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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,297 records · Page 72
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1994

The Hubble Space Telescope Medium Deep Survey with the Wide Field and Planetary Camera. 1: Methodology and results on the field near 3C 273

We present results from the Medium Deep Survey (MDS), a Key Project using the Hubble Space Telescope (HST). Wide Field Camera (WFC) images of random fields have been taken in 'parallel mode' with an effective resolution of 0.2 sec full width at half maximum (FWHM) in the V(F555W) and I(F785LP) filters. The exposures presented here were targeted on a field away from 3C 273, and resulted in approximately 5 hr integration time in each filter. Detailed morphological structure is seen in galaxy images with total integrated magnitudes down to V approximately = 22.5 and I approximately = 21.5. Parameters are estimated that best fit the observed galaxy images, and 143 objects are identified (including 23 stars) in the field to a fainter limiting magnitude of I approximately = 23.5. We outline the extragalactic goals of the HST Medium Deep Survey, summarize our basic data reduction procedures, and present number (magnitude) counts, a color-magnitude diagram for the field, surface brightness profiles for the brighter galaxies, and best-fit half-light radii for the fainter galaxies as a function of apparent magnitude. A median galaxy half-light radius of 0.4 sec is measured, and the distribution of galaxy sizes versus magnitude is presented. We observe an apparent deficit of galaxies with half-light radii between approximately 0.6 sec and 1.5 sec, with respect to standard no-evolution or mild evolution cosmological models. An apparent excess of compact objects (half-light radii approximately 0.1 sec) is also observed with respect to those models. Finally, we find a small excess in the number of faint galaxy pairs and groups with respect to a random low-redshift field sample.

Griffiths, R. E.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Ultra Small Aperture Terminal: System Design and Test Results

The Ultra Small Aperture Terminal (USAT) has been developed to test and demonstrate remote and broadcast satcom applications via the Advanced Communications Technology Satellite (ACTS). The design of these ground stations emphasize small size, low power consumption, portable and rugged terminals. Each ground station includes several custom design parts such as 35 cm diameter antenna, 1/4 Watt transmitter with built-in upconverter, and 4.0 dB Noise Figure (NF) receiver with built-in downconverter. In addition, state-of-the-art commercial parts such as highly stable ovenized crystal oscillators and dielectric resonator oscillators are used in the ground station design. Presented in this paper are system level design description, performance, and sample applications.

Sohn, Philip Y.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Particle-Gas Dynamics in the Midplane of a Protoplanetary Nebula

In this paper, we study the stage of planetary formation during which the particulate material is still dispersed as centimeter-to-meter sized primordial aggregates. During this stage, particles are able to settle toward the midplane into a layer of mass density comparable to or much greater than that of the gas. Nonlinear, coupled interactions between the particles and the nebula gas become significant and ultimately determine the vertical profiles of the particle density and the mean velocities of the particles and the nearby gas. This is the environment in which the earliest planetesimals probably form. Our numerical models rely on the Reynolds averaged Navier-Stokes equations for the gas and particles and are fully viscous and turbulent (and, for the particles. compressible). Our turbulence modeling uses a Prandtl local shear parametrization, validated by laboratory experiments. We have developed a new model for particle diffusion involving the profile of the nebula gas turbulence and the particle Schmidt number, which is a function of particle size and density. We model a cool, quiescent nebula at 1 AU (280 K) and 10 AU (90 K) and a higher temperature stage (1000 K) at 1 AU. Our main results include: (a) rapid accretion of planetesimals by gravitationally unstable fragmentation on an orbital time scale (the 'Goldreich-Ward instability') is unlikely to occur until objects have already accreted by some other process to the mass of the largest known meteorite samples, if at all; (b) from 'seeds' as small as 10 m, growth of 10- to 100-km planetesimals can proceed rapidly by drift-augmented accretion in the particle-rich midplane with orbital decay of about 1% for the growing planetesimals; (c) outward transport of vapor and small entrained chips can account for significant radial compositional and mineralogical mixing in primitive meteorite parent bodies. Other implications may be drawn concerning particle random collisional velocities and the time scales of midplane turbulence.

