as much variation in atmospheric conditions and aerosol content as possible. To this end, collocated measurements of LIDAR and standard anemometer wind fields will be captured by the project PIs over all four seasons and during specific events (e.g., coastal low pressure system passage) in year 1. Additionally, since the meteorological masts are permanent structures, additional events can be captured over the three year duration of the field research project. All research instruments are owned by Fishermen’s Energy and made available to the PIs though a lease agreement as part of the DOE grant. Energy Fishermen’s Energy will be responsible for the operation and maintenance of the scanning LIDAR and met mast anemometers. On a daily basis, environmental data and systems performance indicators will be transmitted from each measurement station to the Fishermen’s project team consisting of both in-house personnel and equipment manufacturer engineers. Data sets include compiled LIDAR files as well as data sets from ancillary sensors. Diagnostic parameters to be monitored include standard deviations of measured values, battery levels and charging systems output, and the operational status. Once data have been confirmed as complete and reliable, files will be transferred to the Garrad Hassan (a subcontractor to Fishermen’s Energy) for incorporation in to the validation database, which is accessible to other scientific team members. Data collection times and durations will be determined by the PI and Co-PIs in consultation with instrument engineers to ensure the capture of data representative of the expected range of mid-Atlantic atmospheric conditions (e.g., temperature, moisture, coastal low pressure systems, tropical systems, rain, snow, fog). The collection and processing of the data is a function of site specific measurement requirements (Kelley et.al. 2007; Hannon et.al. 2008). To determine the optimal profiles of wind speed and direction from the LIDAR radial velocities as a function of azimuth angle, rigorous estimates of the bias and random error of each radial velocity estimate are required. Lockheed Martin Coherent Technologies, Inc., under contract with Fishermen’s Energy, will provide analyses of raw and processed data using various scan patterns to determine optimal performance settings for the pulsed scanning LIDAR. Once optimized, appropriate processing and analyses techniques will be evaluated by Garrad Hassan for use in validating the accuracy of the LIDAR wind field measurements against the standard anemometer measurements from the meteorological masts. The most attractive capability of the scanning LIDAR is the ability to provide high spatial resolution observations in a three-dimensional volume which provides superior statistical accuracy due to the large number of samples obtained. Each radial scan provides measurements in 100 range gates over a distance of 10 to 12 km at an update rate of 5 to 10 Hz and rotation of 2.5° per second. Each rotation at a fixed azimuth requires 2.4 minutes. Depending on the number of azimuths desired a complete scan can take up to 10 minutes or longer to complete. Once collected the radial velocities are processed to produce vector wind velocity estimates based on a set of data distributed in angle and range around points of interest, typically a standard grid within the radial wind map. To calculate wind vectors over a limited spatial area of interest for the comparison of data with other measurement platforms a localized least-squares approach has been applied by Hannon et.al. (2008) and a Variation Assimilation (VAR) processing technique has been applied by Chan and al Assimilation (VAR) processing technique has been applied by Chan and Shao (2006). Additionally, Kelley et.al. (2007) applied a “stare” technique that fixed a scanning LIDAR in both azimuth and elevation angles to measure over collocated sampling volumes of the LIDAR and a 3D sonic anemometer mounted to a fixed mast. Although the stare technique is limited to wind directions aligned with the sampling radial of the LIDAR, it does provide a direct comparison of sampling volumes. Each of the processing techniques described above (and possibly others) will be evaluated to determine the validity of the LIDAR derived wind fields in the marine environment. Numerical methods such as linear regression and comparison of probability density functions of wind fields measured by each instrument platform will be used to assess the processing techniques. Linear regression has the advantage of directly evaluating corresponding pairs of wind data measured by each instrument and can lend insight into deviations and bias between instruments as a function of wind speed. Assessment of the coherency between the probability density function of the wind measured by each instrument provides insight into processes that may not be accurately resolved by each instrument at specific frequencies. Once processed and assessed the most appropriate technique will be utilized to provide valid wind measurements from the pulsed scanning LIDAR. A detailed analysis of the measurement data from the LIDAR and the three meteorological towers and comparison of the coastal wind characteristics from the different systems will be performed by the CO_PI at NREL. This analysis will evaluate how the WT LIDAR performance and measurement of the wind characteristics vary with distance from the LIDAR and by atmospheric conditions; using the tower measurements at different distances (4.8, 9.6, and 19 km) from the LIDAR as a reference. The comparative analysis will include, to the extent possible, evaluation of parameters such as wind speed and direction distributions, wind shear, turbulence intensity and their variations by atmospheric conditions, month or season, and time of day.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Life cycle impact assessment of artisanal sandstone mining on the environment and health of mine workers

