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NASA NTRS2007

Variations in Stratospheric Inorganic Chlorine Between 1991 and 2006

So how quickly will the ozone hole recover? This depends on how quickly the chlorine content (Cl2) of the atmosphere will decline. The ozone hole forms over the Antarctic each southern spring (September and October). The extremely small ozone amounts in the ozone hole are there because of chemical reactions of ozone with chlorine. This chlorine originates largely from industrially produced chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) compounds. An international agreement, the Montreal Protocol, is drastically reducing the amount of chlorine-containing compounds that we are releasing into the atmosphere. To be able to attribute changes in stratospheric ozone to changes in chlorine we need to know the distribution of atmospheric chlorine. However, due to a lack of continuous observations of all the key chlorine gases, producing a continuous time series of stratospheric chlorine has not been achieved to date. We have for the first time devised a technique to make a 17-year time series for stratospheric chlorine that uses the long time series of HCl observations made from several space borne instruments and a neural network. The neural networks allow us to both inter-calibrate the various HCl instruments and to infer the total amount of atmospheric chlorine from HCl. These new estimates of Cl, provide a much needed critical test for current global models that currently predict significant differences in both Cl(sub y) and ozone recovery. These models exhibit differences in their projection of the recovery time and our chlorine content time series will help separate the good from the bad in these projections.

Lary, D. J.↗

NASA NTRS2007

A Global Perspective: NASA's Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resources (POWER) Project

The Prediction of the Worldwide Energy Resources (POWER) Project, initiated under the NASA Science Mission Directorate Applied Science Energy Management Program, synthesizes and analyzes data on a global scale that are invaluable to the renewable energy industries, especially to the solar and wind energy sectors. The POWER project derives its data primarily from NASA's World Climate Research Programme (WCRP)/Global Energy and Water cycle Experiment (GEWEX) Surface Radiation Budget (SRB) project (Version 2.9) and the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) assimilation model (Version 4). The latest development of the NASA POWER Project and its plans for the future are presented in this paper.

Zhang, Taiping↗

NASA NTRS2007

Using High Frequency Passive Microwave, A-train, and TRMM Data to Evaluate Hydrometer Structure in the NASA GEOS-5 Data Assimilation System

Validating water vapor and prognostic condensate in global models remains a challenging research task. Model parameterizations are still subject to a large number of tunable parameters; furthermore, accurate and representative in situ observations are very sparse, and satellite observations historically have significant quantitative uncertainties. Progress on improving cloud / hydrometeor fields in models stands to benefit greatly from the growing inventory ofA-Train data sets. ill the present study we are using a variety of complementary satellite retrievals of hydrometeors to examine condensate produced by the emerging NASA Modem Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, MERRA, and its associated atmospheric general circulation model GEOS5. Cloud and precipitation are generated by both grid-scale prognostic equations and by the Relaxed Arakawa-Schubert (RAS) diagnostic convective parameterization. The high frequency channels (89 to 183.3 GHz) from AMSU-B and MRS on NOAA polar orbiting satellites are being used to evaluate the climatology and variability of precipitating ice from tropical convective anvils. Vertical hydrometeor structure from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and CloudSat radars are used to develop statistics on vertical hydrometeor structure in order to better interpret the extensive high frequency passive microwave climatology. Cloud liquid and ice water path data retrieved from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, MODIS, are used to investigate relationships between upper level cloudiness and tropical deep convective anvils. Together these data are used to evaluate cloud / ice water path, gross aspects of vertical hydrometeor structure, and the relationship between cloud extent and surface precipitation that the MERRA reanalysis must capture.

Robertson, Franklin↗

NASA NTRS2008

Transport of Aerosols: Regional and Global Implications for Climate, Weather, and Air Quality

Long-range transport of atmospheric aerosols can have a significant impact on global climate, regional weather, and local air quality. In this study, we use a global model GOCART together with satellite data and ground-based measurements to assess the emission and transport of pollution, dust, biomass burning, and volcanic aerosols and their implications. In particular, we will show the impact of emissions and long-range transport of aerosols from major pollution and dust source regions to (1) the surface air quality, (2) the atmospheric heating rates, and (3) surface radiation change near the source and downwind regions.

