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At least 1,315 records · Page 73
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

The Modified Void Nucleation and Growth Model (MNAG) for Damage Evolution in BCC Ta

A void coalescence term was proposed as an addition to the original void nucleation and growth (NAG) model to accurately describe void evolution under dynamic loading. The new model, termed as modified void nucleation and growth model (MNAG model), incorporated analytic equations to explicitly account for the evolution of the void number density and the void volume fraction (damage) during void nucleation, growth, as well as the coalescence stage. The parameters in the MNAG model were fitted to molecular dynamics (MD) shock data for single-crystal and nanocrystalline Ta, and the corresponding nucleation, growth, and coalescence rates were extracted. The results suggested that void nucleation, growth, and coalescence rates were dependent on the orientation as well as grain size. Compared to other models, such as NAG, Cocks–Ashby, Tepla, and Tonks, which were only able to reproduce early or later stage damage evolution, the MNAG model was able to reproduce all stages associated with nucleation, growth, and coalescence. The MNAG model could provide the basis for hydrodynamic simulations to improve the fidelity of the damage nucleation and evolution in 3-D microstructures.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2015

A Bayesian approach for parameter estimation and prediction using a computationally intensive model

Bayesian methods have been successful in quantifying uncertainty in physics-based problems in parameter estimation and prediction. In these cases, physical measurements y are modeled as the best fit of a physics-based model eta(theta), where theta denotes the uncertain, best input setting. Hence the statistical model is of the form y = eta(theta) + c, where epsilon accounts for measurement, and possibly other, error sources. When nonlinearity is present in eta(center dot), the resulting posterior distribution for the unknown parameters in the Bayesian formulation is typically complex and nonstandard, requiring computationally demanding computational approaches such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to produce multivariate draws from the posterior. Although generally applicable, MCMC requires thousands (or even millions) of evaluations of the physics model eta(center dot). This requirement is problematic if the model takes hours or days to evaluate. To overcome this computational bottleneck, we present an approach adapted from Bayesian model calibration. This approach combines output from an ensemble of computational model runs with physical measurements, within a statistical formulation, to carry out inference. A key component of this approach is a statistical response surface, or emulator, estimated from the ensemble of model runs. We demonstrate this approach with a case study in estimating parameters for a density functional theory model, using experimental mass/binding energy measurements from a collection of atomic nuclei. We also demonstrate how this approach produces uncertainties in predictions for recent mass measurements obtained at Argonne National Laboratory.

Higdon, Dave↗
DOE OSTI2012

A Novel Method to Incorporate the Spatial Location of the Lung Dose Distribution into Predictive Radiation Pneumonitis Modeling

Purpose: Studies have proposed that patients who receive radiation therapy to the base of the lung are more susceptible to radiation pneumonitis than patients who receive therapy to the apex of the lung. The primary purpose of the present study was to develop a novel method to incorporate the lung dose spatial information into a predictive radiation pneumonitis model. A secondary goal was to apply the method to a 547 lung cancer patient database to determine whether including the spatial information could improve the fit of our model. Methods and Materials: The three-dimensional dose distribution of each patient was mapped onto one common coordinate system. The boundaries of the coordinate system were defined by the extreme points of each individual patient lung. Once all dose distributions were mapped onto the common coordinate system, the spatial information was incorporated into a Lyman-Kutcher-Burman predictive radiation pneumonitis model. Specifically, the lung dose voxels were weighted using a user-defined spatial weighting matrix. We investigated spatial weighting matrices that linearly scaled each dose voxel according to the following orientations: superior-inferior, anterior-posterior, medial-lateral, left-right, and radial. The model parameters were fit to our patient cohort with the endpoint of severe radiation pneumonitis. The spatial dose model was compared against a conventional dose-volume model to determine whether adding a spatial component improved the fit of the model. Results: Of the 547 patients analyzed, 111 (20.3%) experienced severe radiation pneumonitis. Adding in a spatial parameter did not significantly increase the accuracy of the model for any of the weighting schemes. Conclusions: A novel method was developed to investigate the relationship between the location of the deposited lung dose and pneumonitis rate. The method was applied to a patient database, and we found that for our patient cohort, the spatial location does not influence the risk of pneumonitis.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Mathematical Model for Li-S Cell with Shuttling-Induced Capacity Loss Approximation

