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Cybersecurity Value-at-Risk Framework

As more variable renewable energy sources are added to the grid, the role of hydropower as a reliable baseline and firming resource is growing more critical. However, the U.S hydropower fleet is not fully prepared to face modern issues such as cybersecurity threats. Hydropower accounts for 37% of U.S. utility-scale renewable electricity but is challenged by diverse infrastructure and legacy devices that predate modern security practices. While new cybersecurity solutions cannot simply be added to current hydropower generation and operation technologies, custom cybersecurity assessments can reveal system-specific threats and risk probabilities and identify mitigating enhancements.

cybersecurity valuation methodology↗

A Robust Methodology to Elucidate Kinetics of Room Temperature Electrochemical Propane Adsorption on Platinum

Electrocatalytic activation of alkanes can further decarbonize chemical manufacturing by leveraging affordable renewable electricity and readily available shale gas reserves in the United States. Earlier works have identified the unique role of Pt in adsorbing and activating alkanes, like propane, at room temperature in acidic, aqueous electrolytes, revealing spontaneous formation of deeply dehydrogenated propane-derived surface species with an intact C 3 - backbone. Although an adsorption mechanism was hypothesized, it has not been explicitly investigated to date, preventing the quantification of kinetic rate parameters. A robust methodology to investigate and benchmark propane adsorption kinetics on Pt is critical for the rational design of electrocatalysts that exhibit higher selectivity toward desired partially oxidized products. Herein, we analyze an oxidative current transience that appears during the adsorption of propane on Pt in aqueous electrochemical conditions and develop a methodology that elucidates the adsorption mechanism and enables quantification of rate parameters such as order dependences and apparent activation barriers. This method yields an expected first-order dependence with respect to propane concentration at low coverage and reveals a second-order dependence with respect to the concentration of surface active sites. Additionally, the apparent activation barrier for propane adsorption was calculated using an Arrhenius analysis of the current transience under temperature control. The experimentally measured activation barrier of 35 kJ mol –1 is in excellent agreement with the theoretical barrier calculated by density functional theory (DFT). The kinetic analysis was extended, via the use of transition state theory, to extract entropy and enthalpy of activation, yielding consistent results with the proposed two-step adsorption mechanism and DFT calculations. These results demonstrate reliable quantification of kinetic parameters for electrocatalytic activation of C–H bonds in alkanes that can be employed for rational catalyst development for a versatile range of electrocatalytic conditions.