Chin, Mian↗

NASA NTRS2008

Application of an Ensemble Smoother to Precipitation Assimilation

Assimilation of precipitation in a global modeling system poses a special challenge in that the observation operators for precipitation processes are highly nonlinear. In the variational approach, substantial development work and model simplifications are required to include precipitation-related physical processes in the tangent linear model and its adjoint. An ensemble based data assimilation algorithm "Maximum Likelihood Ensemble Smoother (MLES)" has been developed to explore the ensemble representation of the precipitation observation operator with nonlinear convection and large-scale moist physics. An ensemble assimilation system based on the NASA GEOS-5 GCM has been constructed to assimilate satellite precipitation data within the MLES framework. The configuration of the smoother takes the time dimension into account for the relationship between state variables and observable rainfall. The full nonlinear forward model ensembles are used to represent components involving the observation operator and its transpose. Several assimilation experiments using satellite precipitation observations have been carried out to investigate the effectiveness of the ensemble representation of the nonlinear observation operator and the data impact of assimilating rain retrievals from the TMI and SSM/I sensors. Preliminary results show that this ensemble assimilation approach is capable of extracting information from nonlinear observations to improve the analysis and forecast if ensemble size is adequate, and a suitable localization scheme is applied. In addition to a dynamically consistent precipitation analysis, the assimilation system produces a statistical estimate of the analysis uncertainty.

Zhang, Sara↗

NASA NTRS2007

Improving Forecast Skill by Assimilation of Quality-controlled AIRS Temperature Retrievals under Partially Cloudy Conditions

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) on board the Aqua satellite has been long recognized as an important contributor towards the improvement of weather forecasts. At this time only a small fraction of the total data produced by AIRS is being used by operational weather systems. In fact, in addition to effects of thinning and quality control, the only AIRS data assimilated are radiance observations of channels unaffected by clouds. Observations in mid-lower tropospheric sounding AIRS channels are assimilated primarily under completely clear-sky conditions, thus imposing a very severe limitation on the horizontal distribution of the AIRS-derived information. In this work it is shown that the ability to derive accurate temperature profiles from AIRS observations in partially cloud-contaminated areas can be utilized to further improve the impact of AIRS observations in a global model and forecasting system. The analyses produced by assimilating AIRS temperature profiles obtained under partial cloud cover result in a substantially colder representation of the northern hemisphere lower midtroposphere at higher latitudes. This temperature difference has a strong impact, through hydrostatic adjustment, in the midtropospheric geopotential heights, which causes a different representation of the polar vortex especially over northeastern Siberia and Alaska. The AIRS-induced anomaly propagates through the model's dynamics producing improved 5-day forecasts.

Reale, O.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Comparison of NASA Team2 and AES-York Ice Concentration Algorithms Against Operational Ice Charts From the Canadian Ice Service

Ice concentration retrieved from spaceborne passive-microwave observations is a prime input to operational sea-ice-monitoring programs, numerical weather prediction models, and global climate models. Atmospheric Environment Service (AES)- York and the Enhanced National Aeronautics and Space Administration Team (NT2) are two algorithms that calculate ice concentration from Special Sensor Microwave/Imager observations. This paper furnishes a comparison between ice concentrations (total, thin, and thick types) output from NT2 and AES-York algorithms against the corresponding estimates from the operational analysis of Radarsat images in the Canadian Ice Service (CIS). A new data fusion technique, which incorporates the actual sensor's footprint, was developed to facilitate this study. Results have shown that the NT2 and AES-York algorithms underestimate total ice concentration by 18.35% and 9.66% concentration counts on average, with 16.8% and 15.35% standard deviation, respectively. However, the retrieved concentrations of thin and thick ice are in much more discrepancy with the operational CIS estimates when either one of these two types dominates the viewing area. This is more likely to occur when the total ice concentration approaches 100%. If thin and thick ice types coexist in comparable concentrations, the algorithms' estimates agree with CIS'S estimates. In terms of ice concentration retrieval, thin ice is more problematic than thick ice. The concept of using a single tie point to represent a thin ice surface is not realistic and provides the largest error source for retrieval accuracy. While AES-York provides total ice concentration in slightly more agreement with CIS'S estimates, NT2 provides better agreement in retrieving thin and thick ice concentrations.

