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At least 1,297 records · Page 72

Taxi-Out Time Prediction for Departures at Charlotte Airport Using Machine Learning Techniques

Predicting the taxi-out times of departures accurately is important for improving airport efficiency and takeoff time predictability. In this paper, we attempt to apply machine learning techniques to actual traffic data at Charlotte Douglas International Airport for taxi-out time prediction. To find the key factors affecting aircraft taxi times, surface surveillance data is first analyzed. From this data analysis, several variables, including terminal concourse, spot, runway, departure fix and weight class, are selected for taxi time prediction. Then, various machine learning methods such as linear regression, support vector machines, k-nearest neighbors, random forest, and neural networks model are applied to actual flight data. Different traffic flow and weather conditions at Charlotte airport are also taken into account for more accurate prediction. The taxi-out time prediction results show that linear regression and random forest techniques can provide the most accurate prediction in terms of root-mean-square errors. We also discuss the operational complexity and uncertainties that make it difficult to predict the taxi times accurately.

Safe and efficient surface operations↗

Operation Optimization Using Reinforcement Learning with Integrated Artificial Reasoning Framework

In large and complex systems, operational decision-making requires a systematic analysis with a vast amount of data from both process parameters and component status monitoring. In this paper, we present an integrated artificial reasoning approach for system state transition models that can help operational decision-making with explainable and traceable reasoning. The integrated artificial reasoning framework is a physics-based approach of defining the system structure in a Bayesian network, so we leveraged it in a Markov decision process (MDP) for finding optimal operational solutions. In our proposed framework, the MDP is implemented on a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN), which represents causalities in a system. The multilevel flow modeling was utilized in order to extract these causalities in a more efficient and objective manner. Since multilevel flow modeling is based on the fundamental energy and mass conservation laws, the target system is decomposed into several mass, energy, and information structures, which serve as the basis for a DBN. The MDP consists of the processes of finding a solution for the Bellman equation, which can be derived from the conditional probability equations of the constructed DBN. System operators can capture stochastic system dynamics as multiple subsystem state transitions based on their physical relations and uncertainties coming from the component degradation process or random failures. We analyzed a simplified example system to illustrate finding an optimal operational policy with this approach.

Kim, Junyung↗

Gas Reliability Analysis Integrated Library (GRAIL)

The Gas Reliability Analysis Integrated Library (GRAIL) is a prototype computational tool for solving a class of intra-day model-predictive control problems for a simplified network model of midstream natural gas pipeline systems. The model accurately resolves dynamic gas flows through long pipes using a non-ideal gas equation of state. It can be used to provide optimal intra-day flow schedules as well as spatiotemporal economic values of natural gas while ensuring that pipeline hydraulic limitations, compressor station constraints, operational factors, and pre-existing shipping contracts are satisfied. The inputs to the code are a model of the pipeline system as well as time-series data that specify boundary conditions on the network and time-dependent constraints on the optimal control problem. The outputs are time-series data that provide an approximately optimal solution of flows, pressures, compressor settings, and sensitivities to the objective function.

Zlotnik, Anatoly↗

URBAN-NET: A Network-based Infrastructure Monitoring and Analysis System for Emergency Management and Public Safety

Abstract Critical Infrastructures (CIs) such as energy, water, and transportation are complex networks that are crucial for sustaining day-to-day commodity flows vital to national security, economic stability, and public safety. The nature of these CIs is such that failures caused by an extreme weather event or a man-made incident can trigger widespread cascading failures, sending ripple effects at regional or even national scales. To minimize such effects, it is critical for emergency responders to identify existing or potential vulnerabilities within CIs during such stressor events in a systematic and quantifiable manner and take appropriate mitigating actions. We present here a novel critical infrastructure monitoring and analysis system named URBAN-NET. The system includes a software stack and tools for monitoring CIs, pre-processing data, interconnecting multiple CI datasets as a heterogeneous network, identifying vulnerabilities through graph-based topological analysis, and predicting consequences based on what-if simulations along with visualization. As a proof-of-concept, we present several case studies to show the capabilities of our system. We also discuss remaining challenges and future work.

