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At least 1,315 records · Page 73

Finding predictive models for singlet fission by machine learning

Singlet fission (SF), the conversion of one singlet exciton into two triplet excitons, could significantly enhance solar cell efficiency. Molecular crystals that undergo SF are scarce. Computational exploration may accelerate the discovery of SF materials. However, many-body perturbation theory (MBPT) calculations of the excitonic properties of molecular crystals are impractical for large-scale materials screening. We use the sure-independence-screening-and-sparsifying-operator (SISSO) machine-learning algorithm to generate computationally efficient models that can predict the MBPT thermodynamic driving force for SF for a dataset of 101 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH101). SISSO generates models by iteratively combining physical primary features. The best models are selected by linear regression with cross-validation. The SISSO models successfully predict the SF driving force with errors below 0.2 eV. Based on the cost, accuracy, and classification performance of SISSO models, we propose a hierarchical materials screening workflow. Three potential SF candidates are found in the PAH101 set.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Full-wave modeling of RF waves in fusion plasmas with finite element method: Progress in past decades and its future role

This paper reviews the progress in computing radio frequency (RF) wave fields in fusion plasmas, specifically focusing on simulations utilizing the finite element method (FEM) over the past few decades. Computing RF wave fields in fusion plasmas presents unique challenges due to large simulation domains, complex antenna structures, non-local dielectric properties, and wide ranges of spatial scales. It highlights key developments and outlines future directions, primarily addressing waves in the ion cyclotron (IC) to lower hybrid (LH) frequency range. We begin with briefly revisiting earlier developments before the widespread availability of modern computer-aided engineering (CAE) software based on FEM. This historical perspective illuminates early progress and the physics difficulties that motivated ongoing work within the community. Modern wave simulations for RF antennas based on FEM are characterized by the use of detailed 3D antenna model geometry generated from engineering CAD software and localized wave dielectric model. Significant advancements have also been made in improving physics models to include phenomena such as RF sheath rectification and wave scattering. FEM-based RF simulations have also been applied to compute wave propagation in the core region, where the inclusion of non-local dielectric response is crucial. This is a challenging goal, and several promising approaches have been proposed in this area. Additionally, RF simulation development initiatives based on open-source libraries have gained popularity, demonstrating scalability and flexibility in extending physics models. This paper will discuss the advantages and disadvantages of using such a publicly available FEM library.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Using aircraft measurements to characterize subgrid-scale variability of aerosol properties near the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Southern Great Plains site

Abstract. Complex distributions of aerosol properties evolve in space and time as a function of emissions, new particle formation, coagulation, condensational growth, chemical transformation, phase changes, turbulent mixing and transport, removal processes, and ambient meteorological conditions. The ability of chemical transport models to represent the multi-scale processes affecting the life cycle of aerosols depends on their spatial resolution since aerosol properties are assumed to be constant within a grid cell. Subgrid-scale-dependent processes that affect aerosol populations could have a significant impact on the formation of particles, their growth to cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) sizes, aerosol–cloud interactions, dry deposition and rainout and hence their burdens, lifetimes, and radiative forcing. To address this issue, we characterize subgrid-scale variability in terms of measured aerosol number, size, composition, hygroscopicity, and CCN concentrations made by repeated aircraft flight paths over the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program's Southern Great Plains (SGP) site during the Holistic Interactions of Shallow Clouds, Aerosols and Land Ecosystem (HI-SCALE) campaign. Subgrid variability is quantified in terms of both normalized frequency distributions and percentage difference percentiles using grid spacings of 3, 9, 27, and 81 km that represent those typically used by cloud-system-resolving models as well as the current and next-generation climate models. Even though the SGP site is a rural location, surprisingly large horizontal gradients in aerosol properties were frequently observed. For example, 90 % of the 3, 9, and 27 km cell mean organic matter concentrations differed from the 81 km cell around the SGP site by as much as ∼ 46 %, large spatial variability in aerosol number concentrations and size distributions were found during new particle formation events, and consequently 90 % of the 3, 9, and 27 km cell mean CCN number concentrations differed from the 81 km cell mean by as much as ∼ 38 %. The spatial variability varied seasonally for some aerosol properties, with some having larger spatial variability during the spring and others having larger variability during the late summer. While measurements at a single surface site cannot reflect the surrounding variability of aerosol properties at a given time, aircraft measurements that are averaged within an 81 km cell were found to be similar to many, but not all, aerosol properties measured at the ground SGP site. This analysis suggests that it is reasonable to directly compare most ground SGP site aerosol measurements with coarse global climate model predictions. In addition, the variability quantified by the aircraft can be used as an uncertainty range when comparing the surface point measurements with model predictions that use coarse grid spacings.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