Shokr, Mohammed↗

NASA NTRS2008

HIRDLS Observations and Simulation of a Lower Stratospheric Intrusion of Tropical Air to High Latitudes

On 26 January 2006, the High Resolution Dynamic Limb Sounder (HIRDLS) observed low mixing ratios of ozone and nitric acid in an approximately 2 km vertical layer near 100 hPa extending from the subtropics to 55 degrees N over North America. The subsequent evolution of the layer is simulated with the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) model and substantiated with HIRDLS observations. Air with low mixing ratios of ozone is transported poleward to 80 degrees N. Although there is evidence of mixing with extratropical air and diabatic descent, much of the tropical intrusion returns to the subtropics. This study demonstrates that HIRDLS and the GMI model are capable of resolving thin intrusion events. The observations combined with simulation are a first step towards development of a quantitative understanding of the lower stratospheric ozone budget.

Olsen, Mark A.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Evolution of the Earth Observing System (EOS) Data and Information System (EOSDIS)

One of the strategic goals of the U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is to "Develop a balanced overall program of science, exploration, and aeronautics consistent with the redirection of the human spaceflight program to focus on exploration". An important sub-goal of this goal is to "Study Earth from space to advance scientific understanding and meet societal needs." NASA meets this subgoal in partnership with other U.S. agencies and international organizations through its Earth science program. A major component of NASA s Earth science program is the Earth Observing System (EOS). The EOS program was started in 1990 with the primary purpose of modeling global climate change. This program consists of a set of space-borne instruments, science teams, and a data system. The instruments are designed to obtain highly accurate, frequent and global measurements of geophysical properties of land, oceans and atmosphere. The science teams are responsible for designing the instruments as well as scientific algorithms to derive information from the instrument measurements. The data system, called the EOS Data and Information System (EOSDIS), produces data products using those algorithms as well as archives and distributes such products. The first of the EOS instruments were launched in November 1997 on the Japanese satellite called the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and the last, on the U.S. satellite Aura, were launched in July 2004. The instrument science teams have been active since the inception of the program in 1990 and have participation from Brazil, Canada, France, Japan, Netherlands, United Kingdom and U.S. The development of EOSDIS was initiated in 1990, and this data system has been serving the user community since 1994. The purpose of this chapter is to discuss the history and evolution of EOSDIS since its beginnings to the present and indicate how it continues to evolve into the future. this chapter is organized as follows. Sect. 7.2 provides a discussion of EOSDIS, its elements and their functions. Sect. 7.3 provides details regarding the move towards more distributed systems for supporting both the core and community needs to be served by NASA Earth science data systems. Sect. 7.4 discusses the use of standards and interfaces and their importance in EOSDIS. Sect. 7.5 provides details about the EOSDIS Evolution Study. Sect. 7.6 presents the implementation of the EOSDIS Evolution plan. Sect. 7.7 briefly outlines the progress that the implementation has made towards the 2015 Vision, followed by a summary in Sect. 7.8.

Ramapriyan, Hampapuram K.↗

NASA NTRS2009

AIRS Impact on the Analysis and Forecast Track of Tropical Cyclone Nargis in a Global Data Assimilation and Forecasting System

Tropical cyclones in the northern Indian Ocean pose serious challenges to operational weather forecasting systems, partly due to their shorter lifespan and more erratic track, compared to those in the Atlantic and the Pacific. Moreover, the automated analyses of cyclones over the northern Indian Ocean, produced by operational global data assimilation systems (DASs), are generally of inferior quality than in other basins. In this work it is shown that the assimilation of Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) temperature retrievals under partial cloudy conditions can significantly impact the representation of the cyclone Nargis (which caused devastating loss of life in Myanmar in May 2008) in a global DAS. Forecasts produced from these improved analyses by a global model produce substantially smaller track errors. The impact of the assimilation of clear-sky radiances on the same DAS and forecasting system is positive, but smaller than the one obtained by ingestion of AIRS retrievals, possibly due to poorer coverage.