Cuzzi, Jeffrey N.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Photometric Observations of 6000 Stars in the Cygnus Field

A small photometer to detect transits by extrasolar planets has been assembled and is being tested at Lick Observatory on Mt. Hamilton, California. The Vulcan photometer is constructed from a 30 cm focal length, F/2.5 AeroEktar reconnaissance lens and Photometrics PXL16800 CCD camera. A spectral filter is used to confine the pass band from 480 to 763 mn. It simultaneously monitors 6000 stars brighter than 12th magnitude within a single star field in the galactic plane. When the data are folded and phased to discover low amplitude transits, the relative precision of one-hour samples is about 1 part per thousand (10 x l0(exp -3)) for many of the brighter stars. This precision is sufficient to find jovian-size planets orbiting solar-like stars, which have signal amplitudes from 5 to 30 x l0(exp -3) depending on the inflation of the planet and the size of the star. Based on the frequency of giant inner-planets discovered by Doppler-velocity method, one or two planets should be detectable in a rich star field. The goal of the observations is to obtain the sizes of giant extrasolar planets in short-period orbits and to combine these with masses determined from Doppler velocity measurements to determine the densities of these planets. A further goal is to compare the measured planetary diameters with those predicted from theoretical models. From August 10 through September 30 of 1998, a forty nine square degree field in the Cygnus constellation centered at RA and DEC of 19 hr 47 min, +36 deg 55 min was observed. Useful data were obtained on twenty-nine nights. Nearly fifty stars showed some evidence of transits with periods between 0.3 and 8 days. Most had amplitudes too large to be associated with planetary transits. However, several stars showed low amplitude transits. The data for several transits of each of these two stars have been folded and been folded into 30 minute periods. Only Cygl433 shows any evidence of a flattened bottom that is expected when a small object transits a much larger primary. However when high-resolution spectra were obtained for both stars, the stars were found to be double-lined binaries so similar in size as to have indistinguishable transit depths. The low amplitude of the transits is explained if the stellar orbital planes are tipped approximately 5 degrees from the line of sight causing both binaries to show grazing transits. The two absorption lines, due to the H(sub beta) feature in each star, are apparent and indicate the presence of a binary system with similar components.

Borucki, W.↗
DOE OSTI2017

Critical Assessment of Photoionization Efficiency Measurements for Characterization of Soot-Precursor Species

We present a critical evaluation of photoionization efficiency (PIE) measurements coupled with aerosol mass spectrometry for the identification of condensed soot-precursor species extracted from a premixed atmospheric-pressure ethylene/oxygen/nitrogen flame. Definitive identification of isomers by any means is complicated by the large number of potential isomers at masses likely to comprise particles at flame temperatures. This problem is compounded using PIE measurements by the similarity in ionization energies and PIE-curve shapes among many of these isomers. Nevertheless, PIE analysis can provide important chemical information. For example, our PIE curves show that neither pyrene nor fluoranthene alone can describe the signal from C 16 H 10 isomers and that coronene alone cannot describe the PIE signal from C 24 H 12 species. A linear combination of the reference PIE curves for pyrene and fluoranthene yields good agreement with flame-PIE curves measured at 202 u, which is consistent with pyrene and fluoranthene being the two major C 16 H 10 isomers in the flame samples, but does not provide definite proof. The suggested ratio between fluoranthene and pyrene depends on the sampling conditions. We calculated the values of the adiabatic-ionization energy (AIE) of 24 C 16 H 10 isomers. Despite the small number of isomers considered, the calculations show that the differences in AIEs between several of the isomers can be smaller than the average thermal energy at room temperature. The calculations also show that PIE analysis can sometimes be used to separate hydrocarbon species into those that contain mainly aromatic rings and those that contain significant aliphatic content for species sizes investigated in this study. Our calculations suggest an inverse relationship between AIE and the number of aromatic rings. We have demonstrated that further characterization of precursors can be facilitated by measurements that test species volatility.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Identifying Strain Stacking Boundaries between Multiphase Domains in Atomically Thin Two-Dimensional Magnets

