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At least 1,297 records · Page 72
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Human in vitro metabolism of an environmental mixture of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) found at the Portland Harbor Superfund Site

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are widespread environmental contaminants that pose health risks to humans. Toxicity testing approaches of PAHs have evolved from traditional rodent models to New Approach Methodologies (NAMs), such as high-throughput screening in zebrafish, enabling rapid evaluation of chemical hazards. However, translating toxicity findings from laboratory systems to humans remains difficult due to complexity and species-specific differences. Chemical dosimetry modeling offers a quantitative framework to bridge this gap, but its accuracy depends on robust knowledge of PAH metabolism. The objective of this study was to measure human metabolism rates of Supermix-10, the ten most abundant PAHs found at the Portland Harbor Superfund Site, to support development of human pharmacokinetic models. We incubated individual PAHs from Supermix-10 in pooled human liver microsomes and quantified parent PAH disappearance using high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) with UV and florescent detection. To assess the potential of mixture interactions, we also measured metabolism of all 10 compounds in an equimolar mixture and compared rates of parent disappearance to those observed for individual PAHs. All Supermix-10 PAHs demonstrated rapid parent compound disappearance in human hepatic microsomes. PAHs grouped into three metabolism patterns: high metabolism rates and capacity (2-methylnaphthalene, acenaphthylene, fluorene, naphthalene), high affinity metabolism that rapidly achieves low-level saturation (benzo[a]anthracene, chrysene), and moderate metabolism rates and capacity (fluoranthene, pyrene, retene, phenanthrene). Smaller PAHs exhibited faster metabolism, and higher metabolism rates correlated inversely with molecular weight. When incubated in an equimolar mixture, Supermix-10 demonstrated significantly slower metabolism (47–89 %) compared to metabolism of individual PAHs at the same concentration. These findings enhance our understanding of PAH metabolism in humans and demonstrate significant mixture interactions under the conditions tested. Furthermore, our findings offer insights into the metabolic behavior of Supermix-10 and provide critical metabolism rate data to support the development of physiological based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models. Dosimetry models can translate PAH chemical dosimetry from high-throughput testing platforms, like zebrafish and cellular system assays, to human exposures enhancing the accuracy and reliability of PAH risk assessments.

2-methylnaphthalene↗
DOE OSTI2020

Laser-system model for enhanced operational performance and flexibility on OMEGA EP

The development of laser performance models having real-time prediction capability for the OMEGA EP laser system has been essential in meeting requests from its user community for increasingly complex pulse shapes that span a wide range of energies. The laser operations model PSOPS provides rapid and accurate predictions of OMEGA EP laser-system performance in both forward and backward directions, a user-friendly interface and rapid optimization capability between shots. We describe the model’s features and show how PSOPS has allowed real-time optimization of the laser-system configuration in order to satisfy the demands of rapidly evolving experimental campaign needs. We also discuss several enhancements to laser-system performance accuracy and flexibility enabled by PSOPS.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Hydrodynamic irreversibility of non-Brownian suspensions in highly confined duct flow

The irreversible behaviour of a highly confined non-Brownian suspension of spherical particles at low Reynolds number in a Newtonian fluid is studied experimentally and numerically. In the experiment, the suspension is confined in a thin rectangular channel that prevents complete particle overlap in the narrow dimension and is subjected to an oscillatory pressure-driven flow. In the small cross-sectional dimension, particles rapidly separate to the walls, whereas in the large dimension, features reminiscent of shear-induced migration in bulk suspensions are recovered. Furthermore, as a consequence of the channel geometry and the development and application of a single-camera particle tracking method, three-dimensional particle trajectories are obtained that allow us to directly associate relative particle proximity with the observed migration. Companion simulations of a steadily flowing suspension highly confined between parallel plates are conducted using the force coupling method, which also show rapid migration to the walls as well as other salient features observed in the experiment. While we consider relatively low volume fractions compared to most prior work in the area, we nevertheless observe significant and rapid migration, which we attribute to the high degree of confinement.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

