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At least 1,297 records · Page 72

Data-driven causal model discovery and personalized prediction in Alzheimer's disease

Abstract With the explosive growth of biomarker data in Alzheimer’s disease (AD) clinical trials, numerous mathematical models have been developed to characterize disease-relevant biomarker trajectories over time. While some of these models are purely empiric, others are causal, built upon various hypotheses of AD pathophysiology, a complex and incompletely understood area of research. One of the most challenging problems in computational causal modeling is using a purely data-driven approach to derive the model’s parameters and the mathematical model itself, without any prior hypothesis bias. In this paper, we develop an innovative data-driven modeling approach to build and parameterize a causal model to characterize the trajectories of AD biomarkers. This approach integrates causal model learning, population parameterization, parameter sensitivity analysis, and personalized prediction. By applying this integrated approach to a large multicenter database of AD biomarkers, the Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative, several causal models for different AD stages are revealed. In addition, personalized models for each subject are calibrated and provide accurate predictions of future cognitive status.

Zheng, Haoyang (ORCID:0000000168358242)↗

Revealing the dynamics of ultrarelativistic non-equilibrium many-electron systems with phase space tomography

The description of physical processes with many-particle systems is a key approach to the modeling of numerous physical systems. For example in storage rings, where ultrarelativistic particles are agglomerated in dense bunches, the modeling and measurement of their phase-space distribution is of paramount importance: at any time the phase-space distribution not only determines the complete space-time evolution but also provides fundamental performance characteristics for storage ring operation. Here, we demonstrate a non-destructive tomographic imaging technique for the 2D longitudinal phase-space distribution of ultrarelativistic electron bunches. For this purpose, we utilize a unique setup, which streams turn-by-turn near-field measurements of bunch profiles at MHz repetition rates. To demonstrate the feasibility of our method, we induce a non-equilibrium state and show that the phase-space distribution microstructuring as well as the phase-space distribution dynamics can be observed in great detail. Our approach offers a pathway to control ultrashort bunches and supports, as one example, the development of compact accelerators with low energy footprints.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Deep Learning Approaches to Surrogates for Solving the Diffusion Equation for Mechanistic Real-World Simulations

In many mechanistic medical, biological, physical, and engineered spatiotemporal dynamic models the numerical solution of partial differential equations (PDEs), especially for diffusion, fluid flow and mechanical relaxation, can make simulations impractically slow. Biological models of tissues and organs often require the simultaneous calculation of the spatial variation of concentration of dozens of diffusing chemical species. One clinical example where rapid calculation of a diffusing field is of use is the estimation of oxygen gradients in the retina, based on imaging of the retinal vasculature, to guide surgical interventions in diabetic retinopathy. Furthermore, the ability to predict blood perfusion and oxygenation may one day guide clinical interventions in diverse settings, i.e., from stent placement in treating heart disease to BOLD fMRI interpretation in evaluating cognitive function (Xie et al., 2019; Lee et al., 2020). Since the quasi-steady-state solutions required for fast-diffusing chemical species like oxygen are particularly computationally costly, we consider the use of a neural network to provide an approximate solution to the steady-state diffusion equation. Machine learning surrogates, neural networks trained to provide approximate solutions to such complicated numerical problems, can often provide speed-ups of several orders of magnitude compared to direct calculation. Surrogates of PDEs could enable use of larger and more detailed models than are possible with direct calculation and can make including such simulations in real-time or near-real time workflows practical. Creating a surrogate requires running the direct calculation tens of thousands of times to generate training data and then training the neural network, both of which are computationally expensive. Often the practical applications of such models require thousands to millions of replica simulations, for example for parameter identification and uncertainty quantification, each of which gains speed from surrogate use and rapidly recovers the up-front costs of surrogate generation. We use a Convolutional Neural Network to approximate the stationary solution to the diffusion equation in the case of two equal-diameter, circular, constant-value sources located at random positions in a two-dimensional square domain with absorbing boundary conditions. Such a configuration caricatures the chemical concentration field of a fast-diffusing species like oxygen in a tissue with two parallel blood vessels in a cross section perpendicular to the two blood vessels. To improve convergence during training, we apply a training approach that uses roll-back to reject stochastic changes to the network that increase the loss function. The trained neural network approximation is about 1000 times faster than the direct calculation for individual replicas. Because different applications will have different criteria for acceptable approximation accuracy, we discuss a variety of loss functions and accuracy estimators that can help select the best network for a particular application. We briefly discuss some of the issues we encountered with overfitting, mismapping of the field values and the geometrical conditions that lead to large absolute and relative errors in the approximate solution.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Tracing the Mott-Hubbard transition in one-dimensional Hubbard models without Umklapp scattering

