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At least 1,297 records · Page 72

Effects of Global Change on U.S. Urban Areas: Vulnerabilities, Impacts, and Adaptation

This slide presentation reviews some of the effects that global change has on urban areas in the United States and how the growth of urban areas will affect the environment. It presents the elements of our Synthesis and Assessment Report (SAP) report that relate to what vulnerabilities and impacts will occur, what adaptation responses may take place, and what possible effects on settlement patterns and characteristics will potentially arise, on human settlements in the U.S. as a result of climate change and climate variability. We will also present some recommendations about what should be done to further research on how climate change and variability will impact human settlements in the U.S., as well as how to engage government officials, policy and decision makers, and the general public in understanding the implications of climate change and variability on the local and regional levels. Additionally, we wish to explore how technology such as remote sensing data coupled with modeling, can be employed as synthesis tools for deriving insight across a spectrum of impacts (e.g. public health, urban planning for mitigation strategies) on how cities can cope and adapt to climate change and variability. This latter point parallels the concepts and ideas presented in the U.S. National Academy of Sciences, Decadal Survey report on "Earth Science Applications from Space: National Imperatives for the Next Decade and Beyond" wherein the analysis of the impacts of climate change and variability, human health, and land use change are listed as key areas for development of future Earth observing remote sensing systems.

Quattrochi, Dale A.↗

Predicting Airspace Capacity Impacts Using the Consolidated Storm Prediction for Aviation

Convective weather is currently the largest contributor to air traffic delays in the United States. In order to make effective traffic flow management decisions to mitigate these delays, weather forecasts must be made as early and as accurately as possible. A forecast product that could be used to mitigate convective weather impacts is the Consolidated Storm Prediction for Aviation. This product provides forecasts of cloud water content and convective top heights at 0- to 8-hour look-ahead times. The objective of this study was to examine a method of predicting the impact of convective weather on air traffic sector capacities using these forecasts. Polygons representing forecast convective weather were overlaid at multiple flight levels on a sector map to calculate the fraction of each sector covered by weather. The fractional volume coverage was used as the primary metric to determine convection s impact on sectors. Results reveal that the forecasts can be used to predict the probability and magnitude of weather impacts on sector capacity up to eight hours in advance.

Russell, Carl↗

Multi-Dimensional Calibration of Impact Dynamic Models

NASA Langley, under the Subsonic Rotary Wing Program, recently completed two helicopter tests in support of an in-house effort to study crashworthiness. As part of this effort, work is on-going to investigate model calibration approaches and calibration metrics for impact dynamics models. Model calibration of impact dynamics problems has traditionally assessed model adequacy by comparing time histories from analytical predictions to test at only a few critical locations. Although this approach provides for a direct measure of the model predictive capability, overall system behavior is only qualitatively assessed using full vehicle animations. In order to understand the spatial and temporal relationships of impact loads as they migrate throughout the structure, a more quantitative approach is needed. In this work impact shapes derived from simulated time history data are used to recommend sensor placement and to assess model adequacy using time based metrics and orthogonality multi-dimensional metrics. An approach for model calibration is presented that includes metric definitions, uncertainty bounds, parameter sensitivity, and numerical optimization to estimate parameters to reconcile test with analysis. The process is illustrated using simulated experiment data.

Horta, Lucas G.↗

Impact of Land Surface Heterogeneity on Mesoscale Atmospheric Dispersion

Prior numerical modelling studies show that atmospheric dispersion is sensitive to surface heterogeneities, but past studies do not consider the impact of a realistic distribution of surface heterogeneities on mesoscale atmospheric dispersion. While these focussed on dispersion in the convective boundary layer, the present work also considers dispersion in the nocturnal boundary layer and above. Using a Lagrangian particle dispersion model (LPDM) coupled to the Eulerian Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS), the impact of topographic, vegetation, and soil moisture heterogeneities on daytime and nighttime atmospheric dispersion is examined. In addition, the sensitivity to the use of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)-derived spatial distributions of vegetation characteristics on atmospheric dispersion is also studied. The impact of vegetation and terrain heterogeneities on atmospheric dispersion is strongly modulated by soil moisture, with the nature of dispersion switching from non-Gaussian to near- Gaussian behaviour for wetter soils (fraction of saturation soil moisture content exceeding 40%). For drier soil moisture conditions, vegetation heterogeneity produces differential heating and the formation of mesoscale circulation patterns that are primarily responsible for non-Gaussian dispersion patterns. Nighttime dispersion is very sensitive to topographic, vegetation, soil moisture, and soil type heterogeneity and is distinctly non-Gaussian for heterogeneous land-surface conditions. Sensitivity studies show that soil type and vegetation heterogeneities have the most dramatic impact on atmospheric dispersion. To provide more skillful dispersion calculations, we recommend the utilisation of satellite-derived vegetation characteristics coupled with data assimilation techniques that constrain soil-vegetation-atmosphere transfer (SVAT) models to generate realistic spatial distributions of surface energy fluxes.