alkane activation↗

Atomistic Method Applied to Computational Modeling of Surface Alloys

The formation of surface alloys is a growing research field that, in terms of the surface structure of multicomponent systems, defines the frontier both for experimental and theoretical techniques. Because of the impact that the formation of surface alloys has on surface properties, researchers need reliable methods to predict new surface alloys and to help interpret unknown structures. The structure of surface alloys and when, and even if, they form are largely unpredictable from the known properties of the participating elements. No unified theory or model to date can infer surface alloy structures from the constituents properties or their bulk alloy characteristics. In spite of these severe limitations, a growing catalogue of such systems has been developed during the last decade, and only recently are global theories being advanced to fully understand the phenomenon. None of the methods used in other areas of surface science can properly model even the already known cases. Aware of these limitations, the Computational Materials Group at the NASA Glenn Research Center at Lewis Field has developed a useful, computationally economical, and physically sound methodology to enable the systematic study of surface alloy formation in metals. This tool has been tested successfully on several known systems for which hard experimental evidence exists and has been used to predict ternary surface alloy formation (results to be published: Garces, J.E.; Bozzolo, G.; and Mosca, H.: Atomistic Modeling of Pd/Cu(100) Surface Alloy Formation. Surf. Sci., 2000 (in press); Mosca, H.; Garces J.E.; and Bozzolo, G.: Surface Ternary Alloys of (Cu,Au)/Ni(110). (Accepted for publication in Surf. Sci., 2000.); and Garces, J.E.; Bozzolo, G.; Mosca, H.; and Abel, P.: A New Approach for Atomistic Modeling of Pd/Cu(110) Surface Alloy Formation. (Submitted to Appl. Surf. Sci.)). Ternary alloy formation is a field yet to be fully explored experimentally. The computational tool, which is based on the BFS (Bozzolo, Ferrante, and Smith) method for the calculation of the energetics, consists of a small number of simple PCbased computer codes that deal with the different aspects of surface alloy formation. Two analysis modes are available within this package. The first mode provides an atom-by-atom description of real and virtual stages 1. during the process of surface alloying, based on the construction of catalogues of configurations where each configuration describes one possible atomic distribution. BFS analysis of this catalogue provides information on accessible states, possible ordering patterns, and details of island formation or film growth. More importantly, it provides insight into the evolution of the system. Software developed by the Computational Materials Group allows for the study of an arbitrary number of elements forming surface alloys, including an arbitrary number of surface atomic layers. The second mode involves large-scale temperature-dependent computer 2. simulations that use the BFS method for the energetics and provide information on the dynamic processes during surface alloying. These simulations require the implementation of Monte-Carlo-based codes with high efficiency within current workstation environments. This methodology capitalizes on the advantages of the BFS method: there are no restrictions on the number or type of elements or on the type of crystallographic structure considered. This removes any restrictions in the definition of the configuration catalogues used in the analytical calculations, thus allowing for the study of arbitrary ordering patterns, ultimately leading to the actual surface alloy structure. Moreover, the Monte Carlo numerical technique used for the large-scale simulations allows for a detailed visualization of the simulated process, the main advantage of this type of analysis being the ability to understand the underlying features that drive these processes. Because of the simplicity of the BFS method for e energetics used in these calculations, a detailed atom-by-atom analysis can be performed at any point in the simulation, providing necessary insight on the details of the process. The main objective of this research program is to develop a tool to guide experimenters in understanding and interpreting often unexpected results in alloy formation experiments. By reducing the computational effort without losing physical accuracy, we expect that powerful simulation tools will be developed in the immediate future, which will allow material scientists to easily visualize and analyze processes at a level not achievable experimentally.

Bozzolo, Guillermo H.↗

Increasing Small Satellite Reliability- A Public-Private Initiative

At present, CubeSat components and buses are generally not appropriate for missions where significant risk of failure, or the inability to quantify risk or confidence, is acceptable. However, in the future we anticipate that CubeSats will be used for missions requiring reliability of 1-3 years for Earth-observing missions and even longer for Planetary, Heliophysics, and Astrophysics missions. Their growing potential utility is driving an interagency effort to improve and quantify CubeSat reliability, and more generally, small satellite mission risk. The Small Satellite Reliability Initiative (SSRI)—an ongoing activity with broad collaborative participation from civil, DoD, and commercial space systems providers and stakeholders—targets this challenge. The Initiative seeks to define implementable and broadly-accepted approaches to achieve reliability and acceptable risk postures associated with several SmallSat mission risk classes—from “do no harm” missions, to those associated with missions whose failure would result in loss or delay of key national objectives. These approaches will maintain, to the extent practical, cost efficiencies associated with small satellite missions and consider constraints associated with supply chain elements, as appropriate. The SSRI addresses this challenge from two architectural levels—the mission- or system-level, and the component- or subsystem-level. The mission- or system-level scope targets assessment approaches that are efficient and effective, with mitigation strategies that facilitate resiliency to mission or system anomalies while the component- or subsystem-level scope addresses the challenge at lower architectural levels. The initiative does not limit strategies and approaches to proven and traditional methodologies, but is focused on fomenting thought on novel and innovative solutions. This paper discusses the genesis of and drivers for this initiative, how the public-private collaboration is being executed, findings and recommendations derived to date, and next steps towards broadening small satellite mission potential.