Lithium sulfur (Li-S) batteries have the potential to outperform the current lithium ion batteries and transform the technology of the future. However, dissolution, diffusion, and shuttling of the dissolved polysulfides result in parasitic reactions and substantial capacity loss. To provide a better understanding of the shuttling process, a 1D porous electrode mathematical model has been developed in this paper. An approximation method is used to account for the shuttling-induced capacity loss by adding an extra source/sink term in the material balance equations for the species involved in the parasitic reactions. Shuttling constants used in the source terms can be determined by fitting the model predictions to the experimental measurements. Here, the results showed that by including the approximation method, the model was able to predict the active material loss and the continuous decrease of volume fractions of Li 2 S on the cathode surface. The model sheds light on the capacity loss mechanism occurring inside the cell as a result of the shuttling of polysulfides.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Metagenomic features of bioburden serve as outcome indicators in combat extremity wounds

Abstract Battlefield injury management requires specialized care, and wound infection is a frequent complication. Challenges related to characterizing relevant pathogens further complicates treatment. Applying metagenomics to wounds offers a comprehensive path toward assessing microbial genomic fingerprints and could indicate prognostic variables for future decision support tools. Wound specimens from combat-injured U.S. service members, obtained during surgical debridements before delayed wound closure, were subjected to whole metagenome analysis and targeted enrichment of antimicrobial resistance genes. Results did not indicate a singular, common microbial metagenomic profile for wound failure, instead reflecting a complex microenvironment with varying bioburden diversity across outcomes. Genus-level Pseudomonas detection was associated with wound failure at all surgeries. A logistic regression model was fit to the presence and absence of antimicrobial resistance classes to assess associations with nosocomial pathogens. A. baumannii detection was associated with detection of genomic signatures for resistance to trimethoprim, aminoglycosides, bacitracin, and polymyxin. Machine learning classifiers were applied to identify wound and microbial variables associated with outcome. Feature importance rankings averaged across models indicated the variables with the largest effects on predicting wound outcome, including an increase in P. putida sequence reads. These results describe the microbial genomic determinants in combat wound bioburden and demonstrate metagenomic investigation as a comprehensive tool for providing information toward aiding treatment of combat-related injuries.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2012

THE CENTRAL DARK MATTER DISTRIBUTION OF NGC 2976

We study the mass distribution in the late-type dwarf galaxy NGC 2976 through stellar kinematics obtained with the Visible Integral Field Replicable Unit Spectrograph Prototype and anisotropic Jeans models as a test of cosmological simulations and baryonic processes that putatively alter small-scale structure. Previous measurements of the H{alpha} emission-line kinematics have determined that the dark matter halo of NGC 2976 is most consistent with a cored density profile. We find that the stellar kinematics are best fit with a cuspy halo. Cored dark matter halo fits are only consistent with the stellar kinematics if the stellar mass-to-light ratio is significantly larger than that derived from stellar population synthesis, while the best-fitting cuspy model has no such conflict. The inferred mass distribution from a harmonic decomposition of the gaseous kinematics is inconsistent with that of the stellar kinematics. This difference is likely due to the gas disk not meeting the assumptions that underlie the analysis such as no pressure support, a constant kinematic axis, and planar orbits. By relaxing some of these assumptions, in particular the form of the kinematic axis with radius, the gas-derived solution can be made consistent with the stellar kinematic models. A strong kinematic twist in the gas of NGC 2976's center suggests caution, and we advance the mass model based on the stellar kinematics as more reliable. The analysis of this first galaxy shows promising evidence that dark matter halos in late-type dwarfs may in fact be more consistent with cuspy dark matter distributions than earlier work has claimed.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2014

COMPLEXITY ON DWARF GALAXY SCALES: A BIMODAL DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION IN SCULPTOR

In our previous work, we presented Schwarzschild models of the Sculptor dwarf spheroidal galaxy demonstrating that this system could be embedded in dark matter halos that are either cusped or cored. Here, we show that the non-parametric distribution function recovered through Schwarzschild's method is bimodal in energy and angular momentum space for all of the best-fitting mass models explored. We demonstrate that this bimodality is directly related to the two components known to be present in Sculptor through stellar population analysis, although our method is purely dynamical in nature and does not use this prior information. It therefore constitutes independent confirmation of the existence of two physically distinct dynamical components in Sculptor and suggests a rather complex assembly history for this dwarf galaxy.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Temperature Measurements in Hypersonic Wind Tunnels via Femtosecond Coherent Anti-Stokes Raman Scattering

