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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

A Stochastic Approach to Reconstruct Gamma-Ray-burst Light Curves

Gamma-ray bursts (GRBs), as they are observed at high redshift ( z = 9.4), are vital to cosmological studies and investigating Population III stars. To tackle these studies, we need correlations among relevant GRB variables with the requirement of small uncertainties on their variables. Thus, we must have good coverage of GRB light curves (LCs). However, gaps in the LC hinder the precise determination of GRB properties and are often unavoidable. Therefore, extensive categorization of GRB LCs remains a hurdle. We address LC gaps using a stochastic reconstruction, wherein we fit two preexisting models (the Willingale model; W07; and a broken power law; BPL) to the observed LC, then use the distribution of flux residuals from the original data to generate data to fill in the temporal gaps. We also demonstrate a model-independent LC reconstruction via Gaussian processes. At 10% noise, the uncertainty of the end time of the plateau, its correspondent flux, and the temporal decay index after the plateau decreases by 33.3%, 35.03%, and 43.32% on average for the W07, and by 33.3%, 30.78%, 43.9% for the BPL, respectively. The uncertainty of the slope of the plateau decreases by 14.76% in the BPL. After using the Gaussian process technique, we see similar trends of a decrease in uncertainty for all model parameters for both the W07 and BPL models. These improvements are essential for the application of GRBs as standard candles in cosmology, for the investigation of theoretical models, and for inferring the redshift of GRBs with future machine-learning analyses.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1988

Extinction and backscatter measurements of Antarctic PSC's, 1987: Implications for particle and vapor removal

The temperature dependence is examined of optical properties measured in the Antarctic during 1987 at the 70 mb level (near 18 km), a level chosen to correlate the results with in situ measurements made from the NASA-Ames ER-2 aircraft during the 1987 Airborne Antarctic Ozone Experiment (AAOE). The data set consists of extinction measurements by Sam 2 inside the Antarctic polar vortex from May to October 1987; and backscatter measurements by the UV-DIAL (Ultraviolet Differential Absorption Lidar) system aboard the Ames DC-8 aircraft during selected AAOE flights. Observed trends are compared with results from a revised version of Pole and McCormick's model to classify the PSC observations by Type (1 or 2) and infer the temporal behavior of the ambient aerosol and ambient vapor mixing ratios. The sample figures show monthly ensembles of the 70-mb Sam 2 extinction ratio (the ratio of aerosol or PSC extinction to molecule extinction) as a function of NMC temperature at the beginning (June) and (October) of the 1987 Antarctic winter. Both ensembles show two rather distinct clusters of points: one oriented in the near vertical direction which depicts the change with temperature of the ambient aerosol extinction ratio; and a second cluster oriented in the near horizontal direction whose position on the vertical scale marks a change in particle phase (i.e., PSC formation) and whose length (the extinction enhancement related to that of the ambient aerosol) is an indicator of PSC type.

Poole, L. R.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Data Assimilation Into a Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Model: Application to the 1997-1998 El Nino

As part of JPL's ocean data assimilation effort to study ocean circulation and seasonal-interannual climate variability, sea level anomaly observed by TOPEX altimeter, together with sea surface temperature and wind stress data, are assimilated into a simple coupled ocean atmosphere model of the tropical Pacific. Model-data consistency is examined. Impact of the assimilation (as initialization) on El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecasts is evaluated. The coupled model consists of a shallow water component with two baroclinic modes, an Ekman shear layer, a simplified mixed-layer temperature equation, and a statistical atmosphere based on dominant correlations between historical surface temperature and wind stress anomaly data. The adjoins method is used to fit the coupled model to the data over various six-month periods from late 1996 to early 1998 by optimally adjusting the initial state, model parameters, and basis functions of the statistical atmosphere. On average, the coupled model can be fitted to the data to approximately within the data and representation errors (5 cm, 0.5 C, and 10 sq m/sq m for sea level, surface temperature, and pseudo wind stress anomalies, respectively). The estimated fields resemble observed spatio-temporal structure reasonably well. Hindcasts/forecasts of the 1997/1998 El Nino initialized from forced estimated ocean states and parameters are much more realistic than those simply initialized from ocean states (see figure below). In particular, the ability of the model to produce significant warming beyond the initial state is dramatically improved. Parameter estimation, which compensates for some model errors, is found to be important to obtaining better fits of the model to data and to improving forecasts.

