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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Multirobot Collaborative Pursuit Target Robot by Improved MADDPG

Policy formulation is one of the main problems in multirobot systems, especially in multirobot pursuit-evasion scenarios, where both sparse rewards and random environment changes bring great difficulties to find better strategy. Existing multirobot decision-making methods mostly use environmental rewards to promote robots to complete the target task that cannot achieve good results. This paper proposes a multirobot pursuit method based on improved multiagent deep deterministic policy gradient (MADDPG), which solves the problem of sparse rewards in multirobot pursuit-evasion scenarios by combining the intrinsic reward and the external environment. The state similarity module based on the threshold constraint is as a part of the intrinsic reward signal output by the intrinsic curiosity module, which is used to balance overexploration and insufficient exploration, so that the agent can use the intrinsic reward more effectively to learn better strategies. The simulation experiment results show that the proposed method can improve the reward value of robots and the success rate of the pursuit task significantly. The intuitive change is obviously reflected in the real-time distance between the pursuer and the escapee, the pursuer using the improved algorithm for training can get closer to the escapee more quickly, and the average following distance also decreases.

Zhou, Xiao↗
DOE OSTI2014

A continuation multilevel Monte Carlo algorithm

Here, we propose a novel Continuation Multi Level Monte Carlo (CMLMC) algorithm for weak approximation of stochastic models. The CMLMC algorithm solves the given approximation problem for a sequence of decreasing tolerances, ending when the required error tolerance is satisfied. CMLMC assumes discretization hierarchies that are defined a priori for each level and are geometrically refined across levels. Moreover, the actual choice of computational work across levels is based on parametric models for the average cost per sample and the corresponding variance and weak error. These parameters are calibrated using Bayesian estimation, taking particular notice of the deepest levels of the discretization hierarchy, where only few realizations are available to produce the estimates. The resulting CMLMC estimator exhibits a non-trivial splitting between bias and statistical contributions. We also show the asymptotic normality of the statistical error in the MLMC estimator and justify in this way our error estimate that allows prescribing both required accuracy and confidence in the final result. Our numerical results substantiate the above results and illustrate the corresponding computational savings in examples that are described in terms of differential equations either driven by random measures or with random coefficients.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Machine-learning based approach to examine ecological processes influencing the diversity of riverine dissolved organic matter composition

Dissolved organic matter (DOM) assemblages in freshwater rivers are formed from mixtures of simple to complex compounds that are highly variable across time and space. These mixtures largely form due to the environmental heterogeneity of river networks and the contribution of diverse allochthonous and autochthonous DOM sources. Most studies are, however, confined to local and regional scales, which precludes an understanding of how these mixtures arise at large, e.g., continental, spatial scales. The processes contributing to these mixtures are also difficult to study because of the complex interactions between various environmental factors and DOM. Here we propose the use of machine learning (ML) approaches to identify ecological processes contributing toward mixtures of DOM at a continental-scale. We related a dataset that characterized the molecular composition of DOM from river water and sediment with Fourier-transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry to explanatory physicochemical variables such as nutrient concentrations and stable water isotopes ( 2 H and 18 O). Using unsupervised ML, distinctive clusters for sediment and water samples were identified, with unique molecular compositions influenced by environmental factors like terrestrial input and microbial activity. Sediment clusters showed a higher proportion of protein-like and unclassified compounds than water clusters, while water clusters exhibited a more diversified chemical composition. We then applied a supervised ML approach, involving a two-stage use of SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) values. In the first stage, SHAP values were obtained and used to identify key physicochemical variables. These parameters were employed to train models using both the default and subsequently tuned hyperparameters of the Histogram-based Gradient Boosting (HGB) algorithm. The supervised ML approach, using HGB and SHAP values, highlighted complex relationships between environmental factors and DOM diversity, in particular the existence of dams upstream, precipitation events, and other watershed characteristics were important in predicting higher chemical diversity in DOM. Our data-driven approach can now be used more generally to reveal the interplay between physical, chemical, and biological factors in determining the diversity of DOM in other ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Shape effects on the local dynamics of suspensions of spheroidal particles