Lee, Sangkeun↗

Dynamic equation-based thermo-hydraulic pipe model for district heating and cooling systems

Simulation and optimisation of district heating and cooling networks requires efficient and realistic models of the individual network elements in order to correctly represent heat losses or gains, temperature propagation and pressure drops. Due to more recent thermal networks incorporating meshing decentralised heat and cold sources, the system often has to deal with variable temperatures and mass flow rates, with flow reversal occurring more frequently. This paper presents the mathematical derivation and software implementation in Modelica of a thermo-hydraulic model for thermal networks that meets the above requirements and compares it to both experimental data and a commonly used model. Good correspondence between experimental data from a controlled test set-up and simulations using the presented model was found. Compared to measurement data from a real district heating network, the simulation results led to a larger error than in the controlled test set-up, but the general trend is still approximated closely and the model yields results similar to a pipe model from the Modelica Standard Library. However, the presented model simulates 1.7 (for low number of volumes) to 68 (for highly discretized pipes) times faster than a conventional model for a realistic test case. A working implementation of the presented model is made openly available within the IBPSA Modelica Library. The model is robust in the sense that grid size and time step do not need to be adapted to the flow rate, as is the case in finite volume models.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

802.16e System Profile for NASA Extra-Vehicular Activities

This report identifies an 802.16e system profile that is applicable to a lunar surface wireless network, and specifically for meeting extra-vehicular activity (EVA) data flow requirements. EVA suit communication needs are addressed. Design-driving operational scenarios are considered. These scenarios are then used to identify a configuration of the 802.16e system (system profile) that meets EVA requirements, but also aim to make the radio realizable within EVA constraints. Limitations of this system configuration are highlighted. An overview and development status is presented by Toyon Research Corporation concerning the development of an 802.16e compatible modem under NASA s Small Business Innovative Research (SBIR) Program. This modem is based on the recommended system profile developed as part of this report. Last, a path forward is outlined that presents an evolvable solution for the EVA radio system and lunar surface radio networks. This solution is based on a custom link layer, and 802.16e compliant physical layer compliant to the identified system profile, and a later progression to a fully interoperable 802.16e system.

Foore, Lawrence R.↗

Analytical Voltage Sensitivity Analysis for Unbalanced Power Distribution System

Large scale integration of distributed energy resources and electric vehicles in a transactive energy environment present new challenges in terms of voltage stability and fluctuations in a power distribution system. The impact of different level of DER/EV penetration on the voltages across the network is typically quantified through voltage sensitivity analyses. Existing methods of voltage sensitivity analysis are computationally expensive and prior efforts to develop analytical approximation lacks generality and have not been effectively validated. The objective of this work is to provide a new analytical method of voltage sensitivity analysis that has low computational cost and also allows for stochastic analysis of voltage change. This paper first derives an analytical approximation of change in voltage at a particular bus due to change in power consumption at other bus in a radial three phase unbalanced power distribution system. Then, the proposed method is shown to be valid for different load configurations, which demonstrates its generality. The results from our analytical approach is validated via classical load flow simulation of the test system based on IEEE 37 bus network. The proposed method is shown to have good accuracy, and computation complexity is of order O(1), compared to O(n3) in classical sensitivity analysis approaches.

Munikoti, Sai↗

Neural networks application to divergence-based passive ranging

The purpose of this report is to summarize the state of knowledge and outline the planned work in divergence-based/neural networks approach to the problem of passive ranging derived from optical flow. Work in this and closely related areas is reviewed in order to provide the necessary background for further developments. New ideas about devising a monocular passive-ranging system are then introduced. It is shown that image-plan divergence is independent of image-plan location with respect to the focus of expansion and of camera maneuvers because it directly measures the object's expansion which, in turn, is related to the time-to-collision. Thus, a divergence-based method has the potential of providing a reliable range complementing other monocular passive-ranging methods which encounter difficulties in image areas close to the focus of expansion. Image-plan divergence can be thought of as some spatial/temporal pattern. A neural network realization was chosen for this task because neural networks have generally performed well in various other pattern recognition applications. The main goal of this work is to teach a neural network to derive the divergence from the imagery.

