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At least 1,297 records · Page 72

Threatened salmon rely on a rare life history strategy in a warming landscape

We report that rare phenotypes and behaviours within a population are often overlooked, yet they may serve a heightened role for species imperilled by rapid warming. In threatened spring-run Chinook salmon spawning at the southern edge of the species range, we show late-migrating juveniles are critical to cohort success in years characterized by droughts and ocean heatwaves. Late migrants rely on cool river temperatures over summer, increasingly rare due to the combined effects of warming and impassable dams. Despite the dominance of late migrants, other strategies played an important role in many years. Our results suggest that further loss of phenotypic diversity will have critical impacts on population persistence in a warming climate. Predicted thermally suitable river conditions for late migrants will shrink rapidly in the future and will be largely relegated above impassable dams. Reconnecting diverse habitat mosaics to support phenotypic diversity will be integral to the long-term persistence of this species.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Iron as a driver of organic carbon fate in permafrost regions

Iron (Fe) and its biogeochemical interactions with organic carbon (OC) exert critical controls over carbon storage and water quality across Arctic and sub-Arctic landscapes. Permafrost thaw affects Fe–organic carbon interactions by exposing thawed material and driving shifts in hydrologic regimes. Here we propose a conceptual framework describing how Fe–OC interactions respond to permafrost thaw and the implications for global carbon cycling. The framework builds on current understanding of hydrologically driven processes that are altered by permafrost thaw, including microbial Fe reduction that influences OC decomposition and carbon emissions; Fe cycling through redox transformations and sulfide oxidation; dissolution and reprecipitation of Fe–OC assemblages; and Fe export to river networks. We put forward four testable hypotheses—on topics from Fe supply to its role in soil OC storage and transfer to rivers—to advance understanding of the coupled environmental controls on pore-scale reactions (that is, microscale reactions at mineral–water–microorganism interfaces) that are central to global Fe–OC cycling. Our framework highlights how soil-profile- and landscape-scale processes, such as hydrologic connectivity and redox dynamics, regulate pore-scale Fe–OC reactions.

Herndon, Elizabeth [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000291945493)↗

Extreme flood return levels in a U.S. mid-Atlantic estuary using 40-year fluvial-coastal model simulations

Using an integrated watershed-coastal modeling framework, we conducted long-term historical simulations (1980-2019) of fluvial and coastal flooding in the Delaware Bay and River, a vulnerable estuarine system in the U.S., at high spatial resolutions. By applying process-based models, we generated physically consistent and spatially detailed estimates of estuarine, riverine, and surge-driven extreme water level compared to previous studies that used field data only. We then evaluated changes in the magnitude of flood events using the 40-year simulations and detrended Floodwater Depth values with stationary extreme value analysis. Our detailed assessment of spatial-varying extreme values revealed how different flood-generation mechanisms can dominate various zones in the estuary. The datasets produced through this work will be valuable for long-term flood hazard mitigation planning in coastal communities in the Delaware Bay and River region. Additionally, this work will serve as a benchmark for other coastal flood hazard modeling communities worldwide, aiding them in systematically modeling long-term and continuous extreme flood events.

Coastal and Riverine Flooding↗

Simultaneous attenuation of trace organics and change in organic matter composition in the hyporheic zone of urban streams

Trace organic compounds (TrOCs) enter rivers with discharge of treated wastewater. These effluents can contain high loads of dissolved organic matter (DOM). In a 48 h field study, we investigated changes in molecular composition of seven DOM compound classes (FTICR-MS) and attenuation of 17 polar TrOCs in a small urban stream receiving treated wastewater. Correlations between TrOCs and DOM were used to identify simultaneous changes in surface water and the hyporheic zone. Changes in TrOC concentrations in surface water ranged between a decrease of 29.2% for methylbenzotriazole and an increase of 152.2% for the transformation product gabapentin-lactam. In the hyporheic zone, only decreasing TrOC concentrations were observed, ranging from 4.9% for primidone to 93.8% for venlafaxine . TrOC attenuation coincided with a decline of molecular diversity of easily biodegradable DOM compound classes while molecular diversity of poorly biodegradable DOM compound classes increased. This concurrence indicates similar or linked attenuation pathways for biodegradable DOM and TrOCs. Strong correlations between TrOCs and DOM compound classes as well as high attenuation of TrOCs primarily occurred in the hyporheic zone. This suggests high potential for DOM turnover and TrOC mitigation in rivers if hyporheic exchange is sufficient.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Bioremediation of copper in sediments from a constructed wetland ex situ with the novel bacterium Cupriavidus basilensis SRS