The effect of shape on the dynamics of suspensions of non-spherical heavy particles is examined by fully resolved numerical simulations of oblate and prolate spheroids, as well as spheres, for a density ratio of ten, volume fractions ranging from 0.5% to 5%, and Reynolds numbers between 20 and 30. The dynamics is determined both by the interactions of the particles with the fluid as well as by collisions, with the number and importance of collisions increasing with volume fractions. A single isolated oblate or prolate spheroid falling under gravity generally falls broadside on, for the governing parameters examined here, and at low-volume fractions, the majority of particles in a suspension fall that way. At higher-volume fractions, the orientation is more random. The slip velocity decreases as the volume fraction increases for all shapes, as expected, but the effect of the shape is much less than seen for a single particle. Furthermore, this seems to be due to two effects. For all volume fractions, the most deformed particles cluster more than spheres and less deformed particles, which increases their slip velocity. As the concentration increases, the increased particle interactions also causes more particles to fall short side-on, which reduces the frontal area and the resulting drag, increasing the slip velocity. This second effect is, of course, absent for spherical particles.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Structure-aware Initialization via Numerical Continuation and Informed Priors

Scientific machine learning (SciML) often operates in ill-conditioned, weakly identifiable regimes due to limited data or indirect observations. In such settings, optimization and inference are highly sensitive to the starting point, making initialization--often under-reported--a consequential degree of freedom. Random initialization is not a neutral default as it induces an implicit prior over candidate solutions and can systematically bias the result, producing large run-to-run variability. Here, we formalize this view by treating initialization as a hidden confounder in SciML and develop a unifying theory for structure-aware initialization via numerical continuation, constructing warm starts from related problem instances. Across representative tasks, including physics-informed neural networks, maximum likelihood estimation, and variational inference, warm starts have been shown to consistently reduce optimization effort and improve reliability.

Data integrity↗
DOE OSTI2021

The PENELOPE Physics Models and Transport Mechanics. Implementation into Geant4

A translation of the PENELOPE physics subroutines to C++, designed as an extension of the GEANT4 toolkit, is presented. The Fortran code system PENELOPE performs Monte Carlo simulation of coupled electron-photon transport in arbitrary materials for a wide energy range, nominally from 50 eV up to 1 GeV. PENELOPE implements the most reliable interaction models that are currently available, limited only by the required generality of the code. In addition, the transport of electrons and positrons is simulated by means of an elaborate class II scheme in which hard interactions (involving deflection angles or energy transfers larger than pre-defined cutoffs) are simulated from the associated restricted differential cross sections. After a brief description of the interaction models adopted for photons and electrons/positrons, we describe the details of the class-II algorithm used for tracking electrons and positrons. The C++ classes are adapted to the specific code structure of GEANT4. They provide a complete description of the interactions and transport mechanics of electrons/positrons and photons in arbitrary materials, which can be activated from the G4ProcessManager to produce simulation results equivalent to those from the original PENELOPE programs. The combined code, named PENG4, benefits from the multi-threading capabilities and advanced geometry and statistical tools of GEANT4.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2023

Parallelized domain decomposition for multi-dimensional Lagrangian random walk mass-transfer particle tracking schemes

Lagrangian particle tracking schemes allow a wide range of flow and transport processes to be simulated accurately, but a major challenge is numerically implementing the inter-particle interactions in an efficient manner. This article develops a multi-dimensional, parallelized domain decomposition (DDC) strategy for mass-transfer particle tracking (MTPT) methods in which particles exchange mass dynamically. We show that this can be efficiently parallelized by employing large numbers of CPU cores to accelerate run times. In order to validate the approach and our theoretical predictions we focus our efforts on a well-known benchmark problem with pure diffusion, where analytical solutions in any number of dimensions are well established. In this work, we investigate different procedures for “tiling” the domain in two and three dimensions (2-D and 3-D), as this type of formal DDC construction is currently limited to 1-D. An optimal tiling is prescribed based on physical problem parameters and the number of available CPU cores, as each tiling provides distinct results in both accuracy and run time. We further extend the most efficient technique to 3-D for comparison, leading to an analytical discussion of the effect of dimensionality on strategies for implementing DDC schemes. Increasing computational resources (cores) within the DDC method produces a trade-off between inter-node communication and on-node work. For an optimally subdivided diffusion problem, the 2-D parallelized algorithm achieves nearly perfect linear speedup in comparison with the serial run-up to around 2700 cores, reducing a 5 h simulation to 8 s, while the 3-D algorithm maintains appreciable speedup up to 1700 cores.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Impact of dynamics, entanglement and Markovian noise on the fidelity of few-qubit digital quantum simulation

