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NASA NTRS2004

Determining the Optimum Post Spacing of LIDAR-Derived Elevation Data in Varying Terrain for Flood Hazard Mapping Purposes in North Carolina and Texas

The major flood events in the United States in the past few years have made it apparent that many floodplain maps being used by State governments are outdated and inaccurate. In response, many Stated have begun to update their Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Digital Flood Insurance Rate Maps. Accurate topographic data is one of the most critical inputs for floodplain analysis and delineation. Light detection and ranging (LIDAR) altimetry is one of the primary remote sensing technologies that can be used to obtain high-resolution and high-accuracy digital elevation data suitable for hydrologic and hydraulic (H&H) modeling, in part because of its ability to "penetrate" various cover types and to record geospatial data from the Earth's surface. However, the posting density or spacing at which LIDAR collects the data will affect the resulting accuracies of the derived bare Earth surface, depending on terrain type and land cover type. For example, flat areas are thought to require higher or denser postings than hilly areas to capture subtle changes in the topography that could have a significant effect on flooding extent. Likewise, if an area has dense understory and overstory, it may be difficult to receive LIDAR returns from the Earth's surface, which would affect the accuracy of that bare Earth surface and thus would affect flood model results. For these reasons, NASA and FEMA have partnered with the State of North Carolina and with the U.S./Mexico Foundation in Texas to assess the effect of LIDAR point density on the characterization of topographic variation and on H&H modeling results for improved floodplain mapping. Research for this project is being conducted in two areas of North Carolina and in the City of Brownsville, Texas, each with a different type of terrain and varying land cover/land use. Because of various project constraints, LIDAR data were acquired once at a high posting density and then decimated to coarser postings or densities. Quality assurance/quality control analyses were performed on each dataset. Cross sections extracted form the high density and then the decimated datasets were individually input into an H&H model to determine the model's sensitivity to topographic variation and the effect of that variation on the resulting water profiles. Additional analysis was performed on the Brownsville, Texas, LIDAR data to determine the percentage of returns that "penetrated" various types of canopy or vegetative cover. It is hoped that the results of these studies will benefit state and local communities as they consider the post spacing at which to acquire LIDAR data (which affects cost) and will benefit FEMA as the Agency assesses the use of different technologies for updating National Flood Insurance Program and related products.

Berglund, Judith↗

DOE OSTI2020

Simulating and Evaluating Atmospheric River-Induced Precipitation Extremes Along the U.S. Pacific Coast: Case Studies From 1980–2017

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are responsible for a majority of extreme precipitation and floodevents along the U.S. West Coast. To better understand the present-day characteristics of AR-relatedprecipitation extremes, a selection of nine most intense historical AR events during 1980–2017 is simulatedusing a dynamical downscaling modeling framework based on the Weather Research and ForecastingModel. We find that the chosen framework and Weather Research and Forecasting Model configurationreproduces both large-scale atmospheric features—including parent synoptic-scale cyclones—as well asthe filamentary corridors of integrated vapor transport associated with the ARs themselves. The accuracyof simulated extreme precipitation maxima, relative to in situ and interpolated gridded observations,improves notably with increasing model resolution, with improvements as large as 40–60% for fine scale(3 km) relative to coarse-scale (27 km) simulations. A separate set of simulations using smoothedtopography suggests that much of these gains stem from the improved representation of complex terrain.Additionally, using the 12 December 1995 storm in Northern California as an example, we demonstratethat only the highest-resolution simulations resolve important fine-scale features—such as localizedorographically forced vertical motion and powerful near hurricane-force boundary layer winds. Given thedemonstrated ability of a targeted dynamical downscaling framework to capture both local extremeprecipitation and key fine-scale characteristics of the most intense ARs in the historical record, we arguethat such a configuration may be highly conducive to understanding AR-related extremes and associatedchanges in a warming climate

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2017

Using High Spatial Resolution Satellite Imagery to Map Forest Burn Severity Across Spatial Scales in a Pine Barrens Ecosystem