Highlights: • Life cycle assessment (LCA) of artisanal sandstone mining in South Africa • Impact assessment of sandstone mining activities on environment and health • Fossil fuel and coal generated electricity are major non-renewable energy sources • Diesel fuel combustion during transportation phase contributed to major emissions • Silicosis and musculoskeletal problems are most common health issues - Abstract: Artisanal and small scale mining (ASM) is considered as a means to support and improve the quality of rural life, and is often the only activity that local communities have to sustain themselves. It is important to understand the nature of ASM and associated environmental effects in order to make informed decisions on the management, licensing and policy formulation of the ASM sector. Compared to other mined commodities such as, gold or diamond, the studies focusing on environmental and health impacts of sandstone mining are limited. This study used life cycle assessment (LCA) tool to evaluate the overall impact of artisanal sandstone mining (ASAM) on the environment and human health. The impact categories assessed in the study included: resource depletion, global warming, ozone layer depletion and acidification. It was observed that the impact of ASAM on the environment was minimal, however the high physical demand of the work negatively affected the health of the miners. The most common health related issues with the miners was observed to be silicosis and musculoskeletal problems. Fossil fuel used during transportation was observed to be the highest contributor for most of the impact categories.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Guideline for Characterizing and Evaluating a Candidate Project Site for Solar Thermal Applications

This document presents a structured procedure for characterizing and evaluating candidate project sites for concentrating solar power (CSP) and solar heat for industrial processes (SHIP) applications. The objective is to provide project developers, researchers, and other stakeholders with a consistent, technology-agnostic framework for early-stage site assessment, enabling informed decision-making prior to significant investment in project development. Site selection is a critical factor in project success or failure for both CSP and SHIP projects. Key factors such as solar resource availability, land characteristics, environmental and regulatory constraints, infrastructure availability, and community context are determined by the choice of project site and can materially impact project performance, cost, schedule, and overall viability. This procedure is designed to systematically evaluate these factors, identify potential fatal flaws, and prioritize the most favorable candidate sites for further development. The process begins with rapid screening-level evaluation, using publicly available data to assess solar resource, land availability and suitability, zoning and land-use compatibility, and exclusion zones such as protected lands or sensitive habitats. Sites that meet the minimum screening criteria advance to a more detailed characterization. Subsequent sections of this report provide guidance for a next-level assessment of the most important technical and environmental parameters, including: 1) Solar resource quality, variability, and uncertainty using multiyear datasets and, where appropriate, on-site measurement campaigns; 2) Meteorological conditions such as wind, temperature, extreme weather events, and soiling impacts; 3) Land characteristics including slope, shading, and geotechnical conditions; and 4) Environmental and regulatory considerations, including permitting processes, endangered species, cultural resources, and visual impacts. The procedure also addresses infrastructure and integration considerations, including: 1) Grid interconnection requirements for CSP power generation projects; 2) Electrical and operational integration for SHIP facilities; 3) Water availability, quality, and permitting constraints, which are particularly critical for CSP in arid regions; and 4) Site access, construction logistics, and availability of workforce and supporting services. Recognizing the importance of social and economic context, the procedure includes evaluation of community engagement factors, such as stakeholder sentiment, proximity to sensitive visual receptors, workforce development opportunities, and local economic incentives. The outputs of these assessments are synthesized in a cost and risk evaluation, translating site characteristics into expected impacts on capital cost, operating cost, schedule, and technical risk. This is complemented by screening-level performance modeling, including 8760 simulations and long-term projections, to quantify expected energy or thermal output, assess variability thereof, and support comparison between candidate sites. Finally, the procedure provides high-level guidance on a structured go/no-go decision framework, categorizing sites based on identified risks and constraints, and outlining a clear path forward to feasibility studies and front-end engineering design for viable projects. By standardizing the site characterization process across both CSP and SHIP applications, this guideline aims to: 1) Improve consistency and transparency in early-stage project evaluation; 2) Reduce development risk and avoid investment in nonviable project sites; 3) Support collaboration between developers, researchers, and public agencies; and 4) Accelerate successful deployment of concentrating solar technologies for both power generation and industrial process heat.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

