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At least 1,297 records · Page 72
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Nonenergy Biomass Carbon Removal and Storage (BiCRS): Assessing Durability of Nongaseous Carbon Products Across Terrestrial Storage Fates

Biomass Carbon Removal and Storage, or BiCRS, pathways use plants or algae that remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere through photosynthesis and store it underground or in long-lived products. While some BiCRS approaches generate an energy product, all BiCRS approaches generate a carbon product. A new subset of BiCRS approaches focus on the storage of these raw or converted carbon products for generation of carbon credits. However, the durability of these approaches is highly variable as carbon products vary widely in their “form” and the conditions of their “fate.” We organize our thinking about carbon products and their durability around these two primary axes. The durability of carbon product “forms” is mediated by chemical recalcitrance and ranges substantially across agricultural residues, municipal solid waste, woody biomass, and nongaseous products of thermochemical conversion (e.g., biochars and bio-oils). Meanwhile, terrestrial storage “fates” vary in the mechanism employed to stall decay, including surface storage, dry storage, shallow anoxic storage, and deep or geologic anoxic storage (or injection). Each mechanism has different implications for suitability with different feedstock forms as well as long-term risks. We present a framework for assessing durability of solid or liquid raw and conversion carbon products under terrestrial storage fates, highlighting knowns, unknowns, and research priorities moving forward.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Theoretical Insights on the Fragmentation of Cellulosic Oligomers to Form Hydroxyacetone and Hydroxyacetaldehyde

The presence of heavy unknown oligomeric sugar products in bio-oil is evidenced in experimental results reported in the literature. In this paper, we study the fragmentation reactions yielding acetol and glycolaldehyde from oligomeric sugars following previous work on dehydration reactions to propose structures of these oligomers. Acetol and glycolaldehyde are primary products of cellulose fast pyrolysis but the fragmentation reaction mechanism of these compounds from oligomers merits further study. The density functional theory (DFT) approach was employed to study this reaction. Results revealed that acetol and glycolaldehyde fragments are favorably removed from the non-reducing end based on their thermodynamic stabilities. Theoretical FTIR and NMR spectra were calculated to aid in understanding the structures of the oligomeric sugars. Also, the thermodynamics and physical properties of these compounds were estimated using the Group Contribution Method (GCM). In conclusion, these properties are essential in the design of processing technologies and the upgrading of products.

10 SYNTHETIC FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Enhancing the Quantification of Critical Elements in WTE and Coal Ash via Alkaline Fusion: Superiority of Lithium Metaborate (LiBO 2 )

Ashes generated from coal combustion, as well as waste incineration, can be a potential source of critical elements necessary for the ongoing transition towards electrification and greener energy technologies. For the quantification of critical elements, traditional methods such as acid digestion are time-intensive and can fail to dissolve critical elements in refractory minerals. One potential solution is to adopt alkaline fusion for faster, total digestion. However, the role of flux choice and the subsequent digestion efficiency (DE) is unknown. Here, we report a systematic investigation on the feasibility of alkaline fusion with Lithium Metaborate (LiBO 2 ) and Lithium Tetraborate (Li 2 B 4 O 7 ) as fluxes for the digestion of two standard reference materials (BCR 176R and SRM 1633c). Our findings suggest that LiBO 2 yields higher DE values than Li 2 B 4 O 7 for several critical REEs and volatiles, such as Pb and Cd. Specifically, for REEs in SRM 1633c, the DE values with LiBO 2 are, on average, ~16 percent higher than those with Li 2 B 4 O 7 . Similarly, for Pb and Cd in BCR 176R, the DE values with LiBO 2 are ~20 percent higher than with Li 2 B 4 O 7 . These results suggest that LiBO 2 is a superior flux for rapid ash digestion.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2020

