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At least 1,315 records · Page 73

Optimal operational controls for power grid

Power grid operation is facing increased penetration of renewables and distributed energy resources at both transmission and distribution levels. This presents an increased level of randomness and uncertainty for its operational quality, where the challenges are mainly how controls and optimizations can be performed so that the operational quality of the power grid can be maintained. An interesting feature is also that we need to make a good use of uncertainties embedded in the swing equation from the renewable contributions rather than simply trying to minimize the impact of uncertainties. Furthermore, this requires effective solutions on system estimation, control, and optimization. Indeed, in past decades, work has been carried out on the development of advanced controls and optimization for such complicated dynamic systems. Examples are optimal operational control for both performance and stability enhancement considering random renewables penetration, frequency, and active power control for microgrids and parameter estimation for various parts of the power grid.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Nearly optimal state preparation for quantum simulations of lattice gauge theories

Here, we present several improvements to the recently developed ground-state preparation algorithm based on the quantum eigenvalue transformation for unitary matrices (QETU), apply this algorithm to a lattice formulation of U(1) gauge theory in (2+1) dimensions, as well as propose an alternative application of QETU, a highly efficient preparation of Gaussian distributions. The QETU technique was originally proposed as an algorithm for nearly optimal ground-state preparation and ground-state energy estimation on early fault-tolerant devices. It uses the time-evolution input model, which can potentially overcome the large overall prefactor in the asymptotic gate cost arising in similar algorithms based on the Hamiltonian input model. We present modifications to the original QETU algorithm that significantly reduce the cost for the cases of both exact and Trotterized implementation of the time evolution circuit. We use QETU to prepare the ground state of a U(1) lattice gauge theory in two spatial dimensions, explore the dependence of computational resources on the desired precision and system parameters, and discuss the applicability of our results to general lattice gauge theories. We also demonstrate how the QETU technique can be utilized for preparing Gaussian distributions and wave packets in a way which outperforms existing algorithms for as little as n q ≳ 2–5 qubits.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Neglecting Model Parametric Uncertainty Can Drastically Underestimate Flood Risks

Abstract Floods drive dynamic and deeply uncertain risks for people and infrastructures. Uncertainty characterization is a crucial step in improving the predictive understanding of multi‐sector dynamics and the design of risk‐management strategies. Current approaches to estimate flood hazards often sample only a relatively small subset of the known unknowns, for example, the uncertainties surrounding the model parameters. This approach neglects the impacts of key uncertainties on hazards and system dynamics. Here we mainstream a recently developed method for Bayesian inference to calibrate a computationally expensive distributed hydrologic model. We compare three different calibration approaches: (a) stepwise line search, (b) precalibration or screening, and (c) the Fast Model Calibrations (FaMoS) approach. FaMoS deploys a particle‐based approach that takes advantage of the massive parallelization afforded by modern high‐performance computing systems. We quantify how neglecting parametric uncertainty and data discrepancy can drastically underestimate extreme flood events and risks. Precalibration improves prediction skill score over a stepwise line search. The Bayesian calibration improves the uncertainty characterization of model parameters and flood risk projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Extensions to models of the galaxy–halo connection