2010 Remediation Effectiveness Report for the U.S. Department of Energy Oak Ridge Reservation, Oak Ridge, Tennessee - Data and Evaluations

Under the requirements of the Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR) Federal Facility Agreement (FFA) established between the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, (EPA) and the Tennessee Department of Environment and Conservation (TDEC) in 1992, all environmental restoration activities on the ORR are performed in accordance with the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act of 1980 (CERCLA). Since the 1990s, the environmental restoration activities have experienced a gradual shift from characterization to remediation. As this has occurred, it has been determined that the assessment of the individual and cumulative performance of all ORR CERCLA remedial actions (RAs) is most effectively tracked in a single document. The Remediation Effectiveness Report (RER) is an FFA document intended to collate all ORR CERCLA decision requirements, compare pre- and post-remediation conditions at CERCLA sites, and present the results of any required post-decision remediation effectiveness monitoring. First issued in 1997, the RER has been reissued annually to update the performance histories of completed actions and to add descriptions of new CERCLA actions. Monitoring information used in the 2010 RER to assess remedy performance was collected and/or compiled by DOE's Water Resources Restoration Program (WRRP). Only data used to assess performance of completed actions are provided. In addition to collecting CERCLA performance assessment data, the WRRP also collects baseline data to be used to gauge the effectiveness of future actions once implemented. These baseline data are maintained in the Oak Ridge Environmental Information System and will be reported in future RERs, as necessary, once the respective actions are completed. However, when insufficient data exist to assess the impact of the RAs, e.g., when the RA was only recently completed, a preliminary evaluation is made of early indicators of effectiveness at the watershed scale, such as contaminant trends at surface water integration points (IPs). Long-term stewardship (LTS) information used in this report is collected, compiled, and tracked by the WRRP in conjunction with the Bechtel Jacobs Company LLC (BJC) Surveillance and Maintenance (S&M) program, the BJC Radiation Protection Organization at East Tennessee Technology Park (ETTP), and the ETTP Environmental Compliance Program. Additionally, documentation verifying the implementation of administrative land use controls (LUCs) [i.e., property record restrictions, property record notices, zoning notices, and excavation/penetration permit (EPP) program] is also obtained from many sources throughout the fiscal year (FY), including County Register of Deeds offices for property record restrictions and property record notices, City Planning Commission for zoning notices, and BJC project engineers for EPP program verification. Copies of this documentation are obtained by the WRRP and maintained with the project RER files.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Thorium: Crustal abundance, joint production, and economic availability

Recently, interest in thorium's potential use in a nuclear fuel cycle has been renewed. Thorium is more abundant, at least on average, than uranium in the earth's crust and, therefore, could theoretically extend the use of nuclear energy technology beyond the economic limits of uranium resources. This paper provides an economic assessment of thorium availability by creating cumulative-availability and potential mining-industry cost curves, based on known thorium resources. These tools provide two perspectives on the economic availability of thorium. In the long term, physical quantities of thorium likely will not be a constraint on the development of a thorium fuel cycle. In the medium term, however, thorium supply may be limited by constraints associated with its production as a by-product of rare earth elements and heavy mineral sands. As a result, environmental concerns, social issues, regulation, and technology also present issues for the medium and long term supply of thorium.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Field Evaluation of the Caney Shale as an Emerging Unconventional Play, Southern Oklahoma

