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Technical Geothermal Roadmap for Indonesia

The technical geothermal roadmapping exercise described by this report is part of the NZW Collaborative Work Program with the Government of Indonesia. Indonesia currently has the second largest installed geothermal power generation capacity in the world and has abundant undeveloped resources that allow for continued expansion of its geothermal resource development, which can serve to contribute to the country’s goal of achieving net zero emissions for power generation by 2060. The DOE GeoVision study (2019) highlighted the importance of technical improvements as the key for accelerating the development of geothermal resources in the United States by reducing the costs and risks to make geothermal more competitive, and this also applies to Indonesia. The main objective of the roadmap is to identify and discuss key technical challenges and discuss how implementation of geothermal technology advances could reduce the risks, costs, and time associated with geothermal exploration and development activities and expand the potential resource base to include unconventional resource types, thus accelerating geothermal deployment in Indonesia.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Land of Opportunity: Potential for Renewable Energy on Federal Lands

Renewable energy (RE) in the United States has historically been deployed primarily on private lands, but the growing interest in RE development, generally across the country and specifically on federal lands, raises questions about the potential for RE on public lands. This study seeks to estimate RE technical potential on federal lands and project the amount of RE to be developed on federal lands under decarbonization scenarios for the contiguous United States. The study applied a combination of high-resolution geospatial analysis and power sector modeling and relied on multiple partner federal agencies and land administrators from the Bureau of Land Management, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, the U.S. Forest Service, the U.S. Department of Defense, and the U.S. Department of Energy. In our reference siting access case, we estimate 44 million acres of federal land across the contiguous United States is potentially suitable for UPV development, which corresponds to a capacity technical potential of 5,750 gigawatts (GW) (Figure ES-1). Federal land area available for wind development is similar to UPV but wind’s generating capacity technical potential is lower (875 GW). The technical potential is estimated for two geothermal technologies, hydrothermal and enhanced geothermal systems (EGS), both of which have a smaller amount of federal land available for development (12 and 27 million acres, respectively). However, in terms of capacity, the technical potential for EGS (975 GW) is approximately equal to wind’s technical potential and there is an estimated 130 GW of hydrothermal potential. We also developed cases with more-limited land available for UPV and wind (for federal and non-federal lands) resulting in 96% reduction of wind capacity potential and 70% reduction for UPV. In a case with additional constraints applied to non-federal lands only (Limited Private), the overall (federal and non-federal) technical potential declines but the share of that technical potential on federal lands is higher than in the other siting cases. The technical potential is the maximum amount that could be developed, but only a small fraction would be developed or needed in the future. Across seven scenarios that achieve 100% carbon-free electricity by 2035, we estimate 26 GW to 270 GW of RE capacity could be deployed on federal lands by 2035. The three central scenarios have 51–84 GW of RE deployed by 2035 and requiring about 500,000 to 1,000,000 acres of total land area. Direct land consumption is less than total land use required, thus enabling co-use opportunities. The large technical potential estimates and the increasing deployment projections from the collection of scenarios show the opportunities for RE development on federal lands. Capturing these opportunities-while minimizing conflicts with other land uses, federal department or agency missions, and public interest, and simultaneously maximizing the economic, grid, and social value of the projects-would require collaborative planning among federal land administrators, grid planners, project developers, the public, and other stakeholders.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Findings from the NETL Well Integrity Workshop: Insights for multiple subsurface energy operations

Wells are a core aspect of subsurface energy infrastructure. Ensuring the resilience of that infrastructure relies on the integrity of wells as engineered pathways that safely extract, inject, and store fluids in the subsurface. To identify areas where focused research can yield new insights to improve integrity and extend the operational life of wells, the United States (US) Department of Energys (DOE) National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) organized and hosted a workshop on well integrity research needs in May and June of 2021. The three-day workshop consisted of six technical sessions and 18 presentations from international well integrity experts on topics of geologic storage of carbon dioxide, natural gas, and hydrogen, as well as hydrocarbon and geothermal energy production. There were over 350 registrants from more than 10 countries, 4 major oil & gas companies, 14 US states, 8 US DOE National Laboratories, US Departments of Interior, Transportation, and Energy, and regulators from eight of ten US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) regions and US EPA headquarters. Through presentations, moderated discussions, and an attendee survey several important areas for future research were identified. In this presentation, we highlight the findings of the NETL well integrity workshop and discuss future well integrity research needs.

