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At least 1,297 records · Page 72

Gravitational Fluctuations as an Alternative to Inflation III. Numerical Results

Power spectra play an important role in the theory of inflation, and their ability to reproduce current observational data to high accuracy is often considered a triumph of inflation, largely because of a lack of credible alternatives. In previous work we introduced an alternative picture for the cosmological power spectra based on the nonperturbative features of the quantum version of Einstein’s gravity, instead of currently popular inflation models based on scalar fields. The key ingredients in this new picture are the appearance of a nontrivial gravitational vacuum condensate (directly related to the observed cosmological constant), and a calculable renormalization group running of Newton’s G on cosmological scales. More importantly, one notes the absence of any fundamental scalar fields in this approach. Results obtained previously were largely based on a semi-analytical treatment, and thus, while generally transparent in their implementation, often suffered from the limitations of various approximations and simplifying assumptions. In this work, we extend and refine our previous calculations by laying out an updated and extended analysis, which now utilizes a set of suitably modified state-of-the-art numerical programs (ISiTGR, MGCAMB and MGCLASS) developed for observational cosmology. As a result, we are able to remove some of the approximations employed in our previous studies, leading to a number of novel and detailed physical predictions. These should help in potentially distinguishing the vacuum condensate picture of quantum gravity from that of other models such as scalar field inflation. Here, besides the matter power spectrum P m (k) , we work out, in detail, predictions for what are referred to as the TT, TE, EE, BB angular spectra, as well as their closely related lensing spectra. However, the current limited precision of observational data today (especially on large angular scales) does not allow us yet to clearly prove or disprove either set of ideas. Nevertheless, by exploring in more details the relationship between gravity and cosmological matter and radiation both analytically and numerically, together with an expected future influx of increasingly accurate observational data, one can hope that the new quantum gravitational picture can be subjected to further stringent tests in the near future.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A Model Tree Generator (MTG) Framework for Simulating Hydrologic Systems: Application to Reservoir Routing

Data-driven algorithms have been widely used as effective tools to mimic hydrologic systems. Unlike black-box models, decision tree algorithms offer transparent representations of systems and reveal useful information about the underlying process. A popular class of decision tree models is model tree (MT), which is designed for predicting continuous variables. Most MT algorithms employ an exhaustive search mechanism and a pre-defined splitting criterion to generate a piecewise linear model. However, this approach is computationally intensive, and the selection of the splitting criterion can significantly affect the performance of the generated model. These drawbacks can limit the application of MTs to large datasets. To overcome these shortcomings, a new flexible Model Tree Generator (MTG) framework is introduced here. MTG is equipped with several modules to provide a flexible, efficient, and effective tool for generating MTs. The application of the algorithm is demonstrated through simulation of controlled discharge from several reservoirs across the Contiguous United States (CONUS).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Preparing Lamellae from Vitreous Biological Samples using a Dual-Beam Scanning Electron Microscope for Cryo-Electron Tomography

Presented here is a protocol for preparing cryo-lamellae from plunge-frozen grids of Plasmodium falciparum-infected human erythrocytes, which could easily be adapted for other biological samples. The basic principles for preparing samples, milling, and viewing lamellae are common to all instruments and the protocol can be followed as a general guide to on-grid cryo-lamella preparation for cryo-electron microscopy (cryoEM) and cryo-electron tomography (cryoET). Electron microscopy grids supporting the cells are plunge-frozen into liquid nitrogen-cooled liquid ethane using a manual or automated plunge freezer, then screened on a light microscope equipped with a cryo-stage. Frozen grids are transferred into a cryo-scanning electron microscope equipped with a focused ion beam (cryoFIB-SEM). Grids are routinely sputter coated prior to milling, which aids dispersal of charge build-up during milling. Alternatively, an e-beam rotary coater can be used to apply a layer of carbon-platinum to the grids, the exact thickness of which can be more precisely controlled. Once inside the cryoFIB-SEM an additional coating of an organoplatinum compound is applied to the surface of the grid via a gas injection system (GIS). This layer protects the front edge of the lamella as it is milled, the integrity of which is critical for achieving uniformly thin lamellae. Regions of interest are identified via SEM and milling is carried out in a step-wise fashion, reducing the current of the ion beam as the lamella reaches electron transparency, in order to avoid excessive heat generation. A grid with multiple lamellae is then transferred to a transmission electron microscope (TEM) under cryogenic conditions for tilt-series acquisition. A robust and contamination-free workflow for lamella preparation is an essential step for downstream techniques, including cellular cryoEM, cryoET, and sub-tomogram averaging. Development of these techniques, especially for lift-out and milling of high-pressure frozen samples, is of high-priority in the field.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