Wu, Yuling↗

Lunar Meteoroid Impact Observations and the Flux of Kilogram-sized Meteoroids

Lunar impact monitoring provides useful information about the flux of meteoroids in the hundreds of grams to kilograms size range. The large collecting area of the night side of the lunar disk, approximately 3.8 10(exp 6)sq km in our camera field-of-view, provides statistically significant counts of the meteoroids striking the lunar surface. Over 200 lunar impacts have been observed by our program in roughly 4 years. Photometric calibration of the flashes observed in the first 3 years along with the luminous efficiency determined using meteor showers and hypervelocity impact tests (Bellot Rubio et al. 2000; Ortiz et al. 2006; Moser et al. 2010; Swift et al. 2010) provide their impact kinetic energies. The asymmetry in the flux on the evening and morning hemispheres of the Moon is compared with sporadic and shower sources to determine their most likely origin. These measurements are consistent with other observations of large meteoroid fluxes.

Suggs, R. M.↗

Indentured Parts List Maintenance and Part Assembly Capture Tool - IMPACT

Johnson Space Center's (JSC's) indentured parts list (IPL) maintenance and parts assembly capture tool (IMPACT) is an easy-to-use graphical interface for viewing and maintaining the complex assembly hierarchies of large databases. IMPACT, already in use at JSC to support the International Space Station (ISS), queries, updates, modifies, and views data in IPL and associated resource data, functions that it can also perform, with modification, for any large commercial database. By enabling its users to efficiently view and manipulate IPL hierarchical data, IMPACT performs a function unlike that of any other tool. Through IMPACT, users will achieve results quickly, efficiently, and cost effectively.

Jain, Bobby↗

Impact of Water Withdrawals from Groundwater and Surface Water on Continental Water Storage Variations

Humans have strongly impacted the global water cycle, not only water flows but also water storage. We have performed a first global-scale analysis of the impact of water withdrawals on water storage variations, using the global water resources and use model WaterGAP. This required estimation of fractions of total water withdrawals from groundwater, considering five water use sectors. According to our assessment, the source of 35% of the water withdrawn worldwide (4300 cubic km/yr during 1998-2002) is groundwater. Groundwater contributes 42%, 36% and 27% of water used for irrigation, households and manufacturing, respectively, while we assume that only surface water is used for livestock and for cooling of thermal power plants. Consumptive water use was 1400 cubic km/yr during 1998-2002. It is the sum of the net abstraction of 250 cubic km/yr of groundwater (taking into account evapotranspiration and return flows of withdrawn surface water and groundwater) and the net abstraction of 1150 km3/yr of surface water. Computed net abstractions indicate, for the first time at the global scale, where and when human water withdrawals decrease or increase groundwater or surface water storage. In regions with extensive surface water irrigation, such as Southern China, net abstractions from groundwater are negative, i.e. groundwater is recharged by irrigation. The opposite is true for areas dominated by groundwater irrigation, such as in the High Plains aquifer of the central USA, where net abstraction of surface water is negative because return flow of withdrawn groundwater recharges the surface water compartments. In intensively irrigated areas, the amplitude of seasonal total water storage variations is generally increased due to human water use; however, in some areas, it is decreased. For the High Plains aquifer and the whole Mississippi basin, modeled groundwater and total water storage variations were compared with estimates of groundwater storage variations based on groundwater table observations, and with estimates of total water storage variations from the GRACE satellites mission. Due to the difficulty in estimating area-averaged seasonal groundwater storage variations from point observations of groundwater levels, it is uncertain whether WaterGAP underestimates actual variations or not. We conclude that WaterGAP possibly overestimates water withdrawals in the High Plains aquifer where impact of human water use on water storage is readily discernible based on WaterGAP calculations and groundwater observations. No final conclusion can be drawn regarding the possibility of monitoring water withdrawals in the High Plains aquifer using GRACE. For the less intensively irrigated Mississippi basin, observed and modeled seasonal groundwater storage reveals a discernible impact of water withdrawals in the basin, but this is not the case for total water storage such that water withdrawals at the scale of the whole Mississippi basin cannot be monitored by GRACE.