carbon capture utilization and storage (CCUS)↗

Southwest Regional Partnership on Carbon Sequestration: Phase III (Final Scientific/Technical Report)

The Southwest Regional Partnership on Carbon Sequestration (SWP) is one of 7 regional partnerships formed in 2003 under the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnerships (RCSPs) initiative. The overall purpose of the initiative was to help determine and implement the technology, infrastructure, and regulations most appropriate to promote carbon storage in different regions of the country. Covering Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Utah, and parts of Texas, Wyoming, and Kansas, the SWP evaluated regional carbon storage and utilization potential and focused on technologies and sites that could complement the region’s strong position in energy production. The project progressed through three phases: • Phase I (2003–2005): Characterized regional geologic formations and CO 2 sources, assessed sequestration potential, and identified pilot test sites. • Phase II (2005–2013): Conducted small-scale field tests to validate sequestration methods, including geologic and terrestrial projects. • Phase III (2008–2022): Demonstrated large-scale CO 2 injection at a commercial oil field to test monitoring, verification, and long-term storage strategies. This report covers Phase III. The final project site, the Farnsworth Unit (FWU) in Texas, provided real-world testing of reservoir characterization, monitoring, and risk evaluation tools and processes that could be used in any commercial scale carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) project. Extensive data collection and analysis helped refine best practices for reservoir characterization, injection monitoring, and storage verification. The SWP contributed to national databases, DOE best practice manuals, and regional geological assessments to support future sequestration efforts. Key lessons learned include the importance of robust data management, strategic site selection, regulatory navigation, and effective industry collaboration. The project’s findings will inform ongoing and future carbon storage initiatives. Task 1 (Regional Characterization) • The SWP continued to participate in national outreach efforts and NATCARB. • The SWP evaluated multiple potential sites before selecting the FWU as the primary field test location. Task 2 (Public Outreach and Education) • The SWP contributed to national databases, DOE best practice manuals, and regional geological assessments to support future sequestration efforts. Task 3 (Permitting and Regulatory Compliance) • The SWP ensured compliance with federal and state regulations, including National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) requirements. • The SWP obtained all necessary permits for drilling, injection, and monitoring activities. Task 4 (Site Characterization and Planning) • The SWP developed work plans for four key activities: characterization, simulation, monitoring and verification, and risk evaluation. • The SWP collected and synthesized legacy data from multiple sources to build initial static geological models and dynamic reservoir models demonstrating project feasibility. • The SWP conducted an initial risk evaluation and developed mitigation plans. Task 5 (Field Operations and Data Collection) • The SWP drilled, logged, and cored three characterization wells to gather critical subsurface data. • The SWP conducted multiple geophysical surveys, including 3D seismic, crosswell seismic, and vertical seismic profiling, to improve reservoir characterization. Task 6 (Monitoring and Verification) • The SWP performed extensive geological characterization using data from characterization wells and seismic surveys. • The SWP established a surface monitoring network to track CO 2 flux in soil gas, groundwater chemistry, and near-surface atmospheric CO 2 levels. • The SWP built and refined reservoir models to study the effects of relative permeability on simulation behavior and improve calibration with experimental data. Task 7 (Risk Assessment and Model Refinement) • The SWP conducted multiple studies to evaluate reservoir integrity, predict CO 2 plume behavior and improve predictive modeling capabilities. • The SWP refined geological models and used them to enhance the accuracy of simulation models. • The SWP continued quantitative risk assessment of top-ranked risks and strengthened the link between qualitative and quantitative risk methodologies.

