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NASA NTRS1997

Geotail MCA Plasma Wave Investigation Data Analysis

The primary goals of the International Solar Terrestrial Physics/Global Geospace Science (ISTP/GGS) program are identifying, studying, and understanding the source, movement, and dissipation of plasma mass, momentum, and energy between the Sun and the Earth. The GEOTAIL spacecraft was built by the Japanese Institute of Space and Astronautical Science and has provided extensive measurements of entry, storage, acceleration, and transport in the geomagnetic tail and throughout the Earth's outer magnetosphere. GEOTAIL was launched on July 24, 1992, and began its scientific mission with eighteen extensions into the deep-tail region with apogees ranging from around 60 R(sub e) to more than 208 R(sub e) in the period up to late 1994. Due to the nature of the GEOTAIL trajectory which kept the spacecraft passing into the deep tail, GEOTAIL also made 'magnetopause skimming passes' which allowed measurements in the outer magnetosphere, magnetopause, magnetosheath, bow shock, and upstream solar wind regions as well as in the lobe, magnetosheath, boundary layers, and central plasma sheet regions of the tail. In late 1994, after spending nearly 30 months primarily traversing the deep tail region, GEOTAIL began its near-Earth phase. Perigee was reduced to 10 R(sub e) and apogee first to 50 R(sub e) and finally to 30 R(sub e) in early 1995. This orbit provides many more opportunities for GEOTAIL to explore the upstream solar wind, bow shock, magnetosheath, magnetopause, and outer magnetosphere as well as the near-Earth tail regions. The WIND spacecraft was launched on November 1, 1994 and the POLAR spacecraft was launched on February 24, 1996. These successful launches have dramatically increased the opportunities for GEOTAIL and the GGS spacecraft to be used to conduct the global research for which the ISTP program was designed. The measurement and study of plasma waves have made and will continue to make important contributions to reaching the ISTP/GGS goals and solving the significant problems of sun-earth connections. Plasma waves are involved in the energization and de-energization of plasma and energetic particles via numerous wave-particle interaction processes. Plasma waves in many instances are the source for the heating or cooling of the particles. They can cause particle precipitation by scattering particles into the loss cone. They move particles across boundaries in mass and energy dependent ways. Identifying the waves and the instabilities which produce them are thus crucial for understanding the plasma processes. Wave-particle interaction processes are especially important at various boundaries between the different regions of geospace including the bow shock, magnetopause, and interfaces in the geomagnetic tail between the magnetosheath, lobe, plasmasheet, boundary layers, and neutral sheet. In addition to identifying the characteristics of the instabilities and generation mechanisms encountered, plasma wave measurement are used in conjunction with other fields and particle measurements to identify the region of space the spacecraft is in or the boundary that is being crosed.

Anderson, Roger R.↗

NASA NTRS1997

Lithium Abundances in the Young Open Cluster IC 2602

We have obtained high-resolution spectra for 28 candidate late-type stars in the 30 Myr old cluster IC 2602. NLTE Li abundances have been derived from measured equivalent widths. The log n(Li) - T(sub eff) and log n(Li) - mass distributions for our sample stars have been compared with those of the Pleiades and alpha Persei. Our data show that F stars in the three clusters have the same lithium content, which corresponds to the initial content for Pop. I stars. G and early-K IC 2602 stars are, on average, somewhat more Li-rich than their counterparts in the two slightly older clusters. Finally, the latest-type IC 2602 stars are heavily Li depleted, with their Li content being as low as the lowest measured among the Pleiades. As in the Pleiades and alpha Per, a star-to-star scatter in lithium is observed among 30 Myr old late-K/early-K dwarfs in IC 2602, indicating that this spread develops in the pre-main sequence phases.