As a primary disturbance agent, fire significantly influences local processes and services of forest ecosystems. Although a variety of remote sensing based approaches have been developed and applied to Landsat mission imagery to infer burn severity at 30 m spatial resolution, forest burn severity have still been seldom assessed at fine spatial scales (less than or equal to 5 m) from very-high-resolution (VHR) data. We assessed a 432 ha forest fire that occurred in April 2012 on Long Island, New York, within the Pine Barrens region, a unique but imperiled fire-dependent ecosystem in the northeastern United States. The mapping of forest burn severity was explored here at fine spatial scales, for the first time using remotely sensed spectral indices and a set of Multiple Endmember Spectral Mixture Analysis (MESMA) fraction images from bi-temporal - pre- and post-fire event - WorldView-2 (WV-2) imagery at 2 m spatial resolution. We first evaluated our approach using 1 m by 1 m validation points at the sub-crown scale per severity class (i.e. unburned, low, moderate, and high severity) from the post-fire 0.10 m color aerial ortho-photos; then, we validated the burn severity mapping of geo-referenced dominant tree crowns (crown scale) and 15 m by 15 m fixed-area plots (inter-crown scale) with the post-fire 0.10 m aerial ortho-photos and measured crown information of twenty forest inventory plots. Our approach can accurately assess forest burn severity at the sub-crown (overall accuracy is 84% with a Kappa value of 0.77), crown (overall accuracy is 82% with a Kappa value of 0.76), and inter-crown scales (89% of the variation in estimated burn severity ratings (i.e. Geo-Composite Burn Index (CBI)). This work highlights that forest burn severity mapping from VHR data can capture heterogeneous fire patterns at fine spatial scales over the large spatial extents. This is important since most ecological processes associated with fire effects vary at the less than 30 m scale and VHR approaches could significantly advance our ability to characterize fire effects on forest ecosystems.

Meng, Ran↗

NASA NTRS1991

Minimum fuel coplanar aeroassisted orbital transfer using collocation and nonlinear programming

The fuel optimal control problem arising in coplanar orbital transfer employing aeroassisted technology is addressed. The mission involves the transfer from high energy orbit (HEO) to low energy orbit (LEO) without plane change. The basic approach here is to employ a combination of propulsive maneuvers in space and aerodynamic maneuvers in the atmosphere. The basic sequence of events for the coplanar aeroassisted HEO to LEO orbit transfer consists of three phases. In the first phase, the transfer begins with a deorbit impulse at HEO which injects the vehicle into a elliptic transfer orbit with perigee inside the atmosphere. In the second phase, the vehicle is optimally controlled by lift and drag modulation to satisfy heating constraints and to exit the atmosphere with the desired flight path angle and velocity so that the apogee of the exit orbit is the altitude of the desired LEO. Finally, the second impulse is required to circularize the orbit at LEO. The performance index is maximum final mass. Simulation results show that the coplanar aerocapture is quite different from the case where orbital plane changes are made inside the atmosphere. In the latter case, the vehicle has to penetrate deeper into the atmosphere to perform the desired orbital plane change. For the coplanar case, the vehicle needs only to penetrate the atmosphere deep enough to reduce the exit velocity so the vehicle can be captured at the desired LEO. The peak heating rates are lower and the entry corridor is wider. From the thermal protection point of view, the coplanar transfer may be desirable. Parametric studies also show the maximum peak heating rates and the entry corridor width are functions of maximum lift coefficient. The problem is solved using a direct optimization technique which uses piecewise polynomial representation for the states and controls and collocation to represent the differential equations. This converts the optimal control problem into a nonlinear programming problem which is solved numerically by using a modified version of NPSOL. Solutions were obtained for the described problem for cases with and without heating constraints. The method appears to be more robust than other optimization methods. In addition, the method can handle complex dynamical constraints.

Shi, Yun Yuan↗

DOE OSTI2024

Forest carbon sequestration on the west coast, USA: Role of species, productivity, and stockability

