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At least 1,315 records · Page 73

Effects of model deficiencies on parameter estimation

Reliable structural dynamic models will be required as a basis for deriving the reduced-order plant models used in control systems for large space structures. Ground vibration testing and model verification will play an important role in the development of these models; however, fundamental differences between the space environment and earth environment, as well as variations in structural properties due to as-built conditions, will make on-orbit identification essential. The efficiency, and perhaps even the success, of on-orbit identification will depend on having a valid model of the structure. It is envisioned that the identification process will primarily involve parametric methods. Given a correct model, a variety of estimation algorithms may be used to estimate parameter values. This paper explores the effects of modeling errors and model deficiencies on parameter estimation by reviewing previous case histories. The effects depend at least to some extent on the estimation algorithm being used. Bayesian estimation was used in the case histories presented here. It is therefore conceivable that the behavior of an estimation algorithm might be useful in detecting and possibly even diagnosing deficiencies. In practice, the task is complicated by the presence of systematic errors in experimental procedures and data processing and in the use of the estimation procedures themselves.

Hasselman, T. K.↗

Modeling Common-Sense Decisions in Artificial Intelligence

A methodology has been conceived for efficient synthesis of dynamical models that simulate common-sense decision- making processes. This methodology is intended to contribute to the design of artificial-intelligence systems that could imitate human common-sense decision making or assist humans in making correct decisions in unanticipated circumstances. This methodology is a product of continuing research on mathematical models of the behaviors of single- and multi-agent systems known in biology, economics, and sociology, ranging from a single-cell organism at one extreme to the whole of human society at the other extreme. Earlier results of this research were reported in several prior NASA Tech Briefs articles, the three most recent and relevant being Characteristics of Dynamics of Intelligent Systems (NPO -21037), NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 26, No. 12 (December 2002), page 48; Self-Supervised Dynamical Systems (NPO-30634), NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 27, No. 3 (March 2003), page 72; and Complexity for Survival of Living Systems (NPO- 43302), NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 33, No. 7 (July 2009), page 62. The methodology involves the concepts reported previously, albeit viewed from a different perspective. One of the main underlying ideas is to extend the application of physical first principles to the behaviors of living systems. Models of motor dynamics are used to simulate the observable behaviors of systems or objects of interest, and models of mental dynamics are used to represent the evolution of the corresponding knowledge bases. For a given system, the knowledge base is modeled in the form of probability distributions and the mental dynamics is represented by models of the evolution of the probability densities or, equivalently, models of flows of information. Autonomy is imparted to the decisionmaking process by feedback from mental to motor dynamics. This feedback replaces unavailable external information by information stored in the internal knowledge base. Representation of the dynamical models in a parameterized form reduces the task of common-sense-based decision making to a solution of the following hetero-associated-memory problem: store a set of m predetermined stochastic processes given by their probability distributions in such a way that when presented with an unexpected change in the form of an input out of the set of M inputs, the coupled motormental dynamics converges to the corresponding one of the m pre-assigned stochastic process, and a sample of this process represents the decision.

Zak, Michail↗

Impact of the numerical solution approach of a plant hydrodynamic model (v0.1) on vegetation dynamics

Abstract. Numerous plant hydrodynamic models have started to be implemented in vegetation dynamics models, reflecting the central role of plant hydraulic traits in driving water, energy, and carbon cycles, as well as plant adaptation to climate change. Different numerical approximations of the governing equations of the hydrodynamic models have been documented, but the numerical accuracy of these models and its subsequent effects on the simulated vegetation function and dynamics have rarely been evaluated. Using different numerical solution methods (including implicit and explicit approaches) and vertical discrete grid resolutions, we evaluated the numerical performance of a plant hydrodynamic module in the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES-HYDRO version 0.1) based on single-point and global simulations. Our simulation results showed that when near-surface vertical grid spacing is coarsened (grid size >10 cm), the model significantly overestimates aboveground biomass (AGB) in most of the temperate forest locations and underestimates AGB in the boreal forest locations, as compared to a simulation with finer vertical grid spacing. Grid coarsening has a small effect on AGB in the tropical zones of Asia and South America. In particular, coarse surface grid resolution should not be used when there are large and prolonged water content differences among soil layers at depths due to long dry-season duration and/or well-drained soil or when soil evaporation is a dominant fraction of evapotranspiration. Similarly, coarse surface grid resolution should not be used when there is lithologic discontinuity along the soil depth. This information is useful for uncertainty quantification, sensitivity analysis, or the training of surrogate models to design the simulations when computational cost limits the use of ensemble simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Signal-Compensation-Based Adaptive PID Control for Fused Magnesia Smelting Processes

