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At least 1,297 records · Page 72

Implementation of the University of Miami Wave Model (UMWM) into the NASA/GMAO Goddard Earth Observing System Model (GEOS)

Wind generated waves are integral element in air-sea interactions and affect exchange of momentum, heat, water, gases and production of marine aerosol. Motivated by the need to resolve the air-sea interface we have implemented the University of Miami Wave model (UMWM) into the NASA/GMAO Goddard Earth Observing System Model (GEOS). The implementation of the wave model in GEOS aimed to facilitate coupling with the atmosphere and ocean model components with minimal changes to the existing system, while at the same time ensure correctness of the predicted wave energy spectrum and wave diagnostics. Here we describe the implementation of the GEOS/UMWM system and show results from model experiments and verifications. This work is a step toward development of a coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean GEOS system.

Darmenov, Anton↗

A Causal Approach to Integrate Component Health Data into System Reliability Models

Two of the challenges of current plant reliability approaches are the ability to integrate plant health data, and to support decision making. Condition based data and diagnostic/prognostic information are in fact not considered into plant reliability models to inform system engineers on the most critical components. Currently, the propagation of quantitative health data from the component to the system level is a challenge given the diverse nature/structure of the data. On the other hand, plant reliability methods (which are typically based on fault-trees or reliability block diagrams) can effectively propagate data from the component to the system level, but values of failure rates or failure probabilities are an approximated integral representation of the past industry-wide operational experience, and it neglects the present component health status (e.g., diagnostic and condition-based data) and health projection (when available from prognostic data). Our first claim is that system reliability models should propagate health information from the component to the system/plant level in order to provide a quantitative snapshot of system/plant health and identify the most critical components. Our second claim is that component health should be informed solely by that specific component current and historical performance data and should not be an approximated integral representation of the past industry-wide operational experience. This paper is directly supporting these two claims by proposing a different approach to perform reliability modeling which relies on available component diagnostic, prognostic and condition-based data to measure component health, and it propagates this information through fault tree models. The propagation of health data from the component to the system level is performed not in terms of probability, but in terms of margins where margin is defined as the “distance” between the present actual status and an undesired event (e.g., failure or unacceptable performance). Through a cause-effect lens, while classical reliability models target the effect associated to a component performance, a margin-based approach focuses on the cause of an undesired component performance (i.e., component health). Hence, thinking of reliability in terms of margins implies decision making based on causal reasoning. We will show how fault tree models can be solved using a margin language and how this process can effectively assist system engineers to identify the most critical components.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Some Progress in Large-Eddy Simulation using the 3-D Vortex Particle Method

This two-month visit at CTR was devoted to investigating possibilities in LES modeling in the context of the 3-D vortex particle method (=vortex element method, VEM) for unbounded flows. A dedicated code was developed for that purpose. Although O(N(sup 2)) and thus slow, it offers the advantage that it can easily be modified to try out many ideas on problems involving up to N approx. 10(exp 4) particles. Energy spectrums (which require O(N(sup 2)) operations per wavenumber) are also computed. Progress was realized in the following areas: particle redistribution schemes, relaxation schemes to maintain the solenoidal condition on the particle vorticity field, simple LES models and their VEM extension, possible new avenues in LES. Model problems that involve strong interaction between vortex tubes were computed, together with diagnostics: total vorticity, linear and angular impulse, energy and energy spectrum, enstrophy. More work is needed, however, especially regarding relaxation schemes and further validation and development of LES models for VEM. Finally, what works well will eventually have to be incorporated into the fast parallel tree code.

Winckelmans, G. S.↗

Influence of Coronal Abundance Variations

During the final year of this program we concentrated on understanding the how to constrain the models with the best available observations. Work on developing accurate temperature and density diagnostics fkom TRACE and CDS together with constrained fits of non-potential force free fields will be extremely useful in the guiding the next generation of coronal models. The program has produced three fully operation numerical codes that model multi-species of ions in coronal loops: Static models and constant flow models. The time dependent numerical models have not been completed. We have extended the steady flow investigations to study the effect these flows have on coronal structure as observed with TRACE. Coronal observations derive from heavy-ion emission; thus, we focus on the extent to which flow may modify coronal abundances by examining the heavy-ion abundance stratification within long-lived loops. We discuss the magnitudes of the physical effects modeled and compare simulated results with TRACE observations. These results can have a profound effect on the interpretation of TRACE observations.

