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At least 1,297 records · Page 72

The Development of the New GEOS-MITgcm Atmosphere-Ocean Model for Coupled Data Assimilation System

During the last two plus decades, The Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) and Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) modeling groups have developed, respectively, atmosphere-only and ocean-only global general circulation models. These two models (GEOS and MITgcm) have demonstrated their data assimilation capabilities with the recent releases of the Modern Era Reanalysis for Research Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) atmospheric reanalysis and the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean, Version 4 (ECCO-v4) ocean (and sea ice) state estimate. Independently, the two modeling groups have also produced global atmosphere-only and ocean-only simulations with km-scale grid spacing which proved invaluable for process studies and for the development of satellite and in-situ sampling strategies.Recently, a new effort has been made to couple these two models and to leverage their data-assimilation and high resolution capabilities (i.e., eddy-permitting ocean, cloud-permitting atmosphere). The focus in the model development is put on sub-seasonal to decadal time scales. In this talk, I discuss the new coupled model and present some first coupled simulation results. This will include a high-resolution coupled GEOS-MIT simulation, whereby we have coupled a cubed-sphere-720 (~ 1/8°) configuration of the GEOS atmosphere to a lat-lon-cap-1080 (~ 1/12°) configuration of the MIT ocean. We compare near-surface diagnostics of this fully coupled ocean-atmosphere set-up to equivalent atmosphere-only and ocean-only simulations. In the comparisons we focus in particular on the differences in air-sea interactions between sea surface temperature (SST) and wind for the coupled and uncoupled simulations.

Strobach, Ehud↗

Impacts of climate change on subannual hydropower generation: a multi-model assessment of the United States federal hydropower plant

Abstract Hydropower is a low-carbon emission renewable energy source that provides competitive and flexible electricity generation and is essential to the evolving power grid in the context of decarbonization. Assessing hydropower availability in a changing climate is technically challenging because there is a lack of consensus in the modeling representation of key dynamics across scales and processes. Focusing on 132 US federal hydropower plants, in this study we evaluate the compounded impact of climate and reservoir-hydropower models’ structural uncertainties on monthly hydropower projections. In particular, instead of relying on one single regression-based hydropower model, we introduce another conceptual reservoir operations-hydropower model in the assessment framework. This multi-model assessment approach allows us to partition uncertainties associated with both climate and hydropower models for better clarity. Results suggest that while at least 70% of the uncertainties at the annual scale and 50% at the seasonal scale can be attributed to the choice of climate models, up to 50% of seasonal variability can be attributed to the choice of hydropower models, particularly in regions over the western US where the reservoir storage is substantial. The analysis identifies regions where multi-model assessments are needed and presents a novel approach to partition uncertainties in hydropower projections. Another outcome includes an updated evaluation of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5)-based federal hydropower projection, at the monthly scale and with a larger ensemble, which can provide a baseline for understanding future assessments based on CMIP6 and beyond.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Effective field theory for deformed odd-mass nuclei

We develop an effective field theory (EFT) for deformed odd-mass nuclei. These are described as an axially symmetric core to which a nucleon is coupled. In the coordinate system fixed to the core the nucleon is subject to an axially symmetric potential. Power counting is based on the separation of scales between low-lying rotations and higher-lying states of the core. In leading order, core and nucleon are coupled by universal derivative terms. These comprise a covariant derivative and gauge potentials which account for Coriolis forces and relate to Berry-phase phenomena. At leading order, the EFT combines the particle-rotor and Nilsson models. Here, we work out the EFT up to next-to-leading order and illustrate the results in 239 Pu and 187 Os . At leading order, odd-mass nuclei with rotational bandheads that are close in energy and differ by one unit of angular momentum are triaxially deformed. For bandheads that are well separated in energy, triaxiality becomes a subleading effect. The EFT developed in this paper presents a model-independent approach to the particle-rotor system that is capable of systematic improvement.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Quasiparticle Couplings in Transport of Heat, Charge, and Spin for Novel Energy Materials. Final report