ABSTRACT We explore two widely used empirical models for the galaxy–halo connection, subhalo abundance matching (SHAM) and the halo occupation distribution (HOD), and compare them with the hydrodynamical simulation IllustrisTNG (TNG) for multiple statistics quantifying the galaxy distribution at $n_{\rm gal}\approx 1.3\times 10^{-3}\, ({\rm Mpc}\,h^{-1})^{-3}$. We observe that in their most straightforward implementations, both models fail to reproduce the two-point clustering measured in TNG. We find that SHAM models that use the relaxation velocity, Vrelax, and the peak velocity, Vpeak, perform best, and match the clustering reasonably well, although neither captures adequately the one-halo clustering. Splitting the total sample into sub-populations, we discover that SHAM overpredicts the clustering of high-mass, blue, star-forming, and late-forming galaxies and underpredicts that of low-mass, red, quiescent, and early-forming galaxies. We also study various baryonic effects, finding that subhaloes in the dark-matter-only simulation have consistently higher values of their SHAM-proxy properties than their full-physics counterparts. We then consider a 2D implementation of the HOD model augmented with a secondary parameter (environment, velocity anisotropy, σ2Rhalf-mass, and total potential) tuned so as to match the two-point clustering of the IllustrisTNG galaxies on large scales. We analyse these galaxy populations adopting alternative statistical tools such as galaxy–galaxy lensing, void–galaxy cross-correlations, and cumulants of the density field, finding that the hydrodynamical galaxy distribution disfavours σ2Rhalf-mass and the total potential as secondary parameters, while the environment and velocity anisotropy samples are consistent with full physics across all statistical probes examined. Our results demonstrate the power of examining multiple statistics for determining the secondary parameters that are vital for understanding the galaxy–halo connection.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Dynamics of heavy quarks in strongly coupled $\mathcal{N}$ = 4 SYM plasma

We calculate the probability distribution P(k) for a heavy quark with velocity v propagating through strongly coupled N = 4 SYM plasma in the ’t Hooft limit (N c → ∞, λ = g 2 N c → ∞) at a temperature T to acquire a momentum k due to interactions with the plasma. This distribution encodes the well-known drag coefficient η D and the transverse and longitudinal momentum diffusion coefficients κ T and κ L . The jet quenching parameter $\hat{q}$ can be extracted from P(k) for v = 1. Going beyond these known Gaussian characteristics of P(k), our calculation determines all of the higher order and mixed moments to leading order in 1/$\sqrt{λ}$ for the first time. These non-Gaussian features of P(k) include qualitatively novel correlations between longitudinal energy loss and transverse momentum broadening at nonzero v. We show that all higher moments scale characteristically with an effective temperature of the boosted plasma in the heavy quark rest frame, and we demonstrate that these non-Gaussian characteristics can be sizable in magnitude and even dominant in physically relevant situations. We use these results to derive a Kolmogorov equation for the evolution of the probability distribution for the total momentum of a heavy quark that propagates through strongly coupled plasma. This evolution equation accounts for all higher order correlations between transverse momentum broadening and longitudinal energy loss, which we have calculated from first principles. It reduces to a Fokker-Planck equation when truncated to only include the effects of η D , κ T and κ L . Remarkably, while heavy quarks do not reach kinetic equilibrium with the plasma if evolved with this Fokker-Planck equation, by showing that the Boltzmann distribution is a static solution of the all-order Kolmogorov equation that we have derived we demonstrate that heavy quarks do reach kinetic equilibrium if evolved with this equation. Our results thus provide a dynamically complete framework for understanding the thermalization of a heavy quark that may be initially far from equilibrium in the strongly coupled N = 4 SYM plasma — as well as new insight into heavy quark transport and equilibration in quark-gluon plasma.

Holography and Hydrodynamics↗

Jet fragmentation transverse momentum distributions in pp and p-Pb collisions at $ \sqrt{s}$, $\sqrt{s_{\mathrm{NN}}}$ = 5.02 TeV