Gurman, Joseph↗

Hybrid Kalman Filter: A New Approach for Aircraft Engine In-Flight Diagnostics

In this paper, a uniquely structured Kalman filter is developed for its application to in-flight diagnostics of aircraft gas turbine engines. The Kalman filter is a hybrid of a nonlinear on-board engine model (OBEM) and piecewise linear models. The utilization of the nonlinear OBEM allows the reference health baseline of the in-flight diagnostic system to be updated to the degraded health condition of the engines through a relatively simple process. Through this health baseline update, the effectiveness of the in-flight diagnostic algorithm can be maintained as the health of the engine degrades over time. Another significant aspect of the hybrid Kalman filter methodology is its capability to take advantage of conventional linear and nonlinear Kalman filter approaches. Based on the hybrid Kalman filter, an in-flight fault detection system is developed, and its diagnostic capability is evaluated in a simulation environment. Through the evaluation, the suitability of the hybrid Kalman filter technique for aircraft engine in-flight diagnostics is demonstrated.

Kobayashi, Takahisa↗

The Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) contribution to CMIP6

Our primary objective of CFMIP is to inform future assessments of cloud feedbacks through improved understanding of cloud–climate feedback mechanisms and better evaluation of cloud processes and cloud feedbacks in climate models. But, the CFMIP approach is also increasingly being used to understand other aspects of climate change, and so a second objective has now been introduced, to improve understanding of circulation, regional-scale precipitation, and non-linear changes. CFMIP is supporting ongoing model inter-comparison activities by coordinating a hierarchy of targeted experiments for CMIP6, along with a set of cloud-related output diagnostics. CFMIP contributes primarily to addressing the CMIP6 questions How does the Earth system respond to forcing? and What are the origins and consequences of systematic model biases? and supports the activities of the WCRP Grand Challenge on Clouds, Circulation and Climate Sensitivity. A compact set of Tier 1 experiments is proposed for CMIP6 to address this question: (1) what are the physical mechanisms underlying the range of cloud feedbacks and cloud adjustments predicted by climate models, and which models have the most credible cloud feedbacks? Additional Tier 2 experiments are proposed to address the following questions. (2) Are cloud feedbacks consistent for climate cooling and warming, and if not, why? (3) How do cloud-radiative effects impact the structure, the strength and the variability of the general atmospheric circulation in present and future climates? (4) How do responses in the climate system due to changes in solar forcing differ from changes due to CO 2 , and is the response sensitive to the sign of the forcing? (5) To what extent is regional climate change per CO 2 doubling state-dependent (non-linear), and why? (6) Are climate feedbacks during the 20th century different to those acting on long-term climate change and climate sensitivity? (7) How do regional climate responses (e.g. in precipitation) and their uncertainties in coupled models arise from the combination of different aspects of CO 2 forcing and sea surface warming? CFMIP also proposes a number of additional model outputs in the CMIP DECK, CMIP6 Historical and CMIP6 CFMIP experiments, including COSP simulator outputs and process diagnostics to address the following questions. How well do clouds and other relevant variables simulated by models agree with observations? What physical processes and mechanisms are important for a credible simulation of clouds, cloud feedbacks and cloud adjustments in climate models? Which models have the most credible representations of processes relevant to the simulation of clouds? How do clouds and their changes interact with other elements of the climate system?

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Facility Effect Characterization Test of NASA's HERMeS Hall Thruster

A test to characterize the effect of varying background pressure on NASA's 12.5-kW Hall Effect Rocket with Magnetic Shielding had being completed. This thruster is the baseline propulsion system for the Solar Electric Propulsion Technology Demonstration Mission (SEP TDM). Potential differences in thruster performance and oscillation characteristics when in ground facilities versus on-orbit are considered a primary risk for the propulsion system of the Asteroid Redirect Robotic Mission, which is a candidate for SEP TDM. The first primary objective of this test was to demonstrate that the tools being developed to predict the zero-background-pressure behavior of the thruster can provide self-consistent results. The second primary objective of this test was to provide data for refining a physics-based model of the thruster plume that will be used in spacecraft interaction studies. Diagnostics deployed included a thrust stand, Faraday probe, Langmuir probe, retarding potential analyzer, Wien filter spectrometer, and high-speed camera. From the data, a physics-based plume model was refined. Comparisons of empirical data to modeling results are shown.