Lee, Tong↗
DOE OSTI2023

Photoconversion in Disordered Semiconductors: Spatial, Spectral, and Temporal Insights through Nonlinear Microscopy (Final Technical Report)

Conversion of solar photons to useable energy requires two processes to occur successfully in a light-harvesting material: 1) the initial photoexcited state must efficiently produce excited states that are free to move, and 2) those states must be transported to a new location where they can do useful work before any potential is lost as heat. The core focus of this project examined the spatial and energetic dynamics of these two primary events of photoconversion in solution-processed semiconducting materials. The electronic properties of these systems are complex and strongly influenced by the cumulative interaction of local morphology and composition, along with defects, interfaces, and trap sites. It is therefore important to interrogate these systems at the local level, where structural and compositional heterogeneity can be precisely correlated to variation in functionality. Utilizing ultrafast laser spectroscopy coupled together with optical microscopy, this project examined how excited states and free charges spatially and energetically evolve on length scales between 10 nanometers and 10 microns and on timescales from 50 femtoseconds to 1 nanosecond. Insights gained from measurements made on these characteristic length and time scales provided new insight into how macroscopic functionality in disordered photovoltaic materials emerges from the interplay of nanoscale and mesoscale interactions.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1980

Control of the Earth's electric field intensity through solar wind modulation of galactic cosmic radiation: Support for a proposed atmospheric electrical sun-weather mechanism

The ionospheric potential and galactic cosmic radiation, found to be inversely correlated with the solar wind velocity are examined as being germane to weather modification. Since the ionospheric potential is proportional to the fair weather electric field intensity and cosmic radiation is the dominant source of atmospheric ionization, it is concluded that the Earth's overall electric field varies in phase with atmospheric ionization and that the latter is modulated by the solar wind. A proposed mechanism, in which solar control of ionizing radiation influences atmospheric electrification and thus possibly cloud physical processes is discussed. An experimental approach to critically test the proposed mechanism through comparison of the temporal variation of the Earth's electric field with conditions in the interplanetary medium is outlined.

Markson, R.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Growth and maintenance of large-scale magnetic fields in the dayside Venus ionosphere

Observations from the Pioneer Venus orbiter magnetometer reveal the presence of large-scale magnetic fields in the dayside ionosphere during or after periods of high solar wind dynamic pressure. Various hypotheses have been proposed concerning the spatial and temporal evolution of these field structures. The hypothesis that the field is produced by a diffusion/convection process rather than by currents driven by electric fields resulting from the solar wind interaction is examined. Dynamic pressure variations occur on various time scales at Venus, producing transient and quasi-steady magnetization features. A one-dimensional diffusion/convection calculation is performed, using typical ionopause field and pressure values for a variety of altitudes. The Venus ionopause is considered to be the altitude at which ionospheric thermal pressure is equal to the magnetosheath magnetic pressure, which in turn is well correlated with the normal component of solar wind dynamic pressure. A subsolar model of downward plasma velocity in the 140-290 km range is used. The calculated growth of the ionospheric magnetic field, and the resulting quasi-steady altitude profiles, compare favorably with the observed profiles. The majority of the observed magnetic structures are best explained as the quasi-steady effects of the prevailing solar wind dynamic pressure, which determines the altitude and magnetic field strength of the ionopause boundary.

Phillips, J. L.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Near UV atmospheric absorption measurements from the DC-8 aircraft during the 1987 airborne Antarctic ozone experiment

During the Airborne Antarctic Ozone Experiment from 28 August to 30 September 1987 near UV zenith scattered sky measurements were made over Antarctic from the NASA DC-8 aircraft using a one third m spectrograph equipped with a diode-array detector. Scattered sky light data in the wavelength range 348 nm to 388 nm was spectrally analyzed for O3, NO2, OClO, and BrO column abundances. Slant column abudances of O3, NO2, OClO and BrO were determined, using a computer algorithm of non-linear and linear least square correlation of Antarctic scattered sky spectra to laboratory absorption cross section data. Using measured vertical electrochemical sonde ozone profiles from Palmer, Halley Bay, and the South Pole Stations the slant columns of O3 were converted into vertical column abundances. The vertical column amounts of NO2, OClO, and BrO were derived using vertical profiles calculated by a chemical model appropriate for Antarctica. NO2 vertical column abundances show steep latitudinal decrease with increasing latitude for all 13 flights carried out during the mission. In the regions where NO2 abudances are low, OClO and BrO were observed. The spatial and temporal vertical column abundances of these species are discussed in the context of the chemistry and dynamics in the antarctic polar vortex during the austral spring.

