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Facility Cybersecurity Framework Best Practices

Federal facilities are increasingly adopting automation and connecting to the Internet creating an energy-internet-of-things environment that converges operational technology (OT) and information technology (IT). Today's buildings increasingly weave together networked sensors and cyber and physical systems that enable data to be collected, aggregated, exchanged, stored and monetized in new ways. Building technological advances have created new energy technology, services, markets and value creation opportunities (e.g. transactive energy, two-way grid communications, machine learning, and increased use of renewable and distributed energy resources). But as larger data sets are being exchanged at faster speeds between an increasing number of OT systems, it becomes more difficult to protect the security of the data lifecycle and the physical equipment it interacts with. These challenges are especially difficult to overcome because the economic and environmental gain (interoperability, big data, social networks and ubiquitous information sharing) are driving these prominent trends in the digital age. Often cybersecurity is an afterthought. The U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Federal Energy Management Program (FEMP) funded the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) to develop various cybersecurity tools, trainings, and reports to aid federal facility managers – and other building owners and operators – in better applying frameworks and lessons learned from the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) Cybersecurity Framework (CSF), risk management framework (RMF), DOE’s cybersecurity capability maturity model (C2M2), and a wide variety of industry best practices and guidance documents (i.e., NIST 800 series, Department of Defense United Facilities Criteria). This set of tools, collectively known as the FEMP Facility-Related Control System Cyber Toolkit (FRCS Cyber Toolkit)2, is focused on cybersecurity concerns from facility-related control systems and other operational technology (OT), such as industrial control systems (ICS). The FRCS Cyber Toolkit can be applied across six of the sixteen critical infrastructure sectors designated by the Department of Homeland Security, including government facilities, healthcare and public health, commercial facilities (e.g., public assembly, offices, lodging), financial services (e.g., banking and insurance), emergency services (e.g., fire and police stations), and information technology. With increasingly converged IT and OT systems, it is crucial to address OT cybersecurity considerations and assess how the seam of these two systems could impact the overall cybersecurity posture of a facility. The objective of this report is to provide an overview of the best possible method to use FRCS Cyber Toolkit (section 2.0) and distilled cybersecurity best practices for the federal facilities to address growing non-linear cyber threats (section 3.0). Recommendations in this document are aggregated from several NIST and other documents (see Appendix A for additional details).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Combined Cycle Integrated Thermal Energy Storage “CiTES” (Final Scientific/Technical Report)

