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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,315 records · Page 73
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Split HPWHs as an Efficient Solution for Multifamily Buildings with In-Unit Water Heaters: Preprint

A quarter of all housing units in the country are found in multifamily buildings but few efficiency innovations have been made to improve electric water heating systems in this building type. Domestic hot water in multifamily buildings can either be provided by a large central water heater or smaller in-unit water heaters. Integrated heat pump water heaters that are installed in single family homes are often a poor fit for individual multifamily units since the water heaters are often located in small internal closets. This confined space can limit the air flow to the heat pump and the cold exhaust air can cause discomfort and reduced efficiency. Split CO2 HPWHs separate the tank from the heat pump, which allows for installation location flexibility. Further, CO2 heat pumps can operate under colder ambient conditions, making them a better fit for multifamily units across a wide range of climate regions. As part of a larger project to characterize split HPWH performance, we evaluated the feasibility of installing an additional, parallel tank that could provide hot water to a second housing unit using a single CO2 heat pump. This approach would reduce the first costs of these more expensive units. Based on the high draw volume that we imposed on both tanks, the same heat pump may be able to support more tanks, depending on hot water usage. This paper will describe the split CO2 HPWH technology, how the two-tank system was controlled, and results from our laboratory evaluation.

CO2 HPWH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Future Projection of Tropical Upper-Tropospheric Troughs and Implications for Tropical Cyclone Activity

Summertime tropical upper-tropospheric troughs (TUTTs) provide a unified framework to better understand how extratropical and tropical forcings jointly modulate basin-scale tropical cyclone (TC) activity. In this study, we examine future changes in TUTTs and their implications for TC activity. Multimodel ensemble-mean projections from 45 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) models suggest a contraction of the Pacific TUTT and an expansion of the Atlantic TUTT as the climate warms. Consistently, future changes in environment-based TC indices indicate that the large-scale conditions will become more favorable for TC genesis and intensification over the central North Pacific but less favorable over the tropical North Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico. Utilizing a TC-permitting large-ensemble dataset [i.e., the Database for Policy Decision-Making for Future Climate Change (d4PDF)] that adequately captures the observed interannual TUTT–TC relationships, we further confirm the impacts of projected TUTT changes on the TC activity in a warmer climate. In contrast, the TUTT–TC relationship is poorly represented in most CMIP6 High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) models; such deficiencies call for caution when assessing future TC risk based on explicitly tracked TCs in these models. Additionally, CMIP6 projections show large intermodel spread in TUTT changes, implying uncertainty in projected TC activity, especially over the central-to-eastern Pacific and the North Atlantic. This intermodel spread is associated with interhemispheric sea surface temperature warming asymmetry, which leads to a meridional shift of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and the simultaneous weakening or strengthening of TUTTs in the North Pacific and North Atlantic. The potential contributions of anthropogenic aerosol forcing and oceanic circulation to this interhemispheric warming asymmetry are briefly examined.

Climate Change↗
NASA NTRS2007

Revisiting Training and Verification Process Implementation for Risk Reduction on New Missions at NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory

In 2003 we proposed an effort to develop a core program of standardized training and verification practices and standards against which the implementation of these practices could be measured. The purpose was to provide another means of risk reduction for deep space missions to preclude the likelihood of a repeat of the tragedies of the 1998 Mars missions. We identified six areas where the application of standards and standardization would benefit the overall readiness process for flight projects at JPL. These are Individual Training, Team Training, Interface and Procedure Development, Personnel Certification, Interface and procedure Verification, and Operations Readiness Testing. In this paper we will discuss the progress that has been made in the tasks of developing the proposed infrastructure in each of these areas. Specifically we will address the Position Training and Certification Standards that are now available for each operational position found on our Flight Operations Teams (FOT). We will also discuss the MGSS Baseline Flight Operations Team Training Plan which can be tailored for each new flight project at JPL. As these tasks have been progressing, the climate and emphasis for Training and for V and V at JPL has changed, and we have learned about the expansion, growth, and limitations in the roles of traditional positions at JPL such as the Project's Training Engineer, V and V Engineer, and Operations Engineer. The need to keep a tight rein on budgets has led to a merging and/or reduction in these positions which pose challenges to individual capacities and capabilities. We examine the evolution of these processes and the roles involved while taking a look at the impact or potential impact of our proposed training related infrastructure tasks. As we conclude our examination of the changes taking place for new flight projects, we see that the importance of proceeding with our proposed tasks and adapting them to the changing climate remains an important element in reducing the risk in the challenging business of space exploration.