The Astronomy Commons Platform: A Deployable Cloud-based Analysis Platform for Astronomy

Abstract We present a scalable, cloud-based science platform solution designed to enable next-to-the-data analyses of terabyte-scale astronomical tabular data sets. The presented platform is built on Amazon Web Services (over Kubernetes and S3 abstraction layers), utilizes Apache Spark and the Astronomy eXtensions for Spark for parallel data analysis and manipulation, and provides the familiar JupyterHub web-accessible front end for user access. We outline the architecture of the analysis platform, provide implementation details and rationale for (and against) technology choices, verify scalability through strong and weak scaling tests, and demonstrate usability through an example science analysis of data from the Zwicky Transient Facility’s 1Bn+ light-curve catalog. Furthermore, we show how this system enables an end user to iteratively build analyses (in Python) that transparently scale processing with no need for end-user interaction. The system is designed to be deployable by astronomers with moderate cloud engineering knowledge, or (ideally) IT groups. Over the past 3 yr, it has been utilized to build science platforms for the DiRAC Institute, the ZTF partnership, the LSST Solar System Science Collaboration, and the LSST Interdisciplinary Network for Collaboration and Computing, as well as for numerous short-term events (with over 100 simultaneous users). In a live demo instance, the deployment scripts, source code, and cost calculators are accessible. 4 4 http://hub.astronomycommons.org/

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Deep Generative Modeling of Periodic Variable Stars Using Physical Parameters

The ability to generate physically plausible ensembles of variable sources is critical to the optimization of time domain survey cadences and the training of classification models on data sets with few to no labels. Traditional data augmentation techniques expand training sets by reenvisioning observed exemplars, seeking to simulate observations of specific training sources under different (exogenous) conditions. Unlike fully theory-driven models, these approaches do not typically allow principled interpolation nor extrapolation. Moreover, the principal drawback of theory-driven models lies in the prohibitive computational cost of simulating source observables from ab initio parameters. In this work, we propose a computationally tractable machine learning approach to generate realistic light curves of periodic variables capable of integrating physical parameters and variability classes as inputs. Our deep generative model, inspired by the transparent latent space generative adversarial networks, uses a variational autoencoder (VAE) architecture with temporal convolutional network layers, trained using the OGLE-III optical light curves and physical characteristics (e.g., effective temperature and absolute magnitude) from Gaia DR2. A test using the temperature–shape relationship of RR Lyrae demonstrates the efficacy of our generative “physics-enhanced latent space VAE” (PELS-VAE) model. Such deep generative models, serving as nonlinear nonparametric emulators, present a novel tool for astronomers to create synthetic time series over arbitrary cadences.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Gamma Rays from Kilonova: A Potential Probe of r-process Nucleosynthesis

The mergers of compact binaries with at least one neutron star component are the potential leading sites of the production and ejection of r-process elements. Discoveries of galactic binary pulsars, short gamma-ray bursts, and gravitational-wave detections have all been constraining the rate of these events, while the gravitational wave plus broadband electromagnetic coverage of binary neutron star merger (GW170817) has also placed constraints on the properties (mass and composition) of the merger ejecta. But uncertainties and ambiguities in modeling the optical and infrared emission make it difficult to definitively measure the distribution of heavy isotopes in these mergers. In contrast, gamma rays emitted in the decay of these neutron-rich ejecta may provide a more direct measurement of the yields. We calculate the gamma production in remnants of neutron star mergers, considering two epochs: a kilonova epoch, lasting about two weeks, and a much later epoch of tens and hundreds of thousands of years after the merger. For the kilonova epoch, when the expanding ejecta is still only partially transparent to gamma radiation, we use 3D radiative transport simulations to produce the spectra. Futhermore, we show that the gamma-ray spectra associated with beta- and alpha-decay provide a fingerprint of the ejecta properties and, for a sufficiently nearby remnant, may be detectable, even for old remnants. We compare our gamma spectra with the potential detection limits of next generation detectors, including the Lunar Occultation Explorer (LOX), the All-sky Medium Energy Gamma-ray Observatory (AMEGO), and the Compton Spectrometer and Imager (COSI). We show that fission models can be discriminated via the presence of short-lived fission fragments in the remnant spectra.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Gamma-Ray Spectra of r -process Nuclei

