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DOE OSTI2019

Quantitative Risk Management - Risk Informed Decision Making on High-Risk Waste Remediation Projects - 19022

For every $1 billion invested in projects, $97 million is wasted due to poor project performance. That means 9.7% of money spent on projects is wasted due to poor risk and uncertainty management. High-risk projects, similar to those in waste remediation, have the most to lose. A solid quantitative risk management program is one of the keys to increasing the likelihood that a project will succeed. A quantitative risk program solves two major problems that challenge the effective management of risk and uncertainty: 1. Risks arise at all levels of an organization; however, not all organizational levels have an effective way to identify and resolve them. This can lead to risks that, even if identified, are not reported. 2. Decision-makers are often forced to operate solely on intuition when implementing mitigation strategies, not fully understanding the effects that certain decisions have on the program's cost and schedule. A quantitative risk program uses a risk register and builds it into the project/program integrated schedule to assess the impact of these risks, typically at the 80% confidence contingency level for specific milestones and/or project completion. Implementing a quantitative risk program drives a forward-thinking, proactive mentality to problem solving into all levels of the organization. A healthy risk program for regular reporting and communication ensures that all members of an organization are thinking about risks and using their communication channels to resolve them. It gives a method of communication and incentive for all levels in the organization and helps to ensure that risks will be reported and resolved. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) has developed tools and methods that provide a level of realism for analyzing different scenarios and estimating contingency that does not exist in the standard industry risk tool kit. These tools and methods provide decision-makers with actionable, quantitatively based information to guide their decision making. The first tool is a probabilistic branching risk model for mitigation strategies. Current quantitative risk analysis tools in the industry simulate two cases: fully mitigated and un-mitigated. In the fully mitigated case, the user assumes that every planned mitigation activity is successful. In the un-mitigated case, the user assumes that none are successful. The truth lies between these two extremes. The PNNL team has developed a probabilistic risk model for mitigation scenarios that includes a probability that a mitigation activity will succeed and a probability that a mitigation action will be funded. These probabilities are elicited from subject matter experts and ensure that the contingency calculations at the specified confidence are approaching reality. The second tool developed at PNNL is the Risk Box, which is a tool that integrates with different scenarios in the risk register. For example, say the user is faced with two different and mutually exclusive mitigation actions to reduce a risk. The Risk Box methodology performs the contingency calculations and then displays them on a time-phased graph that shows how each scenario reduces the risk contingency needed on the project/program. This graph then provides quantitative information to show decision-makers which mitigation action provides the greatest reduction (cost and schedule) in risk contingency for the program. Implementing these and other tools within a structured risk program increases the likelihood that a project will come in on schedule and budget, ensures that all personnel are proactively thinking about problems and resolutions, creates communication channels for all members to submit and resolve potential problems, produces a prioritized list of risk rankings to focus leadership on issues that may cause the biggest problems, and implements processes that drive updates to the risk program as the risk profile changes. PNNL has been developing these methods and using them on projects for over 20 years. They have been successfully applied on waste management projects, high-tech research and development projects, and construction projects, and they continue to be used on a number of U.S. Department of Energy projects today. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2019

Accomplishments and Year-End Performance Report: Wind Energy Program, Fiscal Year 2019

Offering broad-based technical expertise and world-class capabilities and facilities, NREL leverages these assets to provide the wind industry with a better understanding of fundamental physics, high-performance computing-enabled simulation tools, and the physical validation necessary to significantly lower the cost of wind energy. This report provides an overview of the many achievements NREL delivered on behalf of DOE's Wind Energy Technologies Office (WETO) and other partners during Fiscal Year (FY) 2019.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Accomplishments and Year-End Performance Report: Wind Energy Program, Fiscal Year 2020

49 EE - Wind and Water Power Program - Wind (EE-4W↗

DOE OSTI2016

Initial Assessment of X-Ray Computer Tomography image analysis for material defect microstructure