Jet fragmentation transverse momentum ( j T ) distributions are measured in proton-proton (pp) and proton-lead (p-Pb) collisions at s NN = 5 . 02 TeV with the ALICE experiment at the LHC. Jets are reconstructed with the ALICE tracking detectors and electromagnetic calorimeter using the anti- k T algorithm with resolution parameter R = 0 . 4 in the pseudorapidity range |η| < 0 . 25. The j T values are calculated for charged particles inside a fixed cone with a radius R = 0 . 4 around the reconstructed jet axis. The measured j T distributions are compared with a variety of parton-shower models. Herwig and P ythia 8 based models describe the data well for the higher j T region, while they underestimate the lower j T region. The j T distributions are further characterised by fitting them with a function composed of an inverse gamma function for higher j T values (called the “wide component”), related to the perturbative component of the fragmentation process, and with a Gaussian for lower j T values (called the “narrow component”), predominantly connected to the hadronisation process. The width of the Gaussian has only a weak dependence on jet transverse momentum, while that of the inverse gamma function increases with increasing jet transverse momentum. For the narrow component, the measured trends are successfully described by all models except for Herwig. For the wide component, Herwig and PYTHIA 8 based models slightly underestimate the data for the higher jet transverse momentum region. These measurements set constraints on models of jet fragmentation and hadronisation.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Systematic Bayesian evaluation of resonance parameters in 19 Ne for the 15 O ⁡(𝛼, 𝛾)⁢ 19 Ne and 18 F ⁡(𝑝, 𝛼)⁢ 15 O reactions

Here, we present a comprehensive evaluation of the nuclear structure properties of 19 Ne using a novel and rigorous Bayesian statistical framework. Precise characterization of 19 Ne resonance parameters is critical for accurately determining reaction rates of the astrophysically significant 15 O ⁡(𝛼, 𝛾)⁢ 19 Ne and 18 F ⁡(𝑝, 𝛼)⁢ 15 O reactions, which govern breakout from the hot CNO cycle in x-ray bursts and influence 𝛾-ray emission in novae, respectively. By reconstructing likelihood functions from published experimental data—including asymmetric uncertainties and upper or lower limits—we derive posterior distributions for resonance energies, decay widths, and branching ratios. Our Bayesian approach systematically incorporates previously reported discrepancies among measurements, providing a statistically robust and consistent treatment of these uncertainties. The evaluated resonance parameters and associated uncertainties provide crucial input for stellar nucleosynthesis modeling, contributing to a refined understanding of explosive astrophysical phenomena.

Kim, Sohyun H. [Sungkyunkwan Univ., Suwon (Republi↗

Updates to the n+ 63,65 Cu Evaluations in the Resolved Resonance Region [Slides]

This presentation discusses the motivation and background of the n+ 63,65 Cu Evaluations in the Resolved Resonance Region which is to study the interaction of neutrons with copper as it is important in nuclear applications since critical assembly configurations include metallic copper as reflector. In support to the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Nuclear Criticality Safety Program (NCSP), measurements and related evaluations of 63,65 Cu isotopes were selected to improve the agreement with the benchmarks and to assess the importance of the angular distribution data for reactor calculations. Previous and current evaluation work is supported by an experimental campaign initiated before 2010, the 63,65 Cu R-matrix analysis generated resonance parameters up to 300 keV. However, due to outstanding issues in the benchmark performance, ENDF/B-VIII.0 library released a truncated set of resonance parameters up to 100 keV. The goal of this work is to generate an updated set of resonance parameters in the 100-300 keV range to improve the benchmark performance of 63,65 Cu isotopes. In conclusion, R-matrix analysis to update 63,65 Cu evaluations was performed to simultaneously improve benchmark performance and extend the RRR to 300 keV. The benchmark calculations suggest the increased capture cross sections are beneficial, however, further investigation of the measured capture data is needed to understand the large normalization scaling factor needed to improve the reactivity. Also, the copper-reflected benchmarks indicate the need to further investigate angular distributions and extension of RRR to 300 keV is aided well by level statistics considerations. Work to refine the fit of individual resonances is ongoing.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

Ensemble models for circuit topology estimation, fault detection and classification in distribution systems