Electric Propulsion↗

Oscillator strengths and transition probabilities from the Breit–Pauli R-matrix method: Ne IV

The atomic parameters–oscillator strengths, line strengths, radiative decay rates (A), and lifetimes–for fine structure transitions of electric dipole (E1) type for the astrophysically abundant ion Ne IV are presented. The results include 868 fine structure levels with n≤ 10, l≤ 9, and 1/2≤J≤ 19/2 of even and odd parities, and the corresponding 83,767 E1 transitions. The calculations were carried out using the relativistic Breit–Pauli R-matrix method in the close coupling approximation. The transitions have been identified spectroscopically using an algorithm based on quantum defect analysis and other criteria. The calculated energies agree with the 103 observed and identified energies to within 3% or better for most of the levels. Some larger differences are also noted. The A-values show good to fair agreement with the very limited number of available transitions in the table compiled by NIST, but show very good agreement with the latest published multi-configuration Hartree–Fock calculations. The present transitions should be useful for diagnostics as well as for precise and complete spectral modeling in the soft X-ray to infra-red regions of astrophysical and laboratory plasmas. -- Highlights: •The first application of BPRM method for accurate E1 transitions in Ne IV is reported. •Amount of atomic data (n going up to 10) is complete for most practical applications. •The calculated energies are in very good agreement with most observed levels. •Very good agreement of A-values and lifetimes with other relativistic calculations. •The results should provide precise nebular abundances, chemical evolution etc.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Estimating Uncertainty in Simulated ENSO Statistics

Abstract Large ensembles of model simulations are frequently used to reduce the impact of internal variability when evaluating climate models and assessing climate change induced trends. However, the optimal number of ensemble members required to distinguish model biases and climate change signals from internal variability varies across models and metrics. Here we analyze the mean, variance and skewness of precipitation and sea surface temperature in the eastern equatorial Pacific region often used to describe the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), obtained from large ensembles of Coupled model intercomparison project phase 6 climate simulations. Leveraging established statistical theory, we develop and assess equations to estimate, a priori, the ensemble size or simulation length required to limit sampling‐based uncertainties in ENSO statistics to within a desired tolerance. Our results confirm that the uncertainty of these statistics decreases with the square root of the time series length and/or ensemble size. Moreover, we demonstrate that uncertainties of these statistics are generally comparable when computed using either pre‐industrial control or historical runs. This suggests that pre‐industrial runs can sometimes be used to estimate the expected uncertainty of statistics computed from an existing historical member or ensemble, and the number of simulation years (run duration and/or ensemble size) required to adequately characterize the statistic. This advance allows us to use existing simulations (e.g., control runs that are performed during model development) to design ensembles that can sufficiently limit diagnostic uncertainties arising from simulated internal variability. These results may well be applicable to variables and regions beyond ENSO.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Integration of microplasma with transmission electron microscopy: Real-time observation of gold sputtering and island formation

An in situ platform for characterizing plasma-materials interactions at the nanoscale in the transmission electron microscope (TEM) has been demonstrated. Integrating a DC microplasma device, having plane-parallel electrodes with a 25 nm thick Au film on both the cathode and anode and operating in 760 Torr of Ar, within a TEM provides real-time observation of Au sputtering and island formation with a spatial resolution of , 100 nm. Analyses of TEM and atomic force microscopy images show the growth of Au islands to proceed by a Stranski-Krastanov process at a rate that varies linearly with the discharge power and is approximately a factor of 3 larger than the predictions of a DC plasma sputtering model. The experiments reported here extend in situ TEM diagnostics to plasma-solid and plasma-liquid interactions.