Quantum algorithms have been proposed to accelerate the simulation of the chaotic dynamical systems that are ubiquitous in the physics of plasmas. Quantum computers without error correction might even use noise to their advantage to calculate the Lyapunov exponent by measuring the Loschmidt echo fidelity decay rate. For the first time, digital Hamiltonian simulations of the quantum sawtooth map, performed on the IBM-Q quantum hardware platform, show that the fidelity decay rate of a digital quantum simulation increases during the transition from dynamical localization to chaotic diffusion in the map. The observed error per CNOT gate increases by $1.5{\times }$ as the dynamics varies from localized to diffusive, while only changing the phases of virtual RZ gates and keeping the overall gate count constant. A gate-based Lindblad noise model that captures the effective change in relaxation and dephasing errors during gate operation qualitatively explains the effect of dynamics on fidelity as being due to the localization and entanglement of the states created. Specifically, highly delocalized states that are entangled with random phases show an increased sensitivity to dephasing and, on average, a similar sensitivity to relaxation as localized states. In contrast, delocalized unentangled states show an increased sensitivity to dephasing but a lower sensitivity to relaxation. This gate-based Lindblad model is shown to be a useful benchmarking tool by estimating the effective Lindblad coherence times during CNOT gates and finding a consistent $2\unicode{x2013}3{\times }$ shorter $T_2$ time than reported for idle qubits. Thus, the interplay of the dynamics of a simulation with the noise processes that are active can strongly influence the overall fidelity decay rate.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Random circuit block-encoded matrix and a proposal of quantum LINPACK benchmark

The LINPACK benchmark reports the performance of a computer for solving a system of linear equations with dense random matrices. Although this task was not designed with a real application directly in mind, the LINPACK benchmark has been used to define the list of TOP500 supercomputers since the debut of the list in 1993. We propose that a similar benchmark, called the quantum LINPACK benchmark, could be used to measure the whole machine performance of quantum computers. The success of the quantum LINPACK benchmark should be viewed as the minimal requirement for a quantum computer to perform a useful task of solving linear algebra problems, such as linear systems of equations. We propose an input model called the Random Circuit Block-Encoded Matrix (RACBEM), which is a proper generalization of a dense random matrix in the quantum setting. The RACBEM model is efficient to be implemented on a quantum computer and can be designed to optimally adapt to any given quantum architecture, with relying on a black-box quantum compiler. Besides solving linear systems, the RACBEM model can be used to perform a variety of linear algebra tasks relevant to many physical applications, such as computing spectral measures, time series generated by a Hamiltonian simulation, and thermal averages of the energy. We implement these linear algebra operations on IBM Q quantum devices as well as quantum virtual machines, and demonstrate their performance in solving scientific computing problems.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2025

Algorithms for coordinate reconstruction in position-sensitive virtual Frisch-grid detectors

Arrays of position-sensitive virtual Frisch-grid (VFG) CdZnTe (CZT) detectors provide a cost-effective solution for integrating large-area arrays for gamma-ray imaging and spectroscopy. These detectors employ high-aspect ratio CZT crystals (bars) with thicknesses up to 50 mm and cross-sections of up to 10 × 10 mm 2 . Despite the long drift distances of charge carriers in such crystals, the detectors have demonstrated excellent performance, achieving energy resolutions better than 1 % full width at half maximum (FWHM) at 662 keV and 3D position resolutions finer than 1 mm. The high spatial resolution is a critical feature of these detectors, as it enables correction of response non-uniformities caused by crystal defects, which remain present even in the highest-quality CZT material. Dislocations and dislocation walls are the primary defects responsible for variations in charge carrier losses as they drift from the interaction points toward the charge-collecting electrodes. The mechanism by which these defects affect carrier transport is generally well understood. Dislocations and sub-grain boundaries act as sinks for carrier-trapping centers, primarily impurities and secondary phases such as tellurium inclusions and precipitates. Here, these regions exhibit significantly higher carrier-trapping rates, leading to variations in the μτ-products. Because the locations of these micron-sized regions are fixed within the detector volume, fluctuations in the total collected charge arise from the random distribution of interaction sites. This results in non-uniform detector responses and degradation of energy resolution. However, by measuring the interaction-site locations with sufficient precision, charge-loss variations can be accurately corrected, allowing recovery of nearly intrinsic energy resolution.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2013

Prediction of human observer performance in a 2-alternative forced choice low-contrast detection task using channelized Hotelling observer: Impact of radiation dose and reconstruction algorithms