For fused magnesia smelting processes, the proportional-integral-derivative (PID) controller is difficult to regulate the smelting currents within desired ranges due to unexpected variations of the dynamics caused by material feeding operations. To solve this problem, we first proposed its dynamic model composed of a linear model and an uncertain nonlinear dynamic system that describes the unknown time-varying dynamics of nonlinearity and strong couplings among controlled variables. Then, using the accurately calculated value of the uncertain part at the previous sampling time instant and the tracking error that reflects the influence of its change rate, we developed a feedforward and a one-step optimal control to obtain two signal compensators to eliminate the impact of frequent variations of the uncertainties. For the compensators, we proposed a weight selection method to minimize the sum of the squared tracking error with ensured closed-loop stability. Based on the abovementioned modeling and control structure, we finally developed a novel adaptive PID controller augmented with signal compensators to control the whole process. Industrial applications have shown that the proposed method can always keep the tracking error and the control input within their targeted ranges, leading to a significantly reduced energy consumption per ton and increased fused magnesia production.

Wang, Weizhou↗

The impact of the atmospheric turbulence-development tendency on new particle formation: a common finding on three continents

Abstract A new mechanism of new particle formation (NPF) is investigated using comprehensive measurements of aerosol physicochemical quantities and meteorological variables made in three continents, including Beijing, China; the Southern Great Plains site in the USA; and SMEAR II Station in Hyytiälä, Finland. Despite the considerably different emissions of chemical species among the sites, a common relationship was found between the characteristics of NPF and the stability intensity. The stability parameter (ζ = Z/L, where Z is the height above ground and L is the Monin–Obukhov length) is found to play an important role; it drops significantly before NPF as the atmosphere becomes more unstable, which may serve as an indicator of nucleation bursts. As the atmosphere becomes unstable, the NPF duration is closely related to the tendency for turbulence development, which influences the evolution of the condensation sink. Presumably, the unstable atmosphere may dilute pre-existing particles, effectively reducing the condensation sink, especially at coarse mode to foster nucleation. This new mechanism is confirmed by model simulations using a molecular dynamic model that mimics the impact of turbulence development on nucleation by inducing and intensifying homogeneous nucleation events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Development of a Linear Stirling System Model with Varying Heat Inputs

The linear model of the Stirling system developed by NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) has been extended to include a user-specified heat input. Previously developed linear models were limited to the Stirling convertor and electrical load. They represented the thermodynamic cycle with pressure factors that remained constant. The numerical values of the pressure factors were generated by linearizing GRC's nonlinear System Dynamic Model (SDM) of the convertor at a chosen operating point. The pressure factors were fixed for that operating point, thus, the model lost accuracy if a transition to a different operating point were simulated. Although the previous linear model was used in developing controllers that manipulated current, voltage, and piston position, it could not be used in the development of control algorithms that regulated hot-end temperature. This basic model was extended to include the thermal dynamics associated with a hot-end temperature that varies over time in response to external changes as well as to changes in the Stirling cycle. The linear model described herein includes not only dynamics of the piston, displacer, gas, and electrical circuit, but also the transient effects of the heater head thermal inertia. The linear version algebraically couples two separate linear dynamic models, one model of the Stirling convertor and one model of the thermal system, through the pressure factors. The thermal system model includes heat flow of heat transfer fluid, insulation loss, and temperature drops from the heat source to the Stirling convertor expansion space. The linear model was compared to a nonlinear model, and performance was very similar. The resulting linear model can be implemented in a variety of computing environments, and is suitable for analysis with classical and state space controls analysis techniques.