The original development work leading to this report was focused on the non destructive three-dimensional (3-D) characterization of nuclear graphite as a means to better understand the nature of the inherent pore structure. The pore structure of graphite and its evolution under various environmental factors such as irradiation, mechanical stress, and oxidation plays an important role in their observed properties and characteristics. If we are to transition from an empirical understanding of graphite behavior to a truly predictive mechanistic understanding the pore structure must be well characterized and understood. As the pore structure within nuclear graphite is highly interconnected and truly 3-D in nature, 3-D characterization techniques are critical. While 3-D characterization has been an excellent tool for graphite pore characterization, it is applicable to a broad number of materials systems over many length scales. Given the wide range of applications and the highly quantitative nature of the tool, it is quite surprising to discover how few materials researchers understand and how valuable of a tool 3-D image processing and analysis can be. Ultimately, this report is intended to encourage broader use of 3 D image processing and analysis in materials science and engineering applications, more specifically nuclear-related materials applications, by providing interested readers with enough familiarity to explore its vast potential in identifying microstructure changes. To encourage this broader use, the report is divided into two main sections. Section 2 provides an overview of some of the key principals and concepts needed to extract a wide variety of quantitative metrics from a 3-D representation of a material microstructure. The discussion includes a brief overview of segmentation methods, connective components, morphological operations, distance transforms, and skeletonization. Section 3 focuses on the application of concepts from Section 2 to relevant materials at Idaho National Laboratory. In this section, image analysis examples featuring nuclear graphite will be discussed in detail. Additionally, example analyses from Transient Reactor Test Facility low-enriched uranium conversion, Advanced Gas Reactor like compacts, and tristructural isotopic particles are shown to give a broader perspective of the applicability to relevant materials of interest.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2015

Evaluating radiographers' diagnostic accuracy in screen-reading mammograms: what constitutes a quality study?

The aim of this study was to first evaluate the quality of studies investigating the diagnostic accuracy of radiographers as mammogram screen-readers and then to develop an adapted tool for determining the quality of screen-reading studies. A literature search was used to identify relevant studies and a quality evaluation tool constructed by combining the criteria for quality of Whiting, Rutjes, Dinnes et al. and Brealey and Westwood. This constructed tool was then applied to the studies and subsequently adapted specifically for use in evaluating quality in studies investigating diagnostic accuracy of screen-readers. Eleven studies were identified and the constructed tool applied to evaluate quality. This evaluation resulted in the identification of quality issues with the studies such as potential for bias, applicability of results, study conduct, reporting of the study and observer characteristics. An assessment of the applicability and relevance of the tool for this area of research resulted in adaptations to the criteria and the development of a tool specifically for evaluating diagnostic accuracy in screen-reading. This tool, with further refinement and rigorous validation can make a significant contribution to promoting well-designed studies in this important area of research and practice.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

DOE OSTI2015

The PDF4LHC report on PDFs and LHC data: Results from Run I and preparation for Run II

The accurate determination of Parton Distribution Functions (PDFs) of the proton is an essential ingredient of the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) program. PDF uncertainties impact a wide range of processes, from Higgs boson characterization and precision Standard Model measurements to New Physics searches. A major recent development in modern PDF analyses has been to exploit the wealth of new information contained in precision measurements from the LHC Run I, as well as progress in tools and methods to include these data in PDF fits. In this report we summarize the information that PDF-sensitive measurements at the LHC have provided so far, and review the prospects for further constraining PDFs with data from the recently started Run II. As a result, this document aims to provide useful input to the LHC collaborations to prioritize their PDF-sensitive measurements at Run II, as well as a comprehensive reference for the PDF-fitting collaborations.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2023

Natural Language Processing-Enhanced Nuclear Industry Operating Experience Data Analysis: Aggregation and Interpretation of Multi-Report Analysis Results