verifications↗
NASA NTRS2001

Numerical Study of the Role of Shallow Convection in Moisture Transport and Climate

The objective of this investigation was to study the role of shallow convection on the regional water cycle of the Mississippi and Little Washita Basins of the Southern Great Plains (SGP) using a 3-D mesoscale model, the PSU/NCAR MM5. The underlying premise of the project was that current modeling of regional-scale climate and moisture cycles over the continents is deficient without adequate treatment of shallow convection. At the beginning of the study, it was hypothesized that an improved treatment of the regional water cycle can be achieved by using a 3-D mesoscale numerical model having high-quality parameterizations for the key physical processes controlling the water cycle. These included a detailed land-surface parameterization (the Parameterization for Land-Atmosphere-Cloud Exchange (PLACE) sub-model of Wetzel and Boone), an advanced boundary-layer parameterization (the 1.5-order turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) predictive scheme of Shafran et al.), and a more complete shallow convection parameterization (the hybrid-closure scheme of Deng et al.) than are available in most current models. PLACE is a product of researchers working at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, MD. The TKE and shallow-convection schemes are the result of model development at Penn State. The long-range goal is to develop an integrated suite of physical sub-models that can be used for regional and perhaps global climate studies of the water budget. Therefore, the work plan focused on integrating, improving, and testing these parameterizations in the MM5 and applying them to study water-cycle processes over the SGP. These schemes have been tested extensively through the course of this study and the latter two have been improved significantly as a consequence.

Seaman, Nelson L.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Historical (1700–2012) Global Multi-Model Estimates of the Fire Emissions from the Fire Modeling Intercomparison Project (FireMIP)

Fire emissions are critical for carbon and nutrient cycles, climate, and air quality. Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) with interactive fire modeling provide important estimates for long-term and large-scale changes of fire emissions. Here we present the first multi-model estimates of global gridded historical fire emissions for 1700-2012, including carbon and 33 species of trace gases and aerosols. The dataset is based on simulations of nine DGVMs with different state-of-the-art global fire models that participated in the Fire Modeling Intercomparison Project (FireMIP), using the same and standardized protocols and forcing data, and the most up-to-date fire emission factor table from field and laboratory studies over various land cover types. We evaluate the simulations of present-day fire emissions by comparing them with satellite-based products. Evaluation results show that most DGVMs simulate present-day global fire emission totals within the range of satellite-based products, and can capture the high emissions over the tropical savannas, low emissions over the arid and sparsely vegetated regions, and the main features of seasonality. However, most of the models fail to simulate the interannual variability, partly due to a lack of modeling peat fires and tropical deforestation fires. Historically, all models show only a weak trend in global fire emissions before ~1850s, consistent with multi-source merged historical reconstructions. The long-term trends among DGVMs are quite different for the 20th century, with some models showing an increase and others a decrease in fire emissions, mainly as a result of the discrepancy in their simulated responses to human population density change and land-use and land-cover change (LULCC). Our study provides a basic dataset for developing regional and global multi-source merged historical reconstructions and merging methods, and analyzing historical changes of fire emissions and their uncertainties as well as their role in the Earth system. It also highlights the importance of accurately modeling the responses of fire emissions to LULCC and population density change in reducing uncertainties in historical reconstructions of fire emissions and providing more reliable future projections.

