Contribution of Modeling Differences to Systematic Errors of the Celestial Reference Frame: Modest/Calc/Gloria
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A viscoelastic model for seismic attenuation using fractal mechanical networks
SUMMARY Seismic attenuation (quantified by the quality factor Q) has a significant impact on the seismic waveforms, especially in the fluid-saturated rocks. This dissipative process can be phenomenologically represented by viscoelastic models. Previous seismological studies show that the Q value of Earth media exhibits a nearly frequency-independent behaviour (often referred to as constant-Q in literature) in the seismic frequency range. Such attenuation can be described by the mathematical Kjartansson constant-Q model, which lacks of a physical representation in the viscoelastic sense. Inspired by the fractal nature of the pore fluid distribution in patchy-saturated rocks, here we propose two fractal mechanical network (FMN) models, that is, a fractal tree model and a quasi-fractal ladder model, to phenomenologically represent the frequency-independent Q behaviour. As with the classic viscoelastic models, the FMN models are composed of mechanical elements (spring and dashpots) arranged in different hierarchical patterns. A particular parametrization of each model can produce the same complex modulus as in the Kjartansson model, which leads to the constant-Q. Applying the theory to several typical rock samples, we find that the seismic attenuation signature of these rocks can be accurately represented by either one of the FMN models. Besides, we demonstrate that the ladder model in particular exhibits the realistic multiscale fractal structure of the saturated rocks. Therefore, the FMN models as a proxy could provide a new way to estimate the microscopic rock structure property from macroscopic seismic attenuation observation.
Geochemistry & Geophysics↗
A comprehensive strategy for stable, high productivity cultivation of microalgae with controllable biomass composition
This project was performed primarily as a partnership between three Universities – The University of Toledo (UToledo), Montana State University (MSU) and The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill (UNC). North Carolina State University also contributed to the project through a sub-subcontract. The project developed fundamental and applied knowhow for cultivation systems that are not restricted by (i) proximate availability of flue gas or other high concentration CO 2 sources and (ii) the energy and infrastructure burden to deliver CO 2 over long distances. To overcome these constraints, this project focused on cultivation of alkaliphilic algal cultures in high pH, high alkalinity media (pH>10, alkalinity >100mEq) and demonstrated high biomass productivity, improvement of biomass composition for fuel production, and culture stability. The high media alkalinity ensured availability of sufficient HCO 3 - in solution for high rates of carbon fixation while the high pH of the media facilitated rapid scavenging of atmospheric CO 2 . Overall, the direct air capture rates (DAC) in our system were sufficient to achieve high biomass productivities using atmospheric CO 2 alone. The project also developed and validated toolkits related to metabolic flux modeling and microbiome characterization.
09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
Model reduction for systems with integrators
The reduction algorithm for systems with integrators is derived. The algorithm is based on balancing the antigrammians and has the same computational effectiveness as the regular balancing procedure. It was applied to the reduction of the NASA Deep Space Network antenna model. As a result, the 90-state model has been reduced to a 27-state model, which preserves the full-model properties.