The Phase I of this project confirmed the technical feasibility of a Combined Cycle integrated Thermal Energy Storage “CiTES” system, calculated the key performance parameters like power efficiency and costs, and proved its commercial value with full-year simulations for several US electricity markets with high degree of variable renewable generation and volatile hourly electricity prices. The core element of this project is the Electro Thermal Energy Storage (ETES) technology from Siemens Gamesa Renewable Energy GmbH, using thermally stable and inexpensive volcanic rocks as storage material and air as heat transfer medium. This technology is backed by more than 10 years of experience and a 440MMBTU (130MWh-th) pilot plant in Hamburg, Germany, which is in operation since 2019. The integration of this thermal storage in an existing combined cycle power plant (CCPP) is typical power plant technology without any major technology risks. It allows the storage of inexpensive renewable energy during times of surplus renewable generation and the discharge of this energy in times of high energy demand when the fossil plant is in operation. This supplements the fossil power generation with CO2-emission-free energy. The secondary effect of the CiTES system is that a small part of the stored thermal energy is used to keep the heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) and steam turbine (ST) of the combined cycle power plant in hot and ready-to-start condition. This enables the plant to start rapidly when fossil generation is required to satisfy demand as soon variable generation drops off in the evenings or during cloud cover and calm wind periods. Without pre-warming of the HRSG and ST, the CCPP would need several hours for a cold or warm start, burn a lot of gas and release high NOx emissions during start and wouldn’t be able to use the short times of high energy prices in an efficient or economical manner. The economic parameters of CiTES were determined by a full year “8760” simulation using a data set calculation for each of the hours of the year, and historical electricity and gas prices. For consistency, the simulations were focused on the pre-COVID year 2019. The financially most attractive markets were in the Energy Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) region, which allowed substantial value generation with arbitrage (charge with cheap energy during renewable surplus times and discharge when energy is needed and expensive). The improvement of flexibility with the CiTES system by pre-heating and warm-keeping of the CCPP allowed for additional power generation during short time periods when demand is high but renewable generation is down; when the hourly energy prices are highest in these markets. The simulations are based on 2019 data, when ERCOT had 27GW of installed photovoltaic (PV) and wind generation. They showed that the created revenue with the prototypically sized CiTES system of 1,000MMBTU (300MWh-th) falls a little bit short of what is expected from a commercially viable investment. The system has optimization opportunities for cost reduction and increased effectiveness which will be realized during a potential Phase II Pre-FEED study following this project. Furthermore, it is safe to assume that a lot of renewable generation capacity will be added all over the US in the coming years. As an example, ERCOT is predicting to more than double its renewable generation from 27GW in 2019 to a forecasted 63GW in 2023. This will increase the amount of renewable overproduction exponentially. This rapid increase of local overproduction and the need to curtail renewable generation is well documented by the California ISO (www.CAISO.com / managing oversupply). However, the simulations also revealed a weakness in the structure of the electricity markets in the US. More specifically, when electricity prices are very low and approaching negative levels, the owners of Variable Renewable Energy (VRE) will curtail a part of their facility to stabilize the price by reducing supply. This results in a situation in which storage facilities, which are integrated in existing fossil assets and don’t have the behind-the-meter benefit of a VRE, won’t be able to purchase low cost – otherwise curtailed – renewable energy off the grid. A special tariff, which motivates VRE owners to sell otherwise curtailed renewable energy to storage facilities (Hydrogen, thermal, pumped hydro, etc.) can solve this issue. The implementation of such a regulating tariff by Independent System Operators, thus avoiding renewable curtailment, is a pre condition for successful commercialization for renewable energy storage technologies. With this advancement of design and technology and improvements in the market environment, it can be expected that the Combined Cycle integrated Thermal Energy Storage proves itself as an important innovation to keep highly efficient, natural gas-based power generation economically successful and relevant for the power industry in the United States of America.

Wolf, Thorsten↗

Real-Time, Simultaneous Soil Water Content and Meteorological Data Measurement to Support TRACER over Harris County, Texas (Field Campaign Report: Part I)

The main purpose of this project was to provide ground-truth and satellite-based soil water content data in the Houston, Texas, area to support the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility’s 2022 field campaign, the Tracking Aerosol Convection Interactions ExpeRiment (TRACER). This involved installing four soil monitoring stations at different locations in the Houston area, two of which were part of the ARM facility and two were ancillary. The two stations associated directly with ARM were installed alongside other facilities managed and maintained by the TRACER research team during the intensive operational period (IOP), one located at the La Porte, Texas airport and the other near Guy, Texas. Data from these stations were assimilated with similar data collected by the Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) to improve the spatial coverage of the real-time monitoring network. The ground-truth data were compared to the satellite-based (National Aeronautics and Space Administration [NASA]’s Soil Moisture Active Passive [SMAP] mission) data in the TRACER area of interest, and analyzed further to nowcast gridded data over the Houston area. The nowcasted, gridded data product was made available to TRACER researchers for use in climate and land-atmosphere interaction modeling that can help understand formation and persistence of convective storms in dense urban areas, and predict possible environmental events such as floods.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Case Study about Energy and Cost Impacts for Different Community Scenarios Using a Community-Scale Building Energy Modeling Tool

The United States building sector consumed approximately 75% of electricity in 2019. By implementing renewable energy technologies and control strategies into buildings, future buildings will serve as energy generators as well as consumers. To accommodate this transition, communications among buildings and between buildings and the grid could provide more possibilities to optimize the energy performance of buildings. This paper develops a community-scale building energy model tool and conducts a case study adopting behind-the-meter distributed energy resources, sharing energy in different buildings, and using different electricity tariff structures. Three scenarios are studied: (1) electricity only supplied by the grid, (2) photovoltaic (PV) panels installed on and available to some but not all buildings, and (3) a connected community. To consider the impacts of locations and energy tariffs, this paper selects four cities and three electricity tariffs to evaluate the energy and cost performances of these three scenarios. The results show that the PV panels in Scenario 2 reduce 25% to 33% of the community-level electricity consumption and 20% to 30% of the community-level electricity cost compared with Scenario 1 in all studied locations and energy tariffs. By considering power management in the connected community (Scenario 3), the electricity consumption and cost can be further reduced by 6% to 7% and 5% to 11%, respectively, compared with Scenario 2.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