Randich, S.↗

NASA NTRS1997

NASA as a Catalyst: Use of Satellite Data in the States

NASA revolutionized our view of the world in 1972 with the launch of the first satellite to monitor the Earth. Recognizing the importance of states in governing the United States, NASA then established a program in the late 1970s to educate and assist states in using satellite data products. This report reviews this brief, but beneficial program that laid a foundation and catalyzed satellite data work that continues today in several states. More recently, outreach efforts as part of NASAs Mission to Planet Earth program and growing state government roles, responsibilities, and initiatives led NASA to begin a new effort in 1994 to understand and work effectively with states. This effort included an investigation and synthesis of current satellite data conditions in each of the 50 states that are included in this report. It provided strong evidence that some state governments are applying satellite data to an increasing array of government needs, while other states have very limited applications to date. A wide range of satellite data applications in executive branch agencies are described, as well as the recent status of the Gap Analysis Program in each of the states with this program. The report also reviews the status of satellite data and geographic information coordination efforts in each of the 50 states. In addition to this investigation, NASA convened a meeting of representatives of 12 states experienced with satellite data to identify future satellite data uses and needs, as well as NASA opportunities to enhance the utility of satellite data products. The findings and recommendations from this meeting, the 50 state investigations, and NASAs past state programs are also included in the report; they provide the rationale for NASA to establish a new outreach effort with state governments in the late 1990s.

Warnecke, Lisa↗

NASA NTRS1992

Stereoselectivity in Polyphenol Biosynthesis

Stereoselectivity plays an important role in the late stages of phenyl-propanoid metabolism, affording lignins, lignans, and neolignans. Stereoselectivity is manifested during monolignol (glucoside) synthesis, e.g., where the geometry (E or Z) of the pendant double bond affects the specificity of UDPG:coniferyl alcohol glucosyltransferases in different species. Such findings are viewed to have important ramifications in monolignol transport and storage processes, with roles for both E- and Z-monolignols and their glucosides in lignin/lignan biosynthesis being envisaged. Stereoselectivity is also of great importance in enantiose-lective enzymatic processes affording optically active lignans. Thus, cell-free extracts from Forsythia species were demonstrated to synthesize the enantiomerically pure lignans, (-)-secoisolariciresinol, and (-)-pinoresinol, when NAD(P)H, H2O2 and E-coniferyl alcohol were added. Progress toward elucidating the enzymatic steps involved in such highly stereoselective processes is discussed. Also described are preliminary studies aimed at developing methodologies to determine the subcellular location of late-stage phenylpropanoid metabolites (e.g., coniferyl alcohol) and key enzymes thereof, in intact tissue or cells. This knowledge is essential if questions regarding lignin and lignan tissue specificity and regulation of these processes are to be deciphered.

Lewis, Norman G.↗

NASA NTRS1997

A Study of the Stellar Population in Selected SO Galaxies

The goal of this program was to observe at least two SO galaxies with abnormal colors in the blue and clear optical signatures of dust and gas. The galaxies NGC 2217 and NGC 1808 were observed at least in one of the IUE cameras (1200-200 and 2000-3200 A) during the 13th episode, using the 4 US1 shifts assigned to this program. The galaxy NGC 2217 had been found to be part of a subgroup of SO galaxies with external gas rotating in retrograde motion with respect to the stars. This galaxy is a face-on object with indications of large amount of gas, quite rare for a SO galaxy. We observed this object on three different occasions with IUE at different positions of the large aperture (spacecraft roll angle) with respect to the nuclear region. These exposures allowed us to take full advantage of the spatial resolution of IUE by mapping nuclear and bulge region of this galaxy. We found that the data point to a marginally earlier stellar population toward the central region. The UV light as a whole is dominated by a late-type stellar population of principally G and K stars. The almost face-on view of this galaxy appears optically thick to UV light. It is conceivable that in analogy to out own Galaxy, the stellar populations weakly detected in NGC 2217, are mostly halo and late-type stars in the center with an increasing contribution of dust and early stellar populations (so far undetected) as we move outward along the faint spiral arms. This result is contrary to our initial expectation, since the counterrotating gas does not appear to be enhancing star formation in this galaxy. Even more interesting were the observations of NGC 1808; galaxy which has been classified, with a handful of other objects, both as a starburst and Seyfert galaxy. Attachment: 'The White-Dwarf Companions of 56 Persei and HR 3643.'