Industry-wide operating experience is a critical source of raw data for reliability and risk model parameter estimations for nuclear power plants. A large portion of operating experience data are failure events stored as reports that contain unstructured data, such as narratives. In current practice, a failure report is usually reviewed and manually coded by analysts. The coding is based on extracting several event characteristics such as system name, component type, sub-part type, failure mode, and failure cause. Event narratives are mostly used to help understand events and extract their characteristics. In this line of research, we aim to maximize the usage of event narratives by leveraging natural language processing (NLP) methods to automatically convert an event narrative to a causal graph. This research has promise to improve physical understanding of failure initiation and propagation and to facilitate use of non-failure data (e.g., near-misses and degradations) to complement the limited data pool of failures. In our previous work, we developed an NLP tool and applied it to analyze a number of licensee event reports submitted by U.S. nuclear power plants to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. In this paper, we will report our recent research progress in aggregating the results of multiple reports, developing network model(s), and drawing statistical insights.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2019

Chemoenzymatic Platform for Synthesis of Chiral Organofluorines Based on Type II Aldolases

We report aldolases are C-C bond forming enzymes that have become prominent tools for sustainable synthesis of complex synthons. However, enzymatic methods of fluorine incorporation into such compounds are lacking due to the rarity of fluorine in nature. Recently, the use of fluoropyruvate as a non-native aldolase substrate has arisen as a solution. Here, we report that the type II HpcH aldolases efficiently catalyze fluoropyruvate addition to diverse aldehydes, with exclusive (3S)-selectivity at fluorine that is rationalized by DFT calculations on a mechanistic model. We also measure the kinetic parameters of aldol addition and demonstrate engineering of the hydroxyl group stereoselectivity. Our aldolase collection is then employed in the chemoenzymatic synthesis of novel fluoroacids and ester derivatives in high stereopurity (d.r. 80-98 %). The compounds made available by this method serve as precursors to fluorinated analogs of sugars, amino acids, and other valuable chiral building blocks.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2017

State-of-the-Art for Hygrothermal Simulation Tools

The hygrothermal (heat and moisture) performance of buildings can be assessed by utilizing simulation tools. There are currently a number of available hygrothermal calculation tools available which vary in their degree of sophistication and runtime requirements. This report investigates three of the most commonly used models (WUFI, HAMT, and EMPD) to assess their limitations and potential to generate physically realistic results to prioritize improvements for EnergyPlus (which uses HAMT and EMPD). The outcome of the study shows that, out of these three tools, WUFI has the greatest hygrothermal capabilities. Limitations of these tools were also assessed including: WUFI’s inability to properly account for air leakage and transfer at surface boundaries; HAMT’s inability to handle air leakage, precipitationrelated moisture problems, or condensation problems from high relative humidity; and multiple limitations for EMPD as a simplified method to estimate indoor temperature and humidity levels and generally not used to estimate the hygrothermal performance of the building envelope materials. In conclusion, out of the three investigated simulation tools, HAMT has the greatest modeling potential, is open source, and we have prioritized specific features that can enable EnergyPlus to model all relevant heat and moisture transfer mechanisms that impact the performance of building envelope components.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2026

FY 2026 Midyear Report: Seismic Monitoring of Underground Vibration Sources Using Distributed Acoustic Sensing and Seismometers

Safeguards-relevant temporal changes in underground facilities can be observed using geophysical monitoring techniques. Seismic waves, in particular, provide valuable insights into subsurface activities and can serve as an important tool for detecting anomalous events that may indicate containment breaches at geological repositories. This midyear report summarizes ongoing efforts to automatically and rapidly detect and locate anomalous vibration signals that could be indicative of potential containment breaches. Previous work during FY25 focused on compiling continuous seismic datasets from two underground sites and developing a database of continuous waveforms and ground-truth event data derived from multiple sensing modalities. Building on this foundation, we are adapting anomaly detection and geolocation algorithms to explore methods for monitoring underground activities using two relatively low-maintenance sensing technologies: a dense surface geophone array deployed at the Pleasant Gap mine in Pennsylvania, and a three-dimensional fiber-optic cable array for distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) installed in the subsurface at the Sanford Underground Research Facility (SURF) in South Dakota. This report summarizes work conducted during the first two quarters of FY26, during which we refined a dynamic power spectral density (PSD)-based detector, applied it independently to each geophone station, and then combined the per‑station detections with density-based spatial clustering of applications with noise (DBSCAN) to cluster events and produce spatial maps over a nine‑day interval. In addition, we outline plans for a field trial at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) in New Mexico to compare traditional seismic monitoring approaches with DAS techniques and to evaluate the benefits of combined data analysis. Activities during the past two quarters have included the preparation and submission of a Field Test Plan to WIPP for approval, as well as submission to headquarters for review and feedback.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

