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At least 1,297 records · Page 72

Investigation for improving Global Positioning System (GPS) orbits using a discrete sequential estimator and stochastic models of selected physical processes

GEODYNII is a conventional batch least-squares differential corrector computer program with deterministic models of the physical environment. Conventional algorithms were used to process differenced phase and pseudorange data to determine eight-day Global Positioning system (GPS) orbits with several meter accuracy. However, random physical processes drive the errors whose magnitudes prevent improving the GPS orbit accuracy. To improve the orbit accuracy, these random processes should be modeled stochastically. The conventional batch least-squares algorithm cannot accommodate stochastic models, only a stochastic estimation algorithm is suitable, such as a sequential filter/smoother. Also, GEODYNII cannot currently model the correlation among data values. Differenced pseudorange, and especially differenced phase, are precise data types that can be used to improve the GPS orbit precision. To overcome these limitations and improve the accuracy of GPS orbits computed using GEODYNII, we proposed to develop a sequential stochastic filter/smoother processor by using GEODYNII as a type of trajectory preprocessor. Our proposed processor is now completed. It contains a correlated double difference range processing capability, first order Gauss Markov models for the solar radiation pressure scale coefficient and y-bias acceleration, and a random walk model for the tropospheric refraction correction. The development approach was to interface the standard GEODYNII output files (measurement partials and variationals) with software modules containing the stochastic estimator, the stochastic models, and a double differenced phase range processing routine. Thus, no modifications to the original GEODYNII software were required. A schematic of the development is shown. The observational data are edited in the preprocessor and the data are passed to GEODYNII as one of its standard data types. A reference orbit is determined using GEODYNII as a batch least-squares processor and the GEODYNII measurement partial (FTN90) and variational (FTN80, V-matrix) files are generated. These two files along with a control statement file and a satellite identification and mass file are passed to the filter/smoother to estimate time-varying parameter states at each epoch, improved satellite initial elements, and improved estimates of constant parameters.

Goad, Clyde C.↗

Efficient Nighttime Biogenic SOA Formation in a Polluted Residual Layer

Abstract Organic nitrates formed from nighttime reaction between anthropogenic nitrate radicals (NO3) and biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) are potentially an important but highly uncertain source of secondary organic aerosol (SOA). Here we report on the enhanced nighttime biogenic SOA formation observed in a polluted residual layer over Sacramento, California, the morning of 15 June 2010 during the Carbonaceous Aerosols and Radiative Effects Study (CARES). Trajectory analysis showed that the residual layer air, containing trace amounts of isoprene and monoterpenes left over after nighttime oxidation, was influenced by the San Francisco Bay Area emissions the previous evening. The residual layer aerosol was also enriched in nitrate, with about 64% of it estimated to be in the form of organic nitrates. The nitrate:organic mass ratio of the SOA was about 0.47±0.044, which corresponds to the range typically found in isoprene mononitrates. Assuming the SOA was composed of organic mononitrates, its nominal molecular weight was estimated at 186±11 g mol-1, consistent with the highly functionalized isoprene hydroxynitrates that have been observed in the particle phase in the southeast United States. Overall, our findings show that the efficiency of nighttime biogenic SOA formation, expressed as the change in organic aerosol mass relative to carbon monoxide (?OA/?CO), was about 100 µg m-3 ppmv, which falls in the range 77-157 µg m-3 ppmv previously estimated for enhanced daytime SOA formation from mixed anthropogenic and biogenic emissions during CARES.