Perez, M.↗

NASA NTRS1997

Breccia Formation at a Complex Impact Crater: Slate Islands, Lake Superior, Ontario, Canada

The Slate Islands impact structure is the eroded remnant of a approximately 30-32 km-diameter complex impact structure located in northern Lake Superior, Ontario, Canada. Target rocks are Archean supracrustal and igneous rocks and Proterozoic metavolcanics, metasediments, and diabase. A wide variety of breccias occurs on the islands, many of which contain fragments exhibiting shock metamorphic features. Aphanitic, narrow and inclusion-poor pseudotachylite veins, commonly with more or less parallel boundaries and apophyses branching off them, represent the earliest breccias formed during the compression stage of the impact process. Coarse-grained, polymictic elastic matrix breccias form small to very large, inclusion-rich dikes and irregularly shaped bodies that may contain altered glass fragments. These breccias have sharp contacts with their host rocks and include a wide range of fragment types some of which were transported over minimum distances of approximately 2 km away from the center of the structure. They cut across pseudotachylite veins and contain inclusions of them. Field and petrographic evidence indicate that these polymictic breccias formed predominantly during the excavation and central uplift stages of the impact process. Monomictic breccias, characterized by angular fragments and transitional contacts with their host rocks, occur in parautochthonous target rocks, mainly on the outlying islands of the Slate Islands archipelago. A few contain fragmented and disrupted, coarse-grained, polymictic clastic matrix breccia dikes. This is an indication that at least some of these monomictic breccias formed late in the impact process and that they are probably related to a late crater modification stage. A small number of relatively large occurrences of glass-poor, suevitic breccias occur at the flanks of the central uplift and along the inner flank of the outer ring of the Slate Islands complex crater. A coarse, glass-free, allogenic breccia, containing shatter-coned fragments derived from Proterozoic target rocks (upper target strata), observed at two locations may be analogous to the 'Bunt Breccia' of the Ries crater in Germany. At one of these locations this breccia lies close to a crater suevite deposit. At the other, it overlies parautochthonous, monomictic breccia. The State Islands impact breccias are superbly exposed, much better than breccias in most other terrestrial impact structures. Observations, including those indicative of multiple and and sequential processes, provide insight on how impact breccias form and how they relate to the various phases of the impact process. Eventually they will lead to an improved understanding of planetary impact processes.

Dressler, B. O.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Geology and landscape evolution of the Hellas region of Mars

Hellas basin on Mars has been the site of volcanism, tectonism, and modification by fluvial, mass-wasting, and eolian processes over its more than 4-b.y. existence. Our detailed geologic mapping and related studies have resulted in the following new interpretations. The asymmetric distribution of highland massifs and other structures that define the uplifted basin rim suggest a formation of the basin by the impact of a low-angle bolide having a trajectory heading S 60 deg E. During the Late Noachian, the basin was infilled, perhaps by lava flows, that were sufficiently thick (>1 km) to produce wrinkle ridges on the fill material and extensional faulting along the west rim of the basin. At about the same time, deposits buried northern Malea Planum, which are interpreted to be pyroclastic flows from Amphitrites and Peneus Paterae on the basis of their degraded morphology, topography, and the application of a previous model for pyroclastic volcanism on Mars. Peneus forms a distinctive caldera structure that indicates eruption of massive volumes of magma, whereas Amphitrites is a less distinct circular feature surrounded by a broad, low, dissected shield that suggests generally smaller volume eruptions. During the Early Hesperian, an approx. 1- to 2-km-thick sequence of primarily fined-grained, eolian material was deposited on the floor of Hellas basin. Subsequently, the deposit was deeply eroded, except where armored by crater ejecta, and it retreated as much as 200-300 km along its western margin, leaving behind pedestal craters and knobby outliers of the deposit. Local debris flows within the deposit attest to concentrations of groundwater, perhaps in part brought in by outflow floods along the east rim of the basin. These floods may have deposited approx. 100-200 m of sediment, subduing wrinkle ridges in the eastern part of the basin floor. During the Late Hesperian and Amazonian, eolian mantles were emplaced on the basin rim and floor and surrounding highlands. Their subsequent erosion resulted in pitted and etched plains and crater fill, irregular mesas, and pedestal craters. Local evidence occurs for the possible former presence of ground ice or ice sheets approx. 100 km across; however, we disagree with a hypothesis that suggests that the entire south rim and much of the floor of Hellas have been glaciated. Orientations of dune fields and yardangs in lower parts of Hellas basin follow directions of the strongest winds predicted by a recently published general circulation model (GCM). Transient frost and dust splotches in the region are, by contrast, related to the GCM prediction for the season in which the images they appear in were taken.

