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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,315 records · Page 73
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2014

Scientific Discovery through Advanced Computing (SciDAC-3) Partnership Project Annual Report

The Applying Computationally Efficient Schemes for BioGeochemical Cycles ACES4BGC Project is advancing the predictive capabilities of Earth System Models (ESMs) by reducing two of the largest sources of uncertainty, aerosols and biospheric feedbacks, with a highly efficient computational approach. In particular, this project is implementing and optimizing new computationally efficient tracer advection algorithms for large numbers of tracer species; adding important biogeochemical interactions between the atmosphere, land, and ocean models; and applying uncertainty quanti cation (UQ) techniques to constrain process parameters and evaluate uncertainties in feedbacks between biogeochemical cycles and the climate system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Climate change will reduce North American inland wetland areas and disrupt their seasonal regimes

Abstract Climate change can alter wetland extent and function, but such impacts are perplexing. Here, changes in wetland characteristics over North America from 25° to 53° North are projected under two climate scenarios using a state-of-the-science Earth system model. At the continental scale, annual wetland area decreases by ~10% (6%-14%) under the high emission scenario, but spatiotemporal changes vary, reaching up to ±50%. As the dominant driver of these changes shifts from precipitation to temperature in the higher emission scenario, wetlands undergo substantial drying during summer season when biotic processes peak. The projected disruptions to wetland seasonality cycles imply further impacts on biodiversity in major wetland habitats of upper Mississippi, Southeast Canada, and the Everglades. Furthermore, wetlands are projected to significantly shrink in cold regions due to the increased infiltration as warmer temperature reduces soil ice. The large dependence of the projections on climate change scenarios underscores the importance of emission mitigation to sustaining wetland ecosystems in the future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2013

Towards a Fine-Resolution Global Coupled Climate System for Prediction on Decadal/Centennial Scales

The over-arching goal of this project was to contribute to the realization of a fully coupled fine resolution Earth System Model simulation in which a weather-scale atmosphere is coupled to an ocean in which mesoscale eddies are largely resolved. Both a prototype fine-resolution fully coupled ESM simulation and a first-ever multi-decadal forced fine-resolution global coupled ocean/ice simulation were configured, tested, run, and analyzed as part of this grant. Science questions focused on the gains from the use of high horizontal resolution, particularly in the ocean and sea-ice, with respect to climatically important processes. Both these fine resolution coupled ocean/sea ice and fully-coupled simulations and precedent stand-alone eddy-resolving ocean and eddy-permitting coupled ocean/ice simulations were used to explore the high resolution regime. Overall, these studies showed that the presence of mesoscale eddies significantly impacted mixing processes and the global meridional overturning circulation in the ocean simulations. Fourteen refereed publications and a Ph.D. dissertation resulted from this grant.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Increased drought and extreme events over continental United States under high emissions scenario

The frequency, severity, and extent of climate extremes in future will have an impact on human well-being, ecosystems, and the effectiveness of emissions mitigation and carbon sequestration strategies. The specific objectives of this study were to downscale climate data for US weather stations and analyze future trends in meteorological drought and temperature extremes over continental United States (CONUS). We used data from 4161 weather stations across the CONUS to downscale future precipitation projections from three Earth System Models (ESMs) participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase Six (CMIP6), specifically for the high emission scenario SSP5 8.5. Comparing historic observations with climate model projections revealed a significant bias in total annual precipitation days and total precipitation amounts. The average number of annual precipitation days across CONUS was projected to be 205 ± 26, 184 ± 33, and 181 ± 25 days in the BCC, CanESM, and UKESM models, respectively, compared to 91 ± 24 days in the observed data. Analyzing the duration of drought periods in different ecoregions of CONUS showed an increase in the number of drought months in the future (2023–2052) compared to the historical period (1989–2018). The analysis of precipitation and temperature changes in various ecoregions of CONUS revealed an increased frequency of droughts in the future, along with longer durations of warm spells. Eastern temperate forests and the Great Plains, which encompass the majority of CONUS agricultural lands, are projected to experience higher drought counts in the future. Drought projections show an increasing trend in future drought occurrences due to rising temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns. Our high-resolution climate projections can inform policy makers about the hotspots and their anticipated future trajectories.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2022

Assimilation of Remotely Sensed Leaf Area Index Enhances the Estimation of Anthropogenic Irrigation Water Use