Gawronski, Wodek↗
Mitigation of spatial nonstationarity with vision transformers
Spatial nonstationarity, the location variance of features’ statistical distributions, is ubiquitous in many natural settings. For example, in geological reservoirs rock matrix porosity varies vertically due to geomechanical compaction trends, in mineral deposits grades vary due to sedimentation and concentration processes, in hydrology rainfall varies due to the atmosphere and topography interactions, and in metallurgy crystalline structures vary due to differential cooling. Conventional geostatistical modeling workflows rely on the assumption of stationarity to be able to model spatial features for geostatistical inference. Nevertheless, this is often not a realistic assumption when dealing with nonstationary spatial data and this has motivated a variety of nonstationary spatial modeling workflows such as trend and residual decomposition, cosimulation with secondary features, and spatial segmentation and independent modeling over stationary subdomains. The advent of deep learning technologies has enabled new workflows for modeling spatial relationships. However, there is a paucity of demonstrated best practice and general guidance on mitigation of spatial nonstationarity with deep learning in the geospatial context. We demonstrate the impact of two common types of geostatistical spatial nonstationarity on deep learning model prediction performance and propose the mitigation of such impacts using self-attention (vision transformer) models. We demonstrate the utility of vision transformers for the mitigation of nonstationarity with relative errors as low as 10%, exceeding the performance of alternative deep learning methods such as convolutional neural networks. We establish best practice by demonstrating the ability of self-attention networks for modeling large-scale spatial relationships in the presence of commonly observed geospatial nonstationarity.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
Data-Driven Learning of Nonautonomous Systems
In this work, we present a numerical framework for recovering unknown nonautonomous dynamical systems with time-dependent inputs. To circumvent the difficulty presented by the nonautonomous nature of the system, our method transforms the solution state into piecewise integration of the system over a discrete set of time instances. The time-dependent inputs are then locally parameterized by using a proper model, for example, polynomial regression, in the pieces determined by the time instances. This transforms the original system into a piecewise parametric system that is locally time invariant. We then design a deep neural network structure to learn the local models. Once the network model is constructed, it can be iteratively used over time to conduct global system prediction. We provide theoretical analysis of our algorithm and present a number of numerical examples to demonstrate the effectiveness of the method.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Data-Driven Learning of Non-Autonomous Systems
We present a numerical framework for recovering unknown non-autonomous dynamical systems with time-dependent inputs. To circumvent the difficulty presented by the non-autonomous nature of the system, our method transforms the solution state into piecewise integration of the system over a discrete set of time instances. The time-dependent inputs are then locally parameterized by using a proper model, for example, polynomial regression, in the pieces determined by the time instances. This transforms the original system into a piecewise parametric system that is locally time invariant. We then design a deep neural network structure to learn the local models. Once the network model is constructed, it can be iteratively used over time to conduct global system prediction. We provide theoretical analysis of our algorithm and present a number of numerical examples to demonstrate the effectiveness of the method.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Physics-informed machine-learning model of temperature evolution under solid phase processes
We model temperature dynamics during Shear Assisted Proccess Extrusion (ShAPE), a solid phase process that plasticizes feedstock with a rotating tool and subsequently extrudes it into a consolidated tube, rod, or wire. Control of temperature is critical during ShAPE processing to avoid liquefaction, ensure smooth extrusion, and develop desired material properties in the extruded products. Accurate modeling of the complicated thermo-mechanical feedbacks between process inputs, material temperature, and heat generation presents a significant barrier to predictive modeling and process design. In particular, connecting micro-structural scale mechanisms of heat generation to macro-scale predictions of temperature can become computationally intractable. In this work we use a neural network (NN) model of heat generation to bridge this gap, by combining it with a simplified model of the temperature dynamics due to conduction and convection to capture the macro scale evolution of temperature. We inform the construction of the NN heat generation model using crystal plasticity simulations at the micro-structural scale to model the effects of process inputs on generation of heat. We achieved close fits of the temperature dynamics model to a diverse experimental data-set. Further, the relationships learned by the NN model between process inputs and heat generation showed qualitative agreement with those predicted by crystal plasticity simulations.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Evaluation of MERRA-2-Based Ozone Profile Simulations with the Global Ozonesonde Network
Chemical transport model (CTM) hindcasts of ozone (O3) are useful for filling in observational gaps and providing context for observed O3 variability and trends. We use global networks of ozonesonde stations to evaluate the O3 profiles in two simulations running versions of the NASA Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) chemical mechanism. Both simulations are tied to the NASA Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) meteorological reanalysis: 1) The GMI CTM, and 2) The MERRA-2 GMI Replay (M2 GMI). Both simulations start in 1980, and are compared against >50,000 ozonesonde profiles from 37 global stations from the tropics to the poles. The comparisons allow us to evaluate how the Replay technique affects modeled O3 distribution, how an updated chemical mechanism in the GMI CTM affects simulated tropospheric O3 amounts, and how observed O3 distributions compare to the full set of model output. In general, M2 GMI O3 is ~10% higher than in the GMI CTM, and shows global near-surface and tropical upper troposphere/lower stratosphere (UT/LS) high biases. The updated chemical mechanism in the GMI CTM reduces these high biases. Both simulations show similar negative biases in tropical free-tropospheric O3, especially during typical biomass burning seasons. The simulations are highly-correlated with ozonesonde measurements, particularly in the UT/LS (r > 0.8), showing the ability of MERRA-2 to capture tropopause height variations. Both simulations show improved correlations with ozonesonde data and smaller O3 biases in recent years. We expect to use the sonde/model comparisons to diagnose causes of disagreement and to gauge the feasibility of calculating multidecadal O3 trends from the model output.