Microbial Communities Associated with Methylmercury Degradation in Paddy Soils

Bioaccumulation of the neurotoxin methylmercury (MeHg) in rice has raised worldwide concerns because of its risks to human health. Certain microorganisms are able to degrade MeHg in pure cultures, but the roles and diversities of the microbial communities in MeHg degradation in rice paddy soils are unknown. Using a series of microcosms, we investigated MeHg degradation in paddy soils from Hunan, Guizhou, and Hubei provinces, representing three major rice production regions in China, and further characterized one of the soils from the Hunan Province for microbial communities associated with MeHg degradation. Microbial demethylation was observed in all three soils, demonstrated by significantly more MeHg degraded in the unsterilized soils than in the sterilized controls. More demethylation occurred in water-saturated soils than in unsaturated soils, but the addition of molybdate and bromoethanesulfonic acid as the respective inhibitors of sulfate reducing bacteria and methanogens showed insignificant effects on MeHg degradation. However, the addition of Cu enhanced MeHg degradation and the enrichment of Xanthomonadaceae in the unsaturated soil. 16S rRNA Illumina sequencing and metatranscriptomic analyses of the Hunan soil consistently revealed that Catenulisporaceae, Frankiaceae, Mycobacteriaceae, and Thermomonosporaceae were among the most likely microbial taxa in influencing MeHg degradation in the paddy soil, and they were confirmed by combined analyses of the co-occurrence network, random forest modeling, and linear discriminant analysis of the effect size. Furthermore, our results shed additional light onto the roles of microbial communities in MeHg degradation in paddy soils and its subsequent bioaccumulation in rice grains.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Respiratory Vinyl Chloride Reductive Dechlorination to Ethene in TceA-Expressing Dehalococcoides mccartyi

Bioremediation of chlorinated ethenes in anoxic aquifers hinges on organohalide-respiring Dehalococcoidia expressing vinyl chloride (VC) reductive dehalogenase (RDase). The tceA gene encoding the trichloroethene-dechlorinating RDase TceA is frequently detected in contaminated groundwater but not recognized as a biomarker for VC detoxification. We demonstrate that tceA-carrying Dehalococcoides mccartyi (Dhc) strains FL2 and 195 grow with VC as an electron acceptor when sufficient vitamin B 12 (B 12 ) is provided. Strain FL2 cultures that received 50 μg L –1 B 12 completely dechlorinated VC to ethene at rates of 14.80 ± 1.30 μM day –1 and attained 1.64 ± 0.11 × 10 8 cells per μmol of VC consumed. Strain 195 attained similar growth yields of 1.80 ± 1.00 × 10 8 cells per μmol of VC consumed, and both strains could be consecutively transferred with VC as the electron acceptor. Proteomic analysis demonstrated TceA expression in VC-grown strain FL2 cultures. Resequencing of the strain FL2 and strain 195 tceA genes identified non-synonymous substitutions, although their consequences for TceA function are currently unknown. The finding that Dhc strains expressing TceA respire VC can explain ethene formation at chlorinated solvent sites, where quantitative polymerase chain reaction analysis indicates that tceA dominates the RDase gene pool.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Combined Effects of Fe(III)-Bearing Clay Minerals and Organic Ligands on U(VI) Bioreduction and U(IV) Speciation

Reduction of U(VI) to U(IV) drastically reduces its solubility and has been proposed as a method for remediation of uranium contamination. However, much is still unknown about the kinetics, mechanisms, and products of U(VI) bioreduction in complex systems. In this work, U(VI) bioreduction experiments were conducted with Shewanella putrefaciens strain CN32 in the presence of clay minerals and two organic ligands: citrate and EDTA. In reactors with U and Fe(III)-clay minerals, the rate of U(VI) bioreduction was enhanced due to the presence of ligands, likely because soluble Fe 3+ - and Fe 2+ -ligand complexes served as electron shuttles. In the presence of citrate, bioreduced U(IV) formed a soluble U(IV)-citrate complex in experiments with either Fe-rich or Fe-poor clay mineral. In the presence of EDTA, U(IV) occurred as a soluble U(IV)-EDTA complex in Fe-poor montmorillonite experiments. However, U(IV) remained associated with the solid phase in Fe-rich nontronite experiments through the formation of a ternary U(IV)-EDTA-surface complex, as suggested by the EXAFS analysis. Our study indicates that organic ligands and Fe(III)-bearing clays can significantly affect the microbial reduction of U(VI) and the stability of the resulting U(IV) phase.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quantification of Raman-Interfering Polyoxoanions for Process Analysis: Comparison of Different Chemometric Models and a Demonstration on Real Hanford Waste