Understanding the microscopic processes involved in the transport and conversion of energy from the atomic-scale to the meso-scale is critical for the development of next-generation materials for energy conversion and information processing. The goal of this program was to elucidate the couplings between microscopic degrees-of-freedom of atomic vibrations, spins, and electrons, which underpin heat, charge, and spin transport. This project systematically investigated these quasi-particle interactions, using state-of-the-art neutron scattering techniques, combined with first-principles computer simulations. This research program uncovered new information and understanding, which helps to rationalize materials properties based on the interplay of their atomistic degrees of freedom.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A comparison of theory and experiment for coupled rotor-body stability of a hingeless rotor model in hover

Three cases were selected for correlation from an experiment that examined the aeromechanical stability of a small-scale model of a hingeless rotor and fuselage in hover. The first case examined the stability of a configuration with 0 degree blade pitch so that coupling between dynamic modes was minimized. The second case was identical to the first except the blade pitch was set to 9 degrees which provides flap-lag coupling of the rotor modes. The third case had 9 degrees of blade pitch and also included negative pitch-lag coupling, and therefore was the most highly coupled configuration. Analytical calculations were made by Bell Helicopter Textron, Boeing Vertol, Hughes Helicopters, Sikorsky Aircraft, the U.S. Army Aeromechanics Laboratory, and NASA Ames Research Center and compared to some or all of the experimental cases. Overall, the correlation ranged from very poor-to-poor to good.

Bousman, William G.↗

ORNL Neutron Cross Section Measurements of 90 Zr NCSP ND-1 Task [Slides]

Luiz Leal's idea to integrate the experimental uncertainties, covariances, and sensitivities in this workflow and centralize the process at one location led to the creation of a cohesive tool for data testing. It has been practiced for more than two decades by the NCS and ND groups at ORNL. The development and use of the ORNL codes TSUNAMI and TSURFER within SCALE made it possible. Today, it has been extended to SAMINT which enables the coupling of differential and integral data evaluation in a continuous-energy framework.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

The interactive indoor-outdoor building energy modeling for enhancing the predictions of urban microclimates and building energy demands

There is a lack of an urban building energy modeling framework that considers the influence of surrounding buildings and local urban climate on building thermal performance. This can lead to inaccurate results since the thermal performance of individual buildings is heavily influenced by their surrounding built and climatic environment. This study establishes an interactive indoor-outdoor building energy modeling method to enhance the predictions of urban microclimates and building energy demands by coupling an urban physics model with a physics-based building energy model. Validation of the interactive coupling scheme uses field measurement datasets. Parametric simulation and analysis are conducted to understand the influence of the roof-to-canyon width ratio, canyon orientation, and ground vegetation fraction on canyon temperature, building energy consumption, and energy demand. Furthermore, the impacts of building energy model complexity (e.g., detailed vs. simplified building models) and coupling approaches on canyon temperature and building energy profiles are demonstrated using two case study buildings. In comparison with the one-way coupling approach, cooling energy consumption predicted with the dynamic two-way coupling approach varies by 3.5% and 0.5% for the detailed medium office building model and high-rise building model, respectively, and peak cooling demand varies by 8.4% and 7.0% for the detailed medium office building model and high-rise building model, respectively. Here this study also suggests that adopting a complex two-way coupling approach with environmental data exchange at various elevations is necessary for modeling tall buildings at the urban scale.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Disentangling the hydrological and hydraulic controls on streamflow variability in Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) V2 – a case study in the Pantanal region

Abstract. Streamflow variability plays a crucial role in shaping the dynamics and sustainability of Earth's ecosystems, which can be simulated and projected by a river routing model coupled with a land surface model. However, the simulation of streamflow at large scales is subject to considerable uncertainties, primarily arising from two related processes: runoff generation (hydrological process) and river routing (hydraulic process). While both processes have impacts on streamflow variability, previous studies only calibrated one of the two processes to reduce biases in the simulated streamflow. Calibration focusing only on one process can result in unrealistic parameter values to compensate for the bias resulting from the other process; thus other water-related variables remain poorly simulated. In this study, we performed several experiments with the land and river components of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) over the Pantanal region to disentangle the hydrological and hydraulic controls on streamflow variability in coupled land–river simulations. Our results show that the generation of subsurface runoff is the most important factor for streamflow variability contributed by the runoff generation process, while floodplain storage effect and main-channel roughness have significant impacts on streamflow variability through the river routing process. We further propose a two-step procedure to robustly calibrate the two processes together. The impacts of runoff generation and river routing on streamflow are appropriately addressed with the two-step calibration, which may be adopted by developers of land surface and earth system models to improve the modeling of streamflow.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Particle Effects On The Extinction And Ignition Of Flames In Normal- And Micro-Gravity

