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NASA NTRS2007

Effect of Temperature on Jet Velocity Spectra

Statistical jet noise prediction codes that accurately predict spectral directivity for both cold and hot jets are highly sought both in industry and academia. Their formulation, whether based upon manipulations of the Navier-Stokes equations or upon heuristic arguments, require substantial experimental observation of jet turbulence statistics. Unfortunately, the statistics of most interest involve the space-time correlation of flow quantities, especially velocity. Until the last 10 years, all turbulence statistics were made with single-point probes, such as hotwires or laser Doppler anemometry. Particle image velocimetry (PIV) brought many new insights with its ability to measure velocity fields over large regions of jets simultaneously; however, it could not measure velocity at rates higher than a few fields per second, making it unsuitable for obtaining temporal spectra and correlations. The development of time-resolved PIV, herein called TR-PIV, has removed this limitation, enabling measurement of velocity fields at high resolution in both space and time. In this paper, ground-breaking results from the application of TR-PIV to single-flow hot jets are used to explore the impact of heat on turbulent statistics of interest to jet noise models. First, a brief summary of validation studies is reported, undertaken to show that the new technique produces the same trusted results as hotwire at cold, low-speed jets. Second, velocity spectra from cold and hot jets are compared to see the effect of heat on the spectra. It is seen that heated jets possess 10 percent more turbulence intensity compared to the unheated jets with the same velocity. The spectral shapes, when normalized using Strouhal scaling, are insensitive to temperature if the stream-wise location is normalized relative to the potential core length. Similarly, second order velocity correlations, of interest in modeling of jet noise sources, are also insensitive to temperature as well.

Bridges, James E.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Offset Stream Technology Test-Summary of Results

Brown, Clifford A.↗

NASA NTRS1990

A model study of the response of mesospheric ozone to short-term solar ultraviolet flux variations

An investigation is conducted in order to determine the relative importance of several modeled processes in controlling the magnitude and phase of the mesospheric ozone response. A detailed one-dimensional modeling study of the mesospheric ozone response to solar UV flux variations is conducted to remove some of the deficiencies in previous studies. This study is also used to examine specifically the importance of solar zenith angle, self-consistent calculation of water vapor abundance, and temperature feedback with a nonlocal thermodynamic equilibrium radiation model. The photochemical model is described, and the assumptions made for the purpose of comparing model results with the observed ozone response obtained from a statistical analysis of Solar Mesosphere Explorer data (Keating et al., 1987) are discussed. The numerical results for the theoretical ozone response are presented. The results of selected time-dependent calculations are considered to illustrate the degree to which a relatively simple model of the mesosphere is able to capture the major characteristics of the observed response.

Summers, M. E.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Comparison of Response Surface and Kriging Models in the Multidisciplinary Design of an Aerospike Nozzle

The use of response surface models and kriging models are compared for approximating non-random, deterministic computer analyses. After discussing the traditional response surface approach for constructing polynomial models for approximation, kriging is presented as an alternative statistical-based approximation method for the design and analysis of computer experiments. Both approximation methods are applied to the multidisciplinary design and analysis of an aerospike nozzle which consists of a computational fluid dynamics model and a finite element analysis model. Error analysis of the response surface and kriging models is performed along with a graphical comparison of the approximations. Four optimization problems are formulated and solved using both approximation models. While neither approximation technique consistently outperforms the other in this example, the kriging models using only a constant for the underlying global model and a Gaussian correlation function perform as well as the second order polynomial response surface models.

Simpson, Timothy W.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Optimal Sampling of a Reaction Coordinate in Molecular Dynamics

Estimating how free energy changes with the state of a system is a central goal in applications of statistical mechanics to problems of chemical or biological interest. From these free energy changes it is possible, for example, to establish which states of the system are stable, what are their probabilities and how the equilibria between these states are influenced by external conditions. Free energies are also of great utility in determining kinetics of transitions between different states. A variety of methods have been developed to compute free energies of condensed phase systems. Here, I will focus on one class of methods - those that allow for calculating free energy changes along one or several generalized coordinates in the system, often called reaction coordinates or order parameters . Considering that in almost all cases of practical interest a significant computational effort is required to determine free energy changes along such coordinates it is hardly surprising that efficiencies of different methods are of great concern. In most cases, the main difficulty is associated with its shape along the reaction coordinate. If the free energy changes markedly along this coordinate Boltzmann sampling of its different values becomes highly non-uniform. This, in turn, may have considerable, detrimental effect on the performance of many methods for calculating free energies.