METAMATERIALS↗

Analysis of neoclassical tearing mode stabilization experiment by electron cyclotron injection in KSTAR

We report the neoclassical tearing mode (NTM) stabilization experimental results by injection of the electron cyclotron (EC) beam in KSTAR, and its analysis with integrated modelling. In the KSTAR experiment, NTM was intentionally induced and the EC beam was injected by the plasma control system (PCS) to stabilize it. Here, the EC angle was controlled based on the minimum seeking algorithm for the island growth rate. Although the EC angle was not changed significantly, the island width significantly decreased towards the end of the experiment followed by the recovery of plasma performance. To assess the NTM stabilization experiment from a stability perspective, we performed integrated modelling with TRIASSIC utilizing the reconstructed equilibrium with magnetic diagnostics and motional stark effect diagnostics. As a result, we observed that the NTM is stabilized by EC.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

An experimental and computational study of thin-layer Rayleigh–Taylor instability development during deceleration with and without an externally applied magnetic field

The importance of mitigating the Rayleigh–Taylor instability (RTI) in inertial confinement fusion (ICF) is critical to successfully achieve high gain fusion yield. Consequently, understanding the seed mechanisms of RTI and the potential evolution of RTI in ICF relevant conditions is crucial. Single feature perturbations consistently demonstrate non-linear RTI evolution, for which an experimental platform on OMEGA-EP is developed. Manufacturing defects introduced into the target design require exploration of unanticipated changes to RTI development and an identification of targets that will still render quantifiable physics results. Consequently, it is presented that the inherent 3D nature of experimental targets necessitates 3D modeling for accurate design work and predictive modeling of experimental targets, especially when high resolution imaging diagnostics, like Fresnel Zone Plates, are utilized. A study of the morphology of the RTI evolution due to changing initial conditions and the presence of an externally applied magnetic field are also explored. Experimental data show thin-layer RTI morphology comparable to resistive magneto hydrodynamic 3D results. A discussion on the impacts of an externally applied magnetic field makes the case for continued efforts to observe a magnetic field's impact on RTI morphology.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Direction dependence of the deceleration parameter

In this paper we study the possibly existing anisotropy in the accelerating expansion Universe by use of the full sample of Union2 data. Using the hemisphere comparison method to search for a preferred direction, we take the deceleration parameter q{sub 0} as the diagnostic to quantify the anisotropy level in the wCDM model. We find that the maximum accelerating expansion direction is (l,b) = (314deg {sub +20°}{sup −13°},28deg {sub +11°}{sup −33°}), with the maximum anisotropy level of Δq{sub 0,max}/ q-bar {sub 0} = 0.79{sub +0.27}{sup −0.28}, and that the anisotropy is more prominent when only low redshift data (z ≤ 0.2) are used. We also discuss this issue in the CPL parameterized model, showing a similar result.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Full-wave model for the lower hybrid wave electric field vector with synthetic turbulence on Alcator C-Mod

The effects of synthetic turbulence on lower hybrid (LH) wave field magnitude and polarization are studied on Alcator C-Mod. Three synthetic turbulence models are evaluated to assess the impact of filaments, holes, and periodic fluctuations on the LH wave electric fields. For all three cases, the synthetic turbulence can greatly impact the LH wave magnitude and polarization. Back scattering, interference and edge/SOL absorption of the LH wave is observed. This impact is shown to depend on the wavelength and amplitude of the fluctuations. The strongest effect appears for fluctuations at high amplitudes and wavelengths comparable to the LH wavelength. This synthetic turbulence model can be used as inputs into a synthetic diagnostic to calculate the lower hybrid wave field magnitude and direction measured by dynamic Stark effect spectroscopy. It will be shown that fluctuations at these high amplitudes and wavelengths may explain the experimentally measured results. Here, the effect of fluctuations on modifying LH polarization are also shown to be anti-correlated with SOL power losses, similar to recently observed experimental trends on Alcator C-Mod. These SOL losses may have detrimental impact on LHCD efficiency.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Transformer Health Monitoring via Synchrophasors

Traditional transformer protection schemes such as differential protection operate once the transformer is in a critical state. Proactive means of transformer health evaluation such as Sweep Frequency Response Analysis, can only be performed periodically with the transformer out-of-service. This work presents a framework where the health and structural integrity of transformers is monitored via synchrophasors in real-time. Synchrophasors and subspace estimation techniques are used to build reduced-order models which are then analyzed across multiple domains. A diagnostics algorithm is developed and tested via Matlab simulations. Test results are promising, opening up new prospects in transformer protection research.