A Spacebased Ocean Surface Exchange Data Analysis System

Emerging technologies have provided unprecedented opportunities to transform information into knowledge and disseminate them in a much faster, cheaper, and userfriendly mode. We have set up a system to produce and disseminate high level (gridded) ocean surface wind data from the NASA Scatterometer and European Remote Sensing missions. The data system is being expanded to produce real-time gridded ocean surface winds from an improved sensor SeaWinds on the Quikscat Mission. The wind field will be combined with hydrologic parameters from the Tropical Rain Measuring Mission to monitor evolving weather systems and natural hazard in real time. It will form the basis for spacebased Ocean Surface Exchange Data Analysis System (SOSEDAS) which will include the production of ocean surface momentum, heat, and water fluxes needed for interdisciplinary studies of ocean-atmosphere interaction. Various commercial or non-commercial software tools have been compared and selected in terms of their ability in database management, remote data accessing, graphical interface, data quality, storage needs and transfer speed, etc. Issues regarding system security and user authentication, distributed data archiving and accessing, strategy to compress large-volume geophysical and satellite data/image. and increasing transferring speed are being addressed. A simple and easy way to access information and derive knowledge from spacebased data of multiple missions is being provided. The evolving 'knowledge system' will provide relevant infrastructure to address Earth System Science, make inroads in educating an informed populace, and illuminate decision and policy making.

Tang, Wenqing↗

Real-Time Visualization of Spacecraft Telemetry for the GLAST and LRO Missions

GlastCam and LROCam are closely-related tools developed at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center for real-time visualization of spacecraft telemetry, developed for the Gamma-Ray Large Area Space Telescope (GLAST) and Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) missions, respectively. Derived from a common simulation tool, they use related but different architectures to ingest real-time spacecraft telemetry and ground predicted ephemerides, and to compute and display features of special interest to each mission in its operational environment. We describe the architectures of GlastCam and LROCam, the customizations required to fit into the mission operations environment, and the features that were found to be especially useful in early operations for their respective missions. Both tools have a primary window depicting a three-dimensional Cam view of the spacecraft that may be freely manipulated by the user. The scene is augmented with fields of view, pointing constraints, and other features which enhance situational awareness. Each tool also has another "Map" window showing the spacecraft's groundtrack projected onto a map of the Earth or Moon, along with useful features such as the Sun, eclipse regions, and TDRS satellite locations. Additional windows support specialized checkout tasks. One such window shows the star tracker fields of view, with tracking window locations and the mission star catalog. This view was instrumental for GLAST in quickly resolving a star tracker mounting polarity issue; visualization made the 180-deg mismatch immediately obvious. Full access to GlastCam's source code also made possible a rapid coarse star tracker mounting calibration with some on the fly code adjustments; adding a fine grid to measure alignment offsets, and introducing a calibration quaternion which could be adjusted within GlastCam without perturbing the flight parameters. This calibration, from concept to completion, took less than half an hour. Both GlastCam and LROCam were developed in the C language, with non-proprietary support libraries, for ease of customization and portability. This no-blackboxes aspect enables engineers to adapt quickly to unforeseen circumstances in the intense operations environment. GlastCam and LROCam were installed on multiple workstations in the operations support rooms, allowing independent use by multiple subsystems, systems engineers and managers, with negligible draw on telemetry system resources.