Tanaka, Kenneth L.↗

NASA NTRS1997

Distribution and Seasonality of Selected Hydrocarbons and Halocarbons over the Western Pacific Basin During PEM-West A and PEM-West B

Nonmethane hydrocarbons (NMHCs) and halocarbons were measured in the troposphere over the northwestern Pacific as part of the airborne component of NASA's Pacific Exploratory Mission-West Phase B (PEM-West B). This study took place in late winter of 1994, a period characterized by maximum outflow from the Asian continent. The results are compared to those from Pacific Exploratory Mission-West Phase A (PEM-West A), which was flown in the same region during late summer of 1991, when flow from the subtropical western Pacific dominated the lower troposphere. Mixing ratios of NMHCs, tetrachloroethene (C2Cl4), and methyl bromide (CH3Br) were significantly higher during PEM-West B than during PEM-West A, particularly at latitudes north of 25 deg N and altitudes lower than 6 km. The primary reasons for these higher ambient concentrations were the seasonal increase in the atmospheric lifetimes of trace gases controlled by HO radical reactions, and the more frequent input of continental air masses. During PEM-West B, air masses of continental origin observed north of 25 deg N latitude were augmented with urban signature gases such as C2Cl4. By contrast, more southerly continental outflow had characteristics associated with combustion sources such as biomass burning, including wood fuel burning. During the summer PEM-West A period, the spatial distribution of methyl iodide (CH3I) was consistent with effective oceanic sources at all latitudes, being especially strong in tropical and subtropical regions. At low latitudes, PEM-West B CH3I mixing ratios in the lower troposphere were similar to PEM-West A, but at latitudes greater than about 25 deg N PEM-West B concentrations were significantly reduced. Equatorial regions exhibited enhanced CH3I mixing ratios extending into the upper tropical troposphere, consistent with fast vertical transport of air from the tropical marine boundary layer.

Blake, Nicola J.↗

NASA NTRS1996

Modelling Temporal Variability in the Carbon Balance of a Spruce/Moss Boreal Forest

A model of the daily carbon balance of a black spruce/feathermoss boreal forest ecosystem was developed and results compared to preliminary data from the 1994 BOREAS field campaign in northern Manitoba, Canada. The model, driven by daily weather conditions, simulated daily soil climate status (temperature and moisture profiles), spruce photosynthesis and respiration, moss photosynthesis and respiration, and litter decomposition. Model agreement with preliminary field data was good for net ecosystem exchange (NEE), capturing both the asymmetrical seasonality and short-term variability. During the growing season simulated daily NEE ranged from -4 g C m(exp -2) d(exp -1) (carbon uptake by ecosystem) to + 2 g C m(exp -2) d(exp -1) (carbon flux to atmosphere), with fluctuations from day to day. In the early winter simulated NEE values were + 0.5 g C m(exp -2) d(exp -1), dropping to + 0.2 g C m(exp -2) d(exp -1) in mid-winter. Simulated soil respiration during the growing season (+ 1 to + 5 g C m(exp -2) d(exp -1)) was dominated by metabolic respiration of the live moss, with litter decomposition usually contributing less than 30% and live spruce root respiration less than 10% of the total. Both spruce and moss net primary productivity (NPP) rates were higher in early summer than late summer. Simulated annual NEE for 1994 was -51 g C m(exp -2) y(exp -1), with 83% going into tree growth and 17% into the soil carbon accumulation. Moss NPP (58 g C m(exp -2) d(exp -1)) was considered to be litter (i.e. soil carbon input; no net increase in live moss biomass). Ecosystem respiration during the snow-covered season (84 g Cm(exp -2)) was 58% of the growing season net carbon uptake. A simulation of the same site for 1968-1989 showed about 10-20% year-to-year variability in heterotrophic respiration (mean of + 113 g C m-2 y@1). Moss NPP ranged from 19 to 114 g C m(exp -2) y(exp -1); spruce NPP from 81 to 150 g C nt-2 y,@l; spruce growth (NPP minus litterfall) from 34 to 103 g C m(exp -2) y(exp -1); NEE ranged from +37 to -142 g C m(exp -2) y(exp -1). Values for these carbon balance terms in 1994 were slightly smaller than the 1969 - 89 means. Higher ecosystem productivity years (more negative NEE) generally had early springs and relatively wet summers; lower productivity years had late springs and relatively dry summers.