A femtosecond coherent anti-Stokes Raman scattering (fs CARS) instrument is developed to perform gas-phase thermometry in cold-flow hypersonic wind tunnels. Measurements are reported for Mach 8 and 14 pure-nitrogen flows. The fs CARS instrument includes a 100 fs pump/Stokes pulse and a spectrally narrow probe pulse from a second harmonic bandwidth compressor. Important experimental considerations such as limits on the pump/Stokes pulse energy are discussed. The fs CARS focusing and collimating optics are mounted on a two-axis translation stage system to scan the measurement location during a 30 second wind tunnel run. Single-laser-shot rotational CARS spectra are recorded at the laser repetition rate of 1 kHz in the wind tunnel freestream and near simple cone models. Spectral fitting is used to determine quantitative gas temperatures. Freestream temperatures at Mach 8 and 14 spanned ranges of 40–75 and 35–50 K, respectively, depending on tunnel operating conditions. Temperature variations across the central 100 mm span of the wind tunnel were quantified. Measured temperature jumps across conical bow shocks from various models varied by less than 1% from predicted values. Hypersonic boundary layer measurements were demonstrated. In conclusion, these measurements illustrate the utility and robustness of this instrument for the study of complex fluid flow phenomena in challenging ground test facilities.

Aerodynamics↗
DOE OSTI2024

A strong blend in the morning: studying the circumgalactic medium before cosmic noon with strong, blended Ly α forest systems

ABSTRACT We study of the properties of a new class of circumgalactic medium absorbers identified in the Ly α forest: ‘Strong, Blended Lyman-α’ (or SBLA) absorption systems. We study SBLAs at 2.4 < z < 3.1 in SDSS-IV/eBOSS spectra by their strong extended Ly α absorption complexes covering 138 $\, \, {\rm km}\, {\rm s}^{-1}$ with an integrated $\log (N_{\rm H\, {\small I}}/\mathrm{cm}^{-2}) =16.04$$\substack{+0.05 \\ -0.06}$ and Doppler parameter b = 18.1$\substack{+0.7 \\ -0.4}$$\, \, {\rm km}\, {\rm s}^{-1}$. Clustering with the Ly α forest provides a large-scale structure bias of b = 2.34 ± 0.06 and halo mass estimate of $M_h \approx 10^{12}\, h^{-1}\, {\rm M_{\odot }}$ for our SBLA sample. We measure the ensemble mean column densities of 22 metal features in the SBLA composite spectrum and find that no single-population multiphase model for them is viable. We therefore explore the underlying SBLA population by forward modelling the SBLA absorption distribution. Based on covariance measurements and favoured populations we find that ≈25 per cent of our SBLAs have stronger metals. Using silicon only we find that our strong metal SBLAs trace gas with a log (nH/cm−3) > −2.40 for T = 103.5 K and show gas clumping on <210 parsec scales. We fit multiphase models to this strong subpopulation and find a low ionization phase with nH = 1 cm−3, T = 103.5 K, and [X/H] = 0.8, an intermediate ionization phase with log (nH/cm−3) = −3.05, T = 103.5 K and [X/H] = −0.8, and a poorly constrained higher ionization phase. We find that the low ionization phase favours cold, dense super-solar metallicity gas with a clumping scale of just 0.009 parsecs.

Morrison, Sean (ORCID:0000000267702627)↗
DOE OSTI2019

On behaviour and scaling of small repeating earthquakes in rate and state fault models

With abundant seismic data for small repeating earthquakes, it is important to construct a dynamic model that can explain various aspects of related observations. We report on small repeating earthquakes on a fault governed by rate- and state-dependent friction laws. The earthquakes occur on a velocity-weakening patch surrounded by a much larger velocity-strengthening region. The whole fault is subject to long-term tectonic loading. The model with a circular patch and the aging form of rate- and state-dependent friction laws has been shown to reproduce the scaling of recurrence time versus seismic moment for small repeating earthquakes in a previous study. In this work we investigate the behaviour of small repeating earthquakes in related models under different scenarios, including several forms of the state evolution equations in rate- and state-dependent friction laws, rectangular velocity-weakening patch geometries, quasi-dynamic versus fully dynamic representation of inertial effects and 2-D versus 3-D simulations. We discover that the simulated scalings between the recurrence time and seismic moment for these different scenarios is similar while differences do exist. We propose a theoretical consideration for the scaling between the recurrence time and seismic moment of small repeating earthquakes. For patch radii smaller than or comparable to the full nucleation size, the scaling is explained by the increase of seismic to aseismic slip ratio with magnitude. For patch radii larger than the full nucleation size, the scaling is explained by the model in which the recurrence time is determined by the earthquake nucleation time, which is in turn determined by the time for aseismic slip to penetrate the distance of the full nucleation size into the patch. The obtained theoretical insight is used to find the combinations of fault properties that allow the model to fit the observed scaling and range of the seismic moment and recurrence time.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