Stoneking, Eric T.↗

Cybersecurity Enhancement in Digital Substations: Hidden Markov Model-Based Smart Cyber Switching and Threat Response

The rising incidence of cyber-attacks on critical infrastructure and power grids poses significant threats to the stability and reliability of electrical substations, with potentially devastating consequences such as extended blackouts. This paper introduces an advanced cybersecurity framework aimed at safeguarding IEC 61850-based substations through the integration of software-defined networking (SDN) and digital twin (DT) technologies. The proposed DT-based framework employs smart cyber switching (SCS) for proactive threat mitigation and concurrent intelligent electronic device (CIED) for swift system restoration, thereby maintaining continuous operational integrity and robust cybersecurity defenses. Central to this framework is the adaptive port controller (APC), which enables dynamic port management to adapt to evolving threats, and an intrusion detection system (IDS) designed to detect and neutralize malicious attacks on IEC 61850-based sampled value (SV) and generic object-oriented substation event (GOOSE) messages within the substation’s communication network. Further, novel predictive intrusion detection and response (PIDR) algorithm is implemented on a digital substation (DS) to predict the best route to be taken by the attacker. The efficacy of these comprehensive cybersecurity frameworks is validated through rigorous simulations and a hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) testbed, showcasing the system’s ability to sustain substation operations amidst cyber-attacks.

Digital substation↗

Real-Time, Simultaneous Soil Water Content and Meteorological Data Measurement to Support TRACER over Harris County, Texas Field Campaign Report: Part II

The main purpose of this project was to provide ground-truth and satellite-based soil water content data in the Houston, Texas, area to support the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility’s 2022 field campaign, the Tracking Aerosol Convection Interactions ExpeRiment (TRACER). This involved installing four soil monitoring stations at different locations in the Houston area, two of which were part of the ARM facility and two were ancillary. The two stations associated directly with ARM were installed alongside other facilities managed and maintained by the TRACER research team during the intensive operational period (IOP), one located at the La Porte, Texas airport and the other located near Guy, Texas. Data from these stations were assimilated with similar data collected by the Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) to improve the spatial coverage of the real-time monitoring network. The ground-truth data were compared to the satellite-based (National Aeronautics and Space Administration [NASA]’s Soil Moisture Active Passive [SMAP] mission) data in the TRACER area of interest, and analyzed further to nowcast gridded data over the Houston area. The nowcasted, gridded data product was made available to TRACER researchers for use in climate and land-atmosphere interaction modeling that can help understand formation and persistence of convective storms in dense urban areas, and predict possible environmental events such as floods.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Western Sonoran Desert Water Resources: Evaluating Rock Pool Hydroperiod Fluctuation using Climate Variables to Inform Habitat Monitoring and Protection in the Western Sonoran Desert

Ephemeral freshwater rock pools, known as tinajas, have great biologic and cultural importance as sources of surface water in the western Sonoran Desert (WSD). Tinaja flooding and drying cycles, known as hydroperiods, vary based on meteorologic and climatologic conditions; however, a lack of extensive research relating climatic impacts to tinajas puts these critical ecosystems further at risk. The National Park Service (NPS) and the University of Arizona monitor the physical and ecological condition of tinajas in Organ Pipe Cactus National Monument (OPCNM), AZ, using resource-intensive strategies: in situ trail cameras and direct measurements. To aid monitoring efforts, the NASA DEVELOP team aimed to incorporate remote sensing into NPS strategies by analyzing spatiotemporal climate data and tinaja hydroperiods in OPCNM between 1979–2022. Using Aqua and Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometers (MODIS), University of Idaho Gridded Surface Meteorological Dataset (gridMET), and OpenET data, the team generated climatology maps and time series for OPCNM. The team compared these data to daily in situ hydroperiod observations from the University of Arizona between 2019–2022. Climate maps and time series showed increases in temperature and solar radiation (p<0.05), while analyses of in situ data showed correlations of hydroperiods with precipitation and evapotranspiration. End products identified high-risk tinajas and demonstrated that Earth observations can successfully be correlated with in situ hydroperiod observations. These results will support NPS efforts to prioritize water resource management and inform protocols driving the conservation of tinajas in OPCNM.