Stacking engineering of van der Waals materials is an important strategy to control the materials’ properties, such as electronic correlations, ferroelectricity, and layer-dependent two-dimensional magnetism. A timely testbed for the study of the latter is atomically thin chromium trihalides (CrX 3 , X = Cl, Br, I). Notably, by understanding the sliding mechanism between different stacking sequences, control of the stacking arrangement, and thus magnetic properties in CrX 3 , can be achieved. Such insight, however, is currently lacking. Here, in this study, advanced electron microscopy methods are used to identify multiple stacking sequences corresponding to different bulk phases in atomically thin CrX 3 (X = Cl and Br) down to bilayer thickness and with lateral domain sizes as small as tens of nanometers. Indications of nanometer scale transitions and interactions at the stacking boundaries are found, including a universally preferred sliding direction that is consistent with density functional theory calculations and the strain fields at lateral heterostructure boundaries. This study demonstrates the necessity to consider local stacking structures when interpreting averaged magnetic properties measured with macroscale probes. Additionally, the preferred sliding direction insight from this study provides a strategy to control stacking sequence in atomically thin CrX 3 samples during the exfoliation and sample fabrication process.

DFT calculations↗
DOE OSTI2024

A machine learning approach for determining temperature-dependent bandgap of metal oxides utilizing Allen–Heine–Cardona theory and O’Donnell model parameterization

To evaluate the high temperature sensing properties of metal oxide and perovskite materials suitable for use in combustion environments, it is necessary to understand the temperature dependence of their bandgaps. Although such temperature-driven changes can be calculated via the Allen–Heine–Cardona (AHC) theory, which assesses electron–phonon coupling for the bandgap correction at given temperatures, this approach is computationally demanding. Another approach to predict bandgap temperature-dependence is the O’Donnell model, which uses analytical expressions with multiple fitting parameters that require bandgap information at 0 K. This work employs data-driven Gaussian process regression (GPR) to predict the parameters employed in the O’Donnell model from a set of physical features. We use a sample of 54 metal oxides for which density functional theory has been performed to calculate the bandgap at 0 K, and the AHC calculations have been carried out to determine the shift in the bandgap at non-zero temperatures. As the AHC calculations are impractical for high-throughput screening of materials, the developed GPR model attempts to alleviate this issue by predicting the O'Donnell parameters purely from physical features. To mitigate the reliability issues arising from the very small size of the dataset, we apply a Bayesian technique to improve the generalizability of the data-driven models as well as quantify the uncertainty associated with the predictions. The method captures well the overall trend of the O’Donnell parameters with respect to a reduced feature set obtained by transforming the available physical features. Quantifying the associated uncertainty helps us understand the reliability of the predictions of the O’Donnell parameters and, therefore, the bandgap as a function of temperature for any novel material.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS1980

Estimation of within-stratum variance for sample allocation: Foreign commodity production forecasting

The problem of determining the stratum variances required for an optimum sample allocation for remotely sensed crop surveys is investigated with emphasis on an approach based on the concept of stratum variance as a function of the sampling unit size. A methodology using the existing and easily available information of historical statistics is developed for obtaining initial estimates of stratum variances. The procedure is applied to variance for wheat in the U.S. Great Plains and is evaluated based on the numerical results obtained. It is shown that the proposed technique is viable and performs satisfactorily with the use of a conservative value (smaller than the expected value) for the field size and with the use of crop statistics from the small political division level.

Chhikara, R. S.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Studies on cosmogenic nuclides in meteorites with regard to an application as potential depth indicators

Measurements of stable and radioactive spallation products in meteorites allow to investigate their histories, especially with respect to the exposure to galactic cosmic ray particles and the pre-atmospheric size of the object. While the concentrations of spallation products lead to the determination of exposure and terrestrial ages, production rate ratios are characteristic for the location of the sample in the meteorite. So, one of the aims of this investigation on meteorites is to obtain depth indicators from suitable pairs of cosmogenic nuclides. Because of the different depth profiles for nuclide productions it is necessary to determine the concentrations of a larger number of spallation products in aliquots of a single small sample. Such same sample measurements of Be-10 and light noble gases were performed on 15 ordinary chondrites (7 H- and 8 L-chondrites. Be-10 was determined by accelerator mass spectrometry and the noble gases were measured by static mass spectrometry. The results are summarized and discussed.