Doell, Petra↗

SureTrak Probability of Impact Display

The SureTrak Probability of Impact Display software was developed for use during rocket launch operations. The software displays probability of impact information for each ship near the hazardous area during the time immediately preceding the launch of an unguided vehicle. Wallops range safety officers need to be sure that the risk to humans is below a certain threshold during each use of the Wallops Flight Facility Launch Range. Under the variable conditions that can exist at launch time, the decision to launch must be made in a timely manner to ensure a successful mission while not exceeding those risk criteria. Range safety officers need a tool that can give them the needed probability of impact information quickly, and in a format that is clearly understandable. This application is meant to fill that need. The software is a reuse of part of software developed for an earlier project: Ship Surveillance Software System (S4). The S4 project was written in C++ using Microsoft Visual Studio 6. The data structures and dialog templates from it were copied into a new application that calls the implementation of the algorithms from S4 and displays the results as needed. In the S4 software, the list of ships in the area was received from one local radar interface and from operators who entered the ship information manually. The SureTrak Probability of Impact Display application receives ship data from two local radars as well as the SureTrak system, eliminating the need for manual data entry.

Elliott, John↗

Distribution, Statistics, and Resurfacing of Large Impact Basins on Mercury

The distribution and geological history of large impact basins (diameter D greater than or equal to 300 km) on Mercury is important to understanding the planet's stratigraphy and surface evolution. It is also informative to compare the density of impact basins on Mercury with that of the Moon to understand similarities and differences in their impact crater and basin populations [1, 2]. A variety of impact basins were proposed on the basis of geological mapping with Mariner 10 data [e.g. 3]. This basin population can now be re-assessed and extended to the full planet, using data from the MErcury Surface, Space ENvironment, GEochemistry, and Ranging (MESSENGER) spacecraft. Note that small-to- medium-sized peak-ring basins on Mercury are being examined separately [4, 5]; only the three largest peak-ring basins on Mercury overlap with the size range we consider here. In this study, we (1) re-examine the large basins suggested on the basis of Mariner 10 data, (2) suggest additional basins from MESSENGER's global coverage of Mercury, (3) assess the size-frequency distribution of mercurian basins on the basis of these global observations and compare it to the Moon, and (4) analyze the implications of these observations for the modification history of basins on Mercury.

Fassett, Caleb I.↗

Characterization and Analysis of Triaxially Braided Polymer Composites under Static and Impact Loads

In order to design impact resistant aerospace components made of triaxially-braided polymer matrix composite materials, a need exists to have reliable impact simulation methods and a detailed understanding of the material behavior. Traditional test methods and specimen designs have yielded unrealistic material property data due to material mechanisms such as edge damage. To overcome these deficiencies, various alternative testing geometries such as notched flat coupons have been examined to alleviate difficulties observed with standard test methods. The results from the coupon level tests have been used to characterize and validate a macro level finite element-based model which can be used to simulate the mechanical and impact response of the braided composites. In the analytical model, the triaxial braid unit cell is approximated by using four parallel laminated composites, each with a different fiber layup, which roughly simulates the braid architecture. In the analysis, each of these laminated composites is modeled as a shell element. Currently, each shell element is considered to be a smeared homogeneous material. Simplified micromechanics techniques and lamination theory are used to determine the equivalent stiffness properties of each shell element, and results from the coupon level tests on the braided composite are used to back out the strength properties of each shell element. Recent improvements to the model include the incorporation of strain rate effects into the model. Simulations of ballistic impact tests have been carried out to investigate and verify the analysis approach.

Goldberg, Robert K.↗

Current and Future Impact Risks from Small Debris to Operational Satellites

The collision between Iridium 33 and Cosmos 2251 in 2009 signaled the potential onset of the collision cascade effect, commonly known as the "Kessler Syndrome", in the low Earth orbit (LEO) region. Recent numerical simulations have shown that the 10 cm and larger debris population in LEO will continue to increase even with a good implementation of the commonly-adopted mitigation measures. This increase is driven by collisions involving large and massive intacts, i.e., rocket bodies and spacecraft. Therefore, active debris removal (ADR) of large and massive intacts with high collision probabilities has been argued as a direct and effective means to remediate the environment in LEO. The major risk for operational satellites in the environment, however, comes from impacts with debris just above the threshold of the protection shields. In general, these are debris in the millimeter to centimeter size regime. Although impacts by these objects are insufficient to lead to catastrophic breakup of the entire vehicle, the damage is certainly severe enough to cause critical failure of the key instruments or the entire payload. The focus of this paper is to estimate the impact risks from 5 mm and 1 cm debris to active payloads in LEO (1) in the current environment and (2) in the future environment based on different projection scenarios, including ADR. The goal of the study is to quantify the benefits of ADR in reducing debris impact risks to operational satellites.