The radioactive decay of unstable nuclei created in the rapid neutron capture process releases a large amount of γ-rays. When the ejecta are optically thick, these γ-rays may contribute to an associated kilonova. Once transparent, prominent spectral features will be directly observable in current and future γ-ray detectors. In this work, we study and compare the γ-ray spectra of different representative r-process trajectories across a broad range of timescales, from hours to 50,000 yr, identifying the nuclei that significantly contribute. We discuss these findings in the context of observability, noting that there are several practical challenges to connecting observed signatures to specific nuclei. However, if these challenges can be overcome, direct observation of γ-rays from r-process sites can provide insight into the fundamental physics underpinning the r-process.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Emergence of Microphysical Bulk Viscosity in Binary Neutron Star Postmerger Dynamics

Abstract In nuclear matter in isolated neutron stars, the flavor content (e.g., proton fraction) is subject to weak interactions, establishing flavor ( β -)equilibrium. However, there can be deviations from this equilibrium during the merger of two neutron stars. We study the resulting out-of-equilibrium dynamics during the collision by incorporating direct and modified Urca processes (in the neutrino-transparent regime) into general-relativistic hydrodynamics simulations with a simplified neutrino transport scheme. We demonstrate how weak-interaction-driven bulk viscosity in postmerger simulations can emerge and assess the bulk viscous dynamics of the resulting flow. We further place limits on the impact of the postmerger gravitational-wave strain. Our results show that weak-interaction-driven bulk viscosity can potentially lead to a phase shift of the postmerger gravitational-wave spectrum, although the effect is currently on the same level as the numerical errors of our simulation.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

Review of multi-fidelity models

Multi-fidelity models provide a framework for integrating computational models of varying complexity, allowing for accurate predictions while optimizing computational resources. These models are especially beneficial when acquiring high-accuracy data is costly or computationally intensive. This review offers a comprehensive analysis of multi-fidelity models, focusing on their applications in scientific and engineering fields, particularly in optimization and uncertainty quantification. It classifies publications on multi-fidelity modeling according to several criteria, including application area, surrogate model selection, types of fidelity, combination methods and year of publication. The study investigates techniques for combining different fidelity levels, with an emphasis on multi-fidelity surrogate models. Here this work discusses reproducibility, open-sourcing methodologies and benchmarking procedures to promote transparency. The manuscript also includes educational toy problems to enhance understanding. Additionally, this paper outlines best practices for presenting multi-fidelity-related savings in a standardized, succinct and yet thorough manner. The review concludes by examining current trends in multi-fidelity modeling, including emerging techniques, recent advancements, and promising research directions.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Offshore Wind Farm Turbine and Energy Storage Optimization

