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At least 1,297 records · Page 72

RAVEN: Dynamic Event Tree Approach Level III Milestone

Conventional Event-Tree (ET) based methodologies are extensively used as tools to perform reliability and safety assessment of complex and critical engineering systems. One of the disadvantages of these methods is that timing/sequencing of events and system dynamics are not explicitly accounted for in the analysis. In order to overcome these limitations several techniques, also know as Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment (DPRA), have been developed. Monte-Carlo (MC) and Dynamic Event Tree (DET) are two of the most widely used D-PRA methodologies to perform safety assessment of Nuclear Power Plants (NPP). In the past two years, the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) has developed its own tool to perform Dynamic PRA: RAVEN (Reactor Analysis and Virtual control ENvironment). RAVEN has been designed to perform two main tasks: 1) control logic driver for the new Thermo-Hydraulic code RELAP-7 and 2) post-processing tool. In the first task, RAVEN acts as a deterministic controller in which the set of control logic laws (user defined) monitors the RELAP-7 simulation and controls the activation of specific systems. Moreover, the control logic infrastructure is used to model stochastic events, such as components failures, and perform uncertainty propagation. Such stochastic modeling is deployed using both MC and DET algorithms. In the second task, RAVEN processes the large amount of data generated by RELAP-7 using data-mining based algorithms. This report focuses on the analysis of dynamic stochastic systems using the newly developed RAVEN DET capability. As an example, a DPRA analysis, using DET, of a simplified pressurized water reactor for a Station Black-Out (SBO) scenario is presented.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

RAVEN. Dynamic Event Tree Approach Level III Milestone

Conventional Event-Tree (ET) based methodologies are extensively used as tools to perform reliability and safety assessment of complex and critical engineering systems. One of the disadvantages of these methods is that timing/sequencing of events and system dynamics are not explicitly accounted for in the analysis. In order to overcome these limitations several techniques, also know as Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment (DPRA), have been developed. Monte-Carlo (MC) and Dynamic Event Tree (DET) are two of the most widely used D-PRA methodologies to perform safety assessment of Nuclear Power Plants (NPP). In the past two years, the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) has developed its own tool to perform Dynamic PRA: RAVEN (Reactor Analysis and Virtual control ENvironment). RAVEN has been designed to perform two main tasks: 1) control logic driver for the new Thermo-Hydraulic code RELAP-7 and 2) post-processing tool. In the first task, RAVEN acts as a deterministic controller in which the set of control logic laws (user defined) monitors the RELAP-7 simulation and controls the activation of specific systems. Moreover, the control logic infrastructure is used to model stochastic events, such as components failures, and perform uncertainty propagation. Such stochastic modeling is deployed using both MC and DET algorithms. In the second task, RAVEN processes the large amount of data generated by RELAP-7 using data-mining based algorithms. This report focuses on the analysis of dynamic stochastic systems using the newly developed RAVEN DET capability. As an example, a DPRA analysis, using DET, of a simplified pressurized water reactor for a Station Black-Out (SBO) scenario is presented.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Envisioning a 21st Century, National, Spacecraft Servicing and Protection Infrastructure and Demand Potential: A Logical Development of the Earth Orbit Economy

The modern world is extremely dependent on thin strings of several hundred civil, military, and commercial spacecraft/satellites currently stationed in space. They provide a steady stream of commerce, defense, and knowledge data. This dependency will in all likelihood increase significantly during this century. A major disruption of any kind in these essential systems and networks could be socially, economically, and politically catastrophic, on a global scale. The development of a space-based, robotic services economy could be useful in mitigating this growing risk, from an efficiency and security standpoint. This paper attempts to suggest what makes sense to invest in next for the logical, economic development of Earth orbit i.e., after ISS completion. It expands on the results of an advanced market research and analysis study that sampled the opinions of several satellite industry executives and presents these results within a broad policy context. The concept of a spacecraft carrier that serves as the nucleus of a national, space-based or on-orbit, robotic services infrastructure is introduced as the next logical step for United States leadership in space. This is viewed as a reasonable and appropriate followon to the development of ELVs and satellites in the 1950s and 1960s, the Space Shuttle/PRLV in the 1970s and 1980s, and the International Space Station (ISS) in the 1980s, 1990s and 2000s. Large-scale experience in LEO-to-GEO spacecraft/satellite servicing and protection by robotic means is assumed to be an indispensable prerequisite or stepping-stone toward the development and preservation of the large scientific exploration facilities that are envisioned by NASA for operation beyond GEO. A balanced, return on national investment (RONI) strategy for space, focused on the provision of enhanced national/homeland security for increased protection, national economic/industrial expansion for increased revenue, and national scientific exploration for increased knowledge is recommended as the next strong, irrepressible goal toward realizing and achieving the official NASA vision and mission.