The H-02 constructed wetland was designed to remove metals (primarily copper and zinc) to treat building process water and storm water runoff from multiple sources associated with the Tritium Facility at the DOE-Savannah River Site, Aiken, SC. The concentration of Cu and Zn in the sediments has increased over the lifetime of the wetland and is a concern. A bioremediation option was investigated at the laboratory scale utilizing a newly isolated bacterium of the copper metabolizing genus Cupriavidus isolated from Tim’s Branch Creek, a second-order stream that eventually serves as a tributary to the Savannah River, contaminated with uranium and other metals including copper, nickel, and mercury. Cupriavidus basilensis SRS is a rod-shaped, gram-negative bacterium which has been shown to have predatory tendencies. The isolate displayed resistance to the antibiotics ofloxacin, tetracycline, ciprofloxacin, select fungi, as well as Cu 2+ and Zn 2+ . Subsequent ribosomal sequencing demonstrated a 100% confidence for placement in the genus Cupriavidus and a 99.014% match to the C. basilensis type strain. When H-02 wetland samples were inoculated with Cupriavidus basilensis SRS samples showed significant (p < 0.05) decrease in Cu 2+ concentrations and variability in Zn 2+ concentrations. Over the 72-h incubation there were no significant changes in the inoculate densities (10 6 –10 8 cells/ML) indicating Cupriavidus basilensis SRS resiliency in this environment. This research expands our understanding of the Cupriavidus genus and demonstrates the potential for Cupriavidus basilensis SRS to bioremediate sites impacted with heavy metals, most notably copper.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Biogeochemical and community ecology responses to the wetting of non-perennial streams

Transitions between dry and wet hydrologic states are the defining characteristic of non-perennial rivers and streams, which constitute the majority of the global river network. Although past work has focused on stream drying characteristics, there has been less focus on how hydrology, ecology and biogeochemistry respond and interact during stream wetting. Wetting mechanisms are highly variable and can range from dramatic floods and debris flows to gradual saturation by upwelling groundwater. This variation in wetting affects ecological and biogeochemical functions, including nutrient processing, sediment transport and the assembly of biotic communities. Here, in this work, we synthesize evidence describing the hydrological mechanisms underpinning different types of wetting regimes, the associated biogeochemical and organismal responses, and the potential scientific and management implications for downstream ecosystems. This combined multidisciplinary understanding of wetting dynamics in non-perennial streams will be key to predicting and managing for the effects of climate change on non-perennial ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Predicting turbulent wake flow of marine hydrokinetic turbine arrays in large-scale waterways via physics-enhanced convolutional neural networks

We present a physics-enhanced convolutional neural network (PECNN) algorithm for reconstructing the mean flow and turbulence statistics in the wake of marine hydrokinetic (MHK) turbine arrays installed in large-scale meandering rivers. The algorithm embeds the mass and momentum conservation equations into the loss function of the PECNN algorithm to improve the physical realism of the reconstructed flow fields. The PECNN is trained using large eddy simulation (LES) results of the wake flow of a single row of turbines in a virtual meandering river. Subsequently, the trained PECNN is applied to predict the wake flow of MHK turbines with arrangements and positionings different than those considered during the training process. The PECNN predictions are validated using the results of separately performed LES. The results show that the PECNN algorithm can accurately predict the wake flow of MHK turbine farms at a small fraction of the cost of LES. The PECNN can improve the accuracy by around 1% and reduce the physical constraint indices by around 50% compared to the CNN without physical constraints. This work underscores the potential of PECNN to develop reduced-order models for control co-design and optimization of MHK turbine arrays in natural riverine environments.