Representation of irrigation in Earth System Models has advanced over the past decade, yet large uncertainties persist in the effective simulation of irrigation practices, particularly over locations where the on-ground practices and climate impacts are less reliably known. Here we investigate the utility of assimilating remotely sensed vegetation data for improving irrigation water use and associated fluxes within a land surface model. We show that assimilating optical sensor-based leaf area index estimates significantly improves the simulation of irrigation water use when compared to the USGS ground reports. For heavily irrigated areas, assimilation improves the evaporative fluxes and gross primary production (GPP) simulations, with the median correlation increasing by 0.1–1.1 and 0.3–0.6, respectively, as compared to the reference datasets. Further, bias improvements in the range of 14–35 mm mo^(−1) and 10–82 g m^(-2)mo^(−1) are obtained in evaporative fluxes and GPP as a result of incorporating vegetation constraints, respectively. These results demonstrate that the use of remotely sensed vegetation data is an effective, observation-informed, globally applicable approach for simulating irrigation and characterizing its impacts on water and carbon states.

Earth System Models↗
DOE OSTI2015

Strong dependence of CO 2 emissions from anthropogenic land cover change on initial land cover and soil carbon parametrization

The quantification of sources and sinks of carbon from land use and land cover changes (LULCC) is uncertain. We investigated how the parametrization of LULCC and of organic matter decomposition, as well as initial land cover, affects the historical and future carbon fluxes in an Earth System Model (ESM). Using the land component of the Max Planck Institute ESM, we found that the historical (1750–2010) LULCC flux varied up to 25% depending on the fraction of biomass which enters the atmosphere directly due to burning or is used in short-lived products. The uncertainty in the decadal LULCC fluxes of the recent past due to the parametrization of decomposition and direct emissions was 0.6 Pg C yr $-$1 , which is 3 times larger than the uncertainty previously attributed to model and method in general. Preindustrial natural land cover had a larger effect on decadal LULCC fluxes than the aforementioned parameter sensitivity (1.0 Pg C yr $-$1 ). Regional differences between reconstructed and dynamically computed land covers, in particular, at low latitudes, led to differences in historical LULCC emissions of 84–114 Pg C, globally. This effect is larger than the effects of forest regrowth, shifting cultivation, or climate feedbacks and comparable to the effect of differences among studies in the terminology of LULCC. Finally, in general, we find that the practice of calibrating the net land carbon balance to provide realistic boundary conditions for the climate component of an ESM hampers the applicability of the land component outside its primary field of application.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2018

Interpreting Precession-Driven δ O-18 Variability in the South Asian Monsoon Region

Speleothem records from the South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) region display variability in the ratio of O-18 and O-16 (δ O-18) in calcium carbonate at orbital frequencies. The dominant mode of variability in many of these records reflects cycles of precession. There are several potential explanations for why SASM speleothem records show a strong precession signal, including changes in temperature, precipitation, and circulation. Here we use an Earth system model with water isotope tracers and water-tagging capability to deconstruct the precession signal found in SASM speleothem records. Our results show that cycles of precession-eccentricity produce changes in SASM intensity that correlate with local temperature, precipitation, and δ O-18. However, neither the amount effect nor temperature differences are responsible for the majority of the SASM δ O-18 variability. Instead, changes in the relative moisture contributions from different source regions drive much of the SASM δ O-18 signal, with more nearby moisture sources during Northern Hemisphere summer at aphelion and more distant moisture sources during Northern Hemisphere summer at perihelion. Further, we find that evaporation amplifies the δ O-18 signal of soil water relative to that of precipitation, providing a better match with the SASM speleothem records. This work helps explain a significant portion of the long-term variability found in SASM speleothem records.

paleoclimate↗
NASA NTRS2020

Space-Based Observations for Understanding Changes in the Arctic-Boreal Zone

Observations taken over the last few decades indicate that dramatic changes are occurring in the ArcticBoreal Zone (ABZ), which are having significant impacts on ABZ inhabitants, infrastructure, flora and fauna, and economies. While suitable for detecting overall change, the current capability is inadequate for systematic monitoring and for improving processbased and largescale understanding of the integrated components of the ABZ, which includes the cryosphere, biosphere, hydrosphere, and atmosphere. Such knowledge will lead to improvements in Earth system models, enabling more accurate prediction of future changes and development of informed adaptation and mitigation strategies. In Duncan et al. (2020), we review the strengths and limitations of current spacebased observational capabilities for several important ABZ components and make recommendations for improving upon these current capabilities. We recommend an interdisciplinary and stepwise approach to develop a comprehensive ABZ Observing Network (ABZON), beginning with an initial focus on observing networks designed to gain processbased understanding for individual ABZ components and systems that can then serve as the building blocks for a comprehensive ABZON.