Forest ecosystems store large amounts of carbon and can be important sources, or sinks, of the atmospheric carbon dioxide that is contributing to global warming. Understanding the carbon storage potential of different forests and their response to management and disturbance events are fundamental to developing policies and scenarios to partially offset greenhouse gas emissions. Projections of live tree carbon accumulation are handled differently in different models, with inconsistent results. We developed growth-and-yield style models to predict stand-level live tree carbon density as a function of stand age in all vegetation types of the coastal Pacific region, US (California, Oregon, and Washington), from 7,523 national forest inventory plots. We incorporated site productivity and stockability within the Chapman-Richards equation and tested whether intensively managed private forests behaved differently from less managed public forests. We found that the best models incorporated stockability in the equation term controlling stand carrying capacity, and site productivity in the equation terms controlling the growth rate and shape of the curve. RMSEs ranged from 10 to 137 Mg C/ha for different vegetation types. There was not a significant effect of ownership over the standard industrial rotation length (~50 yrs) for the productive Douglas-fir/western hemlock zone, indicating that differences in stockability and productivity captured much of the variation attributed to management intensity. Our models suggest that doubling the rotation length on these intensively managed lands from 35 to 70 years would result in 2.35 times more live tree carbon stored on the landscape. These findings are at odds with some studies that have projected higher carbon densities with stand age for the same vegetation types, and have not found an increase in yields (on an annual basis) with longer rotations. We suspect that differences are primarily due to the application of yield curves developed from fully-stocked, undisturbed, single-species, “normal” stands without accounting for the substantial proportion of forests that don’t meet those assumptions. The carbon accumulation curves developed here can be applied directly in growth-and-yield style projection models, and used to validate the predictions of ecophysiological, cohort, or single-tree style models being used to project carbon futures for forests in the region. Our approach may prove useful for developing robust models in other forest types.

Chisholm, Paul J. (ORCID:0000000238784707)↗

NASA NTRS2004

Simulation of the Onset of the Southeast Asian Monsoon During 1997 and 1998: The Impact of Surface Processes

The onset of the southeast Asian monsoon during 1997 and 1998 was simulated with a coupled mesoscale atmospheric model (MM5) and a detailed land surface model. The rainfall results from the simulations were compared with observed satellite data from the TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) TMI (TRMM Microwave Imager) and GPCP (Global Precipitation Climatology Project). The simulation with the land surface model captured basic signatures of the monsoon onset processes and associated rainfall statistics. The sensitivity tests indicated that land surface processes had a greater impact on the simulated rainfall results than that of a small sea surface temperature change during the onset period. In both the 1997 and 1998 cases, the simulations were significantly improved by including the land surface processes. The results indicated that land surface processes played an important role in modifying the low-level wind field over two major branches of the circulation; the southwest low-level flow over the Indo-China peninsula and the northern cold front intrusion from southern China. The surface sensible and latent heat exchange between the land and atmosphere modified the low-level temperature distribution and gradient, and therefore the low-level. The more realistic forcing of the sensible and latent heat from the detailed land surface model improved the monsoon rainfall and associated wind simulation. The model results will be compared to the simulation of the 6-7 May 2000 Missouri flash flood event. In addition, the impact of model initialization and land surface treatment on timing, intensity, and location of extreme precipitation will be examined.

Tao, W.-K.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Simulation of the Onset of the Southeast Asian Monsoon during 1997 and 1998: The Impact of Surface Processes

Tao, W.-K.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Coupling Mars' Dust and Water Cycles: Effects on Dust Lifting Vigor, Spatial Extent and Seasonality

The dust cycle is an important component of Mars' current climate system. Airborne dust affects the radiative balance of the atmosphere, thus greatly influencing the thermal and dynamical state of the atmosphere. Dust raising events on Mars occur at spatial scales ranging from meters to planet-wide. Although the occurrence and season of large regional and global dust storms are highly variable from one year to the next, there are many features of the dust cycle that occur year after year. Generally, a low-level dust haze is maintained during northern spring and summer, while elevated levels of atmospheric dust occur during northern autumn and winter. During years without global-scale dust storms, two peaks in total dust loading were observed by MGS/TES: one peak occurred before northern winter solstice at Ls 200-240, and one peak occurred after northern winter solstice at L(sub s) 305-340. These maxima in dust loading are thought to be associated with transient eddy activity in the northern hemisphere, which has been observed to maximize pre- and post-solstice. Interactive dust cycle studies with Mars General Circulation Models (MGCMs) have included the lifting, transport, and sedimentation of radiatively active dust. Although the predicted global dust loadings from these simulations capture some aspects of the observed dust cycle, there are marked differences between the simulated and observed dust cycles. Most notably, the maximum dust loading is robustly predicted by models to occur near northern winter solstice and is due to dust lifting associated with down slope flows on the flanks of the Hellas basin. Thus far, models have had difficulty simulating the observed pre- and post- solstice peaks in dust loading. Interactive dust cycle studies typically have not included the formation of water ice clouds or their radiative effects. Water ice clouds can influence the dust cycle by scavenging dust from atmosphere and by interacting with solar and infrared radiation, thereby modifying the thermal structure of the atmosphere and its circulation. Results presented in other papers at this workshop show that including the radiative effects of water ice clouds greatly influence the water cycle and the vigor of weather systems in both the northern and southern hemispheres. Our goal is to investigate the effects of fully coupling the dust and water cycles on the dust cycle. We show that including water ice clouds and their radiative effects greatly affect the magnitude, spatial extent and seasonality of dust lifting and the season of maximum atmospheric dust loading.