Liou, Jer-Chyi↗

Ballistic Impact Testing of Aluminum 2024 and Titanium 6Al-4V for Material Model Development

An experimental program is underway to develop a consistent set of material property and impact test data, and failure analysis, for a variety of materials that can be used to develop improved impact failure and deformation models. Unique features of this set of data are that all material property information and impact test results are obtained using identical materials, the test methods and procedures are extensively documented and all of the raw data is available. This report describes ballistic impact testing which has been conducted on aluminum (Al) 2024 and titanium (Ti) 6Al-4vanadium (V) sheet and plate samples of different thicknesses and with different types of projectiles, one a regular cylinder and one with a more complex geometry incorporating features representative of a jet engine fan blade.

Pereira, J. Michael↗

Exploration of COTS Ultrasonic NDE Methods for ISS MMOD Impact Analysis

The high orbital speed of the International Space Station (ISS) has created a concern about Micro-Meteorite and Orbital Debris (MMOD). The possibility exists that such an impact could cause significant damage to the ISS pressure wall, and possibly lead to a pressure leak. This paper explores the potential of using commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) Ultrasonic Non-Destructive Evaluation (NDE) techniques in order to inspect and analyze MMOD impact damage if such an event would happen to occur. Different types of intra vehicular activity (IVA) Ultrasonic NDE equipment were evaluated, including the Olympus Omniscan MX and the General Electric Phasor XS. The equipment was tested by inspecting various aluminum standards and impact damage test plates in order to determine technological limitations of the equipment as well as the ease of use and availability of features. This study allowed for the design of scanning procedures in order to evaluate the extent of damage caused by an MMOD impact. Lastly, comparisons were drawn between the different pieces of COTS software and a recommendation is made based on each device s capability.

Violette, Daniel P.↗

Optimal Force Control of Vibro-Impact Systems for Autonomous Drilling Applications

The need to maintain optimal energy efficiency is critical during the drilling operations performed on future and current planetary rover missions (see figure). Specifically, this innovation seeks to solve the following problem. Given a spring-loaded percussive drill driven by a voice-coil motor, one needs to determine the optimal input voltage waveform (periodic function) and the optimal hammering period that minimizes the dissipated energy, while ensuring that the hammer-to-rock impacts are made with sufficient (user-defined) impact velocity (or impact energy). To solve this problem, it was first observed that when voice-coil-actuated percussive drills are driven at high power, it is of paramount importance to ensure that the electrical current of the device remains in phase with the velocity of the hammer. Otherwise, negative work is performed and the drill experiences a loss of performance (i.e., reduced impact energy) and an increase in Joule heating (i.e., reduction in energy efficiency). This observation has motivated many drilling products to incorporate the standard bang-bang control approach for driving their percussive drills. However, the bang-bang control approach is significantly less efficient than the optimal energy-efficient control approach solved herein. To obtain this solution, the standard tools of classical optimal control theory were applied. It is worth noting that these tools inherently require the solution of a two-point boundary value problem (TPBVP), i.e., a system of differential equations where half the equations have unknown boundary conditions. Typically, the TPBVP is impossible to solve analytically for high-dimensional dynamic systems. However, for the case of the spring-loaded vibro-impactor, this approach yields the exact optimal control solution as the sum of four analytic functions whose coefficients are determined using a simple, easy-to-implement algorithm. Once the optimal control waveform is determined, it can be used optimally in the context of both open-loop and closed-loop control modes (using standard realtime control hardware).

Aldrich, Jack B.↗

Hypervelocity Impact of Unstressed and Stressed Titanium in a Whipple Configuration in Support of the Orion Crew Exploration Vehicle Service Module Propellant Tanks

Hypervelocity impacts were performed on six unstressed and six stressed titanium coupons with aluminium: shielding in order to assess the effects of the partial penetration damage on the post impact micromechanical properties of titanium and on the residual strength after impact. This work is performed in support of the defInition of the penetration criteria of the propellant and oxidizer tanks dome surfaces for the service module of the crew exploration vehicle where such a criterion is based on testing and analyses rather than on historical precedence. The objective of this work is to assess the effects of applied biaxial stress on the damage dynamics and morphology. The crater statistics revealed minute differences between stressed and unstressed coupon damage. The post impact residual stress analyses showed that the titanium strength properties were generally unchanged for the unstressed coupons when compared with undamaged titanium. However, high localized strains were shown near the craters during the tensile tests.

