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At least 1,315 records · Page 73

Projected Changes in the Asian‐Australian Monsoon Region in 1.5°C and 2.0°C Global‐Warming Scenarios

Abstract In light of the Paris Agreement, it is essential to identify regional impacts of half a degree additional global warming to inform climate adaptation and mitigation strategies. We investigate the effects of 1.5°C and 2.0°C global warming above preindustrial conditions, relative to present day (2006–2015), over the Asian‐Australian monsoon region (AAMR) using five models from the Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) project. There is considerable intermodel variability in projected changes to mean climate and extreme events in 2.0°C and 1.5°C scenarios. There is high confidence in projected increases to mean and extreme surface temperatures over AAMR, as well as more‐frequent persistent daily temperature extremes over East Asia, Australia, and northern India with an additional 0.5°C warming, which are likely to occur. Mean and extreme monsoon precipitation amplify over AAMR, except over Australia at 1.5°C where there is uncertainty in the sign of the change. Persistent daily extreme precipitation events are likely to become more frequent over parts of East Asia and India with an additional 0.5°C warming. There is lower confidence in projections of precipitation change than in projections of surface temperature change. These results highlight the benefits of limiting the global‐mean temperature change to 1.5°C above preindustrial, as the severity of the above effects increases with an extra 0.5°C warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The role of the Southern Hemisphere semiannual oscillation in the development of a precursor to central and eastern Pacific Southern Oscillation warm events

The semiannual oscillation (SAO) is a twice-yearly northward movement (in May-June-July (MJJ) and November-December-January (NDJ)) of the circumpolar trough of sea level pressure (SLP) in the Southern Hemisphere with effects throughout the troposphere. During MJJ the second harmonic of SLP, describing the SAO, has low values of SLP north of 50°S in the subtropical South Pacific, while the first harmonic, which is dominant over the Australian sector, increases to its peak. This once-a-year peak in negative SLP gradients (decreasing to the east) between Australia and the ocean to its east extends to the equatorial Pacific. Southern Oscillation warm events since 1950, with an intensification of this seasonal cycle, have had larger-amplitude SST anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific in MJJ and during the following mature phase in NDJ. Weak amplification of the seasonal cycle in MJJ tends to be followed by larger-amplitude SST anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific during NDJ.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Sulfate Aerosol in the Arctic: Source Attribution and Radiative Forcing

Source attribution of Arctic sulfate and its radiative forcing due to aerosol-radiation interactions (RFari) for 2010–2014 are quantified in this study using the Community Earth System Model equipped with an explicit sulfur source-tagging technique. The model roughly reproduces the seasonal pattern of sulfate but has biases in simulating the magnitude of near-surface concentrations and vertical distribution. Regions that have high emissions and/or are near/within the Arctic present relatively large contributions to Arctic sulfate burden, with the largest contribution from sources in East Asia (27%). Seasonal variations of the contribution to Arctic sulfate burden from remote sources are strongly influenced by meteorology. The mean RFari of anthropogenic sulfate offsets one third of the positive top of the atmosphere (TOA) RFari from black carbon. A 20% global reduction in anthropogenic SO 2 emissions leads to a net Arctic TOA forcing increase of +0.019W m –2 . These results indicate that a joint reduction in BC and SO 2 emissions could prevent at least some of the Arctic warming from any future SO 2 emission reductions. Furthermore, sulfate RFari efficiency calculations suggest that source regions with short transport pathways and meteorology favoring longer lifetimes are more efficient in influencing the Arctic sulfate RFari. Based on Arctic climate sensitivity factors, about 0.19 K of the Arctic surface temperature cooling is attributed to anthropogenic sulfate, with –0.05 K of that from sources in East Asia, relative to preindustrial conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Microbial communities across a hillslope‐riparian transect shaped by proximity to the stream, groundwater table, and weathered bedrock