Pohorille, Andrew↗

NASA NTRS1983

A case study of the energy dissipation of the gravity wave field based on satellite altimeter measurements

Wave breaking is proposed as the primary energy dissipation mechanism for the gravity wave field. The energy dissipation rate is calculated based on the statistical model proposed by Longuet-Higgins (1969) with a modification of the breaking criterion incorporating the surface stress according to Phillips and Banner (1974). From this modified model, an analytic expression is found for the wave attenuation rate and the half-life time of the wave field which depend only on the significant slope of the wave field and the ratio of friction velocity to initial wave phase velocity. These expressions explain why the freshly generated wave field does not last long, but why swells are capable of propagating long distances without substantial change in energy density. It is shown that breaking is many orders of magnitude more effective in dissipating wave energy than the molecular viscosity, if the significant slope is higher than 0.01. Limited observational data from satellite and laboratory are used to compare with the analytic results, and show good agreement.

Huang, N. E.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Assessing Air-Sea Interaction in the Evolving NASA GEOS Model

In order to understand how the climate responds to variations in forcing, one necessary component is to understand the full distribution of variability of exchanges of heat and moisture between the atmosphere and ocean. Surface heat and moisture fluxes are critical to the generation and decay of many coupled air-sea phenomena. These mechanisms operate across a number of scales and contain contributions from interactions between the anomalous (i.e. non-mean), often extreme-valued, flux components. Satellite-derived estimates of the surface turbulent and radiative heat fluxes provide an opportunity to assess results from modeling systems. Evaluation of only time mean and variability statistics, however only provides limited traceability to processes controlling what are often regime-dependent errors. This work will present an approach to evaluate the representation of the turbulent fluxes at the air-sea interface in the current and evolving Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model. A temperature and moisture vertical profile-based clustering technique is used to identify robust weather regimes, and subsequently intercompare the turbulent fluxes and near-surface parameters within these regimes in both satellite estimates and GEOS-driven data sets. Both model reanalysis (MERRA) and seasonal-to-interannual coupled GEOS model simulations will be evaluated. Particular emphasis is placed on understanding the distribution of the fluxes including extremes, and the representation of near-surface forcing variables directly related to their estimation. Results from these analyses will help identify the existence and source of regime-dependent biases in the GEOS model ocean surface turbulent fluxes. The use of the temperature and moisture profiles for weather-state clustering will be highlighted for its potential broad application to 3-D output typical of model simulations.

Clayson, Carol Anne↗

NASA NTRS2016

In-Space Manufacturing Baseline Property Development

The In-Space Manufacturing (ISM) project at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center currently operates a 3D FDM (fused deposition modeling) printer onboard the International Space Station. In order to enable utilization of this capability by designer, the project needs to establish characteristic material properties for materials produced using the process. This is difficult for additive manufacturing since standards and specifications do not yet exist for these technologies. Due to availability of crew time, there are limitations to the sample size which in turn limits the application of the traditional design allowables approaches to develop a materials property database for designers. In this study, various approaches to development of material databases were evaluated for use by designers of space systems who wish to leverage in-space manufacturing capabilities. This study focuses on alternative statistical techniques for baseline property development to support in-space manufacturing.

Stockman, Tom↗

NASA NTRS2020

The role of blocking circulation and emerging open water feedbacks on Greenland cold‐season air temperature variability over the last century

Substantial marine, terrestrial, and atmospheric changes have occurred over the Greenland region during the last century. Several studies have documented record‐levels of Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) summer melt extent during the 2000s and 2010s, but relatively little work has been carried out to assess regional climatic changes in other seasons. Here, we focus on the less studied cold‐season (i.e., autumn and winter) climate, tracing the long‐term (1873–2013) variability of Greenland's air temperatures through analyses of coastal observations and model‐derived outlet glacier series and their linkages with North Atlantic sea ice, sea surface temperature (SST), and atmospheric circulation indices. Through a statistical framework, large amounts of west and south Greenland temperature variance (up to r^2~50%) can be explained by the seasonally‐contemporaneous combination of the Greenland Blocking Index (GBI) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO; hereafter the combination of GBI and NAO is termed GBI). Lagged and concomitant regional sea‐ice concentration (SIC) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) seasonal indices account for small amounts of residual air temperature variance (r^2<~10%) relative to the GBI. The correlations between GBI and cold‐season temperatures are predominantly positive and statistically‐significant through time, while regional SIC conditions emerge as a significant covariate from the mid‐20th century through the conclusion of the study period. The inclusion of the cold‐season Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) in multivariate analyses bolsters the air temperature variance explained by the North Atlantic regional predictors, suggesting the remote, background climate state is important to long‐term Greenland temperature variability. These findings imply that large‐scale tropospheric circulation has a strong control on surface temperature over Greenland through dynamic and thermodynamic impacts and stress the importance of understanding the evolving two‐way linkages between the North Atlantic marine and atmospheric environment in order to more accurately predict Greenland seasonal climate variability and change through the 21st century.

