Mapping Stellar Surfaces. II. An Interpretable Gaussian Process Model for Light Curves
The use of Gaussian processes (GPs) as models for astronomical time series data sets has recently become almost ubiquitous, given their ease of use and flexibility. In particular, GPs excel at marginalization over the stellar signal when the variability due to starspots is treated as a nuisance, as in exoplanet transit modeling. However, these effective models are less useful in cases where the starspot signal is of primary interest, since it is not obvious how the parameters of the GP relate to physical parameters like the spot size, contrast, and latitudinal distribution. Instead, it is common practice to explicitly model the effect of individual starspots on the light curve and attempt to infer their properties via optimization or posterior inference. Unfortunately, this process is ill-posed and often computationally intractable when applied to stars with more than a few spots and/or to ensembles of many stars. Here we derive a closed-form expression for a GP that describes the light curve of a rotating, evolving stellar surface conditioned on a given distribution of starspot sizes, contrasts, and latitudes. We demonstrate that this model is correctly calibrated, allowing one to robustly infer physical parameters of interest from one or more light curves, including the typical spot radii and latitudes. Our GP has far-ranging implications for understanding the variability and magnetic activity of stars from light curves and radial velocity measurements, as well as for modeling correlated noise in exoplanet searches. Our implementation is efficient, user-friendly, and open-source, available in the package starry-process.