Wahner, A.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Generic Signatures of the Time Profiles of BATSE Cosmic Gamma-Ray Bursts

A new method is proposed, which allows the study of generic signatures of cosmic gamma-ray burst time histories. We average the 64 ms resolution time profiles of 275 bright bursts detected by BATSE. The profile of each burst is normalized by the maximum number of counts at the peak of the primary pulse, and individual pulses and interpulse valleys are selected from the normalized profiles by identical selection criteria. New generic temporal parameters are introduced, which characterize the duration and equivalent width of each pulse and the duration of each valley. The histograms of the total equivalent pulse width and summed pulse duration are bimodal. Bimodality is also seen in the histogram of the mean duration of individual pulses. Bursts from the short and long peaks of these distributions correspond to the two modes of the Third BATSE Burst Catalog T(sub 50) and T(sub 90) distributions. Therefore, these new burst parameters demonstrate that the observed bimodal temporal behavior results from properties of the pulsed emission of gamma-ray bursts. The long mode of the T(sub 90) histogram includes bursts with from one to approximately 20 pulses; the logarithmic mean pulse duration is 1.17 +/- 0.09 S; for the long events with more than one pulse, the logarithmic mean valley duration is 1.28 +/- 0.15 S. Bursts of the short mode of T(sub 90) are mainly single-pulse events, and the logarithmic mean pulse duration is much smaller, 0.20 +/- 0.01 s. For multipulse bursts of the T(sub 90) long mode, marginal correlations were found between the parameters of the pulses and valleys and the number of pulses. The basic signatures of the evolution of pulses and valleys along the time course of bursts are examined. Conclusions are drawn concerning the physics of gamma-ray emission by taking into account these signatures.

Mitrofanov, Igor G.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Bird Migration Under Climate Change - A Mechanistic Approach Using Remote Sensing

The broad-scale reductions and shifts that may be expected under climate change in the availability and quality of stopover habitat for long-distance migrants is an area of increasing concern for conservation biologists. Researchers generally have taken two broad approaches to the modeling of migration behaviour to understand the impact of these changes on migratory bird populations. These include models based on causal processes and their response to environmental stimulation, "mechanistic models", or models that primarily are based on observed animal distribution patterns and the correlation of these patterns with environmental variables, i.e. "data driven" models. Investigators have applied the latter technique to forecast changes in migration patterns with changes in the environment, for example, as might be expected under climate change, by forecasting how the underlying environmental data layers upon which the relationships are built will change over time. The learned geostatstical correlations are then applied to the modified data layers.. However, this is problematic. Even if the projections of how the underlying data layers will change are correct, it is not evident that the statistical relationships will remain the same, i.e. that the animal organism may not adapt its' behaviour to the changing conditions. Mechanistic models that explicitly take into account the physical, biological, and behaviour responses of an organism as well as the underlying changes in the landscape offer an alternative to address these shortcomings. The availability of satellite remote sensing observations at multiple spatial and temporal scales, coupled with advances in climate modeling and information technologies enable the application of the mechanistic models to predict how continental bird migration patterns may change in response to environmental change. In earlier work, we simulated the impact of effects of wetland loss and inter-annual variability on the fitness of migratory shorebirds in the central fly ways of North America. We demonstrated the phenotypic plasticity of a migratory population of Pectoral sandpipers consisting of an ensemble of 10,000 individual birds in response to changes in stopover locations using an individual based migration model driven by remotely sensed land surface data, climate data and biological field data. With the advent of new computing capabilities enabled hy recent GPU-GP computing paradigms and commodity hardware, it now is possible to simulate both larger ensemble populations and to incorporate more realistic mechanistic factors into migration models. Here, we take our first steps use these tools to study the impact of long-term drought variability on shorebird survival.