02 PETROLEUM↗

The Coal Industry Perspective [Slides]

This report provides an overview of the global coal industry, with additional focus on the United States. Some of the areas it covers include coal prices, consumption, production, stockpiles, imports, exports, reserves, and productivity measures. It provides juxtapositions between the United States and other countries' coal industries. In addition to providing a current snapshot of the U.S. coal industry, this work portrays both historical and projected aspects of the coal industry.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Low-cost buffer storage for solar industrial steam applications

Motivation and importance: Many industrial process heat consumers operate throughout the day, and deep decarbonization with solar energy requires thermal energy storage. Thermal energy storage provides an additional operational benefit of firm delivery of steam – essential to reducing the risk of costly production interruptions. The group of process heat consumers that use steam for biofuels production for the California transportation fuels market is incentivized through the Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) to reduce their carbon intensity through the use of solar steam. Examples include ethanol and dimethyl ether production. The production of these and other fuels involves distillation driven by steam reboilers with steam pressures in the range 100-280 psig. These pressures can be delivered from the type of thermal energy storage that has been the focus of this project – a steam accumulator Sunvapor, Inc. (SVI) calls a “Bullet Steam Accumulator” or “BSA TM ”. Our project adds to the understanding of the design and integration of steam accumulators charged by solar thermal energy in a biofuels production facility, and similar facilities that consume process steam. The fuel application requires a demanding level of Process Safety Management not found in other steam applications. The type of steam accumulator SVI engineered and built integrates steam generation and storage in one vessel to reduce cost. Achieving a first of a kind permit to operate such a first device has also added to the understanding of the industrial application of such systems. Goals: The overall goal of the project has been to demonstrate the advantages that a “Bullet Steam Accumulator” (BSA™) can provide to solar steam integration with a manufacturing process. The industrial host has already been convinced of the potential of the available solar steam to lower than carbon intensity score. They have been interviewed for a number of publications such as that tout the advantages SVI’s system brings to their operations. Accomplishments: At the end of 2023 Sunvapor placed in service the country’s first industrial solar boiler with thermal energy storage. At the same time, this placement in service represents the first pilot commercial system to decarbonize biofuels production through the use of solar thermal energy. While the full technical effectiveness will be shown as soon as the customer’s plant is able to consume the available steam, the economic feasibility was indicated early in the project when the combination of costs and steam pricing required to meet investor expectations was determined. The project represents a reference pilot from which a full-scale commercial system may be expanded. This pilot is a necessary first step in providing the full potential benefits to the public, including decarbonization of transportation fuels. The decarbonization of the separation steps in fuels production may be the most cost-effective and nearest term solar fuel. Co-benefits include a reduction of air pollutants such as NOx and particulate matter, and job creation for the construction, operation and maintenance of industrial solar facilities.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Advances in the PIP-II Project and the Indian Institutions & Fermilab Collaboration

The Proton Improvement Plan – II (PIP-II) project at Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory (Fermilab) is the first particle accelerator project in the USA to receive significant in-kind contributions from international partners. Partnering countries include the USA, India, Italy, the United Kingdom, France, and Poland. When completed, PIP-II will accelerate protons to 800 MeV, and power the world’s most intense neutrino beam for the Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE). Technological advancements for PIP-II across the entire collaboration have significantly matured, with the project currently in the construction phase. The Indian Institutions & Fermilab Collaboration (IIFC) for PIP-II has a 14+ years history. The IIFC R&D phase concluded with the validation of various prototypes and defined the beginning of the construction phase. This presentation highlights the advances of the synergistic PIP-II collaboration. Work supported, in part, by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science, Office of High Energy Physics, under U.S. DOE Contract No. 89243024CSC000002.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

UNrealized Critical Lanthanide Extraction from Sea Algae Mining (UNCLE SAM)

The UNCLE-SAM project, under the Biotechnologies to Ensure a Robust Supply of Critical Materials for Clean Energy program, examined the biomining applications of seaweeds for sustainable, domestic production of critical mineral feedstocks. The ocean is a vast reserve of mineralogical wealth including rare earth elements (REEs) and platinum group metal (PGMs). These elements, categorized as “critical minerals”, are used in telecommunication devices, lasers, LED lighting, turbine generators, electric car motors, jet engine alloys, and many other applications. These critical elements are increasingly vital to a thriving, efficient and sustainable society. However, only a few countries in the global market currently produce and export REEs, leading to potential geopolitical supply disruptions. Marine macroalgae, often referred to as seaweeds, bioconcentrate critical minerals from seawater, including REEs and PGMs. Marine algae cultivation can generate a significant amount of biomass with minimal freshwater, fertilizer, and land requirements. In summary, the UNCLE-SAM project successfully evaluated the technological feasibility for marine macroalgal cultivation as a feedstock for critical minerals, explored the biological capacity of different seaweeds to provide economically relevant domestic mineral production, assessed processing techniques for thermal co-conversion of seaweeds into renewable fuel and mineral feedstocks, and executed techno-economic and lifecycle assessments for identifying the most critical gaps in our current understanding to move the technology into commercially relevant deployment. Further development of this technology could transform the bioproduct and REE mining industries and catalyze the development of a more sustainable future.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