Barniv, Yair↗

Decentralized Low-Rank State Estimation for Power Distribution Systems

This article considers the low-observability state estimation problem in power distribution networks and develops a decentralized state estimation algorithm leveraging the matrix completion methodology. Matrix completion has been shown to be an effective technique in state estimation that exploits the low dimensionality of the power system measurements to recover missing information. This technique can utilize an approximate (linear) load flow model, or it can be used with no physical models in a network where no information about the topology or line admittance is available. The direct application of matrix completion algorithms requires solving a semi-definite programming (SDP) problem, which becomes computationally challenging for large networks. We therefore develop a decentralized algorithm that capitalizes on the popular proximal alternating direction method of multipliers (proximal ADMM). The method allows us to distribute the computation among different areas of the network, leading to a scalable algorithm. By doing all computations at individual control areas and only communicating with neighboring areas, the algorithm eliminates the need for data to be sent to a central processing unit and thus increases efficiency and contributes to the goal of autonomous control of distribution networks. We illustrate the advantages of the proposed algorithm numerically using standard IEEE test cases.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗

Characteristics of individuals with high information potential in government research and development organizations.

In order to study focal individuals within informal communications networks, a special variable was constructed: information potential (IP) was defined as the information-source value placed on an individual by his colleagues. Four hypotheses involving IP were tested in three R&D organizations using questionnaires and pencil-and-paper tests. Results indicated that the individual with high IP used more and different sources of technical information, was seen to be a credible information source and to have a strong ability to associate seemingly unrelated ideas, and was as approachable as the other members of his organization. Four tentative conclusions may be drawn from this study concerning the person with high IP. He is (1) an identifiable individual in several different kinds of organizations; (2) a distinctive information transceiver (transmitter and receiver); (3) both a producer and a catalyst in his own organization; and (4) an extender and an amplifier of information search. To affect the efficiency of informal information flow, the research manager's best hope for positively influencing informal networks lies in the identification and motivation of the special communicators in his organization.

Holland, W. E.↗

Looked at Life from Both Sides Now

As the molecular top–down causality emerging through comparative genomics is combined with the bottom–up dynamic chemical networks of biochemistry, the molecular symbiotic relationships driving growth of the tree of life becomes strikingly apparent. These symbioses can be mutualistic or parasitic across many levels, but most foundational is the complex and intricate mutualism of nucleic acids and proteins known as the central dogma of biological information flow. This unification of digital and analog molecular information within a common chemical network enables processing of the vast amounts of information necessary for cellular life. Here we consider the molecular information pathways of these dynamic biopolymer networks from the perspective of their evolution and use that perspective to inform and constrain pathways for the construction of mutualistic polymers.

chemical and biomolecular evolution↗

Future SDN-HPON Control Plane Architecture and Protocol for On-Demand Terabit End-to-End Extreme-Scale Science Applications