This paper presents a methodology for simultaneous fault detection, classification, and topology estimation for adaptive protection of distribution systems. The methodology estimates the probability of the occurrence of each one of these events by using a hybrid structure that combines three sub-systems, a convolutional neural network for topology estimation, a fault detection based on predictive residual analysis, and a standard support vector machine with probabilistic output for fault classification. The input to all these sub-systems is the local voltage and current measurements. A convolutional neural network uses these local measurements in the form of sequential data to extract features and estimate the topology conditions. The fault detector is constructed with a Bayesian stage (a multitask Gaussian process) that computes a predictive distribution (assumed to be Gaussian) of the residuals using the input. Since the distribution is known, these residuals can be transformed into a Standard distribution, whose values are then introduced into a one-class support vector machine. The structure allows using a one-class support vector machine without parameter cross-validation, so the fault detector is fully unsupervised. Finally, a support vector machine uses the input to perform the classification of the fault types. All three sub-systems can work in a parallel setup for both performance and computation efficiency. In conclusion, we test all three sub-systems included in the structure on a modified IEEE123 bus system, and we compare and evaluate the results with standard approaches.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

A multi-dimensional parametric study of variability in multi-phase flow dynamics during geologic CO 2 sequestration accelerated with machine learning

Successful geologic CO 2 storage projects depend on numerical simulations to predict reservoir performance during site selection, injection verification, and post-injection monitoring phases of the project. These numerical simulations solve non-linear sets of coupled partial differential equations, while accounting for multi-phase fluid dynamics on the basis of constitutive equations that are embedded into the solution scheme. As a consequence, individual simulations often require tens to hundreds of hours to complete on high-performance computing clusters. Moreover, laboratory experiments reveal that parametric functions for capillary pressure and relative permeability exhibit substantial variability, even within the same rock type. This combination of computational expense and wide-ranging parametric variability means that there remains substantial uncertainty in the behavior of multi-phase CO 2 -water systems, particularly in the context of feedbacks between relative permeability and capillary pressure. To bridge this knowledge gap, here we develop a novel workflow that utilizes physics-based numerical simulation to train an artificial neural network (ANN) emulator for interrogating the multivariate parameter space that governs both capillary pressure and relative permeability. With this approach, the ANN is trained to emulate both fluid pressure distribution and CO 2 saturation, which are then interrogated quantitatively to generate parametric response surface mappings with high-fidelity resolution. Results from this study initially show that capillary entry pressure is the dominant control on both CO 2 plume geometry and fluid pressure propagation when considering the combined effects of capillary pressure and relative permeability, particularly when phase interference is low and residual CO 2 saturation is high. Moreover, the ANN emulator provides tremendous computational speed-up by computing 2691 individual simulations in several minutes; whereas, the same simulation ensemble would have required ~3 years of simulation time using only physics-based simulation methods (25,000 times speed up).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Mesh objective stochastic simulations of quasibrittle fracture

Continuum finite element (FE) modeling of damage and failure of quasibrittle structures suffers from the spurious mesh sensitivity due to strain localization. Here this issue has been addressed for deterministic analysis through the development of localization limiters. Here this study proposes a mechanism-based model to mitigate the mesh sensitivity in stochastic FE simulations of quasibrittle fracture. The interest is placed on the analysis of large-size structures, where the mesh size is conveniently chosen to be larger than the width of the fracture process zone as well as the correlation length of the random fields of constitutive properties. The present model is formulated within the framework of continuum damage mechanics. Two localization parameters are introduced to describe the evolution of the damage pattern of each finite element. These parameters are used to guide the energy regularization of the constitutive law, as well as to formulate the mesh-dependent probability distributions of constitutive properties. Depending on the prevailing damage pattern, different energy regularization schemes and mesh dependence of the probability distribution functions are used in the constitutive law. The model is applied to simulate the stochastic failure behavior of quasibrittle structures of different geometries featuring different failure processes including damage initiation, localization, and propagation. It is shown that using fixed probability distribution functions of constitutive properties could lead to strong mesh dependence of the prediction of the mean and variance of the structural load capacity. The probability distribution functions of constitutive properties must be linked to the damage pattern, which may evolve during the failure process. Such a mechanism-based modeling of the probability distributions of constitutive properties is essential for mitigating the spurious mesh sensitivity in stochastic FE analysis of quasibrittle fracture.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Analysis of contact conditions and microstructure evolution in shear assisted processing and extrusion using smoothed particle hydrodynamics method