Optical bandgap of ultra-thin amorphous silicon films deposited on crystalline silicon by PECVD

An optical study based on spectroscopic ellipsometry, performed on ultrathin hydrogenated amorphous silicon (a-Si:H) layers, is presented in this work. Ultrathin layers of intrinsic amorphous silicon have been deposited on n-type mono-crystalline silicon (c-Si) wafers by plasma enhanced chemical vapor deposition (PECVD). The layer thicknesses along with their optical properties –including their refractive index and optical loss- were characterized by spectroscopic ellipsometry (SE) in a wavelength range from 250 nm to 850 nm. The data was fitted to a Tauc-Lorentz optical model and the fitting parameters were extracted and used to compute the refractive index, extinction coefficient and optical bandgap. Furthermore, the a-Si:H film grown on silicon was etched at a controlled rate using a TMAH solution prepared at room temperature. The optical properties along with the Tauc-Lorentz fitting parameters were extracted from the model as the film thickness was reduced. The etch rate for ultrathin a-Si:H layers in TMAH at room temperature was found to slow down drastically as the c-Si interface is approached. From the Tauc-Lorentz parameters obtained from SE, it was found that the a-Si film exhibited properties that evolved with thickness suggesting that the deposited film is non-homogeneous across its depth. It was also found that the degree of crystallinity and optical (Tauc) bandgap increased as the layers were reduced in thickness and coming closer to the c-Si substrate interface, suggesting the presence of nano-structured clusters mixed into the amorphous phase for the region close to the crystalline silicon substrate. Further results from Atomic Force Microscopy and Transmission Electron Microscopy confirmed the presence of an interfacial transitional layer between the amorphous film and the underlying substrate showing silicon nano-crystalline enclosures that can lead to quantum confinement effects. Quantum confinement is suggested to be the cause of the observed increase in the optical bandgap of a-Si:H films close to the a-Si:H/cSi interface.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2013

Tumor response parameters for head and neck cancer derived from tumor-volume variation during radiation therapy

Purpose: The main goal of this paper is to reconstruct a distribution of cell survival fractions from tumor-volume variation for a heterogeneous group of head and neck cancer patients and compare this distribution to the data from predictive assays. Methods: To characterize the tumor-volume variation during radiation therapy treatment, the authors use a two-level tumor-volume model of cell population that separates the entire tumor cell population into two subpopulations of viable cells and lethally damaged cells. This parameterized radiobiological model is integrated with a least squares objective function and a simulated annealing optimization algorithm to describe time-dependent tumor-volume variation rates in individual patients. Several constraints have been used in the optimization problem because tumor-volume variation during radiotherapy is described by a sum of exponentials; therefore, the problem of accurately fitting a model to measured data is ill-posed. The model was applied to measured tumor-volume variation curves from a clinical study on tumor-volume variation during radiotherapy for 14 head and neck cancer patients in which an integrated CT/linear particle accelerator (LINAC) system was used for tumor-volume measurements. Results: The two-level cell population tumor-volume modeling is capable of describing tumor-volume variation throughout the entire treatment for 11 of the 14 patients. For three patients, the tumor-volume variation was described only during the initial part of treatment, a fact that may be related to the neglected hypoxia in the two-level approximation. The predicted probability density distribution for the survival fractions agrees with the data obtained using in vitro studies with predictive assays. The mean value 0.35 of survival fraction obtained in this study is larger than the value 0.32 from in vitro studies, which could be expected because of greater repair in vivo. The mean half-life obtained in this study for the head-and-neck squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) is equal to 3.8 mean potential doubling times, which agrees with 4.0 mean potential doubling times obtained previously for lung SCC. Conclusions: The distribution of cell survival fractions obtained in this study support the hypothesis that the tumor-volume variation during radiotherapy treatment for head and neck cancer can be described by the two-level cell population tumor-volume model. This model can be used for in vivo evaluation of patient-specific radiobiological parameters that are needed for tumor-control probability evaluation.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Chocolate Chip Cookie Model: Dust Geometry of Milky Way–like Disk Galaxies