SmallSat↗

Influence of fatigue precracking and specimen size on Master Curve fracture toughness measurements of EUROFER97 and F82H steels

EUROFER97 and F82H steels are two leading reduced-activation ferritic-martensitic (RAFM) steels for fusion first wall and blanket applications. Exposure to the harsh environment of fusion reactors can result in severe degradation of fracture toughness. Thus, the post-irradiation evaluation of fracture toughness is critical for understanding the material behavior. Due to the space constraints of irradiation facilities and challenges in controlling a uniform irradiation condition for large size specimens, the development of small specimen test techniques (SSTT) is indispensable to evaluate the performance of irradiated materials. In this study, we evaluated specimen size effects on the Master Curve fracture toughness of EUROFER97 and F82H steels. A wide variety of specimens, including 0.5 T compact tension (C(T)) specimens, 0.16 T mini-compact tension (miniC(T)) specimens, and 1.65 mm miniature bend bar specimens, were tested. The testing methodology was based on the Master Curve method in the ASTM E1921 standard. No specimen size effect was observed in 0.5 T C(T) and 0.16 T miniC(T) specimens on the Master Curve reference temperature T0, while 1.65 mm miniature bend bar specimens yielded a higher T 0Q . A strong effect of fatigue precracking on T 0 for 0.5 T C(T) and 0.16 T miniC(T) specimens was observed, such that testing on specimens with skewed fatigue precrack fronts resulted in lower T 0 than for specimens with ASTM standard qualified straight fatigue precrack fronts. The results highlight the importance of experimental quality control in developing SSTT for Master Curve fracture toughness testing. Lastly, we also evaluated and provided recommendations on the minimum number of specimens needed for each specimen type for yielding reliable T 0Q values.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Synthetic Pathways to gamma-Graphyne and Related Allotropes of Carbon

Graphynes, two-dimensional carbon lattices combining sp 1 and sp 2 hybridized atoms, were predicted theoretically more than three decades ago, but few structures have been realized to date. These carbons are believed to possess remarkable mechanical and electronic properties, including high charge carrier mobilities comparable to those in graphene (10 4 to 10 5 cm 2 V -1 s -1 ). Unlike graphene, certain graphynes are predicted to be intrinsic semiconductors. Among these intriguing structures, γ-graphyne stands out as the structurally simplest and most symmetric sp 1 /sp 2 lattice. γ-Graphyne was first theorized in 1987. In contrast with graphene, γ-graphyne will be a semiconductor with a small band gap suitable for fabrication of electronic devices. This solves one of the fundamental problems of carbon-based electronics, the necessity for inducing a band gap in graphene. γ-Graphyne has the potential to form the basis for the next generation of carbon-based electronics operating at speeds unattainable by traditional silicon chips. Unlike silicon, γ-graphyne is a direct band gap semiconductor, and it will feature exceptional strength comparable to that of other 2D carbon allotropes. Such combination of properties may enable a new generation of highly efficient, ultra-light and flexible solar cells. Despite being a potentially “magical” material, γ-graphyne remained synthetically elusive for over three decades. The primary goals of this project were: (1) Synthesis of bulk γ-graphyne phases through solution-phase 2D polymerizations; (2) Experimental exploration of the physical and chemical properties of γ-graphyne; and (3) Mechanistic and theoretical studies of the novel chemical transformations developed in Goal 1. Common pyrolytic and vapor-deposition methodologies used for the synthesis of graphitic allotropes are unsuitable for graphyne and other sp 1 -contaning structures, as acetylenes readily convert to graphene and amorphous carbon at high temperatures. In contrast, this proposal is based on solution-based 2D polymerization. The major advantages of this approach over the traditional high temperature techniques are the potential to adjust the structure of the material with atomic precision, and the possibility of using structurally complex and relatively fragile repeat units. The outcomes of this research can revolutionize carbon nanotechnology, expanding the field’s structural toolbox beyond primarily graphitic and benzenoid structures. Understanding the chemistry of sp 1 carbon allotropes can lead to entirely new classes of structures with unique properties, including graphyne ribbons, nanotubes, quantum dots, and heterostructures with other 2D materials. Furthermore, the development of reliable and robust synthetic pathways towards periodic covalent molecular sheets with atomically precise structures shall have a profound impact on chemistry and materials science.