Regan, Timothy F.↗

Stage Separation Performance Analysis Project

Stage separation process is an important phenomenon in multi-stage launch vehicle operation. The transient flowfield coupled with the multi-body systems is a challenging problem in design analysis. The thermodynamics environment with burning propellants during the upper-stage engine start in the separation processes adds to the complexity of the-entire system. Understanding the underlying flow physics and vehicle dynamics during stage separation is required in designing a multi-stage launch vehicle with good flight performance. A computational fluid dynamics model with the capability to coupling transient multi-body dynamics systems will be a useful tool for simulating the effects of transient flowfield, plume/jet heating and vehicle dynamics. A computational model using generalize mesh system will be used as the basis of this development. The multi-body dynamics system will be solved, by integrating a system of six-degree-of-freedom equations of motion with high accuracy. Multi-body mesh system and their interactions will be modeled using parallel computing algorithms. Adaptive mesh refinement method will also be employed to enhance solution accuracy in the transient process.

Chen, Yen-Sen↗

Development of a Linear Stirling Model with Varying Heat Inputs

The linear model of the Stirling system developed by NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) has been extended to include a user-specified heat input. Previously developed linear models were limited to the Stirling convertor and electrical load. They represented the thermodynamic cycle with pressure factors that remained constant. The numerical values of the pressure factors were generated by linearizing GRC s non-linear System Dynamic Model (SDM) of the convertor at a chosen operating point. The pressure factors were fixed for that operating point, thus, the model lost accuracy if a transition to a different operating point were simulated. Although the previous linear model was used in developing controllers that manipulated current, voltage, and piston position, it could not be used in the development of control algorithms that regulated hot-end temperature. This basic model was extended to include the thermal dynamics associated with a hot-end temperature that varies over time in response to external changes as well as to changes in the Stirling cycle. The linear model described herein includes not only dynamics of the piston, displacer, gas, and electrical circuit, but also the transient effects of the heater head thermal inertia. The linear version algebraically couples two separate linear dynamic models, one model of the Stirling convertor and one model of the thermal system, through the pressure factors. The thermal system model includes heat flow of heat transfer fluid, insulation loss, and temperature drops from the heat source to the Stirling convertor expansion space. The linear model was compared to a nonlinear model, and performance was very similar. The resulting linear model can be implemented in a variety of computing environments, and is suitable for analysis with classical and state space controls analysis techniques.

Regan, Timothy F.↗

Historical and Future Global Irrigation Energy Consumption by Fuel and Region

Irrigation energy use is a significant component of agricultural production costs, contributing directly to the energy and emissions intensity of crop production and ultimately to food prices. Understanding the existing structure of irrigation energy consumption help achieve food-energy-water security and environmental goals. We present a comprehensive global data set detailing country-level irrigation energy consumption, emphasizing the comparative use of electric, diesel, and emerging solar pumps. To our knowledge, no such data set exists. We draw from a literature review to develop a logistic transformed regression model to estimate the shares of fuel sources for irrigation across countries over historical years to construct a global data set of country-level irrigation energy consumption by multiple fuel sources. Additionally, we compare our estimates of irrigation energy use with agricultural energy use as reported by the International Energy Agency and other external sources. We then use this data to project future irrigation energy use with the Global Change Analysis Model, which is a multisector dynamics model, to showcase the usage of this data set. Projections under the reference scenario show a global shift in fuel types for irrigation pumping, while patterns vary across regions, with India and Pakistan leading in solar-powered irrigation growth and countries like the USA and China continuing to rely primarily on grid electricity. This data set provides a resource to understand the role of irrigation fuel choices within the broader energy sector, as well as the connected agricultural, land use, and water sectors under alternative future scenarios, enabling informed decision making toward efficient agricultural practices.

Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM)↗

Multinucleon transfer in 48 Ti + 48 Ti collisions at 11.5 MeV/nucleon

In this work, experimental data of projectile fragment distributions from a preliminary experimental study of the reaction of 11.5 MeV/nucleon 48 Ti on 48 Ti analyzed with the MARS recoil separator at the Cyclotron Institute of Texas A&M University are presented. Production cross sections, momentum distributions and excitation-energy distributions are extracted and compared with calculations with the Deep Inelastic Transfer (DIT) model and the Constrained Molecular Dynamics model (CoMD). Despite the limited extent of the present dataset, an overall agreement of the models with the data is found pointing at the prevailing nucleon-exchange character of the collisions at this energy.