We present a new two-component dust geometry model, the Chocolate Chip Cookie model, where the clumpy nebular regions are embedded in a diffuse stellar/interstellar medium disk, like chocolate chips in a cookie. By approximating the binomial distribution of the clumpy nebular regions with a continuous Gaussian distribution and omitting the dust scattering effect, our model solves the dust attenuation process for both the emission lines and stellar continua via analytical approaches. Our Chocolate Chip Cookie model successfully fits the inclination dependence of both the effective dust reddening of the stellar components derived from stellar population synthesis and that of the emission lines characterized by the Balmer decrement for a large sample of Milky Way–like (MW-like) disk galaxies selected from the main galaxy sample of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey. Our model shows that the clumpy nebular disk is about 0.55 times thinner and 1.6 times larger than the stellar disk for MW-like galaxies, whereas each clumpy region has a typical optical depth of τ cl,V ~ 0.5 in the V band. After considering the aperture effect, our model prediction on the inclination dependence of dust attenuation is also consistent with observations. Not only that, in our model, the dust attenuation curve of the stellar population naturally depends on the inclination, and its median case is consistent with the classical Calzetti law. As the modeling constraints are from the optical wavelengths, our model is unaffected by the optically thick dust component, which however could bias the model's prediction of the infrared emissions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Water dynamics in C–S–H and M-S-H cement pastes: A revised jump-diffusion and rotation-diffusion model

The Quasi-Elastic Neutron Scattering (QENS) spectra from four cement pastes are re-analyzed by a new revised jump-diffusion and rotation-diffusion model (rJRM). From the QENS fit, it can be seen that the rJRM is an improved model to fit QENS spectra within the whole detected neutron energy transfer and scattering vector. By the rJRM fitting, the structure parameters extracted from QENS spectra show that both the additives aluminum-silicate nanotubes (ASN) and carboxyl group functionalized ASN (ASN-COOH) can improve magnesium-silicate-hydrate (M-S-H) toward calcium-silicate-hydrate (C–S–H) direction in mechanical properties, but the improvement is weakened with decreasing temperatures. The extracted dynamical parameters show that there is a dynamic anomaly near 230 K in not only translational but also rotational diffusion of water confined in all the investigated samples. In conclusion, the anomaly in rotational diffusion is new compared with those results obtained by the QENS fit using other models.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2024

Unraveling the Pyrolytic Behavior and Kinetics of Single Polymers and Plastic-Rich Municipal Solid Waste Using Thermal Analysis

Pyrolysis is a highly promising thermochemical recycling technology for converting heterogenous plastic waste into sustainable fuels in a single step. Therefore, understanding the pyrolysis mechanism is essential for enabling rational reactor design and enhancing efficient recycling techniques. In this study, the thermal degradation behaviors and corresponding kinetics of pure polymers (PE, PP, and PET) and plastic-rich MSW were examined using simultaneous thermogravimetric analysis (TGA) and differential scanning calorimetry (DSC). Experiments were carried out in the temperature range of 30-800°C with variable heating rates from 5°C/min to 20°C/min in an ultra-high purity Argon atmosphere. Our results indicated that the plastic pyrolysis was an endothermic process, with varying decomposition temperature ranges depending on their structure and composition. Various iso-conversional model-free methods (Friedman, Flynn-Wall-Ozawa, Starink, and Kissinger-Akahira-Sunose) were utilized to determine the apparent activation energy of the plastic degradation, which increased in the following order: PET (214 kJ/mol), PP (218 kJ/mol), PE (245 kJ/mol), and MSW (249 kJ/mol). Finally, Criado’s master plots were employed to identify the best-fitting reaction model and the pre-exponential factor was subsequently determined.