Here we apply the density-matrix renormalization group (DMRG) method to a one-dimensional Hubbard model that lacks Umklapp scattering and thus provides an ideal case to study the Mott-Hubbard transition analytically and numerically. The model has a linear dispersion and displays a metal-to-insulator transition when the Hubbard interaction U equals the bandwidth U c = W, where the single-particle gap opens linearly, Δ(U ≥ W) = U - W. The simple nature of the elementary excitations permits us to determine numerically with high accuracy the critical interaction strength and the gap function in the thermodynamic limit. The jump discontinuity of the momentum distribution $n_k$ at the Fermi wave number $k_F$ = 0 cannot be used to locate accurately U c from finite-size systems. However, the slope of $n_k$ at the band edges $k_B$ = ±π, reveals the formation of a single-particle bound state which can be used to determine U c reliably from $n_k$ using accurate finite-size data.

1-dimensional systems↗

Reformulating a Gurson-based dynamic damage model and demonstrating improved predictive power and numerical robustness

The original Tepla (TEnsile PLAsticity) ductile damage model, based on the Gurson yield surface, has long been used to model damage evolution and material failure under dynamic loading. Unfortunately, Tepla suffered from mesh sensitivity, numerical instability, and limited predictive capability. Here, we theoretically reformulate Tepla to address these issues. We especially focus on the prediction of porosity, which is the key state variable used for modeling ductile damage, as compared to more easily measured surface velocities, which are at best an indirect measure of damage. Key model changes include separating the viscosity during volumetric void growth from underlying shear strength behavior and switching to an iterative bisection solver. The new Tepla is then calibrated on incipient spall experiments on half-hard copper and tantalum, which demonstrate its ability to simultaneously fit the model to recovered porosity distributions and measured surface velocities, a stringent test. Improved numerical behavior, such as greatly reduced mesh sensitivity, is also shown in those simulations. Finally, the new Tepla model is applied to several high-explosive loaded, sweeping wave experiments, showing the ability of the model to predict behavior on tests with significantly different loading conditions and histories than the calibration data.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Numerical simulations of membrane distillation systems with actively heated membranes

Membrane distillation (MD) is a thermal desalination process that is gaining attention for treating hypersaline brines. One recent approach uses composite membranes with a thermally conductive layer that delivers heat to the membrane–feed interface, where it drives evaporation. Though this increases single-pass recovery, it comes with the challenge of promoting lateral heat conduction through the thin membrane. Herein, we develop a 3D, computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model that simulates conjugate heat, mass, and momentum transport in the feed channel and composite membrane. We then use the CFD to verify a simpler numerical model that approximates the feed velocity field analytically. We validate the numerical model experimentally, and use it to investigate the impacts of the conductive layer thickness, feed channel geometry, and operating conditions on temperature and concentration polarization, permeate production, and specific energy consumption. Overall, we find that lateral heating increases permeate production at the expense of increased concentration polarization. In extreme cases, the concentration increases more than four-fold along the membrane surface. Furthermore, we show however, that the feed flow rate and conductive layer thickness can be tailored to mitigate concentration polarization, for only a small reduction in permeate production.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Modeling framework for evaluating the impacts of hydrodynamic pressure on hydrologic exchange fluxes and residence time for a large-scale river section over a long-term period

Quantifying hydrologic exchange fluxes (HEF) at the river and subsurface interface and their residence times (RT) in subsurface are important for managing the water quality and ecosystem health in dynamic river corridor systems. In this study, a modeling framework is developed for coupling the three-dimensional (3D) multi-phase surface, subsurface flow transport, and numerical tracer model for RT in a large-scale river section over a long period. The framework is utilized to evaluate the impacts of hydrodynamic pressure on HEFs and RT for a 30 km section of the Columbia River in Washington State over a three-year period. Based on comparisons between model simulations with and without considering hydrodynamic pressure, we found that hydrodynamic pressure increases the net HEFs by 7% with river gaining water from the subsurface domain, and leads to slight reduction of RT.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Opportunities and Challenges of Computational Electromagnetics Methods for Superconducting Circuit Quantum Device Modeling: A Practical Review