Sarafin, R.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Effects of Hypergravity on Statocyst Development in Embryonic Aplysia californica

Aplysia californica is a marine gastropod mollusc with bilaterally paired statocysts as gravity-reccptor organs. Data from three experiments in which embryonic Aplysia californica were exposed to 2 x g arc discussed. The experimental groups were exposed to excess gravity until hatching (9-12 day), whereas control groups were maintained at normal gravity. Body diameter was measured before exposure to 2 x g. Statocyst, statolith and body diameter were each determined for samples of 20 embryos from each group on successive days. Exposure to excess gravity led to an increase in body size. Statocyst size was not affected by exposure to 2 x g. Statolith size decreased with treatment as indicated by smaller statolith-to-body ratios observed in the 2 x g group in all three experiments. Mean statolith diameter was significantly smaller for the 2 x g group in Experiment 1 but not in Experiments 2 and 3. Defective statocysts, characterized by very small or no statoliths, were found in the 2 x g group in Experiments 1 and 2.

Pedrozo, Hugo A.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Space Flown Rodent Liver RNA Sequencing Data for Machine Learning in Space Biology Research

High-throughput nucleic acid sequencing (DNA-seq, RNA-seq) has become widespread in biomedical research due to the growing availability and affordability of these assays. Data analysis has been accelerated in recent years by the adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) techniques by biomedical researchers. In space biology research, RNAseq datasets from space-flown experimental samples are critical for characterizing the gene expression aberrations associated with exposure to spaceflight stressors. However, space biological experiments tend to be very low sample size, so identifying proper AI/ML algorithms for sequencing data analysis is an ongoing challenge since these algorithms typically require large sample size. The NASA Science Mission Directorate (SMD) has started the “Benchmark Initiative for AI/ML”, focused on creating datasets meant for three main applications: 1) scientific benchmarking, which finds the best algorithm for a specific problem; 2) application benchmarking, which measures algorithm performance against a set of parameters; and 3) system benchmarking, which evaluates performance of hardware and software architecture. These scientific benchmarks consist of an AI-ready dataset and a reference implementation on a specific scientific question. In this work, we focused on generating standardized datasets to allow the scientific community to benchmark AI/ML algorithms in the domain of space biology. We present here a standardized, AI-ready, publicly available benchmark dataset for space biology RNA-seq data as a collaboration between the NASA AI4LS (Artificial Intelligence for Life Sciences) working group. and NASA’s SMD. This dataset consists of space-flown and ground control mouse liver found in the NASA GeneLab omics database. However, to amplify the small sample number (n=112 samples) for ML purposes, we employ Gaussian noise and a generative adversarial network to extend this dataset to 6,000 synthetic samples, matching the original gene expression characteristics.

James Casaletto↗
DOE OSTI2015

On the mesoscopic origins of high viscosities in some polyelectrolyte-surfactant mixtures

Oppositely charged polyelectrolyte (PE) surfactant mixtures allow the control of rheological parameters of a solution even at fairly low concentrations. For example, addition of 0.3 wt. % of anionic surfactant to a 1 wt. % solution of the polycation JR 400 increases the viscosity by 4 orders of magnitude. Recently, we could show that this increase is related to the formation of mixed, rod-like PE/surfactant aggregates which interconnect several polyelectrolyte chains [Hoffmann et al., Europhys. Lett. 104, 28001 (2013)]. In this paper, we refine our structural model of the aggregates to obtain a more consistent picture of their internal structure for different anionic surfactants. Combining small angle neutron scattering (SANS) and neutron spin-echo (NSE) allows us to determine the size of the aggregates. By comparing different contrasts, the internal structure of the aggregates can be elucidated and it is seen that the PE in the aggregates retains a relatively high freedom of movement. We proceeded to investigate the influence of the surfactant concentration and the surfactant type on structure and dynamics of the mixed aggregates. It is seen that the structural parameters of the aggregates depend very little on the surfactant concentration and headgroup. However, it is crucial to incorporate a sufficient amount of PE in the aggregates to increase the viscosity of the aggregates. By comparing viscous samples at 1 wt. % PE concentration with samples at a PE concentration of 0.3 wt. %, where no significant increase in viscosity is observed, we find that similar aggregates are formed already at this lower PE concentrations. However, the amount of PE incorporated in them is insufficient to interconnect several PE chains and therefore, they do not increase viscosity. So, our detailed investigation combining contrast variation SANS and NSE does not only allow to explain the viscosity behavior but also to deduced detailed information regarding the structures and the dynamics especially of the polyelectrolyte within the complexes.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2015

XCT analysis of the influence of melt strategies on defect population in Ti–6Al–4V components manufactured by Selective Electron Beam Melting