2D polymerization↗

Real-time closed-loop simulation and upset evaluation of control systems in harsh electromagnetic environments

Digital control systems for applications such as aircraft avionics and multibody systems must maintain adequate control integrity in adverse as well as nominal operating conditions. For example, control systems for advanced aircraft, and especially those with relaxed static stability, will be critical to flight and will, therefore, have very high reliability specifications which must be met regardless of operating conditions. In addition, multibody systems such as robotic manipulators performing critical functions must have control systems capable of robust performance in any operating environment in order to complete the assigned task reliably. Severe operating conditions for electronic control systems can result from electromagnetic disturbances caused by lightning, high energy radio frequency (HERF) transmitters, and nuclear electromagnetic pulses (NEMP). For this reason, techniques must be developed to evaluate the integrity of the control system in adverse operating environments. The most difficult and illusive perturbations to computer-based control systems that can be caused by an electromagnetic environment (EME) are functional error modes that involve no component damage. These error modes are collectively known as upset, can occur simultaneously in all of the channels of a redundant control system, and are software dependent. Upset studies performed to date have not addressed the assessment of fault tolerant systems and do not involve the evaluation of a control system operating in a closed-loop with the plant. A methodology for performing a real-time simulation of the closed-loop dynamics of a fault tolerant control system with a simulated plant operating in an electromagnetically harsh environment is presented. In particular, considerations for performing upset tests on the controller are discussed. Some of these considerations are the generation and coupling of analog signals representative of electromagnetic disturbances to a control system under test, analog data acquisition, and digital data acquisition from fault tolerant systems. In addition, a case study of an upset test methodology for a fault tolerant electromagnetic aircraft engine control system is presented.

Belcastro, Celeste M.↗

Stochastic-Strength-Based Damage Simulation Tool for Ceramic Matrix and Polymer Matrix Composite Structures

Stochastic-based, discrete-event progressive damage simulations of ceramic-matrix composite and polymer matrix composite material structures have been enabled through the development of a unique multiscale modeling tool. This effort involves coupling three independently developed software programs: (1) the Micromechanics Analysis Code with Generalized Method of Cells (MAC/GMC), (2) the Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures Life Prediction Program (CARES/ Life), and (3) the Abaqus finite element analysis (FEA) program. MAC/GMC contributes multiscale modeling capabilities and micromechanics relations to determine stresses and deformations at the microscale of the composite material repeating unit cell (RUC). CARES/Life contributes statistical multiaxial failure criteria that can be applied to the individual brittle-material constituents of the RUC. Abaqus is used at the global scale to model the overall composite structure. An Abaqus user-defined material (UMAT) interface, referred to here as "FEAMAC/CARES," was developed that enables MAC/GMC and CARES/Life to operate seamlessly with the Abaqus FEA code. For each FEAMAC/CARES simulation trial, the stochastic nature of brittle material strength results in random, discrete damage events, which incrementally progress and lead to ultimate structural failure. This report describes the FEAMAC/CARES methodology and discusses examples that illustrate the performance of the tool. A comprehensive example problem, simulating the progressive damage of laminated ceramic matrix composites under various off-axis loading conditions and including a double notched tensile specimen geometry, is described in a separate report.

composite structures↗

The DG03: An Outline of Suggested Changes

The Design Guideline 03 (DG03) published by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory in 2009 is widely used in the wind industry. It allows engineers to get acquainted with design aspects and methodologies to determine pitch and yaw bearing static capacity and fatigue life. The combination of the detailed theoretical descriptions and practical examples makes it a highly application-oriented document. Since its publication, the knowledge about oscillating bearings, slewing bearings, and wind turbines has grown significantly. Some aspects of the DG03 need updates to reflect the current state of the art. This work covers proposed changes for an upcoming revision of DG03.

design guideline↗

The Wind Turbine Design Guideline DG03: Yaw and Pitch Rolling Bearing Life Revisited - An Outline of Suggested Changes: Preprint