Kahre, M. A.↗

DOE OSTI2025

High resolution variability in wet deposition in the southeastern United States

Rainwater chemistry is determined by atmospheric pollutants and particles which vary spatially and temporally. Industrial and agricultural activities and meteorological events (e.g. sea breezes, severe weather, blowing dust) alter atmospheric particle and trace gas compositions. These gases and particles are scavenged by cloud and rain droplets that drive wet deposition. During an Intensive Operation Period (IOP) from April to October 2021, rainwater was collected at higher frequency intervals, usually daily, after precipitation events at three locations on the Savannah River Site (SRS). The farthest locations were separated by approximately 20 km. The mean concentration (μeq/L) of seven ions followed the Cl⁻ > SO 4 2− > Na⁺ > NO 3 ⁻ > K⁺ > Mg 2+ > Ca 2+ downward trend. Ion concentrations were compared to background ion concentrations from the National Atmospheric Deposition Program (NADP). The high frequency monthly averaged SRS data compared well with the monthly averaged NADP background but demonstrated extensive variability. In some months in 2021, the high frequency data compared better to the NADP site near the coast while in other months inland sites compared better. Strong spatial variability for ion concentrations was observed across SRS which was attributed to localized impacts in rainfall spatial variability. High frequency measurements allowed for comparison to regional weather patterns indicating influences from the Atlantic Ocean, Gulf of Mexico, and cities. This can account for spatial variability in the wet deposition flux. Sea breezes, Saharan dust, and anthropogenic sources were shown to impact wet deposition flux variability. Higher frequency precipitation chemistry sampling at numerous locations better captures ion concentration variability and improves measurement representativeness.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2002

Console Log Keeping Made Easier - Tools and Techniques for Improving Quality of Flight Controller Activity Logs

At the Marshall Space Flight Center's (MSFC) Payload Operations Integration Center (POIC) for International Space Station (ISS), each flight controller maintains detailed logs of activities and communications at their console position. These logs are critical for accurately controlling flight in real-time as well as providing a historical record and troubleshooting tool. This paper describes logging methods and electronic formats used at the POIC and provides food for thought on their strengths and limitations, plus proposes some innovative extensions. It also describes an inexpensive PC-based scheme for capturing and/or transcribing audio clips from communications consoles. Flight control activity (e.g. interpreting computer displays, entering data/issuing electronic commands, and communicating with others) can become extremely intense. It's essential to document it well, but the effort to do so may conflict with actual activity. This can be more than just annoying, as what's in the logs (or just as importantly not in them) often feeds back directly into the quality of future operations, whether short-term or long-term. In earlier programs, such as Spacelab, log keeping was done on paper, often using position-specific shorthand, and the other reader was at the mercy of the writer's penmanship. Today, user-friendly software solves the legibility problem and can automate date/time entry, but some content may take longer to finish due to individual typing speed and less use of symbols. File layout can be used to great advantage in making types of information easy to find, and creating searchable master logs for a given position is very easy and a real lifesaver in reconstructing events or researching a given topic. We'll examine log formats from several console position, and the types of information that are included and (just as importantly) excluded. We'll also look at when a summary or synopsis is effective, and when extensive detail is needed.