Selective Electron Beam Melting (SEBM) is a promising powder bed Additive Manufacturing technique for near-net-shape manufacture of high-value titanium components. However without post-manufacture HIPing the fatigue life of SEBM parts is currently dominated by the presence of porosity. In this study, the size, volume fraction, and spatial distribution of the pores in model samples have been characterised in 3D, using X-ray Computed Tomography, and correlated to the process variables. The average volume fraction of the pores (< 0.2%) was measured to be lower than that usually observed in competing processes, such as selective laser melting, but a strong relationship was found with the different beam strategies used to contour, and infill by hatching, a part section. The majority of pores were found to be small spherical gas pores, concentrated in the infill hatched region; this was attributed to the lower energy density and less focused beam used in the infill strategy allowing less opportunity for gas bubbles to escape the melt pool. Overall, increasing the energy density or focus of the beam was found to correlate strongly to a reduction in the level of gas porosity. Rarer irregular shaped pores were mostly located in the contour region and have been attributed to a lack of fusion between powder particles. - Graphical abstract: Display Omitted - Highlights: • Vast majority of defects detected were small spherical gas pores. • Gas bubbles trapped in the powder granules expand and coalesce in the melt pool. • Pores have been shown not to be randomly distributed. • Larger and deeper melt pools give more opportunity for gas to escape. • Minor changes to melt strategy result in significant reductions in pore population.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Intercomparison of Aerosol Instrumental Responses Using AEROTRAK, SMPS, and APS in a Simulated Building

In this work, three aerosol instruments were intercompared by using data collected from field campaigns in a simulated building environment during the last quarter of 2020 from October to December at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The three aerosol instruments—AeroTrak Model 9110, Scanning Mobility Particle Spectrometer (SMPS) 3080L + 3025A, and Aerodynamic Particle Sizer (APS) 3320—were manufactured by TSI Inc. to perform in situ measurements of particle number concentration in the air. These instruments were co-located in one room in which an aerosol generator was used to produce a defined aerosol population for the instruments to sample and detect in each campaign. The SMPS measured aerosol particles with diameters from 0.01 to 0.7 µm, APS measured aerosol particles with diameters from 0.5 to 20 µm, and AeroTrak measured aerosol particles with diameters from 0.1 to 10 µm. The results suggest that although AeroTrak is fast and easy to use, it does not provide measurements comparable with those obtained by SMPS and APS. The differences in particle counts were orders of magnitude in size (i.e., the AeroTrak data were unreasonably small in the tested scenarios). The results clearly indicate that AeroTrak should not be used in ambient applications in which the level of particle concentration is expected to be high. This would cause difficulty to a campaign in which the dilution factor is unknow a priori. The high particle concentration could also lead to an erroneous aerosol size distribution (e.g., a bimodal size distribution was measured as opposed to a single-mode one). The number concentration limit that AeroTrak is expected to run reliably (i.e., with a counting coincidence error less than ±10%) is approximately three to four per cubic centimeter. This suggests that the instrument is best used in a clean room environment, not in an ambient or indoor application, such as the Flexible Research Platform campaigns.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
NASA NTRS1985

Thermophoretically enhanced mass transport rates to solid and transpiration-cooled walls across turbulent (law-of-the-wall) boundary layers

Convective-diffusion mass transfer rate predictions are made for both solid wall and transpiration-cooled 'law-of-the-wall' nonisothermal turbulent boundary layers (TBLs), including the mechanism of thermophoresis, i.e., small particle mass transport 'down a temperature gradient'. The present calculations are confined to low mass-loading situations but span the entire particle size range from vapor molecules to particles near the onset of inertial ('eddy') impaction. It is shown that, when Sc is much greater than 1, thermophoresis greatly increases particle deposition rates to internally cooled solid walls, but only partially offsets the appreciable reduction in deposition rates associated with dust-free gas-transpiration-cooled surfaces. Thus, efficient particle sampling from hot dusty gases can be carried out using transpiration 'shielded' probe surfaces.