The Mississippian-age Caney Shale is an emerging unconventional oil and gas (UOG) resource play in the southern Midcontinent and is prospective in the Anadarko, Ardmore, Marietta and western Arkoma basins. This play is enigmatic in that time equivalent Fayetteville Shale in the eastern Arkoma basin and Barnett Shale in the Ft. Worth Basin are major unconventional plays, whereas Caney Shale production is sparse and unpredictable (Cardott, 2017). In the Anadarko, Ardmore and Marietta basins, the Caney Shale is in the oil window, but its resource potential has not been adequately assessed. The Caney reservoir is about 60-300 m thick, is rich in total organic carbon, contains a large oil resource base, and has a strong natural gas drive; however, development has been hampered by high clay content and reactivity of the formation with water. The main objective of this initial four-year research project was to address these issues by establishing a Caney Shale Field Laboratory in the Ardmore Basin of southern Oklahoma to (a) conduct a comprehensive field characterization (b) perform field experiments, and (c) validate cost-effective technologies that will lead to a comprehensive and efficient development strategy plan for Caney Shale.

02 PETROLEUM↗

2011 Remediation Effectiveness Report for the U.S. Department of Energy Oak Ridge Reservation, Oak Ridge, Tennessee - Data and Evaluations

Under the requirements of the Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR) Federal Facility Agreement (FFA) established between the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, (EPA) and the Tennessee Department of Environment and Conservation (TDEC) in 1992, all environmental restoration activities on the ORR are performed in accordance with the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act of 1980 (CERCLA). Since the 1990s, the environmental restoration activities have experienced a gradual shift from characterization to remediation. As this has occurred, it has been determined that the assessment of the individual and cumulative performance of all ORR CERCLA remedial actions (RAs) is most effectively tracked in a single document. The Remediation Effectiveness Report (RER) is an FFA document intended to collate all ORR CERCLA decision requirements, compare pre- and post-remediation conditions at CERCLA sites, and present the results of any required post-decision remediation effectiveness monitoring. First issued in 1997, the RER has been reissued annually to update the performance histories of completed actions and to add descriptions of new CERCLA actions. Monitoring information used in the 2011 RER to assess remedy performance was collected and/or compiled by DOE's Water Resources Restoration Program (WRRP). Only data used to assess performance of completed actions are provided. In addition to collecting CERCLA performance assessment data, the WRRP also collects baseline data to be used to gauge the effectiveness of future actions once implemented. These baseline data are maintained in the Oak Ridge Environmental Information System and will be reported in future RERs, as necessary, once the respective actions are completed. However, when insufficient data exist to assess the impact of the RAs, e.g., when the RA was only recently completed, a preliminary evaluation is made of early indicators of effectiveness at the watershed scale, such as contaminant trends at surface water integration points (IFs). Long-term stewardship (LTS) information used in this report is collected, compiled, and tracked by the WRRP in conjunction with the Bechtel Jacobs Company LLC (BJC) Surveillance and Maintenance (S&M) program, the BJC Radiation Protection Organization at East Tennessee Technology Park (ETTP), ETTP Environmental Compliance Program, B&W Y-12 Liquid Waste Treatment Operations, and UT Battelle Facilities Management Division. Additionally, documentation verifying the implementation of administrative land use controls (LUCs) [i.e., property record restrictions, property record notices, zoning notices, and excavation/penetration permit (EPP) program] is also obtained from many sources throughout the fiscal year (FY), including County Register of Deeds offices for property record restrictions and property record notices, City Planning Commission for zoning notices, and BJC project engineers for EPP program verification. Copies of this documentation are obtained by the WRRP and maintained with the project RER files.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Assessing boundary condition and parametric uncertainty in numerical-weather-prediction-modeled, long-term offshore wind speed through machine learning and analog ensemble