The Hanford site represents a complicated environmental remediation challenge, remaining from the production of nuclear weapons. Over 100 million gallons of liquid radioactive waste of unknown composition will be chemically processed and vitrified, but the varying chemical composition and highly radioactive nature of the waste preclude the implementation of more developed, offline technologies to determine the composition. The only practical approach to waste treatment will require the significant utilization of real-time, chemometric modeling approaches. Although chemometric approaches have been applied to the analysis of Hanford waste, the models developed were highly tank-specialized, and limited discussion was provided on how models fared with interfering signals. As the tank waste is largely composed of oxoanions, which tend to have interfering Raman spectra, the general question was posed as to what chemometric approach is best suited to accurately quantify analytes in the presence of interfering signals. This was carried out by examining the ability of classical least square (CLS), principal component regression (PCR), partial least square (PLS), and locally weighted regression (LWR) to quantify NO 3 – and CO 3 2– using their bands around 1050 cm –1 . Finally, for all samples, the PLS-based model was found to be the most efficient approach from a model building and application perspective.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Seasonal Fluctuations in Iron Cycling in Thawing Permafrost Peatlands

In permafrost peatlands, up to 20% of total organic carbon (OC) is bound to reactive iron (Fe) minerals in the active layer overlying intact permafrost, potentially protecting OC from microbial degradation and transformation into greenhouse gases (GHG) such as CO 2 and CH 4 . During the summer, shifts in runoff and soil moisture influence redox conditions and therefore the balance of Fe oxidation and reduction. Whether reactive iron minerals could act as a stable sink for carbon or whether they are continuously dissolved and reprecipitated during redox shifts remains unknown. We deployed bags of synthetic ferrihydrite (FH)-coated sand in the active layer along a permafrost thaw gradient in Stordalen mire (Abisko, Sweden) over the summer (June to September) to capture changes in redox conditions and quantify the formation and dissolution of reactive Fe(III) (oxyhydr)oxides. We found that the bags accumulated Fe(III) under constant oxic conditions in areas overlying intact permafrost over the full summer season. In contrast, in fully thawed areas, conditions were continuously anoxic, and by late summer, 50.4 ± 12.8% of the original Fe(III) (oxyhydr)oxides were lost via dissolution. Periodic redox shifts (from 0 to +300 mV) were observed over the summer season in the partially thawed areas. This resulted in the dissolution and loss of 47.2 ± 20.3% of initial Fe(III) (oxyhydr)oxides when conditions are wetter and more reduced, and new formation of Fe(III) minerals (33.7 ± 8.6% gain in comparison to initial Fe) in the late summer under more dry and oxic conditions, which also led to the sequestration of Fe-bound organic carbon. Our data suggest that there is seasonal turnover of iron minerals in partially thawed permafrost peatlands, but that a fraction of the Fe pool remains stable even under continuously anoxic conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Important Roles of Thiols in Methylmercury Uptake and Translocation by Rice Plants

We report the bioaccumulation of the neurotoxin methylmercury (MeHg) in rice is a significant concern due to its potential risk to humans. Thiols have been known to affect MeHg bioavailability in microorganisms, but how thiols influence MeHg accumulation in rice plants remains unknown. Here, we investigated effects of common low-molecular-weight thiols, including cysteine (Cys), glutathione (GSH), and penicillamine (PEN), on MeHg uptake and translocation by rice plants. Results show that rice roots can rapidly take up MeHg, and this process is influenced by the types and concentrations of thiols in the system. The presence of Cys facilitated MeHg uptake by roots and translocation to shoots, while GSH could only promote MeHg uptake, but not translocation, by roots. Conversely, PEN significantly inhibited MeHg uptake and translocation to shoots. Using labeled 13 Cys assays, we also found that MeHg uptake was coupled with Cys accumulation in rice roots. Moreover, analyses of comparative transcriptomics revealed that key genes associated with metallothionein and SULTR transporter families may be involved in MeHg uptake. These findings provide new insights into the uptake and translocation of MeHg in rice plants and suggest potential roles of thiol attributes in affecting MeHg bioavailability and bioaccumulation in rice.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Manganese Oxidation States in Volcanic Soils across Annual Rainfall Gradients