Bashir, Muhammad Aamir↗
DOE OSTI2018

Density split statistics: Cosmological constraints from counts and lensing in cells in DES Y1 and SDSS data

Here, we derive cosmological constraints from the probability distribution function (PDF) of evolved large-scale matter density fluctuations. We do this by splitting lines of sight by density based on their count of tracer galaxies, and by measuring both gravitational shear around and counts-in-cells in overdense and underdense lines of sight, in Dark Energy Survey (DES) First Year and Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) data. Our analysis uses a perturbation theory model and is validated using N-body simulation realizations and log-normal mocks. It allows us to constrain cosmology, bias and stochasticity of galaxies with respect to matter density and, in addition, the skewness of the matter density field. From a Bayesian model comparison, we find that the data weakly prefer a connection of galaxies and matter that is stochastic beyond Poisson fluctuations on ≤ 20 arcmin angular smoothing scale. The two stochasticity models we fit yield DES constraints on the matter density Ω m = 0.26 +0.04 –0.03 and Ω m = 0.28 +0.05 –0.04 that are consistent with each other. These values also agree with the DES analysis of galaxy and shear two-point functions (3x2pt, DES Collaboration et al.) that only uses second moments of the PDF. Constraints on σ8 are model dependent (σ 8 = 0.97 +0.07 –0.06 and 0.80 +0.06 –0.07 for the two stochasticity models), but consistent with each other and with the 3 x 2pt results if stochasticity is at the low end of the posterior range. As an additional test of gravity, counts and lensing in cells allow to compare the skewness S 3 of the matter density PDF to its ΛCDM prediction. We find no evidence of excess skewness in any model or data set, with better than 25 per cent relative precision in the skewness estimate from DES alone.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Climatology and Extreme Value Analysis of Large Hail in China

In this paper, hail size records are analyzed at 2254 stations in China and a hail size climatology is developed based on gridded hail observations for the period 1960–2015. It is found that the annual percentiles of hail size records changed sharply and national-wide after 1980, therefore two periods, 1960–79 and 1980–2015, are studied. There are some similarities between the two periods in terms of the characteristics of hail size such as the spatial distribution patterns of mean annual maximum hail size and occurrence week of annual maximum hail size. The 1980–2015 period had higher observation density than the 1960–79 period, but showed smaller mean annual maximum hail size, especially in northern China. In the majority of grid boxes, the annual maximum hail size experienced a decreasing trend during the 1980–2015 period. A Gumbel extreme value model is fitted to each grid box to estimate the return periods of maximum hail size. The scale and location parameter of the fitted Gumbel distributions are higher in eastern China than in western China, thereby reflecting a greater likelihood of large hail in eastern China. In southern China, the maximum hail size exceeds 127 mm for a 10-yr return period, whereas in northern China maximum hail size exceeds this threshold for a 50-yr return period. Furthermore, the Gumbel model is found to potentially underestimate the maximum hail size for certain return periods, but provides a more informed picture of the spatial distribution of extreme hail size and the regional differences.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

Combined impact of lead, cadmium, polychlorinated biphenyls and non-chemical risk factors on blood pressure in NHANES

High blood pressure is associated with exposure to multiple chemical and non-chemical risk factors, but epidemiological analyses to date have not assessed the combined effects of both chemical and non-chemical stressors on human populations in the context of cumulative risk assessment. We developed a novel modeling approach to evaluate the combined impact of lead, cadmium, polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), and multiple non-chemical risk factors on four blood pressure measures using data for adults aged ≥20 years from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (1999–2008). We developed predictive models for chemical and other stressors. Structural equation models were applied to account for complex associations among predictors of stressors as well as blood pressure. Models showed that blood lead, serum PCBs, and established non-chemical stressors were significantly associated with blood pressure. Lead was the chemical stressor most predictive of diastolic blood pressure and mean arterial pressure, while PCBs had a greater influence on systolic blood pressure and pulse pressure, and blood cadmium was not a significant predictor of blood pressure. The simultaneously fit exposure models explained 34%, 43% and 52% of the variance for lead, cadmium and PCBs, respectively. The structural equation models were developed using predictors available from public data streams (e.g., U.S. Census), which would allow the models to be applied to any U.S. population exposed to these multiple stressors in order to identify high risk subpopulations, direct intervention strategies, and inform public policy. - Highlights: • We evaluated joint impact of chemical and non-chemical stressors on blood pressure. • We built predictive models for lead, cadmium and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs). • Our approach allows joint evaluation of predictors from population-specific data. • Lead, PCBs and established non-chemical stressors were related to blood pressure. • Framework allows cumulative risk assessment in specific geographic settings.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