Reacting dusty flows have been studied to lesser extent than pure gas phase flows and sprays. Particles can significantly alter the ignition, burning and extinction characteristics of the gas phase due to the dynamic, thermal, and chemical couplings between the phases. The understanding of two-phase flows can be attained in stagnation flow configurations, which have been used to study spray combustion [e.g. 1] as well as reacting dusty flows [e.g. 2]. The thermal coupling between inert particles and a gas, as well as the effect of gravity, were studied in Ref. 3. It was also shown that the gravity can substantially affect parameters such as the particle velocity, number density, mass flux, and temperature. In Refs. 4 and 5, the effects of inert particles on the extinction of strained premixed and nonpremixed flames were studied both experimentally and numerically at 1-g and m-g. It was shown that large particles can cool flames more effectively than smaller particles. The effects of flame configuration and particle injection orientation were also addressed. It was shown that it was not possible to obtain a simple and still meaningful scaling that captured all the pertinent physics due to the complexity of the couplings between parameters. Also, the cooling by particles is more profound in the absence of gravity as gravity works to reduce the particle number density in the neighborhood of the flame. The efforts were recently shifted towards the understanding of the effects of combustible particles on extinction [6], the gas-phase ignition by hot particle injection [7], and the hot gas ignition of flames in the presence of particles that are not hot enough to ignite the gas phase by themselves.

Andac, M. G.↗

Modeling the topographic influence on aboveground biomass using a coupled model of hillslope hydrology and ecosystem dynamics

Abstract. Topographic heterogeneity and lateral subsurface flow at the hillslope scale of ≤1 km may have outsized impacts on tropical forest through their impacts on water available to plants under water-stressed conditions. However, vegetation dynamics and finer-scale hydrologic processes are not concurrently represented in Earth system models. In this study, we integrate the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land model (ELM) that includes the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES), with a three-dimensional hydrology model (ParFlow) to explicitly resolve hillslope topography and subsurface flow and perform numerical experiments to understand how hillslope-scale hydrologic processes modulate vegetation along water availability gradients at Barro Colorado Island (BCI), Panama. Our simulations show that groundwater table depth (WTD) can play a large role in governing aboveground biomass (AGB) when drought-induced tree mortality is triggered by hydraulic failure. Analyzing the simulations using random forest (RF) models, we find that the domain-wide simulated AGB and WTD can be well predicted by static topographic attributes, including surface elevation, slope, and convexity, and adding soil moisture or groundwater table depth as predictors further improves the RF models. Different model representations of mortality due to hydraulic failure can change the dominant topographic driver for the simulated AGB. Contrary to the simulations, the observed AGB in the well-drained 50 ha forest census plot within BCI cannot be well predicted by the RF models using topographic attributes and observed soil moisture as predictors, suggesting other factors such as nutrient status may have a larger influence on the observed AGB. The new coupled model may be useful for understanding the diverse impact of local heterogeneity by isolating the water availability and nutrient availability from the other external and internal factors in ecosystem modeling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Overview of the MOSAiC expedition—Atmosphere

With the Arctic rapidly changing, the needs to observe, understand, and model the changes are essential. To support these needs, an annual cycle of observations of atmospheric properties, processes, and interactions were made while drifting with the sea ice across the central Arctic during the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition from October 2019 to September 2020. An international team designed and implemented the comprehensive program to document and characterize all aspects of the Arctic atmospheric system in unprecedented detail, using a variety of approaches, and across multiple scales. These measurements were coordinated with other observational teams to explore cross-cutting and coupled interactions with the Arctic Ocean, sea ice, and ecosystem through a variety of physical and biogeochemical processes. This overview outlines the breadth and complexity of the atmospheric research program, which was organized into 4 subgroups: atmospheric state, clouds and precipitation, gases and aerosols, and energy budgets. Atmospheric variability over the annual cycle revealed important influences from a persistent large-scale winter circulation pattern, leading to some storms with pressure and winds that were outside the interquartile range of past conditions suggested by long-term reanalysis. Similarly, the MOSAiC location was warmer and wetter in summer than the reanalysis climatology, in part due to its close proximity to the sea ice edge. The comprehensiveness of the observational program for characterizing and analyzing atmospheric phenomena is demonstrated via a winter case study examining air mass transitions and a summer case study examining vertical atmospheric evolution. Overall, the MOSAiC atmospheric program successfully met its objectives and was the most comprehensive atmospheric measurement program to date conducted over the Arctic sea ice. The obtained data will support a broad range of coupled-system scientific research and provide an important foundation for advancing multiscale modeling capabilities in the Arctic.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Development of the GEOS-MIT gcm Atmosphere-Ocean Model for Coupled Data Assimilation