Gokoglu, Suleyman A.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Satellite Material Type and Phase Function Determination in Support of Orbital Debris Size Estimation

In performing debris surveys of deep-space orbital regions, the considerable volume of the area to be surveyed and the increased orbital altitude suggest optical telescopes as the most efficient survey instruments; but to proceed this way, methodologies for debris object size estimation using only optical tracking and photometric information are needed. Basic photometry theory indicates that size estimation should be possible if satellite albedo and shape are known. One method for estimating albedo is to try to determine the object's material type photometrically, as one can determine the albedos of common satellite materials in the laboratory. Examination of laboratory filter photometry (using Johnson BVRI filters) on a set of satellite material samples indicates that most material types can be separated at the 1-sigma level via B-R versus R-I color differences with a relatively small amount of required resampling, and objects that remain ambiguous can be resolved by B-R versus B-V color differences and solar radiation pressure differences. To estimate shape, a technique advanced by Hall et al. [1], based on phase-brightness density curves and not requiring any a priori knowledge of attitude, has been modified slightly to try to make it more resistant to the specular characteristics of different materials and to reduce the number of samples necessary to make robust shape determinations. Working from a gallery of idealized debris shapes, the modified technique identifies most shapes within this gallery correctly, also with a relatively small amount of resampling. These results are, of course, based on relatively small laboratory investigations and simulated data, and expanded laboratory experimentation and further investigation with in situ survey measurements will be required in order to assess their actual efficacy under survey conditions; but these techniques show sufficient promise to justify this next level of analysis.

Hejduk, M. D.↗
NASA NTRS2013

An Ensemble Recentering Kalman Filter with an Application to Argo Temperature Data Assimilation into the NASA GEOS-5 Coupled Model

A two-step ensemble recentering Kalman filter (ERKF) analysis scheme is introduced. The algorithm consists of a recentering step followed by an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) analysis step. The recentering step is formulated such as to adjust the prior distribution of an ensemble of model states so that the deviations of individual samples from the sample mean are unchanged but the original sample mean is shifted to the prior position of the most likely particle, where the likelihood of each particle is measured in terms of closeness to a chosen subset of the observations. The computational cost of the ERKF is essentially the same as that of a same size EnKF. The ERKF is applied to the assimilation of Argo temperature profiles into the OGCM component of an ensemble of NASA GEOS-5 coupled models. Unassimilated Argo salt data are used for validation. A surprisingly small number (16) of model trajectories is sufficient to significantly improve model estimates of salinity over estimates from an ensemble run without assimilation. The two-step algorithm also performs better than the EnKF although its performance is degraded in poorly observed regions.

Particle Filter↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Probabilistic Blast Damage Modeling Uncertainties and Sensitivities

Blast overpressure is the predominant source of ground damage posed by potentially hazardous asteroid strikes. Estimates of the extent, severity, and likelihoods of potential blast damage regions will be one of the key metrics needed to mount civil defense or disaster response plans in the face of an impending impact. However, there are many inherent sources of uncertainty in evaluating the damage, both in characterizing the properties of the incoming object and in the approaches used to model the entry/impact and resulting damage, which make it difficult to produce a single ‘accurate’ or ‘best guess’ prediction of ground damage. The current 2021 PDC hypothetical impact scenario poses a particular challenge due to its short warning time. The need for rapid disaster response to prepare for an immanent impact, combined with lack of observational opportunities to refine basic knowledge about the object’s basic size and properties, make understanding the range and relative likelihood of consequences particularly critical. The potential damage caused by these blasts can be evaluated using a range of modeling and simulation approaches and levels of fidelity. Fast-running engineering-level models can be used to run large numbers of probabilistically sampled cases covering wide variations of uncertain properties or parameters. High-fidelity simulations, on the other hand, can capture more detailed/accurate blast physics, but can only be performed for a small selection of specific cases, requiring many assumptions to be made about the initial object and its unpredictable entry/breakup characteristics. In order to provide a more complete picture of the potential threat for effective disaster response, both types of analysis need to be employed together. In this approach, high-fidelity simulations are used to refine and anchor engineering models, and the probabilistic engineering models are used to evaluate broad parameters spaces and guide selection of the most pertinent simulation cases for a given scenario. This presentation expands upon the probabilistic asteroid impact risk assessments being performed as part of the 2021 PDC hypothetical impact exercise, focusing on key aspects of blast damage modeling uncertainties and sensitivities. We review the current modeling and simulation approaches employed in the current assessment, compare the relative levels of uncertainty stemming from each main element of the problem (i.e., knowledge of the asteroid properties, modeling of the atmospheric entry/breakup and airburst, and estimates of the ground damage from the resulting blasts waves), and highlight any notable trends and sensitivities for the current scenario case.

SMD↗