3-D thermal analysis using finite difference technique with finite element model for improved design of components of rocket engine turbomachines for Space Shuttle Main Engine SSME

Three-dimensional finite element models were generated and transferred into three-dimensional finite difference models to perform transient thermal analyses for the SSME high pressure fuel turbopump's first stage nozzles and rotor blades. STANCOOL was chosen to calculate the heat transfer characteristics (HTCs) around the airfoils, and endwall effects were included at the intersections of the airfoils and platforms for the steady-state boundary conditions. Free and forced convection due to rotation effects were also considered in hollow cores. Transient HTCs were calculated by taking ratios of the steady-state values based on the flow rates and fluid properties calculated at each time slice. Results are presented for both transient plots and three-dimensional color contour isotherm plots; they were also converted into universal files to be used for FEM stress analyses.

Sohn, Kiho D.↗

Launch Vehicle Debris Models and Crew Vehicle Ascent Abort Risk

For manned space launch systems, a reliable abort system is required to reduce the risks associated with a launch vehicle failure during ascent. Understanding the risks associated with failure environments can be achieved through the use of physics-based models of these environments. Debris fields due to destruction of the launch vehicle is one such environment. To better analyze the risk posed by debris, a physics-based model for generating launch vehicle debris catalogs has been developed. The model predicts the mass distribution of the debris field based on formulae developed from analysis of explosions. Imparted velocity distributions are computed using a shock-physics code to model the explosions within the launch vehicle. A comparison of the debris catalog with an existing catalog for the Shuttle external tank show good comparison in the debris characteristics and the predicted debris strike probability. The model is used to analyze the effects of number of debris pieces and velocity distributions on the strike probability and risk.

Gee, Ken↗

Random Testing and Model Checking: Building a Common Framework for Nondeterministic Exploration

Two popular forms of dynamic analysis, random testing and explicit-state software model checking, are perhaps best viewed as search strategies for exploring the state spaces introduced by nondeterminism in program inputs. We present an approach that enables this nondeterminism to be expressed in the SPIN model checker's PROMELA language, and then lets users generate either model checkers or random testers from a single harness for a tested C program. Our approach makes it easy to compare model checking and random testing for models with precisely the same input ranges and probabilities and allows us to mix random testing with model checking's exhaustive exploration of non-determinism. The PROMELA language, as intended in its design, serves as a convenient notation for expressing nondeterminism and mixing random choices with nondeterministic choices. We present and discuss a comparison of random testing and model checking. The results derive from using our framework to test a C program with an effectively infinite state space, a module in JPL's next Mars rover mission. More generally, we show how the ability of the SPIN model checker to call C code can be used to extend SPIN's features, and hope to inspire others to use the same methods to implement dynamic analyses that can make use of efficient state storage, matching, and backtracking.

dynamic analysis↗

Time optimal control of a jet engine using a quasi-Hermite interpolation model

This work made preliminary efforts to generate nonlinear numerical models of a two-spooled turbofan jet engine, and subject these models to a known method of generating global, nonlinear, time optimal control laws. The models were derived numerically, directly from empirical data, as a first step in developing an automatic modelling procedure.

Comiskey, J. G.↗

Macro Analysis to Estimate Electric Vehicles Fast-Charging Infrastructure Requirements in Small Urban Areas

Electric vehicles (EVs) are known to reduce emissions and fossil fuel dependency. However, the limited range, long charging time, and inadequate charging infrastructure have hampered the adoption of EVs. The current EV charging infrastructure planning studies and tools require detailed information, extensive resources, and skills that can be a significant barrier to urban areas for finding the required charging infrastructure to support a targeted EV market share. This study generates regression models to estimate the number of direct current fast charging stations and the chargers to support the EV charging demand for urban areas. These models provide macro-level estimates of the required infrastructure investment in urban areas, which can be easily implemented by policy-makers and city planners. This study incorporates data obtained from applying a disaggregate optimization-based charger placement model, developed recently by the same authors, for multiple case studies to generate the required data to calibrate the macro-level models, in the state of Michigan. This simulated data set includes the number of charging stations and chargers for each market share, technology advancement scenario, and the transportation network topology. The results show that the number of charging stations reduces with battery size and charging power and increases with EV market share and the road network lane length. The number of chargers reduces with charging power, whereas it increases with battery size, EV market share, and vehicle miles traveled in the system. The model developed here can be applied to any state having urban characteristics and weather conditions similar to Michigan.