High-fidelity numerical methods that model the physical layout of a device are essential for the design of many technologies. For methods that characterize electromagnetic effects, these numerical methods are referred to as computational electromagnetics (CEM) methods. Although the CEM research field is mature, emerging applications can still stress the capabilities of the techniques in use today. The design of superconducting circuit quantum devices falls in this category due to the unconventional material properties and important features of the devices covering nanometer to centimeter scales. Such multiscale devices can stress the fundamental properties of CEM tools which can lead to an increase in simulation times, a loss in accuracy, or even cause no solution to be reliably found. While these challenges are being investigated by CEM researchers, knowledge about them is limited in the broader community of users of these CEM tools. This review is meant to serve as a practical introduction to the fundamental aspects of the major CEM techniques that a researcher may need to choose between to model a device, as well as provide insight into what steps they may take to alleviate some of their challenges. Our focus is on highlighting the main concepts without rigorously deriving all the details, which can be found in many textbooks and articles. After covering the fundamentals, we discuss more advanced topics related to the challenges of modeling multiscale devices with specific examples from superconducting circuit quantum devices. We conclude with a discussion on future research directions that will be valuable for improving the ability to successfully design increasingly more sophisticated superconducting circuit quantum devices. Although our focus and examples are taken from this area, researchers from other fields will still benefit from the details discussed here.

Elkin, Samuel T. [Virginia Tech., Blacksburg]↗

A multiscale phase field fracture approach based on the non-affine microsphere model for rubber-like materials

Rubber-like materials have a broad scope of applications due to their unique properties like high stretchability and increased toughness. Hence, computational models for simulating their fracture behavior are paramount for designing them against failures. In this study, the phase field fracture approach is integrated with a multiscale polymer model for predicting the fracture behavior in elastomers. At the microscale, damaged polymer chains are modeled to be made up of a number of elastic chain segments pinned together. Using the phase field approach, the damage in the chains is represented using a continuous variable. Both the bond stretch internal energy and the entropic free energy of the chain are assumed to drive the damage, and the advantages of this assumption are expounded. A framework for utilizing the non-affine microsphere model for damaged systems is proposed here by considering the minimization of a hypothetical undamaged free energy, ultimately connecting the chain stretch to the macroscale deformation gradient. At the macroscale, a thermodynamically consistent formulation is derived in which the total dissipation is assumed to be mainly due to the rupture of molecular bonds. Using a monolithic scheme, the proposed model is numerically implemented and the resulting three-dimensional simulation predictions are compared with existing experimental data. The capability of the model to qualitatively predict the propagation of complex crack paths and quantitatively estimate the overall fracture behavior is verified. Additionally, the effect of the length scale parameter on the predicted fracture behavior is studied for an inhomogeneous system.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

An experimentally validated mesoscale model for the effective thermal conductivity of U-Zr fuels

An experimentally validated mesoscale model was developed to simulate the effective thermal conductivity (ETC) of metallic U and U–Zr nuclear fuels. The effects of microstructure, temperature, composition, and interfacial thermal resistance (ITR) were investigated. Companion experiments were conducted to validate the model. The numerical simulations clearly demonstrate that accounting for the interface (Kapitza) thermal resistance and Zr precipitation is necessary to improve the model predictions. The dependence of the effective Kapitza resistance of depleted-U and U-10Zr on temperature was determined. Finally, for both materials, the largest difference between the model calculations and the experimental data was about 4.5%, which is within the precision of the experimental measurements.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Self-Supervised and Interpretable Anomaly Detection Using Network Transformers

Machine learning and deep neural networks (DNNs) have been proposed as a tool to identify anomalies in computer network communications. However, due the obfuscated nature of off-the-shelf machine learning models, their output often does not provide enough information to isolate the source of the anomaly to take corrective measures. In this article, we introduce the network transformer (NeT), a DNN model for anomaly detection that incorporates the graph structure of the communication network in order to improve interpretability. Further, the presented approach has the following advantages: first, enhanced interpretability by incorporating the graph structure of computer networks; second, provides a hierarchical set of features that enables analysis at different levels of granularity; second, self-supervised training that does not require labeled data. The NeT model was evaluated on a set of anomalous scenarios executed in a real industrial control system. The presented approach successfully identified the anomalies, the devices affected, and the specific connections causing the anomalies, providing a data-driven hierarchical approach to analyze the behavior of a cyber network.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Towards accelerating particle-resolved direct numerical simulation with neural operators

In this paper, we present our ongoing work aimed at accelerating a particle-resolved direct numerical simulation model designed to study aerosol–cloud–turbulence interactions. The dynamical model consists of two main components—a set of fluid dynamics equations for air velocity, temperature, and humidity, coupled with a set of equations for particle (i.e., cloud droplet) tracing. Rather than attempting to replace the original numerical solution method in its entirety with a machine learning (ML) method, we consider developing a hybrid approach. We exploit the potential of neural operator learning to yield fast and accurate surrogate models and, in this study, develop such surrogates for the velocity and vorticity fields. We discuss results from numerical experiments designed to assess the performance of ML architectures under consideration as well as their suitability for capturing the behavior of relevant dynamical systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Microscale mechanical modeling of deformable geomaterials with dynamic contacts based on the numerical manifold method