Carbon use efficiency diagnostics in Nannochloropsis salina

We report that carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) can be a significant resource input affecting the cost of algae biomass production on an industrial scale. Improvements in biofuel productivity therefore require characterization of CO 2 use efficiency (CUE). RuBisCO saturation with CO 2 is an important factor influencing biomass productivity. During CO2 fixation by RuBisCO, fractionation of carbon isotopes occurs, with preferential fixation of 12 CO 2 , resulting in assimilation of the lighter isotope in algae. This photosynthetic discrimination (Δ DIC-algae ), approximated by the difference between the δ 13 C of external medium and that of algae, is a function of the proportion of CO 2 fixed relative to supply. Δ DIC-algae has been applied to the study of photosynthesis in algae over the past few decades and we have adopted the tool to characterize improvements in conditions optimized for biofuel productivity, such as controlled photobioreactors. We report the use of Δ DIC-algae as a tool for characterizing CO 2 dynamics and RuBisCO saturation in Nannochloropsis salina CCMP 1776, a benchmark strain in algal biofuels research. We use Δ DIC-algae to describe the conditions under which RuBisCO saturation can be achieved to maximize biomass productivity. Finally, our results suggest that determination of Δ DIC-algae can provide important feedback to support engineering and cultural improvements that can impact carbon use efficiency and biomass productivity.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2015

Final Report: SECA Core Technology Program - PNNL

This report summarizes results from experimental and modeling studies performed by researchers at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory on behalf of the Solid-State Energy Conversion Alliance (SECA) Core Technology Program. The work was performed from 1999 through 2014, under FWP 40552. PNNL’s scientific and technical contributions included development/evaluation of improved materials and fabrication processes for solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) components, development/implementation of modeling tools to facilitate cell and stack design and optimization, and improved understanding/mitigation of SOFC performance degradation mechanisms. Primary areas of contribution were 1) Materials and fabrication processes, 2) Modeling and simulation tools, 3) Understanding of degradation mechanisms, and 4) New test protocols. The report contains brief descriptions of primary scientific and technical achievements; references to detailed descriptions of the work (patents, papers, and reports) are also provided.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

DOE OSTI2014

Survey of Existing Tools for Formal Verification

Formal methods have come into wide use because of their effectiveness in verifying "safety and security" requirements of digital systems; a set of requirements for which testing is mostly ineffective. Formal methods are routinely used in the design and verification of high-consequence digital systems in industry. This report outlines our work in assessing the capabilities of commercial and open source formal tools and the ways in which they can be leveraged in digital design workflows.

Armstrong, Robert C.↗

DOE OSTI2021

FEST: Facility Energy Saving and Securing Technology Using Multi-Source Data: (Milestone 2 Report)

This project aims to demonstrate three technologies developed in-house at LLNL and University of Michigan-Dearborn (UMD), at a military site, including i) Grid Data Crossing (called GriD-Xing) for increasing smart meter data usability, ii) Facility Energy Optimization (called Facility E-GO) for improving facility energy efficiency in both operation and planning perspectives, and iii) Co-simulation tool (called Co-Sim) for enhancing smart meter and energy facility networks resilience and security. In this report, Millstone 2 - Integration A: Integrate GriD-Xing and facility optimization tools is documented.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2024

Modeling Radionuclide Inventories in MSR Off-Gas Systems with Radiochemical Transport Analysis