Li, Fang↗
DOE OSTI2020

Accelerated Climate Model for Energy (ACME): Ocean and Sea-Ice Processes

The primary goal of this project was to understand the role of the ocean and sea-ice components in the evolution of the climate in both a high-resolution fully-coupled 1850 preindustrial control and present day transient climate simulations run using the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), formerly known as the Accelerated Climate Model for Energy (ACME). Two distinct approaches to the initialization of the present day transients were tested: in the first, an ensemble of three transients used atmospheric reanalysis forced 0.1-degree ocean/sea-ice states, while a fourth transient was branched off the preindustrial control. Biases from the control were inherited by its successor transient, in particular, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) at high latitudes were too warm and too much northward meridional heat transport occurred in the North Atlantic Ocean. SSTs in the Northern Hemisphere and Atlantic meridional heat transport increased in the transients initialized from the ocean/sea-ice simulation over a 40-50 year period to largely resemble the transient branched off the control simulation. Excessive absorbed solar radiation (ASR) is considered to be responsible for the SST biases as well as the formation of mode waters in lighter density classes than in reality both in the Southern Ocean and the North Atlantic Ocean subtropical gyre. These mode waters ventilate the thermocline waters to the north of their formation sites explaining the excessive Atlantic meridional heat transport and some of the warming in the high-latitude North Atlantic Ocean after multiple decades.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1998

Coupling Processes between Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate

This is the third semi-annual report for NAS5-97039, covering January through June 1998. The overall objective of this project is to improve the understanding of coupling processes between atmospheric chemistry and climate. Model predictions of the future distributions of trace gases in the atmosphere constitute an important component of the input necessary for quantitative assessments of global change. We will concentrate on the changes in ozone and stratospheric sulfate aerosol, with emphasis on how ozone in the lower stratosphere would respond to natural or anthropogenic changes. The key modeling for this work are the AER 2-dimensional chemistry-transport model, the AER 2-dimensional stratospheric sulfate model, and the AER three-wave interactive model with full chemistry. We will continue developing our three-wave model so that we can help NASA determine the strengths and weaknesses of the next generation assessment models.

Ko, M. K. W.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Projected changes in extreme rainfall and temperature events and possible implications for Cameroon's socio-economic sectors

Extreme events like flooding, droughts and heatwave are among the factors causing huge socio-economic losses to Cameroonians. Investigating the potential response of rainfall and temperature extremes to global warming is therefore critically needed for tailoring and adjusting the country's policies. Recent datasets have been developed for this purpose within the Coordinated Output for Regional Evaluations (CORDEX-CORE) initiative, at ~25 km grid spacing. These regional climate models were used to dynamically downscaled four global climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5), under the optimistic and pessimistic representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 8.5, respectively. These models were employed in this study for characterizing the response of Cameroon's extreme precipitation and temperature events to global warming, using seven indices defined by the Expert Team on Cli mate Change Detection and Indices. Under global warming, the maximum number of consecutive dry (wet) days' is expected to increase (decrease). However, the annual total rainfall amount is expected to increase, mainly due to the intensification of very wet days and daily rainfall intensity. Furthermore, the temperature-based indices reveal an increase (decrease) in the total annual hot (cold) days, and overall, changes intensify with increased radiative forcing. The high-mitigated low-emission pathway RCP2.6 features attenuated changes, and even sometimes adapts to reverse the sign of changes. Designing reliable policies to limit the risks associated with the above changes is required, as their socio-economic consequences are likely to include food insecurity, heat-related illness, population impoverishment, price rises and market instability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2016

The Effect of CO2 Ice Cap Sublimation on Mars Atmosphere

Sublimation of the polar CO2 ice caps on Mars is an ongoing phenomenon that may be contributing to secular climate change on Mars. The transfer of CO2 between the surface and atmosphere via sublimation and deposition may alter atmospheric mass such that net atmospheric mass is increasing despite seasonal variations in CO2 transfer. My study builds on previous studies by Kahre and Haberle that analyze and compare data from the Phoenix and Viking Landers 1 and 2 to determine whether secular climate change is happening on Mars. In this project, I use two years worth of temperature, pressure, and elevation data from the MSL Curiosity rover to create a program that allows for successful comparison of Curiosity pressure data to Viking Lander pressure data so a conclusion can be drawn regarding whether CO2 ice cap sublimation is causing a net increase in atmospheric mass and is thus contributing to secular climate change on Mars.