Reale, O.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Refactoring and Componentizing Legacy Codes: GMI Case Study

As Earth science applications grow increasingly complex over time, maintenance of such software becomes a significant challenge. In general, the software subsystems were designed, implemented and integrated (over an extended period of time) by different groups that did not follow the same software design standard. The objective was understandably to obtain scientific results quickly, but this goal was often achieved at the expense of good software practices. With that pattern of development, the cost of incremental changes to the applications grow ominously large. This increase in effort, tends to squeeze development resources and largely prevent any systematic attempt to reintroduce better software practices and thereby enhance the maintainability of the software. In this paper, we present the process we used to incrementally refactor and componentize the Global Modeling Initiative code to make it more understandable, maintainable, flexible and extensible. The resulting product not only preserves the scientific integrity of the original code but also extends the capabilities of the code for several applications.

Kouatchou, Jules↗

NASA NTRS2009

African Easterly Jet: Structure and Maintenance

This article investigates the African Easterly Jet (AEJ), its structure and the forcings contributing to its maintenance, critically revisiting previous work which attributed the maintenance of the jet to soil moisture gradients over tropical Africa. A state-of-the-art global model in a high-end computer framework is used to produce a 3-member 73-year ensemble run forced by observed SST to represent the Control run. The AEJ as produced by the Control is compared with the representation of the AEJ in the European Center for Medium Range Forecast Reanalyses (ERA-40) and other observational data sets and found very realistic. Five Experiments are then performed, each represented by sets of 3-member 22 year long (1980-2001) ensemble runs. The goal of the Experiments is to investigate the role of meridional soil moisture gradients, different land surface properties and orography. Unlike previous studies, which have suppressed soil moisture gradients within a highly idealized framework (i.e., the so-called bucket model), terrestrial evaporation control is here achieved with a highly sophisticated landsurface treatment and with an extensively tested and complex methodology. The results show that the AEJ is suppressed by a combination of absence of meridional evaporation gradients over Africa and constant vegetation, even if the individual forcings taken separately do not lead to the AEJ disappearance, but only its modification. Moreover, the suppression of orography also leads to a different circulation in which there is no AEJ. This work suggests that it is not just soil moisture gradients, but a unique combination of geographical features present only in northern tropical Africa, which causes and maintains the jet.

Wu, Man-Li C.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Issues in Data Fusion for Satellite Aerosol Measurements for Applications with GIOVANNI System at NASA GES DISC

We look at issues, barriers and approaches for Data Fusion of satellite aerosol data as available from the GES DISC GIOVANNI Web Service. Daily Global Maps of AOT from a single satellite sensor alone contain gaps that arise due to various sources (sun glint regions, clouds, orbital swath gaps at low latitudes, bright underlying surfaces etc.). The goal is to develop a fast, accurate and efficient method to improve the spatial coverage of the Daily AOT data to facilitate comparisons with Global Models. Data Fusion may be supplemented by Optimal Interpolation (OI) as needed.

Gopalan, Arun↗

NASA NTRS2009

Numerical Optimization of the Thermal Field in Bridgman Detached Growth

The global modeling of the thermal field in two vertical Bridgman-like crystal growth configurations, has been performed to get optimal thermal conditions for a successful detached growth of Ge and CdTe crystals. These computations are performed using the CrysMAS code and expand upon our previous analysis [1] that propose a new mechanism involving the thermal field and meniscus position to explain stable conditions for dewetted Bridgman growth. The analysis of the vertical Bridgman configuration with two heaters, used by Palosz et al. for the detached growth of Ge, shows, consistent with their results, that the large wetting angle of germanium on boron nitride surfaces was an important factor to promote a successful detached growth. Our computations predict that by initiating growth much higher into the hot zone of the furnace, the thermal conditions will be favorable for continued detachment even for systems that did not exhibit high contact angles. The computations performed for a vertical gradient freeze configuration with three heaters representative of that used for the detached growth of CdTe, show favorable thermal conditions for dewetting during the entirely growth run described. Improved thermal conditions are also predicted for coated silica crucibles when the solid-liquid interface advances higher into the hot zone during the solidification process. The second set of experiments on CdTe growth described elsewhere has shown the reattachment of the crystal to the crucible after few centimeters of dewetted growth. The thermal modeling of this configuration shows a second solidification front appearing at the top of the sample and approaching the middle line across the third heater. In these conditions, the crystal grows detached from the bottom, but will be attached to the crucible in the upper part because of the solidification without gap in this region. The solidification with two interfaces can be avoided when the top of the sample is positioned below the middle position of the third furnace.