Horsham, Gary A.↗

Certification of tactics and strategies in aviation

The paper suggests that the 'tactics and strategies' notion is a highly suitable paradigm to describe the cognitive involvement of human operators in advanced aviation systems (far more suitable than classical functional analysis), and that the workload and situational awareness of operators are intimately associated with the planning and execution of their tactics and strategies. If system designers have muddled views about the collective tactics and strategies to be used during operation, they will produce sub-optimum designs. If operators use unproven and/or inappropriate tactics and strategies, the system may fail. The author wants to make a point that, beyond certification of people or system designs, there may be a need to go into more detail and examine (certify?) the set of tactics and strategies (i.e., the Operational Concept) which makes the people and systems perform as expected. The collective tactics and strategies determine the information flows and situational awareness which exists in organizations and composite human-machine systems. The available infrastructure and equipment (automation) enable these information flows and situational awareness, but are at the same time the constraining factor. Frequently, the tactics and strategies are driven by technology, whereas we would rather like to see a system designed to support an optimized Operational Concept, i.e., to support a sufficiently coherent, cooperative and modular set of anticipation and planning mechanisms. Again, in line with the view of MacLeod and Taylor (1993), this technology driven situation may be caused by the system designer's and operator job designer's over-emphasis on functional analysis (a mechanistic engineering concept), at the expense of a subject which does not seem to be well understood today: the role of the (human cognitive and/or automated) tactics and strategies which are embedded in composite human-machine systems. Research would be needed to arrive at a generally accepted 'planning theory' which can elevate the analysis, description and design of tactics and strategies from today's cottage industry methods to an engineering discipline. The available infrastructure and equipment (automation) enable these information flows and situational awareness, but are at the same time the constraining factor. Frequently, the tactics and strategies are driven by technology, whereas we would rather like to see a system designed to support an optimized Operational Concept, i.e., to support a sufficiently coherent, cooperative and modular set of anticipation and planning mechanisms. Again, in line with the view of MacLeod and Taylor (1993), this technology driven situation may be caused by the system designer's and operator job designer's over-emphasis on functional analysis (a mechanistic engineering concept), at the expense of a subject which does not seem to be well understood today: the role of the (human cognitive and/or automated) tactics and strategies which are embedded in composite human-machine systems. Research would be needed to arrive at a generally accepted 'planning theory' which can evaluate the analysis, description and design of tactics and strategies from today's cottage industry methods to an engineering discipline.

Koelman, Hartmut↗

An Uncertainty Quantification Framework for Studying the Effect of Spatial Heterogeneity in Reservoir Permeability on CO2 Sequestration

In this paper, we introduce an uncertainty quantification (UQ) software framework for carbon sequestration, focused on the effect of spatial heterogeneity of reservoir properties on CO2 migration. We use a sequential Gaussian method (SGSIM) to generate realizations of permeability fields with various spatial statistical attributes. To deal with the computational difficulties, we integrate the following ideas/approaches. First, we use three different sampling approaches (probabilistic collocation, quasi-Monte Carlo, and adaptive sampling) to reduce the number of forward calculations while trying to explore the parameter space and quantify the input uncertainty. Second, we use eSTOMP as the forward modeling simulator. eSTOMP is implemented with the Global Arrays toolkit that is based on one-sided inter-processor communication and supports a shared memory programming style on distributed memory platforms, providing a highly-scalable performance. Third, we built an adaptive system infrastructure to select the best possible data transfer mechanisms, to optimally allocate system resources to improve performance and to integrate software packages and data for composing carbon sequestration simulation, computation, analysis, estimation and visualization. We demonstrate the framework with a given CO2 injection scenario in heterogeneous sandstone reservoirs.

Carbon sequestration, uncertainty quantification, ↗

An OpenStreetMaps based tool to study the energy demand and emissions impact of electrification of medium and heavy-duty freight trucks

In this paper, we present the mathematical formulation of an OpenStreetMaps (OSM) based tool that compares the costs and emissions of long-haul medium and heavy-duty (M&HD) electric and diesel freight trucks, and determines the spatial distribution of added energy demand due to M&HD EVs. The optimization utilizes a combination of information on routes from OSM, utility rate design data across the United States, and freight volume data, to determine these values. In order to deal with the computational complexity of this problem, we formulate the problem as a convex optimization problem that is scalable to a large geographic area. In our analysis, we further evaluate various scenarios of utility rate design (energy charges) and EV penetration rate across different geographic regions and their impact on the operating cost and emissions of the freight trucks. Our approach determines the net emissions reduction benefits of freight electrification by considering the primary energy source in different regions. Such analysis will provide insights to policy makers in designing utility rates for electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE) operators depending upon the specific geographic region and to electric utilities in deciding infrastructure upgrades based on the spatial distribution of the added energy demand of M&HD EVs. To showcase the results, a case study for the U.S. state of Texas is conducted.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Cost, Energy, and Environmental Impact of Automated Electric Taxi Fleets in Manhattan