An Exploratory Data Mining Investigation for Constructing a Publicly Sourced Dataset of Foreign Hypersonic Tests

This document details a data mining exercise that resulted in an exploratory dataset of publicly reported foreign (non-US) hypersonic vehicle test events. Using a combination of targeted English language searches and country-specific queries, the study aggregates information from digital news media, official press releases, and social media posts. The resulting list of events captures the publicly available accounts of foreign hypersonic tests, although it does not represent an exhaustive record. Limitations such as inconsistent reporting, translation challenges, and the inherently provisional nature of open-source data are acknowledged. This dataset serves as an initial reference point for further inquiries into high-speed atmospheric phenomena and may facilitate future efforts to correlate these events with geophysical measurements.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Net Zero World COP28 Outcomes Report – Indonesia

This report describes Net Zero World Initiative activities initiated with Indonesia in 2023. The Net Zero World Initiative is a collaborative effort of eight countries, nine U.S. government agencies, 10 U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) national laboratories, and partnering philanthropies and nongovernmental organizations. Its goal is to elevate and enact climate ambition pledges and accelerate the transition to net-zero, resilient, and inclusive energy systems globally. The Net Zero World team, the Government of Indonesia’s Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (MEMR), and other stakeholders jointly identified and are advancing action in the four priority focus areas -- Energy Infrastructure Analysis, Island Energy Transition, Building Decarbonization, and Sustainable Transport.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Construction Methodology Transformation for the Benefit of Workforce Development

Construction is a key economic engine driving both national and global economies. While manual, onsite construction methods dominate the U.S. construction industry, a major shift towards offsite methods has been underway due to its efficiency, speed, and potential cost savings. The workforce necessary for offsite construction growth does not exist in its current form because of the focus on onsite methodologies and the lack of exposure to offsite building methods at all levels of a student’s learning journey. The growth of the U.S. construction industry and competitiveness in an increasingly global construction market over the coming decades can only be supported by a dramatic increase in the use of offsite methods, which requires ramping up workforce training for certain skillsets. The goal of Construction Methodology Transformation for the Benefit of Workforce Development was to understand the opportunities and barriers in both education and industry and to identify best practices for offering curriculum and training to educators, industry, and students that would support skills needed for careers in offsite construction. Our team proposed combining three offsite construction workforce development needs: content development, exposure and training, and job placement - under a single Platform model that would increase experience and career opportunities for students and help match them with potential industry members. Through our proposed solution we expected to see: developed offsite curriculum being utilized by educators and students; an increase in the identification of construction technology and offsite construction methods; an average increase in knowledge gain of at least 25% after participation in pilots; better equipped candidates who are prepared for jobs in offsite construction; and a beta workforce development platform that helps build more pathways for students looking for careers in offsite construction. The two pilots included almost 250 students and resulted in an average knowledge gain of 37 percent. Our research has identified areas of opportunity, for both education and industry to make collaborative training programs more efficient and successful. The chosen techniques for this program are extremely effective when both the school and factory have solid processes and cultures in place to accept students into training programs. This project serves as an important stepping stone to industrywide collaboration to move workforce development for offsite construction forward across the country. With continued collaboration programs like this can provide much needed early exposure and training in offsite construction and we can begin to fill important positions for the future of construction.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

An assessment of the global cooling supply chain and implications for critical minerals

