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At least 1,315 records · Page 73

Insights into spatial sensitivities of ice mass response to environmental change from the SeaRISE ice sheet modeling project II

The Sea-level Response to Ice Sheet Evolution (SeaRISE) effort explores the sensitivity of the current generation of ice sheet models to external forcing to gain insight into the potential future contribution to sea level from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. All participating models simulated the ice sheet response to three types of external forcings: a change in oceanic condition, a warmer atmospheric environment, and enhanced basal lubrication. Here an analysis of the spatial response of the Greenland ice sheet is presented, and the impact of model physics and spin-up on the projections is explored. Although the modeled responses are not always homogeneous, consistent spatial trends emerge from the ensemble analysis, indicating distinct vulnerabilities of the Greenland ice sheet. There are clear response patterns associated with each forcing, and a similar mass loss at the full ice sheet scale will result in different mass losses at the regional scale, as well as distinct thickness changes over the ice sheet. All forcings lead to an increased mass loss for the coming centuries, with increased basal lubrication and warmer ocean conditions affecting mainly outlet glaciers, while the impacts of atmospheric forcings affect the whole ice sheet.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Kinetic mixing, dark photons and extra dimensions. Part III. Brane localized dark matter

Extra dimensions have proven to be a very useful tool in constructing new physics models. In earlier work, we began investigating toy models for the 5-D analog of the kinetic mixing/vector portal scenario where the interactions of dark matter, taken to be, e.g., a complex scalar, with the brane-localized fields of the Standard Model (SM) are mediated by a massive U(1) D dark photon living in the bulk. These models were shown to have many novel features differentiating them from their 4-D analogs and which, in several cases, avoided some well-known 4-D model building constraints. However, these gains were obtained at the cost of the introduction of a fair amount of model complexity, e.g., dark matter Kaluza-Klein excitations. In the present paper, we consider an alternative setup wherein the dark matter and the dark Higgs, responsible for U(1) D breaking, are both localized to the ‘dark’ brane at the opposite end of the 5-D interval from where the SM fields are located with only the dark photon now being a 5-D field. The phenomenology of such a setup is explored for both flat and warped extra dimensions and compared to the previous more complex models.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Predicting Fluid Flow Regime, Permeability, and Diffusivity in Mudrocks from Multiscale Pore Characterisation

In geoenergy applications, mudrocks prevent fluids to leak from temporary (H 2 , CH 4 ) or permanent (CO 2 , radioactive waste) storage/disposal sites and serve as a source and reservoir for unconventional oil and gas. Understanding transport properties integrated with dominant fluid flow mechanisms in mudrocks is essential to better predict the performance of mudrocks within these applications. In this study, small-angle neutron scattering (SANS) experiments were conducted on 71 samples from 13 different sets of mudrocks across the globe to capture the pore structure of nearly the full pore size spectrum (2 nm–5 μm). We develop fractal models to predict transport properties (permeability and diffusivity) based on the SANS-derived pore size distributions. The results indicate that transport phenomena in mudrocks are intrinsically pore size-dependent. Depending on hydrostatic pore pressures, transition flow develops in micropores, slip flow in meso- and macropores, and continuum flow in larger macropores. Fluid flow regimes progress towards larger pore sizes during reservoir depletion or smaller pore sizes during fluid storage, so when pressure is decreased or increased, respectively. Capturing the heterogeneity of mudrocks by considering fractal dimension and tortuosity fractal dimension for defined pore size ranges, fractal models integrate apparent permeability with slip flow, Darcy permeability with continuum flow, and gas diffusivity with diffusion flow in the matrix. This new model of pore size-dependent transport and integrated transport properties using fractal models yields a systematic approach that can also inform multiscale multi-physics models to better understand fluid flow and transport phenomena in mudrocks on the reservoir and basin scale.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

The DOE E3SM coupled model version 1: Overview and evaluation at standard resolution

This work documents the first version of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) new Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SMv1). We focus on the standard resolution of the fully--coupled physical model designed to address DOE mission-relevant water cycle questions. Its components include atmosphere and land (110km grid spacing), ocean and sea ice (60km in the mid-latitudes and 30km at the equator and poles), and river transport (55km) models. This base configuration will also serve as a foundation for additional configurations exploring higher horizontal resolution as well as augmented capabilities in the form of biogeochemistry and cryosphere configurations. The performance of E3SMv1 is evaluated by means of a standard set of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 Diagnosis, Evaluation, and Characterization of Klima (CMIP6 DECK) simulations consisting of a long pre-industrial control, historical simulations (ensembles of fully coupled and prescribed SSTs) as well as idealized CO 2 forcing simulations. The model performs well overall with biases typical of other CMIP-class models, although the simulated Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation is weaker than many CMIP-class models. While the E3SMv1 historical ensemble captures the bulk of the observed warming between pre-industrial (1850) and present-day, the trajectory of the warming diverges from observations in the second half of the 20th century with a period of delayed warming followed by an excessive warming trend. Using a two-layer energy balance model, we attribute this divergence to the model's strong aerosol-related effective radiative forcing (ERF ari+aci = -1.65 W m -2 ) and high equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS = 5.3 K).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Quantum simulation of fundamental particles and forces