Abstract This paper evaluates the technical and economic feasibility of repurposing decommissioned offshore oil and gas platforms as electrical substations for offshore wind projects in the U.S. Gulf of America, a region characterized by relatively low and highly variable wind speeds, extensive legacy offshore infrastructure, and exposure to merchant electricity markets. A unified techno-economic framework is developed using the Repurposing Offshore Infrastructure for Continued Energy (ROICE) Economic Model (REM) to integrate Gulfspecific wind resource assessment, commercial wind turbine performance, offshore infrastructure cost modeling, and wholesale electricity market exposure. Gulf wind speed data are vertically extrapolated to turbine hub height and combined with manufacturer power curves to compute annual energy production and capacity factors across a broad portfolio of commercial turbines, enabling identification of turbine designs best suited for low-wind offshore environments. Hourly electricity price data from the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) day-ahead market are incorporated to characterize revenue potential, price volatility, and the temporal alignment between wind generation and market conditions. In addition, a conceptual framework for offshore battery energy storage system (BESS) integration is developed to support future investigation of market-responsive energy shifting at repurposed platforms. Results from the turbine evaluation demonstrate that machines with lower cut-in wind speeds and earlier ‘rated-power’ characteristics significantly outperform larger, industry-standard offshore turbines for the same net power under Gulf wind conditions, underscoring the need for region-specific technology selection. Market analysis further reveals substantial price variability and limited intrinsic alignment between wind production and high-price periods, motivating consideration of operational flexibility mechanisms. While storage optimization is not implemented in this study, the REM framework establishes a transparent and replicable foundation for co-evaluating turbine selection, infrastructure constraints, and market exposure, providing a practical pathway for assessing the potential role of repurposed offshore platforms in enabling economically viable offshore wind development in the Gulf of America.

02 PETROLEUM↗

The Neutronic Engine: A Platform for Operando Neutron Diffraction in Internal Combustion Engines

Neutron diffraction is a powerful tool for noninvasive and nondestructive characterization of materials and can be applied even in large devices such as internal combustion engines thanks to neutrons’ exceptional ability to penetrate many materials. While proof-of-concept experiments have shown the ability to measure spatially and temporally resolved lattice strains in a small aluminum engine on a timescale of minutes over a limited spatial region, extending this capability to timescales on the order of a crank angle degree over the full volume of the combustion chamber requires careful design and optimization of the engine structure to minimize attenuation of the incident and diffracted neutrons to maximize count rates. Here, we present the design of a “neutronic engine,” which is analogous to an optical engine in that the materials and external geometry of a typical automotive engine have been optimized to maximize access of the diagnostic while maintaining the internal combustion chamber geometry and operability of the engine. The high transparency of aluminum to neutrons makes it the ideal window material for neutron diagnostics, which allows the neutronic engine to be a truly all-metal engine with the same load and boundary condition capabilities of a modern downsized passenger car engine. The neutronic engine will enable 3D and time-resolved measurements of strain, stress, and temperature fields as well as phase transformation, texture, and microstructure throughout the metal components of the combustion chamber.

Wissink, Martin↗

LandScan Global 2023: Silver Edition

For a quarter of a century, the LandScan Global (LSG) project has annually released a global, high-resolution gridded population dataset representing the ambient or unwarned population at a 30 arcsecond resolution. LSG supports a range of applications such as emergency management, disaster response, and human health and security for understanding populations at risk. The 2023 release of LSG, the LandScan Silver Edition, represents a major methodological leap forward while also leveraging previous knowledge—the previous year was the baseline for the current annual update carrying forward valuable knowledge of the built environment for the past quarter century—to train the machine learning models. Compared with annual releases over the past 24years, multiple advancements were made to different aspects of the methodology to achieve reproducibility, transparency, and consistent global propagation of solutions to modeling or population distribution issues identified during the review process. These novel changes include incorporation of the latest available geospatial inputs across the globe, machine learning models instead of manual modifications, population feature importance analysis, open-source solutions vs. proprietary software, generation of multiple global versions, analytic validations, and human-in-the-loop revisions to produce the final version. Additionally, algorithms—such as anomaly detection—were introduced to quickly identify areas of focus to develop a new and robust systematic review. Significant changes in modeled population distributions were observed between the 2022 and 2023 releases, largely attributable to improvements in data and methods and discussed thoroughly within this report. In summation, the LandScan Silver Edition leverages the best of the past quarter century of LSG legacy knowledge and continues a tradition of applying cutting-edge enhancements to serve as a new benchmark for accurate, actionable gridded population data

Lebakula, Viswadeep↗

The fortedata R package: open-science datasets from a manipulative experiment testing forest resilience