It has been shown that shared automated electric vehicles (SAEVs) hold great promise for improving transportation access in urban centers while drastically reducing transportation-related energy consumption and air pollution. Using taxi-trip data from New York City, we develop an agent-based model to predict the battery range and charging infrastructure requirements of a fleet of SAEVs operating on Manhattan Island. We also develop a model to estimate the cost and environmental impact of providing service and perform extensive sensitivity analysis to test the robustness of our predictions. We estimate that costs will be lowest with a battery range of 50-90 mi, with either 66 chargers per square mile, rated at 11 kW or 44 chargers per square mile, rated at 22 kW. We estimate that the cost of service provided by such an SAEV fleet will be $0.29-$0.61 per revenue mile, an order of magnitude lower than the cost of service of present-day Manhattan taxis and $0.05-$0.08/mi lower than that of an automated fleet composed of any currently available hybrid or internal combustion engine vehicle (ICEV). We estimate that such an SAEV fleet drawing power from the current NYC power grid would reduce GHG emissions by 73% and energy consumption by 58% compared to an automated fleet of ICEVs.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Galápagos tortoise stable isotope ecology and the 1850s Floreana Island Chelonoidis niger niger extinction

A consequence of over 400 years of human exploitation of Galápagos tortoises (Chelonoidis niger ssp.) is the extinction of several subspecies and the decimation of others. As humans captured, killed, and/or removed tortoises for food, oil, museums, and zoos, they also colonized the archipelago resulting in the introduction of invasive plants, animals, and manipulated landscapes for farming, ranching, and infrastructure. Given current conservation and revitalization efforts for tortoises and their habitats, here we investigate nineteenth and twentieth century Galápagos tortoise dietary ecology using museum and archaeological specimens coupled with analysis of carbon (δ 13 C collagen and δ 13 Capatite), nitrogen (δ 15 N), hydrogen (δD) and oxygen (δ 18 O apatite ) stable isotopes and radiocarbon dating. We identify that Galápagos tortoise diets vary between and within islands over time, and that long-term anthropogenic impacts influenced change in tortoise stable isotope ecology by using 57 individual tortoises from 10 different subspecies collected between 1833 and 1967—a 134-year period. On lower elevation islands, which are often hotter and drier, tortoises tend to consume more C 4 vegetation (cacti and grasses). Our research suggests human exploitation of tortoises and anthropogenic impacts on vegetation contributed to the extinction of the Floreana Island tortoise (C. n. niger) in the 1850s.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

An Edge-Cloud Integrated Solution for Buildings Demand Response Using Reinforcement Learning

Buildings, as major energy consumers, can provide great untapped demand response (DR) resources for grid services. However, their participation remains low in real-life. One major impediment for popularizing DR in buildings is the lack of cost-effective automation systems that can be widely adopted. Existing optimization-based smart building control algorithms suffer from high costs on both building-specific modeling and on-demand computing resources. To tackle these issues, this paper proposes a cost-effective edge-cloud integrated solution using reinforcement learning (RL). Beside RL’s ability to solve sequential optimal decision-making problems, its adaptability to easy-to-obtain building models and the off-line learning feature are likely to reduce the controller’s implementation cost. Using a surrogate building model learned automatically from building operation data, an RL agent learns an optimal control policy on cloud infrastructure, and the policy is then distributed to edge devices for execution. Simulation results demonstrate the control efficacy and the learning efficiency in buildings of different sizes. A preliminary cost analysis on a 4-zone commercial building shows the annual cost for optimal policy training is only 2.25% of the DR incentive received. Results of this study show a possible approach with higher return on investment for buildings to participate in DR programs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

SIERRA Toolkit v. 2.0

The SIERRA Toolkit is a collection of libraries to facilitate the development of parallel engineering analysis applications. These libraries supply basic core services that an engineering application may need such as a parallel distributed and dynamic mesh database (for unstructured meshes), mechanics algorithm support (parallel infrastructure only), interfaces to parallel solvers, parallel mesh and data I/O, and various utilities (timers, diagnostic tools, etc.)