The UC Davis team conducted architecture, algorithm and experimental studies for next generation ultra-high-bandwidth optical networks in support of extreme-scale science applications. In particular, over the course of this 3-year project, the UC Davis team achieved the following main accomplishments: Designed a network architecture for automated multi-domain service provisioning: Designed information exchange schemes between autonomous systems (domains) Designed application programming interfaces to orchestrate resource reservation in data centers, high performance computation facilities, and communication networks belonging to different autonomous systems Experimentally assessed the multi-domain network architecture in a distributed field trial set-up connecting premises in three continents Designed a broker-based orchestrated multi-domain optical networking framework supporting observe-analyze-act cycle based cognitive inter-domain service provisioning: Designed an inter-domain operation mechanism, e.g., topology abstraction, for the broker plane and domain managers to collaboratively accomplish inter-domain service provisioning while respecting the autonomy of each administrative domain Designed an alien wavelength monitoring scheme and an artificial neural network based optical signal-to-noise ratio estimator for quality-of-transmission aware inter-domain service provisioning Developed a deep neural network based multi-domain traffic predictor and a cognitive routing and spectrum assignment algorithm to realize knowledge-based autonomous traffic engineering in multi-domain networks Implemented an optical signal-to-noise ratio estimator and traffic predictor with Google’s Tensor flow and assessed their performance using experimental and synthetic data Demonstrated the benefits of the proposed cognitive schemes with experiments ona two-domain elastic optical network testbed and evaluations on a six-domain simulation framework Built a two-domain software-defined networking control plane testbed using the ONOS platform and demonstrated the workflow of broker and domain manager cooperation, including hierarchical performance monitoring, topology abstraction and cognitive resource allocation. Designed self-learning cognitive service provisioning schemes using advanced machine learning technologies: Designed a self-taught anomaly detection framework for optical networks, including an unsupervised data clustering module for pattern recognition, a supervised data regression and classification module for online anomaly detection, and the system operation principle Experimentally validated the effectiveness of the self-taught anomaly detection framework with various failure/anomaly scenarios. Designed a self-learning autonomic routing, modulation and spectrum assignment (RMSA) provisioning framework for elastic optical networks with deep reinforcement learning. Designed effective modeling and training mechanisms for the self-learning RMSA framework Conducted extensive numerical simulations with various traffic patterns and topologies to verify the advantage of the self-learning RMSA framework.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Optimization of Turbine Blade Design for Reusable Launch Vehicles

To facilitate design optimization of turbine blade shape for reusable launching vehicles, appropriate techniques need to be developed to process and estimate the characteristics of the design variables and the response of the output with respect to the variations of the design variables. The purpose of this report is to offer insight into developing appropriate techniques for supporting such design and optimization needs. Neural network and polynomial-based techniques are applied to process aerodynamic data obtained from computational simulations for flows around a two-dimensional airfoil and a generic three- dimensional wing/blade. For the two-dimensional airfoil, a two-layered radial-basis network is designed and trained. The performances of two different design functions for radial-basis networks, one based on the accuracy requirement, whereas the other one based on the limit on the network size. While the number of neurons needed to satisfactorily reproduce the information depends on the size of the data, the neural network technique is shown to be more accurate for large data set (up to 765 simulations have been used) than the polynomial-based response surface method. For the three-dimensional wing/blade case, smaller aerodynamic data sets (between 9 to 25 simulations) are considered, and both the neural network and the polynomial-based response surface techniques improve their performance as the data size increases. It is found while the relative performance of two different network types, a radial-basis network and a back-propagation network, depends on the number of input data, the number of iterations required for radial-basis network is less than that for the back-propagation network.

Shyy, Wei↗

Modeling the influence of preferential flow on the spatial variability and time-dependence of mineral weathering rates

Inferences of weathering rates from laboratory and field observations suggest significant scale and time-dependence. Preferential flow induced by heterogeneity (manifest as permeability variations or discrete fractures) has been suggested as one potential mechanism causing scale/time-dependence. In this paper, we present a quantitative evaluation of the influence of preferential flow on weathering rates using reactive transport modeling. Simulations were performed in discrete fracture networks (DFNs) and correlated random permeability fields (CRPFs), and compared to simulations in homogeneous permeability fields. The simulations reveal spatial variability in the weathering rate, multidimensional distribution of reactions zones, and the formation of rough weathering interfaces and corestones due to preferential flow. In the homogeneous fields and CRPFs, the domain-averaged weathering rate is initially constant as long as the weathering front is contained within the domain, reflecting equilibrium-controlled behavior. The behavior in the CRPFs was influenced by macrodispersion, with more spread-out weathering profiles, an earlier departure from the initial constant rate and longer persistence of weathering. DFN simulations exhibited a sustained time-dependence resulting from the formation of diffusion-controlled weathering fronts in matrix blocks, which is consistent with the shrinking core mechanism. A significant decrease in the domain-averaged weathering rate is evident despite high remaining mineral volume fractions, but the decline does not follow a math formula dependence, characteristic of diffusion, due to network scale effects and advection-controlled behavior near the inflow boundary. Finally, the DFN simulations also reveal relatively constant horizontally averaged weathering rates over a significant depth range, challenging the very notion of a weathering front.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

nn-PINNs: Non-Newtonian physics-informed neural networks for complex fluid modeling