Purpose: Efficient optimization of CT protocols demands a quantitative approach to predicting human observer performance on specific tasks at various scan and reconstruction settings. The goal of this work was to investigate how well a channelized Hotelling observer (CHO) can predict human observer performance on 2-alternative forced choice (2AFC) lesion-detection tasks at various dose levels and two different reconstruction algorithms: a filtered-backprojection (FBP) and an iterative reconstruction (IR) method. Methods: A 35 Multiplication-Sign 26 cm{sup 2} torso-shaped phantom filled with water was used to simulate an average-sized patient. Three rods with different diameters (small: 3 mm; medium: 5 mm; large: 9 mm) were placed in the center region of the phantom to simulate small, medium, and large lesions. The contrast relative to background was -15 HU at 120 kV. The phantom was scanned 100 times using automatic exposure control each at 60, 120, 240, 360, and 480 quality reference mAs on a 128-slice scanner. After removing the three rods, the water phantom was again scanned 100 times to provide signal-absent background images at the exact same locations. By extracting regions of interest around the three rods and on the signal-absent images, the authors generated 21 2AFC studies. Each 2AFC study had 100 trials, with each trial consisting of a signal-present image and a signal-absent image side-by-side in randomized order. In total, 2100 trials were presented to both the model and human observers. Four medical physicists acted as human observers. For the model observer, the authors used a CHO with Gabor channels, which involves six channel passbands, five orientations, and two phases, leading to a total of 60 channels. The performance predicted by the CHO was compared with that obtained by four medical physicists at each 2AFC study. Results: The human and model observers were highly correlated at each dose level for each lesion size for both FBP and IR. The Pearson's product-moment correlation coefficients were 0.986 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.958-0.996] for FBP and 0.985 (95% CI: 0.863-0.998) for IR. Bland-Altman plots showed excellent agreement for all dose levels and lesions sizes with a mean absolute difference of 1.0%{+-} 1.1% for FBP and 2.1%{+-} 3.3% for IR. Conclusions: Human observer performance on a 2AFC lesion detection task in CT with a uniform background can be accurately predicted by a CHO model observer at different radiation dose levels and for both FBP and IR methods.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

The SprayList: a scalable relaxed priority queue

High-performance concurrent priority queues are essential for applications such as task scheduling and discrete event simulation. Unfortunately, even the best performing implementations do not scale past a number of threads in the single digits. This is because of the sequential bottleneck in accessing the elements at the head of the queue in order to perform a DeleteMin operation. In this paper, we present the SprayList, a scalable priority queue with relaxed ordering semantics. Starting from a non-blocking SkipList, the main innovation behind our design is that the DeleteMin operations avoid a sequential bottleneck by ``spraying'' themselves onto the head of the SkipList list in a coordinated fashion. The spraying is implemented using a carefully designed random walk, so that DeleteMin returns an element among the first O(p log^3 p) in the list, with high probability, where p is the number of threads. We prove that the running time of a DeleteMin operation is O(log^3 p), with high probability, independent of the size of the list. Our experiments show that the relaxed semantics allow the data structure to scale for high thread counts, comparable to a classic unordered SkipList. As a result, we observe that, for reasonably parallel workloads, the scalability benefits of relaxation considerably outweigh the additional work due to out-of-order execution.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Prediction of vacancy defect diffusion paths in high entropy alloys via machine learning on molecular dynamics data

Identifying the diffusion path of point defects is a critical step in understanding their evolution and the mechanisms of related phenomena. Defect diffusion occurs at small length and time scales, with impacts on material properties that may continue to evolve over ns to μs, ms, and the continuum scale (s, min, etc., and cm, m, etc.). The time scale accessible to molecular dynamics (MD) simulations is limited by small step sizes, typically in the fs range. Thus, surrogate models of MD simulations through machine learning (ML)-based algorithms are of great interest, especially for complex systems such as high entropy alloys (HEAs). In this work, dynamics governing vacancy migration in HEA were approximated with graph convolutional network (GCN) models as ansatzes for kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) rate catalogs. Network design considered that diffusion in crystalline solids generally depends on interactions between defects and their immediate neighbor atoms. Graphs represented the vacancy surroundings, MD-generated trajectories provided training and comparison datasets, and unsupervised GCN models approximated interatomic dynamics governing vacancy migration in HEAs as ansatzes for KMC. A proof-of-concept model trained on MD data for the Fe, Ni, Cr, Co, and Cu HEA environment was used with two different neighbor interactions to assess the feasibility of training a GCN to predict vacancy defect transition rates in the HEA environment. The resulting setup rapidly generated MD-formatted synthetic trajectories based on dynamics learned from the MD training set, with a time acceleration of roughly two orders of magnitude and a similar diffusion coefficient to MD observations. Additionally, Nudged Elastic Band (NEB) calculations were performed on randomly generated FeNiCrCoCu HEA structures to determine vacancy migration barriers across nearest-neighbor sites. Transition probabilities for each jump, categorized by atomic type, were extracted from these calculations. NEB-based and GCN-based approaches led to similar outcomes.