CO2↗
DOE OSTI2022

Anticipating water distribution service outages from increasing temperatures

With projected temperature increases and extreme events due to climate change for many regions of the world, characterizing the impacts of these emerging hazards on water distribution systems is necessary to identify and prioritize adaptation strategies for ensuring reliability. To aid decision-making, new insights are needed into how water distribution system reliability to climate-driven heat will change, and the proactive maintenance strategies available to combat failures. To this end, we present the model Perses, a framework that joins a water distribution network hydraulic solver with reliability models of physical assets or components to estimate temperature increase-driven failures and resulting service outages in the long term. A theoretical case study is developed using Phoenix, Arizona temperature profiles, a city with extreme temperatures and a rapidly expanding infrastructure. By end-of-century under hotter futures there are projected to be 1%–5% more pump failures, 2%–5% more PVC pipe failures, and 3%–7% more iron pipe failures (RCP 4.5–8.5) than a baseline historical temperature profile. Service outages, which constitute inadequate pressure for domestic and commercial use are projected to increase by 16%–26% above the baseline under maximum temperature conditions. The exceedance of baseline failures, when compounded across a large metro region, reveals potential challenges for budgeting, management, and maintenance. An exploration of the mitigation potential of adaptation strategies shows that expedited repair times are capable of offsetting the additional outages from climate change, but will come with a cost.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Tracking the PACE of household energy usage: Energy usage impacts of projects financed through Property Assessed Clean Energy programs in California

This report examines the household-level energy impacts of residential property assessed clean energy (R-PACE) projects using normalized metered energy consumption methods. Our analysis covers projects that occurred through an R-PACE program between 2009 and 2017 and includes more than 25,000 electricity meters and 15,000 gas meters. We employ a comparison group, drawn from other R-PACE households with similar locational and usage characteristics whose projects were implemented at different times, to control for some non-project and non-weather factors that may impact energy use. We find that projects consisting of energy efficiency technologies save, on average, about 3% of household electricity usage and 3.5% of household gas usage. R-PACE financing, however, can be used to install central heating or air conditioning equipment for the first time. These projects would be expected to increase energy consumption. Since our data do not directly indicate which projects are new installations, we develop a simple algorithm for identifying them. Removing these inferred installation projects yields average savings of about 5% for electricity and 6% for gas for those households that remain in the sample. Given the mild California climate and the results of another study of similar California projects using similar methods, these results are in line with expectations. Solar PV projects yield large reductions in grid electricity use, averaging 69% of household consumption. We estimate that, collectively, all R-PACE projects installed in California through 2019 would generate annual reductions in grid-tied electricity consumption of 506 GWh (mostly due to solar PV) and gas consumption reductions of 2 million therms in a normal weather year. These impacts are equivalent to the electricity consumption of about 74,000 California households (including both efficiency and PV generation) and the gas consumption of about 4700 California households.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
NASA NTRS2015

Perspectives on Climate Effects on Agriculture: The International Efforts of AgMIP in Sub-Saharan Africa

Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is experiencing climate change-related effects that call for integrated regional assessments, yet capacity for these assessments has been low. The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) is advancing research on integrated regional assessments of climate change that include climate, crop, and economic modeling and analysis. Through AgMIP, regional integrated assessments are increasingly gaining momentum in SSA, and multi-institutional regional research teams (RRTs) centered in East, West, and Southern· Africa are generating new information on climate change impacts and adaptation in selected agricultural systems. The research in Africa is organized into four RRTs and a coordination team. Each of the RRTs in SSA is composed of scientists from the Consultative Group of International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) institutions, National Agriculture Research institutes (NARs), and universities consisting of experts in crop and economic modeling, climate, and information technology. Stakeholder involvement to inform specific agricultural systems to be evaluated, key outputs, and the representative agricultural pathways (RAPs), is undertaken at two levels: regional and national, in order to contribute to decision making at these levels. Capacity building for integrated assessment (lA) is a key component that is undertaken continuously through interaction with experts in regional and SSA-wide workshops, and through joint creation of tools. Many students and research affiliates have been identified and entrained as part of capacity building in IA. Bi-monthly updates on scholarly publications in climate change in Africa also serve as a vehicle for knowledge-sharing. With 60 scientists already trained and actively engaged in IA and over 80 getting monthly briefs on the latest information on climate change, a climate-informed community of experts is gradually taking shape in SSA. (See Part 2, Appendices 3-5 in this volume for AgMIP Regional Workshop reports.)