Shear assisted processing and extrusion (ShAPE) is a solid-phase processing technique that adds an additional shear force as compared with a conventional extrusion approach. Recently, ShAPE has demonstrated the capability of extruding high-performance aluminum alloy 7075 (AA7075) tubes at speeds up to 12.2 m/min without surface tearing. However, the relationship among the ShAPE processing parameters, thermomechanical conditions, contact conditions, heat generation, and microstructure evolution remains primarily empirical because an insightful understanding of the associated physics is still lacking. To help elucidate these relationships, this work proposes a thermomechanical meshfree model for the first time for ShAPE processing of AA7075 using the smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) method. The meshfree model is first validated thoroughly by experimental data in terms of material flow, die face temperature, and extrusion force with various processing parameters. The validated model is then used to analyze the steady-state contact conditions and heat generation rates during ShAPE processing. Distributions of the average grain size of AA7075 being extruded are calculated using the SPH model output. The meshfree model results reveal that extrusions conducted at lower temperatures and higher strain rates yield more refined grains and possibly higher material strength, which is also consistent with the experimental observations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Narrow operator models of stellarator equilibria in Fourier Zernike basis

Numerical computation of the ideal magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) equilibrium magnetic field is at the base of stellarator optimisation and provides the starting point for solving more sophisticated partial differential equations like transport or turbulence models. Conventional approaches solve for a single stationary point of the ideal MHD equations, which is fully defined by three invariants and the numerical scheme employed by the solver. We present the first numerical approach that can solve for a continuous distribution of equilibria with fixed boundary and rotational transform, varying only the pressure invariant. This approach minimises the force residual by optimising parameters of multilayer perceptrons that map from a scalar pressure multiplier to the Fourier Zernike basis as implemented in the modern stellarator equilibrium solver DESC.

fusion plasma↗

Synthesis and Characterization of Carbon Microbeads

We report a microfluidic-based droplet generation platform for synthesizing micron-sized porous carbon microspheres. The setup employs carbon materials such as graphite, carbon nanotubes, graphene, fullerenes, and carbon black as starting materials. Custom composition, structure, and function are achieved through combinations of carbon materials, cross-linkers, and additives along with variations in process parameters. Carbon materials can be assembled into spheres with a mean diameter of units to hundreds of μm with relatively tight size distribution (<25% RSD). Pore structure and size (tens to hundreds of angstrom) can be modulated by incorporating porogen/coporogen dilutants during synthesis. The microbeads have excellent mechanical stability with an elastic modulus of hundreds of MPa. They can sustain high dynamic fluid flow pressures of up to 9000 psi. This work lays the foundation for synthesizing novel tailorable and customizable carbon microbeads. It opens avenues for applying these novel materials for composite and additive manufacturing, energy, life science, and biomedical applications.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Bayesian Poroelastic Aquifer Characterization From InSAR Surface Deformation Data. Part I: Maximum A Posteriori Estimate

Characterizing the properties of groundwater aquifers is essential for predicting aquifer response and managing groundwater resources. In this work, we develop a high-dimensional scalable Bayesian inversion framework governed by a three-dimensional quasi-static linear poroelastic model to characterize lateral permeability variations in groundwater aquifers. In this work, we determine the maximum a posteriori (MAP) point of the posterior permeability distribution from centimeter-level surface deformation measurements obtained from Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR). The scalability of our method to high parameter dimension is achieved through the use of adjoint-based derivatives, inexact Newton methods to determine the MAP point, and a Mat´ern class sparse prior precision operator. Together, these guarantee that the MAP point is found at a cost, measured in number of forward/adjoint poroelasticity solves, that is independent of the parameter dimension. We apply our methodology to a test case for a municipal well in Mesquite, Nevada, in which InSAR and GPS surface deformation data are available. We solve problems with up to 320,824 state variable degrees of freedom (DOFs) and 16,896 parameter DOFs. A consistent treatment of noise level is employed so that the aquifer characterization result does not depend on the pixel spacing of surface deformation data. Our results show that the use of InSAR data significantly improves characterization of lateral aquifer heterogeneity, and the InSAR-based aquifer characterization recovers complex lateral displacement trends observed by independent daily GPS measurements.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Asymmetries in ionization of atomic superposition states by ultrashort laser pulses