Souliotis, Georgios↗

Wind tunnel determination of dynamic cross-coupling derivatives - A new approach

The latest developments in the NAE ongoing dynamic stability research program are briefly summarized. Emphasis is placed on the recently developed wind-tunnel data reduction procedures used to obtain cross and cross-coupling derivatives due to an oscillatory motion. These procedures, which account for the dynamic behaviour of the model-balance subsystem, are described for the balance configurations currently in use. The principles on which they are based, however, are quite general and can therefore be applied to other balance configurations. Two full-model dynamic stability apparatuses are described and typical results, obtained from dynamic calibrations as well as from wind-tunnel experiments, are presented.

Hanff, E. S.↗

Using PCDS to study the influence of UV flux variation on the middle atmosphere

The value of the Pilot Climate Data System (PCDS) in examining the influences of short-period solar flux variations on the middle atmosphere was demonstrated. Several Nimbus satellite data sets proposed for the study exist in the PCDS. Planned for retrieval through the PCDS are ozone mixing ratios and cumulative ozone profiles available from the Backscatter Ultraviolet Spectrophotometer on Nimbus-4. Also to be accessed are Nimbus-7 data sets that will provide ozone and nitrogen dioxide mixing ratios, temperature profiles from the Limb Infrared Monitor of the Stratosphere, and ozone mixing ratio profiles from the Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet Spectrophotometer. Bypassing the time-consuming process of reading raw data tapes, the researchers plan to transfer the PCDS processed data to an IBM PC at Iowa State University. The IBM PC will serve as an intermediate vehicle for transferring the data to the NOAA CYBER 840 at Boulder, Colorado, where research will continue on both an eight-layer radiative-photochemical numerical model and on a nonlinear dynamical model. in this research are the FGGE and ERB data sets. These relevant data sets also reside in the PCDS. Problems associated with remote access to the PCDS were discussed in regard to all the PCDS data sets.

Heilman, W.↗

Winds from Cataclysmic Variables

Current understanding of the winds from Cataclysmic Variables is discussed, with particular emphasis on the understanding and modeling of the line profiles. Recent efforts at constructing such models are summarized, and a dynamical model is constructed which may serve to illustrate some of the physical principles acting in CV winds.

Kallman, T.↗

An assessment of the crustal remelting hypothesis for volcanism in the Freyja Montes deformation zone

The linear mountain belts of Ishtar Terra on Venus are notable for their topographic relief and slope and for the intensity of surface deformation. The mountains surround the highland plain Lakshmi Planum, the site of two major paterae and numerous other volcanic features and deposits, and evidence is widespread for volcanism within the mountains and in terrain immediately outward of the mountain belt units. While two hypotheses for magmatism can be distinguished on the basis of the chemistry of the melts, chemical data are presently lacking for the Ishtar region. The competing hypotheses for magmatism in Western Ishtar Terra can also be tested with thermal models, given a kinematic or dynamic model for the evolution of the region. The crustal remelting hypothesis is assessed, using the kinematic scenario of Head for the evolution of Freyja Montes. In that scenario, Freyja Montes formed by a sequence of large scale underthrusts of the lithosphere of the North Polar Plains beneath Ishtar Terra, with successive blocks of underthrust crust sutured in imbricate fashion onto the thickened crust of Lakshmi Planum and the mantle portion of underthrusting lithosphere episodically detached. The numerical experiments thus show that volcanic activity associated with the formation of the Frejya Montes deformation zone can be explained by crustal melting, due either to direct contact of crustal material with the hot asthenosphere or to heat generation in a thickened crustal layer.

Namiki, Noriyuki↗

Modelled and measured strain in mascon basins on the moon

The close association of wrinkle ridges and grabens with mascon basins on the Moon has suggested that the responsible compression and extension resulted from basin subsidence and peripheral flexing of the lithosphere. The distribution of grabens and wrinkle ridges associated with mascon basins has been further used along with elastic plate bending models to constrain the thickness of the lithosphere at the time of their formation. Kinematic models for basin subsidence have also been developed and compared with strains inferred from grabens and wrinkle ridges. Note that kinematic models may be preferable to dynamic models because the strain associated with tectonic features can be compared directly with model predictions and because fewer assumptions are required for their calculations, such as perfect elasticity and specific values of the elastic moduli. Also, if the results from kinematic models compare favorably with the strain estimated across the tectonic features on the Moon, then a global strain field may not be necessary. Herein, the strain inferred for wrinkle ridges and grabens was compared to that calculated from a simple kinematic subsidence model for mascon basins on the Moon.