Smith, James A.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Radar Altimetry as a Proxy for Determining Terrestrial Water Storage Variability in Tropical Basins

The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission has provided us with unforeseen information on terrestrial water-storage (TWS) variability, contributing to our understanding of global hydrological processes, including hydrological extreme events and anthropogenic impacts on water storage. Attempts to decompose GRACE-based TWS signals into its different water storage layers, i.e., surface water storage (SWS), soil moisture, groundwater and snow, have shown that SWS is a principal component, particularly in the tropics, where major rivers flow over arid regions at high latitudes. Here, we demonstrate that water levels, measured with radar altimeters at a limited number of locations, can be used to reconstruct gridded GRACE-based TWS signals in the Amazon basin, at spatial resolutions ranging from 0.5 to 3°, with mean absolute errors (MAE) as low as 2.5 cm and correlations as high as 0.98. We show that, at 3° spatial resolution, spatially-distributed TWS time series can be precisely reconstructed with as few as 41 water-level time series located within the basin. The proposed approach is competitive when compared to existing TWS estimates derived from physically based and computationally expensive methods. Also, a validation experiment indicates that TWS estimates can be extrapolated to periods beyond that of the model regression with low errors. The approach is robust, based on regression models and interpolation techniques, and offers a new possibility to reproduce spatially and temporally distributed TWS that could be used to fill inter-mission gaps and to extend GRACE-based TWS time series beyond its timespan.

Terrestrial water storage↗
DOE OSTI2020

Core-collapse supernova neutrino emission and detection informed by state-of-the-art three-dimensional numerical models

ABSTRACT Based on our recent three-dimensional core-collapse supernova (CCSN) simulations including both exploding and non-exploding models, we study the detailed neutrino signals in representative terrestrial neutrino observatories, namely Super-Kamiokande (Hyper-Kamiokande), DUNE, JUNO, and IceCube. We find that the physical origin of difference in the neutrino signals between 1D and 3D is mainly proto-neutron-star convection. We study the temporal and angular variations of the neutrino signals and discuss the detectability of the time variations driven by the spiral standing accretion shock instability (spiral SASI) when it emerges for non-exploding models. In addition, we determine that there can be a large angular asymmetry in the event rate (${\gtrsim} 50 {{\ \rm per\ cent}}$), but the time-integrated signal has a relatively modest asymmetry (${\lesssim} 20 {{\ \rm per\ cent}}$). Both features are associated with the lepton-number emission self-sustained asymmetry and the spiral SASI. Moreover, our analysis suggests that there is an interesting correlation between the total neutrino energy (TONE) and the cumulative number of neutrino events in each detector, a correlation that can facilitate data analyses of real observations. We demonstrate the retrieval of neutrino energy spectra for all flavours of neutrino by applying a novel spectrum reconstruction technique to the data from multiple detectors. We find that this new method is capable of estimating the TONE within the error of ∼20 per cent if the distance to the CCSN is ≲6 kpc.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Price equation captures the role of drug interactions and collateral effects in the evolution of multidrug resistance

Bacterial adaptation to antibiotic combinations depends on the joint inhibitory effects of the two drugs (drug interaction [DI]) and how resistance to one drug impacts resistance to the other (collateral effects [CE]). Here we model these evolutionary dynamics on two-dimensional phenotype spaces that leverage scaling relations between the drug-response surfaces of drug-sensitive (ancestral) and drug-resistant (mutant) populations. We show that evolved resistance to the component drugs – and in turn, the adaptation of growth rate – is governed by a Price equation whose covariance terms encode geometric features of both the two-drug-response surface (DI) in ancestral cells and the correlations between resistance levels to those drugs (CE). Within this framework, mean evolutionary trajectories reduce to a type of weighted gradient dynamics, with the drug interaction dictating the shape of the underlying landscape and the collateral effects constraining the motion on those landscapes. We also demonstrate how constraints on available mutational pathways can be incorporated into the framework, adding a third key driver of evolution. Our results clarify the complex relationship between drug interactions and collateral effects in multidrug environments and illustrate how specific dosage combinations can shift the weighting of these two effects, leading to different and temporally explicit selective outcomes.

Gjini, Erida↗
NASA NTRS2008

An Observational Study of the Relationship between Cloud, Aerosol and Meteorology in Broken Low-Level Cloud Conditions