Engineering↗

Multi-fidelity physics-informed machine learning for probabilistic damage diagnosis

Machine learning (ML) models are gaining popularity in structural health monitoring (SHM) because of their ability to learn the complex relationship between damage and sensor data. However, the lack of sufficient experimental data for structures with different degrees of damage is a key problem in training ML models for SHM. This problem can be alleviated by using physics-based models to generate the required training data to build physics-informed ML (PIML) models for SHM. However, it takes significant computational effort to perform enough high-fidelity simulations of the diagnostic test. It is thus desirable to know whether the available computational resource budget should be expended on numerous low-fidelity physics simulations, or a small number of high-fidelity simulations, or their combination. In this paper, we investigate this aspect of generating adequate training data for PIML, by constructing multi-fidelity PIML models. We evaluate the performance of several PIML models, trained with different amounts of low-fidelity and high-fidelity data, in locating hidden cracks in concrete structures using a nonlinear dynamics-based diagnosis technique. Here, we find that high-fidelity physics simulations that do not cover the (test and damage) parameter space do not improve the performance of diagnostic PIML models built using data from many low-fidelity physics simulations.

42 ENGINEERING↗

From inclusive to semi-inclusive one-nucleon knockout in neutrino event generators

In neutrino event generators, for models for neutrino and electron scattering only inclusive cross sections are implemented. When these models are used to describe a semi-inclusive cross section, the event generator attaches the hadron variables based on some assumptions. In this work we compare the nucleon kinematics given by the method used in the GENIE event generator, e.g. in the implementation of the SuSAv2 model, to a fully unfactorized calculation using the relativistic distorted wave impulse approximation (RDWIA). We focus on kinematics relevant to the $e4\nu$ analysis and show that observables obtained with RDWIA differ significantly from those of the approximate method used in GENIE, the latter should be considered unrealistic.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

IDAES Enterprise: Generation Expansion Planning with Enhanced Requirements for Capacity Adequacy Under Renewable Intermittency

Achieving net zero carbon emissions likely requires future power systems to integrate new, flexible energy technologies to accommodate higher levels of capacity from variable renewable energy sources. To determine the optimal deployment of new electricity capacity and to study the likelihood of deployments of new energy technologies, an expansion planning model has been developed as part of the IDAES-Enterprise suite of grid models. The Generation Expansion Planning (GEP) model is a multi-period model in which investment decisions occur yearly, and a Unit Commitment (UC) problem is examined on an hourly timescale. To reduce computational complexity of the GEP model, the UC problem is solved for average “representative days” which leaves out extreme, but relatively common, scenarios in which low renewable generation occurs, leaving the system with inadequacy in capacity. The IDAES-Enterprise GEP model has been modified to include these extreme scenarios while keeping the model reasonably tractable. Specifically, a lazy constraint technique was implemented to check for capacity adequacy on an hourly basis over a large data set of aligned load-wind-solar profiles. As a vast majority of the capacity constraints will not be violated, the technique lowers computational expense by searching for violated capacity constraints over an “iterative manner,” adding those infeasible constraints back into the model. Results on a test case of the Southwest Power Pool shows that the lazy constraint technique significantly reduces retirements and increases installments of natural gas combined cycles and flexible natural gas units. It also reduces some retirements of coal units. These modifications provide a more reasonable estimation of required dispatchable power generation capacity to ensure feasibility during peak net load.

Liu, Peng↗

A Method for Generating Reduced-Order Linear Models of Multidimensional Supersonic Inlets

Simulation of high speed propulsion systems may be divided into two categories, nonlinear and linear. The nonlinear simulations are usually based on multidimensional computational fluid dynamics (CFD) methodologies and tend to provide high resolution results that show the fine detail of the flow. Consequently, these simulations are large, numerically intensive, and run much slower than real-time. ne linear simulations are usually based on large lumping techniques that are linearized about a steady-state operating condition. These simplistic models often run at or near real-time but do not always capture the detailed dynamics of the plant. Under a grant sponsored by the NASA Lewis Research Center, Cleveland, Ohio, a new method has been developed that can be used to generate improved linear models for control design from multidimensional steady-state CFD results. This CFD-based linear modeling technique provides a small perturbation model that can be used for control applications and real-time simulations. It is important to note the utility of the modeling procedure; all that is needed to obtain a linear model of the propulsion system is the geometry and steady-state operating conditions from a multidimensional CFD simulation or experiment. This research represents a beginning step in establishing a bridge between the controls discipline and the CFD discipline so that the control engineer is able to effectively use multidimensional CFD results in control system design and analysis.