Coffey, Todd↗

Biogas and Hydrogen Systems Market Assessment

This analysis provides an overview of the market for biogas-derived hydrogen and its use in transportation applications. It examines the current hydrogen production technologies from biogas, capacity and production, infrastructure, potential and demand, as well as key market areas. It also estimates the production cost of hydrogen from biogas and provides supply curves at a national level and at point source.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

Biogas and Hydrogen Systems Market Assessment

This analysis provides an overview of the market for biogas-derived hydrogen and its use in transportation applications. It examines the current hydrogen production technologies from biogas, capacity and production, infrastructure, potential and demand, as well as key market areas. It also estimates the production cost of hydrogen from biogas and provides supply curves at a national level and at point source.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

Biogas and Hydrogen Systems Market Assessment

This analysis provides an overview of the market for biogas-derived hydrogen and its use in transportation applications. It examines the current hydrogen production technologies from biogas, capacity and production, infrastructure, potential and demand, as well as key market areas. It also estimates the production cost of hydrogen from biogas and provides supply curves at a national level and at point source.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles in Tunnels

There are numerous vehicles which utilize alternative fuels, or fuels that differ from typical hydrocarbons such as gasoline and diesel, throughout the world. Alternative vehicles include those running on the combustion of natural gas and propane as well as electrical drive vehicles utilizing batteries or hydrogen as energy storage. Because the number of alternative fuels vehicles is expected to increase significantly, it is important to analyze the hazards and risks involved with these new technologies with respect to the regulations related to specific transport infrastructure, such as bridges and tunnels. This report focuses on hazards presented by hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles that are different from traditional fuels. There are numerous scientific research and analysis publications on hydrogen hazards in tunnel scenarios; however, compiling the data to make conclusions can be a difficult process for tunnel owners and authorities having jurisdiction over tunnels. This report provides a summary of the available literature characterizing hazards presented by hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles, including light-duty, medium and heavy-duty, as well as buses. Research characterizing both worst-case and credible scenarios, as well as risk-based analysis, is summarized. Gaps in the research are identified to guide future research efforts to provide a complete analysis of the hazards and recommendations for the safe use of hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles in tunnels.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Fragility Functions Resource Report: Documented Sources for Electricity and Water Resilience Valuation

Fragility curves provide the vulnerability between hazard intensity and an asset. Federal installations may include many different electricity and water infrastructure types (or assets) such as generators, wind turbines, solar PV, switch yards, substations and power lines as well as water distribution systems that could be affected by different hazards. The vulnerability of each asset is a function of its age, type of materials and maintenance. In addition, the vulnerability changes with the hazards intensity and has a probability distribution function associated with it. The fragility functions are used in conjunction with hazard probability and consequence valuations to determine the values at risk for examination of investment grade analyses of alternative mitigation strategies. This document provides examples of fragility functions and links to their sources for different electricity and water infrastructure assets by hazard type.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Analysis of Benefits Associated With Projects and Technologies Supported by the Clean Transportation Program: 2023 Executive Summary [Slides]

In 2007, California Assembly Bills (AB) 118 and 109 created the Clean Transportation Program (CTP), which authorized the California Energy Commission (CEC) to fund projects concerning alternative fuels and advanced transportation technologies to help attain the state's climate change policies. AB 109 also required CEC to prepare a report summarizing the benefits resulting from the program. Since then, CEC has collaborated with National Renewable Energy Laboratory to prepare and publish biannual reports summarizing CTP's benefits related to petroleum displacement, greenhouse gas (GHG) reductions, air pollution, and more. This report updates the input data, calculation methodologies, and resulting outputs from CEC's 2021 report.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Environmental Evaluation of Gas Switching Reforming for Low Carbon Hydrogen: A Power-to-X Study

Gas Switching Reforming for hydrogen production (GSR-H2) offers a promising pathway for producing low-carbon hydrogen at scale, with significant implications for Power-to-X (PtX) systems that rely on clean hydrogen as a feedstock for synthetic fuels and chemicals. GSR-H2 integrates inherent carbon capture and thermal self-sufficiency, positioning it as an efficient alternative to conventional steam methane reforming (SMR), proton exchange membrane (PEM) electrolysis, and chemical looping reforming (CLR). Unlike SMR, GSR-H2 avoids external natural gas combustion by leveraging exothermic redox cycles to generate process steam and recover electricity internally. Its innovative reactor design consolidates all reforming stages within a single reactor cluster, eliminating the need for solid circulation found in CLR, thereby reducing capital costs and improving system reliability and scalability. This presentation describes the first environmental life cycle assessment (LCA) of GSR-H2, evaluating its environmental performance across U.S. grid and renewable energy scenarios. In a renewables-powered configuration, GSR-H2 achieves a global warming potential (GWP) of 2.77 kg CO2 equivalent per kg H2, substantially lower than SMR (10.4 kg) and competitive with PEM electrolysis (1.85 kg) and CLR (1.84 kg). Results across additional impact categories, including air quality and water use, support GSR-H2’s role as a complementary hydrogen source in PtX applications. Its reduced environmental burden, thermal integration, and simplified scale-up potential make GSR-H2 a viable contributor to net-zero PtX systems, particularly where renewable energy is abundant and electricity-intensive hydrogen production faces economic or infrastructure constraints.

03 NATURAL GAS↗