Scott, David W.↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Probabilistic Model for Global EMIC Wave Activity Using Van Allen Probes Observations

Electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) waves play a key role in radiation belt dynamics through resonant interactions. However, their low occurrence probability, high variability, and spatial intermittency pose challenges for accurate modeling. In this study, we present a machine learning (ML)-based global EMIC wave model built on the entire data set from the Van Allen Probes mission. To capture the distinct statistical characteristics of wave occurrence and amplitude, the model is separated into two modules: an occurrence model trained using ML techniques, and a wave amplitude model sampled from observed probability distributions. The input parameters are limited to real-time or predictable variables to ensure practical applicability. Our model shows strong performance across the entire test set and demonstrates improved predictive capability over a baseline random occurrence model, particularly during quiet geomagnetic conditions. Evaluation during both quiet and active periods confirms the model's ability to represent the clustered and intermittent nature of EMIC wave activity. Furthermore, the model provides global estimates of wave power, enabling integration with radiation belt electron data and showing signatures consistent with wave-induced scattering. We found a good correlation between the global wave activity from the model and relativistic electron observation by Van Allen Probes, regardless of the availability of in situ wave observations. The modular structure of the model also allows for straightforward expansion for additional wave properties, such as wave frequency, which can be modeled independently. This flexible, event-sensitive approach offers a promising framework for data-driven radiation belt simulations and space weather applications.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Optimisation of the Search for CP-symmetry Violation at the Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment

The Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE) is a next-generation long baseline experiment, which will be situated in South Dakota. Its detectors will utilise liquid-argon time projection chamber technology, which is able to capture neutrino interactions with an incredible spatial and calorimetric resolution. With what will become the world’s most intense neutrino beam, a highly capable near detector, and four (10kt fducial mass) far detector modules, DUNE will be able to achieve an ambitious physics programme. Most notably, DUNE will determine whether charge-parity symmetry is broken in neutrino oscillations - a finding that would have significant implications for the understanding of the matter-antimatter asymmetry in our Universe.This thesis presents the optimisation of a CP-violation analysis at DUNE using thePandora pattern-recognition software. The analysis assumes a 3.5 year exposure (1.36 × 1023 protons on target) to a neutrino and an antineutrino beam (7 year total). Only the predicted data of the far detector modules is used; near detector samples are not included. The initial sensitivity to CP-violation is found to be 3.8σ+0.9σ−1.1σ in an estimate that includes oscillation parameter uncertainties, systematic uncertainties and statistical fluctuations, and assumes a normal-ordering of the neutrino mass hierarchy. The performance of the Pandora event reconstruction is linked to that of the analysis, which is found to be limited by the reconstruction of the initial track-like region of electrons and photons. The ShowerRefinement algorithm is developed in response to this and its implementation into the analysis workflow results in an improved sensitivity to CP-violation of 4.6σ+0.9σ−1.0σ. With a perfected neutrino interaction vertex placement, this is further increased to 5.1σ+1.0σ−1.1σ.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Photonuclear Production of Radioxenon for Air Samples

Radioxenon plays an important role in ensuring compliance with the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty due to its ability to be transported through the atmosphere, as well as the fact that the half-lives of its isotopes provide a window long enough to be detected but not long enough that it could become background radiation. This allows it to be correlated with specific events that indicate the testing of nuclear weapons. Idaho National Laboratory supports this mission by providing spiked air samples for monitoring stations to enable instrument calibration and ensure measurement accuracy. We tested a photonuclear method of producing one of the main isotopes of radioxenon, Xe-135. We also tested the separation of Xe-135 from the parent isotope Xe-136 using the method of kinematic recoil. Aluminum coils were placed in quartz ampoules filled with enriched Xe-136 and were irradiated by a bremsstrahlung beam with an endpoint energy of 21 MeV. The results showed that we were not only successful in producing Xe-135 but also that the Xe-135 was deposited into the coil allowing it to be removed from the Xe-136 gas. The coil and the Xe-135 can then be chemically separated. At the time of counting the coil, it was calculated that there was about 18 Bq of activity from Xe-135 remaining in the coil. Future work includes determining the optimal material and geometry of the catcher to maximize the amount of Xe-135 captured.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Superheavy Elements in Kilonovae