Reimer, C↗
DOE OSTI2020

Physics-guided machine learning approaches to predict the ideal stability properties of fusion plasmas

One of the biggest challenges to achieve the goal of producing fusion energy in tokamak devices is the necessity of avoiding disruptions of the plasma current due to instabilities. The disruption event characterization and forecasting (DECAF) framework has been developed in this purpose, integrating physics models of many causal events that can lead to a disruption. Two different machine learning approaches are proposed to improve the ideal magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) no-wall limit component of the kinetic stability model included in DECAF. First, a random forest regressor (RFR), was adopted to reproduce the DCON computed change in plasma potential energy without wall effects for a large database of equilibria from the national spherical torus experiment (NSTX). This tree-based method provides an analysis of the importance of each input feature, giving an insight into the underlying physics phenomena. Secondly, a fully-connected neural network has been trained on sets of calculations with the DCON code, to get an improved closed form equation of the no-wall β limit as a function of the relevant plasma parameters indicated by the RFR. The neural network has been guided by physics theory of ideal MHD in its extension outside the domain of the NSTX experimental data. The estimated value has been incorporated into the DECAF kinetic stability model and tested against a set of experimentally stable and unstable discharges. Moreover, the neural network results were used to simulate a real-time stability assessment using only quantities available in real-time. Finally, the portability of the model was investigated, showing encouraging results by testing the NSTX-trained algorithm on the mega ampere spherical tokamak (MAST).

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2018

Scanning the skeleton of the 4D F-theory landscape

Using a one-way Monte Carlo algorithm from several different starting points, we get an approximation to the distribution of toric threefold bases that can be used in four-dimensional F-theory compactification. We separate the threefold bases into “resolvable” ones where the Weierstrass polynomials (f, g) can vanish to order (4, 6) or higher on codimension-two loci and the “good” bases where these (4, 6) loci are not allowed. A simple estimate suggests that the number of distinct resolvable base geometries exceeds 10 3000 , with over 10 250 “good” bases, though the actual numbers are likely much larger. We find that the good bases are concentrated at specific “end points” with special isolated values of h 1,1 that are bigger than 1,000. These end point bases give Calabi-Yau fourfolds with specific Hodge numbers mirror to elliptic fibrations over simple threefolds. The non-Higgsable gauge groups on the end point bases are almost entirely made of products of E 8 , F 4 , G 2 and SU(2). Nonetheless, we find a large class of good bases with a single non-Higgsable SU(3). Moreover, by randomly contracting the end point bases, we find many resolvable bases with h 1,1 (B) ~ 50-200 that cannot be contracted to another smooth threefold base.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Tensor Network Quantum Virtual Machine for Simulating Quantum Circuits at Exascale

The numerical simulation of quantum circuits is an indispensable tool for development, verification, and validation of hybrid quantum-classical algorithms intended for near-term quantum co-processors. The emergence of exascale high-performance computing (HPC) platforms presents new opportunities for pushing the boundaries of quantum circuit simulation. Here, we present a modernized version of the Tensor Network Quantum Virtual Machine (TNQVM) that serves as the quantum circuit simulation backend in the eXtreme-scale ACCelerator (XACC) framework. The new version is based on the scalable tensor network processing library ExaTN (Exascale Tensor Networks). It provides multiple configurable quantum circuit simulators that perform either an exact quantum circuit simulation via the full tensor network contraction or an approximate simulation via a suitably chosen tensor factorization scheme. Upon necessity, stochastic noise modeling from real quantum processors is incorporated into the simulations by modeling quantum channels with Kraus tensors. By combining the portable XACC quantum programming frontend and the scalable ExaTN numerical processing backend, we introduce an end-to-end virtual quantum development environment that can scale from laptops to future exascale platforms. We report initial benchmarks of our framework, which include a demonstration of the distributed execution, incorporation of quantum decoherence models, and simulation of the random quantum circuits used for the certification of quantum supremacy on Google’s Sycamore superconducting architecture.