The Design Guideline 03 (DG03) published by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory in 2009 is widely used in the wind industry. It allows engineers to get acquainted with design aspects and methodologies to determine pitch and yaw bearing static capacity and fatigue life. The combination of the detailed theoretical descriptions and practical examples makes it a highly application-oriented document. Since its publication, the knowledge about oscillating bearings, slewing bearings, and wind turbines has grown significantly. Some aspects of the DG03 need updates to reflect the current state of the art. This work covers proposed changes for an upcoming revision of DG03.

design guideline↗

$\mathrm{EBR-II MOX}$ Fuel Characterization Enabling ARES Phase I Testing

Pretransient characterization was performed for the Experimental Breeder Reactor II (EBR-II) mixed-oxide (MOX) fuel pellets from the SPA-2/-2B Operational Reliability Testing collaboration between Japan and the United States. Continued collaboration under the Advanced Reactor Experiments for Sodium Fast Reactor Fuels project will investigate the transient performance of these rods in the Transient Reactor Test facility at Idaho National Laboratory in the MOXTOP-THOR experiment. The results will fill a gap in existing transient performance data for MOX as these rods have a peak burnup of 14.3 at. % (~134.4 GWd/t) in the EBR-II. Fuel pellet properties were gathered from available resources and their irradiation and decay history evaluated. Further reactor physics calculations were performed to support the experiment design, reactor operations, and safety analyses necessary to enable the programmatic success of this effort. Of the three irradiated fuel pins, two will undergo transient testing, and all three will undergo post-irradiation examination. The methodology development and analysis activities utilized we report enable current experiment design work and provide the pathway through which measured data of this type can be further evaluated.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Development of Statistical Process Control Methodology for an Environmentally Compliant Surface Cleaning Process in a Bonding Laboratory

Bonding labs at both MSFC and the northern Utah production plant prepare bond test specimens which simulate or witness the production of NASA's Reusable Solid Rocket Motor (RSRM). The current process for preparing the bonding surfaces employs 1,1,1-trichloroethane vapor degreasing, which simulates the current RSRM process. Government regulations (e.g., the 1990 Amendments to the Clean Air Act) have mandated a production phase-out of a number of ozone depleting compounds (ODC) including 1,1,1-trichloroethane. In order to comply with these regulations, the RSRM Program is qualifying a spray-in-air (SIA) precision cleaning process using Brulin 1990, an aqueous blend of surfactants. Accordingly, surface preparation prior to bonding process simulation test specimens must reflect the new production cleaning process. The Bonding Lab Statistical Process Control (SPC) program monitors the progress of the lab and its capabilities, as well as certifies the bonding technicians, by periodically preparing D6AC steel tensile adhesion panels with EA-91 3NA epoxy adhesive using a standardized process. SPC methods are then used to ensure the process is statistically in control, thus producing reliable data for bonding studies, and identify any problems which might develop. Since the specimen cleaning process is being changed, new SPC limits must be established. This report summarizes side-by-side testing of D6AC steel tensile adhesion witness panels and tapered double cantilevered beams (TDCBs) using both the current baseline vapor degreasing process and a lab-scale spray-in-air process. A Proceco 26 inches Typhoon dishwasher cleaned both tensile adhesion witness panels and TDCBs in a process which simulates the new production process. The tests were performed six times during 1995, subsequent statistical analysis of the data established new upper control limits (UCL) and lower control limits (LCL). The data also demonstrated that the new process was equivalent to the vapor degreasing process.

Hutchens, Dale E.↗

Elevating the Quality of Space Omics Sequencing Data: Innovations and Methodologies from NASA GeneLab Sample Processing Laboratory