Abstract Watersheds are important suppliers of freshwater for human societies. Within mountainous watersheds, microbial communities impact water chemistry and element fluxes as water from precipitation events discharge through soils and underlying weathered rock, yet there is limited information regarding the structure and function of these communities. Within the East River, CO watershed, we conducted a depth‐resolved, hillslope to riparian zone transect study to identify factors that control how microorganisms are distributed and their functions. Metagenomic and geochemical analyses indicate that distance from the East River and proximity to groundwater and underlying weathered shale strongly impact microbial community structure and metabolic potential. Riparian zone microbial communities are compositionally distinct, from the phylum down to the species level, from all hillslope communities. Bacteria from phyla lacking isolated representatives consistently increase in abundance with increasing depth, but only in the riparian zone saturated sediments we found Candidate Phyla Radiation bacteria. Riparian zone microbial communities are functionally differentiated from hillslope communities based on their capacities for carbon and nitrogen fixation and sulfate reduction. Selenium reduction is prominent at depth in weathered shale and saturated riparian zone sediments and could impact water quality. We anticipate that the drivers of community composition and metabolic potential identified throughout the studied transect will predict patterns across the larger watershed hillslope system.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Spatiotemporal modeling of ecological and sociological predictors of West Nile virus in Suffolk County, NY, mosquitoes

Abstract Suffolk County, New York, is a locus for West Nile virus ( WNV ) infection in the American northeast that includes the majority of Long Island to the east of New York City. The county has a system of light and gravid traps used for mosquito collection and disease monitoring. In order to identify predictors of WNV incidence in mosquitoes and predict future occurrence of WNV , we have developed a spatiotemporal Bayesian model, beginning with over 40 ecological, meteorological, and built‐environment covariates. A mixed‐effects model including spatially and temporally correlated errors was fit to WNV surveillance data from 2008 to 2014 using the R package “R‐INLA,” which allows for Bayesian modeling using the stochastic partial differential equation ( SPDE ) approach. The integrated nested Laplace approximation ( INLA ) SPDE allows for simultaneous fitting of a temporal parameter and a spatial covariance, while incorporating a variety of likelihood functions and running in R statistical software on a home computer. We found that land cover classified as open water and woody wetlands had a negative association with WNV incidence in mosquitoes, and the count of septic systems was associated with an increase in WNV . Mean temperature at two‐week lag was associated with a strong positive impact, while mean precipitation at no lag and one‐week lag was associated with positive and negative impacts on WNV , respectively. Incorporation of spatiotemporal factors resulted in a marked increase in model goodness‐of‐fit. The predictive power of the model was evaluated on 2015 surveillance results, where the best model achieved a sensitivity of 80.9% and a specificity of 77.0%. The spatial covariate was mapped across the county, identifying a gradient of WNV prevalence increasing from east to west. The Bayesian spatiotemporal model improves upon previous approaches, and we recommend the INLA SPDE methodology as an efficient way to develop robust models from surveillance data to develop and enhance monitoring and control programs. Our study confirms previously found associations between weather conditions and WNV and suggests that wetland cover has a mitigating effect on WNV infection in mosquitoes, while high septic system density is associated with an increase in WNV infection.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

From Grain to Floodplain: Evaluating heterogeneity of floodplain hydrostatigraphy using sedimentology, geophysics, and remote sensing

Stratigraphy is a fundamental component of floodplain heterogeneity and hydraulic conductivity and connectivity of alluvial aquifers, which affect hydrologic processes such as groundwater flow and hyporheic exchange. Watershed–scale hydrological models commonly simplify the sedimentology and stratigraphy of floodplains, neglecting natural floodplain heterogeneity and anisotropy. This study, conducted in the upper reach of the East River in the East River Basin, Colorado, USA, combines point–, meander–, and floodplain–scale data to determine key features of alluvial aquifers important for estimating hydrologic processes. We compare stratigraphy of two meanders with disparate geometries to explore floodplain heterogeneity and connectivity controls on flow and transport. Meander shape, orientation, and internal stratigraphy affected residence time estimates of laterally exchanged hyporheic water. Although the two meanders share a sediment source, vegetation, and climate, their divergent river migration histories resulted in contrasting meander hydrofacies. In turn, the extent and orientation of these elements controlled the effective hydraulic conductivity and, ultimately, estimates of groundwater transport and hyporheic residence times. Additionally, the meanders’ orientation relative to the valley gradient impacted the hydraulic gradient across the meanders—a key control of groundwater velocity. In conclusion, we combine our field data with remotely sensed data and introduce a potential approach to estimate key hydrostratigraphic packages across floodplains. Prospective applications include contaminant transport studies, hyporheic models, and watershed models.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Ecosystem Controls on Methylmercury Production by Periphyton Biofilms in a Contaminated Stream: Implications for Predictive Modeling