Nguyen, Thien↗
DOE OSTI2016

WE-AB-207B-07: Dose Cloud: Generating “Big Data” for Radiation Therapy Treatment Plan Optimization Research

Purpose: To provide a tool to generate large sets of realistic virtual patient geometries and beamlet doses for treatment optimization research. This tool enables countless studies exploring the fundamental interplay between patient geometry, objective functions, weight selections, and achievable dose distributions for various algorithms and modalities. Methods: Generating realistic virtual patient geometries requires a small set of real patient data. We developed a normalized patient shape model (PSM) which captures organ and target contours in a correspondence-preserving manner. Using PSM-processed data, we perform principal component analysis (PCA) to extract major modes of variation from the population. These PCA modes can be shared without exposing patient information. The modes are re-combined with different weights to produce sets of realistic virtual patient contours. Because virtual patients lack imaging information, we developed a shape-based dose calculation (SBD) relying on the assumption that the region inside the body contour is water. SBD utilizes a 2D fluence-convolved scatter kernel, derived from Monte Carlo simulations, and can compute both full dose for a given set of fluence maps, or produce a dose matrix (dose per fluence pixel) for many modalities. Combining the shape model with SBD provides the data needed for treatment plan optimization research. Results: We used PSM to capture organ and target contours for 96 prostate cases, extracted the first 20 PCA modes, and generated 2048 virtual patient shapes by randomly sampling mode scores. Nearly half of the shapes were thrown out for failing anatomical checks, the remaining 1124 were used in computing dose matrices via SBD and a standard 7-beam protocol. As a proof of concept, and to generate data for later study, we performed fluence map optimization emphasizing PTV coverage. Conclusions: We successfully developed and tested a tool for creating customizable sets of virtual patients suitable for large-scale radiation therapy optimization research.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2013

Large-Scale Uncertainty and Error Analysis for Time-dependent Fluid/Structure Interactions in Wind Turbine Applications

The following is the final report covering the entire period of this aforementioned grant, June 1, 2011 - May 31, 2013 for the portion of the effort corresponding to Stanford University (SU). SU has partnered with Sandia National Laboratories (PI: Mike S. Eldred) and Purdue University (PI: Dongbin Xiu) to complete this research project and this final report includes those contributions made by the members of the team at Stanford. Dr. Eldred is continuing his contributions to this project under a no-cost extension and his contributions to the overall effort will be detailed at a later time (once his effort has concluded) on a separate project submitted by Sandia National Laboratories. At Stanford, the team is made up of Profs. Alonso, Iaccarino, and Duraisamy, post-doctoral researcher Vinod Lakshminarayan, and graduate student Santiago Padron. At Sandia National Laboratories, the team includes Michael Eldred, Matt Barone, John Jakeman, and Stefan Domino, and at Purdue University, we have Prof. Dongbin Xiu as our main collaborator. The overall objective of this project was to develop a novel, comprehensive methodology for uncertainty quantification by combining stochastic expansions (nonintrusive polynomial chaos and stochastic collocation), the adjoint approach, and fusion with experimental data to account for aleatory and epistemic uncertainties from random variable, random field, and model form sources. The expected outcomes of this activity were detailed in the proposal and are repeated here to set the stage for the results that we have generated during the time period of execution of this project: 1. The rigorous determination of an error budget comprising numerical errors in physical space and statistical errors in stochastic space and its use for optimal allocation of resources; 2. A considerable increase in efficiency when performing uncertainty quantification with a large number of uncertain variables in complex non-linear multi-physics problems; 3. A solution to the long-time integration problem of spectral chaos approaches; 4. A rigorous methodology to account for aleatory and epistemic uncertainties, to emphasize the most important variables via dimension reduction and dimension-adaptive refinement, and to support fusion with experimental data using Bayesian inference; 5. The application of novel methodologies to time-dependent reliability studies in wind turbine applications including a number of efforts relating to the uncertainty quantification in vertical-axis wind turbine applications. In this report, we summarize all accomplishments in the project (during the time period specified) focusing on advances in UQ algorithms and deployment efforts to the wind turbine application area. Detailed publications in each of these areas have also been completed and are available from the respective conference proceedings and journals as detailed in a later section.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