Global satellite analyses showing strong correlations between aerosol optical depth and 3 cloud cover have stirred much debate recently. While it is tempting to interpret the results as evidence of aerosol enhancement of cloud cover, other factors such as the influence of meteorology on both the aerosol and cloud distributions can also play a role, as both aerosols and clouds depend upon local meteorology. This study uses satellite observations to examine aerosol-cloud relationships for broken low-level cloud regions off the coast of Africa. The analysis approach minimizes the influence of large-scale meteorology by restricting the spatial and temporal domains in which the aerosol and cloud properties are compared. While distributions of several meteorological variables within 5deg 5deg latitude-longitude regions are nearly identical under low and high aerosol optical depth, the corresponding distributions of single-layer low cloud properties and top-of-atmosphere radiative fluxes differ markedly, consistent with earlier studies showing increased cloud cover with aerosol optical depth. Furthermore, fine-mode fraction and Angstrom Exponent are also larger in conditions of higher aerosol optical depth, even though no evidence of systematic latitudinal or longitudinal gradients between the low and high aerosol optical depth populations are observed. When the analysis is repeated for all 5deg 5deg latitude-longitude regions over the global oceans (after removing cases in which significant meteorological differences are found between the low and high aerosol populations), results are qualitatively similar to those off the coast of Africa.

Loeb, Norman G.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Argentina Food Security & Agriculture: Crop Monitoring and Forecasting for Argentina using NASA Satellite Observations

Early harvest information helps guide agricultural commodity assessments in Argentina, providing valuable planning information to identify potentially food-insecure regions, anticipate transportation and storage demands, predict price fluctuations, and project commodity trends. However, crop yield estimates are currently subjective, based on interviews with qualified informants (i.e., farmers, agribusiness actors). In partnership with the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, we leveraged Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP), and Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM IMERG) NASA Earth observations to develop a Google Earth Engine (GEE) toolset to monitor vegetation growth. The first component of the toolset produces spatial and temporal maps of temperature, precipitation, soil moisture, and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), allowing users to visualize the influence of the region’s climate and weather. Next, we developed an autoregressive model to predict NDVI several months in advance. Lastly, we created a linear regression model of crop yield and NDVI for soybeans, corn, and wheat, and input the forecasted NDVI to generate a predicted crop yield output. The NDVI forecasting model produced accurate predictions at two, four, and six months when examining the most recent growing season. In the crop yield model, soybeans exhibited moderately strong correlation, wheat had consistent weak correlation, and corn varied from weak to strong correlation depending on zone. This information is vital for vegetation growth monitoring by identifying areas of high growth and allocating resources to areas of lower growth to efficiently maximize crop yields.

DEVELOP Tech Paper↗
DOE OSTI2020

Collagen Turnover in Relation to Risk Factors and Hemodynamics in Human Intracranial Aneurysms

Determinants for molecular and structural instability, that is, impending growth or rupture, of intracranial aneurysms (IAs) remain uncertain. To elucidate this, we endeavored to estimate the actual turnover rates of the main molecular constituent in human IA (collagen) on the basis of radiocarbon ( 14 C) birth dating in relation to IA hemodynamics. Collagen turnover rates in excised human IA samples were calculated using mathematical modeling of 14 C birth dating data of collagen in relation to risk factors and histological markers for collagen maturity/turnover in selected IA. Hemodynamics were simulated using image-based computational fluid dynamics. Correlation, logistic regression, and receiver operating characteristic analyses were performed. Collagen turnover rates were estimated in 46 IA (43 patients); computational fluid dynamics could be performed in 20 IA (20 patients). The mean collagen turnover rate (γ) constituted 126% (±1% error) per year. For patients with arterial hypertension, γ was greater than 2600% annually, whereas γ was distinctly lower with 32% (±1% error) per year for patients without risk factors, such as smoking and hypertension. There was a distinct association between histological presence of rather immature collagen in human IA and the presence of modifiable risk factors. Spatial-temporal averaged wall shear stress predicted rapid collagen turnover (odds ratio, 1.6 [95% CI, 1.0–2.7]). Receiver operating characteristic analysis demonstrated a good test accuracy (area under the curve, 0.798 [95% CI, 0.598–0.998]) for average wall shear stress with a threshold ≥4.9 Pa for rapid collagen turnover. Our data indicate that turnover rates and stability of collagen in human IA are strongly associated with the presence of modifiable risk factors and aneurysmal hemodynamics. Finally, these findings underline the importance of strict risk factor modification in patients with unruptured IA. Future should include more detailed risk factor data to establish a more causal understanding of hemodynamics and the rupture risk of individual IA.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

PipeSight: A High-Performance Computing Platform for Pipeline Integrity Management