Periphyton biofilms produce a substantial fraction of the overall monomethylmercury (MMHg) flux in East Fork Poplar Creek, an industrially contaminated, freshwater creek in Oak Ridge, Tennessee. We examined periphyton MMHg production across seasons, locations, and light conditions using mercury stable isotopes. Methylation and demethylation rate potentials (km, trans av and kd, trans av, respectively) were calculated using a transient availability kinetic model. Light exposure and season were significant predictors of km, trans av, with greater values in full light exposure and in the summer. Season, light exposure, and location were significant predictors of kd, trans av, which was highest in dark conditions, in the spring, and at the upstream location. Light exposure was the controlling factor for net MMHg production, with positive production for periphyton grown under full light exposure and net demethylation for periphyton grown in the dark. Ambient MMHg and km, trans av were significantly correlated. Transient availability rate potentials were 15 times higher for km and 9 times higher for kd compared to full availability rate potentials (km, full av and kd, full av) calculated at 1 d. No significant model for the prediction of km, full av or kd, full av could be constructed using light, season, and location. In addition, there were no significant differences among treatments for the full availability km, full av, kd, full av, or net MMHg calculated using the full availability rate potentials. km, full av was not correlated with ambient MMHg concentrations. The present results underscore the importance of applying transient availability kinetics to MMHg production data when estimating MMHg production potential and flux.

Schwartz, Grace E.↗

High‐frequency daily temperature variability in China and its relationship to large‐scale circulation

ABSTRACT Two measures of intra‐seasonal variability, indicated respectively by standard deviations ( SD ) and day‐to‐day ( DTD ) fluctuations denoted by absolute differences between adjacent 2‐day periods, as well as their relationships with large‐scale circulation patterns were investigated in China during 1962–2008 on the basis of homogenized daily temperature records from 549 local stations and reanalysis data. Our results show that both the SD and DTD of daily minimum temperatures ( T min ) in summer as well as the minimum and maximum temperatures in winter have been decreasing, while the daily maximum temperature ( T max ) variability in summer is fluctuating more, especially over southern China. In summer, an attribution analysis indicates that the intensity of the Western Pacific Subtropical High ( WPSH ) and high‐level East Asian Subtropical Jet stream ( EASJ ) are positively correlated with both SD and DTD , but the correlation coefficients are generally greater with the SD than with the DTD of the daily maximum temperature, T max . In contrast, the location of the EASJ shows the opposite correlation pattern, with intensity regarding the correlation with both SD and DTD . In winter, the Arctic Oscillation ( AO ) is negatively correlated with both the SD and DTD of the daily minimum temperature, but its intra‐seasonal variability exhibits good agreement with the SD of the T min . The Siberian High acts differently with respect to the SD and DTD of the T min , demonstrating a regionally consistent positive correlation with the SD . Overall, the large‐scale circulation can well explain the intra‐seasonal SD, but DTD fluctuations may be more local and impacted by local conditions, such as changes in the temperature itself, the land surface, and so on.