Frolking, S.↗

NASA NTRS1996

Polar Vortex Conditions during the 1995-96 Artic Winter: Meteorology and MLS Ozone

The 1995-96 northern hemisphere (NH) 205 winter stratosphere was colder than in any of the previous 17 winters, with lower stratospheric temperatures continuously below the type 1 (primarily HN03) polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) threshold for over 2 1/2 months. Upper tropospheric ridges in late Feb and early Mar 1996 led to the lowest observed NH lower stratospheric temperatures, and the latest observed NH temperatures below the type 2 (water ice) PSC threshold. Consistent with the unusual cold and chemical processing on PSCS, Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) MLS observed a greater decrease in lower stratospheric ozone (03) in 1995-96 than in any of the previous 4 NH winters. 03 decreased throughout the vortex over an altitude range nearly as large as that typical of the southern hemisphere (SH). The decrease between late Dec 1995 and early Mar 1996 was about 2/3 of that over the equivalent SH period. As in other NH winters, temperatures in 1996 rose above the PSC threshold before the spring equinox, ending chemical processing in the NH vortex much earlier than is usual in the SH. A downward trend in column 03 above 100 hPa during Jan and Feb 1996 appears to be related to the lower stratospheric 03 depletion.

Manney, G. L.↗

NASA NTRS1996

Interannual Variability of the North Polar Vortex in the Lower Stratosphere During the UARS Mission

Northern winters since the 1991 launch of UARS are compared to earlier years (1978 -1991) with respect to the potential for formation of Polar Stratospheric Clouds and for isolation of the north polar vortex. Daily NMC temperature minima at 465 K late in the winter of 1993-94 and again in December 1994 were the lowest values experienced during these times of the year (since 1978). Northern PV gradients were unusually strong in 1991-92 prior to late January and throughout the winter in both 1992-93 and 1994-95. Of all northern winters since 1978, 1994-95 with its early extended cold spell and persistently strong PV gradients most resembled the Antarctic winter lower stratosphere. Even so, temperatures was never as low, nor was the polar vortex as large, as during a typical southern winter. Judged by daily temperature minima and PV gradients at 465 K, meteorological conditions in the Arctic winter lower stratosphere during the UARS period were more conducive to vortex ozone loss by heterogeneous chemistry than in most previous winters since 1978-79.

Zurek, R. W.↗

NASA NTRS1999

The Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite: From Coffee Table Art to Quantitative Science

The Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) has provided an unprecedented set of observations of constituents of the stratosphere. When used in combination with data from other sources and appropriate modeling tools, these observations are useful for quantitative evaluation of stratospheric photochemical processes. This is illustrated by comparing ozone observations from airborne Differential Absorption Lidar (DIAL), from the Polar Ozone and Aerosol Measurement (POAM), from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS), and from the Halogen occultation Experiment (HALOE) with ozone fields generated with a three dimensional model. For 1995-96, at polar latitudes, observations from DIAL flights on December 9 and January 30, and POAM and MLS between late December and late January are compared with ozone fields from the GSFC 3D chemistry and transport model. Data from the three platforms consistently show that the observed ozone has a negative trend relative to the modeled ozone, and that the trend is uniform in time between early and mid winter, with no obvious dependence on proximity to the vortex edge. The importance of chlorine catalyzed photochemistry to this ozone loss is explored by comparing observations from MLS and HALOE with simulations for other northern winters, particularly 1997-98.