Time- and rate-dependent material functions in non-Newtonian fluids in response to different deformation fields pose a challenge in integrating different constitutive models into conventional computational fluid dynamic platforms. Considering their relevance in many industrial and natural settings alike, robust data-driven frameworks that enable accurate modeling of these complex fluids are of great interest. The main goal is to solve the coupled Partial Differential Equations (PDEs) consisting of the constitutive equations that relate the shear stress to the deformation and fully capture the behavior of the fluid under various flow protocols with different boundary conditions. Here, in this work, we present non-Newtonian physics-informed neural networks (nn-PINNs) for solving systems of coupled PDEs adopted for complex fluid flow modeling. The proposed nn-PINN method is employed to solve the constitutive models in conjunction with conservation of mass and momentum by benefiting from Automatic Differentiation (AD) in neural networks, hence avoiding the mesh generation step. nn-PINNs are tested for a number of different complex fluids with different constitutive models and for several flow protocols. These include a range of Generalized Newtonian Fluid (GNF) empirical constitutive models, as well as some phenomenological models with memory effects and thixotropic timescales. nn-PINNs are found to obtain the correct solution of complex fluids in spatiotemporal domains with good accuracy compared to the ground truth solution. We also present applications of nn-PINNs for complex fluid modeling problems with unknown boundary conditions on the surface, and show that our approach can successfully recover the velocity and stress fields across the domain, including the boundaries, given some sparse velocity measurements.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Report on Year-4 of Water NSTF Matrix Testing: Facility Maintenance and Accident Testing

Under support from the Department of Energy (DOE) and the Office of Advanced Reactor Technologies (ART), a large-scale test facility has been constructed at Argonne National Laboratory to generate NQA-1 qualified validation data for passive decay heat removal systems in advanced reactors. The Natural convection Shutdown heat removal Test Facility (NSTF) reflects key features of a ½ scale, water-based, Reactor Cavity Cooling System (RCCS) and is intended to study the behavior, bound performance, and ultimately guide design decisions for passive decay heat removal systems for advanced reactors. In addition to the experimental activities detailed in this report, a supportive computational modeling effort is on-going which has been demonstrated to significantly strengthen the experimental program while also improving accuracy of the computer models. Together these create a mutually beneficial relationship integral to meeting the overall program objective of examining the heat removal performance of the RCCS concept. This report serves as a summary of maintenance and experimental activities during the program’s fourth year of water-based operation. A planned six-month maintenance period began in August 2021, during which major inspections, repairs, cleaning, and installation of new instrumentation and data acquisition hardware were conducted. Most significantly, two heaters that faulted during Year-3 were repaired, allowing the facility to resume use of the full heated section area and full range of available electric power. The remainder of the year consisted of eight months of test operations, during which the facility logged 211 hours of active heating across one bake-out (following the maintenance period) and seven matrix tests; five classifieds as Accepted per NQA-1, one as Trending, and one as Failed. Testing began by performing two repeat cases to confirm expected facility response and behavior during both single- and two-phase flow conditions, ensuring no changes were introduced during the maintenance period that might have altered the thermal-hydraulic characteristics of the facility. In continuation of the power parametric series initiated in previous years, a high-power test case was then performed examining heat removal performance at a decay heat load equivalent to 2.4 MWt, full-scale, a level exceeding maximum design targets. Additional testing then introduced various blockage scenarios along the network piping, examining the effects of partial and complete blockages of the flow paths on the system behavior and heat removal performance. A study of static boiling tests directed at understanding the geysering two-phase instability was also conducted. The loop was filled only to the bottom of the tank outlet, creating an open loop configuration that prevents any natural circulation flow from occurring, and the heaters were powered on until the facility reached saturation conditions. Following, a series of quasi-steady-state conditions were introduced by adjusting the inventory level in the adiabatic chimney piping at decreasingly lower elevations above the heated region. A strong correlation of geysering characteristics and loop level was observed, with flow and temperature excursions decreasing in intensity, but increasing in frequency, as the fill were reduced to lower elevations along the chimney piping. Once the level fell very low in the chimney, at points near the top of the heated section, the system reached a stable state of continuous boiling without any occurrence of geysering eruptions. A final significant testing accomplishment this year was successful completion of an “accident scenario” test, whose operating conditions were based on a prototypic decay heat curve provided by Framatome and scaled for the NSTF. This test began by establishing steady-state, single-phase “normal operation” conditions, before simulating an accident trip where the availability of active cooling systems was lost. Loop temperatures gradually increased until reaching saturation and subsequent two-phase boiling flow. Over the course of an extended operational period along the defined decay heat curve, steam boil-off caused gradual but continued depletion of liquid inventory until reaching a critically low level causing flow stagnation and cessation of natural circulation heat removal. At this point, after nearly 72 hours of continuous operation, a cold refill was performed to replenish the system inventory and allow the facility to re-establish closed loop natural circulation flow and return to a safe operational state.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Turbulent Compressible Convection with Rotation: Flow Structure and Evolution - Part 1