Anne Britton↗

Systems and methods for randomized, packet-based power management of conditionally-controlled loads and bi-directional distributed energy storage systems

The present disclosure provides a distributed and anonymous approach to demand response of an electricity system. The approach conceptualizes energy consumption and production of distributed-energy resources (DERs) via discrete energy packets that are coordinated by a cyber computing entity that grants or denies energy packet requests from the DERs. The approach leverages a condition of a DER, which is particularly useful for (1) thermostatically-controlled loads, (2) non-thermostatic conditionally-controlled loads, and (3) bi-directional distributed energy storage systems. In a first aspect of the present approach, each DER independently requests the authority to switch on for a fixed amount of time (i.e., packet duration). The coordinator determines whether to grant or deny each request based electric grid and/or energy or power market conditions. In a second aspect, bi-directional DERs, such as distributed-energy storage systems (DESSs) are further able to request to supply energy to the grid.

Frolik, Jeff↗

An Inventory of AI-ready Benchmark Data for US Fires, Heatwaves, and Droughts

Extreme weather events, including fires, heatwaves, and droughts, have significant impacts on earth, environmental, and energy systems. Mechanistic and predictive understanding, as well as probabilistic risk assessment of these extreme weather events, are crucial for detecting, planning for, and responding to these extremes. Records of extreme weather events provide an important data source for understanding present and future extremes, but the existing data needs preprocessing before it can be used for analysis. Moreover, there are many nonstandard metrics defining the levels of severity or impacts of extremes. In this study, we compile a comprehensive benchmark data inventory of extreme weather events, including fires, heatwaves, and droughts. The dataset covers the period from 2001 to 2020 with a daily temporal resolution and a spatial resolution of 0.5°×0.5° (~55km×55km) over the continental United States (CONUS), and a spatial resolution of 1km × 1km over the Pacific Northwest (PNW) region, together with the co-located and relevant meteorological variables. By exploring and summarizing the spatial and temporal patterns of these extremes in various forms of marginal, conditional, and joint probability distributions, we gain a better understanding of the characteristics of climate extremes. The resulting AI/ML-ready data products can be readily applied to ML-based research, fostering and encouraging AI/ML research in the field of extreme weather. This study can contribute significantly to the advancement of extreme weather research, aiding researchers, policymakers, and practitioners in developing improved preparedness and response strategies to protect communities and ecosystems from the adverse impacts of extreme weather events. Usage Notes We presented a long term (2001-2020) and comprehensive data inventory of historical extreme events with daily temporal resolution covering the separate spatial extents of CONUS (0.5°×0.5°) and PNW(1km×1km) for various applications and studies. The dataset with 0.5°×0.5° resolution for CONUS can be used to help build more accurate climate models for the entire CONUS, which can help in understanding long-term climate trends, including changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme events, predicting future extreme events as well as understanding the implications of extreme events on society and the environment. The data can also be applied for risk accessment of the extremes. For example, ML/AI models can be developed to predict wildfire risk or forecast HWs by analyzing historical weather data, and past fires or heateave , allowing for early warnings and risk mitigation strategies. Using this dataset, AI-driven risk assessment models can also be built to identify vulnerable energy and utilities infrastructure, imrpove grid resilience and suggest adaptations to withstand extreme weather events. The high-resolution 1km×1km dataset ove PNW are advantageous for real-time, localized and detailed applications. It can enhance the accuracy of early warning systems for extreme weather events, helping authorities and communities prepare for and respond to disasters more effectively. For example, ML models can be developed to provide localized HW predictions for specific neighborhoods or cities, enabling residents and local emergency services to take targeted actions; the assessment of drought severity in specific communities or watersheds within the PNW can help local authorities manage water resources more effectively.