Zaveri, Rahul A.↗

Tug fleet and ground operations schedules and controls. Volume 1: Executive summary

This study presents Tug Fleet and Ground Operations Schedules and Controls plan. This plan was developed and optimized out of a combination of individual Tug program phased subplans, special emphasis studies, contingency analyses and sensitivity analyses. The subplans cover the Tug program phases: (1) Tug operational, (2) Interim Upper Stage (IUS)/Tug fleet utilization, (3) and IUS/Tug payload integration, (4) Tug site activation, (5) IUS/Tug transition, (6) Tug acquisition. Resource requirements (facility, GSE, TSE, software, manpower, logistics) are provided in each subplan, as are appropriate Tug processing flows, active and total IUS and Tug fleet requirements, fleet management and Tug payload integration concepts, facility selection recommendations, site activation and IUS to Tug transition requirements. The impact of operational concepts on Tug acquisition is assessed and the impact of operating Tugs out of KSC and WTR is analyzed and presented showing WTR as a delta. Finally, cost estimates for fleet management and ground operations of the DDT&E and operational phases of the Tug program are given.

Source record↗

Estimating Uncertainty in Simulated ENSO Statistics

Abstract Large ensembles of model simulations are frequently used to reduce the impact of internal variability when evaluating climate models and assessing climate change induced trends. However, the optimal number of ensemble members required to distinguish model biases and climate change signals from internal variability varies across models and metrics. Here we analyze the mean, variance and skewness of precipitation and sea surface temperature in the eastern equatorial Pacific region often used to describe the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), obtained from large ensembles of Coupled model intercomparison project phase 6 climate simulations. Leveraging established statistical theory, we develop and assess equations to estimate, a priori, the ensemble size or simulation length required to limit sampling‐based uncertainties in ENSO statistics to within a desired tolerance. Our results confirm that the uncertainty of these statistics decreases with the square root of the time series length and/or ensemble size. Moreover, we demonstrate that uncertainties of these statistics are generally comparable when computed using either pre‐industrial control or historical runs. This suggests that pre‐industrial runs can sometimes be used to estimate the expected uncertainty of statistics computed from an existing historical member or ensemble, and the number of simulation years (run duration and/or ensemble size) required to adequately characterize the statistic. This advance allows us to use existing simulations (e.g., control runs that are performed during model development) to design ensembles that can sufficiently limit diagnostic uncertainties arising from simulated internal variability. These results may well be applicable to variables and regions beyond ENSO.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Light-Robust Pole-from-Silhouette Algorithm and Visual-Hull Estimation for Autonomous Optical Navigation to an Unknown Small Body

We present an advanced Pole-from-Silhouette (PFS) algorithm, which is robust to illumination conditions and non-zero sun phase. PFS is an important step in the optical navigation pipeline for an autonomous small spacecraft to approach an unknown small body. The algo- rithm estimates the rotation pole and 3D shape (visual hull) of the small body using only the lit pixels within the silhouette of the small body, the body’s rotation rate, the spacecraft attitude, and the spacecraft-target relative distance, which is estimated from orbit determination. We present detailed numerical simulations and multiple sensitivity analyses to demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed PFS algorithm in different scenarios and target bodies.

Nesnas, Issa A.↗

Galileo spacecraft modal identification using an eigensystem realization algorithm

A modal parameter identification technique referred to as the Eigensystem Realization Algorithm (ERA) was applied to free-response measurements from the Galileo spacecraft modal survey test. The data were recorded following single-point random excitation of the structure. This work is one phase in a research project coordinated by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory to compare the performance of various contemporary identification techniques using Galileo data. Principal emphasis is placed on estimating the accuracy of the ERA-identified modal parameters. Various accuracy indicators, such as Modal Amplitude Coherence and Modal Phase Collinearity, are discussed. More than 20 modes of the spacecraft were identified, demonstrating the ability of the ERA method to determine the dynamics of such complex structures using only a few seconds of test data.