To accurately plan and manage wind power plants, not only does the time-varying wind resource at the site of interest need to be assessed but also the uncertainty connected to this estimate. Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models at the mesoscale represent a valuable way to characterize the wind resource offshore, given the challenges connected with measuring hub-height wind speed. The boundary condition and parametric uncertainty associated with modeled wind speed is often estimated by running a model ensemble. However, creating an NWP ensemble of long-term wind resource data over a large region represents a computational challenge. Here, we propose two approaches to temporally extrapolate wind speed boundary condition and parametric uncertainty using a more convenient setup in which a mesoscale ensemble is run over a short-term period (1 year), and only a single model covers the desired long-term period (20 year). We quantify hub-height wind speed boundary condition and parametric uncertainty from the short-term model ensemble as its normalized across-ensemble standard deviation. Then, we develop and apply a gradient-boosting model and an analog ensemble approach to temporally extrapolate such uncertainty to the full 20-year period, for which only a single model run is available. As a test case, we consider offshore wind resource characterization in the California Outer Continental Shelf. Both of the proposed approaches provide accurate estimates of the long-term wind speed boundary condition and parametric uncertainty across the region (R 2 >0.75), with the gradient-boosting model slightly outperforming the analog ensemble in terms of bias and centered root-mean-square error. At the three offshore wind energy lease areas in the region, we find a long-term median hourly uncertainty between 10 % and 14 % of the mean hub-height wind speed values. Finally, we assess the physical variability in the uncertainty estimates. In general, we find that the wind speed uncertainty increases closer to land. Also, neutral conditions have smaller uncertainty than the stable and unstable cases, and the modeled wind speed in winter has less boundary condition and parametric sensitivity than summer.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Probabilistic Risk-Based Approach to Aeropropulsion System Assessment Developed

In an era of shrinking development budgets and resources, where there is also an emphasis on reducing the product development cycle, the role of system assessment, performed in the early stages of an engine development program, becomes very critical to the successful development of new aeropropulsion systems. A reliable system assessment not only helps to identify the best propulsion system concept among several candidates, it can also identify which technologies are worth pursuing. This is particularly important for advanced aeropropulsion technology development programs, which require an enormous amount of resources. In the current practice of deterministic, or point-design, approaches, the uncertainties of design variables are either unaccounted for or accounted for by safety factors. This could often result in an assessment with unknown and unquantifiable reliability. Consequently, it would fail to provide additional insight into the risks associated with the new technologies, which are often needed by decisionmakers to determine the feasibility and return-on-investment of a new aircraft engine.

Tong, Michael T.↗

The challenges and opportunities in cumulative effects assessment

The cumulative effects of increasing human use of the ocean and coastal zone have contributed to a rapid decline in ocean and coastal resources. As a result, scientists are investigating how multiple, overlapping stressors accumulate in the environment and impact ecosystems. These investigations are the foundation for the development of new tools that account for and predict cumulative effects in order to more adequately prevent or mitigate negative effects. Despite scientific advances, legal requirements, and management guidance, those who conduct assessments—including resource managers, agency staff, and consultants—continue to struggle to thoroughly evaluate cumulative effects, particularly as part of the environmental assessment process. Even though 45 years have passed since the United States National Environmental Policy Act was enacted, which set a precedent for environmental assessment around the world, defining impacts, baseline, scale, and significance are still major challenges associated with assessing cumulative effects. In addition, we know little about how practitioners tackle these challenges or how assessment aligns with current scientific recommendations. To shed more light on these challenges and gaps, we undertook a comparative study on how cumulative effects assessment (CEA) is conducted by practitioners operating under some of the most well-developed environmental laws around the globe: California, USA; British Columbia, Canada; Queensland, Australia; and New Zealand. We found that practitioners used a broad and varied definition of impact for CEA, which led to differences in how baseline, scale, and significance were determined. We also found that practice and science are not closely aligned and, as such, we highlight opportunities for managers, policy makers, practitioners, and scientists to improve environmental assessment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Creating Methane from Plastics: Recycling at a Lunar Outpost

The high cost of re-supply from Earth demands resources to be utilized to the fullest extent for exploration missions. Recycling is a key technology that maximizes the available resources by converting waste products into useful commodities. One example of this is to convert crew member waste such as plastic packaging, food scraps, and human waste, into fuel. The ability to refuel on the lunar surface would reduce the vehicle mass during launch and provide excess payload capability. The goal of this project is to determine the feasibility of recycling waste into methane on the lunar outpost by performing engineering assessments and lab demonstrations of the technology. The first goal of the project was to determine how recycling could influence lunar exploration. Table I shows an estimation of the typical dried waste stream generated each day for a crew of four. Packaging waste accounts for nearly 86% of the dry waste stream and is a significant source of carbon on the lunar surface. This is important because methane (CH4) can be used as fuel and no other source of carbon is available on the lunar surface. With the initial assessment indicating there is sufficient resources in the waste stream to provide refueling capabilities, the project was designed to examine the conversion of plastics into methane.

Captain, Janine↗