The effects of Coriolis forces on compressible convection are studied using three-dimensional numerical simulations carried out within a local modified f-plane model. The physics is simplified by considering a perfect gas occupying a rectilinear domain placed tangentially to a rotating sphere at various latitudes, through which a destabilizing heat flux is driven. The resulting convection is considered for a range of Rayleigh, Taylor, and Prandtl (and thus Rossby) numbers, evaluating conditions where the influence of rotation is both weak and strong. Given the computational demands of these high-resolution simulations, the parameter space is explored sparsely to ascertain the differences between laminar and turbulent rotating convection. The first paper in this series examines the effects of rotation on the flow structure within the convection, its evolution, and some consequences for mixing. Subsequent papers consider the large-scale mean shear flows that are generated by the convection, and the effects of rotation on the convective energetics and transport properties. It is found here that the structure of rotating turbulent convection is similar to earlier nonrotating studies, with a laminar, cellular surface network disguising a fully turbulent interior punctuated by vertically coherent structures. However, the temporal signature of the surface flows is modified by inertial motions to yield new cellular evolution patterns and an overall increase in the mobility of the network. The turbulent convection contains vortex tubes of many scales, including large-scale coherent structures spanning the full vertical extent of the domain involving multiple density scale heights. Remarkably, such structures align with the rotation vector via the influence of Coriolis forces on turbulent motions, in contrast with the zonal tilting of streamlines found in laminar flows. Such novel turbulent mechanisms alter the correlations which drive mean shearing flows and affect the convective transport properties. In contrast to this large-scale anisotropy, small-scale vortex tubes at greater depths are randomly orientated by the rotational mixing of momentum, leading to an increased degree of isotropy on the medium to small scales of motion there. Rotation also influences the thermodynamic mixing properties of the convection. In particular, interaction of the larger coherent vortices causes a loss of correlation between the vertical velocity and the temperature leaving a mean stratification which is not isentropic.

Brummell, Nicholas H.↗

Machine Learning Based Network Parameter Estimation Using AMI Data

The expansion of distribution power system and the growing penetration of distributed energy resources present new challenges for situational awareness. Calibrating the extended system model with sensor measurements and maintaining the usability is critical for utilities. This paper presents a distribution network parameter estimation (DNPE) approach using machine learning (ML) and metering data that improve the quality of extended distribution power system modeling. The reliability model can improve the ability of endpoint data to be translated into network-level situational awareness in real time and help distribution system operators (DSOs) solve branch flow and voltage problems. In addition, a data analytic and automate processing scheme is proposed to improve the sensor data quality and prevent misleading information. The effectiveness of the proposed method is verified with actual advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) data on a real utility feeder model, while considering the higher penetration of photovoltaic power generation. The test of DNPE and study results are demonstrated in this paper.

Parameter estimation, machine learning, power dist↗