Wu, Fu‐Ting↗

Observational study of the South American low-level jet during the SALLJEX

The South American Low-Level Jet (SALLJ) east of the Andes is a narrow maximum northerly wind present just above the boundary layer. It is an important component of the tropical-extratropical exchange of heat and moisture in South America and favors deep moist convection in Southeastern South America (SESA). In the present study, the SALLJ characteristics during the 2002-2003 summer season are investigated using upper-air measurements collected during the SALLJ Experiment (SALLJEX). At most stations, the highest wind speed was observed below 3000 m between 06 and 12 UTC, mainly in association with a maximization of the northerly component of the wind while the zonal component reached its minimum. Here, an increase in the maximum wind speed from 10°S to Santa Cruz de la Sierra’s latitude and from there a weakening southward was found throughout the SALLJEX network. Additionally, SALLJEX observations allowed to locate SALLJ core purely from observations in a region just east of the Andes in agreement with previous studies. A new localized kinematic classification was developed and applied in this study to analyze the relationship between the SALLJ intensity and the thermodynamic properties of the lower layers of the atmosphere. Weak, moderate, and strong SALLJ categories were defined with a local threshold of the northerly wind speed maximum at each station. The strongest SALLJs were frequently observed at nighttime, while weaker SALLJs were likely to occur at any time of the day. A stabilization of the nocturnal boundary layer was observed between weak and moderate cases whereas a destabilization between moderate and strong cases were found near the time of the wind speed maximum (06 UTC) at Santiago del Estero and Resistencia stations. A deepening of the convective boundary layer and an increase of its mean temperature between weak and strong category during the previous afternoon to nocturnal SALLJs, reveal a possible contribution to the mechanisms that generate the maximum wind speed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

E-36: The First Proto-Megascience Experiment at NAL

E-36, an experiment on small-angle proton-proton scattering, began testing equipment at the National Accelerator Laboratory (NAL) using a newly achieved 100 GeV proton beam on February 12, 1972, marking the beginning of NAL’s experimental program. This experiment, which drew collaborators from NAL, the Joint Institute for Nuclear Research (Dubna, USSR), the University of Rochester (Rochester, New York), and Rockefeller University (New York, New York) was significant not only as a milestone in Fermilab’s history but also as a model of cooperation between the East and West at a time when Cold War tensions still ran high. An examination of the origin, operation, and resolution of E-36 and the chain of experiments it spawned reveals the complex interplay of science and politics that drove these experiments as well as seeds of the megascience paradigm that has come to dominate high energy physics research since the 1970s.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Evaluation of multi-decadal UCLA-CFSv2 simulation and impact of interactive atmospheric-ocean feedback on global and regional variability

This paper evaluates multi-decadal simulations of the UCLA version of Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2), in which the default Noah land surface model has been replaced with the Simplified Simple Biosphere Model version-2 (SSiB2). To examine the influence of the atmosphere-ocean (AO) interaction on the variability, two different simulations were conducted: one with interactive ocean component, and the other constrained by the prescribed sea surface temperature. We evaluate the mean seasonal climatology of precipitation and temperature, along with the model’s ability to reproduce atmospheric variability at different scales over the globe, including extratropical modes of atmospheric variability, and long-term trends of global and hemispheric temperature and regional precipitation. Here, we particularly selected two monsoon regions, East Asia and West Africa, where the simulation of multi-decadal variations which has heretofore been a challenging task, to examine decadal variation of monsoon precipitation. In general, temperature anomaly trends were better captured than those of precipitation in both simulations. Results suggest that the AO interaction, represented as latent heat flux, contributes to improve reproducibility of global-wide climatology, extratropical modes of atmospheric variability, and variability in the multi-decadal climate simulation, as well as for inter decadal variability of the East Asian summer monsoon.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Projected future daily characteristics of African precipitation based on global (CMIP5, CMIP6) and regional (CORDEX, CORDEX-CORE) climate models

In this work, we provide an assessment of future daily characteristics of African precipitation by explicitly comparing the results of large ensembles of global (CMIP5, CMIP6) and regional (CORDEX, CORE) climate models, specifically highlighting the similarities and inconsistencies between them. Results for seasonal mean precipitation are not always consistent amongst ensembles: in particular, global models tend to project a wetter future compared to regional models, especially over the Eastern Sahel, Central and East Africa. However, results for other precipitation characteristics are more consistent. In general, all ensembles project an increase in maximum precipitation intensity during the wet season over all regions and emission scenarios (except the West Sahel for CORE) and a decrease in precipitation frequency (under the Representative Concentration Pathways RCP8.5) especially over the West Sahel, the Atlas region, southern central Africa, East Africa and southern Africa. Depending on the season, the length of dry spells is projected to increase consistently by all ensembles and for most (if not all) models over southern Africa, the Ethiopian highlands and the Atlas region. Discrepancies exist between global and regional models on the projected change in precipitation characteristics over specific regions and seasons. For instance, over the Eastern Sahel in July–August most global models show an increase in precipitation frequency but regional models project a robust decrease. Global and regional models also project an opposite sign in the change of the length of dry spells. CORE results show a marked drying over the regions affected by the West Africa monsoon throughout the year, accompanied by a decrease in mean precipitation intensity between May and July that is not present in the other ensembles. This enhanced drying may be related to specific physical mechanisms that are better resolved by the higher resolution models and highlights the importance of a process-based evaluation of the mechanisms controlling precipitation over the region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Cultural Shifts in High Energy Physics Collaboration from the Cold War to the Present: A Historical and Philosophical Perspective