During the last two plus decades, The Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) and Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) modeling groups have developed, respectively, atmosphere-only and ocean-only global general circulation models. These two models (GEOS and MIT-GCM (General Circulation Model)) have demonstrated their data assimilation capabilities with the recent releases of the Modern Era Reanalysis for Research Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) atmospheric reanalysis and the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean, Version 4 (ECCO-v4) ocean (and sea ice) state estimate. Independently, the two modeling groups have also produced global atmosphere-only and ocean-only simulations with km-scale grid spacing which proved invaluable for process studies and for the development of satellite and in-situ sampling strategies. Recently, a new effort has been made to couple these two models and to leverage their data-assimilation and high resolution capabilities (i.e., eddy-permitting ocean, cloud-permitting atmosphere). The focus in the model development is put on sub-seasonal to decadal time scales. In this talk, I discuss the new coupled model and present some first coupled simulation results. This will include a high-resolution coupled GEOS-MIT simulation, whereby we have coupled a cubed-sphere-720 (approximately 1/8 degrees) configuration of the GEOS atmosphere to a latitude-longitude-cap-1080 (approximately 1/12 degrees) configuration of the MIT ocean. We compare near-surface diagnostics of this fully coupled ocean-atmosphere set-up to equivalent atmosphere-only and ocean-only simulations. In the comparisons we focus in particular on the differences in air-sea interactions between sea surface temperature (SST) and wind for the coupled and uncoupled simulations.

Strobach, Ehud↗

ORNL Neutron Cross Section Measurements of 90 Zr NCSP ND-1 Task [Slides]

Luiz Leal's idea to integrate the experimental uncertainties, covariances, and sensitivities in the ND workflow and to centralize the process at one location created a cohesive tool for data testing. It has been practiced for more than two decades by the NCS and ND groups at ORNL. The development and use of the ORNL codes TSUNAMI and TSURFER within SCALE made it possible. Today, it has been extended to SAMINT, which enables the coupling of differential and integral data evaluation in a continuous-energy framework.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Finite-size effects in periodic coupled cluster calculations

Here, we provide the first rigorous study of the finite-size error in the simplest and representative coupled cluster theory, namely the coupled cluster doubles (CCD) theory, for gapped periodic systems. Given exact Hartree-Fock orbitals and their corresponding orbital energies, we demonstrate that the correlation energy obtained from the approximate CCD method, after a finite number of fixed-point iterations over the amplitude equation, exhibits a finite-size error scaling as $\mathcal{O}(N^{-\frac{1}{3}}_k)$. Here $N_k$ is the number of discretization points in the Brillouin zone and characterizes the system size. Under additional assumptions ensuring the convergence of the fixed-point iterations, we demonstrate that the CCD correlation energy also exhibits a finite-size error scaling as $\mathcal{O}(N^{-\frac{1}{3}}_k)$. Our analysis shows that the dominant error lies in the coupled cluster amplitude calculation, and the convergence of the finite-size error in energy calculation can be boosted to $\mathcal{O}(N^{-1}_k)$ with accurate amplitudes. This also provides the first proof of the scaling of the finite-size error in the third order Møller-Plesset perturbation theory (MP3) for periodic systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Low-cost calculation and analysis of 2D IR spectra of model diiron trinitrosyl complexes in the NO stretch region with vibrational perturbation theory

Two-dimensional infrared spectroscopy offers unique capabilities for probing vibrational coupling in complex metal–ligand systems. In this paper, we combine two-dimensional infrared spectroscopy with vibrational perturbation theory to investigate vibrational coupling in a diiron trinitrosyl complex across three stable redox states. Although these systems are challenging for electronic structure methods, we demonstrate that key features of experimental 2D IR spectra can be accurately reproduced using reduced-dimensional anharmonic calculations with a small harmonic frequency scaling. Analysis reveals that N–O stretching modes maintain high locality across all redox states, with coupling patterns that directly reflect variations in Fe–N bond strength. Using curvilinear coordinate analysis, we demonstrate these differences result from systematic changes in cubic anharmonic force constants rather than mode delocalization. Our results establish N–O stretches as sensitive probes of metal–ligand bonding strength, expanding the toolkit for studying biologically relevant nitrosyl complexes.