Douglass, Anne R.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Multi-Scale Interactions Associated with the Monsoon Onset Over South China Sea and Adjacent Regions during SCSMEX-98

Using data collected during The South China Sea Monsoon Experiment (SCSMEX) (1998) as well as from the TRMM Microwave-Imager (TMI) and precipitation radar (PR), we have studied the multi-scale interactions (meso-synoptic-intraseasonal) associated with monsoon onset over South China Sea (SCS) and its subsequent evolution. Results show that the monsoon onset (defined by development of steady wind direction and heavy precipitation) over the northern SCS occurred around May 15 -17. Prevailing southerlies and southwesterlies developed over the central SCS after May 20. Shortly after, monsoon convection developed over the whole SCS region around May 23-27. The entire onset process appeared to be delayed by about a week to 10 days compared with climatology. During late spring of 1998, mid-latitude frontal systems were particularly active. These systems strongly impacted the northern SCS convection and may have been instrumental in triggering the onset of the SCS monsoon. The Tropical Oceans and Global Atmosphere (TOGA) and Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre (BMRC) radar showed a wide variety of convective systems over the Intensive Flux Array, from frontal bands to shear-banded structure, deep convection, pop-corn type shallow convection, slow moving "fine lines" to water spout. Analysis of SSM/I wind and moisture data suggested that the delayed convective activity over the SCS may be linked to the weakened northward propagation of monsoon rain band, hence contributing to a persistence of the rainband south of the Yangtze River and the disastrous flood that occurred over this region during mid to late June, 1998.

Lau, William K. M.↗

NASA NTRS1998

White Light Stray Light Test of the SOHO UVCS

During the late stages of the integration phase of the Ultraviolet Coronagraph Spectrometer (UVCS) instrument for the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) at MATRA-Marconi in Toulouse, France, SOHO Project management at Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) became concerned that the elaborate stray light rejection system for the instrument had not been tested and might possibly be misaligned such that the instrument could not deliver promised scientific returns. A white light stray light test, which would place an upper bound on the value of UVCS's stray light rejection capability, was commissioned, conceived, and carried out. This upper bound value would be indicative of the weakest coronal features the spectrometer would be capable of discerning. The test was rapidly developed at GSFC in coordination with science team members from Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics (CFA) and was carried out at MATRA in late February 1995. The outcome of this test helped to justify similar, much desired tests with visible and far ultraviolet light at CFA in a facility specifically designed to perform such testing.

Gardner, L. N.↗

NASA NTRS1999

The Diurnal Cycle in TOGA-COARE: Regional Scale Model Simulations

The diurnal variation of precipitation processes over the tropics is a well-known phenomenon and has been studied using surface rainfall data, radar reflectivity data, and satellite-derived cloudiness and precipitation. Recently, Sui (1997) analyzed observations from TOGA COARE in the tropical western Pacific ocean to study the relevant mechanisms producing diurnal variation of precipitation. They found that the diurnal SST cycle is important for afternoon showers in the undisturbed periods and diurnal radiative processes for nocturnal rainfall. Takayabu (1996) found a quasi-2-day cycle in precipitation during TOGA COARE and they suggested that inertia-gravity waves may be associated with this 2-day cycle. Chen and Houze (1997), however, suggested that the quasi-2-day oscillation is mainly a function of the time required by the lower-tropospheric moisture field to recover from the drying caused by deep convection. In this study, the Penn State/NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) with improved physics (i.e., cloud microphysics, radiation, land-soil-vegetation-surface processes, and TOGA COARE flux scheme) and a multiple level nesting technique will be used to simulate two TOGA COARE convective espisodes, one convectively suppressed phase (mid to late January 1993) and one convectively active phase (mid to late December 1992). We will examine precipitation processes over the open ocean and over land by comparing MM5 simulated rainfall and out-going longwave radiation. By examining the OLR and precipitation, we can determine if there is a temporal lag between the maximum precipitation and the coldest upwelling longwave radiation (the time-lag between stratiform-cirrus and convective towers). The boundary layer response by (or recovery from) precipitation processes will also be shown by examining the PBL thermodynamic structure and the sensible and latent heat fluxes. A preliminary MM5 simulation showed a clear diurnal variation in rainfall over both land and open ocean for the convectively active phase. The results also indicated that a quasi-2-day cycle in precipitation was simulated only over part of the ocean.