cyber-physical security↗

Optimization of an on-board imaging system for extremely rapid radiation therapy

Purpose: Next-generation extremely rapid radiation therapy systems could mitigate the need for motion management, improve patient comfort during the treatment, and increase patient throughput for cost effectiveness. Such systems require an on-board imaging system that is competitively priced, fast, and of sufficiently high quality to allow good registration between the image taken on the day of treatment and the image taken the day of treatment planning. In this study, three different detectors for a custom on-board CT system were investigated to select the best design for integration with an extremely rapid radiation therapy system. Methods: Three different CT detectors are proposed: low-resolution (all 4 × 4 mm pixels), medium-resolution (a combination of 4 × 4 mm pixels and 2 × 2 mm pixels), and high-resolution (all 1 × 1 mm pixels). An in-house program was used to generate projection images of a numerical anthropomorphic phantom and to reconstruct the projections into CT datasets, henceforth called “realistic” images. Scatter was calculated using a separate Monte Carlo simulation, and the model included an antiscatter grid and bowtie filter. Diagnostic-quality images of the phantom were generated to represent the patient scan at the time of treatment planning. Commercial deformable registration software was used to register the diagnostic-quality scan to images produced by the various on-board detector configurations. The deformation fields were compared against a “gold standard” deformation field generated by registering initial and deformed images of the numerical phantoms that were used to make the diagnostic and treatment-day images. Registrations of on-board imaging system data were judged by the amount their deformation fields differed from the corresponding gold standard deformation fields—the smaller the difference, the better the system. To evaluate the registrations, the pointwise distance between gold standard and realistic registration deformation fields was computed. Results: By most global metrics (e.g., mean, median, and maximum pointwise distance), the high-resolution detector had the best performance but the medium-resolution detector was comparable. For all medium- and high-resolution detector registrations, mean error between the realistic and gold standard deformation fields was less than 4 mm. By pointwise metrics (e.g., tracking a small lesion), the high- and medium-resolution detectors performed similarly. For these detectors, the smallest error between the realistic and gold standard registrations was 0.6 mm and the largest error was 3.6 mm. Conclusions: The medium-resolution CT detector was selected as the best for an extremely rapid radiation therapy system. In essentially all test cases, data from this detector produced a significantly better registration than data from the low-resolution detector and a comparable registration to data from the high-resolution detector. The medium-resolution detector provides an appropriate compromise between registration accuracy and system cost.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Uncertainty Propagation from Experiment Measurements to Modeling Approaches: A Case for SMR Steam Entrainment Testing

To license new and advanced reactor designs, regulators must be convinced that their unique safety cases—relative to existing large scale reactors—have been adequately addressed by the designed reactor protection systems. In water cooled small modular reactors (SMRs), droplet entrainment in steam flow has significant implications on the progression of accident scenarios due to its compact design features, which requires representative test data applicable to SMR designs. Computer code, modeling and simulation (M&S) tools and models require adequate verification, assessment, and qualification. This includes M&S results validation against scaled empirical data within allowable uncertainty bands to gain regulatory approvals during the various stages of reactor system design, demonstration, and commercialization. However, measurement uncertainty within the empirical datasets and test data applicability ranges requires careful consideration of M&S inputs (i.e., boundary conditions, and initial conditions), and verification and validation efforts. This study focuses on uncertainty quantification in designing scaled test facilities for SMR applications with appropriate measurements and a standard data-reduction method to estimate thermal hydraulics characteristics parameters that incorporate physics phenomena of interest. In addition, this study supports the evaluation model development and assessment process using M&S that interfaces with advanced computing tools and digital twin capabilities. This will allow synchronization between experiment and modeling approaches for droplet entrainment testing and analysis, improving diagnostics, prognostics, and decision-making to accelerate regulatory approval.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Experimental and Theoretical Understanding of Neutron Capture on Uranium Isotopes

Neutron capture cross sections on uranium isotopes are important quantities needed to model nuclear explosion performance, nuclear reactor design, nuclear test diagnostics, and nuclear forensics. It has been difficult to calculate capture accurately, and factors of 2 or more be- tween calculation and measurements are not uncommon, although normalization to measurements of the average capture width and nuclear level density can improve the result. The calculations of capture for 233,235,237,239 U are further complicated by the need to accurately include the fission channel.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