Molten salt reactors (MSR) contain unique characteristics that may require enhancements to modeling tools to accurately predict phenomena. One characteristic that may be advantageous to leverage during normal operation is on-line processing of the circulating fuel salt, such as an off-gas system (OGS) to remove volatile fission products. Therefore, new modeling tools must be developed to integrate spatial resolution and chemistry effects into fuel depletion tools to be able to account for these non-core sources of radioactivity. Such types of radiochemical transport analysis tools were used to estimate the removal rates for 12 elements within a flow model of the Molten Salt Reactor Experiment (MSRE) by optimizing against legacy experimental data of the gas-borne (GB) percentages of 12 nuclides. The removal rates were used in a depletion model to calculate the FP inventory that enters the MSRE OGS. Calculations are in good agreement with the empirical GB percentages reported for the 12 nuclides, which validates the approach and verifies each tool’s treatment of the radiochemical flow effects. The OGS inventory is discussed in terms of the largest nuclide contributors to activity, dose consequence, decay heat, and elemental composition. Finally, insights from the study allow recommendations to be made for future code development activities.

Shahbazi, Shayan↗

DOE OSTI2021

A software environment for effective reliability management for pulsed power design

The reliable design of magnetically insulated transmission lines (MITLs) for very high current pulsed power machines must be accomplished in the future by utilizing a variety of sophisticated modeling tools. The complexity of the models required is high and the number of sub-models and approximations large. The potential for significant analyst error using a single tool is large, with possible reliability issues associated with the plasma modeling tools themselves or the chosen approach by the analyst to solve a given problem. Here, we report on a software infrastructure design that provides a workable framework for building self-consistent models and constraining feedback to limit analyst error. The framework and associated tools aid the development of physical intuition, the development of increasingly sophisticated models, and the comparison of performance results. The work lays the computational foundation for designing state-of-the-art pulsed-power experiments. The design and useful features of this environment are described. We discuss the utility of the Git source code management system and a GitLab interface for use in project management that extends beyond software development tasks.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2017

Commercial Building Energy Asset Score

This software (Asset Scoring Tool) is designed to help building owners and managers to gain insight into the as-built efficiency of their buildings. It is a web tool where users can enter their building information and obtain an asset score report. The asset score report consists of modeled building energy use (by end use and by fuel type), building systems (envelope, lighting, heating, cooling, service hot water) evaluations, and recommended energy efficiency measures. The intended users are building owners and operators who have limited knowledge of building energy efficiency. The scoring tool collects minimum building data (~20 data entries) from users and build a full-scale energy model using the inference functionalities from Facility Energy Decision System (FEDS). The scoring tool runs real-time building energy simulation using EnergyPlus and performs life-cycle cost analysis using FEDS. An API is also under development to allow the third-party applications to exchange data with the web service of the scoring tool.

Source record↗

DOE OSTI2015

LNG Safety Assessment Evaluation Methods

Sandia National Laboratories evaluated published safety assessment methods across a variety of industries including Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), hydrogen, land and marine transportation, as well as the US Department of Defense (DOD). All the methods were evaluated for their potential applicability for use in the LNG railroad application. After reviewing the documents included in this report, as well as others not included because of repetition, the Department of Energy (DOE) Hydrogen Safety Plan Checklist is most suitable to be adapted to the LNG railroad application. This report was developed to survey industries related to rail transportation for methodologies and tools that can be used by the FRA to review and evaluate safety assessments submitted by the railroad industry as a part of their implementation plans for liquefied or compressed natural gas storage ( on-board or tender) and engine fueling delivery systems. The main sections of this report provide an overview of various methods found during this survey. In most cases, the reference document is quoted directly. The final section provides discussion and a recommendation for the most appropriate methodology that will allow efficient and consistent evaluations to be made. The DOE Hydrogen Safety Plan Checklist was then revised to adapt it as a methodology for the Federal Railroad Administration’s use in evaluating safety plans submitted by the railroad industry.

03 NATURAL GAS↗