Abstract Progress in ultrafast science allows for probing quantum superposition states with ultrashort laser pulses in the new regime where several linear and nonlinear ionization pathways compete. Interferences of pathways can be observed in the photoelectron angular distribution and in the past they have been analyzed for atoms and molecules in a single quantum state via anisotropy and asymmetry parameters. Those conventional parameters, however, do not provide comprehensive tools for probing superposition states in the emerging research area of bright and ultrashort light sources, such as free-electron lasers and high-order harmonic generation. We propose a new set of generalized asymmetry parameters which are sensitive to interference effects in the photoionization and the interplay of competing pathways as the laser pulse duration is shortened and the laser intensity is increased. The relevance of the parameters is demonstrated using results of state-of-the-art numerical solutions of the time-dependent Schrödinger equation for ionization of helium atom and neon atom.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

Characterization of a mock up nuclear waste package using energy resolved MeV neutron analysis

Reliable radiographic methods for characterizing nuclear waste packages non-destructively (without the need to open containers) have the potential to significantly contribute to safe handling and future disposal options, particularly for legacy waste of unknown content. Due to required shielding of waste containers and the need to characterize materials consisting of light elements, X-ray methods are not suitable. Here, energy-resolved MeV neutron radiography is demonstrated as a first-of-its-kind application for non-destructive and remote examination of mock up nuclear waste packages from a safe position using time-of-flight techniques enabled by a novel event-mode imaging detector system. Energy-resolved neutron transmission spectra were measured spatially, permitting the detection of analogue materials to actual nuclear waste such as water, melamine, and ion exchange resin within a 2.54 cm wall thickness steel pipe. The results demonstrate the capability to locate the materials through this wall thickness by radiography and tomographic reconstruction, revealing detailed 3D distributions and structural anomalies. The method effectively detects residual water in ion exchange resin, highlighting its sensitivity to moisture content, a crucial parameter for nuclear waste characterization. Monte Carlo simulations are in agreement with the experimental findings, providing a pathway to simulate waste forms more difficult to tackle experimentally. This work paves the way to apply sub-nanosecond intense MeV neutron sources, such as laser-driven neutron sources under development, to nuclear waste characterization.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Fluid and hybrid simulations of the ionization instabilities in Hall thruster

Low-frequency axial oscillations in the range of 5–50 kHz stand out as a pervasive feature observed in many types of Hall thrusters. While it is widely recognized that the ionization effects play the central role in this mode, as manifested via the large-scale oscillations of neutral and plasma density, the exact mechanism(s) of the instabilities remain unclear. To gain further insight into the physics of the breathing mode and evaluate the role of kinetic effects, a one-dimensional time-dependent full nonlinear low-frequency model describing neutral atoms, ions, and electrons is developed in full fluid formulation and compared to the hybrid model in which the ions and neutrals are kinetic. Both models are quasi-neutral and share the same electron fluid equations that include the electron diffusion, mobility across the magnetic field, and the electron energy evolution. The ionization models are also similar in both approaches. Further, the predictions of fluid and hybrid simulations are compared for different test cases. Two main regimes are identified in both models: one with pure low-frequency behavior and the other one, where the low-frequency oscillations coexist with high-frequency oscillations in the range of 100–200 kHz, with the characteristic time scale of the ion channel fly-by time, 100–200 kHz. The other test case demonstrates the effect of a finite temperature of injected neutral atoms, which has a substantial suppression effect on the oscillation amplitude.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