Key static and dynamic properties of matter — from creation in the Big Bang to evolution into subatomic and astrophysical environments — arise from the underlying fundamental quantum fields of the standard model and their effective descriptions. However, the simulation of these properties lies beyond the capabilities of classical computation alone. Advances in quantum technologies have improved control over quantum entanglement and coherence to the point at which robust simulations of quantum fields are anticipated in the foreseeable future. In this Perspective article, we discuss the emerging area of quantum simulations of standard-model physics, outlining the challenges and opportunities for progress in the context of nuclear and high-energy physics.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

SMEFT matching to Z ’ models at dimension eight

Heavy neutral gauge bosons arise in many motivated models of beyond the Standard Model Physics. Experimental searches require that such gauge bosons are above the TeV scale in most models which means that the tools of effective field theories, in particular the Standard Model effective field theory (SMEFT), are useful. We match the SMEFT to models with heavy Z ’ bosons, including effects of dimension-8 operators, and consider the restrictions on model parameters from electroweak precision measurements and from Drell Yan invariant mass distributions and forward-backward asymmetry, 𝐴FB, measurements at the LHC. The results demonstrate the model dependence of the resulting limits on SMEFT coefficients and the relatively small impact of including dimension-8 matching. In all cases, the limits from invariant mass distributions are stronger than from 𝐴FB measurements in the Z ’ models we consider.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Performance-limiting formation dynamics in mixed-halide perovskites

Wide-bandgap (WBG) mixed-halide perovskites as the front cell absorber are accomplishing perovskite-based tandem solar cells with over 29% power conversion efficiency. However, their large voltage deficits limit their ultimate performance. Only a handful of studies probe the fundamental mechanisms underlying the voltage deficits, which remain an unsolved challenge in the field. In this study, we investigate the formation dynamics and defect physics of WBG mixed-halide perovskites in contrast with their corresponding triiodide-based perovskites. Our results show that the inclusion of bromide introduced a halide homogenization process that occurs during the perovskite growth stage from an initial bromide-rich phase toward the final target stoichiometry. We further elucidated a physical model that correlates the role of bromide with the formation dynamics, defect physics, and eventual optoelectronic properties of the film. This work provides a fundamental and unique perspective toward understanding the performance-limiting factors affecting WBG mixed-halide perovskites.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

The multi-faceted inverted harmonic oscillator: Chaos and complexity

The harmonic oscillator is the paragon of physical models; conceptually and computationally simple, yet rich enough to teach us about physics on scales that span classical mechanics to quantum field theory. This multifaceted nature extends also to its inverted counterpart, in which the oscillator frequency is analytically continued to pure imaginary values. In this article we probe the inverted harmonic oscillator (IHO) with recently developed quantum chaos diagnostics such as the out-of-time-order correlator (OTOC) and the circuit complexity. In particular, we study the OTOC for the displacement operator of the IHO with and without a non-Gaussian cubic perturbation to explore genuine and quasi scrambling respectively. In addition, we compute the full quantum Lyapunov spectrum for the inverted oscillator, finding a paired structure among the Lyapunov exponents. We also use the Heisenberg group to compute the complexity for the time evolved displacement operator, which displays chaotic behaviour. Finally, we extended our analysis to N-inverted harmonic oscillators to study the behaviour of complexity at the different timescales encoded in dissipation, scrambling and asymptotic regimes.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Enhancements to the RAVEN code in FY16