Here, this article employs empirical history and the philosophy of science to study cultural convergences and divergences in international collaborations in high energy physics. We examine two cases: (1) E-36, an experiment on small angle proton-proton scattering conducted during the Cold War at the National Accelerator Laboratory (NAL) in the USA by Soviet and US scientists and (2) an ongoing collaborative experiment, NICA, at the Joint Institute for Nuclear Research (JINR, Dubna), which is a project devoted to heavy-ion physics. The JINR, particularly its Laboratory of High Energy Physics (formerly the “Laboratory of High Energies”) is the main mediating actor between these two cases (i.e., E-36 and NICA), as the majority of Soviet participants in E-36 were representatives of the Institute. Using empirical data collected through archival searches, field observations conducted at JINR in 2018–2019, and in-depth interviews, we tell a story of cultural differences in high energy physics by applying the concepts of ‘trading zones’ (P. Galison) and the translation of interests in actor-networks (B. Latour, M. Callon and others). We analyze three types of cultural diversity (specialization, nationality, and generational) in light of the implications of temporal context and the dichotomy between East and West, showing the roles cultural diversity plays in scientific collaboration (which is an integral part of as well as obstacle to scientific research that can nevertheless provide learning opportunities). Our study aims to demonstrate how disunity and diversity may function in scientific research and how high energy physics collaborations can remain productive despite sometimes deep divergences, including those between East and West.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

High-Resolution Simulation of Snowfall over the Korean Eastern Coastal Region Using WRF Model: Sensitivity to Domain Nesting-Down Strategy

The eastern coastal area of the Korean Peninsula, Yeongdong region, often experiences severe snowfall during the winter season. We studied here the development mechanism of a snowfall case occurred in February 2014 using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model at the convection-permitting resolution of 1 km. The model reasonably captured the observed snowfall, and three factors were discovered as important contributors to this snowfall case: a temperature contrast between land and ocean, a high-pressure system over the northeastern part of the Korean Peninsula, and the mountainous terrain. Cold and dry air blown from the high-pressure system gains heat and moisture when it passes over the East Sea enhancing the low-level instability. When the air mass reaches the coastline, updraft is generated by the density difference with the continental atmosphere and by the mountain slope. Further sensitivity experiments were conducted by adjusting strategies of nesting down (offline and online). Sensitivity experiments consist of three offline nesting experiments with different boundary condition update frequencies in 6, 3 and 1 h and one online nesting experiment that updates the boundary condition every integration time step. The major snowfall along the mountain range located in the middle of domain does not change significantly regardless of the nesting frequency. The offline nesting causes unphysical discontinuities of precipitation along the north and east sides of lateral boundary where wind blows in, which are caused by the absence of condensed hydrometeor variables in the lateral boundary condition. The domain nesting strategy tested in this study has dramatically impacted on the upper troposphere structure in the model: artificial fluctuations at the upper troposphere in the offline nesting simulations were significantly alleviated in the online nesting simulation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Simulation of shading and algal growth in experimental raceways