13 C-Isotope-Assisted Assessment of Metabolic Quenching During Sample Collection from Suspension Cell Cultures

Metabolomics and fluxomics are core approaches to directly profile and interrogate cellular metabolism in response to various genetic or environmental perturbations. In order to accurately measure the abundance and isotope enrichment of intracellular metabolites, cell culture samples must be rapidly harvested and cold-quenched to preserve the in vivo metabolic state of the cells at the time of sample collection. When dealing with suspension cultures, this process is complicated by the need to separate the liquid culture media from cellular biomass prior to metabolite extraction. Here, we examine the efficacy of several commonly used metabolic quenching methods, using the model cyanobacterium Synechocystis sp. PCC 6803 as an example. Multiple 13 C-labeled compounds, including 13 C-bicarbonate, 13 C-glucose and 13 C-glutamine, were used as tracers during the sample collection and cold-quenching process to assess the extent of metabolic turnover after cells were harvested from culture flasks. We show that the combination of rapid filtration followed by 100% cold (–80°C) methanol quenching exhibits the highest quenching efficiency, while mixing cell samples with a partially frozen 30% methanol slurry (–24°C) followed by centrifugation is slightly less effective at quenching metabolism but enables less laborious sample processing. By contrast, rapidly mixing the cells with a saline ice slurry (~0°C) is less effective as indicated by high isotope-labeling rates after sample harvest, while mixing the cells with 60% cold methanol (–65°C) prior to centrifugation causes significant metabolite loss. Furthermore, this study demonstrates a rigorous, quantitative, and broadly applicable method for assessing the metabolic quenching efficacy of protocols used for sample collection in metabolomics and fluxomics studies.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Numerical Simulations in Support of a Long-Term Test of Gas Production from Hydrate Accumulations on the Alaska North Slope: Reservoir Response to Interruptions of Production (Shut-Ins)

In this work, we investigate by means of numerical simulation a planned year-long field test of depressurization-induced production from a permafrost-associated hydrate reservoir on the Alaska North Slope at the site of the recently drilled Hydrate-01 Stratigraphic Test Well. The main objective of this study is to assess quantitatively the impact of temporary interruptions (well shut-ins) on the expected fluid production performance from the B1 Sand of the stratigraphic Unit B during controlled depressurization over different time scales, as well as on other relevant aspects of the system response that have the potential to significantly affect the design of the field test. We consider eight different cases of depressurization, including (a) rapid depressurization over a 60-day period to a terminal bottomhole pressure P W of 2.8 MPa and (b) a slower depressurization rate to a final P W of 0.6 MPa at the end of the year-long production test, in addition to (c) a multi-step depressurization regime and (d) a quasi-linear continuous depressurization strategy. The results of the study indicate that shut-ins obviously reduce gas release and production during and immediately after their occurrence, but their longer-term effects are strongly dependent on the depressurization regime and on the time of observation, covering the entire range of potential outcomes. Shut-ins (a) have a universally strong negative effect when quasi-linear depressurization is involved regardless of the length of the production period, and (b) have a strong positive effect in multi-step depressurization schemes that becomes apparent earlier for large initial pressure drops, but (c) can also appear to have practically no effect for slow stepwise depressurization at the end of the year-long production test. Shut-ins lead to a rapid reformation of hydrates, even to the point of disappearance of a free gas phase in the reservoir. Rapid depressurization regimes lead to early maximum rates of hydrate dissociation and gas production, while the maximum rates occur at the end of the production test for the cases of slower depressurization. Shut-ins do not appear to have a significant impact on water production, as the cessation of production is followed by higher rates production when depressurization resumes. Similarly, (a) the fraction of produced CH 4 originating from exsolution from the water, (b) the water-to-gas ratio, and (c) the rate of replenishment of produced water by boundary inflows do not appear significantly affected by shut-ins, the effects of which seem to be temporary in the majority of the cases. The study confirmed the superiority of multi-step depressurization methods as the most effective strategies for hydrate dissociation and gas production and showed that two observation wells (located at distances of 30 and 50 m from the production well) are appropriately positioned and both able to capture the P, T, and S G behavior during the fluid production and shut-ins in any of the eight cases we investigated.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Mechanistic Pathways for N 2 O Elimination from trans -R 3 Sn-O-N=N-O-SnR 3 and for Reversible Binding of CO 2 to R 3 Sn-O-SnR 3 (R = Ph, Cy)