The Phase I feasibility study completed as part of this project has led to a number of innovative technologies being developed and has laid the foundation for a successful Phase II effort to commercialize a platform for managing the integrity of pipelines for the damage mechanisms of the new, hybrid-energy based economy. To ground the development efforts and direction of the project, an extensive market research and customer discovery effort was undertaken early in Phase I. Through this effort, a number of pipeline owners and operators were interviewed, and the following key findings were discovered about the pipeline industry: • Small pipeline operators do not have the central engineering groups necessary to perform their own independent analysis of inspection data, but instead rely on summarized tally sheets provided to them by inspection service providers. • The time it takes to go from an inspection to a completed engineering assessment, even for small segments of pipeline, can take anywhere from 30-120 days. During this delay, critical threats can (and have been known to) cause failures. • Uncertainty is often not accounted for in the assessment of pipeline integrity. The tally sheets provided by third-party service providers are almost always deterministic in nature, identifying threats that present a concern only to the current (not the future) integrity of the pipeline. • It is uncommon to apply the latest technologies to perform advanced assessments of damaged pipelines. There is a desire to use more advanced analysis capabilities to assess threats. Many pipeline operators indicated that they would often excavate a pipeline to perform an inspection and find that the damage was not as bad as they anticipated, thus using limited resources unnecessarily. Companies are not consistent in their use of inspection data to determine corrosion rates, and those that do only calculate deterministic corrosion rates. • The industry has prominently relied on time-based inspections but has recently started to transition to risk-based inspections. However, there appears to be no uniform guidance on how to do so while properly accounting for all sources of uncertainty. • Companies are not storing inspection data in a manner that allows for the ready determination of temporal trends. • Predictive maintenance principles and practices are beginning to be used by early adopters • Some pipelines are being re-purposed to transport different process fluids than they were designed for, e.g., H 2 and CO 2 rich process streams to serve the new hybrid-energy based economy, which are presenting new integrity concerns for the existing pipeline network that crisscrosses the United States. As a result of these discoveries, we were able to target the development efforts in Phase I to best serve the needs of the industry. In Phase I, we developed a way to correlate multiple large-scale scans of the pipeline to determine a probabilistic corrosion rate that accounts for all sources of error and uncertainty in the inspection process. This probabilistic corrosion rate can be used to predict the future thickness distribution of the pipe wall. We demonstrate how this analysis may be performed in an analytical fashion and has been implemented in such a manner that it can be readily distributed using GPU computing through integration of the Kokkos programming model. We also make a very novel extension of the analytical corrosion rate model to Bayesian Networks (an explainable AI technique) that can account for non-parametric distributions of corrosion rates. With the predictions made above for the probabilistic corrosion rate and corresponding future distribution of the pipe wall thickness, we can assess the integrity of the pipeline through the use of a probabilistic engineering assessment. We developed a novel screening data analysis approach that can rapidly identify ‘hotspots’ (local thin areas) where the integrity of the pipeline is a concern. Once more, we implemented this screening approach in C++ to leverage GPU computing via the Kokkos programming model. After the critical hotspots are identified, we developed a program that can automatically generate an advanced finite element model of the damaged regions. Since the number of damaged regions that require advanced analysis can number in the thousands, we integrated an open-source container-native workflow engine for orchestrating parallel jobs on the cloud. Initially, these advanced numerical models were only designed to account for loading due to internal pressure. However, in a slight pivot from the initial Phase I proposal, we developed a complete pipe stress analysis program (called Simflex) which can simulate the complete pipeline and its response to thermal expansion, pressure, thermal bowing, weight, wind, earthquake, support displacement, support friction and external forces. This pipe stress analysis program was written generically, to handle any piping system, but contains the features needed to model long pipelines (i.e., it incorporates a model for soil mechanics and can account for the nonlinear boundary conditions necessary to simulate long underground pipelines). This pipe stress analysis program can simulate any segment of the pipeline (simple or complex) under any set of conditions and loads, to determine the supplemental loads (axial forces and bending moments) at the location of damage. This enables the most accurate state of stress to be accounted for in the pipeline, which can prove critical when evaluating the integrity of a damaged region. In the process of developing the technologies to perform the integrity assessment of the pipeline, we also extended one of the industry standard approaches for performing the assessment of local thin areas that extend more in the circumferential direction than the longitudinal direction of the pipeline. This approach was presented to the API 579-1/AS ME FFS-1 steering committee in November 2021 for consideration in the next edition of the industry standard for Fitness-For-Service (expected to be released in 2023). To help pipeline operators make decisions with the results on any integrity assessment, we developed a new approach to the life-cycle management of pipelines which uses a Bayesian Decision Network. The network is designed to help pipeline operators plan and prioritize inspection activities and ultimately make smarter, more cost-effective decisions. The Bayesian approach accounts for all sources of uncertainty and carries them through to the final optimal decisions, providing a probabilistic framework for optimizing inspection intervals. The proof-of-concept networks developed in the feasibility study are complete, verified, and are focused on a subset of the pipeline. To expand this novel approach to the scale necessary for an entire network of pipelines in Phase II, we will leverage the DOE-funded Bengi solver for industrial-scale decision making with Bayesian Networks [22]. Once implemented, we will be able to provide the pipeline industry with a much-needed tool for optimal inspection planning using truly explainable artificial intelligence (XAI). To handle all of these advanced capabilities into a cloud-based platform, the architecture of the Equity Engineering Cloud (EEC) was extended to include Argo Workflows, a framework capable of distributing and managing a massive number of jobs that consume their own resources, such that thousands of serial finite element simulations can be run in parallel. As part of this substantial undertaking, we also integrated Argo Continuous Delivery (CD) into the EEC, to aid with the rapid prototyping and iterations that will be imperative to the success of the PipeSight platform’s Agile development process in Phase II. As part of the pipe stress analysis program, we also developed a custom visualizer that leverages the DOE-funded VTK visualization library. We added custom contouring capabilities and a means for interacting visually with both the inputs and outputs of the pipe stress analysis program. We also developed routines for automating the post-processing of the finite element simulations to determine if any failure criteria are met and to visualize the deformations, stresses and strains in ParaView using the exodus II file format (a subset of netCDF).