The fortedata R package is an open data notebook from the Forest Resilience Threshold Experiment (FoRTE) – a modeling and manipulative field experiment that tests the effects of disturbance severity and disturbance type on carbon cycling dynamics in a temperate forest. Package data consist of measurements of carbon pools and fluxes and ancillary measurements to help analyze and interpret carbon cycling over time. Currently the package includes data and metadata from the first three FoRTE field seasons, serves as a central, updatable resource for the FoRTE project team, and is intended as a resource for external users over the course of the experiment and in perpetuity. Further, it supports all associated FoRTE publications, analyses, and modeling efforts. This increases efficiency, consistency, compatibility, and productivity while minimizing duplicated effort and error propagation that can arise as a function of a large, distributed and collaborative effort. More broadly, fortedata represents an innovative, collaborative way of approaching science that unites and expedites the delivery of complementary datasets to the broader scientific community, increasing transparency and reproducibility of taxpayer-funded science. The fortedata package is available via GitHub: https://github.com/FoRTExperiment/fortedata (last access: 19 February 2021), and detailed documentation on the access, used, and applications of fortedata are available at https://fortexperiment.github.io/fortedata/ (last access: 19 February 2021). The first public release, version 1.0.1 is also archived at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4399601 (Atkins et al., 2020b). All data products are also available outside of the package as .csv files: https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.13499148.v1 (Atkins et al., 2020c).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Water balance model (WBM) v.1.0.0: a scalable gridded global hydrologic model with water-tracking functionality

Abstract. This paper describes the University of New Hampshire Water Balance Model, WBM, a process-based gridded global hydrologic model that simulates the land surface components of the global water cycle and includes water extraction for use in agriculture and domestic sectors. The WBM was first published in 1989; here, we describe the first fully open-source WBM version (v.1.0.0). Earlier descriptions of WBM methods provide the foundation for the most recent model version that is detailed here. We present an overview of the model functionality, utility, and evaluation of simulated global river discharge and irrigation water use. This new version adds a novel suite of water source tracking modules that enable the analysis of flow-path histories on water supply. A key feature of WBM v.1.0.0 is the ability to identify the partitioning of sources for each stock or flux within the model. Three different categories of tracking are available: (1) primary inputs of water to the surface of the terrestrial hydrologic cycle (liquid precipitation, snowmelt, glacier melt, and unsustainable groundwater); (2) water that has been extracted for human use and returned to the terrestrial hydrologic system; and (3) runoff originating from user-defined spatial land units. Such component tracking provides a more fully transparent model in that users can identify the underlying mechanisms generating the simulated behavior. We find that WBM v.1.0.0 simulates global river discharge and irrigation water withdrawals well, even with default parameter settings, and for the first time, we are able to show how the simulation arrives at these fluxes by using the novel tracking functions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

PaleoSTeHM v1.0: a modern, scalable spatiotemporal hierarchical modeling framework for paleo-environmental data

Abstract. Geological records of past environmental change provide crucial insights into long-term climate variability, trends, non-stationarity, and nonlinear feedback mechanisms. However, reconstructing spatiotemporal fields from these records is statistically challenging due to their sparse, indirect, and noisy nature. Here, we present PaleoSTeHM, a scalable and modern framework for spatiotemporal hierarchical modeling of paleo-environmental data. This framework enables the implementation of flexible statistical models that rigorously quantify spatial and temporal variability from geological data while clearly distinguishing measurement and inferential uncertainty from process variability. We illustrate its application by reconstructing temporal and spatiotemporal paleo-sea-level changes across multiple locations. Using various modeling and analysis choices, PaleoSTeHM demonstrates the impact of different methods on inference results and computational efficiency. Our results highlight the critical role of model selection in addressing specific paleo-environmental questions, showcasing the PaleoSTeHM framework's potential to enhance the robustness and transparency of paleo-environmental reconstructions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Standardising the “Gregory method” for calculating equilibrium climate sensitivity

The equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) – the equilibrium global mean temperature response to a doubling of atmospheric CO 2 – is a high-profile metric for quantifying the Earth system's response to human-induced climate change. A widely applied approach to estimating the ECS is the “Gregory method” (Gregory et al., 2004), which uses an ordinary least squares (OLS) regression between the net radiative flux, N, and surface air temperature anomalies, ΔT, from a 150 year experiment in which atmospheric CO 2 concentrations are quadrupled. The ECS is determined by extrapolating the linear fit to N=0, i.e. the ΔT-intercept, indicating the point at which the system is back in equilibrium. This method has been used to compare ECS estimates across the CMIP5 and CMIP6 ensembles and will likely be a key diagnostic for CMIP7. Despite its widespread application, there is little consistency or transparency between studies in how the climate model data is processed prior to the regression, leading to potential discrepancies in ECS estimates. We identify 32 alternative data processing pathways, varying by differences in global mean weighting, net radiative flux variable, anomaly calculation method, and linear regression fit. Using 44 CMIP6 models, we systematically assess the impact of these choices on ECS estimates and calculate uncertainty ranges using two bootstrap approaches. While the inter-model ECS range is insensitive to the data processing pathway, individual outlier models exhibit notable differences. Approximating a model's native grid cell area (if irregular) with cosine of the latitude can decrease the ECS by 11 %, the choice of N-variable can change the ECS by 6 %, and some anomaly calculation methods can introduce spurious temporal correlations in the processed data. Beyond data processing choices, we also evaluate an alternative linear regression method – total least squares (TLS) – which has a more statistically robust basis than OLS. However, for consistency with previous literature, and given TLS may reduce the ECS compared to OLS (by up to 24 %), thereby making a known bias in the Gregory method worse, we do not feel there is sufficient clarity to recommend a transition to TLS in all cases. To improve reproducibility and comparability in future studies, we recommend a standardised Gregory method: weighting the global mean by cell area, using the top of the atmosphere (as opposed to the top of model) N-variable, and calculating anomalies by first applying a rolling average to the preindustrial control timeseries then subtracting from the raw CO 2 quadrupling experiment. This approach accounts for model drift while reducing noise in the data to best meet the pre-conditions of the linear regression. While CMIP6 results of the multi-model mean ECS appear insensitive to these processing choices, similar assumptions may not hold for CMIP7, underscoring the need for standardised data preparation in future climate sensitivity assessments.

Geosciences↗

New framework for benchmarking decadal predictions leveraging the PCMDI Metric Package with interactive visualization

Reliable climate predictions across multiple timescales are increasingly critical as climate-related risks continue to rise. With the growing number and diversity of climate prediction systems, systematic intercomparison has become essential. Here, we present a comprehensive evaluation framework based on the PCMDI Metric Package to assess the performance of multiple decadal climate prediction systems. Unlike uninitialized simulations, initialized predictions exhibit bias and predictive skill that evolve with forecast lead time. To address this, we introduce (1) model-by-lead-time portrait plots, which efficiently summarize metrics of global temperature, precipitation, and Arctic/Antarctic sea-ice extent, and (2) an HTML-based interactive visualization platform that provides detailed regional and seasonal diagnostics of model bias, skill scores, and ensemble spread for each model and lead time. Comparisons with uninitialized simulations further quantify the relative impacts of initialization and external forcing on prediction skill. The proposed framework provides a scalable and transparent approach for multi-model climate prediction assessments and can be readily extended to a wide range of operational and research forecasting systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Tools for pressure core sub-coring and pore-scale micro-CT (computed tomography) scans

Abstract. The pore habits of gas hydrate in natural sediment matrices provide essential clues for understanding physical (mechanical, thermal, hydraulic, and electrical) properties of hydrate-bearing sediments, yet there are no tools that can directly visualize the pore habits of natural gas hydrate other than indirect interpretation based on core-scale or field-scale observations. A significant challenge is to obtain a mini-core from pressure cores retrieved from natural reservoirs for high-resolution micro-CT (computed tomography) scans while maintaining pressure and temperature conditions required for stability of gas hydrate during all operational steps including manipulation, cutting, transferring, sub-coring and CT scanning. We present a new set of tools for pore-scale micro-CT imaging of natural hydrate-bearing sediments while maintaining pressure and temperature control. The tests with laboratory-prepared cores and pressure cores successfully demonstrate the capability of this set of tools to subsample a mini-core from pressure cores, transfer the mini-core to an X-ray transparent core holder, and conduct micro-CT scans. Successfully obtained CT images prove the functionality of this set of tools.

Seol, Yongkoo↗