Stauffer, Ryan↗
Evaluation of MERRA-2-Based Ozone Profile Simulations with the Global Ozonesonde Network
Chemical transport model (CTM) hindcasts of ozone (O3) are useful for filling in observational gaps and providing context for observed O3 variability and trends. We use global networks of ozonesonde stations to evaluate the O3 profiles in two simulations running versions of the NASA Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) chemical mechanism. Both simulations are tied to the NASA Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) meteorological reanalysis: 1) The GMI CTM, and 2) The MERRA-2 GMI Replay (M2 GMI). Both simulations start in 1980, and are compared against >50,000 ozonesonde profiles from 37 global stations from the tropics to the poles. The comparisons allow us to evaluate how the Replay technique affects modeled O3 distribution, how an updated chemical mechanism in the GMI CTM affects simulated tropospheric O3 amounts, and how observed O3 distributions compare to the full set of model output. In general, M2 GMI O3 is ~10% higher than in the GMI CTM, and shows global near-surface and tropical upper troposphere/lower stratosphere (UT/LS) high biases. The updated chemical mechanism in the GMI CTM reduces these high biases. Both simulations show similar negative biases in tropical free-tropospheric O3, especially during typical biomass burning seasons. The simulations are highly-correlated with ozonesonde measurements, particularly in the UT/LS (r > 0.8), showing the ability of MERRA-2 to capture tropopause height variations. Both simulations show improved correlations with ozonesonde data and smaller O3 biases in recent years. We expect to use the sonde/model comparisons to diagnose causes of disagreement and to gauge the feasibility of calculating multidecadal O3 trends from the model output.
Stauffer, Ryan M.↗
Enhanced Boundary Layer Height Detection Using Ceilometer, Surface Meteorology, and Radiation Products With a Random Forest Ensemble Method
This study develops and evaluates a Random Forest (RF) model for estimating planetary boundary layer height (PBLH) using 9 years of data from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Southern Great Plains (ARM SGP) user facility, with potential application in the NOAA Surface Radiation (SURFRAD) Network. The model integrates ceilometer, surface meteorology, and radiation measurements, and is trained using thermodynamic PBLH estimates derived from radiosondes. This approach aims to bridge gaps between aerosol-based and thermodynamic-based PBLH estimates. The RF model outperformed traditional methods during daytime and better captured transition periods, demonstrating improved accuracy and robustness. At ARM SGP, it showed a substantial reduction in both bias and RMSE, with a bias near zero (−4.9 m) compared with traditional Haar Wavelet (HW) (70.9 m) and Vaisala BL-View software (124.1 m), and an RMSE of 303.2 m, lower than both BL-View (566.9 m) and HW (404.6 m). During daytime hours, RF consistently outperformed both alternatives, maintaining lower bias and RMSE across all periods. At a second evaluation site, RF achieved the lowest overall RMSE (323.7 m), similar to HW (326.4 m) and significantly better than BL-View (738.3 m). However, all models showed reduced accuracy under stable nighttime conditions, limiting the reliability of PBLH estimates. Key predictors for the model included the lifting condensation level height (LCLH), aerosol gradients, and month for seasonal variability. The study underscores the potential of integrating machine learning with multiple data sets such as surface energy and thermodynamic data to advance PBLH estimation.