Pappa, R. S.↗

Subduction and volatile recycling in Earth's mantle

The subduction of water and other volatiles into the mantle from oceanic sediments and altered oceanic crust is the major source of volatile recycling in the mantle. Until now, the geotherms that have been used to estimate the amount of volatiles that are recycled at subduction zones have been produced using the hypothesis that the slab is rigid and undergoes no internal deformation. On the other hand, most fluid dynamical mantle flow calculations assume that the slab has no greater strength than the surrounding mantle. Both of these views are inconsistent with laboratory work on the deformation of mantle minerals at high pressures. We consider the effects of the strength of the slab using two-dimensional calculations of a slab-like thermal downwelling with an endothermic phase change. Because the rheology and composition of subducting slabs are uncertain, we consider a range of Clapeyron slopes which bound current laboratory estimates of the spinel to perovskite plus magnesiowustite phase transition and simple temperature-dependent rheologies based on an Arrhenius law diffusion mechanism. In uniform viscosity convection models, subducted material piles up above the phase change until the pile becomes gravitationally unstable and sinks into the lower mantle (the avalanche). Strong slabs moderate the 'catastrophic' effects of the instabilities seen in many constant-viscosity convection calculations; however, even in the strongest slabs we consider, there is some retardation of the slab descent due to the presence of the phase change.

King, S. D.↗

Oceanic transports of mass, heat, and salt in the western North Pacific

An optimum orbit of the satellite will be presented for confirmation of estimates of tides and interpolation errors. Hydrographic surveys complementary to the routine surveys will be planned in Phase 1 by using research vessels belonging to Japanese universities. Direction measurements of oceanic transports with moored current meters and shipborne acoustic Doppler velocimeters will be planned for selected sections as an activity of the Japan-WOCE (World Ocean Circulation Experiment) Project. In the operational phase of TOPEX/POSEIDON, the delivered altimeter data will be used for the computation of surface geostrophic velocities to be applied in the hydrographic sections of the Japan Meteorological Agency, Hydrographic Department, Japan Fisheries Agency, and the universities. The estimates of transports are made by the co-investigators of each agency. The composite of the transports in the circulations will be made at the Japan Oceanographic Data Center. The direct measurements of current velocity and transports will be made mainly by the principal investigator.

Taira, K.↗

Information content of spatially distributed ground-based measurements for hydrologic-parameter calibration in mixed rain-snow mountain headwaters

Parameters in hydrologic models used in mixed rain-snow regions are often uncertain to calibrate and overfitted on streamflow. To contribute addressing these challenges, we used an algorithm that assesses modeling performances through time (Dynamic Identifiability Analysis) to quantify the information content of spatially distributed ground-based measurements for identifying optimal parameter values in the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) model. Including spatially distributed ground-based measurements in Identifiability Analysis allowed us to unambiguously estimate more parameter values than only using streamflow (seven parameters instead of two out of a pool of thirty-three). Peaks in information gain were obtained when using dew-point temperature to identify precipitation phase-partitioning parameters. Multi-attribute identifiability analysis also yielded optimal parameter values that were temporally less variable than those estimated using streamflow alone. Overall, identifying parameter values using ground-based measurements improved the simulation of key drivers of the surface-water budget, such as air temperature and precipitation-phase partitioning. However, parameters simulating surface-to-subsurface mass fluxes like snow accumulation and melt or evapotranspiration were poorly identified by any attribute and so emerged as key sources of predictive uncertainty for this distributed-parameter hydrologic model. In conclusion, this work demonstrates the value of expanded ground-based measurements for identifying parameters in distributed-parameter hydrologic models and so diagnosing their conceptual uncertainty across the water budget.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Durability and Damage Tolerance of High Temperature Polymeric Composites

Modern durability and damage tolerance predictions for composite material systems rely on accurate estimates of the local stress and material states for each of the constituents, as well as the manner in which the constituents interact. In this work, an number of approaches to estimating the stress states and interactions are developed. First, an elasticity solution is presented for the problem of a penny-shaped crack in an N-phase composite material system opened by a prescribed normal pressure. The stress state around such a crack is then used to estimate the stress concentrations due to adjacent fiber fractures in composite materials. The resulting stress concentrations are then used to estimate the tensile strength of the composite. The predicted results are compared with experimental values. In addition, a cumulative damage model for fatigue is presented. Modifications to the model are made to include the effects of variable amplitude loading. These modifications are based upon the use of remaining strength as a damage metric and the definition of an equivalent generalized time. The model is initially validated using results from the literature. Also, experimental data from APC-2 laminates and IM7/K3B laminates are used in the model. The use of such data for notched laminates requires the use of an effective hole size, which is calculated based upon strain distribution measurements. Measured remaining strengths after fatigue loading are compared with the predicted values for specimens fatigued at room temperature and 350 F (177 C).