Kihara, Job↗
NASA NTRS2021

Evaluating Observational Constraints on Intermodel Spread in Cloud, Temperature, and Humidity Feedbacks

Uncertainty in climate feedbacks is the primary source of the spread in projected surface temperature responses to anthropogenic forcing. Cloud feedback persistently appears as the main source of disagreement in future projections while the combined lapse-rate plus water vapor (LR+WV) feedback is a smaller (30%), but non-trivial source of uncertainty in climate sensitivity. Here we attempt to observationally constrain the feedbacks in an effort to reduce the irintermodel uncertainties. The observed interannual variation provides a useful constraint on the long-term cloud feedback, as evidenced by the consistency of global-mean values and regional contributions to the intermodal spread on both interannual and long-term timescales. However, interannual variability does not serve to constrain the long-term LR+WV feedback spread, which we find is dominated by the varying tropical relative humidity (RH) response to interhemispheric warming differences under clear-sky conditions and the RH-fixed LR feedback under all-sky conditions

radiative feedbacks↗
DOE OSTI2023

Fog and Froth-based Post Combustion CO 2 Capture in Fossil Fuel Power Plants

The University of Kentucky (UK) project titled “Fog+Froth-Based Post-Combustion CO 2 Capture in Fossil Fuel Power Plant”, DE-FE0031733, was conducted from 5/1/2019 to 12/31/2023 in two Budget Periods (BPs), with BP1 from 5/1/2019 to 1/31/2021 and with BP2 from 2/1/2021 to 12/31/2023. The overall goal is to reduce the CO 2 capture capital and operating cost by reducing the absorber size. Other participants included Industrial Climate Solutions, Inc. (ICSI), ALL4 and NexantECA. All project deliverables, milestones, and success criteria were met. Scaled-up demonstration of the compact absorber is planned and two specific aspects of the project demonstration, the solvent spray and the low absorber bottom packing temperature, have been incorporated into the overall UK CO 2 capture process which is on the road to large scale verification and commercialization.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
NASA NTRS2016

Quantifying PM2.5-Meteorology Sensitivities in a Global Climate Model

Climate change can influence fine particulate matter concentrations (PM2.5) through changes in air pollution meteorology. Knowledge of the extent to which climate change can exacerbate or alleviate air pollution in the future is needed for robust climate and air pollution policy decision-making. To examine the influence of climate on PM2.5, we use the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Coupled Model version 3 (GFDL CM3), a fully-coupled chemistry-climate model, combined with future emissions and concentrations provided by the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). For each of the RCPs, we conduct future simulations in which emissions of aerosols and their precursors are held at 2005 levels while other climate forcing agents evolve in time, such that only climate (and thus meteorology) can influence PM2.5 surface concentrations. We find a small increase in global, annual mean PM2.5 of about 0.21 micro-g/cu m3 (5%) for RCP8.5, a scenario with maximum warming. Changes in global mean PM2.5 are at a maximum in the fall and are mainly controlled by sulfate followed by organic aerosol with minimal influence of black carbon. RCP2.6 is the only scenario that projects a decrease in global PM2.5 with future climate changes, albeit only by -0.06 micro-g/cu m (1.5%) by the end of the 21st century. Regional and local changes in PM2.5 are larger, reaching upwards of 2 micro-g/cu m for polluted (eastern China) and dusty (western Africa) locations on an annually averaged basis in RCP8.5. Using multiple linear regression, we find that future PM2.5 concentrations are most sensitive to local temperature, followed by surface wind and precipitation. PM2.5 concentrations are robustly positively associated with temperature, while negatively related with precipitation and wind speed. Present-day (2006-2015) modeled sensitivities of PM2.5 to meteorological variables are evaluated against observations and found to agree reasonably well with observed sensitivities (within 10e50% over the eastern United States for several variables), although the modeled PM2.5 is less sensitive to precipitation than in the observations due to weaker convective scavenging. We conclude that the hypothesized "climate penalty" of future increases in PM2.5 is relatively minor on a global scale compared to the influence of emissions on PM2.5 concentrations.