boundary layer height↗
Advancing Methodologies for Applying Machine Learning and Evaluating Spatiotemporal Models of Fine Particulate Matter (PM 2.5 ) Using Satellite Data Over Large Regions
Reconstructing the distribution of fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) in space and time, even far from ground monitoring sites, is an important exposure science contribution to epidemiologic analyses of PM 2.5 health impacts. Flexible statistical methods for prediction have demonstrated the integration of satellite observations with other predictors, yet these algorithms are susceptible to overfitting the spatiotemporal structure of the training datasets. We present a new approach for predicting PM 2.5 using machine-learning methods and evaluating prediction models for the goal of making predictions where they were not previously available. We apply extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) modeling to predict daily PM 2.5 on a 1 x 1 km 2 resolution for a 13 state region in the Northeastern USA for the years 2000–2015 using satellite-derived aerosol optical depth and implement a recursive feature selection to develop a parsimonious model. We demonstrate excellent predictions of withheld observations but also contrast an RMSE of 3.11 μg/m 3 in our spatial cross-validation withholding nearby sites versus an overfit RMSE of 2.10 μg/m 3 using a more conventional random ten-fold splitting of the dataset. As the field of exposure science moves forward with the use of advanced machine-learning approaches for spatiotemporal modeling of air pollutants, our results show the importance of addressing data leakage in training, overfitting to spatiotemporal structure, and the impact of the predominance of ground monitoring sites in dense urban sub-networks on model evaluation. The strengths of our resultant modeling approach for exposure in epidemiologic studies of PM 2.5 include improved efficiency, parsimony, and interpretability with robust validation while still accommodating complex spatiotemporal relationships.
air pollution↗
Surrogate-driven design optimization with uncertainty constraints in Monte Carlo simulations
In multi-objective design tasks, the computational cost increases rapidly when high-fidelity simulations are used to evaluate objective functions. Surrogate models help mitigate this cost by approximating the simulation output, simplifying the design process. However, under high uncertainty, surrogate models trained on noisy data can produce inaccurate predictions, as their performance depends heavily on the quality of training data. This study investigates the impact of data uncertainty on two multi-objective design problems modelled using Monte Carlo transport simulations: a neutron moderator and an ion-to-neutron converter. For each, a grid search was performed using five different tally uncertainty levels to generate training data for neural network surrogate models. These models were then optimized using NSGA-III. The recovered Pareto-fronts were analyzed across uncertainty levels: in the moderator problem, normalized hypervolume dropped from 0.886 at 1.0% uncertainty to 0.748 at 10% uncertainty, while in the converter problem it remained near 0.50 for all cases. Average simulation times were also compared to evaluate the trade-off between accuracy and computational cost. Results show that the influence of simulation uncertainty is strongly problem-dependent. In the neutron moderator case, higher uncertainties led to exaggerated objective sensitivities and distorted Pareto-fronts, reducing normalized hypervolume. In contrast, the ion-to-neutron converter task was less affected—low-fidelity simulations produced results similar to those from high-fidelity data. These findings suggest that a fixed-fidelity approach is not optimal. Surrogate models can recover the Pareto-front under noisy conditions, and multi-fidelity studies help identify suitable uncertainty levels for each problem to balance efficiency and accuracy.
07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗
Physics-Informed Machine Learning for Epidemiological Models
One challenge of using compartmental SEIR models for public health planning is the difficulty in manually tuning parameters to capture behavior reflected in the real-world data. This team conducted initial, exploratory analysis of a novel technique to use physics-informed machine learning tools to rapidly develop data-driven models for physical systems. This machine learning approach may be used to perform data assimilation of compartment models which account for unknown interactions between geospatial domains (i.e. diffusion processes coupling across neighborhoods/counties/states/etc.). Results presented here are early, proof-of-concept ideas that demonstrate initial success in using a physically informed neural network (PINN) model to assimilate data in a compartmental epidemiology model. The results demonstrate initial success and warrant further research and development.
60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
Quantum Ising model on (2+1)-dimensional anti–de Sitter space using tensor networks
We study the quantum Ising model on (2+1)-dimensional anti-de Sitter space using matrix product states (MPS) and matrix product operators (MPOs). We explore the bulk phase diagram of the theory on regular tessellations of hyperbolic space with coordination number seven and find disordered and ordered phases separated by a phase transition. We find that the boundary-boundary spin correlation function exhibits power law scaling deep in the disordered phase of the Ising model consistent with holography. At the critical point, we find the boundary entanglement entropy scales logarithmically with subsystem size but away from this, we see a linear scaling. In comparison, the full system exhibits a volume law scaling, which is expected in chaotic and/or highly connected systems. We also measure out of time ordered correlators (OTOCs) to explore the scrambling behavior of the theory.