Case, Scott W.↗

Observations of interstellar chlorine and phosphorus

Copernicus observations of interstellar Cl I, Cl II, and P II UV lines toward 10 stars are reported. Column densities are estimated for each species, and upper limits are computed for HCl column densities. Derivation of the gas-phase abundances of chlorine and phosphorus indicates that the averages of both the chlorine and the phosphorus logarithmic abundances relative to hydrogen are between 5.0 and 5.1. It is suggested that interstellar chlorine may be depleted by about a factor of 3 relative to the solar abundance and that interstellar phosphorus is depleted by a factor of 2 to 3. The results are shown to support the prediction that chlorine is ionized in regions containing primarily atomic oxygen and is neutral in regions where there is a significant amount of molecular hydrogen. The photoionization rate of neutral chlorine toward 15 Mon is estimated, and it is concluded that most chlorine is contained within the gas phase.

Jura, M.↗

Gravitational waves from first-order cosmological phase transitions

A first-order cosmological phase transition that proceeds through the nucleation and collision of true-vacuum bubbles is a potent source of gravitational radiation. Possibilities for such include first-order inflation, grand-unified-theory-symmetry breaking, and electroweak-symmetry breaking. We have calculated gravity-wave production from the collision of two scalar-field vacuum bubbles, and, using an approximation based upon these results, from the collision of 20 to 30 vacuum bubbles. We present estimates of the relic background of gravitational waves produced by a first-order phase transition.

Kosowsky, Arthur↗

Extended Frequency Divider for Bus Frequency Estimation Considering Virtual Inertia from DFIGs

Accurate estimation of local bus frequency is important for effectively controlling both synchronous and nonsynchronous generators. As the power grid evolves to accommodate essential reliability services such as virtual inertia from nonsynchronous generators, conventional techniques to estimate frequency face challenges. This paper proposes a new frequency estimation method that can effectively include the inertia contributions from double-fed wind generators (DFIGs). This is achieved through the proposed extended frequency divider formula (FDF) to include the contributions of DFIGs via Thevenin equivalents. The proposed extended FDF does not suffer from numerical issues as compared to existing phasor angle derivative-based approaches. Moreover, the knowledge of the rotor speeds of the synchronous machine and DFIGs as well as of the network admittance matrix allows estimating the frequencies of all buses in the grid, thereby significantly improving system situational awareness with a limited number of measurements. Numerical results on the IEEE 39-bus power system with DFIGs show that the proposed method achieves more accurate bus frequency estimations than the original FDF formula and other approaches based on the numerical derivation of the bus voltage phase angles.

double-fed induction generator↗

Error Analysis System for Spacecraft Navigation Using the Global Positioning System (GPS)

The Flight Dynamics Division (FDD) at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) is currently developing improved space-navigation filtering algorithms to use the Global Positioning System (GPS) for autonomous real-time onboard orbit determination. In connection with a GPS technology demonstration on the Small Satellite Technology Initiative (SSTI)/Lewis spacecraft, FDD analysts and programmers have teamed with the GSFC Guidance, Navigation, and Control Branch to develop the GPS Enhanced Orbit Determination Experiment (GEODE) system. The GEODE system consists of a Kalman filter operating as a navigation tool for estimating the position, velocity, and additional states required to accurately navigate the orbiting Lewis spacecraft by using astrodynamic modeling and GPS measurements from the receiver. A parallel effort at the FDD is the development of a GPS Error Analysis System (GEAS) that will be used to analyze and improve navigation filtering algorithms during development phases and during in-flight calibration. For GEAS, the Kalman filter theory is extended to estimate the errors in position, velocity, and other error states of interest. The estimation of errors in physical variables at regular intervals will allow the time, cause, and effect of navigation system weaknesses to be identified. In addition, by modeling a sufficient set of navigation system errors, a system failure that causes an observed error anomaly can be traced and accounted for. The GEAS software is formulated using Object Oriented Design (OOD) techniques implemented in the C++ programming language on a Sun SPARC workstation. The Phase 1 of this effort is the development of a basic system to be used to evaluate navigation algorithms implemented in the GEODE system. This paper presents the GEAS mathematical methodology, systems and operations concepts, and software design and implementation. Results from the use of the basic system to evaluate navigation algorithms implemented on GEODE are also discussed. In addition, recommendations for generalization of GEAS functions and for new techniques to optimize the accuracy and control of the GPS autonomous onboard navigation are presented.