The rate and mechanism of the elimination of N 2 O from trans-R 3 Sn-O-N=N-O-SnR 3 (R = Ph ( 1 Ph ) and R = Cy ( 1 Cy )) to form R 3 Sn-O-SnR 3 (R = Ph ( 2 Ph ) and R = Cy ( 2 Cy )) have been studied using both NMR and IR techniques to monitor the reactions in the temperature range of 39–79 °C in C 6 D 6 . Activation parameters for this reaction are ΔH ‡ = 15.8 ± 2.0 kcal·mol –1 and ΔS ‡ = –28.5 ± 5 cal·mol –1 ·K –1 for 1 Ph and ΔH ‡ = 22.7 ± 2.5 kcal·mol –1 and ΔS ‡ = –12.4 ± 6 cal·mol –1 ·K –1 for 1 Cy . Addition of O 2 , CO 2 , N 2 O, or PPh 3 to sealed tube NMR experiments did not alter in a detectable way the rate or product distribution of the reactions. Computational DFT studies of elimination of hyponitrite from trans-Me 3 Sn-O-N=N-O-SnMe 3 ( 1 Me ) yield a mechanism involving initial migration of the R 3 Sn group from O to N passing through a marginally stable intermediate product and subsequent N 2 O elimination. Reactions of 1 Ph with protic acids HX are rapid and lead to formation of R 3 SnX and trans-H 2 N 2 O 2 . Reaction of 1 Ph with the metal radical •Cr(CO) 3 C 5 Me 5 at low concentrations results in rapid evolution of N 2 O. At higher •Cr(CO) 3 C 5 Me 5 concentrations, evolution of CO 2 rather than N 2 O is observed. Addition of 1 atm or less CO 2 to benzene or toluene solutions of 2 Ph and 2 Cy resulted in very rapid reaction to form the corresponding carbonates R 3 Sn-O-C(=O)-O-SnR 3 (R = Ph ( 3 Ph ) and R = Cy ( 3 Cy )) at room temperature. Evacuation results in fast loss of bound CO 2 and regeneration of 2 Ph and 2 Cy . Variable temperature data for formation of 3 Cy yield ΔH o = –8.7 ± 0.6 kcal·mol –1 , ΔS o = –17.1 ± 2.0 cal·mol –1 ·K –1 , and ΔG o 298K = –3.6 ± 1.2 kcal·mol –1 . Furthermore, DFT studies were performed and provide additional insight into the energetics and mechanisms for the reactions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Experimental Evidence of Dioxole Unimolecular Decay Pathway for Isoprene-Derived Criegee Intermediates

Ozonolysis of isoprene, one of the most abundant volatile organic compounds emitted into the Earth’s atmosphere, generates two four-carbon unsaturated Criegee intermediates, methyl vinyl ketone oxide (MVK-oxide) and methacrolein oxide (MACR-oxide). The extended conjugation between the vinyl substituent and carbonyl oxide groups of these Criegee intermediates facilitates rapid electrocyclic ring closures that form 5-membered cyclic peroxides, known as dioxoles. This research discusses the first experimental evidence of this novel decay pathway, which is predicted to be the dominant atmospheric sink for specific conformational forms of MVK-oxide (anti) and MACR-oxide (syn) with the vinyl substituent adjacent to the terminal O atom. The resulting dioxoles are predicted to undergo rapid unimolecular decay to oxygenated hydrocarbon radical products, including acetyl, vinoxy, formyl, and 2-methyl-vinoxy radicals. In the presence of O 2 , these radicals rapidly react to form peroxy radicals (ROO), which quickly decay via carbon-centered radical intermediates (QOOH) to stable carbonyl products that are identified in this work. The carbonyl products are detected under thermal conditions (298 K, 10 torr He) using multiplexed photoionization mass spectrometry (MPIMS). The main products (and associated relative abundances) originating from unimolecular decay of anti-MVK-oxide and subsequent reaction with O 2 are formaldehyde (88 ± 5%), ketene (9 ± 1%) and glyoxal (3 ± 1%). Those identified from the unimolecular decay of syn-MACR-oxide and subsequent reaction of O 2 are acetaldehyde (37 ± 7%), vinyl alcohol (9 ± 1%), methylketene (2 ± 1%), and acrolein (52 ± 5%). In addition to the stable carbonyl products, the secondary peroxy chemistry also generates OH or HO 2 radical co-products.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2024