Abstract As LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA enters its fourth observing run, a new opportunity to search for electromagnetic counterparts of compact object mergers will also begin. The light curves and spectra from the first “kilonova” associated with a binary neutron star merger (NSM) suggests that these sites are hosts of the rapid neutron capture (“ r ”) process. However, it is unknown just how robust elemental production can be in mergers. Identifying signposts of the production of particular nuclei is critical for fully understanding merger-driven heavy-element synthesis. In this study, we investigate the properties of very neutron-rich nuclei for which superheavy elements ( Z ≥ 104) can be produced in NSMs and whether they can similarly imprint a unique signature on kilonova light-curve evolution. A superheavy-element signature in kilonovae represents a route to establishing a lower limit on heavy-element production in NSMs as well as possibly being the first evidence of superheavy-element synthesis in nature. Favorable NSM conditions yield a mass fraction of superheavy elements X Z ≥104 ≈ 3 × 10 −2 at 7.5 hr post-merger. With this mass fraction of superheavy elements, we find that the component of kilonova light curves possibly containing superheavy elements may appear similar to those arising from lanthanide-poor ejecta. Therefore, photometric characterizations of superheavy-element rich kilonova may possibly misidentify them as lanthanide-poor events.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1999

Mesoscale Variations of Biogeochemical Properties in the Sargasso Sea

A mesoscale resolution biogeochemical survey was carried out in the vicinity of the U.S. Joint Global Ocean Flux Study Bermuda Atlantic Time-series Study (BATS) site during the summer of 1996. Real-time nowcasting and forecasting of the flow field facilitated adaptive sampling of several eddy features in the area. Variations in upper ocean nutrient and pigment distributions were largely controlled by vertical isopycnal displacements associated with the mesoscale field. Shoaling density surfaces tended to introduce cold, nutrient-rich water into the euphotic zone, while deepening isopycnals displaced nutrient-depleted water downward. Chlorophyll concentration was generally enhanced in the former case and reduced in the latter. Eddy-induced upwelling at the base of the euphotic zone was affected by features of two different types captured in this survey-, (1) a typical mid-ocean cyclone in which doming of the main thermocline raised the near-surface stratification upward and (2) a mode water eddy composed of a thick lens of 18C water, which pushed up the seasonal thermocline and depressed the main thermocline. Model hindcasts using all available data provide a four-dimensional context in which to interpret temporal trends at the BATS site and two other locations during the 2 weeks subsequent to the survey. Observed changes in near-surface structure at the BATS site included shoaling isopycnals, increased nutrient availability at the base of the euphotic zone, and enhanced chlorophyll concentration within the cuphotic zone. These trends are explicable in terms of a newly formed cyclone that impinged upon the site during this time period. These observations reveal that eddy upwelling has a demonstrable impact on the way in which the nitrate-density relationship changes with depth from the aphotic zone into the euphotic zone. A similar transition is present in the BATS record, suggesting that eddy-driven upwelling events are present in the time series of upper ocean biogeochemical properties. The variability in main thermocline temperature and nitrate in this synoptic spatial survey spans the range observed in these quantities in the 10-year time series available at BATS to date (1988-1998).

McGillicuddy, D. J.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Mesoscale Variations of Biogeochemical Properties in the Sargasso Sea

A mesoscale resolution biogeochemical survey was carried out in the vicinity of the US Joint Global Ocean Flux Study Bermuda Atlantic Time-Series Study (BATS) site during the summer of 1996. Real-time nowcasting and forecasting of the flow field facilitated adaptive sampling of several eddy features in the area. Variations in upper ocean nutrient and pigment distributions were largely controlled by vertical isopycnal displacements associated with the mesoscale field. Shoaling density surfaces tended to introduce cold, nutrient-rich water into the euphotic zone, while deepening isopycnals displaced nutrient-depleted water downward. Chlorophyll concentration was generally enhanced in the former case and reduced in the latter. Eddy-induced upwelling at the base of the euphotic zone was affected by features of two different types captured in this survey: (1) a typical mid-ocean cyclone in which doming of the main thermocline raised the near-surface stratification upward; and (2) a mode water eddy composed of a thick lens of 18 C water, which pushed up the seasonal thermocline and depressed the main thermocline. Model hindcasts using all available data provide a four-dimensional context in which to interpret temporal trends at the BATS site and two other locations during the two weeks subsequent to the survey. Observed changes in near-surface structure at the BATS site included shoaling iscpycnals, increased nutrient availability at the base of the euphotic zone, and enhanced chlorophyll concentration within the euphotic zone. These trends are explicable in terms of a newly formed cyclone that impinged upon the site during this time period. These observations reveal that eddy upwelling has a demonstrable impact on the way in which the nitrate-density relationship changes with depth from the aphotic zone into the euphotic zone. A similar transition is present in the BATS record, suggesting that eddy-driven upwelling events are present in the time series of upper ocean biogeochemical properties. The variability in main thermocline temperature and nitrate in this synoptic spatial survey spans the range observed in these quantities in the 10-year time series available at BATS to date (1988-1998).