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRS1979

Modeling of electron time variations in the radiation belts

A review of the temporal variation in the trapped electron population of the inner and outer radiation zones is presented. Techniques presently used for modeling these zones are discussed and their deficiencies identified. An intermediate region is indicated between the zones in which the present modeling techniques are inadequate due to the magnitude and frequency of magnetic storms. Future trends are examined, and it is suggested that modeling of individual magnetic storms may be required in certain L bands. An analysis of seven magnetic storms is presented, establishing the independence of the depletion time of the storm flux and the storm magnitude. Provisional correlation between the storm magnitude and the Dst index is demonstrated.

Chan, K. W.↗
NASA NTRS1993

A regional analysis of cloudy mean spherical albedo over the marine stratocumulus region and the tropical Atlantic Ocean

Since clouds are the largest variable in Earth's radiation budget, it is critical to determine both the spatial and temporal characteristics of their radiative properties. The relationships between cloud properties and cloud fraction are studied in order to supplement grid scale parameterizations. The satellite data used is from three hourly ISCCP (International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project) and monthly ERBE (Earth Radiation Budget Experiment) data on a 2.5 deg x 2.5 deg latitude-longitude grid. Mean cloud spherical albedo, the mean optical depth distribution, and cloud fraction are examined and compared off the coast of California and the mid-tropical Atlantic for July 1987 and 1988. Individual grid boxes and spatial averages over several grid boxes are correlated to Coakley's theory of reflection for uniform and broken layered cloud and to Kedem, et al.'s findings that rainfall volume and fractional area of rain in convective systems is linear. Kedem's hypothesis can be expressed in terms of cloud properties. That is, the total volume of liquid in a box is a linear function of cloud fraction. Results for the marine stratocumulus regime indicate that albedo is often invariant for cloud fractions of 20% to 80%. Coakley's satellite model of small and large clouds with cores (1 km) and edges (100 m) is consistent with this observation. The cores maintain high liquid water concentrations and large droplets while the edges contain low liquid water concentrations and small droplets. Large clouds are just a collection of cores. The mean optical depth (TAU) distributions support the above observation with TAU values of 3.55 to 9.38 favored across all cloud fractions. From these results, a method based upon Kedem, et al's theory is proposed to separate the cloud fraction and liquid water path (LWP) calculations in a general circulation model (GCM). In terms of spatial averaging, a linear relationship between albedo and cloud fraction is observed. For tropical locations outside the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), results of cloud fraction and albedo spatial averaging followed that of the stratus boxes containing few overcast scenes. Both the ideas of Coakley and Kedem, et al. apply. Within the ITCZ, the grid boxes tended to have the same statistical properties as stratus boxes containing many overcast scenes. Because different dynamical forcing mechanisms are present, it is difficult to devise a method for determining subgrid scale variations. Neither of the theories proposed by Kedem, et al. or Coakley works well for the boxes with numerous overcast scenes.

Ginger, Kathryn M.↗