Artic-Boreal↗
DOE OSTI2023

Climate responses in China to domestic and foreign aerosol changes due to clean air actions during 2013–2019

In recent years, to improve air quality, significant efforts have been made to reduce regional aerosols including China, Europe and North America, which have potential impacts on climate. In this study, fast and slow climate responses in China to changes in domestic and foreign anthropogenic emissions of aerosols and precursors from 2013 to 2019 are investigated using the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1). Aerosol emissions changes, especially reductions in China, North America and Europe, during 2013–2019 resulted in surface air temperature increases across the Northern Hemisphere. Global aerosol changes induce a regional warming of 0.2 °C in China, equally contributed by domestic and foreign emissions changes. China’s domestic emission reductions lead to a regional average temperature rise of 0.1°C, primarily driven by rapid atmospheric adjustments over eastern China. Foreign aerosol changes, particularly reductions in North America and Europe, also contributed to a 0.1°C warming in China through slow oceanic processes. This warming in China induced by foreign aerosol changes is due to a teleconnection between the aerosol-induced anomalous regional warming in Eastern U.S.-North Atlantic Ocean-Europe and the downstream East Asian climate through anomalous wave trains propagation. The comparable influence of domestic and foreign aerosol changes on climate in China underscores the importance of international collaboration in climate mitigation endeavors.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluating the economic impact of water scarcity in a changing world

Abstract Water scarcity is dynamic and complex, emerging from the combined influences of climate change, basin-level water resources, and managed systems’ adaptive capacities. Beyond geophysical stressors and responses, it is critical to also consider how multi-sector, multi-scale economic teleconnections mitigate or exacerbate water shortages. Here, we contribute a global-to-basin-scale exploratory analysis of potential water scarcity impacts by linking a global human-Earth system model, a global hydrologic model, and a metric for the loss of economic surplus due to resource shortages. We find that, dependent on scenario assumptions, major hydrologic basins can experience strongly positive or strongly negative economic impacts due to global trade dynamics and market adaptations to regional scarcity. In many cases, market adaptation profoundly magnifies economic uncertainty relative to hydrologic uncertainty. Our analysis finds that impactful scenarios are often combinations of standard scenarios, showcasing that planners cannot presume drivers of uncertainty in complex adaptive systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Sensitivity of Simulated Polar Climate to Improved Partitioning of Spectral Solar Irradiance Between Visible and Near‐Infrared Bands

The solar radiative processes that contribute to Earth's surface and atmospheric energy budgets are strongly dependent on wavelength. For example, snow and water vapor become more absorptive as incident radiation shifts from visible (VIS) to near-infrared (NIR) wavelengths. Some earth system models (ESMs) aggregate solar radiation into just two bands (VIS and NIR) partitioned at 0.7 μm for transmission between the atmospheric and surface components. In the widely used radiative transfer model RRTMG_SW this partition is near the center of the overlap spectral band spanning 0.625–0.778 μm, whose flux is often approximated as being evenly divided between the VIS and NIR surface bands. Using a hyperspectral radiative transfer model, we show that the fractional downwelling surface flux within the overlap band is usually distributed about 55.5%:44.5% VIS:NIR. This improved approximation shifts as much as 4.27 W m −2 from the NIR to the VIS band, leading to an instantaneous decrease in surface absorption of up to 0.91 W m −2 over snow-covered surfaces. Century-long fully coupled ESM simulations show surface absorption over snow decreases by over 1.6 W m −2 . The coupled response in sea ice regions amplifies the initial forcing ten-fold, and increases seasonal sea ice area by up to 4.9%. These results highlight the importance of accurately representing the spectral distribution of solar radiation in the cryosphere.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Vegetation type is an important predictor of the arctic summer land surface energy budget

Despite the importance of high-latitude surface energy budgets (SEBs) for land-climate interactions in the rapidly changing Arctic, uncertainties in their prediction persist. Here, we harmonize SEB observations across a network of vegetated and glaciated sites at circumpolar scale (1994–2021). Our variance-partitioning analysis identifies vegetation type as an important predictor for SEB-components during Arctic summer (June-August), compared to other SEB-drivers including climate, latitude and permafrost characteristics. Differences among vegetation types can be of similar magnitude as between vegetation and glacier surfaces and are especially high for summer sensible and latent heat fluxes. The timing of SEB-flux summer-regimes (when daily mean values exceed 0 Wm –2 ) relative to snow-free and -onset dates varies substantially depending on vegetation type, implying vegetation controls on snow-cover and SEB-flux seasonality. Our results indicate complex shifts in surface energy fluxes with land-cover transitions and a lengthening summer season, and highlight the potential for improving future Earth system models via a refined representation of Arctic vegetation types.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Aerosol Observing Systems (AOS) for Surface-Based In Situ Atmospheric Aerosol and Trace Gas Measurements