McGillicuddy Dennis J., Jr.↗

DOE OSTI2022

A framework to implement human reliability analysis during early design stages of advanced reactors

Nuclear power plants require human actions throughout their lifecycle from design, construction, operation, and decommissioning. However, for advanced reactors (e.g., Generation IV), the reliance on human intervention in safety-related actions is expected to be reduced or completely replaced by automated actions. The Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) Standard for Advanced Non-LWR Nuclear Power Plants requires that the impacts of all operator actions are captured and incorporated in the risk of the modeled plant. Moreover, the Modernization of Technical Requirements for Licensing Advanced Reactors requires human reliability analysis (HRA) to be included throughout all design and PRA development stages. However, due to the lack of details during the early design stages, HRA is often postponed until the design is mature enough. Conducting HRA in later design stages, though it may be adequate in capturing pre-, at-, and post-initiators comes short of informing the design itself in the iterative design lifecycle. Hence, this paper presents a framework to include HRA during the design's early stages, pre-conceptual or conceptual. The proposed framework provides a process for the removal of operator actions that do not contribute to the risk and the identification of all key operator actions that are critical to the safety of the design. The results of this framework are then used to inform the design of those safety-related operator actions to update the design further. Then, using information from the updated design, this framework can be reapplied to investigate the impact of the design update on human reliability. The PRA model of the X-energy's pre-conceptual Xe-100 high-temperature gas-cooled pebble-bed reactor (HTGR-PB) design is used to demonstrate the approach. In the pre-conceptual Xe-100 PRA model, also called Phase 0 PRA model, human actions were considered an integral part of analyzing the plant response to different initiating events. Hence, in this paper, all possible human actions in the Xe-100 PRA model are identified, analyzed, and removed to emulate a design relying only on the available automated control systems. The preliminary results of this assessment show how safe the Xe-100 design is even without crediting any human actions. The results also list necessary sequences in which operator actions are critical to the risk profile of the design.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

NASA NTRS1999

Climatic Variability of Precipitation from the Seasonal Cycle to ENSO Using GPCP's Merged Data Product and SSM/I-Based Microwave Estimates

Satellite estimates and gauge observations of precipitation are useful in understanding the water cycle, analyzing climatic variability, and validating climate models. The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) released a community merged precipitation data set for the period July 1987 through the present, and has recently extended that data set back to 1986. One objective of this study is to use GPCP estimates to describe and quantify the seasonal variation of precipitation, with emphasis on the Asian summer monsoon. Another focus is the 1997-98 El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and associated extreme precipitation events. The summer monsoon tends to be drier than normal in El Nino ears. This was not observed for 1997 or 1998, while for 1997 the NCEP model produced the largest summer rain rates over India in years. This inconsistency will be examined. The average annual global precipitation rate is 2.7 mm day as estimated by GPCP, which is similar to values computed from long-term climatologies. From 30 deg N to 30 deg S the average precipitation rate is 2.7 mm day over land with a maximum in the annual cycle occurring in February-March, when the Amazon basin receives abundant rainfall. The average precipitation rate is 3.1 mm day over the tropical oceans, with a peak earlier in the season (November-December), corresponding with the transition from a strong Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) from June to November to a strong South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) from December to March. The seasonal evolution of C, C, the Asian summer monsoon stands out with rains in excess of 15 mm day off the coast of Burma in June. The GPROF pentad data also captures the onset of the tropical Pacific rainfall patterns associated with the 1997-98 ENSO. From February to October 1997 at least four rain-producing systems traveled from West to East in the equatorial corridor. A rapid transition from El Nino to La Nina conditions occurred in May-June 1998. GPCP and GPROF were used to construct precipitation-based ENSO indices to monitor El Ninos (EL) and La Ninas and (LI).

Curtis, Scott↗