CH 3 Radical Generation in Microplasmas for Up-Conversion of Methane

The conversion of methane, CH 4 , into higher value chemicals using low temperature plasmas is challenged by both improving efficiency and selectivity. One path towards selectivity is capturing plasma produced methyl radicals, CH 3 , in a solvent for aqueous processing. Due to the rapid reactions of methyl radicals in the gas phase, the transport distance from production of the CH 3 to its solvation should be short, which then motivates the use of microplasmas. The generation of CH 3 in Ar/CH 4 /H 2 O plasmas produced in nanosecond pulsed dielectric barrier discharge microplasmas is discussed using results from a computational investigation. The microplasma is sustained in the channel of a microfluidic chip in which the solvent flows along one wall or in droplets. CH 3 is primarily produced by electron-impact of and dissociative excitation transfer to CH 4 , as well as CH 2 reacting with CH 4 . CH 3 is rapidly consumed to form C 2 H 6 which, in spite of being subject to these same dissociative processes, accumulates over time, as do other stable products including C 3 H 8 and CH 3 OH. The gas mixture and electrical properties were varied to assess their effects on CH 3 production. CH 3 production is largest with 5% CH 4 in the Ar/CH 4 /H 2 O mixture due to an optimal balance of electron-impact dissociation, which increases with CH 4 percentage, and dissociative excitation transfer and CH 2 reacting with CH 4 , which decrease with CH 4 percentage. Design parameters of the microchannels were also investigated. Increasing the permittivity of the dielectrics in contact with the plasma increased the ionization wave intensity which increased CH 3 production. Increased energy deposition per pulse generally increased CH 3 production as does lengthening pulse length up to a certain point. The arrangement of the solvent flow in the microchannel can also affect the CH 3 density and fluence to the solvent. The fluence of CH 3 to the liquid solvent is increased if the liquid is immersed in the plasma as a droplet or is a layer on the wall where the ionization wave terminates. The solvation dynamics of CH 3 with varying numbers of droplets was also examined. Here, the maximum density of solvated methyl radicals CH 3aq occurs with a large number of droplets in the plasma. However, the solvated CH 3aq density can rapidly decrease due to desolvation, emphasizing the need to quickly react the solvated species in the solvent.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Spectroscopic Studies of Charge-Transfer Character and Photoresponses of F 4 TCNQ-Based Donor–Acceptor Complexes

F 4 TCNQ (2,3,5,6-tetrafluoro-7,7,8,8-tetracyanoquinodimethane) is used widely as a hole-doping agent in photoresponsive organic semiconducting materials, yet relatively little is known about the photoresponses of the F 4 TCNQ· - anion generated via doping. Furthermore, there is still relatively little systematic exploration of how the properties of the local material or chemical environment impacts the driving force for generating these charge-transfer complexes. Here we present spectroscopic and photophysical studies of F 4 TCNQ in charge-transfer complexes (CTCs) with the electron donor N,N’-Diphenyl-N-N’-di-p-tolylbenzene-1,4-diamine (MPDA) both in dichloroethane solution and polystyrene matrices. Integer charge transfer (ICT) between donor and acceptor occurs readily in dichloroethane solvent to form F 4 TCNQ· - :MPDA + CTCs, due to a ~150 mV difference in MPDA + /MPDA and F 4 TCNQ/F 4 TCNQ· - reduction potentials. Ultrafast spectroscopic studies of the CTC as well as electrochemically generated F 4 TCNQ· - and MDPA + reveal that the photoresponses of these CTCs are dominated by that of the dopant anion, including rapid deactivation (800 fs) after excitation to the anion D 1 excited state, followed by slower (~10 ps) vibrational cooling in the anion D 0 state. Excitation to the higher-lying D 2 state results in a rapid relaxation to the D 1 state, in contrast to direct D 2 -D 0 relaxation previously observed for F 4 TCNQ· - in gas phase. CTCs embedded in polystyrene (PS) matrices are observed to lose their integer charge-transfer character upon evaporation of solvent, as evidenced by changes to electronic and vibrational absorption features associated with F 4 TCNQ· - . This change is attributed to the loss of solvent stabilization of the ion pair formed through the charge-transfer reaction. Ultrafast spectral measurements reveal that the photoresponses of the partial charge-transfer (PCT) species embedded in PS are still highly similar to those of the ICT species and unlike that of neutral F 4 TCNQ, implying the electronic properties of the PCT state are likewise dominated by properties of the reduced acceptor molecule. We conclude that excitation of ICT or PCT states introduces optical losses for photoresponses of doped organic semiconductor materials due to the large anion absorption cross section and its rapid, dissipative deactivation dynamics.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Ultrafast population and structural dynamics of a Ni-bipyridine photoredox catalyst reveal a significant deactivation pathway