Abstract Micromechanical modeling of geomaterials is challenging because of the complex geometry of discontinuities and potentially large number of deformable material bodies that contact each other dynamically. In this study, we have developed a numerical approach for micromechanical analysis of deformable geomaterials with dynamic contacts. In our approach, we detect contacts among multiple blocks with arbitrary shapes, enforce different contact constraints for three different contact states of separated, bonded, and sliding, and iterate within each time step to ensure convergence of contact states. With these features, we are able to simulate the dynamic contact evolution at the microscale for realistic geomaterials having arbitrary shapes of grains and interfaces. We demonstrate the capability with several examples, including a rough fracture with different geometric surface asperity characteristics, settling of clay aggregates, compaction of a loosely packed sand, and failure of an intact marble sample. With our model, we are able to accurately analyze (1) large displacements and/or deformation, (2) the process of high stress accumulated at contact areas, (3) the failure of a mineral cemented rock samples under high stress, and (4) post-failure fragmentation. The analysis highlights the importance of accurately capturing (1) the sequential evolution of geomaterials responding to stress as motion, deformation, and high stress; (2) large geometric features outside the norms (such as large asperities and sharp corners) as such features can dominate the micromechanical behavior; and (3) different mechanical behavior between loosely packed and tightly packed granular systems.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Utah FORGE 5-2565: Hydrothermal Evolution of Fracture Properties - Workshop Presentation

This is a presentation on the Evolution of Permeability and Strength Recovery of Shear Fractures Under Hydrothermal Conditions project by the U.S. Geological Survey, presented by Dr. David Lockner. The project's objective was to determine how thermal, hydraulic, mechanical, and chemical processes affect the sustainability of fracture networks in geothermal reservoirs and provide strategies for improved EGS techniques that maximize thermal coupling and increase reservoir longevity. This presentation was featured in the Utah FORGE R&D Annual Workshop on September 8, 2023. The workshop provided a valuable opportunity to explore the progress made in each of the 17 Research and Development projects funded under Solicitation 2020-1 which aim to enhance our understanding of the crucial factors influencing the development of Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) reservoirs and resources.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Overview of the MOSAiC expedition: Snow and sea ice

Year-round observations of the physical snow and ice properties and processes that govern the ice pack evolution and its interaction with the atmosphere and the ocean were conducted during the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition of the research vessel Polarstern in the Arctic Ocean from October 2019 to September 2020. This work was embedded into the interdisciplinary design of the 5 MOSAiC teams, studying the atmosphere, the sea ice, the ocean, the ecosystem, and biogeochemical processes. The overall aim of the snow and sea ice observations during MOSAiC was to characterize the physical properties of the snow and ice cover comprehensively in the central Arctic over an entire annual cycle. This objective was achieved by detailed observations of physical properties and of energy and mass balance of snow and ice. By studying snow and sea ice dynamics over nested spatial scales from centimeters to tens of kilometers, the variability across scales can be considered. On-ice observations of in situ and remote sensing properties of the different surface types over all seasons will help to improve numerical process and climate models and to establish and validate novel satellite remote sensing methods; the linkages to accompanying airborne measurements, satellite observations, and results of numerical models are discussed. We found large spatial variabilities of snow metamorphism and thermal regimes impacting sea ice growth. We conclude that the highly variable snow cover needs to be considered in more detail (in observations, remote sensing, and models) to better understand snow-related feedback processes. The ice pack revealed rapid transformations and motions along the drift in all seasons. The number of coupled ice–ocean interface processes observed in detail are expected to guide upcoming research with respect to the changing Arctic sea ice.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Validation of Reactive Flow Capabilities in PAGOSA

Several reactive flow modeling capabilities are studied and applied to physics problems of interest in the PAGOSA hydrocode with an emphasis on validation. The Davis equation of state and the Arrhenius shock temperature dependent WSD (AWSD) reactive flow model have been implemented by the author in PAGOSA over the last year. These high-explosive modeling options along with the previously existing HE-JWL equation of state and the SURF/SURFplus reactive flow models are discussed, exercised and compared. Validation of the models analyze numerical results against experimental data from cylinder tests, two-stage gas gun experiments and proton radiography (pRad) experiments. Applications of the modeling options are explored involving both HMX based PBX 9501 and TATB based PBX 9502. The effect of mesh size is considered for prediction of phenomena such as corner turning and dead zones, and the relative code performance of the modeling options is discussed.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