Tao, W.-K.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Trends in the Annual Frequency of Atlantic Basin Intense Hurricanes: Implications for the Near-Term

During the interval of 1944-1997, 120 intense hurricanes (category 3, 4, or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale) have been observed in the Atlantic basin. These intense hurricanes have had an observed annual frequency of 0-7 events per year (having a mean, mode, and median equal to about 2 events per year), being preferentially lower during El Ninio years and higher during non-El Ninio years. Also, it has recently been established that a long-term downward trend in the annual frequency of intense hurricanes, spanning about five decades, has taken place, although this trend can, alternatively, be explained as a shift from a more active state prior to the mid 1960's to a less active state thereafter (rather than as a simple linear decline). In this paper, on the basis of 10-yr moving averages, the long4erm trend of the frequency of intense hurricanes is compared against one for the annual mean temperature at Armagh Observatory, Northern Ireland (which serves as a proxy for climatic change). Interestingly, the two sets of 10-yr moving averages correlate extremely well, especially, when incorporating a slight 6-yr lag between them (with temperature leading; r = 0.90). This suggests that the current leading trend of temperature, which had been downward, but now is upward, may portend a return to the more active state for intense hurricanes. Thus, the 1998 season (presuming the abatement of El Ninio prior to the start of the hurricane season), and for several years thereafter (at least, into the early years of the next millennium), may have an annual frequency of intense hurricanes that is commensurate with the previously observed active state that was seen prior to the mid 1960's. If true, then, the shift to the more active state, probably, occurred in the mid-to-late 1980's, apparently, having gone undetected because of the masking, or modulating, effect of El Ninio, which has been rampant since the mid-to-late 1980's.

Wilson, Robert M.↗

NASA NTRS1999

A Composite View of Lower Stratospheric Ozone Developed Using a Chemistry Transport Model and Observations from Airborne Lidar and Satellite

An ozone simulation from the Goddard three-dimensional chemistry and transport model for the 1995-96 northern hemisphere winter is compared with ozone observations from airborne Differential Absorption Lidar (DIAL), from the Polar Ozone and Aerosol Measurement (POAM), from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS), and from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE). The 3D model uses winds from the Goddard Data Assimilation System. The 3D model reproduces the latitude dependence of the horizontal and vertical ozone gradients of the subtropical DIAL observations. Comparisons with subtropical satellite observations, which lack the spatial resolution of DIAL but provide near continuous coverage throughout the subtropics, show that the model also reproduces longitude and temporal dependence in the tropical-midlatitude boundary. At polar latitudes, observations from DIAL flights on December 9 and January 30, and POAM and MLS between late December and late January are compared with the 3D model. Data from the three platforms consistently show that the observed ozone has a negative trend relative to the modeled ozone, and that the trend is uniform in time between early and mid winter, with no obvious dependence on proximity to the vortex edge.

Douglass, A. R.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Sources of Terrestrial Volatiles

Atmospheres are found enveloping those planets and satellites best able to hold them. The obvious conclusion is that volatile escape must have played nearly as great a role as volatile supply. A consequence of this view is that volatile supplies were probably much greater than the atmospheres that remain. The likeliest candidates are sources associated with the main events of planetary accretion itself such as volatile-rich planetesimals, or direct gravitational capture of nebular gases. Late asteroidal or cometary volatile-rich veneers are attractive, but they present quantitative difficulties. Comets in particular are inadequate, because the associated mass of stray comets that would have been scattered to the Oort Cloud or beyond is excessive. This difficulty applies to Uranus-Neptune planetesimals as well as to a putative massive early Kuiper Belt. Another potential problem with comets is that the D/H ratio in the three comets for which this has been measured is about twice that of Earth's oceans. Objects falling from a much augmented ancient asteroid belt remain a viable option, but timing is an issue: Can the depopulation of the asteroid belt be delayed long enough that it makes sense to talk of asteroids as a late veneer? Early accretion of asteroids as objects scattered into the maw of infant Earth makes more sense. Another appealing candidate population of volatile-rich objects for the inner solar system would be scattered planetesimals associated with the accretion of Jupiter, for two reasons: (1) Before there was Jupiter, there was no object in the solar system capable of expelling comets efficiently, and (2) the cross section of the inner solar system to stray objects was Greater when there were m many planetesimals.

Zahnle, K. J.↗