Quantum spin models↗
High–Resolution Maps of Near–Surface Permafrost for Three Watersheds on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska Derived From Machine Learning
Permafrost soils are a critical component of the global carbon cycle and are locally important because they regulate the hydrologic flux from uplands to rivers. Furthermore, degradation of permafrost soils causes land surface subsidence, damaging infrastructure that is crucial for local communities. Regional and hemispherical maps of permafrost are too coarse to resolve distributions at a scale relevant to assessments of infrastructure stability or to illuminate geomorphic impacts of permafrost thaw. Here we train machine learning models to generate meter–scale maps of near–surface permafrost for three watersheds in the discontinuous permafrost region. The models were trained using ground truth determinations of near–surface permafrost presence from measurements of soil temperature and electrical resistivity. We trained three classifiers: extremely randomized trees (ERTr), support vector machines (SVM), and an artificial neural network (ANN). Model uncertainty was determined using k–fold cross validation, and the modeled extents of near–surface permafrost were compared to the observed extents at each site. At–a–site near–surface permafrost distributions predicted by the ERTr produced the highest accuracy (70%–90%). However, the transferability of the ERTr to the sites outside of the training data set was poor, with accuracies ranging from 50% to 77%. The SVM and ANN models had lower accuracies for at–a–site prediction (70%–83%), yet they had greater accuracy when transferred to the non–training site (62%–78%). These models demonstrate the potential for integrating high–resolution spatial data and machine learning models to develop maps of near–surface permafrost extent at resolutions fine enough to assess infrastructure vulnerability and landscape morphology influenced by permafrost thaw.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Quantum Networks for Resilient Power Grids: Theory and Simulated Evaluation
Quantum networks are considered the future of secure communication in the coming quantum era. Yet there lack significant efforts on developing practical quantum networks for power grids. Here, in this paper, we establish a quantum network-based power grid (QNetGrid) framework and develops a real-time, reliable, flexible, programmable, and cost-effective QNetGrid software testbed containing repeater-based quantum communication, quantum routing, real software-defined networking (SDN) switches, and real-time networked microgrids (NMs) operations. It makes the following contributions: 1) a repeater and routing based quantum network simulator (QNSim) is developed, 2) repeaters with and without quantum memories are respectively simulated in QNSim, 3) different routing scenarios in QNetGrid are investigated, 4) a real-time QNetGrid software testbed is built in RTDS incorporating QNSim and real SDN switches, and 5) various test cases are designed, and experimental results produced with the QNetGrid testbed provide valuable insights for building quantum networks in power grids.
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
A novel transfer learning framework for sorghum biomass prediction using UAV-based remote sensing data and genetic markers
Yield for biofuel crops is measured in terms of biomass, so measurements throughout the growing season are crucial in breeding programs, yet traditionally time- and labor-consuming since they involve destructive sampling. Modern remote sensing platforms, such as unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), can carry multiple sensors and collect numerous phenotypic traits with efficient, non-invasive field surveys. However, modeling the complex relationships between the observed phenotypic traits and biomass remains a challenging task, as the ground reference data are very limited for each genotype in the breeding experiment. In this study, a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) based Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) model is proposed for sorghum biomass prediction. The architecture is designed to exploit the time series remote sensing and weather data, as well as static genotypic information. As a large number of features have been derived from the remote sensing data, feature importance analysis is conducted to identify and remove redundant features. A strategy to extract representative information from high-dimensional genetic markers is proposed. To enhance generalization and minimize the need for ground reference data, transfer learning strategies are proposed for selecting the most informative training samples from the target domain. Consequently, a pre-trained model can be refined with limited training samples. Field experiments were conducted over a sorghum breeding trial planted in multiple years with more than 600 testcross hybrids. The results show that the proposed LSTM-based RNN model can achieve high accuracies for single year prediction. Further, with the proposed transfer learning strategies, a pre-trained model can be refined with limited training samples from the target domain and predict biomass with an accuracy comparable to that from a trained-from-scratch model for both multiple experiments within a given year and across multiple years.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