The global room air conditioner (AC) industry has undergone rapid growth, and the U.S. and India now face new supply chain risks due to China’s dominant role in manufacturing and driving demand. As India’s room AC market and related electricity consumption increases with continued economic development, it faces dual challenges of supply chain vulnerabilities and power grid blackouts from higher peak loads. To mitigate supply chain vulnerabilities for high-efficiency cooling equipment and critical mineral inputs to AC components, there is an increasing need to diversify the supply chain and address energy security and peak load risks to both the U.S. and India. This report assesses the potential for diversifying supply chains and scaling up manufacturing of highly efficient cooling equipment technologies and related critical mineral inputs in the U.S. and India. Successful cooperation on these technologies will enable the U.S., India, and their Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) partners to diversify AC supply chains while meeting India’s large and growing demand for efficient cooling. In the similarly concentrated supply chain for critical minerals, the U.S. and India can work with Japan and Australia to leverage each country’s strengths in diversifying mining, processing, and refining while pursuing alternatives to materials with high supply chain risks and supporting increased recycling and circular economy approaches.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Support for U.S. Participants at the 18 th International Congress on Catalysis

The 18 th International Congress on Catalysis (ICC) was held Lyon, France on July 14-19, 2024. It provided a premier technical gathering in surface and organometallic catalysis, industrial homogeneous and heterogeneous catalysis, electrocatalysis, photocatalysis, and catalysis in condensed media. This meeting brough together participants from academia, industry, and national laboratories. The organization that overseed this meeting was the Council of the International Congress on Catalysis. This international committee has over 27 signature countries. The United States is represented in the Council of the International Congress on Catalysis through two permanent representatives. These representatives are elected by the Board of Directors of the North American Catalysis Society (NACS), an organization which coordinates and overseas the activities of 12 largely autonomous clubs within the United States, Canada, and Mexico. The critical importance of catalysis is reflected by the fact that 25-30% of all manufactured goods in the United States involve at least one catalytic step. Because advances in a large number of catalytic processes, which are crucial to U.S. interests, were presented at this meeting, it was important to ensure participation from both the U.S. academic and the industrial sectors.

02 PETROLEUM↗

2024 IUFRO Tree Biotechnology Conference (Aug 4-8, 2024)

The 2024 IUFRO Tree Biotechnology Conference is the biennial meeting on genomics, molecular biology, and biotechnology of forest trees, associated with the IUFRO Working Party 2.04.06. This year's meeting was held in Annapolis, MD, USA from August 4th to 8th and was hosted by Yiping Qi (University of Maryland), Edward Eisenstein (University of Maryland), Gary Coleman (University of Maryland), and Heather Coleman (Syracuse University). The conference covered seven topics over the course of five days: 1) Biological and ecological insights from OMICS, 2) Advancing technologies for targeted trait manipulation and acceptability to diverse tree species, 3) Genes, development, and physiology, 4) Translating genomics and biotechnology to practice, 5) Trees in a changing world, 6) Genetic and phenotypic diversity for breeding and genomic selection, and 7) Biotechnology for biomaterials and bioeconomy. In addition to the sessions, there were two plenary sessions, provided by John Ralph (University of Wisconsin) and Tanja Pyrhäjärvi (University of Helsinki). The meeting celebrated the second awardees of the newly created IUFRO WG 2.04.06 Award: Excellence in Forest Molecular Biology and Genomics, which was presented to Chung-Jui (C.J.) Tsai (University of Georgia). Greg Goralogia (Oregon State University) was the recipient of the associated Early Career Award. The scientific presentations at the conference highlighted cutting-edge advancements in many facets of forest biotechnology research, including applications of genomic selection in forest genetics and breeding, the use of genetic editing, tree physiology, stress response, molecular breeding, wood development, "omics" technologies, and the social and economic impacts of genetically modified (GM) trees. Scientific take homes from the meeting include the power of NMR to dissect the composition of lignin, the genomic diversity of forest trees that has enormous potential for tree improvement and the integration of systems biology with climate and geographical data. The conference attracted a mix of students (25), postdoctoral fellows (32), and scientists from academia (66) and industry (18). In all, the conference was attended by 141 registered participants, representing 20 countries that participated in 23 invited lectures (including 6 'early-career' keynotes), 27 voluntary talks and 61 poster presentations. Support for the conference was drawn from a wide variety of Academia, Industry, and Government sources, and included financial support from several tree improvement companies. Overall, the conference was a great success, providing an exceptional mix of science and social activities in a relaxed and collegial atmosphere. More information about the meeting can be found at treebiotech.org. The next meeting will be held in Stellenbosch, South Africa, in 2026, hosted jointly by Zander Myburg, Dave Drew (University of Stellenbosch,) and Sanushka Naidoo (University of Pretoria, FABI).