Manganese (Mn) exists as Mn(II), Mn(III), or Mn(IV) in soils, and the Mn oxidation state controls the roles of Mn in numerous environmental processes. However, the variations of Mn oxidation states with climate remain unknown. Here we determined the Mn oxidation states in highly weathered bulk volcanic soils (primary minerals free) across two rainfall gradients covering mean annual precipitation (MAP) of 0.25–5 m in the Hawaiian Islands. With increasing MAP, the soil redox conditions generally shifted from oxic to suboxic and to anoxic despite fluctuating at each site; concurrently, the proportions of Mn(IV) and Mn(II) decreased and increased, respectively. Mn(III) was low at both low and high MAP, but accumulated substantially, up to 80% of total Mn, in soils with prevalent suboxic conditions at intermediate MAP. Mn(III) was likely hosted in Mn(III,IV) and iron(III) oxides or complexed with organic matter, and its distribution among these hosts varied with soil redox potentials and soil pH. Soil redox conditions and rainfall-driven leaching jointly controlled exchangeable Mn(II) in soils, with its concentration peaking at intermediate MAP. The Mn redox chemistry was at disequilibrium, with the oxidation states correlating with long-term average soil redox potentials better than with soil pH. The soil redox conditions likely fluctuated between oxic and anoxic conditions more frequently at intermediate than at low and high MAP, creating biogeochemical hot spots where Mn, Fe, and other redox-sensitive elements may be actively cycled.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Adsorption Mechanisms of Glyphosate on Ferrihydrite: Effects of Al Substitution and Aggregation State

Ferrihydrite is one of the most reactive iron (Fe) (oxyhydr)oxides in soils, but the adsorption mechanisms of glyphosate, the most widely used herbicide, on ferrihydrite remain unknown. Here, we determined the adsorption mechanisms of glyphosate on pristine and Al-substituted ferrihydrites with aggregated and dispersed states using macroscopic adsorption experiments, zeta potential, phosphorus K-edge X-ray absorption near-edge structure spectroscopy, in situ attenuated total reflectance Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy coupled with two-dimensional correlation spectroscopy, and multivariate curve resolution analyses. Aggregation of ferrihydrite decreases the glyphosate adsorption capacity. The partial substitution of Al in ferrihydrite inhibits glyphosate adsorption on aggregated ferrihydrite due to the decrease of external specific surface area, while it promotes glyphosate adsorption on dispersed ferrihydrite, which is ascribed to the increase of surface positive charge. Glyphosate predominately forms protonated and deprotonated, depending on the sorption pH, monodentate-mononuclear complexes (MMH 1 /MMH 0 , 77-90%) on ferrihydrites, besides minor deprotonated bidentate-binuclear complexes (BBH 0 , 23-10%). Both Al incorporation and a low pH favor the formation of the BB complex. The adsorbed glyphosate preferentially forms the MM complex on ferrihydrite and preferentially bonds with the Al-OH sites on Al-substituted ferrihydrite. In conclusion, these new insights are expected to be useful in predicting the environmental fate of glyphosate in ferrihydrite-rich environments.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Relating Molecular Properties to the Persistence of Marine Dissolved Organic Matter with Liquid Chromatography–Ultrahigh-Resolution Mass Spectrometry

Marine dissolved organic matter (DOM) contains a complex mixture of small molecules that eludes rapid biological degradation. Spatial and temporal variations in the abundance of DOM reflect the existence of fractions that are removed from the ocean over different time scales, ranging from seconds to millennia. However, it remains unknown whether the intrinsic chemical properties of these organic components relate to their persistence. Here, we elucidate and compare the molecular compositions of distinct DOM fractions with different lability along a water column in the North Atlantic Gyre. Our analysis utilized ultrahigh-resolution Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry at 21 T coupled to liquid chromatography and a novel data pipeline developed in CoreMS that generates molecular formula assignments and metrics of isomeric complexity. Clustering analysis binned 14 857 distinct molecular components into groups that correspond to the depth distribution of semilabile, semirefractory, and refractory fractions of DOM. The more labile fractions were concentrated near the ocean surface and contained more aliphatic, hydrophobic, and reduced molecules than the refractory fraction, which occurred uniformly throughout the water column. These findings suggest that processes that selectively remove hydrophobic compounds, such as aggregation and particle sorption, contribute to variable removal rates of marine DOM.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Microbial Proxies for Anoxic Microsites Vary with Management and Partially Explain Soil Carbon Concentration