Mechanics↗

Ecosystem consequences of a nitrogen-fixing proto-organelle

Microscale symbioses can be critical to ecosystem functions, but the mechanisms of these interactions in nature are often cryptic. Here, we use a combination of stable isotope imaging and tracing to reveal carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) exchanges among three symbiotic primary producers that fuel a salmon-bearing river food web. Bulk isotope analysis, nanoSIMS (secondary ion mass spectrometry) isotope imaging, and density centrifugation for quantitative stable isotope probing enabled quantification of organism-specific C- and N-fixation rates from the subcellular scale to the ecosystem. After winters with riverbed-scouring floods, the macroalga Cladophora glomerata uses nutrients in spring runoff to grow streamers up to 10 m long. During summer flow recession, riverine N concentrations wane and Cladophora becomes densely epiphytized by three species of Epithemia, diatoms with N-fixing endosymbionts (proto-organelles) descended from a free-living Crocosphaera cyanobacterium. Over summertime epiphyte succession on Cladophora, N-fixation rates increased as Epithemia spp. became dominant, Cladophora C-fixation declined to near zero, and Epithemia C-fixation increased. Carbon transfer to caddisflies grazing on Cladophora with high densities of Epithemia was 10-fold higher than C transfer to caddisflies grazing Cladophora with low Epithemia loads. In response to demand for N, Epithemia allocates high levels of newly fixed C to its endosymbiont. Consequently, these endosymbionts have the highest rates of C and N accumulation of any taxon in this tripartite symbiosis during the biologically productive season and can produce one of the highest areal rates of N-fixation reported in any river ecosystem.

Marks, Jane C. [Northern Arizona Univ., Flagstaff,↗

Catalytic Effects of Silver in Iodine Reactors for Dissolved Used Nuclear Fuel

The dissolution of used nuclear fuel generates a variety of off-gasses including flammable hydrogen and other species that are a concern for environmental release. The H-Canyon facility at the Savannah River Site is currently dissolving aluminum-clad research reactor fuel from material test reactors and the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) using a mercury-catalyzed nitric acid flowsheet. Savannah River National Laboratory recently developed and deployed a Raman spectrometer to monitor the off-gas stream from the dissolution process. Results from these measurements indicated a lack of the expected hydrogen, nitrous oxide, and nitric oxide in the off-gas stream. It was proposed that the silver on the silver nitrate–coated berl saddles present in the reactors for iodine capture were acting as a catalytic hydrogen recombiner. Nitric oxide is readily oxidized to nitrogen dioxide under normal conditions, but it was unclear what happened to the nitrous oxide. A laboratory-scale iodine reactor was assembled and filled with silver nitrate–coated berl saddles to help ascertain the fate of nitrous oxide and hydrogen. Testing with this laboratory-scale reactor observed the recombination of hydrogen when a simulated dissolver off-gas was passed through the reactor containing silver nitrate–coated berl saddles at the approximate temperatures seen in H-Canyon. However, the nitrous oxide concentration was unchanged, suggesting a more complex process occurring within the off-gas stream before it reaches the iodine reactors at H-Canyon.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Tritium Aging Effects on Fracture Toughness of Stainless Steel Weldments

The long-term embrittlement effects of tritium and decay helium on the structural properties of stainless steels have been studied for years at Savannah River to provide required data for establishing safe operating conditions and lifetimes of pressure vessels used to contain tritium gas. In this study, the fracture toughness properties of the longest-aged tritium-precharged stainless-steel base metals and weldments tested at Savannah River were measured and compared to earlier results. The fracture toughness values were the lowest recorded here for tritium-exposed stainless steel. As-forged and as-welded specimens were thermally precharging with tritium gas at 34.5 MPa and 623 K, then aged for up to 17 years to buildin decay helium prior to testing. ASTM J-Integral fracture mechanics analyses, transmission electron microscopy (TEM), and small angle neutron scattering (SANS) examinations were conducted to characterize the effects of tritium and its radioactive decay product, helium-3. Results show that the fracture toughness values were reduced to less than 2-4% of the as-forged values for specimens with more than 1300 appm helium from tritium decay. The trend of decreasing fracture toughness values with increasing helium content was consistent with earlier observations, and the data show that Type 304L stainless steel is more resistant to tritium-induced cracking than Type 21-6-9 stainless at similar decay helium levels. The fracture toughness properties of long-aged weldments were also affected, but the reductions were not as severe over time because weldments did not retain as much tritium as did the base metals. TEM observations were used to characterize the effects of decay helium bubbles on the deformation substructures, but nanometer-sized helium bubbles were not easily resolved because of high dislocation densities within the forged microstructures. SANS results are presented that suggest the technique can provide information on decay helium bubble size, spacing, and distribution in these steels.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Magnetic fluctuations and the spin–orbit interaction in Mott insulating CoO