Chicatelli, Amy↗

Development of a high temperature pyrolysis mechanism for cyclopentanone, a potential biofuel derived from biomass

Cyclopentanone (CPO) is a promising biofuel for spark-ignition engines due to its ring strain and high auto-ignition resistance. The Department of Energy has identified CPO as a potential biofuel candidate because of its unique chemical properties. Understanding CPO decomposition is crucial to building a high-temperature combustion model. In this study, we present a comprehensive kinetic model for high-temperature pyrolysis of CPO with verified results from high-pressure shock tube (HPST) measurements. The time histories of carbon monoxide (CO), ethylene (C2H4), and CPO absorbances over the temperature range of 1156-1416 K and 8.53-10.06 atm were measured. A corresponding kinetic model was generated using the Reaction Mechanism Generator (RMG) with the parameters of dominant pathways from either previous studies or quantum calculation within current work. The final model containing 821 species and 79,859 reactions exhibited a good agreement with the experimental results. In this study, the C2H4/CO ratio was used as an essential factor to validate the model and to prove that radical-involved bimolecular pathways were as significant as unimolecular decomposition of CPO. The rate of production (ROP) analysis showed that H radicals play major roles in both primary reactions and product pyrolysis. The insights from this work can be used to generate a better CPO combustion model and help evaluate CPO as a biofuel. Such understanding can also be helpful when proposing pyrolysis or combustion models for other biofuels.

cyclopentanone, reaction mechanism, pyrolysis, sho↗

Lidar-Based Estimates of Above-Ground Biomass in the Continental US and Mexico Using Ground, Airborne, and Satellite Observations

Existing national forest inventory plots, an airborne lidar scanning (ALS) system, and a space profiling lidar system (ICESat-GLAS) are used to generate circa 2005 estimates of total aboveground dry biomass (AGB) in forest strata, by state, in the continental United States (CONUS) and Mexico. The airborne lidar is used to link ground observations of AGB to space lidar measurements. Two sets of models are generated, the first relating ground estimates of AGB to airborne laser scanning (ALS) measurements and the second set relating ALS estimates of AGB (generated using the first model set) to GLAS measurements. GLAS then, is used as a sampling tool within a hybrid estimation framework to generate stratum-, state-, and national-level AGB estimates. A two-phase variance estimator is employed to quantify GLAS sampling variability and, additively, ALS-GLAS model variability in this current, three-phase (ground-ALS-space lidar) study. The model variance component characterizes the variability of the regression coefficients used to predict ALS-based estimates of biomass as a function of GLAS measurements. Three different types of predictive models are considered in CONUS to determine which produced biomass totals closest to ground-based national forest inventory estimates - (1) linear (LIN), (2) linear-no-intercept (LNI), and (3) log-linear. For CONUS at the national level, the GLAS LNI model estimate (23.95 +/- 0.45 Gt AGB), agreed most closely with the US national forest inventory ground estimate, 24.17 +/- 0.06 Gt, i.e., within 1%. The national biomass total based on linear ground-ALS and ALS-GLAS models (25.87 +/- 0.49 Gt) overestimated the national ground-based estimate by 7.5%. The comparable log-linear model result (63.29 +/-1.36 Gt) overestimated ground results by 261%. All three national biomass GLAS estimates, LIN, LNI, and log-linear, are based on 241,718 pulses collected on 230 orbits. The US national forest inventory (ground) estimates are based on 119,414 ground plots. At the US state level, the average absolute value of the deviation of LNI GLAS estimates from the comparable ground estimate of total biomass was 18.8% (range: Oregon,−40.8% to North Dakota, 128.6%). Log-linear models produced gross overestimates in the continental US, i.e., N2.6x, and the use of this model to predict regional biomass using GLAS data in temperate, western hemisphere forests is not appropriate. The best model form, LNI, is used to produce biomass estimates in Mexico. The average biomass density in Mexican forests is 53.10 +/- 0.88 t/ha, and the total biomass for the country, given a total forest area of 688,096 sq km, is 3.65 +/- 0.06 Gt. In Mexico, our GLAS biomass total underestimated a 2005 FAO estimate (4.152 Gt) by 12% and overestimated a 2007/8 radar study's figure (3.06 Gt) by 19%.

