NASA NTRS2021
Ground induced currents (GICs) due to space weather are a threat to high voltage power transmission systems. However, knowledge of ground conductivity is the largest source of errors in the determination of GICs. A good proxy for GICs is dB/dt obtained from the Bx and By components of the magnetic field fluctuations. It is known that dB/dt values associated with magnetic storms can reach dangerous levels for power transmission systems. On the other hand, it is not uncommon for dB/dt values associated with substorms to exceed prior Pulkkinen and Molinski critical thresholds of 1.5 nT/s and 5 nT/s, respectively, and the temporal and spatial changes of the dB/dt associated with substorms, unlike storms, are not well understood. Using two dimensional maps of dB/dt over North America and Greenland derived from the spherical elementary currents, we investigate the temporal and spatial change of dB/dt for both a single substorm event and a two dimensional superposed epoch analysis of many substorms. Both the single event and the statistical analysis shows a sudden increase of dB/dt at substorm onset followed by an expansion poleward, westward, and eastward after the onset during the expansion phase. The area of dB/dt values exceeding the two critical thresholds from the initial onset dB/dt values showed little to no expansion equatorward. The temporal and spatial development of the dB/dt resembles the temporal and spatial change of the auroral emissions. Substorm values of dB/dt peak shortly after the auroral onset time and in at least one event exceeded 35 nT/s for a non-storm time substorm. In many of our 81 cases the area that exceeds the threshold of 1.5 nT/s is over several million square kilometers and after about 30 minutes the dB/dt values fall below the threshold level. These results address one of goals of the Space Weather Action Plan, which are to establish benchmarks for space weather events and improve modeling and prediction of their impacts on infrastructure. Plain language: The change in the ground magnetic field with respect to time (dB/dt) associated with magnetic storms (a large disturbance of the magnetic field of the earth) can reach dangerous levels for power transmission systems. On the other hand, substorms, which are a smaller more localized disturbance of the Earth’s magnetic field, are more common. It is not uncommon for substorm dB/dt values to also exceed dangerous levels and the temporal and spatial changes of the dB/dt associated with substorms, unlike storms, are not well understood. Our analysis shows a sudden increase of dB/dt at substorm onset, which peaks shortly after the start of the substorm, followed shortly after by an expansion northward, westward, and eastward after the onset.