Motivated by the presence of an unquenched orbital angular momentum in CoO, a team at Chalk River, including a recently hired research officer Roger Cowley, performed the first inelastic neutron scattering experiments on the classic Mott insulator. Despite identifying two magnon modes at the zone boundary, the team was unable to parameterise the low energy magnetic excitation spectrum below TN using conventional pseudo-bosonic approaches, instead achieving only qualitative agreement. It would not be for another 40 years that Roger, now at Oxford and motivated by the discovery of the high-Tc cuprate superconductors, would make another attempt at the parameterisation of the magnetic excitation spectrum that had previously alluded him at the start of his career. Upon his return to CoO, Roger found a system embroiled in controversy, with some of its most fundamental parameters still remaining undetermined. Faced with such a formidable task, Roger performed a series of inelastic neutron scattering experiments in the early 2010s on both CoO and a magnetically dilute structural analogue Mg 0.97 Co 0.03 O. These experiments would prove instrumental in the determination of both single-ion and cooperative magnetic parameters for CoO. Both these sets of parameters would eventually be used in a spin–orbit exciton model, developed by his longtime friend and collaborator Bill Buyers, to successfully parameterise the complex spectrum that both measured at Chalk River almost 50 years prior. The story of CoO is of one that has come full circle, one filled with both spectacular failures and intermittent, yet profound, little victories.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Water balance response of permafrost-affected watersheds to changes in air temperatures

Abstract Observations show increases in river discharge to the Arctic Ocean especially in winter over the last decades but the physical mechanisms driving these changes are not yet fully understood. We hypothesize that even in the absence of a precipitation increase, permafrost degradation alone can lead to increased annual river runoff. To test this hypothesis we perform 12 millennium-long simulations over an idealized hypothetical watershed (1 km 2 ) using a distributed, physically based water balance model (Water flow and Balance Simulation Model, WaSiM). The model is forced by both a hypothetical warming defined by an air temperature increase of 7.5 ∘ C over 100 years, and a corresponding cooling scenario. To assess model sensitivity we vary soil saturated hydraulic conductivity and lateral subsurface flow configuration. Under the warming scenario, changes in subsurface water transport due to ground temperature changes result in a 7%–14% increase in annual runoff accompanied by a 6%–20% decrease in evapotranspiration. The increase in runoff is most pronounced in winter. Hence, the simulations demonstrate that changes in permafrost characteristics due to climate warming and associated changes in evapotranspiration provide a plausible mechanism for the observed runoff increases in Arctic watersheds. In addition, our experiments show that when lateral subsurface moisture transport is not included, as commonly done in global-scale Earth System Models, the equilibrium water balance in response to the warming or cooling is similar to the water balance in simulations where lateral subsurface transport is included. However, the transient changes in water balance components prior to reaching equilibrium differ greatly between the two. For example, for high saturated hydraulic conductivity only when lateral subsurface transport is considered, a period of decreased runoff occurs immediately after the warming. This period is characterized by a positive change in soil moisture storage caused by the soil moisture deficit developed during prior cooling.