The RAVEN code has been under development at the Idaho National Laboratory since 2012. Its main goal is to create a multi-purpose platform for the deploying of all the capabilities needed for Probabilistic Risk Assessment, uncertainty quantification, data mining analysis and optimization studies. RAVEN has currently reached a good level of maturity in terms of deployed state-of-art and advanced capabilities. The main subject of this report is to show the activities that have been recently accomplished: • Implementation of ensemble modeling for time-series, and • initial implementation of model validation for surrogate models, and • advanced visualization capability for topology based data analysis The development of ensemble modeling for time-series has been performed in order to begin tackling the needs of those RISMC applications that need to communicate 1-Dimensional information (e.g. power histories, etc.) among different models. In this document the implementation details and an application example is reported. The second subject of this report is about the initial development of methods, within the RAVEN framework, to assess the validity of the predictive capabilities of surrogate models. Indeed, after the construction of a surrogate tight to a certain physical model, it is crucial to assess the goodness of its representation, in order to be confident with its prediction. In this initial activity, a cross-validation technique has been employed. This report will highlight the implementation details and proof its correct implementation by an application example. The final subject of this report is about the implementation of advanced visualization capability in RAVEN, for interactive data analysis. Indeed, RAVEN offers several post-processing capabilities that can structurally decompose data extracted from experimental results offering both data clustering/partitioning and dimensionality reduction techniques. A disadvantage of the workflow available in RAVEN is that it treats these as black box operations and the user is expected to know specific information about their data including the number of partitions to expect in some cases or the “correct” parameter settings for a particular algorithm. In order to overcome this limitation, it has been added an interactive user interface that can be run in RAVEN to explore different parameter settings on the fly specifically for the topological post-processor and allows the user to explore the data interactively. The design of this user interface is generalizable to other algorithms and can be used as a model to generate more dynamic and user-friendly visualization capabilities within RAVEN.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Physics-Based Probabilistic Model of the Effects of Ionizing Radiation on Polymeric Insulators of Electric Cables used in Nuclear Power Plants

This report describes the results of a 3-year project aimed at developing a probabilistic predictive model of degradation of insulation of cables installed in nuclear power plants where heat and radiation are two major environmental stressors. The developed models have been developed based on exploring fundamental physical and chemical processes involved and validated by experimental data from open literature and data collected from experiments conducted as part of this study. The report comprises of two parts: Volume I and Volume II. In Volume I, degradation of three most widely-used insulation materials, cross-linked polyethylene (XLPE or PEX), ethylene propylene rubber (EPR), and silicone rubber (SIR) are discussed. Based on the identified degradation mechanisms and kinetics of the cable insulation, physics-based models have been proposed to quantitatively define and predict the degree of the degradation for functional failures of concern. Various sets of experimental data from the literature were used to help understand the phenomenon involved and to validate the models developed. Further validations were performed with data collected from experiments conducted as part of the research project. Methods and results of the experimental work are detailed in Volume II. These experimental results were found to be consistent with data reported in the literature and support the proposed models. The models developed here can probabilistically predict the lifetime of the cable insulation used in nuclear power plants.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Characterization of Extremes and Compound Impacts: Applications of Machine Learning and Interpretable Neural Networks

Focal Area: This white paper responds to Focal area III by exploring data fusion, learning and explainable AI methods in characterizing hydrological extremes and interconnections. It also addresses Focal area II by using probabilistic AI and ensemble ML for predicting extremes and compound extremes. Science Challenge: A key question associated with the integrated water (or hydrological) cycle grand challenge in the Earth and Environmental Systems Sciences Division (EESSD) strategic plan, is how the frequency and intensity of hydrological events will change. Prediction of the tail behavior (extremes) of the hydrological cycle is especially challenging, because of their stochasticity and low probability. These extreme events and their compound impacts have significant societal and economic consequences. It is anticipated for the next-generation Earth System models (ESMs), that model predictability of the water cycle will improve with increased resolution (e.g., regionally refined E3SM), advanced software and computational architectures, and improved model physics based on the data from ARM measurements and high-fidelity models. However, the challenges for predictability of low-probability high-impact extreme events will unlikely be alleviated with conventional modeling and data-driven approaches, as ESMs are calibrated largely for capturing the high-frequency mean climate states. Recent AI and ML applications have shown great potential in quantifying well-defined climate extremes (e.g., supervised learning of tropical cyclones/atmospheric rivers by ClimateNet1) but few efforts are dedicated to compound events, extreme drivers and uncertainty estimation. We envision the opportunity to develop and apply ML and interpretable AI methods extended on the existing efforts, specifically, for: (1) identification of compound extremes, (2) diagnosing drivers of extremes, (3) bias correction in extreme predictions and (4) probabilistic modeling of extremes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Multi-fidelity thermal modeling of laser powder bed additive manufacturing

Laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) Additive manufacturing (AM) has attracted interest as an agile method of building production metal parts to reduce design-build-test cycle times for systems. However, predicting part performance is difficult due to inherent process variabilities. This makes qualification challenging. Computational process models have attempted to address some of these challenges, including mesoscale, full physics models and reduced fidelity conduction models. The goal of this work is credible multi-fidelity modeling of the LPBF process by investigating methods for estimating the error between models of two different fidelities. Two methods of error estimation are investigated, adjoint-based error estimation and Bayesian calibration. Adjoint-based error estimation is found to effectively bounding the error between the two models, but with very conservative bounds, making predictions highly uncertain. Bayesian parameter calibration applied to conduction model heat source parameters is found to effectively bound the observed error between the models for melt pool morphology quantities of interest. However, the calibrations do not effectively bound the error in heat distribution.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Celeritas R&D Report: Accelerating Geant4

Celeritas is a new Monte Carlo (MC) detector simulation code designed for computationally intensive applications on high-performance heterogeneous architectures. In the past two years Celeritas has advanced from prototyping a Graphics Processing Unit (GPU)-based single physics model in infinite medium to implementing a full set of electromagnetic (EM) physics processes in complex geometries. The current release of Celeritas, version 0.4, has incorporated full device-based navigation, an event loop in the presence of magnetic fields, and detector hit scoring. New functionality incorporates a scheduler to offload electromagnetic physics to the GPU within a Geant4-driven simulation, enabling straightforward integration of Celeritas into the high energy physics (HEP) experimental frameworks CMSSW and ATLAS FullSimLight. On the Perlmutter supercomputer, Celeritas performs EM physics between 3× and 18× faster using the machine’s Nvidia GPUs compared to using only CPUs, corresponding to an electrical power efficiency up to a factor of 5. When running a multithreaded Geant4 ATLAS test beam application with full hadronic physics, using Celeritas to accelerate the EM physics results in an overall simulation speedup of 1.7–2.2× on GPU and 1.2× on CPU. In a CMS test application using tt¯ events and the prototype Run 4 configuration, compared to Geant4 CPU, Celeritas with a Nvidia A100 improves overall throughput up to a factor of 2.7× but cannot be efficiently shared with more than 8 cores.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

The role of radiation-dynamics interaction in regional numerical weather prediction

The role of radiation-dynamics interaction in regional numerical weather prediction of severe storm environment and mesoscale convective systems over the United States is researched. Based upon the earlier numerical model simulation experiments, it is believed that such interaction can have a profound impact on the dynamics and thermodynamics of regional weather systems. The research will be carried out using real-data model forecast experiments performed on the Cray-X/MP computer. The forecasting system to be used is a comprehensive mesoscale prediction system which includes analysis and initialization, the dynamic model, and the post-forecast diagnosis codes. The model physics are currently undergoing many improvements in parameterizing radiation processes in the model atmosphere. The forecast experiments in conjunction with in-depth model verification and diagnosis are aimed at a quantitative understanding of the interaction between atmospheric radiation and regional dynamical processes in mesoscale models as well as in nature. Thus, significant advances in regional numerical weather prediction can be made. Results shall also provide valuable information for observational designs in the area of remote sensing techniques to study the characteristics of air-land thermal interaction and moist processes under various atmospheric conditions.

Chang, Chia-Bo↗

Radiation Effects on Flow Characteristics in Combustion Chambers

A JANNAF sponsored workshop was held to discuss the importance and role of radiative heat transfer in rocket combustion chambers. The potential impact of radiative transfer on hardware design, reliability, and performance was discussed. The current state of radiative transfer prediction capability in CFD modeling was reviewed and concluded to be substantially lacking in both the physical models used and the radiative property data available. There is a clear need to begin to establish a data base for making radiation calculations in rocket combustion chambers. A natural starting point for this effort would be the NASA thermochemical equilibrium code (CEC).

Brewster, M. Q.↗

Model reduction in a subset of the original states

A model reduction method is investigated to provide a smaller structural dynamic model for subsequent structural control design. A structural dynamic model is assumed to be derived from finite element analysis. It is first converted into the state space form, and is further reduced by the internal balancing method. Through the co-ordinate transformation derived from the states that are deleted during reduction, the reduced model is finally expressed with the states that are members of the original states. Therefore, the states in the final reduced model represent the degrees of freedom of the nodes that are selected by the designer. The procedure provides a more practical implementation of model reduction for applications in which specific nodes, such as sensor and/or actuator attachment points, are to be retained in the reduced model. Thus, it ensures that the reduced model is under the same input and output condition as the original physical model. The procedure is applied to two simple examples and comparisons are made between the full and reduced order models. The method can be applied to a linear, continuous and time-invariant model of structural dynamics with nonproportional viscous damping.