Moran, Hayden A. [Texas A&M University, College St↗

Stellar convection theory. III - Dynamical coupling of the two convection zones in A-type stars by penetrative motions

The thermal convection occurring over many density scale heights in an A-type star outer envelope, encompassing both the hydrogen and helium convectively unstable zones, is examined by means of anelastic modal equations. The single-mode anelastic equations for such compressible convection display strong overshooting of the motions into adjacent radiative zones, which would preclude diffusive separation of elements in the supposedly quiescent region between the two unstable zones. In addition, the anelastic solutions reveal that the two zones of convective instability are dynamically coupled by the overshooting motions. The two solutions that the nonlinear single-mode equations admit for the same horizontal wavelength are distinguished by the sense of the vertical velocity at the center of the three-dimensional cell. It is suggested that strong horizontal shear flows should be present just below the surface of the star, and that the large-scale motions extending into the stable atmosphere would appear mainly as horizontal flows.

Latour, J.↗

Sea Ice and Cloud Processes Mediating Compensation between Atmospheric and Oceanic Meridional Heat Transports across the CMIP6 Preindustrial Control Experiment

Abstract Bjerknes compensation (BJC) refers to the anticorrelation observed between atmospheric and oceanic heat transport (AHT/OHT) variability, particularly on decadal to longer time scales that may be important to the predictability of the climate system. This study investigates the spread in BJC across fully coupled simulations of phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and critical processes (particularly related to sea ice and clouds) that may contribute to that spread. BJC on decadal to longer time scales is confirmed across all the simulations evaluated, and it is strongest in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) between 60° and 70°N. At these latitudes, BJC appears to be primarily driven by the exchange of turbulent fluxes (sensible and latent) in the Greenland, Iceland, and Barents Seas. Metrics to break down how sea ice and clouds uniquely modify the radiative balance of the polar atmosphere during anomalous OHT events are presented. These metrics quantify the impacts of sea ice and clouds on surface and top of atmosphere (latent, sensible, longwave, and shortwave radiative) energy fluxes. Cloud responses tend to counter the clear sky impacts over the Marginal Ice Zone (MIZ). It is further shown that the degree of BJC present in a simulation at high latitudes is heavily influenced by the sensitivity of the sea ice to OHT, which is most influential over the MIZ. These results are qualitatively robust across models and explain the intermodel spread in NH BJC in the preindustrial control experiment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

On the subject of large-scale pool fires and turbulent boundary layer interactions

The role to which a realistic inflow turbulent boundary layer (TBL) influences transient and mean large-scale pool fire quantities of interest (QoIs) is numerically investigated. High-fidelity, low-Mach large-eddy simulations that activate low-dissipation, unstructured numerics are conducted using an unsteady flamelet combustion modeling approach with mutiphysics coupling to soot and participating media radiation transport. Three inlet profile configurations are exercised for a large-scale, high-aspect rectangular pool that is oriented perpendicular to the flow direction: a time-varying, TBL inflow profile obtained from a periodic precursor simulation, the time-mean of the transient TBL, and a steady power-law inflow profile that replicates the mean TBL crosswind velocity of 10.0 m/s at a vertical height of 10 m. Results include both qualitative transient flame evolution and quantitative flame shape with ground-level temperature and convective/radiative heat flux profiles. While transient fire events, which are driven by burst-sweep TBL coupling, such as blow-off and reattachment are vastly different in the TBL case (contributing to increased root mean square QoI fluctuation prediction and disparate flame lengths), mean surface QoI magnitudes are similar. Quadrant analysis demonstrates that the TBL configuration modifies burst-sweep phenomena at windward pool locations, while leeward recovery is found. In conclusion, positive fluctuations of convective heat flux correlate with fast moving fluid away from the pool surface due to intermittent combustion events.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