Debolskiy, Matvey V. (ORCID:0000000296343627)↗

A review of carbon monitoring in wet carbon systems using remote sensing

Carbon monitoring is critical for the reporting and verification of carbon stocks and change. Remote sensing is a tool increasingly used to estimate the spatial heterogeneity, extent and change of carbon stocks within and across various systems. We designate the use of the term wet carbon system to the interconnected wetlands, ocean, river and streams, lakes and ponds, and permafrost, which are carbon-dense and vital conduits for carbon throughout the terrestrial and aquatic sections of the carbon cycle. We reviewed wet carbon monitoring studies that utilize earth observation to improve our knowledge of data gaps, methods, and future research recommendations. To achieve this, we conducted a systematic review collecting 1622 references and screening them with a combination of text matching and a panel of three experts. The search found 496 references, with an additional 78 references added by experts. Our study found considerable variability of the utilization of remote sensing and global wet carbon monitoring progress across the nine systems analyzed. The review highlighted that remote sensing is routinely used to globally map carbon in mangroves and oceans, whereas seagrass, terrestrial wetlands, tidal marshes, rivers, and permafrost would benefit from more accurate and comprehensive global maps of extent. We identified three critical gaps and twelve recommendations to continue progressing wet carbon systems and increase cross system scientific inquiry.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Simulation of hydropower at subcontinental to global scales: a state-of-the-art review

Abstract Hydroelectric power is playing a new and often expanded role in the world’s major power grids, offering low carbon generating capacity in industrializing, dam-building economies while providing reserve and flexibility to co-manage fledgling wind and solar resources in high income countries. Driven by river flows, conventional hydropower is exposed to the vagaries of weather and climate, motivating drought and climate change hydropower impact studies at large spatial scales. Here we review methods of climate-driven hydropower simulation at large spatial scales, specifically multi-basin regions to global. We identify four types of approach based on complexity of tools and richness of data applied to the problem. Since the earliest attempts to model climate-driven hydropower at continental scale almost two decades ago, the field has transitioned from one of scientific curiosity to practical application, with studies increasingly motivated by the need to inform power grid expansion planning and operation. As the hydrological and water management models used in large-scale hydropower studies become more sophisticated, new opportunities will emerge to study the impacts of changing hydropower on power system reliability and performance at large power grid scale. To grasp these opportunities, the water resources community must continue to enhance data and models for representing river flows and anthropogenic water use and management at subcontinental to global scales.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Long-term basin-scale hydropower expansion under alternative scenarios in a global multisector model

Abstract Hydropower is an important source of renewable, low-carbon energy. Global and regional energy systems, including hydropower, may evolve in a variety of ways under different scenarios. Representation of hydropower in global multisector models is often simplified at the country or regional level. Some models assume a fixed hydropower supply, which is not affected by economic drivers or competition with other electricity generation sources. Here, we implement an endogenous model of hydropower expansion in the Global Change Analysis Model, including a representation of hydropower potential at the river basin level to project future hydropower production across river basins and explore hydropower’s role in evolving energy systems both regionally and globally, under alternative scenarios. Each scenario utilizes the new endogenous hydropower implementation but makes different assumptions about future low-carbon transitions, technology costs, and energy demand. Our study suggests there is ample potential for hydropower to expand in the future to help meet growing demand for electricity driven by socioeconomic growth, electrification of end-use sectors, or other factors. However, hydropower expansion will be constrained by resource availability, resource location, and cost in ways that limit its growth relative to other technologies. As a result, all scenarios show a generally decreasing share of hydroelectricity over total electricity generation at the global level. Hydropower expansion varies across regions, and across basins within regions, due to differences in resource potential, cost, current utilization, and other factors. In sum, our scenarios entail hydropower generation growth between 36% and 119% in 2050, compared to 2015, globally.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Flood Estimation under Snowmelt and Rain-on-Snow Processes in Alaska: A Military Installation Perspective