The ultrafast excited state pathways and dynamics of NiII-bipyridine complexes influence the yield of photochemical processes involved in their catalytic cross-coupling reactions. Here we present ultrafast Ni K x-ray emission spectroscopy (XES) and x-ray solution scattering (XSS) of a NiII-bipyridine aryl halide complex, [Ni(t-Bubpy)(o-tol)Br], to quantify the excited state population dynamics and structural changes of the pre-catalyst. Due to the local spin-sensitivity of XES, the population dynamics of metal-to-ligand charge transfer (MLCT) and metal-centered (MC) excited states is established. A rapid ground state recovery pathway is newly identified, representing a significant deactivation pathway during photocatalysis. Furthermore, the pseudotetrahedral structure of the long-lived MC excited state is unambiguously identified and refined by XSS. The results advance our understanding of the ultrafast relaxation mechanisms that impact the photocatalytic mechanism and yield for NiII-bipyridine aryl halide cross-coupling catalysts.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Computational and Experimental Evaluation of Peroxide Oxidants for Amine-Peroxide Redox Polymerization

Amine–peroxide redox polymerization (APRP) is the prevalent method for producing radical-based polymers in the many industrial and medical applications where light or heat activation is impractical. We recently developed a detailed description of the APRP initiation process through a combined computational and experimental effort to show that APRP proceeds through SN2 attack by the amine on the peroxide, followed by the rate-determining homolysis of the resulting intermediate. Using this new mechanistic understanding, a variety of peroxides were computationally predicted to initiate APRP with fast kinetics. In particular, the rate of APRP initiation can be improved by radical and anion stabilization through increased p-electron conjugation or by increasing the electrophilicity of the peroxy bond through the addition of electron-withdrawing groups. On the other hand, the addition of electron-donating groups lowered the initiation rate. These design principles enabled the computational prediction of several new peroxides that exhibited improved initiation rates over the commonly used benzoyl peroxide. For example, the addition of nitro groups (NO2) to the para positions of benzoyl peroxide resulted in a theoretical radical generation rate of 1.9 × 10–9 s–1, which is ~150 times faster than the 1.3 × 10–11 s–1 radical generation rate observed with unsubstituted benzoyl peroxide. These accelerated kinetics enabled the development of a redox-based direct-writing process that exploited the extremely rapid reactivity of an optimized redox pair with a custom inkjet printer, capable of printing custom shapes from polymerizing resins without heat or light. Furthermore, the application of more rapid APRP kinetics could enable the acceleration of existing industrial processes, make new industrial manufacturing methods possible, and improve APRP compatibility with biomedical applications through reduced initiator concentrations that still produce rapid polymerization rates.