Lin, Xinming↗

Chapter 7: Predictive Analytics in Future Power Systems: A Panorama and State-of-the-Art of Deep Learning Applications

The challenges surrounding the optimal operation of power systems are growing in various dimensions, due in part to increasingly distributed energy resources and a progression towards large-scale transportation electrification. Currently, the increasing uncertainties associated with both renewable energy generation and demand are largely being managed by increasing operational reserves - potentially at the cost of suboptimal economic conditions - in order to maintain the reliability of the system. This chapter looks at the big picture role of forecasting in power systems from generation to consumption and provides a comprehensive review of traditional approaches for forecasting generation and load in various contexts. This chapter then takes a deep dive into the state-of-the-art machine learning and deep learning approaches for power systems forecasting. Furthermore, a case study of multi-time-horizon solar irradiance forecasting using deep learning is discussed in detail. Smart grids form the backbone of the future interdependent networks. For addressing the challenges associated with the operations of smart grid, development and wide adoption of machine learning and deep learning algorithms capable of producing better forecasting accuracies is urgently needed. Along with exploring the implementation and benefits of these approaches, this chapter also considers the strengths and limitations of deep learning algorithms for power systems forecasting applications. This chapter, thus, provides a panoramic view of state-of-the-art of predictive analytics in power systems in the context of future smart grid operations.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

2018 Energy Storage Pricing Survey

Since grid energy storage is still a nascent industry, it is often difficult to obtain capital costs for various energy storage technologies. This type of information is required to perform an initial cost-benefit analysis related to a potential energy storage deployment, as well as to compare different energy storage technology options. The goal of this report is to summarize energy storage capital costs that were obtained from industry pricing surveys. The methodology breaks down the cost of an energy storage system into the following categories: the storage module; the balance of system; the power conversion system; the energy management system; and the engineering, procurement, and construction costs. Pricing data is presented for the following technologies: pumped hydro storage; compressed air energy storage; sodium battery storage; zinc battery storage; long duration flywheels; short duration flywheels; vanadium flow batteries; zinc bromide flow batteries; iron flow batteries; nickel batteries; lithium ion energy batteries; lithium ion power batteries; lead acid batteries; and advanced lead carbon batteries.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

High-resolution Hindcasts for U.S. Wave Energy Resource Characterization

The marine and hydrokinetic (MHK) industry is at an early stage of development and has the potential to play a significant role in diversifying the U.S. energy portfolio and reducing the U.S. carbon footprint. Wave energy is the largest among all the U.S. MHK energy resources, which include wave energy, ocean current, tidal-instream, ocean thermal energy conversion, and river-instream. Wave resource characterization is an essential step for regional wave energy assessments, Wave Energy Converter (WEC) project development, site selection and WEC design. The present paper provides an overview of a joint modelling effort by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and Sandia National Laboratories on high-resolution wave hindcasts to support the U.S. Department of Energy’s Water Power Technologies Office’s program of wave resource characterization, assessment and classifications in all US coastal regions. Topics covered include the modelling approach, model input requirements, model validation strategies, high performance computing resource requirements, model outputs and data management strategies. Examples of model setup and validation for different regions are provided along with application to development of classification systems, and analysis of regional wave climates. Lessons learned and technical challenges of the long-term, high-resolution regional wave hindcast are discussed.

Yang, Zhaoqing↗

Agricultural Breadbaskets Shift Poleward Given Adaptive Farmer Behavior Under Climate Change

Modern food production is spatially concentrated in global “breadbaskets”. A major unresolved question is whether these peak production regions will shift poleward as the climate warms, allowing some recovery of potential climaterelated losses. While agricultural impacts studies to date have focused on currently cultivated land, the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison Project (GGCMI) Phase 2 experiment allows us to assess changes in both yields and the location of peak productivity regions under warming. We examine crop responses under projected end-of-century warming using 7 process-based models simulating 5 major crops (maize, rice, soybeans, and spring and winter wheat) with a variety of adaptation strategies. We find that in no-adaptation cases, when planting date and cultivar choices are held fixed, regions of peak production remain stationary and yield losses can be severe, since growing seasons contract strongly with warming. When adaptations in management practices are allowed (cultivars that retain growing season length under warming and modified planting dates), peak productivity zones shift poleward and yield losses are largely recovered. While most growing-zone shifts are ultimately limited by geography, breadbaskets studied here move poleward over 600 km on average by end of the century under RCP8.5. These results suggest that agricultural impacts assessments can be strongly biased if restricted in spatial area or in the scope of adaptive behavior considered. Accurate evaluation of food security under climate change requires global modeling and careful treatment of adaptation strategies.