Yae, K. H.↗

SSME Condition Monitoring Using Neural Networks and Plume Spectral Signatures

For a variety of reasons, condition monitoring of the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) has become an important concern for both ground tests and in-flight operation. The complexities of the SSME suggest that active, real-time condition monitoring should be performed to avoid large-scale or catastrophic failure of the engine. In 1986, the SSME became the subject of a plume emission spectroscopy project at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC). Since then, plume emission spectroscopy has recorded many nominal tests and the qualitative spectral features of the SSME plume are now well established. Significant discoveries made with both wide-band and narrow-band plume emission spectroscopy systems led MSFC to develop the Optical Plume Anomaly Detection (OPAD) system. The OPAD system is designed to provide condition monitoring of the SSME during ground-level testing. The operational health of the engine is achieved through the acquisition of spectrally resolved plume emissions and the subsequent identification of abnormal emission levels in the plume indicative of engine erosion or component failure. Eventually, OPAD, or a derivative of the technology, could find its way on to an actual space vehicle and provide in-flight engine condition monitoring. This technology step, however, will require miniaturized hardware capable of processing plume spectral data in real-time. An objective of OPAD condition monitoring is to determine how much of an element is present in the SSME plume. The basic premise is that by knowing the element and its concentration, this could be related back to the health of components within the engine. For example, an abnormal amount of silver in the plume might signify increased wear or deterioration of a particular bearing in the engine. Once an anomaly is identified, the engine could be shut down before catastrophic failure occurs. Currently, element concentrations in the plume are determined iteratively with the help of a non-linear computer code called SPECTRA, developed at the USAF Arnold Engineering Development Center. Ostensibly, the code produces intensity versus wavelength plots (i.e., spectra) when inputs such as element concentrations, reaction temperature, and reaction pressure are provided. However, in order to provide a higher-level analysis, element concentration is not specified explicitly as an input. Instead, two quantum variables, number density and broadening parameter, are used. Past experience with OPAD data analysis has revealed that the region of primary interest in any SSME plume spectrum lies in the wavelength band of 3300 A to 4330 A. Experience has also revealed that some elements, such as iron, cobalt and nickel, cause multiple peaks over the chosen wavelength range whereas other elements (magnesium, for example) have a few, relatively isolated peaks in the chosen wavelength range. Iteration with SPECTRA as a part of OPAD data analysis is an incredibly labor intensive task and not one to be performed by hand. What is really needed is the "inverse" of the computer code but the mathematical model for the inverse mapping is tenuous at best. However, building generalized models based upon known input/output mappings while ignoring details of the governing physical model is possible using neural networks. Thus the objective of the research project described herein was to quickly and accurately predict combustion temperature and element concentrations (i.e., number density and broadening parameter) from a given spectrum using a neural network. In other words, a neural network had to be developed that would provide a generalized "inverse" of the computer code SPECTRA.

Hopkins, Randall↗

Aerothermodynamics of Pyrolizing Surfaces in Hypersonic Rarefied Flows

Direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) calculations of rarefied flows about entry bodies typically employ a fixed surface temperature or a radiative-equilibrium energy balance to compute that temperature. Such boundary conditions neglect any effects of heat capacitance and heat conduction in the spacecraft heat shield and, therefore, provide an upper bound for the surface temperature. Such calculations also neglect pyrolysis from the heat shield which can be significant for a high-energy incident flow at very low densities. Accurate prediction of both heating and aerodynamic forces requires including pyrolysis and surface heat transfer in the models for gas-surface interaction employed in DSMC methods. Although these physical models have long appeared in various continuum flow calculation codes, they have only recently appeared in DSMC codes which are required to simulate rarefied flows during entry at high altitudes. In the current implementation, routines from the widely distributed Charring Material Thermal Response and Ablation (CMA) program are coupled into a DSMC code to calculate the one-dimensional heat transfer into the carbon phenolic heat shield at each point on a vehicle surface. Temperature-dependent material properties, surface re-radiation, and in-depth pyrolysis were included in the calculation, but surface ablation was neglected. Sample calculations for entry of the Galileo probe into the atmosphere of Jupiter demonstrate that including pyrolysis in the model leads to significant differences in predicted aerodynamics. Granted, the drag coefficient does not depend strongly on the surface temperature which can itself be significantly below the radiative equilibrium value during entry. However, the surface mass flux due to pyrolysis of the material is significant once the probe drops to altitudes characterized by transition flow. This leads to a noticeable increase in drag and a decrease in heating compared to a body without pyrolysis.

Haas, Brian L.↗