Hybrid 3-Phase sampling↗

Revealing the critical role of radical-involved pathways in high temperature cyclopentanone pyrolysis

Cyclopentanone (CPO) is a promising biofuel for spark-ignition engines due to its ring strain and high auto-ignition resistance. Understanding CPO decomposition is crucial for building a high-temperature combustion model. Here we present a comprehensive kinetic model for high-temperature pyrolysis of CPO with verified results from high-pressure shock tube (HPST) measurements. The time- histories of carbon monoxide (CO), ethylene (C 2 H 4 ), and CPO absorbances over the temperature range of 1156-1416 K and pressure range of 8.53-10.06 atm were measured during current experiments. A corresponding detailed kinetic model was generated using the Reaction Mechanism Generator (RMG) with dominant unimolecular/radical-involved decomposition pathways from either previous studies or quantum calculations within the current work. The obtained model containing 821 species and 79,859 reactions exhibited a good agreement with the experimental results. In this study, the absorbance ratio between C 2 H 4 and CO was used as an important factor to validate models and to prove that radical-involved bimolecular pathways were as significant as unimolecular decomposition of CPO. The rate of production (ROP) analysis showed H radicals play a major role in the decomposition, and the whole decomposition process could be divided into three stages based on the H radical concentration. Finally, the insights from present work can be used to generate a better CPO combustion model and help evaluate CPO as an advanced biofuel.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

A computational model-based validation of Guyton's analysis of cardiac output and venous return curves

Guyton developed a popular approach for understanding the factors responsible for cardiac output (CO) regulation in which 1) the heart-lung unit and systemic circulation are independently characterized via CO and venous return (VR) curves, and 2) average CO and right atrial pressure (RAP) of the intact circulation are predicted by graphically intersecting the curves. However, this approach is virtually impossible to verify experimentally. We theoretically evaluated the approach with respect to a nonlinear, computational model of the pulsatile heart and circulation. We developed two sets of open circulation models to generate CO and VR curves, differing by the manner in which average RAP was varied. One set applied constant RAPs, while the other set applied pulsatile RAPs. Accurate prediction of intact, average CO and RAP was achieved only by intersecting the CO and VR curves generated with pulsatile RAPs because of the pulsatility and nonlinearity (e.g., systemic venous collapse) of the intact model. The CO and VR curves generated with pulsatile RAPs were also practically independent. This theoretical study therefore supports the validity of Guyton's graphical analysis.

NASA Discipline Cardiopulmonary↗

The generation and use of numerical shape models for irregular Solar System objects

We describe a procedure that allows the efficient generation of numerical shape models for irregular Solar System objects, where a numerical model is simply a table of evenly spaced body-centered latitudes and longitudes and their associated radii. This modeling technique uses a combination of data from limbs, terminators, and control points, and produces shape models that have some important advantages over analytical shape models. Accurate numerical shape models make it feasible to study irregular objects with a wide range of standard scientific analysis techniques. These applications include the determination of moments of inertia and surface gravity, the mapping of surface locations and structural orientations, photometric measurement and analysis, the reprojection and mosaicking of digital images, and the generation of albedo maps. The capabilities of our modeling procedure are illustrated through the development of an accurate numerical shape model for Phobos and the production of a global, high-resolution, high-pass-filtered digital image mosaic of this Martian moon. Other irregular objects that have been modeled, or are being modeled, include the asteroid Gaspra and the satellites Deimos, Amalthea, Epimetheus, Janus, Hyperion, and Proteus.

Simonelli, Damon P.↗

Direct Bayesian inference for fault severity assessment in Digital-Twin-Based fault diagnosis

For applications in condition-based maintenance of nuclear systems, the assessment of fault severity is crucial. In this work, we developed a framework that allows for direct inference of the probability distributions of possible faults in a system. Here, we employed a model-based approach with model residuals generated from analytical redundancy relations provided by physics-based models of the system components. From real-time sensor readings, the values of the model residuals can be calculated, and the posterior probability distributions of the faults can be computed directly using the methods of Bayesian networks. From the posterior distribution of each fault, one can estimate the fault probability based on a chosen threshold and assess the severity of the fault. By eliminating the discretization and simplifications in middle steps, this approach allows us to leverage the available computational resources to provide more accurate fault probability estimates and severity assessments.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