air temperatures↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Analysis of Alternative Architectures for Cargo Lunar Landers

NASA’s Human Landing System (HLS) program has been working with commercial partners to develop human-class lunar landers to return the first American woman and next American man to the lunar surface in the mid 2020’s. In an effort to expand human presence beyond low Earth orbit, NASA’s Artemis program aims to facilitate a sustainable, long-term human presence in cis-lunar space. A component of this will require significant infrastructure to be delivered to the lunar surface. Delivering this infrastructure will require a significant lander capability that has yet to be developed. A thorough understanding of cargo lunar lander architectures is required such that select alternatives can be identified that best support the Artemis program’s objective of sustainability. The goal of this study is to aid NASA and its partners in the understanding of the cargo lunar lander trades space, as well as identify potential robust alternatives. The results will support NASA as it moves forward with key activities such as requirements formulation, agency strategic planning, and potential cargo lunar lander procurements. The study builds off of recent work performed by the Human Landing System program’s Architecture and Systems Analysis group to encompass a broad trade space of cargo lunar lander architecture alternatives. The current trade space as depicted by the morphological matrix and mission graph in Fig. 1 and Fig. 2, respectively, includes key alternative options that have become highly relevant due to current HLS activities and include on-orbit refueling, active cryogenic fluid management, Earth orbit aggregation, and global lunar access. The authors believe that there is also a statistically relevant impact of lander-payload configuration on the primary structure of the vehicle that could greatly impact alternative selection. Because of this, several conceptual lander-payload configurations will be evaluated to determine the level of impact. The current set of conceptual configurations are shown in Fig. 3 and Fig. 4. To aid the conceptual evaluation of these configurations, a catalogue of notional payloads has been developed that represent a wide range of masses and volumes that are expected to be delivered in support of a sustained human lunar presence, including pressurized and unpressurized rovers, surface habitats, power systems, and other support infrastructure. In order to execute this study in a timely fashion, a similar approach to that utilized in a similar 2019 study focused on 2024 human lunar sorties will be employed [1]. The team utilized a novel architecture synthesis framework currently being developed by NASA/MSFC to evaluate over 600,000 lunar lander architectures over a two month time frame [2]. From this large data set, varying ground rules and assumptions were applied as filters to explore the trade space to identify alternatives which exhibited robustness, as measured by launch vehicle payload margin, to absorb the natural growth that occurs during design maturation. The set of Earth-Moon system Delta-Vs assumed from the 2019 study, shown in Fig. 5, will be repurposed to accelerate model formulation for this effort. Additionally, current efforts in collaboration with the Georgia Institute of Technology’s Aerospace System Design Lab will be integrated to provide probabilistic modeling of the cargo lunar lander architectures to aid in identifying robust design alternatives [3]. The approach will help minimize potential impacts due to large levels of uncertainty inherent to pre phase-A conceptual design. By leveraging these past and present studies and partnerships, a highly detailed set of data can be generated in a short time period to aid NASA in the coming years to support the goal of a sustained human lunar presence.

Architectures↗

NASA NTRS2001

Uncertainty Optimization Applied to the Monte Carlo Analysis of Planetary Entry Trajectories