Accurate flood estimation in snow-dominated and high-latitude regions remains challenging due to complex interactions among rainfall, snowmelt, and rain-on-snow (ROS) processes, which are not captured in conventional precipitation-based intensity-duration-frequency (PREC-IDF) curves. This study evaluates the Next-Generation IDF (NG-IDF) framework, an extension of PREC-IDF that incorporates total water available for runoff (precipitation minus changes in snow water equivalent), in two contrasting Alaskan watersheds of Department of Defense (DoD) significance: the Little Chena River Basin (LCRB) in interior Alaska, a tributary of the Chena River that flows through Fort Wainwright and near Eielson Air Force Base, and the Upper Ship Creek Basin (USCB), which drains Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson near Anchorage. Using long-term SNOTEL observations and event-based rainfall-runoff modeling, NG-IDF and PREC-IDF flood estimates were compared against observation-based flood frequency analyses. Results show that NG-IDF consistently reduces flood-estimation bias by 15–20% relative to PREC-IDF, particularly for snowmelt- and ROS-dominated events. In the interior LCRB, permafrost conditions can substantially amplify flood responses during snowmelt events, an effect not explicitly represented in standard design tools. These findings demonstrate that NG-IDF provides a more physically consistent and transferable framework for flood estimation in cold regions, with potential relevance to mission-critical DoD installation resilience. Projected increases in ROS frequency and permafrost degradation across Alaska further emphasize the need to integrate physics-based hydrologic models that explicitly represent snow and permafrost processes to enhance design resilience and operational readiness for military and other critical infrastructure.

Yan, Hongxiang (ORCID:000000022387403X)↗

A multi-model assessment of global freshwater temperature and thermoelectric power supply under climate change

Water temperature is a key abiotic factor influencing aquatic ecosystem health and the services provided to both nature and humans. Global water temperature models offer possibilities to improve our understanding of water temperature regimes, which is increasingly important against the backdrop of climate change. Yet, existing studies have predominantly relied on a single model, which can lead to an incomplete representation of uncertainty and potential biases, in addition to limited insight into the range of possible future conditions, which ultimately reduces the robustness of climate impact assessments. Here, we provide a comprehensive assessment of surface freshwater temperature changes from various river and lake models for both past conditions and under future scenarios of climate change. Global models consistently simulate that surface water temperatures are currently 0.5 °C–0.8 °C higher than at the turn of the century (i.e. 1981–2000), and that warming will extend and intensify with future global change throughout the 21st century. While the strength of warming is highly sensitive to the different water temperature models, emissions scenarios and global climate models, our multi-model ensemble shows a global average annual water temperature rise of between +1.3 °C and +4.1 °C by the end of the century. To illustrate a potential societal impact of our results, we evaluate how future changes in discharge and water temperature may affect existing thermoelectric power plants, estimating average annual reductions of 1.5%–6% in global usable capacity by the end of the century. However, with river water temperatures projected to exhibit more pronounced seasonal patterns in the future—especially under the more extreme climate change scenarios and during summer months in the Northern Hemisphere—intra-annual reductions in usable capacity can be much more severe. Given the challenges associated with (large-scale) adaptation to control water temperature regimes, strong climate change mitigation is crucial for minimising water temperature rises and its associated negative impacts on humankind and ecosystems.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Composition, Growth, Succession, and Function in the Cladophora Microbiome: Insights From Quantitative Stable Isotope Probing and NanoSIMS Imaging

The branching green macroalga Cladophora glomerata and its epiphytic microbiome dominate summer biomass in the Eel River, a Northern California river under Mediterranean (summer drought, winter rain) seasonality. Green Cladophora streamers proliferate in early summer, then change to yellow and then red-brown as epiphyte loads increase. Here, we characterised successional changes in epiphytic bacteria on Cladophora, examining both community composition and growth rates, using quantitative Stable Isotope Probing (qSIP) and 16S rRNA gene amplicon sequencing. The number of bacterial taxa increased with succession while growth rates peaked in the middle stage. NanoSIMS imaging confirmed high sulphur (S) concentrations in Cladophora cell walls relative to surrounding biomass, coinciding with a bloom of sulphur bacteria (bacteria that reduce or oxidise sulphur/sulphates). In general, relative abundances and growth rates were independent, indicating that either metric alone is insufficient for understanding how taxonomy and functional groups affect ecosystem processes. For instance, the relative abundance of nitrogen fixers peaked in the late summer when their relative growth rates were slowest. Such patterns may be driven by space competition limiting growth. Together, changes in abundance and relative growth rates suggest different limiting factors for different functional groups in the Cladophora microbiome at multiple successional stages.

Biological and medical sciences↗