adaptation↗

DOE Challenges and Opportunities Associated with Accountable Nuclear Material Needs for Development and Commercialization of Fusion Nuclear Energy

Fusion energy represents a transformative opportunity to deliver a safe, plentiful, and carbon-free source of reliable primary power. In recent years, fusion research and development have accelerated significantly, particularly within the US, driven by decades of foundational public investment. Notably, in 2024 the US Department of Energy (DOE) established a comprehensive Fusion Energy Strategy aimed at collaborating with industry partners to enable the deployment of fusion power plants and grid integration by the 2030s. This strategy is chiefly implemented through the DOE Office of Science (SC) Fusion Energy Sciences program. This project was initiated to identify potential approaches for the Office of Environment, Safety, and Health (NA-ESH-12) within DOE’s National Nuclear Security Administration to begin engagement with the fusion community on future accountable material needs. The goal of the project is to inform and influence the supply of and demand for accountable nuclear materials as fusion energy is developed and commercialized. NA-ESH-12 must proactively engage with the fusion community regarding the production and management of accountable nuclear materials. Given the complexity and scale of materials required for research, pilot projects, and eventual commercial reactors, early coordination is vital. The project’s objective is to provide insights that will shape the supply and demand landscape for critical nuclear materials, ensuring that DOE is prepared to effectively support fusion energy development and commercialization. In FY 2025, an initial limited review was conducted to identify the status of the fusion energy community’s progress toward full-scale energy production and the need for accountable nuclear material. This included communications with SC, NA-ESH-12, Savannah River National Laboratory, and Oak Ridge National Laboratory, and attending the Rutgers University–sponsored Supply Chain Workshop: Scaling the Fusion Industry and the International Atomic Energy Agency’s Ninth DEMO Programme Workshop. The review to date indicates that the amounts of tritium, lithium-6, and deuterium required by the fusion industry will be dependent on fuel type, breeding technology, blankets, and R&D improvements. One concern is that the commercial sector does not have a sufficient supply chain to meet the demand for development and commercialization for fusion energy production. The supply and demand estimates for these materials should be routinely reviewed as fusion technologies mature.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Applying and validating the RANS-3D flow-solver for evaluating a subsonic serpentine diffuser geometry

Subsonic inlet ducts for advanced, high-performance aircraft are evolving towards complex three-dimensional shapes for reasons of overall integration and weight. These factors lead to diffuser geometries that may sacrifice inlet performance, unless careful attention to design details and boundary layer management techniques are employed. The ability of viscous computational fluid dynamic (CFD) analysis of such geometries to aid the aircraft configurator in this complex design problem is herein examined. The RANS-3D Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes solver is applied to model the complex flowfield occurring in a representative diffuser geometry and the solutions are compared to experimental results from a static test of the inlet duct. The computational results are shown to compare very favorably with experimental results over a range of mass flow rates, including those involving large amounts of separation in the diffuser. In addition, a novel grid topology is presented, and two turbulence models are evaluated in this study as part of the RANS-3D code.

Fletcher, Michael J.↗

Probabilistic Voltage Sensitivity based Preemptive Voltage Monitoring in Unbalanced Distribution Networks

With increasing penetration of renewable energy and active consumers, control and management of power distribution networks has become challenging. Renewable energy sources can cause random voltage fluctuations as their output power depends on weather conditions. Conventional voltage control schemes such as tap changers and capacitor banks lack the foresight required to quickly alleviate voltage violations. Thus, there is an urgent need for effective approaches for predicting and mitigating voltage violations as a result of random fluctuations in power injections. This work proposes a novel voltage monitoring approach based on low-complexity, data-driven probabilistic voltage sensitivity analysis. The usefulness of this work is not only in predicting voltage violations in unbalanced distribution grids, but also in opening up the door for optimal voltage control. Using system data and forecasts, the proposed approach predicts the distribution of system node voltages which is then used to to identify nodes that may violate the nominal operational limits with high probability. The method is tested on the IEEE 37 node distribution system considering integrated distributed solar energy sources. The method is validated against the classic load flow based method and offers over 95% accuracy in predicting voltage violations.

Abujubbeh, Mohammad↗