Many algae research groups use elevated experimental raceways to characterize algal biomass productivity. Side walls and a relatively large paddlewheel shade the culture and lower productivity, particularly in winter and with low culture depth. This paper presents a methodology to calculate shading for a given raceway shape: (1) develop a mesh of the inner surface geometry of the raceway; (2) offset the mesh horizontally in the x and y directions on the water surface as a function of wall height, solar zenith angle, and solar azimuth angle; (3) calculate the shaded area for each projected mesh with the shoelace algorithm; (4) use regression to develop a response surface for shaded area as a function of horizontal x and y offset. For each time step, the shaded area is calculated with the regression equation based on the x and y offset at that time step. The shading model was added to the Huesemann Algae Biomass Growth (HABG) model, which predicts algae growth rate as a function of water temperature and light intensity in algae culture layers. The shading model was evaluated with biomass concentrations from three Regional Algal Feedstock Testbed (RAFT) experiments with three different species of algae. The shading algorithm reduced the HABG estimate of productivity and improved the agreement with observed productivities. In the model, productivity was sensitive to the assumed light distribution below the water surface. Averaging light in each layer resulted in higher calculated growth rate than calculating growth separately in shaded and unshaded areas. Shaded area was sensitive to raceway orientation, water depth, and time of year. A north-south raceway orientation had less average shading in winter but more average shading in summer than an east-west orientation.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Rare earth minerals in a "no tonstein" section of the Dean (Fire Clay) coal, Knox County, Kentucky

The Dean (Fire Clay) coal in Knox County, Kentucky, does not contain the megascopically-visible ash-fall tonstein present in most other sections of the coal bed. Like the Fire Clay tonstein, a low-ash portion of the coal is enriched in rare earth elements (>2400ppm, on ash basis). In addition to kaolinite produced in the diagenesis of volcanic glass, transmission electron microscopy studies indicate the coal contains primary kaolinite, La Ce Nd Th monazite, barium niobate, native gold, and Fe Ni Cr spinels. The mineral assemblages, particularly the kaolinite-monazite association and its similarity to the tonsteins in coal to the east, demonstrate the coal was subject to the REE-enriched volcanic ash fall, apparently just at a more dilute level than at locations where the tonstein is present.

coal, rare earth, tonstein↗

Integrated supermarket refrigeration for very high ambient temperature

This paper analytically investigates and compares the performance of a proposed ‘all-natural’ NH 3 /CO 2 cascaded booster system to a conventional R404A direct expansion system as well as to an ‘all-CO 2 ’ system with multi-ejector unit and flooded evaporator. Performance comparison is made based on the annual combined COP and Life Cycle Climate Performance (LCCP) for operation in selected cities of Middle East and India. Our results show that in extreme warm climate, the energy efficiency of the proposed configuration exceeds that of all-CO 2 configuration by a maximum of about 12.23% and the total emissions are lower by up to 11.20%. However, the all-CO 2 multi ejector system performs better in cold and mild warm climate. In the NH 3 /CO 2 cascade, the high temperature NH 3 system can be designed to be isolated from the accessible locations of the supermarket. Here, the work presented is expected to help adoption of natural refrigerants such as CO 2 and NH 3 for commercial application in extreme warm climate conditions prevailing in many cities of Middle East and India.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Electrical resistivity tomography determines the spatial distribution of clay layer thickness and aquifer vulnerability, Kandal Province, Cambodia

Despite being rich in water resources, many areas of South East Asia face difficulties in securing clean water supply. This is particularly problematic in regions with a rapidly growing population. In this study, the spatial variability of the thickness of a clay layer, controlling surface – groundwater interactions that affect aquifer vulnerability, was investigated using electrical resistivity tomography (ERT). Data were acquired along two transects, showing significant differences in the imaged resistivities. Borehole samples were analyzed regarding particle density and composition, and linked to their resistivity. The obtained relationships were used to translate the field electrical resistivities into lithologies. Those revealed considerable variations in the thickness of the clay layer, ranging from 0 m up to 25 m. Geochemical data, highlighting zones of increased ingress of surface water into the groundwater, confirmed areas of discontinuities in the clay layer, which act as preferential flow paths. The results may guide urban planning of the Phnom Penh city expansion, in order to supply the growing population with safe water. The presented approach of using geophysics to estimate groundwater availability, accessibility, and vulnerability is not only applicable to Kandal Province, Cambodia, but also to many other areas of fast urbanization in South East Asia and beyond.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