PM2.5↗
DOE OSTI2020

Experimental protocol for sea level projections from ISMIP6 stand-alone ice sheet models

Projection of the contribution of ice sheets to sea level change as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) takes the form of simulations from coupled ice sheet–climate models and stand-alone ice sheet models, overseen by the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). This paper describes the experimental setup for process-based sea level change projections to be performed with stand-alone Greenland and Antarctic ice sheet models in the context of ISMIP6. The ISMIP6 protocol relies on a suite of polar atmospheric and oceanic CMIP-based forcing for ice sheet models, in order to explore the uncertainty in projected sea level change due to future emissions scenarios, CMIP models, ice sheet models, and parameterizations for ice–ocean interactions. We describe here the approach taken for defining the suite of ISMIP6 stand-alone ice sheet simulations, document the experimental framework and implementation, and present an overview of the ISMIP6 forcing to be used by participating ice sheet modeling groups.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2021

Elevation Dependent Warming in the Eastern Siberian Arctic

There is evidence for elevation-dependent warming (EDW) in many mountainous regions, including the Alps, Rockies, and Tibetan Plateau, all of which are in mid-latitudes. Most studies finding evidence of EDW indicate that both recent decadal and future projected warming rates are greater at higher elevations. In this study, we examine the roles of Arctic amplification and elevation on future warming rates in winter and summer in eastern Siberia (50-70°N; 80-180°E). This region includes four major river basins that flow into the Arctic Ocean (the Yenisei, Lena, Indigirka, and Kolyma) and intersects with mountain ranges in northern Mongolia and eastern Siberia. We analyse projected 21st century temperature projections using a six-member ensemble of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate System Model (CCSM4) with a radiative forcing of 8.5 W m-2. Projected warming rates in winter for the 21st century are dominated by Arctic amplification, which leads to significantly larger warming rates at higher latitudes, with latitudinal gradients of about 0.16°C per degree latitude. In summer, the latitudinal gradient is near zero (0.02°C per degree of latitude). Within specific latitude bands, we also find EDW. However, unlike most mid-latitude locations where warming rates are greater at higher elevations, we find that future warming rates are smaller at higher elevations for this high-latitude region, particularly during winter, with statistically significant rates varying between -0.70 and -2.46 °C/km for different 5° latitude bands. The decrease in warming rates with elevation in winter at the highest latitudes is primarily attributed to strong inversions and changes in the lapse rate as free-air temperatures warm at slower rates than surface temperatures. In summer, the elevation dependence is much weaker than in winter but still statistically significant and negative in all but the most northern latitude band with values ranging between -0.10 and -0.56 °C/km.

elevation-dependent warming (EDW)↗
DOE OSTI2022

Consistent Timing of Arctic Permafrost Loss Across the CESM1 Large Ensemble

Abstract The Arctic is especially vulnerable to climate change and is warming faster than the global average. Changes in this region pose a heightened threat due to the immense amount of carbon frozen as organic material in the soil. When permafrost thaws, organic material decays and releases as greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, contributing to further warming. A better understanding of the processes that influence permafrost degradation is needed to inform climate adaptation and mitigation planning. This study assesses changes to Arctic permafrost across 35 ensemble member simulations from the Community Earth System Model 1 Large Ensemble Project, under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 21st century scenario. Most Arctic near‐surface permafrost is lost by 2100, but timing varies across regions and with soil depth. Internal climate variability, represented by differences between ensemble members, has a constrained influence on degradation timing due to relative consistency of summer temperature increases and insulation by winter snow cover.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