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Polar Bear™ – Innovative Capture of Storage Tank Vapors

Polar Bear™ is a patented technology developed by the Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC) to capture storage tank vapors and eliminate methane emissions from upstream oil- and gas-producing facilities. Sparked by early commercial investment, the EERC licensed the technology and extended the intellectual property to storage tanks. Polar Bear™ is uniquely engineered and adapted to individual lower-producing facilities where there is otherwise no economic alternative for capturing tank vapors. A high number of small producing oil and gas wells are distributed across the country. The aggregate contributes to a significant volume of emissions. Because of the lack of economy of scale, gas volumes from these facilities are typically not recovered and contribute to methane emissions. Polar Bear™ provides a fit-for-purpose compression solution that addresses cost by reducing complexity with respect to conventional vapor recovery units and eliminating oil changes. Unique to Polar Bear™ is the capability to separate oxygenated gas from storage tank vapors. Storage tanks are designed to “breathe,” allowing gas to enter and escape during internal level and temperature changes. This infiltration of air into the tank headspace imparts undesirable oxygen content with respect to pipeline gathering. Polar Bear™ separates the vapor stream, allowing oxygen-rich gas to be used as fuel on-site while recovering the liquids-rich portion of the gas where oxygen content is minimized. A prototype system was tested to verify process models, evaluate operational performance, and advance the technology readiness level from 5 to 6. Results provide a good match between experimental measurements and process models, indicating the models are useful for future scale-up and field design. Various mixtures of nitrogen and liquefied petroleum gas were tested to understand the mass balance of nitrogen and how it relates to the potential control of oxygen content. Findings indicate that less than 2000 ppm of oxygen is likely to remain in the liquid portion of the gas in field applications. The research and development prepare the technology for field implementation to eliminate routine and fugitive methane emissions from storage tanks.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Addressing Investment Barriers by Improving Documentation of Sustainable Biomass Resources (Workshop Report)

On May 8, 2025, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), in collaboration with IEA Bioenergy Task 43 and the Biofuture Platform, convened an international workshop in Vancouver, Canada to improve the Global Biomass Resource Assessment. This effort addresses investment barriers in the global bioeconomy by improving the transparency, consistency, and usability of biomass supply data. The workshop gathered 38 participants from 11 countries, representing government agencies, academia, and industry. Participants reviewed the status of the biomass dataset, tested the data-sharing platform, and provided direct input on priorities for improvement.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Impact of Siting Ordinances on Land Availability for Wind and Solar Development

In the United States, many siting regulations for wind and solar developments are created at the county or township level. Here we survey local zoning ordinances across the contiguous United States to understand the types and frequency of ordinances that might impact wind and solar development. We identify over 1,800 ordinances for wind and more than 800 ordinances for solar in 2022. To understand the impact of ordinances on anticipated land availability, we use spatial modelling on the setbacks specified in the ordinances. Extrapolating the setbacks throughout the country can reduce wind and solar resources by up to 87% and 38%, respectively, depending on the size of the setbacks applied. These results indicate the importance of capturing setback ordinances in resources assessments so as to not overstate resource potential.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

PRIME - A Software Toolkit for the Characterization of Partially Observed Epidemics in a Bayesian Framework

PRIME is a modeling framework designed for the “real-time’” characterization and forecasting of partially observed epidemics. Characterization is the estimation of infection spread parameters using daily counts of symptomatic patients. The method is designed to help guide medical resource allocation in the early epoch of the outbreak. The estimation problem is posed as one of Bayesian inference and solved using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo technique. The framework can accommodate multiple epidemic waves and can help identify different disease dynamics at the regional, state, and country levels. We include examples using publicly available COVID-19 data.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