Recently, strong evidence of liquid water under the surface of Mars and a meteorite that might contain ancient microbes have renewed interest in Mars exploration. With this renewed interest, NASA plans to send spacecraft to Mars approx. every 26 months. These future spacecraft will return higher-resolution images, make precision landings, engage in longer-ranging surface maneuvers, and even return Martian soil and rock samples to Earth. Future robotic missions and any human missions to Mars will require precise entries to ensure safe landings near science objective and pre-employed assets. Potential sources of water and other interesting geographic features are often located near hazards, such as within craters or along canyon walls. In order for more accurate landings to be made, spacecraft entering the Martian atmosphere need to use lift to actively control the entry. This active guidance results in much smaller landing footprints. Planning for these missions will depend heavily on Monte Carlo analysis. Monte Carlo trajectory simulations have been used with a high degree of success in recent planetary exploration missions. These analyses ascertain the impact of off-nominal conditions during a flight and account for uncertainty. Uncertainties generally stem from limitations in manufacturing tolerances, measurement capabilities, analysis accuracies, and environmental unknowns. Thousands of off-nominal trajectories are simulated by randomly dispersing uncertainty variables and collecting statistics on forecast variables. The dependability of Monte Carlo forecasts, however, is limited by the accuracy and completeness of the assumed uncertainties. This is because Monte Carlo analysis is a forward driven problem; beginning with the input uncertainties and proceeding to the forecasts outputs. It lacks a mechanism to affect or alter the uncertainties based on the forecast results. If the results are unacceptable, the current practice is to use an iterative, trial-and-error approach to reconcile discrepancies. Therefore, an improvement to the Monte Carlo analysis is needed that will allow the problem to be worked in reverse. In this way, the largest allowable dispersions that achieve the required mission objectives can be determined quantitatively.

Olds, John↗

NASA NTRS2004

Effect of Clouds on Optical Imaging of the Space Shuttle During the Ascent Phase: A Statistical Analysis Based on a 3D Model

Clouds are highly effective in obscuring optical images of the Space Shuttle taken during its ascent by ground-based and airborne tracking cameras. Because the imagery is used for quick-look and post-flight engineering analysis, the Columbia Accident Investigation Board (CAIB) recommended the return-to-flight effort include an upgrade of the imaging system to enable it to obtain at least three useful views of the Shuttle from lift-off to at least solid rocket booster (SRB) separation (NASA 2003). The lifetimes of individual cloud elements capable of obscuring optical views of the Shuttle are typically 20 minutes or less. Therefore, accurately observing and forecasting cloud obscuration over an extended network of cameras poses an unprecedented challenge for the current state of observational and modeling techniques. In addition, even the best numerical simulations based on real observations will never reach "truth." In order to quantify the risk that clouds would obscure optical imagery of the Shuttle, a 3D model to calculate probabilistic risk was developed. The model was used to estimate the ability of a network of optical imaging cameras to obtain at least N simultaneous views of the Shuttle from lift-off to SRB separation in the presence of an idealized, randomized cloud field.

FROM↗

NASA NTRS1985

Investigations of the Mars Cratered Terrain: Smooth Plains Boundary in the Eastern Equatorial Region

As part of an ongoing study to place geologic constraints on, and to interpret the origin of the ancient cratered terrain - smooth plains boundary on Mars, structural features in the eastern hemisphere were mapped, looking at wide-scale variations in aereal percentage of crater vocer and distinctive landforms. Maps and a digitized data set for graben, scarps, ridges and elongate plateaus in the eastern hemisphere were completed for 30 deg N to 30 deg. In the equatorial region, results indicate a marked change from the N oriented ridges north of the boundary to the NW orientations of those in the inter and intracrater plains south of the boundary. The WNW orientation of the boundary itself is matched by similar orientations of graben and scraps in the southern terrain. In order to determine whether outlying plateaus and isolated knobby hills found north of the boundary are formed from material of the ancient cratered terrain, the Viking 2 approach color data were used to discriminate surface materials in the eastern hemisphere. In the southern half of the Amenthes quadrange (MC-14), several correlations exist among surficial spectral reflectance and observed geologic units. Old terrain on the eastern rim of the Isidis basin is much redder than the smooth volcanic plains on either side of the rim, even though the plains unit east of the rim is located several kilometers higher than the plains on the floor of Isidis. Based on statistics derived from the color data, the plains within Isidis were found to differ from those north of the boundary zone.