functional polymers↗
DOE OSTI2020

Intersubband Relaxation in CdSe Colloidal Quantum Wells

The dynamics of intersubband relaxation are critical to quantum well technologies such as quantum cascade lasers and quantum well infrared photodetectors. In this work, intersubband relaxation in CdSe colloidal quantum wells, or nanoplatelets, is studied via pump-push-probe transient spectroscopy. An initial interband pump pulse is followed by a secondary infrared push excitation, resonant with intersubband absorption, which promotes electrons from the first conduction band of the quantum well to the second conduction band. A probe pulse monitors subsequent electron cooling to the band edge of the quantum well. Using this technique, intersubband relaxation is studied as a function of critical variables such as colloidal quantum well size and thickness, surface ligand chemistry, temperature, and excitation pulse intensity. Larger quantum well sizes, judicious selection of surface ligand chemistry (e.g., thiolates), low temperatures, and elevated push pulse fluences slow intersubband relaxation. However, compared to resonant intraband relaxation in colloidal quantum dots (up to hundreds of picoseconds), intersubband relaxation in colloidal quantum wells is rapid (<1 ps) under all examined conditions. These experiments indicate that rapid relaxation is driven by both LO phonon and surface scattering. The short time scale of relaxation observed in these materials may hinder intersubband technologies such as mid-infrared detectors, although such rapid relaxation may prove valuable in optical switching.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Exploring Approaches for Accelerated Mass Spectrometric Detection of Fluorochemicals from Aqueous Solutions Using Indirect, Adsorbent-Facilitated Desorption Ionization

There is a growing need for rapid, low-cost analytical tools to screen water supplies for persistent contaminants. Due to their ubiquitous presence in the environment and their detrimental effects on human health, there is a public interest in widespread testing for perfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS). However, the most common methods for PFAS analysis can be time-intensive, requiring a preconcentration step followed by liquid chromatography–mass spectrometry (LC–MS), and are cost-prohibitive for most members of the public. To address these challenges, this study explores a novel method for rapid analysis of aqueous analytes by concentrating analytes on solid adsorbents and detecting them using mass spectrometric analysis via desorption ionization directly from the adsorbent surface. We demonstrate this general approach of indirect solution analysis (ISA) with desorption electrospray ionization (ISA-DESI) and laser desorption ionization (ISA-LDI). Various adsorbent materials were screened, including commercial mesoporous carbons, alumina, and metal–organic frameworks (MOFs). Using ISA-DESI, we consistently detect concentrations as low as 5–100 parts per trillion (ppt) for perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) and 10–100 ppt for perfluoroundecanoic acid (PFUnDA). This approach enables rapid detection in under 5 min, making it suitable for applications requiring trace detection with fast response times. We further demonstrate the use of ISA-DESI on a range of environmentally relevant contaminants. Advantages of this indirect solution analysis approach include simplified sample preparation, accelerated analysis, and low cost with readily available materials, making it a promising tool to accelerate mass spectrometric PFAS detection for identifying contaminated sites, performing laboratory studies, and monitoring industrial waste streams.

Bays, Nathan Robert [Sandia National Laboratories ↗
DOE OSTI2021

Revisiting AMOC Transport Estimates From Observations and Models

Abstract Reference level assumptions used to calculate the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation transports at the RAPID and Meridional Overturning Variability Experiment (MOVE) observing arrays are revisited in an eddying ocean model. Observational transport calculation methods are complemented by several alternative approaches. At RAPID, the model transports from the observational method and the model truth (based on the actual model velocities) agree well in their mean and variability. There are substantial differences among the transport estimates obtained with various methods at the MOVE site. These differences result from relatively large and time‐varying reference velocities at depth in the model, not supporting a level‐of‐no‐motion. The methods that account for these reference velocities properly at MOVE produce transports that are in good agreement with the model truth. In contrast with the observational estimates, the model transport trends at MOVE and RAPID largely agree with each other on pentadal to multi‐decadal time scales.

Danabasoglu, Gokhan↗
DOE OSTI2023

Hillslope-Channel Transitions and the Role of Water Tracks in a Changing Permafrost Landscape