Truong, S. H.↗

Homodyning and heterodyning the quantum phase

The double-homodyne and the heterodyne detection schemes for phase shifts between two synchronous modes of the electromagnetic field are analyzed in the framework of quantum estimation theory. The probability operator-valued measures (POM's) of the detectors are evaluated and compared with the ideal one in the limit of strong local reference oscillator. The present operational approach leads to a reasonable definition of phase measurement, whose sensitivity is actually related to the output r.m.s. noise of the photodetector. We emphasize that the simple-homodyne scheme does not correspond to a proper phase-shift measurements as it is just a zero-point detector. The sensitivity of all detection schemes are optimized at fixed energy with respect to the input state of radiation. It is shown that the optimal sensitivity can be actually achieved using suited squeezed states.

Dariano, Giacomo M.↗

The effects of clutter-rejection filtering on estimating weather spectrum parameters

The effects of clutter-rejection filtering on estimating the weather parameters from pulse Doppler radar measurement data are investigated. The pulse pair method of estimating the spectrum mean and spectrum width of the weather is emphasized. The loss of sensitivity, a measure of the signal power lost due to filtering, is also considered. A flexible software tool developed to investigate these effects is described. It allows for simulated weather radar data, in which the user specifies an underlying truncated Gaussian spectrum, as well as for externally generated data which may be real or simulated. The filter may be implemented in either the time or the frequency domain. The software tool is validated by comparing unfiltered spectrum mean and width estimates to their true values, and by reproducing previously published results. The effects on the weather parameter estimates using simulated weather-only data are evaluated for five filters: an ideal filter, two infinite impulse response filters, and two finite impulse response filters. Results considering external data, consisting of weather and clutter data, are evaluated on a range cell by range cell basis. Finally, it is shown theoretically and by computer simulation that a linear phase response is not required for a clutter rejection filter preceeding pulse-pair parameter estimation.

Davis, W. T.↗

Automatic Seismic Phase Picking Using Deep Learning for the EGS Collab project

Microseismic monitoring plays an important role in many energy-related and environmental industries.The microseismic event catalog and seismic structure of the subsurface are two of the primary outputsof the microseismic monitoring system. Though rough locations of microseismic events can be estimated automatically, obtaining high-resolution microseismic event locations requires a significant amount of human laborespecially on seismic phase picking. Unlike traditional automatic pickers that are usually less precise than human analysts, a fewrecently proposed algorithms based on deepneural networks(DNN)were able to match or surpass human performance for earthquake signals. Due to differences in the spatial scale of the study area, sensor sampling rate, and geometry of the monitoring system, it is not clear whether these deepneural networkmodels can be used to speed up microseismic data processing. In this paper, we adapted the DNN based technique for automatic phase picking of microseismic signals. We usedmicroseismic data recorded at the experiment 1 site of the enhancedgeothermal system (EGS) Collab project anddesigneda workflowthat we call transfer-learning aided double-difference tomography (TADT),thatcombines transfer learning and seismic tomography. We re-train an existing DNN with our data to obtain a newmodel using around 3500 seismogramsand associated manual phase picks. Thistransfer learnedmodel is able to reach human performance but muchfaster than human analysts. The transfer-learning-derived phase pickswereused to improve microseismic event locations and imagethesubsurface. The results are similar to or slightly better than those obtained with manual phase picks.

Chai, Chengping↗