Maxwell, T. A.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Knowledge-based machine indexing from natural language text: Knowledge base design, development, and maintenance

One strategy for machine-aided indexing (MAI) is to provide a concept-level analysis of the textual elements of documents or document abstracts. In such systems, natural-language phrases are analyzed in order to identify and classify concepts related to a particular subject domain. The overall performance of these MAI systems is largely dependent on the quality and comprehensiveness of their knowledge bases. These knowledge bases function to (1) define the relations between a controlled indexing vocabulary and natural language expressions; (2) provide a simple mechanism for disambiguation and the determination of relevancy; and (3) allow the extension of concept-hierarchical structure to all elements of the knowledge file. After a brief description of the NASA Machine-Aided Indexing system, concerns related to the development and maintenance of MAI knowledge bases are discussed. Particular emphasis is given to statistically-based text analysis tools designed to aid the knowledge base developer. One such tool, the Knowledge Base Building (KBB) program, presents the domain expert with a well-filtered list of synonyms and conceptually-related phrases for each thesaurus concept. Another tool, the Knowledge Base Maintenance (KBM) program, functions to identify areas of the knowledge base affected by changes in the conceptual domain (for example, the addition of a new thesaurus term). An alternate use of the KBM as an aid in thesaurus construction is also discussed.

Genuardi, Michael T.↗

NASA NTRS1996

Conceptual Design Oriented Wing Structural Analysis and Optimization

Airplane optimization has always been the goal of airplane designers. In the conceptual design phase, a designer's goal could be tradeoffs between maximum structural integrity, minimum aerodynamic drag, or maximum stability and control, many times achieved separately. Bringing all of these factors into an iterative preliminary design procedure was time consuming, tedious, and not always accurate. For example, the final weight estimate would often be based upon statistical data from past airplanes. The new design would be classified based on gross characteristics, such as number of engines, wingspan, etc., to see which airplanes of the past most closely resembled the new design. This procedure works well for conventional airplane designs, but not very well for new innovative designs. With the computing power of today, new methods are emerging for the conceptual design phase of airplanes. Using finite element methods, computational fluid dynamics, and other computer techniques, designers can make very accurate disciplinary-analyses of an airplane design. These tools are computationally intensive, and when used repeatedly, they consume a great deal of computing time. In order to reduce the time required to analyze a design and still bring together all of the disciplines (such as structures, aerodynamics, and controls) into the analysis, simplified design computer analyses are linked together into one computer program. These design codes are very efficient for conceptual design. The work in this thesis is focused on a finite element based conceptual design oriented structural synthesis capability (CDOSS) tailored to be linked into ACSYNT.

Lau, May Yuen↗

NASA NTRS2009

Statistical inference of static analysis rules

Various apparatus and methods are disclosed for identifying errors in program code. Respective numbers of observances of at least one correctness rule by different code instances that relate to the at least one correctness rule are counted in the program code. Each code instance has an associated counted number of observances of the correctness rule by the code instance. Also counted are respective numbers of violations of the correctness rule by different code instances that relate to the correctness rule. Each code instance has an associated counted number of violations of the correctness rule by the code instance. A respective likelihood of the validity is determined for each code instance as a function of the counted number of observances and counted number of violations. The likelihood of validity indicates a relative likelihood that a related code instance is required to observe the correctness rule. The violations may be output in order of the likelihood of validity of a violated correctness rule.

Engler, Dawson Richards↗

NASA NTRS1974

SAS-2 observations of the galactic gamma radiation from the Vela region

Data from a scan of the galactic plane by the SAS-2 high energy gamma ray experiment in the region 250 deg l2 290 deg show a statistically-significant excess over the general radiation from the galactic plane for gamma radiation of energy 100 MeV in the region 260 deg l2 270 deg and -7.5 deg b2 0 deg. If the enhanced gamma radiation results from interactions of cosmic rays with galactic matter, as the energy spectrum suggests, it seems reasonable to associate the enhancement with large scale galactic features, such as spiral arm segments in that direction, or with the region surrounding the Vela supernova remnant, with which PSR 0833-45 is associated. If the excess is attributed to cosmic rays released from this supernova interacting with the interstellar matter in that region, then on the order of 3.10 to the 50th power ergs would be released by that supernova in the form of cosmic rays.

Thompson, D. J.↗

NASA NTRS1982

A reinvestigation of the rate of the C/+/ + H2 radiative association reaction

It is noted that new experimental results and statistical theories have prompted a reinvestigation of the rate coefficient of the interstellar reaction in which C(+) + H2 yields CH2(+) + h(nu) in the 10-100 K temperature range. The results presented here indicate a rate coefficient between 10 to the -16 and 10 to the -15 cu cm/s at all temperatures studied. In applying the modified thermal and phase space theories, it is expected that they will be as accurate as for radiative association as for three-body association, provided the ab initio value for the radiative decay rate is correct. It is expected that the calculated values of the rate coefficient will be accurate to within an order of magnitude and will have the correct temperature dependence.

Herbst, E.↗