Nahra, Henry K.↗

Ringing After a High-Energy Collision: Ambipolar Oscillations During Impact Plasma Expansion

High-velocity impacts on the Moon and other airless bodies deliver energy and material to the lunar surface and exosphere. The target and i mpactor material may become vaporized and ionized to form a collision al plasma that expands outward and eventually becomes collisionless. In the present work, kinetic simulations of the later collision less stage of impact plasma expansion are performed. Attention is paid to characterizing "ambipolar oscillations" in which thermodynamic distur bances propagate outward to generate "ringing" within the expanding e lectron cloud, which could radiate an electromagnetic signature of lo cal plasma conditions. The process is not unlike a beam-plasma intera ction, with the perturbing electron population in the present case ac ting as a highly thermal "beam" that resonates along the expanding de nsity gradient. Understanding the electromagnetic aspects of impact p lasma expansion could provide insight into the lasting effects of nat ural, impact-generated currents on airless surfaces and charging haza rds to human exploration infrastructure and instrumentation.

Zimmerman, M. I.↗

Charpy Impact Energy and Microindentation Hardness of 60-NITINOL

60-NITINOL (60 wt.% Ni 40 wt.% Ti) is being studied as a material for advanced aerospace components. The Charpy impact energy and microindentation hardness has been studied for this material, fabricated by vacuum induction skull melting (casting) and by hot isostatic pressing. Test specimens were prepared in various hardened and annealed heat treatment conditions. The average impact energy ranged from 0.33 to 0.49J for the hardened specimens while the annealed specimens had impact energies ranging from 0.89 to 1.18J. The average hardness values of the hardened specimens ranged from 590 to 676 HV while that of the annealed specimens ranged from 298 to 366 HV, suggesting an inverse relationship between impact energy and hardness. These results are expected to provide guidance in the selection of heat treatment processes for the design of mechanical components.

Stanford, Malcolm K.↗

Hydrocarbon Rocket Technology Impact Forecasting

Ever since the Apollo program ended, the development of launch propulsion systems in the US has fallen drastically, with only two new booster engine developments, the SSME and the RS-68, occurring in the past few decades.1 In recent years, however, there has been an increased interest in pursuing more effective launch propulsion technologies in the U.S., exemplified by the NASA Office of the Chief Technologist s inclusion of Launch Propulsion Systems as the first technological area in the Space Technology Roadmaps2. One area of particular interest to both government agencies and commercial entities has been the development of hydrocarbon engines; NASA and the Air Force Research Lab3 have expressed interest in the use of hydrocarbon fuels for their respective SLS Booster and Reusable Booster System concepts, and two major commercially-developed launch vehicles SpaceX s Falcon 9 and Orbital Sciences Antares feature engines that use RP-1 kerosene fuel. Compared to engines powered by liquid hydrogen, hydrocarbon-fueled engines have a greater propellant density (usually resulting in a lighter overall engine), produce greater propulsive force, possess easier fuel handling and loading, and for reusable vehicle concepts can provide a shorter turnaround time between launches. These benefits suggest that a hydrocarbon-fueled launch vehicle would allow for a cheap and frequent means of access to space.1 However, the time and money required for the development of a new engine still presents a major challenge. Long and costly design, development, testing and evaluation (DDT&E) programs underscore the importance of identifying critical technologies and prioritizing investment efforts. Trade studies must be performed on engine concepts examining the affordability, operability, and reliability of each concept, and quantifying the impacts of proposed technologies. These studies can be performed through use of the Technology Impact Forecasting (TIF) method. The Technology Impact Forecasting method is a normative forecasting technique that allows the designer to quantify the effects of adding new technologies on a given design. This method can be used to assess and identify the necessary technological improvements needed to close the gap that exists between the current design and one that satisfies all constraints imposed on the design. The TIF methodology allows for more design knowledge to be brought to the earlier phases of the design process, making use of tools such as Quality Function Deployments, Morphological Matrices, Response Surface Methodology, and Monte Carlo Simulations.2 This increased knowledge allows for more informed decisions to be made earlier in the design process, resulting in shortened design cycle time. This paper will investigate applying the TIF method, which has been widely used in aircraft applications, to the conceptual design of a hydrocarbon rocket engine. In order to reinstate a manned presence in space, the U.S. must develop an affordable and sustainable launch capability. Hydrocarbon-fueled rockets have drawn interest from numerous major government and commercial entities because they offer a low-cost heavy-lift option that would allow for frequent launches1. However, the development of effective new hydrocarbon rockets would likely require new technologies in order to overcome certain design constraints. The use of advanced design methods, such as the TIF method, enables the designer to identify key areas in need of improvement, allowing one to dial in a proposed technology and assess its impact on the system. Through analyses such as this one, a conceptual design for a hydrocarbon-fueled vehicle that meets all imposed requirements can be achieved.

Stuber, Eric↗