The Arctic is experiencing rapid climate change, and the effect on hydrologic processes and resulting geomorphic changes to hillslopes and channels is unclear because we lack quantitative models and theory for rapid changes resulting from thawing permafrost. Here, the presence of permafrost modulates water flow and the stability of soil-mantled slopes, implying that there should be a signature of permafrost processes, including warming-driven disturbance, in channel network extent. To inform understanding of hillslope-channel dynamics under changing climates, we examined soil-mantled hillslopes within a ~300 km 2 area of the Seward Peninsula, western Alaska, where discontinuous permafrost is particularly susceptible to thaw and rapid landscape change. In this study, we pair high-resolution topographic and satellite data to multi-annual observations of InSAR-derived surface displacement over a 5-year period to quantify spatial variations in topographic change across an upland landscape. We find that neither the basin slope nor the presence of knickzones controls the magnitude of recent surface displacements within the study basin, as may be expected under conceptual models of temperate hillslope evolution. Rather, the highest displacement magnitudes tended to occur at the broad hillslope-channel transition zone. In this study area, this zone is occupied by water tracks, which are zero-order ecogeomorphic features that concentrate surface and subsurface flow paths. Our results suggest that water tracks, which appear to occupy hillslope positions between saturation and incision thresholds, are vulnerable to warming-induced subsidence and incision. We hypothesize that gullying within water tracks will outpace infilling by hillslope processes, resulting in the growth of the channel network under future warming.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Permafrost Formation in a Meandering River Floodplain

Abstract Permafrost influences 25% of land in the Northern Hemisphere, where it stabilizes the ground beneath communities and infrastructure and sequesters carbon. However, the coevolution of permafrost, river dynamics, and vegetation in Arctic environments remains poorly understood. As rivers meander, they erode the floodplain at cutbanks and build new land through bar deposition, creating sequences of landforms with distinct formation ages. Here we mapped these sequences along the Koyukuk River floodplain, Alaska, analyzing permafrost occurrence, and landform and vegetation types. We used radiocarbon and optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating to develop a floodplain age map. Deposit ages ranged from modern to 10 ka, with more younger deposits near the modern channel. Permafrost rapidly reached 50% areal extent in all deposits older than 200 years then gradually increased up to ∼85% extent for deposits greater than 4 Kyr old. Permafrost extent correlated with increases in black spruce and wetland abundance, as well as increases in permafrost extent within wetland, and shrub and scrub vegetation classes. We developed an inverse model to constrain permafrost formation rate as a function of air temperature. Permafrost extent initially increased by ∼25% per century, in pace with vegetation succession, before decelerating to <10% per millennia as insulating overbank mud and moss slowly accumulated. Modern permafrost extent on the Koyukuk floodplain therefore reflects a dynamic balance between widespread, time‐varying permafrost formation and rapid, localized degradation due to cutbank erosion that might trigger a rapid loss of permafrost with climatic warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

A plant-by-plant strategy for high-ambition coal power phaseout in China

More than half of current coal power capacity is in China. A key strategy for meeting China’s 2060 carbon neutrality goal and the global 1.5 °C climate goal is to rapidly shift away from unabated coal use. Here we detail how to structure a high-ambition coal phaseout in China while balancing multiple national needs. We evaluate the 1037 currently operating coal plants based on comprehensive technical, economic and environmental criteria and develop a metric for prioritizing plants for early retirement. We find that 18% of plants consistently score poorly across all three criteria and are thus low-hanging fruits for rapid retirement. We develop plant-by-plant phaseout strategies for each province by combining our retirement algorithm with an integrated assessment model. With rapid retirement of the low-hanging fruits, other existing plants can operate with a 20- or 30-year minimum lifetime and gradually reduced utilization to achieve the 1.5 °C or well-below 2 °C climate goals, respectively, with complete phaseout by 2045 and 2055.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Swift and extensive Omicron outbreak in China after sudden exit from ‘zero-COVID’ policy

In late 2022, China transitioned from a strict ‘zero-COVID’ policy to rapidly abandoning nearly all interventions and data reporting. This raised great concern about the presumably-rapid but unreported spread of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant in a very large population of very low pre-existing immunity. By modeling a combination of case count and survey data, we show that Omicron spread extremely rapidly, at a rate of 0.42/day (95% credibility interval: [0.35, 0.51]/day), translating to an epidemic doubling time of 1.6 days ([1.6, 2.0] days) after the full exit from zero-COVID on Dec. 7, 2022. Consequently, we estimate that the vast majority of the population (97% [95%, 99%], sensitivity analysis lower limit of 90%) was infected during December, with the nation-wide epidemic peaking on Dec. 23. Overall, our results highlight the extremely high transmissibility of the variant and the importance of proper design of intervention exit strategies to avoid large infection waves.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