Stelian, C.↗

NASA NTRS2009

A Local Scalable Distributed Expectation Maximization Algorithm for Large Peer-to-Peer Networks

This paper offers a local distributed algorithm for expectation maximization in large peer-to-peer environments. The algorithm can be used for a variety of well-known data mining tasks in a distributed environment such as clustering, anomaly detection, target tracking to name a few. This technology is crucial for many emerging peer-to-peer applications for bioinformatics, astronomy, social networking, sensor networks and web mining. Centralizing all or some of the data for building global models is impractical in such peer-to-peer environments because of the large number of data sources, the asynchronous nature of the peer-to-peer networks, and dynamic nature of the data/network. The distributed algorithm we have developed in this paper is provably-correct i.e. it converges to the same result compared to a similar centralized algorithm and can automatically adapt to changes to the data and the network. We show that the communication overhead of the algorithm is very low due to its local nature. This monitoring algorithm is then used as a feedback loop to sample data from the network and rebuild the model when it is outdated. We present thorough experimental results to verify our theoretical claims.

Bhaduri, Kanishka↗

NASA NTRS2008

Multispectral Emission of the Sun during the First Whole Sun Month: Magnetohydrodynamic Simulations

We demonstrate that a three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation of the corona can model its global plasma density and temperature structure with sufficient accuracy to reproduce many of the multispectral properties of the corona observed in extreme ultraviolet (EW) and X-ray emission. The key ingredient to this new type of global MHD model is the inclusion of energy transport processes (coronal heating, anisotropic thermal conduction, and radiative losses) in the energy equation. The calculation of these processes has previously been confined to one-dimensional loop models, idealized two-dimensional computations, and three-dimensional active region models. We refer to this as the thermodynamic MHD model, and we apply it to the time period of Carrington rotation 1913 (1996 August 22 to September 18). The form of the coronal heating term strongly affects the plasma density and temperature of the solutions. We perform our calculation for three different empirical heating models: (1) a heating function exponentially decreasing in radius; (2) the model of Schrijver et al.; and (3) a model reproducing the heating properties of the quiet Sun and active regions. We produce synthetic emission images from the density and temperature calculated with these three heating functions and quantitatively compare them with observations from E W Imaging Telescope on the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory and the soft X-ray telescope on Yohkoh. Although none of the heating models provide a perfect match, heating models 2 and 3 provide a reasonable match to the observations.

Lionello, Roberto↗

NASA NTRS2009

NASA Applied Sciences Program

NASA's strategic Goals: a) Develop a balanced overall program of science, exploration, and aeronautics consistent with the redirection of human spaceflight program to focus on exploration. b) Study Earth from space to advance scientific understanding and meet societal needs. NASA's partnership efforts in global modeling and data assimilation over the next decade will shorten the distance from observations to answers for important, leading-edge science questions. NASA's Applied Sciences program will continue the Agency's efforts in benchmarking the assimilation of NASA research results into policy and management decision-support tools that are vital for the Nation's environment, economy, safety, and security. NASA also is working with NOAH and inter-agency forums to transition mature research capabilities to operational systems, primarily the polar and geostationary operational environmental satellites, and to utilize fully those assets for research purposes.

Estes, Sue M.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Representing Functions in n Dimensions to Arbitrary Accuracy

A method of approximating a scalar function of n independent variables (where n is a positive integer) to arbitrary accuracy has been developed. This method is expected to be attractive for use in engineering computations in which it is necessary to link global models with local ones or in which it is necessary to interpolate noiseless tabular data that have been computed from analytic functions or numerical models in n-dimensional spaces of design parameters.

Scotti, Stephen J.↗