Aerosols alter Earth’s radiative budget both directly and indirectly through interaction with clouds. Continuous observations are required to reduce the uncertainties in climate models associated with atmospheric processing and the interactions between aerosols and clouds. Field observations of aerosols are a central component of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Facility’s global measurements. The ARM mission goal is to “provide the climate research community with strategically located in situ and remote sensing observatories designed to improve the understanding and representation, in climate and earth system models, of clouds and aerosols as well as their interactions and coupling with the Earth’s surface.” Since 1996, ARM has met this goal by operating Aerosol Observing Systems (AOS) for in situ measurement of aerosols. Currently the five ARM AOSs are the most comprehensive field deployable aerosol systems in the United States. The AOS suite includes seven measurement classes: number concentration, size distribution, chemical composition, radiative and optical properties, hygroscopicity, trace gases, and supporting meteorological conditions. AOSs are designed as standardized measurement platforms to enable intercomparison across the ARM Facility for regional process studies within a global context. The instrumentation and measurement capabilities of the ARM AOSs, along with a history of their design and field deployments are presented here.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Anticipating how rain-on-snow events will change through the 21st century: lessons from the 1997 new year’s flood event

The California-Nevada 1997 New Year’s flood was an atmospheric river (AR)-driven rain-on-snow (RoS) event and remains the costliest in their history. The joint occurrence of saturated soils, rainfall, and snowmelt generated inundation throughout northern California-Nevada. Although AR RoS events are projected to occur more frequently with climate change, the warming sensitivity of their flood drivers across scales remains understudied. We leverage the regionally refined mesh capabilities of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (RRM-E3SM) to recreate the 1997 New Year’s flood with horizontal grid spacings of 3.5 km across California, with forecast lead times of up to 4 days, and across six warming levels ranging from pre-industrial conditions to +3.5° C. We describe the sensitivity of the flood drivers to warming including AR duration and intensity, precipitation phase, intensity and efficiency, snowpack mass and energy changes, and runoff efficiency. Our findings indicate current levels of climate change negligibly influence the flood drivers. At warming levels ≥ 1.7° C, AR hazard potential increases, snowpack nonlinearly decreases, antecedent soil moisture decreases (except where the snowline retreats), and runoff decreases (except in the southern Sierra Nevada where antecedent snowpack persists). Storm total precipitation increases, but at rates below warming-induced increases in saturation-specific humidity. Warming intensifies short-duration, high-intensity rainfall, particularly where snowfall-to-rainfall transitions occur. This study highlights the nonlinear tradeoffs in 21st-century RoS flood hazards with warming and provides water management and infrastructure investment adaptation considerations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2022

LGM Paleoclimate Constraints Inform Cloud Parameterizations and Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity in CESM2

The Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) simulates a high equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS > 5°C) and a Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) that is substantially colder than proxy temperatures. In this study, we examine the role of cloud parameterizations in simulating the LGM cooling in CESM2. Through substituting different versions of cloud schemes in the atmosphere model, we attribute the excessive LGM cooling to the new CESM2 schemes of cloud microphysics and ice nucleation. Further exploration suggests that removing an inappropriate limiter on cloud ice number (NoNimax) and decreasing the time-step size (substepping) in cloud microphysics largely eliminate the excessive LGM cooling. NoNimax produces a more physically consistent treatment of mixed-phase clouds, which leads to an increase in cloud ice content and a weaker shortwave cloud feedback over mid-to-high latitudes and the Southern Hemisphere subtropics. Microphysical substepping further weakens the shortwave cloud feedback. Based on NoNimax and microphysical substepping, we have developed a paleoclimate-calibrated CESM2 (PaleoCalibr), which simulates well the observed twentieth century warming and spatial characteristics of key cloud and climate variables. PaleoCalibr has a lower ECS (∼4°C) and a 20% weaker aerosol-cloud interaction than CESM2. PaleoCalibr represents a physically more consistent treatment of cloud microphysics than CESM2 and is a valuable tool in climate change studies, especially when a large climate forcing is involved. Our study highlights the unique value of paleoclimate constraints in informing the cloud parameterizations and ultimately the future climate projection.