Golombek, M. P.↗

Failure modes of reduced-order orbit determination filters and their remedies

Ways in which failure can occur in reduced-order, orbit determination filter, error covariance calculations are discussed. In the context of this article, reduced-order filters denote nonoptimal filters which include fixed levels of uncertainty in some parameters of the measurement models or in the spacecraft dynamical model which are not explicitly estimated in the filter equations. Failure is defined as an increase in the orbit determination covariance with the addition of data or as an unreasonable growth in the covariance with time, i.e., nonasymptotic behavior of the covariance. Some simple, known cases of failure are discussed along with their traditional remedies. In addition, more modern remedies are discussed which are currently under development at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory. The article first describes the known problems of reduced-order filters when they are employed for orbit determination, and their traditional remedies. Then, having defined these, the relevancy and desirability of the more modern remedies are made apparent.

Scheeres, D. J.↗

Volume 35, AMT-1 Cruise Report and Preliminary Results

This report documents the scientific activities on board the Royal Research Ship (RRS) 'James Clark Ross' during the irst Atlantic Meridional Transect (AMT-1), 21 September to 24 October 1995. The ship sailed from Grimsby (England) for Montevideo (Uruguay) and then continued on to Stanley (Falkland Islands). The primary objective of the AMT program is to investigate basic biological processes in the open Atlantic Ocean over very broad spatial scales. For AMT-1, the meridional range covered was approximately 50 deg N to 50 deg S or nearly 8,000 nmi. The measurements to be taken during the AMT cruises are fundamental for the calibration, validation, and continuing understanding of remotely sensed observations of biological oceanography. They are also important for understanding plankton community structure over latitudinal scales and the role of the world ocean in global carbon cycles. During AMT-1 a variety of instruments were used to map the physical, chemical, and biological structure of the upper 200 m of the water column. Ocean color measurements were made using state-of-the-art sensors, whose calibration was traceable to the highest international standards. New advances in fluorometry were used to measure photosynthetic activity, which was then used to further interpret primary productivity. A unique set of samples and data were collected for the planktonic assemblages that vary throughout the range of the transect. These data will yield new interpretations on community composition and their role in carbon cycling. While the various provinces of the Atlantic Ocean were being crossed, the partial pressure of CO2 was related to biological productivity. This comparison revealed the areas of drawdown of atmospheric CO2 and how these areas relate to the surrounding biological productivity. These data, plus the measurements of light attenuation and phytoplankton optical properties, will be used as a primary input for basin-scale biological productivity models to help develop ecosystem dynamics models which will be important for improving the forecasting abilities of modelers. The AMT program is also attempting to meet the needs of international agencies in their implementation of Sensor Intercomparison and Merger for Biological and Interdisciplinary Ocean Studies (SIMBIOS), a program to develop a methodology and operational capability to combine data products from the various ocean color satellite missions.

Hooker, Stanford B.↗

Wind-Based Navigation of a Hot-air Balloon on Titan: A Feasibility Study

Current analysis of data streamed back to Earth by the Cassini spacecraft features Titan as one of the most exciting places in the solar system. NASA centers and universities around the US, as well as the European Space Agency, are studying the possibility of sending, as part of the next mission to this giant moon of Saturn, a hot-air balloon (Montgolfier-type) for further and more in-depth exploration. The basic idea would be to design a reliable, semi-autonomous, and yet cheap Montgolfier capable of using continuous flow of waste heat from a power source to lift the balloon and sustain its altitude in the Titan environment. In this paper we study the problem of locally navigating a hot-air balloon in the nitrogen-based Titan atmosphere. The basic idea is to define a strategy (i.e. design of a suitable guidance system) that allows autonomous and semi-autonomous navigation of the balloon using the available (and partial) knowledge of the wind structure blowing on the saturnian satellite surface. Starting from first principles we determined the appropriate thermal and dynamical models describing (a) the vertical dynamics of the balloon and (b) the dynamics of the balloon moving on a vertical plane (2-D motion). Next, various non-linear fuzzy-based control strategies have been evaluated, analyzed and implemented in MATLAB to numerically simulate the capability of the system to simultaneously maintain altitude, as well as a scientifically desirable trajectory. We also looked at the ability of the balloon to perform station keeping. The results of the simulation are encouraging and show the effectiveness of such a system to cheaply and effectively perform semiautonomous exploration of Titan.

balloon dynamics↗