Anoxic microsites are potentially important but unresolved contributors to soil organic carbon (C) storage. How anoxic microsites vary with soil management and the degree to which anoxic microsites contribute to soil C stabilization remain unknown. Sampling from four long-term agricultural experiments in the central United States, we examined how anoxic microsites varied with management (e.g., cultivation, tillage, and manure amendments) and whether anoxic microsites determine soil C concentration in surface (0–15 cm) soils. We used a novel approach to track anaerobe habitat space and, hence, anoxic microsites using DNA copies of anaerobic functional genes over a confined volume of soil. No-till practices inconsistently increased anoxic microsite extent compared to conventionally tilled soils, and within one site organic matter amendments increased anaerobe abundance in no-till soils. Across all long-term tillage trials, uncultivated soils had ~2–4 times more copies of anaerobic functional genes than their cropland counterparts. Finally, anaerobe abundance was positively correlated to soil C concentration. Even when accounting for other soil C protection mechanisms, anaerobe abundance, our proxy for anoxic microsites, explained 41% of the variance and 5% of the unique variance in soil C concentration in cropland soils, making anoxic microsites the strongest management-responsive predictor of soil C concentration. Our results suggest that careful management of anoxic microsites may be a promising strategy to increase soil C storage within agricultural soils.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

High-Resolution Tandem Mass Spectrometry-Based Analysis of Model Lignin–Iron Complexes: Novel Pipeline and Complex Structures

Understanding the chemical nature of soil organic carbon (SOC) with great potential to bind iron (Fe) minerals is critical for predicting the stability of SOC. Organic ligands of Fe are among the top candidates for SOCs able to strongly sorb on Fe minerals, but most of them are still molecularly uncharacterized. To shed insights into the chemical nature of organic ligands in soil and their fate, this study developed a protocol for identifying organic ligands using ultrahigh-performance liquid chromatography-high-resolution tandem mass spectrometry (UHPLC-HRMS/MS) and metabolomic tools. The protocol was used for investigating the Fe complexes formed by model compounds of lignin-derived organic ligands, namely, caffeic acid (CA), p-coumaric acid (CMA), vanillin (VNL), and cinnamic acid (CNA). Isotopologue analysis of 54/56 Fe was used to screen out the potential UHPLC-HRMS (m/z) features for complexes formed between organic ligands and Fe, with multiple features captured for CA, CMA, VNL, and CNA when 35/37 Cl isotopologue analysis was used as supplementary evidence for the complexes with Cl. MS/MS spectra, fragment analysis, and structure prediction with SIRIUS were used to annotate the structures of mono/bidentate mono/biligand complexes. The analysis determined the structures of monodentate and bidentate complexes of FeL x Cl y (L: organic ligand, x = 1–4, y = 0–3) formed by model compounds. The protocol developed in this study can be used to identify unknown organic ligands occurring in complex environmental samples and shed light on the molecular-level processes governing the stability of the SOC.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Deep Learning Based Framework to Identify Undocumented Orphaned Oil and Gas Wells from Historical Maps: A Case Study for California and Oklahoma

Undocumented Orphaned Wells (UOWs) are wells without an operator that have limited or no documentation with regulatory authorities. An estimated 310,000 to 800,000 UOWs exist in the United States (US), whose locations are largely unknown. These wells can potentially leak methane and other volatile organic compounds to the atmosphere, and contaminate groundwater. In this study, we developed a novel framework utilizing a state-of-the-art computer vision neural network model to identify the precise locations of potential UOWs. The U-Net model is trained to detect oil and gas well symbols in georeferenced historical topographic maps, and potential UOWs are identified as symbols that are further than 100 m from any documented well. A custom tool was developed to rapidly validate the potential UOW locations. We applied this framework to four counties in California and Oklahoma, leading to the discovery of 1301 potential UOWs across >40,000 km 2 . We confirmed the presence of 29 UOWs from satellite images and 15 UOWs from magnetic surveys in the field with a spatial accuracy on the order of 10 m. This framework can be scaled to identify potential UOWs across the US since the historical maps are available for the entire nation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Bioactivity Profiling of Chemical Mixtures for Hazard Characterization