NASA’s GeneLab, part of the NASA Open Science Data Repository, is a space-related database that hosts a diverse range of transcriptomics, proteomics, epigenomics and genomics data. The NASA GeneLab Sample Processing Laboratory (SPL) generates omics data from biological experiments conducted aboard the International Space Station, Space Shuttle and space related ground experiments, this omics data then hosted on the GeneLab repository. Samples generated such experiments pose numerous technical challenges such as small experimental sample size, variance in dissection times, limited tissue preservation methods, prolonged storage time, and more. GeneLab SPL team had developed specialized expertise in nucleic acid extraction, library preparation and sequencing of such biological samples via extensive training and years of experience. In order to ensure data accuracy and consistency across experiments, SPL has developed standardized protocols for each species and tissue type. These protocols in conjunction with quality control metrics and data standards are crucial in generating of high-quality data. SPL protocols and standards have been developed in collaboration with the scientific community and had been made publicly available on the GeneLab portal, guaranteeing comparability of datasets across spaceflight experiments. To ensure reliability of data generation, SPL leverages cutting-edge innovations in laboratory automation for sample processing. By leveraging these state-of-the-art platforms, SPL achieves high levels of data reproducibility while significantly minimizing sources of bias and variability, especially across experiments with large numbers of samples. Over the past few years, the space biology investigator community has accessed SPL-generated data from the Open Science Data Repository for a myriad of data re-analysis and re-use studies. We observe a trend that in-house SPL-generated data consistently outperforms outsourced sequencing data in terms of technical standards, quality control metrics, timeliness of data delivery, and sequencing and reagent efficiency. Superior data generation has and will continue to enable discoveries in disease, diagnostic tools, and the biological effects of long duration spaceflight.

GeneLab↗

Elevating the Quality of Space Omics Sequencing Data: Innovations and Methodologies from NASA GeneLab Sample Processing Laboratory

NASA’s GeneLab, part of the NASA Open Science Data Repository, is a space-related database that hosts a diverse range of transcriptomics, proteomics, epigenomics and genomics data. The NASA GeneLab Sample Processing Laboratory (SPL) generates omics data from biological experiments conducted aboard the International Space Station, Space Shuttle and space related ground experiments, this omics data then hosted on the GeneLab repository. Samples generated such experiments pose numerous technical challenges such as small experimental sample size, variance in dissection times, limited tissue preservation methods, prolonged storage time, and more. GeneLab SPL team had developed specialized expertise in nucleic acid extraction, library preparation and sequencing of such biological samples via extensive training and years of experience. In order to ensure data accuracy and consistency across experiments, SPL has developed standardized protocols for each species and tissue type. These protocols in conjunction with quality control metrics and data standards are crucial in generating of high-quality data. SPL protocols and standards have been developed in collaboration with the scientific community and had been made publicly available on the GeneLab portal, guaranteeing comparability of datasets across spaceflight experiments. To ensure reliability of data generation, SPL leverages cutting-edge innovations in laboratory automation for sample processing. By leveraging these state-of-the-art platforms, SPL achieves high levels of data reproducibility while significantly minimizing sources of bias and variability, especially across experiments with large numbers of samples. Over the past few years, the space biology investigator community has accessed SPL-generated data from the Open Science Data Repository for a myriad of data re-analysis and re-use studies. We observe a trend that in-house SPL-generated data consistently outperforms outsourced sequencing data in terms of technical standards, quality control metrics, timeliness of data delivery, and sequencing and reagent efficiency. Superior data generation has and will continue to enable discoveries in disease, diagnostic tools, and the biological effects of long duration spaceflight.

GeneLab↗

Reactive Transport Modeling with Physics-Informed Machine Learning for Critical Minerals Applications

This study presents a physics-informed neural network (PINN) framework for reactive transport modeling for simulating fast bimolecular reactions in porous media. Accurate characterization of cAhemical interactions and product formation in surface and subsurface environments is essential for advancing critical mineral extraction and related geoscience applications. The proposed methodology sequentially addresses the flow and diffusion–reaction subproblems. The flow field is computed using a mixed formulation, while the diffusion–reaction system is modeled via two uncoupled tensorial diffusion equations reformulated in terms of chemical invariants. PINNs are employed to solve the governing equations, enabling data-efficient, mesh-free prediction of chemical concentration fields. The framework is validated through a series of benchmark problems involving flow in heterogeneous porous media. Initial verification is conducted using patch tests for the flow field, followed by validation of the transport problem with emphasis on preserving non-negativity of concentrations. The complete fast bimolecular reaction scenario is then solved, yielding spatial distributions of reactants and product species. Results demonstrate that the PINNs-based approach effectively captures sharp, mixing-limited reaction fronts and dispersive mixing behavior, offering reliable predictions of reactive plume evolution. These capabilities are crucial for evaluating long-term subsurface behavior in applications such as fluid storage, energy extraction, and efficient extraction of critical minerals.