equilibrium climate sensitivity↗
DOE OSTI2019

Evolution of Ocean Heat Content Related to ENSO

As the strongest interannual perturbation to the climate system, El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) dominates the year-to-year variability of the ocean energy budget. Here we combine ocean observations, reanalyses, and surface flux data with Earth system model simulations to obtain estimates of the different terms affecting the redistribution of energy in the Earth system during ENSO events, including exchanges between ocean and atmosphere and among different ocean basins, and lateral and vertical rearrangements. This comprehensive inventory allows better understanding of the regional and global evolution of ocean heat related to ENSO and provides observational metrics to benchmark performance of climate models. Results confirm that there is a strong negative ocean heat content tendency (OHCT) in the tropical Pacific Ocean during El Niño, mainly through enhanced air–sea heat fluxes Q into the atmosphere driven by high sea surface temperatures. In addition to this diabatic component, there is an adiabatic redistribution of heat both laterally and vertically (0–100 and 100–300 m) in the tropical Pacific and Indian oceans that dominates the local OHCT. Heat is also transported and discharged from 20°S–5°N into off-equatorial regions within 5°–20°N during and after El Niño. OHCT and Q changes outside the tropical Pacific Ocean indicate the ENSO-driven atmospheric teleconnections and changes of ocean heat transport (i.e., Indonesian Throughflow). The tropical Atlantic and Indian Oceans warm during El Niño, partly offsetting the tropical Pacific cooling for the tropical oceans as a whole. While there are distinct regional OHCT changes, many compensate each other, resulting in a weak but robust net global ocean cooling during and after El Niño.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2021

Less Atmospheric Radiative Heating By Dust Due to the Synergy of Coarser Size and Aspherical Shape

Mineral dust aerosols cool and warm the atmosphere by scattering and absorbing solar (shortwave: SW) and thermal (longwave: LW) radiation. However, significant uncertainties remain in dust radiative effects, largely due to differences in the dust size distribution and spectral optical properties simulated in Earth system models. Dust models typically underestimate the coarse dust load (more than 2.5 µm in diameter) and assume a spherical shape, which leads to an overestimate of the fine dust load (less than 2.5 µm) after the dust emissions in the models are scaled to match observed dust aerosol optical depth at 550 nm (DAOD550). Here, we improve the simulated dust properties with data sets that leverage measurements of size-resolved dust concentration, asphericity factor, and refractive index in a coupled global chemical transport model with a radiative transfer module. After the adjustment of size-resolved dust concentration and spectral optical properties, the global and annual average of DAOD550 from the simulation increases from 0.023 to 0.029 and falls within the range of a semi-observationally based estimate (0.030 ± 0.005). The reduction of fine dust load after the adjustment leads to a reduction of the SW cooling at the top of the atmosphere (TOA). To improve agreement against a semi-observationally based estimate of the radiative effect efficiency at TOA, we find that a less absorptive SW dust refractive index is required for coarser aspherical dust. Thus, only a minor difference is estimated for the net global dust radiative effect at TOA (−0.08 vs. −0.00 W m−2 on a global scale). Conversely, our sensitivity simulations reveal that the surface warming is substantially enhanced near the strong dust source regions (less cooling to −0.23 from −0.60 W m−2 on a global scale). Thus, less atmospheric radiative heating is estimated near the major source regions (less heating to 0.15 from 0.59 W m−2 on a global scale), because of enhanced LW warming at the surface by the synergy of coarser size and aspherical shape.

simulated dust properties↗
DOE OSTI2016

Changes in Sea Salt Emissions Enhance ENSO Variability

Two 150-year pre-industrial simulations with and without interactive sea salt emissions from the Community Earth System Model (CESM) are performed to quantify the interactions between sea salt emissions and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Variations in sea salt emissions over the tropical Pacific Ocean are affected by changing wind speed associated with ENSO variability. ENSO-induced interannual variations in sea salt emissions result in decreasing (increasing) aerosol optical depth (AOD) by 0.03 over the equatorial central-eastern (western) Pacific Ocean during El Niño events compared to those during La Niña events. These changes in AOD further increase (decrease) radiative fluxes into the atmosphere by +0.2 W m -2 (-0.4 W m -2 ) over the tropical eastern (western) Pacific. Thereby, sea surface temperature increases (decreases) by 0.2–0.4 K over the tropical eastern (western) Pacific Ocean during El Niño compared to La Niña events and enhances ENSO variability by 10%. The increase in ENSO amplitude is a result of systematic heating (cooling) during the warm (cold) phase, of ENSO in the eastern Pacific. Interannual variations in sea salt emissions then produce the anomalous ascent (subsidence) over the equatorial eastern (western) Pacific between El Niño and La Niña events, which is a result of heating anomalies. Due to variations in sea salt emissions, the convective precipitation is enhanced by 0.6–1.2 mm day -1 over the tropical central-eastern Pacific Ocean and weakened by 0.9–1.5 mm day -1 over the Maritime Continent during El Niño compared to La Niña events, enhancing the precipitation variability over the tropical Pacific.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