Abstract The assessment and regulation of chemical toxicity to protect human health and the environment are done one chemical at a time and seldom at environmentally relevant concentrations. However, chemicals are found in the environment as mixtures, and their toxicity is largely unknown. Understanding the hazard posed by chemicals within the mixture is critical to enforce protective measures. Here, we demonstrate the application of bioactivity profiling of environmental water samples using the sentinel and ecotoxicology model species Daphnia to reveal the biomolecular response induced by exposure to real-world mixtures. We exposed a Daphnia strain to 30 sampled waters of the Chaobai River and measured the gene expression response profiles. Using a multiblock correlation analysis, we establish correlations between chemical mixtures identified in 30 water samples with gene expression patterns induced by these chemical mixtures. We identified 80 metabolic pathways putatively activated by mixtures of inorganic ions, heavy metals, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, industrial chemicals, and a set of biocides, pesticides, and pharmacologically active substances. Our data-driven approach discovered both known bioactivity signatures with previously described modes of action and new pathways linked to undiscovered potential hazards. This study demonstrates the feasibility of reducing the complexity of real-world mixture toxicity to characterize the biomolecular effects of a defined number of chemical components based on gene expression monitoring of the sentinel species Daphnia.

Engineering↗
DOE OSTI2025

Sources and Composition of Organic Aerosols in the Central Arctic during Spring and Summer

Organic aerosols (OA) are a major component of Arctic aerosol mass and influence the region’s radiation budget, yet their sources and physicochemical properties remain largely unknown. We investigate OA sources and climate-relevant characteristics over the central Arctic Ocean in spring and summer, by applying positive matrix factorization to aerosol mass spectrometry data from two ship-based expeditions (2018 and 2020), complemented by total and interstitial aerosol measurements during fog periods. Six distinct OA factors were identified: haze-related OA, Arctic oxygenated OA, two mixed-OA types resembling biomass burning and primary marine OA linked to warm-air intrusions, marine OA, and hydrocarbon-related OA. Seasonal transitions strongly shaped OA composition. Following polar sunrise, highly oxygenated OA, likely formed secondarily from photo-oxidized volatile organic compounds, became dominant. After the polar vortex collapsed in May, episodic spikes in marine OA from the marginal ice zone appeared, alongside a reduced influence from Eurasian anthropogenic sources. These transitions influenced OA oxidation state and related properties including volatility, acidity, and hygroscopicity, highlighting the role of the Arctic spring atmosphere as an active photochemical reactor. Overall, OA was highly oxidized, with particles activated in fog during summer showing even greater oxidation, suggesting that central Arctic OA can be highly cloud active.

Arctic haze↗
DOE OSTI2026

The Value of Reversible Carbon Storage in a Zero-Emissions World

Atmospheric carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is required to stabilize global temperature. CDR can be achieved via ecosystem-based approaches that are cost-effective but reversible (e.g., soil and forest management) or by more durable but expensive approaches (e.g., direct air capture coupled with geologic storage). Here, we examine trade-offs between these approaches, focusing on timing, climate impacts, and cost. We simulated reversible carbon accrual for a range of CDR contract structures using a general minimalist model of ecosystem carbon cycling, and parameterized it to simulate US agricultural soil management─specifically cover cropping─as a case study. We then quantified the resulting impact on atmospheric carbon and global temperature using a climate model emulator. We find that maintaining a patchwork of reversible CDR projects by replacing lapsed projects with new projects can reduce warming by 22–195 μ°C in 2100 and that the magnitude of this cooling effect depends on how effectively the patchwork is maintained. Long-term maintenance of reversible CDR projects requires institutional stability that cannot be guaranteed over multiple decades. Consequently, effective CDR ultimately requires replacing reversible projects with durable projects. To address this problem, we modeled the cost of replacing reversible agricultural soil CDR with geologic CDR. We found that using reversible CDR as a bridge to durable CDR is potentially more cost-effective as a global cooling strategy (0.20–0.81 billion USD per μ°C avoided) than perpetual maintenance of reversible CDR (0.32–1.31 billion USD per μ°C avoided) or an immediate transition to durable CDR (1.37–2.19 billion USD per μ°C avoided). However, we emphasize that institutional commitments to maintain reversible CDR projects cannot be guaranteed. Reliance on reversible CDR as a bridge to durable CDR therefore carries an unknown amount of risk and will only function if efforts to maintain reversible CDR are robust.

carbon capture and storage↗