42 ENGINEERING↗

On the pressure and temperature dependence of adsorption densities and other thermodynamic properties in gas shales

Black shale source rocks have become a key natural gas resource in the US and China. Unlike in conventional hydrocarbon reservoirs, a significant fraction of the gas in shales is adsorbed onto the inordinate specific surface areas (SSA) of micropores inside organic matter with densities exceeding those of bulk gas by an order of magnitude. Yet, the distribution of adsorbed versus bulk gas remains poorly understood. Experiments measure excess adsorption isotherms, which are corrected to absolute adsorption amounts by a factor that involves the density, ρ abs , of the adsorption layer(s). Constant values of ρ abs are widely used in the literature but, we argue, are inconsistent with the pressure- and temperature-dependence of adsorption behavior. In this work, we propose a more reliable approach that assumes a constant volume of each adsorption layer that can be determined from the SSA of the substrate. We measure nine high-pressure methane excess adsorption isotherms up to 15 MPa for three shale samples from China and Germany at temperatures of 65, 75, and 95 °C, and low-pressure carbon dioxide and nitrogen isotherms to estimate the SSA. We also investigate another 24 isotherms at 35, 50, and 60° C or 8 Chinese shale samples and 3 isotherms at 60, 90, and 120° C for an Argentinian shale sample from the literature. A new variation of the multi-layer Ono-Kondo lattice model is introduced to derive the temperature and pressure dependent adsorption layer densities, which are subsequently used to obtain the absolute adsorption isotherms of interest. Finally, this practical methodology has the potential to significantly improve our estimates of shale gas-in-place resources, and adsorption modeling more broadly.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Agile manufacturing: The factory of the future

The factory of the future will require an operating methodology which effectively utilizes all of the elements of product design, manufacturing and delivery. The process must respond rapidly to changes in product demand, product mix, design changes or changes in the raw materials. To achieve agility in a manufacturing operation, the design and development of the manufacturing processes must focus on customer satisfaction. Achieving greatest results requires that the manufacturing process be considered from product concept through sales. This provides the best opportunity to build a quality product for the customer at a reasonable rate. The primary elements of a manufacturing system include people, equipment, materials, methods and the environment. The most significant and most agile element in any process is the human resource. Only with a highly trained, knowledgeable work force can the proper methods be applied to efficiently process materials with machinery which is predictable, reliable and flexible. This paper discusses the affect of each element on the development of agile manufacturing systems.

Loibl, Joseph M.↗

Latent demand for electricity in sub-Saharan Africa: A review

Universal access to electricity is an essential part of sub-Saharan Africa's path to development. With the United Nations setting Goal 7 of its sustainable development goals to be universal access to clean, reliable and affordable electricity, substantial research efforts have been made to optimize electricity supply based on projected demand in sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. Our study reviews the literature on electricity demand, with a specific focus on latent demand (i.e., electricity demand that would exist if the necessary techno-economic conditions were met) in SSA. We found that out of 57 electricity demand papers reviewed, only 3 (5%) incorporated latent demand in their electricity demand projections. Furthermore, majority of the literature on electricity consumption and demand estimation in SSA use econometric models to identify determinants of electricity consumption and project future demand. We find that population density, urbanization, household income, electricity price, market value of crops and availability of natural resources to be significant determinants of electricity consumption in SSA. We conclude the review by proposing a methodology, and providing an initial proof of concept, for more accurately projecting latent demand in sub-Saharan Africa. Incorporating latent demand in electrification models would help inform energy sector stakeholders (e.g., investors and policymakers) about which sectors and geographic locations hold potential for wealth creation via electricity access.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